Forrester：2020年11大市場趨勢預測（英文版）(15頁).pdf

1、On The Precipice Of Far-Reaching Change PREDICTIONS 2020 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. FORR.COM/PREDICTIONS Reflecting on 2019 Forrester predicted that 2019 would be the year strategic vision converted to pragmatism. This was driven by the reality that bolder strategies depend on a stronger, more ad

2、aptive foundation a foundation that did not exist for most. Too many companies were saddled with technical and data debt, hampered by existing organizational silos, required to allocate more resources to the core tech stack, trying to understand a volatile competitive landscape, and struggling with

3、the execution of customer obsession. Those struggles manifested in plateaued CX performance, digital transformations that did not deliver the expected returns, and early efforts to capitalize on new technologies and models that took a technical, rather than operational, viability path. In 2019, many

4、 leaders took a step back and doubled down on the hard work of building a strategic, operational, and technical foundation able to adapt. They did this while steering the company to maximize customer, financial, and shareholder value. That strategy was prudent but not risk-free: Others that never ha

5、d to rebuild a foundation or were ahead of the game were able to allocate more resources to growth creating the risk of separation and playing a heavy game of catch-up in 2020. The larger risk may be market-based. While taking a step back to build foundation, those firms may have missed a closing wi

6、ndow of good economic times and deferred more aggressive strategies to an economic climate that is at best mixed and, at worst, recessionary. Upon reflection, we are looking at a time and place where foundational work is underway and companies both digitally native and traditional are better able to

7、 compete in what promises to be a turbulent (maybe raucous) 2020. Looking forward to 2020 Here is our take. 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. FORR.COM/PREDICTIONS If 2020 could be encapsulated into one word, that word would be energy. Consumer energy as consumers become more values-based, constructing p

8、ersonal ecosystems and forcing firms to take sides on social issues. Security energy as industrial and nation-state cyber risks surge and, in some cases, merge. Technology energy as automation, AI, and robotics move deeper into the organization, closer to the customer, and, more profoundly, into the

9、 very makeup and operations of the company. You get the point. Today most of that energy is potential not kinetic. Some changes havent happened yet but are causing serious corporate and human anxiety; some are early days showing just the first signs of impact; some are happening, but companies have

10、yet to respond in full. In one scenario, 2020 becomes the year companies convert on the potential energy built up in 2019 to move from prudent investments to breakout growth. In another scenario, recessionary fears become reality, the impact of Brexit goes well beyond the shores of England, and trad

11、e wars devolve into a breakdown of the global economy. And there are a number of scenarios in between. Our predictions for 2020 will move leaders attention to adaptability: the ability to understand and anticipate market dynamics and adapt and rapidly exploit opportunities, both big and small. Wheth

12、er dynamics enable breakout growth, protection of existing markets, or eking out small gains in market share, leaders will see and capitalize on possibilities by best predicting how 2020 will unfold. 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. Companies have focused on elevating self-centered benefits, like fast

13、shipping, to satisfy customers. How do customers feel about their world of convenience? By some measures, theyre less happy than they were 20 years ago. Human beings are social animals driven to make decisions based on their need for affiliation and the wider impact of their choices. Todays customer

14、s live in tumultuous times. Disinformation campaigns, social isolation, wealth inequality, climate change, and political unrest surround them. As a result, they want to align their purchases with their values. Consumers appreciate experiences that spark delight. They love experiences that spark hope

15、. This is not a new phenomenon but a trend that has slowly climbed from niche to mainstream. In 2017, 52% of consumers said they actively consider company values when making a purchase. That number continues to grow. While lower-income earners may not be able to buy in accordance with their values,

16、the desire for values alignment is steady across income brackets. In 2020, executives will attempt to give customers what they crave. The results will be mixed. Some companies will provoke ire by making surface-level commitments. Others will misjudge how to best express values. Companies that do suc

17、ceed will co-create values-driven experiences with customers and employees. Theyll pay careful attention to authenticity, both in the values they choose to express and how they express them. More than 55% of consumers will consider company values when making a buying decision. Consumers search for d

18、eeper meaning 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. Major brands including Johnson as a result, deepfakes alone will cost businesses over a quarter of a billion dollars. Deepfakes will cost businesses over a quarter of a billion dollars. Data and AI get weaponized 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. 2020 will be

19、a bad year for third-party data and a good year for marketers who take consumer privacy seriously. Consumers are deeply concerned with how their data is collected and used. A barrage of news about data breaches, government surveillance, and corporate misconduct has soured consumer sentiment on curre

20、nt data practices. The backlash has begun, and more people are taking active measures to protect their privacy. Forrester predicts that privacy class-action lawsuits will increase by 300%. Big tech firms such as Apple and Mozilla are providing consumers with new tools that shut out data collection.

