1、 Table_yemei1 觀點聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責聲明，請參閱附錄。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究報告 Research Report 8 Oct 2024 中電控股中電控股 C

2、LP Holdings(2 HK)首次覆蓋：根植香港，亞太區百年能源行業運營商 Rooted in Hong Kong,a century-old energy industry operator in Asia Pacific region:Initiation Table_Info 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市Initiate with OUTPERFORM 評級 優于大市 OUTPERFORM 現價 HK$68.45 目標價 HK$73.55 HTI ESG 3.5-4.1-3.5 E-S-G:0-5,(Please refer to the Appendix for ESG com

3、ments)市值 HK$172.94bn/US$22.27bn 日交易額(3 個月均值)US$29.64mn 發行股票數目 2,526mn 自由流通股(%)72%1 年股價最高最低值 HK$71.50-HK$55.75 注：現價 HK$68.45 為 2024 年 10 月 07 日收盤價 資料來源：Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 絕對值-1.0%8.0%28.9%絕對值（美元）-0.6%8.6%30.0%相對相對 MSCI China-37.0%-21.9%-2.8%Table_P HK$mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 8

4、7,169 90,266 93,867 98,531 Revenue(+/-)-13%4%4%5%Net profit 6,655 6,941 7,338 7,563 Net profit(+/-)620%4%6%3%Diluted EPS(HK$)2.63 2.75 2.90 2.99 GPM 32.7%33.1%33.6%33.6%ROE 6.4%6.8%7.3%7.5%P/E 26 25 24 23 資料來源：公司信息,HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)2023年公司盈利顯著修復。年公司盈利顯著修復。2019年以來，公司營業收入

5、有所波動，由 856.89 億港元逐漸增長到 2023 年的 971.69 億港元，期間CAGR 約為 0.4%。2023 年，公司實現歸母凈利潤 66.55 億港元，同比增長 620.2%，主要因為 2022 年澳洲業務因發電量短缺而無法應對的遠期銷售合約在批發電價創歷史新高的環境下所產生的結算成本，使能源業務受到嚴重不良影響，而 2023 年遠期電價放緩且價外能源合約陸續到期，使得利潤顯著修復。香港地區貢獻公司香港地區貢獻公司 60%的的營業收入營業收入和和 76%的營運利潤的營運利潤。公司的營業收入主要來自香港和澳洲，2023 年占比分別為 60%和38%。2023 年，公司計入公平價值

6、變動前營運盈利為 101.27 億港元，其中香港占 76%，中國內地占 18%；按業務劃分，輸電配電及零售/燃煤及燃氣/核能/可再生能源的盈利占比分別為53%/22%/16%/9%。公司派息穩定，資產負債水平相對穩健。公司派息穩定，資產負債水平相對穩健。公司作為香港公用事業股維持穩定派息記錄，近年來每年股息維持在 3.1港元，2023年年度股息率為 4.81%，公司資產負債率保持在 51%左右，波動較小，具有良好的償債能力和財務穩定性。今年 5 月 13 日公司宣布派發 2024 年第一期中期股息每股 0.63 港元，與 2023 年第一期中期股息相同，每股盈利符合預期。香港電力需求有望持續增

7、長，中國內地香港電力需求有望持續增長，中國內地、澳洲澳洲及印度及印度地區地區可再生能源裝機有望提升?？稍偕茉囱b機有望提升。公司預計在中華電力供電范圍內擬建的公共房屋單位數量，將在五年內增加 50%。此外，香港具優厚潛力成為區域數據中心的樞紐，公司目標在 2028 年前，為最多達 18 個大型數據中心接駁和提供電力。2024 年，EnergyAustralia新建的 320 MW Tallawarra B 燃氣發電廠已經啟用，計劃在 2030 年底前把發展或營運中的可再生能源項目增加至最多 3,000 MW。Apraava Energy 不但成功投得新的風電、太陽能及輸電項目，更成功進軍新興的

