1、Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation for Public TransitSTANDARDS RESEARCHMay 2024CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT2csagroup.orgAuthorNicholas Roberts,P.Eng,MSc.,CPCS Transcom Ltd.AcknowledgementsWe would like to acknowledge and express thanks for the input of those cons

2、ulted from various transit agencies and organizations across Canada during the interested parties engagement and workshop sessions.In addition,we would also like to recognize Elizabeth(Liz)Drake as a key contributor of the original study which formed the basis for this publication.Disclaimer:This wo

3、rk has been produced by CPCS Transcom Ltd.and is owned by Canadian Standards Association.It is designed to provide general information in regard to the subject matter covered.The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and interviewees.CPCS Transcom Ltd.and Canadian Standards As

4、sociation are not responsible for any loss or damage which might occur as a result of your reliance or use of the content in this publication.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT3csagroup.orgTable of ContentsExecutive Summary 51 Introduction 6 1.1 Canadas Changing Climate 6 1.

5、2 Implications of Climate Change to Public Transit 6 1.3 Background and Objectives 62 Methods 7 2.1 Literature Review 7 2.2 Interested Parties Engagement 7 2.3 Validation Workshops 83 Results 8 3.1 National Perspectives on Climate Change 8 3.1.1 Climate Stressors across Canada 8 3.1.2 Summary of Cli

6、mate Change Stressors 11 3.2 Examples of Climate Change Events and Impacts in Canada 11 3.2.1 Storm Surge,Winds,and Coastal Flooding in Atlantic Canada(2022)13 3.2.2 Intense Rainfall in Ontario(2013)13 3.2.3 Winter Storms in Central Canada(1998,2013,and 2022)13 3.2.4 Flooding in the Prairies(2013)14

7、 3.2.5 Flooding in Central and Southern Alberta(2013)14 3.2.6 Wildfires in Northern Alberta(2016)15 3.2.7 Landslides in British Columbia(2021)15 3.2.8 Winter Storms and Melting Permafrost in Northern Manitoba(2017)15 3.2.9 Wildfires and Heat Waves in Western Canada(2022)15 3.3 Overview of Canadas Pu

8、blic Transit Sector 16 3.4 Emerging Developments 19 3.4.1 Decarbonization and Electrification of Public Transit Systems 19 3.4.2 Higher Order Public Transportation 20CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT4csagroup.org 3.5 Linking Climate Change Issues to the Public Transit Secto

9、r 21 3.5.1 Climate Change Adaptation 21 3.5.2 Resiliency of Infrastructure 24 3.5.3 Community Resiliency and Continuity Management 24 3.6 Current Approaches to Identifying Climate Risks in Public Transit 24 3.6.1 Municipal Approaches 24 3.6.2 Federal and Provincial Approaches 25 3.7 Summary of Clima

10、te Risks to Canadas Public Transit Systems 25 3.7.1 Inventory of Current Climate Risks 25 3.7.2 Short and Long-Term Factors 28 3.8 Response to Climate Change 28 3.8.1 Mitigation and Adaptation Actions for Climate Risks 28 3.8.2 Actions to Harden and Protect Road and Rail Infrastructure 32 3.9 State

11、of Response in Canada 32 3.9.1 Response by Regulators and Government 32 3.9.2 Response by Transit Agencies 33 3.9.3 Response by Federal Research and Standardization Organizations 344 Discussion and Recommendations 36 4.1 Key Climate Risks 36 4.2 Opportunities for Standardization 365 Conclusions 376

12、References 39Appendix A Regional Efforts to Identify Climate Risks to Public Transit across Canada 49Appendix B Federal and Provincial Funding Programs Supporting Identification and Assessment of Climate Risks to Public Transit 52CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT5csagroup.o

13、rgExecutive SummaryCanadas climate is changing at an unprecedented pace,with rising temperatures and an increased prevalence of extreme weather events resulting in short and long-term impacts across the country.Climate change has already caused catastrophic events that have impacted public transport

14、ation in Canada,including floods and severe winter storms that have stranded passenger trains,and melting permafrost that is degrading the quality of vital transportation links to northern Canada.Overall,climate change is expected to increase the costs of building,operating,and maintaining public tr

15、ansit systems.Canadas public transportation sector is also changing in ways that may make it even more susceptible to climate change risks.The trend of decarbonizing public transit systems(e.g.,electrification of passenger rail,and electric and hydrogen fuelled zero emission buses)is changing their

16、risk profile.The sector will require increased investment and improved resiliency to manage risks related to electrical power supply and distribution systems,among others.Transit agencies from across Canada have identified risks related to intense precipitation and extreme heat as the sectors most p

17、ressing concerns.These climate stressors can lead to infrastructure damage,operational disruptions,and in the case of extreme heat,health and safety concerns for people(e.g.,transit operators,construction workers,maintenance personnel,and transit riders).Both of these climate stressors are Canada-wi

18、de concerns that are projected to continue intensifying.This research report addresses four key questions:1.What are the top challenges and issues resulting from climate change currently facing Canadas public transportation sector(focusing on passenger rail and bus systems)?2.How are these challenge

19、s expected to evolve over the near and long-term?3.How are representatives in Canadas public transportation sector responding in the areas of climate adaptation and improving resiliency?4.What areas of opportunity exist for the development of standards to help respond to climate adaptation and resil

20、iency needs in Canadas public transportation sector?The research included a literature review,meetings with representatives from public transit authorities,operators,and related entities across Canada,and two workshops with representatives to present and discuss key research findings.This report ide

21、ntifies ten areas for further exploration in the context of standards development and climate adaptation,which encompass standardization opportunities throughout an asset or system lifecycle to potentially yield improvements in climate adaptation and resiliency(design and planning,construction,opera

22、tions,and maintenance)for Canadas public transit sector.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT6csagroup.org“Canadas warming trend is approximately double the global average.The observable changes resulting from climate change include ice melts and thawing permafrost in the north

23、,a shorter duration of snow cover,and an increase in precipitation,most notably with more rainfall instead of snowfall 2.”1 Introduction1.1 Canadas Changing ClimateCanada is experiencing the effects of climate change,with rising temperatures across all regions of the country.Since the 1950s,Canadas

24、average annual temperature has increased by 1.7C 1.Temperature change has been particularly evident in northern regions,the Prairies,and British Columbia(BC),where the average annual temperature has increased by 2.3C compared to 1948 1.Canadas warming trend is approximately double the global average

25、.The observable changes resulting from climate change include ice melts and thawing permafrost in the north,a shorter duration of snow cover,and an increase in precipitation,most notably with more rainfall instead of snowfall 2.Furthermore,warmer air carries a higher moisture content,so higher tempe

26、ratures can lead to higher intensity rainfall.These changes also affect seasonal events,such as spring thaw and the nature of extreme weather events 2.1.2 Implications of Climate Change to Public TransitClimate change is a mounting concern across Canadas public transportation sector.There is a need

27、for increased adaptation and resiliency to respond to the challenges of climate change,as highlighted by the following recent events:Flooding and landslides in BC leading to train derailments;Winter storms in Ontario cutting power to stations and facilities for regional passenger rail service;Meltin

28、g permafrost in Manitoba leading to unstable track conditions along rail lines connecting to rural and remote northern communities;and Wildfires in northern Alberta leading to the emergency use of public transit vehicles to support evacuation.Overall,climate change is expected to increase the costs

29、of building,operating,and maintaining public transit systems,including passenger rail and urban bus systems.1.3 Background and ObjectivesIn Canada and the United States,there is evidence of a gap in standards to address climate adaptation,as captured in part by the following quote:“Amtrak adheres to

30、 standards defined by Federal entities,such as the US Army Corps of Engineers or FEMA floodplain management ordinances,which often do not include requirements for climate adaptation or future conditions.”3CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT7csagroup.orgThe Standards Council o

31、f Canada(SCC)published the report,Standards in Action:Building a Climate-Resilient Future 4,which identified gaps in standards,codes,and practices that leave Canadians vulnerable to climate change.The report also identified a significant need for investments in standards to ensure that Canadas infra

32、structure is climate ready.Between 2016 and 2021,with funding from Infrastructure Canada,the National Research Council(NRC)led the Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure Initiative(CRBCPI),with the goal to“provide the knowledge needed to integrate climate resilience into building

33、 and infrastructure design,guides,standards,and codes”5.The CRBCPI report highlighted a lack of common guidance on resilience for transit agencies that is specific to the Canadian context 6.With this background,this report addresses the following four key research questions:1.What are the top challe

34、nges and issues resulting from climate change currently facing Canadas public transportation sector(focusing on passenger rail and bus systems)?2.How are these challenges expected to evolve over the near and long-term?3.How are representatives in Canadas public transportation sector responding in th

35、e areas of climate adaptation and improving resiliency?4.What areas of opportunity exist for the development of standards to help respond to climate adaptation and resiliency needs in Canadas public transportation sector?2 Methods2.1 Literature ReviewThe research conducted for this report included a

36、 literature review of publications from industry associations,government reports,and studies from public transit agencies.The literature review highlighted key trends and risks resulting from climate change across Canada,identified key priorities that need to be addressed,and provided information ab

37、out types of response and risk mitigation efforts.The literature review included publications from the Canadian Urban Transit Association,the American Public Transport Association,the Transportation Research Board,and the Railway Association of Canada,along with climate vulnerability and risk assess

38、ments from a variety of Canadian municipalities and transit agencies.All sources are cited throughout this report and listed in the References section.Reports such as Canada in a Changing Climate:National Issues Report 7 and Metrolinxs Climate Adaptation Strategy 8 can help bring into focus the key

39、climate-related risks and issues currently facing the public transportation sector,as well as mitigation efforts,particularly in the Canadian context.While Amtrak is the national inter-city passenger rail service provider of the United States,it also runs service into Canada,connecting into Torontos

40、 Union Station and Vancouvers Pacific Central Station.Due to geographical proximity and similarities between Canada and the United States,there was merit to including climate-related passenger rail issues in the United States to better inform this study.2.2 Interested Parties EngagementThe research

41、also included meetings with a selection of representatives from public transit authorities,operators,and related entities across Canada.This engagement supplemented the information gathered from the literature review.Engagement was prioritized with interested parties who could speak to a breadth of

42、public transit modes under the scope of this study(e.g.,transit authorities that have passenger rail and bus operations)and agencies that are leading the transition of their assets to meet zero emission mandates(e.g.,leaders in fleet electrification)so the risks of new public transit assets and tech

