硅谷銀行（SVB）：2019年第二季度經濟報告（英文版）（33頁）.pdf

1、Quarterly Economic Report Inside views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business health Q2 2019 0419-0016MS-033120 SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20192 2 Quarterly Economic Report: Q2 2019 3 Thoughts From the Desk 4 Domestic Economy 11 Global Economy 1

2、7 Central Banks 23 Markets and Performance 0419-0016MS-033120 Thoughts From the Desk SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20193 3 After a turbulent end to 2018, the first quarter of 2019 bounced back with financial conditions improving and volatility easing. Major US equity indices re

3、bounded from negative territory with an average return of almost 14 percent. Meanwhile, the yield curve compressed by 2027 bps beyond one year as the Fed shifted to a more dovish stance, forecasting no further rate increases in 2019 and one in 2020. However, market participants anticipate the next m

4、ove may be a rate cut as the economic outlook continues to be clouded by slower global growth, uncertainty about international trade and muted inflation. US growth in Q4 moderated as tailwinds of tax cuts have faded, and Q1 growth is expected to be lower due to the seasonal effects of weather, the g

5、overnment shutdown and uncertainty about trade policy. The bright spot of the US economy, the labor market, continues to be on firm footing. Inflation has been muted recently, trending slightly below the Feds target. Globally, economies continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Expectations are for

6、 economic activity to improve in the latter half of the year as policy uncertainties are clarified and accommodative monetary policies provide economic stimulus. Consumption continues to support the global economy despite ongoing trade discussions, which are expected to slow growth. As the year prog

7、resses, economic data will provide more information regarding the health of the economy and the direction of the Feds next rate move. Globally, accommodative central banks will help support growth as policy issues continue to be an ongoing negotiation. In light of the dynamic market environment, inv

8、estment strategies will incorporate the shape of the yield curve, central bank monetary policy, the global growth outlook and the health of credit fundamentals. We anticipate a year of greater volatility, and advocate for frequent and thorough evaluation of investment options to help clients navigat

9、e market dynamics and meet their investment objectives. 4 4 Domestic Economy SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 2019 0419-0016MS-033120 Overview SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20195 5 Economic data in the first quarter was mixed, showing signs that the US econom

10、y is slowing as the effects of the 2017 tax cuts fade. As expected, in light of the moderating data, the Fed revised forecasts downward anticipating no further interest rate increases in 2019 and only one in 2020. In addition, the Fed announced plans to reduce the balance sheet unwind starting in Ma

11、y and ending it in September. At the current federal funds rate, the Fed believes it is at a neutral range where the economy should remain stable. The final quarter of 2018 showed that economic growth moderated to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent the prior quarter. Growth in Q4 was driven by consumption

12、 and business investment, while government spending and net exports weighed it down. Headwinds continue for 2019 as the effects of tax reform sunset, the global slowdown persists and trade negotiations continue to add to the uncertainty. A review of the labor market shows that while job growth in Q1

13、 2019 averaged a healthy 180,000 jobs per month, passing factors such as inclement weather and the aftermath of the government shutdown resulted in a soft patch of economic data. The housing market continues to moderate with home price growth decelerating on a year-over-year basis, mainly driven by

14、a drop in prices in metro areas. Inflation has been muted, recently falling below the Feds 2 percent target and supporting the Feds stance to hold rates unchanged in 2019. In addition, while oil prices have risen due to geopolitical events affecting supply, the Fed mainly focuses on core inflation,

15、which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy. Domestic economy 0419-0016MS-033120 The final quarter of 2018 showed that economic growth moderated to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent the prior The final quarter of 2018 showed that economic growth moderated to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent the pr

16、ior quarter. Growth quarter. Growth in Q4 was driven by consumption and business investment, while government spending and in Q4 was driven by consumption and business investment, while government spending and net exports net exports slowed it slowed it down. Overall, growth for 2018 came in at 2.9

17、percent, still above trend and higher than down. Overall, growth for 2018 came in at 2.9 percent, still above trend and higher than the 20the 20- -year average of 2.2 percent. Headwinds continue year average of 2.2 percent. Headwinds continue in in 2019 as the effects of tax reform 2019 as the effec