8、智能電表及通訊系統（AMI）行業。盈利預測及投資建議盈利預測及投資建議:基于 DCF 估值模型，我們預計公司 2024-2026 年營收分別為 902.66/938.67/985.31 億港元，歸母凈利潤為69.41/73.38/75.63 億港元，首次覆蓋給出 73.55 港元的目標價，并給出“優于大市”的評級。風險提示風險提示:1.匯率波動風險；2.股息低于預期；3.監管環境變化風險。Table_Author 楊斌楊斌 Bin Yang 毛瓊佩毛瓊佩 Olivia Mao 85100115130145Price ReturnMSCI ChinaMay-24Sep-24Volume 8 Oc

9、t 2024 2 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 目錄目錄 1.亞太區主要的能源行業運營商亞太區主要的能源行業運營商.3 1.1 根植于香港，業務覆蓋亞太地區，市場多元化.3 1.2 盈利持續修復，派息保持穩定.4 2.香港電力香港電力“雙雄雙雄”之一之一.7 2.1 2050 年前實現港府“凈零發電”目標.7 2.2 公司遵照“管制計劃協議”為香港提供電力.8 3.致力能源轉型，加快擴展可再生能源組合致力能源轉型，加快擴展可再生能源組合.10 3.1 火電機組仍為公司目前主要發電來源,主要集中在香港.10 3.2 中國內地、澳洲及印度地區具備

10、較大可再生能源裝機增長潛力.11 3.3 化石燃料資產淘汰與可再生能源業務拓展有序過渡.12 4.盈利預測及估值盈利預測及估值.13 5.風險提示風險提示.15 8 Oct 2024 3 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 1.亞太區主要的能源行業運營商亞太區主要的能源行業運營商 1.1 根植于香港，業務覆蓋亞太地區根植于香港，業務覆蓋亞太地區，市場多元化，市場多元化 中電集團是亞太區規模最大的私營電力公司之一，業務遍及香港、中國內地、澳洲、中電集團是亞太區規模最大的私營電力公司之一，業務遍及香港、中國內地、澳洲、印度、臺灣地區及泰國。印度、臺灣地

11、區及泰國。旗下中電控股有限公司是一家主要從事發電及供電的投資控股公司。公司運營發電組合，涵蓋燃煤、燃氣、核電、風電、水電及太陽能，業務范疇涵蓋能源價值鏈的每個主要環節：從發電、輸配電到零售及智慧能源服務。附屬公司的主要業務為中國香港、印度和澳洲的發電及供電業務，并投資于中國內地、東南亞及中國臺灣的電力項目。減碳及數碼化是驅動未來大趨勢，中電集團業務根基雄厚，將竭力迎接新機遇，滿足世界各地能源用戶不斷轉變的需求。公司為香港電力公司為香港電力“雙雄雙雄”之一。之一。中國香港的電力行業受管制計劃協議規管，由兩間電力公司營運，分別向不同地區提供縱向式綜合電力服務。其中以中電集團全資附屬公司中華電力有限

12、公司規模較大，為九龍、新界及大部分離島約 279 萬個客戶提供可靠度99.999%的世界級電力服務，客戶數目占香港八成以上人口。發展歷程：發展歷程：1901 年，中電于 1 月 25 日在香港正式注冊成立，名為“中華電力有限公司”；1985 年，與廣東核電投資有限公司組成合營公司，于中國廣東省大亞灣興建核電站，并于 1994 年正式投入服務；1998 年，重組公司，成立中電控股；2001 年，首度涉足澳洲電力市場，收購雅洛恩能源大部分權益；2002 年，打入印度電力市場，收購 位 于 印 度 的 Paguthan Combined Cycle Power Plant；2011 年，完 成 收

13、購EnergyAustralia 能源零售業務；2019 年，于最新版本的氣候愿景 2050中，承諾不再投資新的燃煤發電容量，并于 2050 年前，逐步把所有余下的燃煤發電資產退役；2023 年，成功啟用香港首個海上液化天然氣接收站，在香港市場業務中，邁出減碳的重要一步。圖圖 1：公司發展歷程：公司發展歷程 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 公司股權結構清晰，嘉道理家族為實際控制人。公司股權結構清晰，嘉道理家族為實際控制人。截止 2023 年 12 月 31 日，米高嘉道理、斐歷嘉道理、Lawrencium Mikado Holdings Limited 為公司大股東，直接持有公司16.25%/16