43、nologies could be discussed in the context of near and long-term challenges.A mix of representatives from small,medium,and large transit agencies were also targeted.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT8csagroup.orgTable 1:Representatives in the Engagement ProcessRepresentative

44、 TypeNumber EngagedCity,municipality,transit agency 7Provincial ministry,agency,Crown corporation3Federal agency,organization,Crown corporation,regulator2Standards development organization1Engagement with provincial authorities was also targeted,in order to understand climate resilience and adaptati

45、on issues relevant to road infrastructure,and consequently,bus transportation.Passenger rail transportation generally has dedicated fixed infrastructure(e.g.,rail,track)whereas bus transportation relies on the use of shared road infrastructure,which may be under the jurisdiction of municipal or prov

46、incial authorities.A goal of 10 to 15 meetings were targeted,and a total of 13 one-on-one meetings were held.Table 1 lists the types and numbers of interested parties that were represented in the engagement process.2.3 Validation WorkshopsTo validate the key research findings and the list of top cli

47、mate-related risks to public transit systems across Canada,two workshops with interested parties were held,one virtually(by invitation)and the second as an in-person workshop organized as part of the Transit Rail Association for Canadian Contractors,Maintainers and Standards(TRACCS)conference held i

48、n 2023.Both workshops followed the format of a presentation of the key research findings followed by a discussion period with poll questions,prompts,and an open discussion.Questions were organized into the following three themes of discussion:1.What do you view as key climate change risks?2.What are

49、 you doing to mitigate these risks?3.How could standards support your efforts on climate adaptation?Attendance at the virtual workshop mostly comprised transit agencies and members of government,whereas the TRACCS workshop included slightly different perspectives from interested parties,such as cont

50、ractors,who are more involved in the design and construction stages of infrastructure projects.3 Results3.1 National Perspectives on Climate ChangeThe impacts of climate change do not affect all regions in Canada equally.Section 3.1.1 highlights the key challenges faced by different regions of Canad

51、a under specific climate stressors.3.1.1 Climate Stressors across CanadaExtreme heat.Extreme heat events,often called heat waves,are characterized by high temperatures and humidity.Extreme heat events have been increasing over time.Environment and Climate Change Canada(ECCC)works closely with provin

52、cial and territorial health authorities to issue extreme heat warnings,which can vary depending on the region.Typically,extreme heat alerts are activated when temperatures reach 30C or higher for two or more consecutive days,and minimum overnight temperatures are expected to be at least 14C 9.CLIMAT

53、E CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT9csagroup.orgPeriods of extreme heat in Canada are projected to become more frequent and intense 2.Extreme heat can impact infrastructure,the natural environment,and peoples health and well-being.This has implications for the design of ventilation

54、 and air conditioning(A/C)systems(for buildings,vehicles,and equipment),demands on the electrical power grid(brownouts or blackouts due to the increased draw of power for A/C during heatwaves),and the health and safety of workers and the general public.Wildfire risk and air quality.Prolonged periods

55、 of extreme heat can create drought conditions with tinder-like brush and vegetation.This increases the risk of wildfires,which can be started by lightning strikes or human causes(e.g.,campfires or vehicle exhausts).In Canada,wildfires are most common in two major areas:southern BC and the boreal fo

56、rest,which extends from Alaska to Newfoundland and Labrador 10.However,forested areas throughout the country,such as in northern Ontario and Quebec,also face wildfire risk.Not only do wildfires pose a risk to damaging infrastructure but their smoke also causes poor air quality,which can impact peopl

57、es respiratory health and the ventilation and cooling systems of buildings,equipment,and vehicles.In recent years,wildfires in western Canada have negatively impacted air quality during the summer months.The City of Calgary reported that smoke hours observed at the Calgary International Airport have

58、 increased exponentially over the last 60 years 11.Transit agencies in western Canada have also noted that the historical wildfire season(May to September)has been extended(April to November).The impacts of wildfire smoke in major metropolitan areas,such as Vancouver,have become an annual concern.Se

59、vere storm elements.Across Canada,the occurrence and severity of storms are projected to increase 12.Convective storms(thunderstorms)bring the risk of high winds,short-duration high-intensity rainfall,lightning strikes,and hail.Climate scientists have indicated that hail storms have relatively low p

60、redictability because they cannot be captured in global and regional climate models due to limitations in resolution 12.However,an increase in atmospheric energy and occurrence of severe weather are likely to increase the probability of large hail events.There is a heightened risk in Canadas hot spo

61、ts for thunderstorms,particularly the Great Lakes region and southwestern Ontario,as well as some regions in western Canada and Atlantic Canada 13.Lightning strikes and hail can cause severe damage to buildings and other infrastructure,particularly those that are not properly designed or electricall

62、y insulated.Furthermore,high-intensity rainfall can accompany these storms,which brings an increased risk of flooding.High winds.Atmospheric pressure gradients can form as low-pressure systems that move across the country and lead to high winds and severe storms.ECCC issues severe wind warnings when

63、 winds are sustained in the range of 70 km/h or greater,and a severe thunderstorm warning when wind gusts are 90 km/h or greater 9.Strong winds have the potential to damage infrastructure,down trees and telegraph poles,and cause blackouts due to downed power lines.In addition,strong winds coupled wi

64、th precipitation can cause poor visibility(e.g.,whiteout blizzard conditions due to blowing snow).There is also a risk of short-duration high-intensity winds storms(tornadoes)forming due to specific atmospheric and geographic conditions 14.While CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TR

65、ANSIT10csagroup.orgthe science of tornado formation is not completely understood,tornadoes are most often the result of thunderstorms with persistent updrafts causing wind shear and leading to a rotating column of air.Canada is experiencing more severe windstorms with tornadoes in certain regions of

66、 Ontario(e.g.,Barrie and Ottawa)and Quebec making news headlines in recent years.These tornadoes have been characterized by wind speeds in the range of 180 to 220 km/h 15.Intense or prolonged precipitation.Across Canada,annual precipitation has increased by an average of 20%since 1948 2.The most sig

67、nificant changes have been observed in northern Canada,Manitoba,Ontario,northern Quebec,and Atlantic Canada 16.Precipitation is expected to increase in all regions,but at a faster rate in northern Canada 2.Intense rainfall events are defined when 25 to 50 mm or more rain is expected to fall within o

68、ne hour,although the downpour threshold varies by region 2.Flooding is usually caused by short-duration high-intensity rainfall events,which are expected to become more frequent 2.In addition to flooding,heavy or prolonged precipitation may cause mudslides and washouts 17.Regionally,along Canadas we

69、st coast,the intensity and duration of precipitation can also be affected by atmospheric rivers,which are concentrated bands of moisture carried over from the Pacific Ocean 18.This weather formation notably led to severe flooding in BC during 2021.Other precipitation events such as heavy snow fall o

70、r freezing rain can also cause operational disruptions and damage to infrastructure 19.Intense cold snaps.Although seasonal temperatures are projected to increase across Canada,there is still a risk for cold snaps triggered by cold masses of Arctic air moving south 20.In 2019,a polar vortex hit cent

71、ral Canada with wind chill temperatures in the range of minus 30C to minus 40C.An Alberta clipper or a chinook wind can also bring cold air across the Prairies and into central Canada 21.The requirements that ECCC follows for issuing extreme cold weather alerts varies by region.For example,in southe

72、rn Ontario,extreme cold warnings are issued when temperatures,including wind chill,reach below minus 30C for at least two hours 9.In other regions of Canada,the wind chill threshold warning is set lower,such as minus 40C in BCs central interior,northern Ontario,and the Prairies(i.e.,Alberta,southern

73、 Saskatchewan,and southern Manitoba).Seasonal temperature variations.In recent decades,Canada has experienced an overall increase in mean seasonal temperatures,particularly during the winter months.As a result,winter,snow,and ice cover seasons have become shorter,affecting seasonal snow accumulation

74、,which has decreased by 5 to 10%per decade since 1981 2.Moreover,thinner seasonal ice is replacing perennial sea ice in the Canadian Arctic,and seasonal lake ice coverage has declined across the country.Temperature changes in other seasons are causing drier conditions,increasing risks of drought and

75、 wildfires.Changing seasonal characteristics are also producing more extreme rainfall events,which affects the frequency and magnitude of floods 2.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT11csagroup.orgMelting permafrost.Permafrost refers to the thick subsurface layer of soil that

76、remains frozen throughout the year.Warming seasonal temperatures are impacting geotechnical conditions and heightening the risk of seasonal flooding in Canadas northern regions due to melting permafrost.This is compromising ground stability,which has historically served as a solid foundation that su

77、pports various infrastructure,including roads and rail lines that offer connections into Canadas rural and remote northern communities.Notably,there is overlap between melting permafrost regions and transportation links to northern Manitoba,northern Ontario,and communities in northern Quebec.Storm s

78、urge and sea level rise.The rising sea levels projected along Canadas Atlantic and Pacific coasts are expected to cause an increase in flooding,leading to significant damage to infrastructure,ecosystems,and coastlines.Extreme high water level events are likely to become larger in magnitude and occur

79、 more frequently in areas along Canadas Arctic and Atlantic coasts.A decline in sea ice coverage will result in increased wave action and larger storm surges 2.The impact of storm surge on Canadas three coasts has already been severe,resulting in significant damage to infrastructure and habitats,in

80、addition to the erosion of coastlines.Canada faced ten storm surges between 1970 and 2013 with combined damage costs estimated higher than$27.5 million 22.Atlantic Canada is projected to experience the largest sea level rise,on the order of 75 to 100 cm(mid-century vs.2005 baseline),while Pacific co

81、astal regions are projected to experience a 25 to 50 cm sea level rise 2.3.1.2 Summary of Climate Change StressorsAs highlighted in Section 3.1.1,climate change stressors(or impacts)are expected to increase in severity and frequency,which in turn will increase the risks to Canadas built and natural

82、environments,such as damage to infrastructure and ecosystems,disruptions to transportation systems,operations,economic activity,and safety concerns for the general public 23.There is no standard definition of climate stressors,so for the purpose of this report,a climate stressor is a fundamental cli

83、mate causation factor from the natural environment.For example,precipitation(rainfall)would be a climate stressor,whereas flooding would be a climate risk,developed as a second-order effect of the precipitation.Most climate-related risks are expected to increase as global temperatures continue to ri

