世界經濟論壇：加快新常態中的數字包容性（英文版）（24頁）.pdf

1、Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal P L A Y B O O K J U LY 2 0 2 0 In collaboration with Boston Consulting Group Contents Executive summary 1 Role of connectivity in the time of COVID-19 2 Critical gaps in the digital divide 3 A growing digital divide in the new normal 4 The future of d

2、igital inclusion 4.1 Growth 4.2 Financing 4.3 Technology Conclusion Acknowledgements Endnotes 3 4 5 7 8 8 13 18 21 22 23 Cover: Getty Images/Dobrila Vignjevic Inside: Getty Images/Subman; Reuters/Amit Dave; Reuters/Danish Siddiqui; Unsplash/Dan Burton; Reuters/Alessandro Bianchi; Reuters/Jason Redmo

3、nd 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal2 Executive summary T

4、he COVID-19 crisis has thrown into sharp focus the importance of digital connectivity in daily life. As many countries underwent lockdown periods, digital infrastructure was critical to mitigate the impact of stay-at-home restrictions. Connectivity players have contributed by taking short-term actio

5、ns to ensure continued access during the crisis. More importantly, their long-term investment in infrastructure over the past 20 years has driven a step change in the level of fixed and mobile coverage and technology. This has enabled the continuation of key activities digitally, such as remote work

6、ing, healthcare and education, and underpinned the growth of sectors such as e-commerce while supporting adjacent industry players at a critical time. At the same time, the crisis has also exposed even more clearly the gaps that still exist in digital access. When essential services such as health,

7、education or simply being able to continue ones professional activity depend on connectivity, the inequalities became exacerbated. There remains a divide in access to high-speed fixed and mobile connectivity. Even among fixed broadband subscribers, many do not get sufficient speeds for effective rem

8、ote work, telemedicine or study, including in developed countries. Beyond coverage, there is a bigger divide in adoption where those with coverage may not use the internet due to lack of affordability, digital skills or relevant content in the local language. Furthermore, these issues extend to busi

9、nesses that faced similar challenges during the crisis. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) lag behind large corporations, rendering them more vulnerable to closures and job losses in an environment where digital is increasingly key. The post-COVID-19 “new normal” will likely se

10、e an increase in speeds, devices and budgets required by households and businesses, exacerbating existing divides. As such, connectivity must become the top priority and stakeholders must aim for United Nations targets: by 2025, broadband internet1 user penetration should reach 75% worldwide, and by

11、 2025, broadband should cost no more than 2% of earnings. It will also be important to implement the UN Secretary-Generals Roadmap for Digital Cooperation. To achieve this, stakeholders should aim to drive adoption of high-speed internet beyond coverage targets and take a “tech agnostic” approach, w

12、here traditional business cases are insufficient this incorporates terrestrial and non-terrestrial infrastructure options for providing access to high-quality fixed broadband, wireless and satellite networks. At this watershed moment, telcos and industry verticals, multinational corporations, govern

13、mental and non-governmental organizations must mobilize to develop strategies to accelerate digital inclusion. This playbook builds on past efforts by the World Economic Forum and other groups (e.g. GSMA, Broadband Commission) and highlights further key recommendations across three pillars: Technolo

14、gyGrowthFinancing How can the public and private sectors stimulate growth in the industry to accelerate digital development in unserved and underserved regions? Accelerate current efforts, particularly on increasing adoption through improved affordability and digital skills Set up horizontal nationa

15、l digital strategies and disburse unused funds via efficient mechanisms Collaborate across sectors and governments to facilitate the digitization of SMEs through end-to-end “digital SME in a box” solutions, as a key revenue growth driver How can the public and private sectors best finance the infras

16、tructure and digitization required to enable high-speed internet in unserved and underserved regions? Accelerate relevant partnerships and regulatory actions identified Involve more non-telco actors in infra-sharing discussions Creatively and assertively seek access to outside funding available for