14、.20%/9.22%的股權，占總股數比例的 41.67%。公司股權結構清晰，股權份額相對集中，嘉道理家族為實際控制人，家族涉及香港電力、地產、酒店、銀行等諸多產業管理，深入香港本土市場。2023 年蔣東強先生開始任職中電控股首席執行官，擁有 30 年以上的集團任職經驗，并兼備相應技術經驗；羅嘉進先生將接替蔣先生中華電力總裁職位。8 Oct 2024 4 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 圖圖 2：公司股權結構：公司股權結構 資料來源：Wind，HTI 1.2 盈利持續修復，派息保持穩定盈利持續修復，派息保持穩定 2023 年年運營穩定，運營穩定，

15、利潤實現大幅提升。利潤實現大幅提升。2019 年以來，公司營業收入有一定波動，由856.89 億港元逐漸增長到 2023 年的 971.69 億港元，期間 CAGR 約為 0.4%。2023 年公司營收同比下降 13.4%，主要因為于 2022 年 12 月完成減持后，公司終止會計合并Apraava Energy，來自印度的收入不再被合并入賬；此外由于 2022 年澳洲批發市場現貨價格處于高位，而 2023 年批發市場現貨價格有所降低，發電量因在 2023 年較低批發價格環境下減少，澳洲能源業務收入下跌 90 億港元。公司盈利波動較大，計及 EnergyAustralia 的非現金商譽客戶業務

16、減值 59 億港元，2023 年實現歸母凈利潤 66.55 億港元，同比增長 620.2%，盈利大幅修復，主要原因是來自香港管制計劃業務的可靠貢獻，中電中國業務保持強勁的財務表現、Apraava Energy 繼續展現出提高業務利潤的能力，以及 2023 年遠期電價放緩且價外能源合約陸續到期，使得利潤顯著修復。圖圖 3：公司營業收入及同比增速：公司營業收入及同比增速 圖圖 4：公司歸母凈利潤及同比增速：公司歸母凈利潤及同比增速 資料來源：Wind，HTI 資料來源：Wind，HTI 8 Oct 2024 5 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 中國

17、香港地區貢獻公司中國香港地區貢獻公司 60%的營業收入和的營業收入和 76%的營的營業業利潤利潤。盡管受股東負擔的較高利息成本影響，但公司盈利貢獻穩定受惠于準許利潤的固定資產平均凈值上升，以及五年的節約能源和接駁可再生能源系統的表現獎勵增加。公司的營業收入主要來自香港和澳洲，2023 年占比分別為 60%和 38%。2023 年，公司計入公平價值變動前營運盈利為 101.27 億港元，其中香港占 76%，中國內地占 18%；按業務劃分，輸電配電及零售/燃煤及燃氣/核能/可再生能源的盈利占比分別為 53%/22%/16%/9%，78%的營運盈利來自零碳發電資產、輸電、配電及零售業務。圖圖 5：公

18、司營業收入地區占比：公司營業收入地區占比 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 香港香港經濟活動恢復經濟活動恢復，電廠電廠經營改善經營改善。1）香港經濟逐步恢復，疊加夏季氣溫創下記錄最高，中華電力的售電量同比增長 1.6%至 353.92 億度；2）管制計劃協議的中期檢討已完成，并作出若干修訂，電力價格維持合理；中國內地零碳能源中國內地零碳能源組合組合貢獻貢獻穩定穩定。1）核電為主要盈利貢獻來源。陽江核電站發電量創新高，但被大亞灣核電站進行的大型計劃停運所抵消。2）新風能和太陽能項目帶來額外貢獻。3）擁有少數股權的神華國華煤電資產錄得虧損。我們認為大亞灣和陽江核電站貢獻穩定，將繼續是中國內地市場的主要盈

19、利來源。澳洲澳洲 EnergyAustralia 能源能源業務業務逐步逐步恢復恢復，零售，零售營運環境營運環境具具挑戰挑戰性。性。能源業務：業務虧損大幅收窄，帶動因素為：1）雅洛恩及 Mount Piper 電廠實現價格上升；2）2022 年因發電量不足，而以高昂成本結算遠期合約的情況不再發生；3）燃氣組合利潤率上升（不再出現 2022 年非常高的采購成本）；及 4）來自可再生能源購電協議的貢獻增加?？蛻魳I務方面：不利的零售業務表現主要由於能源采購成本上升，及 2022 年一次性的對沖收益不再發生，部份被零售零售調整價格所抵消。不利的零售市場趨勢影響客戶流失率，導致客戶數目減少，但客戶流失率繼