18、ts of tax reform fade, fade, the global the global slowdown persists and trade negotiations continue to slowdown persists and trade negotiations continue to add to the uncertaintyadd to the uncertainty. . SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20196 6 GDP: Growth moderates GDP and Compo

19、nents Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 3/31/2019. GDP values shown in legend are percent change vs. prior quarter, on an annualized basis. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2

20、017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018 Percent changePercent change Personal consumptionGross private domestic investmentNet exportsGovernmentGDP 0419-0016MS-033120 SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20197 7 Consumption: Consumer activity wanes Consumer activity slowed in Q4, increa

21、sing only 2.5 percent vs. 3.5 percent the prior quarter. Meanwhile, households Consumer activity slowed in Q4, increasing only 2.5 percent vs. 3.5 percent the prior quarter. Meanwhile, households maintained healthy balance sheets with a stable ratio of debt to disposable income. Momentum in retail s

22、ales has maintained healthy balance sheets with a stable ratio of debt to disposable income. Momentum in retail sales has slowed; however, Q1 data looks better than expected with improvements in auto sales and increases in sales through slowed; however, Q1 data looks better than expected with improv

23、ements in auto sales and increases in sales through online retailers. online retailers. Consumption Overview Sources: Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 3/31/2019. Retail and Food Services Sales 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 0 1 2 3 4 5 20112012201320142015201620172018 PercentPercent Percent

24、Percent Personal consumptionHousehold debt to disposable income ratio 5 10 15 20 25 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Vehicle sales Vehicle sales ( (units in units in millionsmillions) ) Retail and food services sales Retail and food ser

25、vices sales ($ ($ in billionsin billions) ) Sales excluding vehiclesVehicle sales 0419-0016MS-033120 Employment Landscape -5 0 5 10 -300 0 300 600 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 PercentPercent Jobs (units in thousands)Jobs (units in thousands) Non-farm payrollUnemployment rate SVB Asset Ma

26、nagement | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20198 8 Employment: Solid footing While job While job growth in growth in Q1 2019 Q1 2019 averaged averaged 180,000 180,000 jobs per jobs per month, there was a deceleration due to passing factors month, there was a deceleration due to passing factors such as

27、inclement such as inclement weather and the aftermath of the government weather and the aftermath of the government shutdown that attributed to only 20,000 jobs shutdown that attributed to only 20,000 jobs added in February. added in February. Overall, the labor market continues on solid footing wit

28、h the unemployment Overall, the labor market continues on solid footing with the unemployment rate at rate at a a 5050- -year year low of 3.8 percent and the labor force participation rate for low of 3.8 percent and the labor force participation rate for primeprime- -age workers age workers maintain

29、ing a healthy level. maintaining a healthy level. Labor Force Participation Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 4/8/2019. 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 60 62 64 66 68 70 200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Percent Perc

30、ent Labor force participation rateLabor force participation rate of 25- to 54-year olds 0419-0016MS-033120 SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20199 9 US Housing: Price deceleration Home price growth has decelerated on a Home price growth has decelerated on a yearyear- -overover- -ye

31、ar year basis, basis, mainly mainly driven by a drop in prices in metro areas. driven by a drop in prices in metro areas. Despite the deceleration, prices should continue to be buoyed by limited inventory. Despite the deceleration, prices should continue to be buoyed by limited inventory. HoweverHow

32、ever, the fall in mortgage , the fall in mortgage rates that started in Q4 continued into Q2, helping to improve home affordability and spur refinancing. rates that started in Q4 continued into Q2, helping to improve home affordability and spur refinancing. Home Sales and Supply Sources: Bloomberg,

33、Standard maintain balance sheet Bank rate: 0.75% QE purchases ended; no change to holdings: 435B gilts 10B corporate bonds Fed funds target range: 2.25% to 2.5% Interest on excess reserves: 2.4% Balance sheet reduction program to end in September Mild inflation and decelerating growth are affording

34、major central banks time to assess developments before Mild inflation and decelerating growth are affording major central banks time to assess developments before taking any new action. While employment conditions remain stable, political developments, trade policy changes taking any new action. Whi

35、le employment conditions remain stable, political developments, trade policy changes and the trailing effects of reversing years of monetary stimulus will push some central banks to an easing bias.and the trailing effects of reversing years of monetary stimulus will push some central banks to an eas