84、se 24.Scientific models and projections suggest that these effects will intensify in the future regardless of whether global emissions are reduced 2.Hence,adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to reduce the magnitude of these effects.Climate adaptation is defined and discussed in detail in

85、 Section 3.5.1.Table 2 summarizes key climate change stressors in Canada,their related geographic concerns,and projections in terms of their frequency and severity.Impacts of these stressors are also discussed in Section 3.7.3.2 Examples of Climate Change Events and Impacts in CanadaThis section hig

86、hlights the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events triggered by a changing climate across Canada.These historical examples serve as an indication of the scope and severity of impacts,and draw linkages to the public transit sector.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRAN

87、SIT12csagroup.orgTable 2:Summary of Climate Stressors and Their Projected Changes in Frequency and SeverityClimate StressorConsiderations and Geographic ConcernsFrequencySeveritySevere Storms(lightning,hail)Across Canada,the occurrence and severity of storms are projected to increase due to higher a

88、tmospheric energy from warming temperatures 12.There is a heightened risk in Canadas hot spots for thunderstorms,notably in southern Ontario 12.IncreaseIncreaseHigh WindsThere is limited data and research on the mechanisms and causes of observed and projected changes to wind speeds in Canada 2.Howev

89、er,high winds often accompany severe convective storms for which there is an expected increase in both frequency and severity(refer to considerations for severe storms)12.IncreaseIncreaseHeavy Precipitation(rain)More intense rainfall events are projected,which will increase the risk of flooding,nota

90、bly in urban areas(due to an increased reliance on stormwater management systems)and areas in proximity to water sources.There is also a risk of landslides and washout in areas with large changes in elevation 2.IncreaseIncreaseHeavy Precipitation(snow)Across Canada,there is a projection for less sno

91、wfall and accumulation during winter months as warming temperatures transition snowfall to more rainfall.Less snowfall accumulation may decrease the impact of seasonal spring flooding in some areas 2.DecreaseDecreaseExtreme HeatPeriods of extreme heat are projected to become more frequent and more i

92、ntense across all parts of Canada 2.Dense urban environments can act as heat sinks and further raise the risks associated with heat waves.Extreme heat also increases the risk of drought,wildfires,and poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke 2.IncreaseIncreaseIntense ColdExtreme winter temperat

93、ures are projected to become less cold due to an overall warming mean temperature 2.However,there is still a risk of intense cold snaps and irregular weather patterns bringing cold Arctic air south and across into central Canada.DecreaseDecreaseSeasonal Temperature VariationsWarming temperatures are

94、 projected across all seasons in Canada 2.This will lead to continued thawing of permafrost and increase the risk of spring flooding,avalanches,landslides,and other geotechnical instabilities,particularly in northern Canada 2.IncreaseIncreaseStorm SurgeCoastal flooding risk is expected to increase i

95、n many areas of Canada due to local sea level rise 2.In particular,Atlantic and Pacific Canada will have greater flooding risks in low-lying areas adjacent to the coast.IncreaseIncreaseSea Level RiseThe loss of sea ice in the Arctic and Atlantic Canada further increases the risk of damage to coastal

96、 infrastructure and ecosystems as a result of larger storm surges and waves 2.IncreaseIncreaseCLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT13csagroup.org3.2.1 Storm Surge,Winds,and Coastal Flooding in Atlantic Canada(2022)Atlantic Canada continues to face the impacts of climate change

97、from coastal storms,including powerful noreasters 25,which typically bring severe winds and intense precipitation as they approach land,and can cause storm surge,coastal flooding,and erosion.A noreaster is a large-scale storm that develops in the Atlantic Ocean and travels up the northeastern coast

98、of the United States and Canada.These storms commonly develop during the hurricane season(September to April).In addition to noreasters,storm remnants of hurricanes striking the east coast of the United States often travel up the coast and impact Atlantic Canada.In September 2022,hurricane Fiona mad

99、e landfall in Atlantic Canada and knocked out power to more than 400,000 customers across New Brunswick,Nova Scotia,and Prince Edward Island 26.The storm surge caused flooding which resulted in closure of roadways and damaged infrastructure.High winds,recorded between 100 to 150 km/h,also contribute

100、d to the destruction 26.The cumulative expected cost projected for wind damage over the period from 2015 to 2040 for the Halifax Regional Municipality is estimated to be between$60 to$140 million 7.In 2022,the Province of New Brunswick launched a predictive flood modelling tool,which is available to

101、 the public,to highlight the potential impact of storm surge and coastal flooding caused by 1-in-20-year or 1-in-100-year events,such as hurricane Fiona.The tool brings to attention that major population centres,such as downtown Fredericton,risk being entirely covered by flood water 27.3.2.2 Intense

102、 Rainfall in Ontario(2013)On July 8,2013,public transit service in the Greater Toronto Area was severely disrupted by a summer storm and an intense downpour,as the equivalent of one months worth of rain fell during the evening rush hour 28.This led to track washouts in low-lying areas along some of

103、Metrolinxs busiest passenger rail corridors(Lakeshore West and Richmond Hill).In the Lower Don Lands,flooding stranded approximately 1,400 passengers on a partially submerged GO train for more than five hours as they awaited evacuation by emergency response personnel 29.An absence of high water leve

104、l detection systems along the right-of-way contributed to the passenger train becoming trapped in the valley and unable to reverse course.Although flood waters began to recede later in the evening,there was still notable damage to infrastructure and rolling stock.This event was one of several trigge

105、red by climate change that prompted Metrolinx to begin developing plans for climate adaptation and resiliency(discussed in Section 3.6).3.2.3 Winter Storms in Central Canada(1998,2013,and 2022)Canada has faced a long history of dealing with severe winter storms.This section provides a summary of som

106、e climate-related impacts of severe winter storms in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec.In December 2022,a winter storm crossing Ontario and Quebec with severe winds caused a tree to fall onto Canadian National(CN)tracks,obstructing the tracks and halting a VIA Rail passenger train along the Toront

107、oMontreal rail corridor near Coburg,Ontario.Passengers were stranded on-board for more than 18 hours 30.The storm also caused power outages and road closures across both Ontario and Quebec due to fallen debris damaging power lines and blizzard-like conditions impacting road conditions and visibility

108、.In 2013,an ice storm in southern Ontario caused widespread damage and prolonged power outages that affected approximately 300,000 households and caused delays across the public transit system.Metrolinx has noted that this ice storm emphasized the interdependencies between transit service and electr

109、icity infrastructure,as the power outages impacted the functionality of rail signals,switches,traffic lights,stations,facilities,power supply to overhead catenary for Toronto Transit Commission(TTC)streetcars,and a variety of other critical components in the transit system 28.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIEN

110、CE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT14csagroup.orgThe January 1998 ice storm was one of the biggest natural disasters in Canadian history,triggered by low-pressure warm air carrying moisture from the Gulf of Mexico colliding with a cold Arctic air mass above Ontario and Quebec 31.Over the span of on

111、e week,nearly double the annual amount of precipitation fell in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets across regions from Kingston,Ontario to the Eastern Townships in Quebec.Widespread power outages and road closures halted travel and public transit across the affected regions in both provinces.

112、Approximately 2.6 million people(19%of all Canadians)were impeded or prevented from commuting during the storm and its aftermath.The storm also cut power to 1.4 million hydro customers in Quebec and 230,000 in eastern Ontario.The financial cost of the 1998 ice storm was estimated at around$5.4 billi

113、on 31.3.2.4 Flooding in the Prairies(2013)On April 28,2013,a VIA Rail train passing through Togo,Saskatchewan en route to Churchill,Manitoba had a partial derailment.The locomotives and two leading passenger railcars derailed as they passed over a segment of washed out track.The diesel fuel tanks on

114、 both locomotives also ruptured and ignited a fire 32.The Transportation Safety Board investigation determined that the cause of the derailment was due to a collapse of the subgrade(i.e.,the ground beneath the track).Heavy rainfall coupled with an obstructed culvert caused by ice blockage led to was

115、hout of the subgrade and track instability 33.Greater variability in seasonal temperatures can lead to irregular and more frequent freezethaw cycles,which can compromise subgrade conditions and increase the vulnerability of infrastructure to floods.The Prairies are projected to experience increasing

116、 frequency of seasonal freezethaw cycles leading up to 2050 34.3.2.5 Flooding in Central and Southern Alberta(2013)In June 2013,southern Alberta experienced a 1-in-100-year flood that resulted in$6 billion in damages across the province.A record year of snowfall in the 20122013 winter season coupled

117、 with a heavy rainfall event in June 2013,where communities saw levels of rainfall that were equivalent to half the annual average rainfall in two days,caused rapid snowpack melt and the rise of water levels,which could not be contained by the Bow,Elbow,and South Saskatchewan rivers and their tribut

118、aries.Between June 19 and 21,32 communities declared a state of emergency and 80,000 Calgary residents were evacuated 35.A significant amount of critical infrastructure was damaged as a result of the flood,including washed out bridges and closure of major infrastructure,such as bridges and the Trans

119、-Canada Highway and Highway 1A.The flooding was also determined to be the cause of the Bonnybrook Bridge collapse on June 27,2013,which derailed six Canadian Pacific(CP)freight tanker cars carrying petroleum dilutant 36.3.2.6 Wildfires in Northern Alberta(2016)In 2016,Alberta dealt with the largest

120、wildfire evacuation in the provinces history,forcing over 80,000 people to evacuate from the town of Fort McMurray and surrounding areas.The socioeconomic impact of the wildfire has been estimated at around$10 billion,with$3.8 billion in insurable losses 37.“In June 2013,southern Alberta experienced

121、 a 1-in-100-year flood that resulted in$6 billion in damages across the province.”CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT15csagroup.orgA variety of vehicles,including urban transit buses,were used to assist with the mass evacuation 38,which caused gridlock on Highway 63 as motori

122、sts risked their safety to escape along the only major highway in and out of Fort McMurray.This event called into question the resiliency of Albertas road transportation links to the north and prompted proposals for a secondary highway route to alleviate the dependency on Highway 63 39.3.2.7 Landsli

123、des in British Columbia(2021)Over a three-week period in November and December 2021,heavy rains from an atmospheric river that formed over BC caused landslides,major outages,and washout on the CP and CN rail networks.These outages also impacted passenger rail as VIA Rail has track access agreements