20、續優于市場平均水平。整體上看，澳洲能源市場的競爭態勢仍為后續經營狀況帶來挑戰。印度印度 Apraava Energy 盈利盈利增長增長。1）風能和太陽能組合發電量增加，并從預期繳款中獲得較高的利息收入；2）哈格爾電廠表現卓越推動盈利增加；3）輸電資產表現穩健及融資成本減少。整體上看，印度電力市場需求保持旺盛，電廠運營效率和盈利能力表現突出。8 Oct 2024 6 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 臺灣地區和平電廠盈利改善及泰國臺灣地區和平電廠盈利改善及泰國 Lopburi 運營穩定。運營穩定。1）臺灣和平電廠維持穩定運營，受益于煤價下跌，加上電

21、價補償機制于 2022 年 7 月修訂后電價上調；2）泰國 Lopburi太陽能光伏電站的貢獻保持平穩。圖圖 6：公司營運盈利業務占比：公司營運盈利業務占比 圖圖 7：公司營運盈利地區占比：公司營運盈利地區占比 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI（扣除支銷及澳洲營運虧損的 182 百萬港元）公司派息穩定，資產負債水平相對穩健。公司派息穩定，資產負債水平相對穩健。公司作為香港公用事業股維持穩定的派息記錄，近年來公司派發的每年股息均維持在 3.1 港元。公司根據集團長久以來的派息政策和管理，在衡量了集團 2023 年的財務表現有所改善，以及需要為能源轉型作持續投資的兩項因素后，

22、2023 年度的總股息維持不變，2023 年年度股息率為 4.8%。公司每股收益波動較大，2023 年恢復到 2.63 港元。2023 年公司凈利率為 8.8%，同比提升7.3 個百分點；資產負債率保持在 51%左右，波動較小，公司具有良好的償債能力和財務穩定性。圖圖 8：資產負債率、凈利率：資產負債率、凈利率 圖圖 9：每股派息及每股收益：每股派息及每股收益 資料來源：Wind，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 集團集團 2024 年上半年年上半年營運營運穩定穩定，盈利能力持續修復，盈利能力持續修復。2024 年上半年，公司實現營收440.86 億港元，營業利潤為 58.55 億港元，同比

23、增長 25.3%，歸母凈利潤為 59.51 億港元，同比增長 17.6%。其中，香港市場業務穩健，澳洲市場維持改善趨勢，印度市場 8 Oct 2024 7 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 增長可觀，內地業務盈利受核電投資組合大修工程影響拖累，但可再生能源投資項目的增長依然穩健?；诩瘓F的穩健表現，2024 年 5 月 13 日公司宣布派發 2024 年第一期中期股息每股 0.63 港元，與 2023 年第一期中期股息相同，每股盈利符合預期。整體來看，公司營運維持穩定，盈利能力持續修復。2024 年上半年，公司 ROE（平均）達 11.56%，R

24、OIC 為 2.73%，運營效率和盈利能力顯著恢復；公司實現經營性現金流凈額90.16億港元，同比增長52.8%，主要是澳洲、印度地區經營情況改善相對明顯，同時香港、內地業務維持穩定，經營性現金流凈額改善明顯，盈利質量提升。圖圖 10：ROE（年化）、（年化）、ROIC 圖圖 11：經營現金流凈額及核心利潤比值經營現金流凈額及核心利潤比值 資料來源：Wind，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 注：核心利潤=毛利-折舊攤銷-薪金福利支出+利息收入-融資成本 2.香港電力香港電力“雙雄雙雄”之一之一 2.1 2050 年前實現港府年前實現港府“凈零發電凈零發電”目標目標 香港力爭到香港力爭到 2