36、ing bias. Sources: Bank of Japan, Peoples Bank of China, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve Bank and Bloomberg. Data as of 3/29/2019. SteadySteady UNEMPLOYMENTINFLATIONGDPBENCHMARK RATE 2222SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 2019 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% -0.1% 3.8% 1.5% 6

37、.4% 4.4% 7.8% 1.5% 1.1% -0.4% 3.9% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 3.8% 1.8% 3.0% 2.5% ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT JapanChinaEurozoneUKUS 2323 Markets and Performance SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q1 2019 0419-0016MS-033120 Overview SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 20192424 Financial mark

38、ets rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 as the fears that drove the markets lower in the fourth quarter of 2018 have somewhat eased. The US government reopened from the shutdown, the US and China are coming to the table to work a deal to end the trade war, the Fed has indicated no interest rate h

39、ikes this year, and worries about a US slowdown have diminished. In Q1, the US Treasury curve continued to flatten and even invert in certain spots, while spread products rallied and generated positive total returns. While corporate debt has been on the rise and reached a new high relative to US GDP

40、, the debt level for large companies remains significantly below what was seen during the financial crisis, especially net of cash and relative to the ability to pay. Despite weakening economic outlooks, corporate credit fundamentals remained stable over the past 12 months. Markets and performance 0

41、419-0016MS-033120 Broad Market Performance 2525 All returns above are on a total return basis. YTD 2019 returns are on an aggregate basis up to 3/31/2019. US Aggregate refers to Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index; US High Yield refers to Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Index; Gold refers to S

42、Crude Oil refers to Spot West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil; Wilshire refers to Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index; REIT refers to MSCI US REIT Index; S&P 500 refers to S&P 500 Index. Asset class returnsAsset class returns SVB Asset Management | Quarterly Economic Report Q2 2019 Sources: Thomson Reuter

43、s and Bloomberg Barclays indices. Past index performance is no guarantee of future results. 2010201020112011201220122013201320142014201520152016201620172017201820182019 YTD2019 YTD Gold 29.67% Gold 10.23% REIT 16.47% Wilshire 33.06% REIT 28.24% S&P 500 1.40% Crude Oil 44.80% S&P 500 21.80% US Aggreg

44、ate US Aggregate 0.01%0.01% Crude Oil 33.30% REIT 26.97% Crude Oil 8.15% Wilshire 16.05% S&P 500 32.39% S&P 500 13.69% REIT 1.30% US High Yield US High Yield 17.13%17.13% Wilshire 21.00% US High Yield US High Yield - -2.08%2.08% REIT 15.90% Wilshire 17.18% US Aggregate US Aggregate 7.84%7.84% S&P 50

45、0 16.00% US High Yield US High Yield 7.44%7.44% Wilshire 12.70% Wilshire 0.70% Wilshire 13.40% Gold 13.70% Gold -2.10% Wilshire 14.10% US High Yield US High Yield 15.1215.12 REIT 7.48% US High Yield US High Yield 15.81%15.81% Crude Oil 7.32% US Aggregate US Aggregate 5.97%5.97% US Aggregate US Aggre

46、gate 0.55%0.55% S&P 500 12.00% Crude Oil 12.50% S&P 500 -4.40% S&P 500 13.60% Crude Oil 15.10% US High Yield US High Yield 4.98%4.98% Gold 6.96% REIT 1.26% US High Yield US High Yield 2.45%2.45% US High Yield US High Yield - -4.47%4.47% Gold 8.60% US High Yield US High Yield 7.50%7.50% Wilshire -5.3

47、0% US High YieldUS High Yield 7.26% 7.26% S&P 500 15.06% S&P 500 2.11% US Aggregate US Aggregate 4.21%4.21% US Aggregate US Aggregate - -2.02%2.02% Gold -1.51% Gold -10.50% REIT 7.10% REIT 3.70% REIT -5.80% US AggregateUS Aggregate 2.94% 2.94% US Aggregate US Aggregate 6.54%6.54% Wilshire 0.98% Crude Oil -7.08% Gold -28.26% Crude Oil -45.76% Crude Oil -30.50% US Aggregate US Aggregate 2.65%2.65% US