124、to operate service on CN track.A landslide triggered by this heavy rain also caused a VIA train derailment near Hope,BC and the evacuation of 200 stranded passengers 40.Flooding also washed out sections of major roadways,which impacted inter-city bus service.The cost of rebuilding the transportation

125、 infrastructure was estimated at around$9 billion and is likely to be revised upwards 41.3.2.8 Winter Storms and Melting Permafrost in Northern Manitoba(2017)In northern Manitoba,the Hudson Bay Railway connects The Pas to Churchill and to Flin Flon via two major branches.The railway provides essenti

126、al transportation services,including freight and year-round local passenger traffic,for communities in northern Manitoba that have limited alternative transportation options and no year-round road access.Severe winter storms and subsequent spring flooding have led to washout of track in the past,whi

127、ch cut off the primary ground transportation link for many rural and remote northern communities 42.In 2017 and 2018,the railway was closed for 18 months due to the cumulative effects of flooding and permafrost degradation beneath the track 7.The loss of this ground transportation link has also rais

128、ed the cost of living for northern communities as less cost-effective means of freight transportation had to be used to deliver essential goods such as food and medicine.Melting permafrost and ballast continually seeping into the muskeg(grassy bog)are deteriorating the subgrade conditions of the Hud

129、son Bay Railway.Significant capital and maintenance expenditures will continue to be required to maintain even very limited operations for the Hudson Bay Railway.Further expenditures will be required to adapt the track to the changing climate conditions in Canadas north.3.2.9 Wildfires and Heat Wave

130、s in Western Canada(2022)Weather conditions in recent years have produced unusually dry winter seasons and high seasonal temperatures,resulting in extreme heat and wildfires.Historically,the North American fire seasons lasted from July through October,but fire seasons now extend into December and Ja

131、nuary,and start as early as March 43,44.This has a major impact on communities spanning the western United States up through northern Canada as they are challenged with larger and more intense wildfires and increased smoke days 45.Hotter and smokier summers have a significant impact on health of pop

132、ulations,and increasingly impact infrastructure that is not built and designed for prolonged extreme heat and smoky conditions,including buckling of road pavement,damage to streetcar and passenger rail infrastructure 46,47,cancellation of flights due to extreme heat 48,and intense power drawdowns fr

133、om the grid resulting in rolling blackouts and calls for reduction in heating,ventilation,and air conditioning(HVAC)and electric vehicle charging usage 49.3.3 Overview of Canadas Public Transit Sector In addition to the impacts of climate change,the public transit sector itself is undergoing a numbe

134、r of changes and trends that are relevant in terms of climate change adaptation and resilience considerations.Public transit services can be found in all major cities and most towns across Canada.Depending on the nature of a service,Canadians leverage public transit for daily commuting,pleasure,tour

135、ism,or other one-off uses to meet their transportation needs.Table 3 presents a general overview of the types of public transit services offered in Canadian cities and towns.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT16csagroup.orgTable 3:Types of Public Transit in Canadian Cities an

136、d TownsTransit TypeTypical MetricsExamplesConventional BusLand use context:Low to medium density Capacity:55 per bus Operating right-of-way:Mixed trafficEdmonton Transit Route 201 Winnipeg Transit Route 95 Barrie Transit Route 1APara-Transit BusLand use context:Low to high density Capacity:1015 per

137、bus Operating right-of-way:Mixed trafficHalifax Access-A-Bus TTC Wheel-Trans TransLink HandyDARTRegional BusLand use context:Low to medium density,suburban to urban Capacity:55(single level),80(double decker)per bus Operating right-of-way:Mixed trafficGO Transit Route 25 Ontario Northland (TorontoNo

138、rth Bay)Bus Rapid Transit(BRT)Land use context:Medium to high density Capacity:55(single),77(articulated)per bus Operating right-of-way:Mixed traffic or dedicated BRT lanes(painted or separate lanes)Mississauga MiWay Route 100(Airport Express)York Region Transit Viva Brampton Transit ZmStreetcarLand

139、 use context:Medium to high density Capacity:100130 per streetcar Operating right-of-way:Mixed trafficTTC Route 501(Queen St.)Light Rail Transit(LRT)Land use context:Medium to high density Capacity:250300 per LRT Operating right-of-way:Partially or fully separated operating environmentOC Transpo O-T

140、rain Grand River Transit IONSubway/MetroLand use context:High density Capacity:400500 per train(up to 1,100 standing)Operating right-of-way:Dedicated rail corridor TTC Line 1(YongeUniversity)TransLink Canada LineCommuter RailLand use context:Low to medium density,suburban to urban Capacity:160(per t

141、rain car),1,900(per trainset)Operating right-of-way:Dedicated or shared railway corridor(shared with freight traffic)GO Train Lakeshore Line Montreal Exo(exo1)Inter-City Passenger RailLand use context:Varied Capacity:4060 per train car Operating right-of-way:Dedicated or shared railway corridor(shar

142、ed with freight traffic)VIA Rail(OttawaMontreal)VIA Rail(VancouverCalgary)CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT17csagroup.orgNote that passenger and vehicle ferries(e.g.,BC Ferries)were not included in the scope of this study.From a physical infrastructure and assets perspectiv

143、e,a number of components are considered in the design,construction,operation,and maintenance of transit systems.Table 4 outlines the typical components that may be impacted by the effects of climate change.Urban or regional transit services are typically planned and operated by dedicated transit age

144、ncies overseen by dedicated arms of municipal or regional governments focused on transit service planning and provision.Some examples of the organizational structures apparent in Canadian cities or regional areas include:City or municipal department model.Edmonton Transit Service is the branch of Ed

145、montons City Operations department that is responsible for the citys transit services.Here,transit services are planned,designed,and operated by city resources.Other similar examples include Calgary Transit within the City of Calgarys Operational Services department and Halifax Transit within the Ci

146、ty of Halifaxs Transportation department.Table 4:Typical Components of Canadian Public Transit SystemsPublic Transit System ComponentsBuildings Buildings(administration offices)Maintenance facilities Stations(platform,complex,underground)Electrical equipment housings Storage facilities(bus garages a

147、nd depots)Signage(static and dynamic)Linear Infrastructure Road system Track and guideway(rails,ballast,etc.)Culverts and drainage infrastructure Bridges Catenary(electrical)Rolling Stock Buses Trains,LRTs,and subwaysElectrical/Communications Switches,signals,traffic lights Substations Fare collecti

148、on systems Traveller information systemsHuman Resources Drivers and operators Maintenance and construction workers Corporate resources Customer relations TicketingCLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT18csagroup.org Transit agency model.The TTC is responsible for the City of Tor

149、ontos transit services and management of all fleet and assets,with the exception of the roads,where their vehicles operate on a shared right-of-way.In this case,the city is responsible for road maintenance.Other similar examples include MiWay for the City of Mississauga,Grand River Transit for the R

150、egion of Waterloo,and OC Transpo for the City of Ottawa.Crown corporations.TransLink is Metro Vancouvers agency responsible for the regions transportation services,including the planning,design,and delivery of public transit in most cases.TransLink is a Crown corporation with a number of subsidiarie

151、s responsible for service provision of specific lines or management of assets(e.g.,Coast Mountain Bus Company and BC Rapid Transit Company).Other similar examples include Metrolinx for transit services in the Greater Toronto Area and Ontario Northland for transit services connecting to northern Onta

152、rio.In addition,VIA Rail Canada is responsible for operating national passenger rail services across Canada on behalf of the federal government.There is no national transit policy framework at the federal level in Canada nor is there a continuous funding source to cover transit operational costs,lea

153、ving much of the responsibility to plan,design,construct,fund,and operate transit services to the operators themselves.However,the federal government is planning to implement a$3 billion per year stream of permanent funding for public transit by 20262027 through Infrastructure Canada 50.Infrastructu

154、re can be owned by either public or private entities.The segregation of ownership and authority over track and road infrastructure can determine the entity responsible for implementing climate adaptation measures to make infrastructure more resilient.Two notable examples in the Canadian context incl

155、ude:Track infrastructure for commuter and inter-city passenger rail,which may be owned by private freight railways,who handle physical enhancements and maintenance.For example,VIA Rail and Metrolinx both have track access agreements with CN,under which they pay a fee to the freight railway for the r

156、ight to operate passenger trains on CN-owned track 51.Road infrastructure in urban areas,on which public transit buses operate,generally falls under the responsibility of the city or regional municipality(e.g.,maintenance,repair,snow clearing,etc.).Highways fall under the jurisdiction of the provinc

157、ial government ministry,such as the Ontario Ministry of Transportation,and the BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.Highways may be used by urban city buses or by inter-city coaches.“the federal government is planning to implement a$3 billion per year stream of permanent funding for publ

158、ic transit by 20262027 through Infrastructure Canada 50.”CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT19csagroup.org3.4 Emerging DevelopmentsTo assess climate risk and adaptation with a forward-looking perspective,it is important to understand not only climate change but also fundament

159、al changes in Canadas public transportation sector.This section explores the major changes to Canadas public transportation sector,including decarbonization and electrification of public transit systems,implementation of higher order(capacity)public transportation,and inter-city passenger rail conne

160、ctivity.3.4.1 Decarbonization and Electrification of Public Transit Systems3.4.1.1 Urban Buses Public transit agencies in municipalities across Canada are seeing a significant shift in planning for and implementation of alternative fuels and propulsion systems in their fleets.Agencies are taking the

161、ir own approaches to fleet transition and are heavily influenced by local policies mandating greenhouse gas emissions reductions in conjunction with the Government of Canadas 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan 52 and Transport Canadas zero emission vehicle sales target of 100%by 2035 53,and by low-intere

162、st loan programs and zero emission bus funding offered through the Canada Infrastructure Bank 54 and Infrastructure Canadas Zero Emission Transit Fund 55.With public transit fleets rapidly adopting zero emission technologies,public transit agencies will require significant infrastructure investments

163、,such as electrical power supply and distribution facilities,electric bus charging infrastructure,fuel or technology-specific infrastructure design considerations,and alternative fuel fuelling stations.These investments could expose agencies to different planning and operational risks.Furthermore,ba

164、ttery electric buses are generally heavier than internal combustion engine buses 56.The operation of these heavier buses will have a direct impact on the cost of road maintenance,which increases by a power of four(x4)as a function of vehicle weight 57.This could increase the risk of pothole formatio