17、digitization and connectivity; explore ways to earmark recent recovery funding Collaborate with government to address bureaucratic hurdles of to speed up roll-out What combination of existing and emerging technologies can efficiently and sustainably deliver affordable connectivity? Continue optimizi

18、ng for the right mix of technologies across fixed, wireless and new non-terrestrial technologies across contexts Accelerate the digitization of existing operations through smart planning, automation, new architectures and ways of working, to improve the cost base and viability of investments in unde

19、rserved areas Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal3 Role of connectivity in the time of COVID-19 1 The ongoing COVID-19 crisis has generated a fundamental change in the context connectivity and tech players operate in, as societies are increasingly recognizing the critical importance of

20、digital infrastructure and services. By end of April 2020, 70% of countries globally were faced with some level of stay-at-home requirements, a majority of which were strict lockdowns. During this period, internet use grew by as much as 70%, the use of remote desktop by 40% and the use of virtual co

21、llaboration tools by more than 600%.2 Connectivity and tech players have played a key role in supporting this crisis with short-term response actions, as detailed in the Digital Development Joint Action Plan and Call for Action published in April 2020 by the World Bank, International Telecommunicati

22、on Union (ITU), GSMA and World Economic Forum. However, beyond the instrumental role held by the industry in the short term, the most important enabler allowing the world to operate during these lockdowns has been the substantial infrastructure roll-out and investments made by the industry since the

23、 internet boom. Operators and infrastructure providers have invested trillions of dollars over the past 20 years to create the digital infrastructure coverage and capacity required to sustain lifestyles during COVID-19. From almost nothing two decades ago, today close to 45% of global households hav

24、e a fixed broadband subscription, of which close to half enjoy fibre connections and speeds. In the same timeframe, mobile coverage has risen from 12% to 97% of the worlds population, with more than 85% enjoying 4G technology.3 This solid digital infrastructure has enabled the continuation of key ac

25、tivities, allowing an estimated 10% of the global labour force to work remotely, supporting close to 300 million jobs. This translates to an annual impact of $8 trillion, or twice the size of the Germanys economy. A similar number of school-aged kids and university/higher education students 100 mill

26、ion and 200 million, respectively, have also been able to maintain access to education remotely. While this represents 15-30% of the global student population, it is weighted towards developed economies.4 Connectivity also had a significant impact on managing health-related issues during the crisis;

27、 technology was used for pandemic planning, surveillance, testing, contact tracing, quarantine and remote healthcare. Telemedicine consultations grew more in one month than in 10 years,5 which played a key role in keeping lines down at hospitals and maintaining patients in good health. While some se

28、ctors have been badly hit (e.g. travel and hospitality), others have been able to grow during the lockdowns, directly enabled by connectivity, such as e-commerce, food delivery and online groceries, with positive spillover effects to adjacent industry players, all of which would have been impossible

29、 20 years ago. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a newfound sense of urgency to the digital inclusion agenda. While the crisis has enabled hundreds of millions to work, learn and connect digitally, it is easy to see how it has also exacerbated the situation for far too many people in vulnerable

30、situations around the world. Now, more than ever, connectivity should be at the core of all national and international priorities from healthcare, education, government services and beyond. This new normal presents an unprecedented opportunity for cross-sector collaboration to bridge the digital div

31、ide and enable unforeseen growth opportunities for the economy and society. Mauricio Ramos, Chief Executive Officer, Millicom, USA; Chair, Digital Communications Industry Community, World Economic Forum Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal4 Despite support from the industry, the current

32、crisis has also highlighted gaps in access and exacerbated the existing digital divide, both in developing and developed markets: Fixed network coverage, penetration and speeds are still lacking in many middle- and low-income countries. Indeed, less than 10% of households in low-income countries are

33、 fixed broadband subscribers, compared to 70% and close to 90% in middle- and high-income countries, respectively. More importantly, over half of these low-income broadband subscribers have access to speeds 10Mbps. Even in higher-income economies, such as the US or European markets, 10% of the broad