25、035 年停止燃煤日常發電，可再生能源發電占比提升至年停止燃煤日常發電，可再生能源發電占比提升至 7.5%-10%。根據香港氣候行動藍圖 2050，要做到 2050 年前“凈零發電”，香港首要改變本地電廠的燃料組合，中期目標是 2035 年或之前停用煤作日常發電，零碳能源在發電燃料組合中的比例必須提高至 60%-70%。電力公司須繼續逐步淘汰燃煤發電機組，并以天然氣及可再生能源等取代燃煤發電；政府大力推動可再生能源發展，透過促進本地項目、區域合作和共同投資等，爭取在 2035 年或之前把可再生能源在發電燃料中所占比例提升至 7.5%至 10%。香港本地用電量當前呈緩慢增長趨勢。香港本地用電量當

26、前呈緩慢增長趨勢。2015 年以來，香港每年當地用電量有所波動但總體呈上升趨勢，由 2015 年的 158,083 太焦耳逐漸增長到 2023 年的 163,558 太焦耳，期間 CAGR 約為 0.4%。2023 年，全港總用電量同比上升 1.5%。其中，商業用電量同比增長 3%，而住宅用量同比降低 2%，但未回落至疫前水平，預計主要為居民外出增加，商業用電增加抵消住宅用量下降，同時來港旅游、基建建設活動正常開展等經濟活動，帶動香港整體用電量回升。8 Oct 2024 8 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 中華電力有限公司（中華電力）2023

27、年售電量 35,392 百萬度，較 2022 年上升1.6%。2024 年首季 7,279 百萬度，較 2023 年同期上升 3.7%。一季度因天氣較溫和帶動電力需求，加上閏年二月較多日數的效應，所有客戶類別的用電量按年均錄得上升。2024 年上半年，盡管整體用電量有所增加，由于國際燃料價格持續回落導致平均凈電價下降，香港電力業務收入同比減少 3.0%。圖圖 12：香港當地用電量及增速：香港當地用電量及增速 資料來源：政府統計處，HTI 2.2 公司遵照公司遵照“管制計劃協議管制計劃協議”為香港提供電力為香港提供電力 中電和港燈在港經營綜合電力業務。中電和港燈在港經營綜合電力業務。電力“雙雄”

28、中華電力有限公司(中電)及香港電燈有限公司(港燈)負責香港電力供應，兩者均為投資者所擁有，無專營權，都是集發電、輸電、售電于一身的垂直一體化企業。中電為九龍及新界并包括大嶼山、長洲及其他部分離島供應電力，主要供電區占到了香港總面積的 90%以上，覆蓋的人口范圍約為80%；而港燈則為港島及其鄰近的鴨脷洲和南丫島供應電力鴨脷洲。兩家電力公司均與政府簽訂管制計劃協議。兩家電力公司均與政府簽訂管制計劃協議。上世紀 60 年代，香港正處于經濟高速發展時期，需要吸引外來投資推進工業發展。為鼓勵電力公司提高供電能力，港英政府分別在 1964 年和 1978 年與兩家電力公司簽訂管制計劃協議，每十年期滿后續簽

29、，并延用至今。根據該協議，港府保證電力公司的利潤率，兩電準許回報率最高為其固定資產平均凈值的 15%。有了來自政府的利潤承諾，香港電力的投資建設加速進行，1970 年代香港建起當時東南亞最大的燃煤電廠，中華電力有限公司在 2018 年10 月開始實行的新管制計劃協議，協議年期為 15 年，準許利潤水平為固定資產平均凈值的 8%。8 Oct 2024 9 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 圖圖 13：主要輸電網絡主要輸電網絡分布圖分布圖 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 香港居民的電費由基本電費和燃料調整費兩部分組成。香港居民的電費由基本電費和燃料調整費

30、兩部分組成?；倦娰M是將年度預測的標準燃料成本、營運成本及準許利潤的總和，除以預測售電量得出；燃料調整費則反映燃料價格的變動，以實報實銷方式，由用戶向電力公司支付?；倦妰r每年調整一次，燃料調整費則是根據市況波動。此機制有助更適時反映實際燃料成本，同時減低因燃料價格和燃料耗用量的波動所導致的短期影響。2024年電價年電價下調下調，基本電價，基本電價預期預期在未在未來來五年維持五年維持平穩平穩水平。水平。隨著國際燃料價格從高位回落，公司 2024 年 1 月的凈電費同比下降 7.4%。由于國際燃料價格由高位回落，中華電力的燃料調整費將由 2023 年 1 月每度電 62 港仙下調至每度電 46.