165、n,road wear,and the need for street closures as repairs are made to the road surface.Opportunities for new pavement compounds and maintenance practices to minimize road wear could arise as a result.3.4.1.2 Regional Express Rail in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton AreaThe Metrolinx GO eExpansion Prog

166、ram is a$20 billion program that will transform the existing GO rail network into a two-way all-day regional rapid rail service with frequencies of 15 minutes or better on core lines 58.In addition,Metrolinx plans to convert several rail corridors from diesel to electric propulsion.The electrified p

167、assenger rail system will include an overhead contact system(catenary),electrical feeder routes,and a number of electrical power supply and distribution facilities(traction power facilities)located in proximity and adjacent to the rail corridors 59.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC

168、 TRANSIT20csagroup.orgTable 5:Major Passenger Rail Projects in CanadaProjectLocationPhaseEglington Crosstown LRTTorontoUnder construction Finch West LRT TorontoUnder construction Hurontario LRT(Hazel McCallion Line)Mississauga and BramptonUnder construction Eglington Crosstown West ExtensionToronto

169、and MississaugaUnder construction Ontario LineTorontoUnder construction Scarborough Subway ExtensionTorontoUnder construction Hamilton LRTHamiltonPlanning;construction scheduled for 2024On-Corridor Works (GO Expansion Program)Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Planning Stage 2 ION LRTWaterlooPlanning

170、O-Train LRT Stage 2OttawaUnder construction;target completion in stages from 2024 through 2026Rseau Express Mtropolitain(REM)MontrealPhase 1 open;Phases 2 and 3 under construction;target completion in stages until 2027 Le Tramway de Qubec Quebec CityPlanning;construction scheduled for 2024VIA High F

171、requency RailToronto to Quebec CityPlanningGreen Line LRT Stage 1CalgaryUnder construction Capital Line South ExtensionEdmontonPlanning;construction scheduled for 2024Metro Line Northwest Extension(Phase 1)EdmontonUnder construction;target completion in 2024Valley Line WestEdmontonUnder construction

172、;target completion in 2027 Broadway Subway ProjectVancouverUnder construction;target completion in 2026 Broadway Subway Project UBC ExtensionVancouverPlanning;identified as a 10-year priority by the Mayors Council and TransLinkCLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT21csagroup.org

173、3.4.2 Higher Order Public Transportation 3.4.2.1 Light Rail Transit in Growing Population CentresTo provide improved public transit service for growing communities and population centres across Canada,many regions are moving toward higher capacity public transit modes.Higher order public transit can

174、 refer to surface level LRT,streetcars,and subways.Table 5 provides a sample of major passenger rail projects that are underway across Canada,in various stages(e.g.,planning,design,and construction).Most are concentrated in Ontarios Greater Golden Horseshoe region around Toronto and Lake Ontario.The

175、 expansion of public transit systems in heavily urbanized areas to include LRT and subways could expose the overall transit system to different climate risks compared to smaller transit services that operate only bus service.Some notable vulnerabilities of higher capacity transit systems to climate

176、change include a greater reliance on electrical infrastructure that is exposed to risks of power outages in periods of extreme heat,flooding in tunnels and underground structures during intense rainfall,and heavy snow or ice obstructing guideways during winter storms.With many transit projects under

177、way across Canada,it is also important to study how climate-related risks can be mitigated through the planning,design,and construction stages.This topic is explored further in Section 3.8.3.4.2.2 High Speed Rail for Inter-City ConnectivityHigh frequency rail(HFR)for inter-city passenger travel betw

178、een southern Ontario and Quebec is currently being studied.VIA HFR would connect Quebec CityMontrealOttawaToronto with passenger rail service running on dedicated tracks(separate from freight traffic)60.The dedicated HFR infrastructure would enable electrification of the passenger rail service 61.Th

179、is change from conventional diesel locomotives to electric propulsion would also introduce new climate vulnerabilities to the inter-city passenger rail service,such as risk of power outages disrupting operations.3.4.2.3 PublicPrivate Partnerships Private sector involvement is also becoming more prom

180、inent in the delivery of public transit service,whether through contracts for the design and construction of new systems(e.g.,LRTs and subways)or through operations and maintenance agreements.Understanding climate risks is particularly important in publicprivate partnership contracts because the par

181、ties need to agree on acceptable terms of risk sharing.Furthermore,these contracts are often set for long periods(e.g.,25 years),during which significant environmental changes could impact the cost and risk profile of the agreement.3.5 Linking Climate Change Issues to the Public Transit Sector3.5.1

182、Climate Change AdaptationThis section explores definitions of climate risk and adaptation and their relevance to public transit service and assets.Transport Canada uses the following definition in their Climate Change Adaptation Plan:“Climate change adaptation involves taking action to reduce the vu

183、lnerability of natural and human systems to actual or expected changes to the climate(e.g.,impacts of the environment on transportation).Adaptation is a form of risk management which can include adjusting activities,decisions and thinking in response to anticipated changes in climate,in order to mod

184、erate harm and take advantage of new opportunities.In other words,adaptation is a form of weather and climate risk management.In the context of transportation,adaptation addresses the impact of the environment on transportation.”62As depicted in Figure 1,the need for climate adaptation can arise fro

185、m changes in either or both of the following two primary factors:CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT22csagroup.org1.Transit assets and operations.Changes to the underlying assets or operations of a public transit system can increase climate vulnerabilities.Currently,there is

186、a significant shift toward transit decarbonization,as discussed in Section 3.4.1.This policy direction could result in new technologies being introduced,which could bring new or increased exposure to climate risk(e.g.,bus operations becoming more vulnerable to power outages due to fleet electrificat

187、ion).In addition,aging infrastructure could also be more vulnerable to climate change as the intensity of weather increases(e.g.,foundation cracking of old bridges).2.Environmental conditions.Changes to the environment in which a transit system operates can also expose climate vulnerabilities.Change

188、s in seasonal temperatures and increased likelihood or severity of extreme weather can affect the risk profile of the public transit system.For example,warmer weather and melting permafrost in parts of northern Canada could destabilize segments of passenger rail,leading to an increased risk of train

189、 derailment or track washout during floods.Changes in the public transit system,environmental conditions,or a combination of the two can heighten existing risks or create new risks.Figure 2 presents a framework for assessing climate risk and adaptation that is used by several leading North American

190、transit agencies in their climate adaptation plans,including the LA Metro 63,and the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority 64.Climate vulnerability comprises the following three elements:1.Exposure,which reflects the likelihood that an asset or service will be exposed to a climate stressor.For

191、example,rail track running along a coastal region might have higher exposure to the risks of storm surge and coastal erosion compared to a track located further inland.2.Sensitivity,which refers to the magnitude of impact resulting from exposure of an asset to a climate stressor or hazard.For exampl

192、e,traction power systems for electrified passenger rail could have a greater sensitivity to power Figure 1:Drivers of change necessitating climate adaptation.Transit assets and operations(transit system driven)changesAging infrastructureElectrificationOther new technologiesIssuesEnvironmental condit

193、ions(climate driven)changesChange in seasonal conditionsIncreased likelihood/severity of weather eventsFigure 2:The composition of climate risk.VulnerabilityExposureSensitivityAdaptive CapacityCriticalityRiskX=CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT23csagroup.org“The resiliency t

194、riangle can be used to communicate the quality of infrastructure degradation and the corresponding time to recover in response to a disruption.”outages triggered by extreme heat compared to road infrastructure for which there is no direct linkage between electrical power supply risk and pavement.3.A

195、daptive capacity,which refers to the ability of a transit system or a particular asset to respond to a climate hazard or event.For example,during a flooding event,a bus route would have high adaptive capacity because buses could be re-routed to avoid the affected area(s).However,a subway line would

196、have low adaptive capacity because flooding(even to a single station on the line)would impact operations along its entirety due to a greater reliance on fixed infrastructure(track)that cannot be easily adapted.Criticality can have varying definitions depending on each transit agency or authority.In

197、a broad sense,criticality refers to the importance of an asset to the functioning of the overall transit system.Criticality can be assessed based on a variety of factors,including the assets connection and reliance to other transportation assets,location of the served population,demographic groups,a

198、nd various socioeconomic factors.For example,a rail line serving a remote northern community with limited transit alternatives could be viewed as a highly critical asset,whereas a single urban bus would have lower criticality as spare vehicles are often available in the fleet of a transit operator.R

199、isk is the combined impact of climate vulnerability and criticality on infrastructure(i.e.,capital assets),the natural environment,and the human users of the asset over its lifetime.Risk can be assessed on an asset-by-asset basis and rolled up to a global perspective of the public transit system and

200、 its performance.3.5.2 Resiliency of InfrastructureResiliency to climate change is distinct from adaptation.It is the ability of social,economic,and environmental systems to maintain performance in response to climatedriven stressors,trends,or disturbances.Systems may respond or reorganize in ways t

201、hat maintain their essential function,identity,and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation and transformation.An extensive review of the literature on resiliency concluded that“resilience is a commonly used,however ill-defined term”that“lacks a widely accepted,standardized defin

202、ition and agreed-on measures”65.The resiliency triangle concept,depicted in Figure 3,draws attention to the temporal element of disruption response 66.The resiliency triangle can be used to communicate the quality of infrastructure degradation and the corresponding time to recover in response to a d

203、isruption.For example,the time for a rail line to be rebuilt and become operational again after a flood CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT24csagroup.orgFigure 3:Resiliency triangle concept (adopted from 66 with authors permission).timet0-disruptiont1-partial recoveryt2-full

204、recovery25%50%75%100%and track washout event.However,in the conversation on climate adaptation,there is an argument that infrastructure should be rebuilt to a higher standard,so it is more resilient to future extreme weather and climate disruptions.In general,resiliency tends to incorporate common t

205、hemes such as disruption,unexpected incidents,recovery,adaptability,minimizing impacts,and redundancy.The conceptualization of resiliency can vary depending on the interested party,which may reflect different elements of control.3.5.3 Community Resiliency and Continuity ManagementThe concept of resi

206、liency extends beyond public transit due to its interconnected nature with other essential services,such as health care and medical services.The preservation of transit service at a minimum threshold during emergency situations is a critical component of business continuity and emergency management.