21、Anti-surveillance startups will receive funding. New regulations will be handed down. Regardless of whether it happens via tech, sentiment, lawsuit, or regulation, the result will be the same: Marketers will no longer be able to rely on aggregated third-party data to target consumers. In 2020, we pr

22、edict that some marketers will get ahead of the curve by curbing their reliance on third-party data. Marketers will move away from laborious and often- unwanted personalization efforts. Instead, theyll seek to authentically connect with customers through targeted experiences. Organizations will shif

23、t 10% of their budget to influencer marketing. Values strategies will become more prevalent, and five Fortune 500 brands will seek B-Corp certification. Privacy class-action lawsuits will increase by 300%. Privacy concerns gain steam 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. 2020 marks a significant year for th

24、e future of employment. Automation will change the composition of the job market and raise global economic issues of income distribution and wage stagnation. Automation will replace, on net, 1.06 million jobs from cubicle, coordinator, and function-specific knowledge worker personas in 2020. By cont

25、rast, work personas that require intuition, empathy, and physical and mental agility, including cross-domain knowledge workers, teachers/explainers, and digital elites, will add 331,500 net jobs in 2020. Beyond the numbers, automations impact on the workforce is both expected and unexpected. Take cu

26、stomer service Forresters Customer Experience Index (CX Index) reveals that customer service is the most important driver category of customer experience quality across most industries and markets. We repeat: Human channels still matter. So while contact centers will reduce their quality assurance s

27、taff by 40% due to automation, “agent whisperer” technologies will be leveraged to help customer service reps find task-critical information and enhance the customer experience. This will require an upleveling of skills. In the end, there will be fewer call center employees, but those who remain wil

28、l have to be higher-skilled and higher-paid. Folding automation into the enterprise will not be without backlash: Unsurprisingly, employees are wary of automation. Very few firms have invested in prepping employees for the future of work what it means to be working with, alongside, and potentially f

29、or automation. We expect a major strike will cause a PR nightmare for at least one Fortune 500 company. Anti-automation backlash will cause a PR nightmare for at least one Fortune 500 company. Automation reshapes the workforce 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. If you thought that weve seen the aftermath

30、 of regulations such as GDPR and the CCPA, think again. Regulatory bodies will gain steam impacting and shaping markets, in a very real way, in 2020. The UKs Information Commissioners Office (ICO) has already issued a report stating that current real-time bidding (RTB) processes in programmatic adve

31、rtising miss the mark on three major GDPR requirements: consent, transparency, and data leakage. Layer on the CCPA which requires that organizations protect personal data such as IP address and device data and share the data only with third parties with whom theyve contracted and the whole RTB proce

32、ss is effectively a data breach. Adtech vendors will be forced to use anonymized or aggregated data in their solutions, upending digital advertising as we know it today. Along the same lines, GDPR is forcing B2B enterprises to do a forensic examination of their supply chains and ecosystems. Companie

33、s that use enterprise customer data to improve the experiences of B2B clients of their products and services will see organizations choosing to opt out of data sharing due to concerns about anonymization, privacy, and accidental disclosure. In fact, 20% of enterprise customers will prohibit the use

34、of their data for AI in 2020. Regulators such as the UKs ICO and the Federal Trade Commission will also take action against firms using dark patterns. These dark patterns will earn several brands fines, remediation, and bad press. The need for compliance will spur investment in regulatory tech (regt

35、ech). In the first three quarters of 2019, regtech scored $4.6 billion in funding at a year-over-year growth rate of 103% with no signs of slowing down. Regulation will upend two major areas of the marketing ecosystem: third-party data and adtech. Regulation makes and breaks markets 2019 Forrester R

36、esearch, Inc. In 2020, venture capitalists (VCs) will increase their scrutiny of startups. Expect downward pressure on deal sizes as investors seek out the new hottest thing in Silicon Valley: profitability. It used to be every investors dream to get in on the ground floor of a company poised to bec

37、ome a unicorn (i.e., a privately held company with a valuation in excess of $1 billion), so VCs flocked to companies with big dreams and charismatic leaders. But now VCs are feeling the pain from a tumultuous 2019 marked by high-profile scandals and disappointing IPOs. As a result, investors are gro

38、wing weary of razzle-dazzle and disruptor lingo. This doesnt mean the bottom is falling out of the startup market far from it. Instead, VC money will flow toward startups with pragmatic business plans and clearer paths to profitability. These companies are poised to become the new unicorns. Overall

39、VC funding will plateau, but not every market will fall flat. The blockchain bubble will burst, an early victim of the mindset shift in Silicon Valley. Despite high levels of investment, the world of blockchain (and especially cryptocurrency) remains highly speculative, with scalable business-ready

40、solutions few and far between. AI funding will start to cool as the market saturates and as exuberance gives way to a push for results. Meanwhile, the inherently pragmatic regulatory technology category will see its funding double yet again. Overall VC funding will plateau, but not every market will

41、 fall flat. For VCs, profitability becomes the new unicorn 2019 Forrester Research, Inc. As we enter 2020, we are on the precipice of far-reaching change. The foundational work accomplished in 2019 is setting the stage for leaders and firms to better adapt and capitalize on opportunities both big an

42、d small. These opportunities are likely charged with energy from dynamics ranging from the values-based consumer to security threats, emerging technologies, and new organizational structures. Explore these dynamics further with Forrester thought leaders in our Predictions 2020 webinar. At Forrester,

43、 we are on your side to help convert on that potential energy: to see what is changing and what it means, to advise on what you should do about it, and to guide you on how best to move forward and take action. Let us know how we can help. For more information on the data and research that underpins these predictions, visit or email us at . Convert on 2020s potential Follow Forrester: Become a client: Explore more predictions content: VISIT PREDICTIONS HUB CONTACT US