31、3 港仙。對于連續三年維持在同一水平的平均基本電價，則由每度電 93.7 港仙輕微上調至每度電 96.6 港仙。經調整后，2024 年的平均凈電價為每度電 142.9 港仙，較今年初每度電 154.4 港仙下調 7.4%。圖圖 14：香港電費組成示意圖：香港電費組成示意圖 圖圖 15：電價圖：電價圖 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 8 Oct 2024 10 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 3.致力能源轉型，加快擴展可再生能源組合致力能源轉型，加快擴展可再生能源組合 3.1 火電機組仍為公司火電機組仍為公司目前目前主要發

32、電來源主要發電來源,主要集中在香港主要集中在香港 公司火電裝機占比為公司火電裝機占比為 68%，主要集中在香港。，主要集中在香港。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，公司總裝機容量為 23,291 MW，其中火電裝機占比最高，達到 68%，燃煤及燃氣發電裝機分別為9,719 MW 和 6,093 MW，占比分別為 42%和 26%；核電裝機達到 2,685 MW，占比為12%；風電和光伏裝機分別為 2,391 MW 和 842 MW，占比為 10%和 4%。按地區劃分，公司主要電力裝機分布在香港、中國內地及澳洲，容量分別為 8,268/7,180/5,859 MW，裝機占比為 35%/31

33、%/25%。圖圖 16：公司裝機結構：公司裝機結構 圖圖 17：公司發電裝機地區占比：公司發電裝機地區占比 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 香港電力需求有望持續增長。香港電力需求有望持續增長。香港特區政府重視土地及房屋供應，公司預計在中華電力供電范圍內擬建的公共房屋單位數量，將在五年內增加 50%至超過 15 萬個。此外，香港具優厚潛力成為區域數據中心的樞紐，公司的目標是在 2028 年前，為最多達 18 個大型數據中心接駁和提供電力。目前，電動車占香港路面車輛總數約 9%，公司支持政府的EV 屋苑充電易資助計劃將推動電動車用電的持續增長。獲香港特區政府批準發展計劃投資

34、獲香港特區政府批準發展計劃投資 529 億港元。億港元。中電已于 2023 年 11 月獲香港特區政府批準五年發展計劃投資 529 億港元，持續的資本投資將為公司 2024-2028 年在香港市場的持續增長奠定根基，滿足香港地區不斷增長的能源需求和達成能源轉型目標。公司在香港能源轉型中尋求公司在香港能源轉型中尋求多元化多元化策略，邁出減碳重要一步。策略，邁出減碳重要一步。公司新建的海上液化天然氣接收站已于 2023 年夏季落成啟用；龍鼓灘發電廠新建的 600 MW 燃氣發電機組 D2 已經竣工，機組于 4 月投入運作，以配合青山發電 A 廠燃煤機組逐步退役；中華電力將興建 100 MW 電網級

35、規模的電池儲能系統，舒緩高峰期的系統需求，以及支持非化石燃料的電力并網；公司亦開展天然氣混合氫氣發電試點項目；正在推的清潔能源專線系統增容工程，可為香港輸入更多零碳能源。8 Oct 2024 11 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 3.2 中國內地中國內地、澳洲及印度、澳洲及印度地區地區具備較大具備較大可再生能源可再生能源裝機增長潛力裝機增長潛力 中國內地中國內地、澳洲澳洲及印度及印度可再生能源裝機有望提升?？稍偕茉囱b機有望提升。集團配合中國內地2030年“碳達峰”、2060 年“碳中和”的“雙碳目標”，正在有序開展可再生能源拓展策略。2023

36、 年，公司位于廣西壯族自治區的 150 MW 博白風場已經動工，計劃于 2024 年投入營運，貴州省的100 MW 三都二期風場和位于江蘇省淮安及宜興的兩個 100 MW 太陽能項目預計快將動工。除了正在興建的項目外，公司還取得多個可再生能源項目的建設配額，廣西有660 MW，山東有 530 MW，但現階段尚未確定是否所有項目均會開展。公司亦有可能開展另一策略，即拓展尋甸風場及三都風場，提升區域內的協同效應。澳洲全資公司 EnergyAustralia 承諾在 2030 年底前把發展或營運中的可再生能源項目增加至最多 3,000 兆瓦。根據 EnergyAustralia 于 8 月公布的首份