207、For example,there should be planning and coordination between the city or municipal authorities and the local transit agency to ensure service on essential routes is maintained during extreme weather events,such as priority of snow clearing on transit routes serving hospitals and backup power provis

208、ions during power outages.In addition,public transit assets can provide support in emergency management.For example,transit buses can be used to evacuate residents from areas impacted by flooding or fires,or to shuttle vulnerable populations to cooling centres during summer heat waves.According to t

209、he consultations with interested parties,several transit agencies have already recognized the role of public transit in emergency response and have departments dedicated to developing integrated regional emergency and disaster response plans.Existing standards,such as ISO 22301 67,provide guidance o

210、n developing emergency response protocols and business continuity management.3.6 Current Approaches to Identifying Climate Risks in Public Transit3.6.1 Municipal ApproachesMany of Canadas larger municipalities,and some of the larger transit authorities,have started to formally identify and assess cl

211、imate change risks to municipal infrastructure,and in some cases to transportation infrastructure.Based on a review of existing approaches,municipalities typically begin with an overall climate change strategy for all sectors,which some then follow with a specific assessment of climate change impact

212、s and vulnerabilities for the transportation sector.According to the consultations with interested parties,climate risk and vulnerability assessments can vary in depth and scope,and there is no consistently used assessment methodology.However,a number of these assessments reference ISO 31000 68 and

213、ISO 14091 69,which are used to evaluate climate change impacts on assets,systems,and operations.Assessments can also be informed by Infrastructure Canadas Climate Lens Resilience Assessment tool 70 and the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee(PIEVC)Protocol 71.CLIMATE CHANGE RES

214、ILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT25csagroup.orgAppendix A lists some of the climate change risk assessment approaches and documents in the public transit sector,drawing on regional examples from transit agencies,cities,and municipalities.While most of the larger municipalities have prepared

215、overarching,multi-sector climate risk assessments,few have developed targeted action plans for climate change adaptation and resilience in the passenger transit sector specifically.Furthermore,transit agencies have expressed a need for connecting climate adaptation measures and emergency management,

216、as public transit can provide vital service during crises triggered by extreme weather.3.6.2 Federal and Provincial Approaches With the exception of VIA Rail,the federal government does not have oversight or ownership of public passenger rail or bus transit systems in Canada.However,the federal gove

217、rnment does have a number of agencies and programs that support the identification and assessment of climate change risks.These key programs are highlighted in Appendix B.In general,federal programs are more targeted(i.e.,specific to climate adaptation and public transit)than provincial programs,whi

218、ch tend to have a broader scope on public infrastructure projects and funding streams related to adaptation measures.Provinces and territories that are not included in Appendix B(Newfoundland and Labrador,Prince Edward Island,Ontario,and Alberta)do not have targeted funding programs for climate adap

219、tation at the time of writing this report.However,several of them have funding for greenhouse gas reduction,such as Newfoundland and Labradors Climate Change Challenge Fund 72,Prince Edward Islands Climate Challenge Fund 73,and Ontarios Green Investment Fund 74.Territories are captured under the fed

220、eral Climate Change Preparedness in the North Program 75.In addition to funding programs,the federal government also supports research and analysis in the area of climate change resiliency and standards development through a number of federal entities,including the SCC and the NRC.3.7 Summary of Cli

221、mate Risks to Canadas Public Transit Systems3.7.1 Inventory of Current Climate RisksTable 6 provides a summary of known climate risks to Canadas public transit system,triggered by the climate stressors described in Section 3.1.2,as identified through the literature review and consultations with inte

222、rested parties.This list may not be comprehensive because climate adaptation is an evolving area of study and several interested parties indicated that they are still in the early stages of identifying climate risks and mapping them to their public transit systems.3.7.2 Short and Long-Term FactorsTh

223、e trends in the climate stressors described in Section 3.1.2 can be referenced to see how the resultant climate risks may evolve over time.In general,the only climate-related risks that are expected to decrease in frequency and severity over time are those related to snow and cold weather.As the cli

224、mate continues to warm,it is expected that heavy snowfalls will transition to rain and there will be fewer severe cold snaps 2.In the SCCs Standards in Action:Building a Climate-Resilient Future report,experts from across Canada identified the following top climate-related risks 4:Extreme precipitat

225、ion and flooding;Slow environmental degradation processes(e.g.,melting permafrost,freezethaw cycles);Extreme heat and drought;Sea level rise and coastal hazards(e.g.,erosion,storm surge);Extreme winds;and Wildfire and related interactions at urban interfaces.As public transit systems move toward dec

226、arbonization,there might be greater reliance on electrical infrastructure(e.g.,substations,transmission lines,etc.),which is likely to raise the vulnerability of public transit systems to certain climate-related risks or increase the severity of their impacts.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION

227、 FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT26csagroup.orgTable 6:Summary of Climate Risks to the Public Transit SectorRisk IDRisk DescriptionAdditional ConsiderationsClimate Stressor:Intense Precipitation(IP)IP-1Flooding and washout of roads,bridges,rail lines,and other infrastructure.Canada-wide concern,particularly in lo

228、w-lying areas(flood plains)adjacent to water sources(e.g.,rivers and lakes)and in urban areas with limited stormwater management capacity.IP-2Water ingress to tunnels and other subterranean structures(e.g.,underground stations)causing damage to infrastructure.Canada-wide concern,particularly in dens

229、e urban environments where there are many underground transit systems providing higher order transit services(e.g.,subways in Toronto and Montreal).IP-3Water ingress to housings of electrical systems,leading to short-circuits,power supply interruption,and possible system failures.Canada-wide concern

230、,particularly in low-lying areas(flood plains)adjacent to water sources(e.g.,rivers and lakes)and in urban areas with limited stormwater management capacity.IP-4Impaired visibility to transit vehicle operators.Canada-wide concern.IP-5Loss of traction on roadways or track guideways and physical obstr

231、uctions(e.g.,snow and ice build-up).Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with a history of severe winter weather and heavy snowfall.IP-6Freezing rain causing an accumulation of ice on overhead catenary,leading to loss of power supply for transit vehicles.Canada-wide concern,particularly in re

232、gions with a history of severe winter weather and freezing rain.Climate Stressor:Extreme Heat(EH)EH-1Buckling of track due to thermal expansion and increased derailment risk.Canada-wide concern,particularly in dense urban environments,which act as heat sinks.EH-2Buckling or cracking of pavement due

233、to thermal expansion.Canada-wide concern,particularly in dense urban environments,which act as heat sinks.EH-3Sagging overhead catenary due to excessive heat and thermal expansion.A concern for urban areas with electrified passenger rail.EH-4Failure of electrical systems,such as passenger rail signa

234、ls,switches,and electric bus chargers,due to a lack of ventilation and/or increased load on A/C systems.Risk is further increased if wildfire smoke or poor air quality inhibit or impede the use of ventilation systems.EH-5Failure of electrical systems due to an increased load on the electrical grid(b

235、lackouts or brownouts).Canada-wide concern,particularly in dense urban environments,which act as heat sinks.EH-6Occupational health and safety risks to workers(heat fatigue).Canada-wide concern,particularly in dense urban environments,which act as heat sinks.EH-7Drought and increased risk of wildfir

236、e sparking,leading to damage of infrastructure.Risk is heightened if paired with high winds,which can accelerate the spread of wildfire.EH-8Drought and increased risk of poor air quality caused by wildfire smoke,potentially leading to failure of HVAC systems in buildings,equipment,and vehicles.Canad

237、a-wide concern,although historically this risk has been more prominent in western Canada(e.g.,Alberta and BC).CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT27csagroup.orgRisk IDRisk DescriptionAdditional ConsiderationsClimate Stressor:Intense Cold(IC)IC-1Formation of brittle cracks and

238、structural failure of track infrastructure.Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with colder winters(e.g.,Edmonton and Winnipeg).IC-2Seizure of track switches and other mechanical components.Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with colder winters(e.g.,Edmonton and Winnipeg).IC-3Ice acc

239、umulation on overhead catenary.Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with colder winters(e.g.,Edmonton and Winnipeg).IC-4Reduced operating range of battery electric transit vehicles.Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with colder winters(e.g.,Edmonton and Winnipeg).Climate Stressor:Sea

240、sonal Temperature Variations(STV)STV-1Melting permafrost causing degradation of subgrade and instability of geotechnical conditions.A particular concern in northern Canada,the territories,and provincial regions with historically continuous permafrost.STV-2Increased frequency or severity of freezetha

241、w cy-cles leading to road damage(pothole formation).Canada-wide concern,particularly in regions with milder winters,where there is a higher likelihood for temperature fluctuation around freezing.Climate Stressor:High Winds(HW)HW-1Structural damage to infrastructure.Canada-wide concern.HW-2Debris obs

242、tructing roads and track or guideways.Canada-wide concern.HW-3Impaired visibility to transit vehicle operators,if paired with intense precipitation.Canada-wide concern.HW-4Increased risk of rapid wildfire spread.Canada-wide concern,particularly in western Canada(e.g.,Alberta and BC).HW-5Downed trees

243、 or telegraph poles causing power outages.Canada-wide concernClimate Stressor:Severe Storms(SS)SS-1Increased risk of lightning strikes causing damage to infrastructure or power outages.Canada-wide concern,heightened risk in the Great Lakes region.Roof-mounted equipment may be more vulnerable to ligh

244、tning strikes(e.g.,charging cabinets for electric bus garages and HVAC equipment).SS-2Increased risk of hail damage to infrastructure.Canada-wide concern,heightened risk in the Great Lakes region.Climate Stressors:Storm Surge/Sea Level Rise(SS/SL)SS/SL-1Storm surge causing flooding in coastal areas.