34、band subscribers still get speeds below 10Mbps and close to 30% below 30Mbps. Speeds above these levels would enable a more enhanced usage of connectivity, better simultaneous virtual communication (VC) for work and school, and an overall improved user experience. These speeds were impacted due to t

35、he recent crisis, as a result of increased network traffic, hitting lows of 5Mbps in upstate New York for example, preventing some communities, mostly rural, from accessing the internet at all.6 Mobile connectivity coverage and capacity improvements are needed within the high- speed internet discuss

36、ion, especially as 4G can bring speeds comparable to broadband in selected markets. Despite a 40% increase in the number of people connected to the internet (1 billion) in the past five years, over 30% of lower-income country populations are not yet covered by 4G and those who are benefit from relat

37、ively poorer speeds than their higher- income counterparts. That said, an estimated additional 25% of the global population, beyond those enjoying high-speed fixed connections, can access internet speeds above 30Mbps thanks to 4G connectivity today. A combination of access technologies, including sa

38、tellites, will be explored under technology. Critical gaps in the digital divide 2 Beyond availability of infrastructure, a wide affordability gap continues to exist, driving a usage gap between penetration and coverage. In low-income countries, a monthly broadband subscription costs 12% of gross na

39、tional income (GNI), far higher than the UN target of less than 2% by 2025. Similarly, the cost of a basic smartphone ($150) represents more than 1.2 months wages in these low- income countries, and at least 3-4 times that for laptops, which is becoming one of the largest barriers to internet adopti

40、on, even where coverage exists. Indeed, smartphone ownership drops to 30-60% in low-income Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal5 countries and only 21% for personal computer (PC) ownership. The ownership of PCs also remains too low in middle- and higher-income economies at 57% and 85%, r

41、espectively, driving significant limitations especially in terms of remote education during the recent lockdowns.7 Digital literacy is an additional barrier to adoption by certain communities, both in developed and developing markets. In lower- income economies, only 32% of the population has basic

42、digital skills (i.e. defined as the ability to copy or move a file or send e mails). Even in higher-income economies, this number plateaus around 62% and drops rapidly to 44% if standard skills (i.e. defined as the ability to use basic formula in a spreadsheet or create electronic presentations) are

43、 considered, which also creates high barriers to adopting the required digital services to enable a remote lifestyle.8 Digital literacy is also closely intertwined with the availability of relevant use cases, localized content, products and services attractive for user consumption, or lack thereof i

44、n some markets. These gaps do not stop at individuals and households. Businesses, specifically SMEs, have been lagging behind and are particularly exposed in this crisis, despite the critical role they play in global economies. SMEs represent more than 90% of businesses worldwide and half of global

45、employment, and even more in emerging markets where they drive more than half of GDP.9 However, they lag far behind larger companies in terms of ICT adoption and maturity. Less than half have fixed broadband connectivity and overall less than a quarter are digitized (offering some service online) co

46、mpared to almost 100% for larger companies.10 Therefore, at most, 10-20% of SME employees have been able to work remotely during lockdowns versus over 50% for large companies, even in high- income markets such as Japan.11 This obviously exacerbated the already significant impact of the COVID crisis

47、on SMEs. They have been particularly vulnerable and at risk of suffering more job losses and closures compared to larger companies; for example, 2.5 times more redundancies/employee vs larger companies in France.12 This gap is expected to widen as early evidence shows resumption rate post-lockdowns

48、is slower for SMEs compared to larger companies, and a vast majority of support actions announced globally disproportionately focus on large companies. They must not be excluded from the digital inclusion discussion. Despite billions of dollars of investments, massive connectivity progress globally

49、and strong continued efforts across the industry, these gaps have been exacerbated in the recent crisis and are likely to persist and even worsen once the world reaches a “new normal” with pervasive digitization across all aspects of life. Individuals and businesses will become accustomed, and will be expected, to conduct key activities online, thus shifting consumer habits to more virtual lifestyles and increasing reliance on technology and connectivity. Accelerating Digital Inclusion in the New Normal6 Post-COVID-19, the “new normal” will likel