37、氣候轉型行動計劃（CTAP），預計公司直接投入或與合作伙伴共同投資的金額將逾 50 億澳元。2024 年2 月，公司的澳洲全資附屬公司 EnergyAustralia 新建的 320 MW Tallawarra B 燃氣發電廠已經啟用，在用電高峰期間及日照和風力不足時，將在供電方面發揮更關鍵作用。EnergyAustralia 擴展可再生能源組合，如落實新一批靈活發電容量資產和可調度能源：燃氣調峰電廠（Tallawarra B）、儲能（Wooreen,Hallett,Mount Piper）和抽水蓄能（Kidston,Lake Lyell），以配合氣候轉型行動計劃。EnergyAustrali

38、a 定下目標，在2030 年底前把發展或營運中的可再生能源項目由目前約 900 MW 增加至最多 3,000 MW。印度合營企業 Apraava Energy 在擴展多元化低碳能源業務方面進展良好。印度政府的目標是到 2030 年將該國的可再生能源發電容量增加一倍以上，達到 50 萬兆瓦，并繼續推出政策推動基建投資，包括輸電和智能電錶及通訊系統等，以支持能源轉型。公司在支持印度能源業減碳的同時，亦滿足當地不斷增長的電力需求，Apraava Energy不但成功投得新的風電、太陽能及輸電項目，更成功進軍新興的智能電表及通訊系統（AMI）行業。臺灣地區和平電廠及泰國 Lopburi 太陽能光伏電廠

39、維持穩定運作。圖圖 18：公司在各地區投產、在建及規劃情況：公司在各地區投產、在建及規劃情況 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 8 Oct 2024 12 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 3.3 化石燃料資產淘汰與可再生能源業務拓展有序過渡化石燃料資產淘汰與可再生能源業務拓展有序過渡 逐步淘汰化石燃料資產逐步淘汰化石燃料資產。集團根據運營當地地區的減碳目標及電力需求，合理指定相應運營策略，逐步淘汰化石燃料資產，并制定了相應的淘汰時間表。多元化可再生能源業務為能源轉型的有序過渡作鋪墊。多元化可再生能源業務為能源轉型的有序過渡作鋪墊。為了配合能源轉型中淘

40、汰過程順利過渡，亦在有序進行上述的各地可再生能源業務拓展。根據氣候愿景 2050更新業務策略，加快減碳速度。根據更新版的氣候愿景 2050：推進有序轉型，中電承諾在 2030 年底前把所售電力的溫室氣體排放強度減至每度電 0.26 千克二氧化碳當量，而先前設定的目標為每度電 0.3 千克二氧化碳當量。2023 年，集團所售電力的溫室氣體排放強度，較上一年的每度電 0.55 千克二氧化碳當量，下降至每度電 0.54 千克二氧化碳當量，燃煤和燃氣資產的發電輸出量減少 12%，反映集團在減碳方面的成效和努力。圖圖 19：化石燃料資產淘汰時間表：化石燃料資產淘汰時間表 圖圖 20：可再生能源組合分布圖

41、可再生能源組合分布圖 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 圖圖 21：公司過去及預計未來的溫室氣體排放強度公司過去及預計未來的溫室氣體排放強度 資料來源：公司公告，HTI 8 Oct 2024 13 Table_header1 中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 4.盈利預測及估值盈利預測及估值 基于 DCF 估值模型，我們預計公司 2024-2026 年營收分別為 902.66/938.67/985.31 億港元，歸母凈利潤為 69.41/73.38/75.63 億港元，首次覆蓋給出 73.55 港元的目標價，并給出“優于大市”的評級。表表 1：DCF

42、估值估值 資料來源：公司數據，HTI 表表 2：敏感性分析：敏感性分析 資料來源：公司數據，HTI 8 Oct 2024 14 Table_header1中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 表表 3：財務信息：財務信息 資料來源：公司數據，HTI 8 Oct 2024 15 Table_header1中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 5.風險提示風險提示1.匯率波動風險；2.股息低于預期；3.監管環境變化風險。8 Oct 2024 16 Table_header1中電控股(2 HK)首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 APPENDIX 1 Summary S