245、A particular concern in low-lying coastal regions in Atlan-tic Canada(maritime provinces),along the St.Lawrence,and in western Canada(BC).SS/SL-2Corrosion of metallic infrastructure(e.g.,track and electrical connectors)due to standing sea water.A particular concern in low-lying coastal regions in At

246、lan-tic Canada(maritime provinces),along the St.Lawrence,and in western Canada(BC).SS/SL-3Coastal erosion and instability of geotechnical con-ditions leading to road or track washout.A particular concern in low-lying coastal regions in Atlan-tic Canada(maritime provinces),along the St.Lawrence,and i

247、n western Canada(BC).CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT28csagroup.orgThe ranking of specific climate-related risks is challenging because exposure and sensitivity characteristics can vary greatly by transit system and region.Furthermore,assets are often part of an interconne

248、cted system,thereby making it difficult to assess risk on an individual basis 4.3.8 Response to Climate Change3.8.1 Mitigation and Adaptation Actions for Climate RisksPrevious sections identified the causes of climate change risks and the approaches being used to identify specific risks for public t

249、ransit.This section summarizes current or considered climate adaptation measures or actions performed by Canadas public transit sector to respond to climate risks.This summary of adaptation actions may help to inform areas of interest for standards development.Overall,there are three different appro

250、aches to address climate risk and resiliency through adaptation:1.Hardening and protecting infrastructure.This approach comprises engineering solutions for assets so they are better able to withstand the impacts of climate change and weather events.Examples include sizing drainage systems to accommo

251、date 1-in-100-year flooding events rather than 1-in-50-year events,and the use of permeable pavement to pass stormwater into underlying soil during heavy downpours.2.Operational and maintenance adjustments.This approach comprises actions to adapt existing operations,procedures,or behaviour to mitiga

252、te or eliminate climate risk.Examples include the use of tensioners on overhead catenary wires to absorb extra slack during hot weather operating conditions,and frequent cleaning of culverts or installation of drainage systems to prevent obstructions to water flow.3.Relocation of infrastructure or s

253、ervices.This approach aims to permanently move an asset or service element out of the impacted or high-risk area.Examples include elevating segments of track,road,or stations in low-lying flood plains,and moving roads inland to avoid coastal erosion.It is common for interested parties to assess clim

254、ate adaptation actions through a lifecycle analysis perspective.As illustrated in Table 7,each climate adaptation approach can be mapped to one or more of the stages in an assets lifecycle:a)planning,design,and procurement;b)construction,including rehabilitation;and c)operations and maintenance.Tabl

255、e 8 summarizes the various climate adaptation actions developed by transit agencies,regulatory agencies,various levels of government,and other interested parties in response to the climate risks profiled in Section 3.7.Each risk is linked to one of three mitigations(i.e.,adaptation actions),along wi

256、th the applicable climate adaptation approaches and lifecycle intervention stages.“In general,the only climate-related risks that are expected to decrease in frequency and severity over time are those related to snow and cold weather.”CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT29csag

257、roup.orgTable 7:Climate Adaptation Approaches and Lifecycle Intervention StagesLifecycle Intervention StageAdaptation ApproachA.Planning,design,and procurementB.Construction,rehabilitationC.Operations and maintenance1.Hardening and protecting infrastructure332.Operational and maintenance adjustments

258、33.Relocation of infrastructure or services333.8.2 Actions to Harden and Protect Road and Rail InfrastructureSeveral innovative adaptation measures have been implemented to protect road and rail infrastructure against the impacts of climate change.This section highlights examples of such adaptation

259、measures in response to risks triggered by intense precipitation and extreme heat.Permeable compounds and hardscape designs to mitigate flooding.Permeable hardscape allows rainfall to pass through to underlying soils or a stormwater reservoir.The hardscape design can include interlocking paving bloc

260、ks(for parking lots or walkways)and permeable asphalt or concrete mixtures.Due to their mixture of coarse aggregates and bonding material,specialty mixes of asphalt and concrete can be more porous at a micro level,allowing water to pass through an absorbing subgrade(e.g.,soil).Permeable concrete mix

261、tures have little to no sand,which increases the void content in the hardened concrete(voids in the range of 15 to 25%)78.Porous concrete has been used on highways to reduce water pooling during intense rainfall events and the risk of vehicles hydroplaning 79.Specialized pavement compounds to mitiga

262、te buckling in heat.Since 1997,the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and larger Ontario municipalities have used a specialized asphalt mixture,based on Ontario Provincial Standard Specifications 80.The mixture considers high and low-temperature performance for extending pavement lifecycles.Asphalt

263、mixtures are specified based on different locations within the province,according to their seasonal temperature variations.Other provinces have also published pavement design guidelines that specify materials and thicknesses on different roadway designations(typically classified based on traffic vol

264、ume),including BCs Pavement Structure Design Guidelines 81.Monitoring subgrade conditions for track infrastructure in relation to flooding and permafrost melt.Railways have a variety of methods at their disposal to actively monitor track and subgrade conditions.Inspection methods that can support id

265、entification of track segments at high risk of washout or collapse due to deteriorating subgrade from intense rainfall events or melting permafrost include:High water detection systems.Sensors along the right-of-way and in nearby drainage systems can monitor water levels and inform the risk assessme

266、nt of potential flooding.Track geometry inspections.Railways conduct regular track geometry lasering inspections to assess any changes in track curvature or elevation,which may indicate changes in the subgrade conditions and the need for maintenance intervention(e.g.,re-ballasting or track replaceme

267、nt).Instrumentation cars.Railways also run specialized railcars outfitted with lasers and video cameras to record data on track geometry and condition.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT30csagroup.orgTable 8:Climate Risks and Associated Mitigation Approaches and Intervention

268、StagesRisk IDClimate RiskMitigation(s)Adaptation Approach(es)Intervention Stage(s)IP-1IP-2IP-3Intense precipitation leading to flooding obstructions or damage to transit assets or infrastructure.Improve drainage system designs for more severe flooding events(e.g.,1-in-100-year vs.1-in-50-year events

269、).1AElevate and/or relocate infrastructure.3A and BReplace under-sized culverts and outdated drainage systems.1BClear debris and obstructions from culverts and other components of the drainage system.2CReroute transit service to avoid impacted flood areas.3CUpdate design specifications for waterproo

270、fing of encasements that house vulnerable electrical equipment.1AInstall high water level detection systems to improve response time and utility of other flood mitigation efforts.2CIP-4Intense precipitation impairing visibility for transit vehicle operators.Issue speed restrictions on operations and

271、 implement use of sensors and other driver-assist technologies.2CIP-5Intense precipitation(snow or freezing rain)causing loss of traction on roadways or track guideways,and physical obstructions(snow and ice build-up).Improve road and guideway cold weather maintenance standards,which may include the

272、 frequency and method of snow and ice clearing(e.g.,plows,chemical compounds,etc.).Improved coordination between municipal services(e.g.,snow clearing)and transit agencies can also help to ensure transit service can function on priority routes(e.g.,links to hospitals).2CIP-6Intense precipitation(fre

273、ezing rain)causing an accumulation of ice on overhead catenary,leading to a loss of power supply to transit vehicles.Update operations and maintenance practices to keep catenary clear of ice(e.g.,Region of Waterloo continually running ION LRT service to prevent ice build-up 76).2CEH-1Extreme heat ca

274、using thermal expansion and buckling of track.Lay track in warmer temperatures and apply low-solar absorption coatings to rail.1BIssue speed restrictions on operations.2CEH-2Extreme heat causing thermal expansion and buckling and cracking of pavement.Design and use specialized pavement compounds.1BC

275、LIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT31csagroup.orgRisk IDClimate RiskMitigation(s)Adaptation Approach(es)Intervention Stage(s)EH-3Extreme heat leading to sagging of overhead catenary.Use tensioning mechanisms on catenary during hot operating conditions.2CEH-4Extreme heat causin

276、g overheating and failure of electrical systems.Improve A/C ventilation in electrical equipment housings,select colour to reflect solar radiation,use solar absorption coatings,provide shade(trees)or relocate electrical systems to cooler areas.1 and 3BEH-5Extreme heat causing failure of electrical sy

277、stems due to an increased load on the electrical grid(blackouts or brownouts).Design the electrical power generation,transmission,and distribution system to be more resilient,and design transit operations with backup emergency power provisions.1AEH-6Extreme heat causing occupational health and safet

278、y risks to workers(heat fatigue).Update occupational health and safety standards for the use of personal protective equipment,more frequent breaks and hydration,and heat exposure monitoring.2CEH-7Extreme heat causing drought conditions and heightening the risk of wildfires sparking(e.g.,from rolling

279、 stock steel wheels or engine exhausts).Increase vegetative clearance in areas adjacent to track and increase stringency on locomotive exhaust cleaning.2CEH-8Extreme heat leading to poor air quality caused by wildfire smoke,potentially leading to failure of HVAC systems in buildings,equipment,and ve

280、hicles.Design ventilation systems with high efficiency particulate air(HEPA)filters.1AIC-1Intense cold causing brittle failure or structural cracks in track infrastructure.Select appropriate material for track design(e.g.,cold formed steel grades).1AIssue speed restrictions for operations in cold we

281、ather conditions(more appropriate for freight).2CIC-2Intense cold causing seizure of track switches and other mechanical components.Use gas-fed heaters for de-icing switches(e.g.,used by Chicago Transit Authority 77)2CIC-3Intense cold causing reduced operating range of battery electric vehicles.Draf

282、t vehicle performance specifications with larger battery sizes and/or diesel auxiliary heaters to compensate for reduced operating range in cold weather.2A and CSTV-1Seasonal temperature variations melting permafrost and causing degradation of subgrade and instability of geotechnical conditions.Reha

283、bilitate subgrade with improved construction techniques.1BCLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT32csagroup.orgRisk IDClimate RiskMitigation(s)Adaptation Approach(es)Intervention Stage(s)STV-2Seasonal temperature variations impacting freezethaw cycles and damage to roads(pothole

284、formation).Improve drainage to avoid standing water damage and apply pavement waterproofing(sealant).1BHW-1 HW-2Severe winds causing damage to infrastructure and risk of debris obstructing roads and track guideways.Improve the design of infrastructure to withstand stronger wind forces(e.g.,aerodynam

285、ics to protect against wind shear).1ATemporarily suspend transit operations during high winds.2CHW-3Severe winds impairing visibility to transit vehicle operators,if paired with intense precipitation.Issue speed restrictions on operations and implement use of sensors and other driver-assist technolo

286、gies.2CHW-4Severe winds leading to increased risk of rapid wildfire spread.Update vegetation management-related standards along rail or road corridors and prepare emergency response protocols.2CHW-5Severe winds knocking down trees or telegraph poles causing power outages.Plan provisions for backup p

287、ower supply(e.g.,generators or batteries).1ASS-1Severe storms causing lightning strikes and power outages.Design buildings with lightning protection and grounds for electrical equipment.1BPlan provisions for backup power supply(e.g.,generators or batteries).2ASS-2Severe storms causing hail damage.De

288、sign modular structures to protect against hail damage(e.g.,overhead canopies and roofing).1BSS/SL-1Storm surge causing flooding in coastal areas.Improve design and construction in low-lying coastal areas by elevating vulnerable assets(segments of infrastructure)and constructing protective structure