43、ignificant Earnings Repair in 2023.Since 2019,the Companys operating income has fluctuated,gradually increasing from HK$85,689 million to HK$97,169 million in 2023,with a CAGR of approximately 0.4%over the period.In 2023,the Company achieved a net attributable profit of HK$6,655 million,a year-on-ye

44、ar increase of 620.2%,primarily due to the fact that the Australian business was severely adversely impacted by a generation The energy business was severely adversely impacted by settlement costs incurred by forward sales contracts that could not be met in 2022 due to a shortage of generation capac

45、ity in an environment of record high wholesale electricity prices,while profits were significantly repaired in 2023 due to a slowdown in forward tariffs and the expiration of out-of-the-money energy contracts.The Hong Kong region contributes 60%of the Companys revenue and 76%of its operating profit.

46、The companys operating revenue is mainly derived from Hong Kong and Australia,accounting for 60%and 38%respectively in 2023.in 2023,the companys operating profit before fair value changes is HK$10,127 million,of which 76%is generated in Hong Kong and 18%in Mainland China.by business,the profit share

47、 of transmission,distribution and retail/coal and gas-fired/nuclear energy/renewable energy is 53%/22%/16%/9%,respectively.16%/9%.The companys dividend payout is stable,and its balance sheet is relatively healthy.The company as a Hong Kong utility stocks to maintain a stable dividend payout record,i

48、n recent years the annual dividend maintained at 3.1 Hong Kong dollars,the annual dividend rate of 4.81%in 2023,the companys balance sheet ratio to maintain at about 51%,fluctuations are relatively small,with good solvency and financial stability.On May 13 this year,the Company declared a first inte

49、rim dividend of HK$0.63 per share for 2024,which is the same as the first interim dividend for 2023,and the earnings per share are in line with expectations.Demand for electricity in Hong Kong is expected to continue to grow,and renewable energy installed capacity in Mainland China and Australia is

50、expected to rise.The Company expects the number of public housing units to be built within CLPs power supply area to increase by 50%in five years.In addition,Hong Kong has strong potential to become a regional data center hub,with the Company targeting to connect and power up to 18 large data center

51、s by 2028.2024 saw the commissioning of EnergyAustralias new 320 MW Tallawarra B gas-fired power plant,and the Company plans to increase the number of renewable energy projects in development or operation to a maximum of 3,000 by 2030,with the Company also planning to increase the number of renewabl

52、e energy projects in development or in operation to a maximum of 3,000 by 2030,as well as to increase the number of renewable energy projects in the region.We plan to increase the number of renewable energy projects in development or operation to a maximum of 3,000 MW by 2030.Profit Forecast and Inv

53、estment Recommendation:Based on the DCF valuation model,we expect the companys 2024-2026 revenue to be HKD902.66/938.67/985.31 million and net profit to be HKD6,941/7,338/7,563 million respectively,and give a target price of HKD73.55 for the first time,with an“Outperform”rating.Risks:1)Exchange rate

54、 fluctuation risk;2)Lower-than-expected dividend;3)Regulatory environment change risk 17 Table_ESGcomments APPENDIX 2 ESG Comments Environmental:In 2023,the greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity sold by the Group decreased from 0.55 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour in the previous year

55、 to 0.54 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour,and the power generation output of coal-fired and gas-fired assets decreased by 12%,reflecting the effectiveness and efforts of the Group in reducing carbon.Social:In 2023,the greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity sold by the Group decreased fr

56、om 0.55 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour in the previous year to 0.54 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour,and the power generation output of coal-fired and gas-fired assets decreased by 12%,reflecting the effectiveness and efforts of the Group in reducing carbon.Governance:In 2023,the greenhouse

57、gas emission intensity of electricity sold by the Group decreased from 0.55 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour in the previous year to 0.54 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour,and the power generation output of coal-fired and gas-fired assets decreased by 12%,reflecting the effectiveness and effort

58、s of the Group in reducing carbon.18 Table_disclaimer APPENDIX IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Hai

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