289、s(e.g.,dykes and break walls).1 and 3BSS/SL-2Storm surge causing corrosion risk of metallic infrastructure(e.g.,track and electrical connectors)due to standing sea water.Design and select material to mitigate corrosion(e.g.,galvanic pairings,coatings,anodizing).1APlan provisions for the use of backu

290、p drainage systems(e.g.,pumps).2CSS/SL-3Storm surge causing coastal erosion.Improve design and construction in low-lying coastal areas and relocate vulnerable assets inland.1 and 3BN/ASeveral climate stressors interacting to reduce the operational lifespan of an infrastructure asset.Conduct periodic

291、 inspections and improve maintenance practices and lifecycle rehabilitation.2CCLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT33csagroup.orgDetecting track washout and other obstructions.Railways also use the following methods for detecting segments of track impacted by washout,rockfall,a

292、nd avalanches:Slide detection fences.In high-risk areas,railways have wires strung along hillsides that trip the signalling system if broken by an obstruction(e.g.,rockfall in the Rocky Mountains)82.Monitoring of signalling system.Most track is electrified at low voltage for operation of the signall

293、ing system.A track washout could create a break in the low voltage circuitry and signal that there is an obstruction to that segment of track.3.9 State of Response in Canada3.9.1 Response by Regulators and Government Transport Canada has implemented several new regulatory measures to mitigate risks

294、associated with climate change.Two notable actions taken by Transport Canada include mitigating structural damage to rail infrastructure in cold weather operations and new wildfire prevention regulations.3.9.1.1 Mitigating Structural Damage to Rail Infrastructure in Cold WeatherIn 2020,Canadas Minis

295、ter of Transport issued a Ministerial Order under the Railway Safety Act 83 to reduce the risk of train derailments during cold weather through railway companies developing a Winter Operation Risk Mitigation Plan 84.This approach refers to a range of temperatures for restricting train speeds rather

296、than relying on a specified period of calendar days during the winter months,which recognizes the rise in abnormal seasonal temperature fluctuations that may occur outside of the traditional November 15 to March 15 dates.In addition,the Ministerial Order includes measures to:Improve track inspection

297、 and track maintenance practices;Require further speed restrictions if warranted due to inspection results;Require risk mitigation measures to account for rapid temperature fluctuations;Require new technology to detect a rail break;and Require approval of the plan by a professional engineer 85.3.9.1

298、.2 Mitigating the Risk of Wildfires from Rail OperationsIn 2022,Transport Canada published new rules on railway fire prevention and mitigation during the fire season,which runs from April 1 to October 31 86.The scope of these rules include:Establishing temperature thresholds at which train speed res

299、trictions are issued and supplemental track inspections are required;Increasing stringency on locomotive exhaust cleaning and inspection;and Requirements for transportation operators to develop an Extreme Weather Fire Risk Mitigation Plan,which must be submitted to Transport Canada and reviewed ever

300、y 5 years 87.At a minimum,an Extreme Weather Fire Risk Mitigation Plan should include the following measures to:Monitor fire risk levels;Detect and report fires along track right-of-way;Manage vegetation and the removal of combustible materials or debris from and adjacent to the right-of-way;Mitigat

301、e fire hazards during line work maintenance activities and respond to any fires resulting from such activities;Assess conditions and implement appropriate mitigations during active fire events on or encroaching on the right-of-way to maintain safe railway operations,including adjustments to train op

302、erations;and Respond to detected or reported fires,including immediate action to suppress the fire,communication with and/or deployment of appropriate emergency response resources 87.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT34csagroup.org3.9.2 Response by Transit AgenciesAs noted i

303、n Section 3.6.1,several large Canadian transit agencies have already started responding to the need for climate adaptation,similar to leading transit agencies in the United States,by preparing climate vulnerability assessments(or risk assessments).This involves understanding the environmental condit

304、ions in which their transit systems operate,identifying long-term climate projections,and mapping climate stressors and risks to individual assets of their transit systems(e.g.,mapping flood-prone areas to the location of stations and track).Transit agencies have noted a correlation between developi

305、ng climate risk and resiliency plans and being successful in competitive federal funding applications.Federal programs often have tight application timelines,and transit agencies that have already completed climate vulnerability assessments are in a better position to respond to funding criteria.As

306、a result of climate vulnerability assessments,some transit agencies are adapting their best practices for climate adaptation.For example,Metrolinx has revised its track laying temperature to mitigate the effects of track buckling during extreme heat.Traditionally,Metrolinxs track laying temperature

307、was 32.2C.The climate-induced increase in the average summertime daily temperature has prompted Metrolinx to adopt a higher temperature for rail laying of 37.7C for all new track.Metrolinx assessed this preferred rail laying temperature by comparing it to future maximum temperatures from ClimateData

308、.ca projections 88.Some transit agencies are also starting to incorporate climate risk assessment into the formal design review process of new infrastructure,while other agencies are doing this assessment on a case-by-case basis,notably for major infrastructure projects.Canadian transit agencies are

309、 also forming working groups via industry associations to promote knowledge sharing on transit decarbonization and climate adaptation.For example:The Ontario Public Transit Association(OPTA)has established the Zero Emission Bus(ZEB)Committee.One of its key topics is the need to better understand the

310、 risks associated with new low or zero emission technologies and how they interface with change climate conditions(e.g.,how electric bus fleets will operate in extreme heat or extreme cold conditions,and their risk of exposure to power outages)89.The SCC has formed a Hydrogen Codes and Standards Wor

311、king Group that has three task forces that focus on:a)production,b)transportation and storage,and c)end-use applications,including transportation 90.Other working groups focus on topics such as reviewing technologies to monitor flooding risks along track rights-of-way,and revisions to operating and

312、maintenance procedures.Industry associations include OPTA,the Canadian Urban Transit Association,and the Railway Association of Canada,which have relevant working groups established.According to the consultations with transit agencies,the constant technological advancement of low and zero emission t

313、echnologies poses a challenge for the formation of standards.However,transit agencies are sharing within working groups their best practices and lessons learned from the deployment of new transit vehicles(e.g.,battery electric and hydrogen buses).3.9.3 Response by Federal Research and Standardizatio

314、n Organizations3.9.3.1 Standards Council of CanadaIn the area of climate change sustainability,the SCC launched a Standards to Support Resilience in Infrastructure Program in 2016,which supports projects ranging from publishing reports that identify priorities and best practices for climate change a

315、daptation to supporting the work of national and international standards committees to funding the development of new standards and updating existing ones 91.The SCCs report Standards in Action:Building a Climate-Resilient Future 4 identified gaps in standards,codes,and practices that leave Canadian

316、s vulnerable to climate change.The report also identified a significant need for investments in standards to ensure Canadas infrastructure is climate ready,and emphasized that more than 100 standards are out-of-CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT35csagroup.orgdate and require

317、 updates to reflect Canadas current environmental conditions 4.The report acknowledged that Canadas responses to climate change are maturing,but there are still gaps to be addressed 4.Furthermore,it noted that standardization could aid the development of cost-effective solutions for responding to cl

318、imate change but indicated that more effort will be required to promote awareness of standards and to build capacity to understand how standards can be applied 4.Overall,Canadas standardization efforts need to be more inclusive of diverse perspectives and must understand that the urgency and type of

319、 response to hazards triggered by climate change can vary greatly across Canadas vast geography 4.In 2021,the SCC also commissioned a Guide for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation Considerations into Canadian Standards 92,which is specifically relevant to standards development organizations.In 202

320、2,the federal government announced an additional$11.7 million over 5 years for the Standards to Support Resilience in Infrastructure Program 91.3.9.3.2 National Research CouncilThe NRC is a federal agency reporting through the Minister of Innovation,Science and Industry,and is Canadas largest federa

321、l research and development organization.Among other areas,the NRC carries out research and provides guidance to support the federal governments climate change resilience agenda(as laid out in the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change 93).As previously mentioned,the NRC led the CR

322、BCPI with the goal to“provide the knowledge needed to integrate climate resilience into building and infrastructure design,guides,standards,and codes”5.In 2019,the CRBCPI program published a detailed report on the state of practice and knowledge gaps on climate change adaptation,with a wide range of

323、 observations related to the public transit sector,among other sectors 6.The CRBCPI report noted that bridges are generally designed to the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code,which is managed by CSA Group.However,there is no standard approach for determining the impact of future climate loads or th

324、e stresses of simultaneous extreme weather events on bridge performance.In addition,despite relatively standardized methods for road design and construction,there are still possibilities for improving pavement materials,road condition monitoring,and repair methods.Futhermore,railway engineering in C

325、anada typically relies on standards published by the American Railway Engineering and Maintenance-of-Way Association(AREMA),which may not be fully applicable to Canadas environmental conditions.Climate issues and weather events,such as flooding,are addressed in some aspects of AREMA standards but of

326、ten in a static reference,so they may not reflect the dynamic nature of a changing climate and environmental conditions.The CRBCPI report also stated that:“A complicating factor in providing guidance on climate change adaptation is that there is no single standard for rail transit infrastructure in

327、use across Canada.The different systems were installed at very different times and have different legacy equipment and standards.Climate change resilience guidance will therefore need to be in the form of best practices,rather than codes or standards.”6 In 2022,the Canadian Government announced a ne

328、w Climate Resilient Built Environment initiative,led by the NRC,which will provide knowledge to adapt public infrastructure where necessary,inform changes to building and infrastructure codes,and create guidelines,standards,and technical solutions for climate resilience.The initiative has been provi

329、ded with$35 million in funding over five years 91.Under the Climate Resilient Built Environment initiative,the NRC has a 4-year working program within their Automotive and Surface Transportation Research Centre that is focused on safety,efficiency,and resilience of road,rail,and off-road modes 94.As

330、 part of this program,there is a monthly meeting with transit agencies across Canada to discuss and share information on resilience concerns in their operations.CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSIT36csagroup.orgOne of key themes emerging from the NRC meetings is a lack of comm

331、on guidance on resilience for rail transit agencies that is specific to the Canadian context 6.As noted,most agencies use AREMA standards or guidance from the American Public Transport Association,which may not always be suited to the Canadian climate.For example,Canadian rail operators typically fa

332、ce more challenges with ice and snow build-up than their American collagues.These increasing challenges could potentially affect operations and safety at crossings and switches,as well as overhead catenary and other power system sources.4 Discussion and Recommendations4.1 Key Climate RisksThe findin

333、gs indicate that climate risks related to intense precipitation and extreme heat,as shown in Table 9,are the most pressing concerns for the Canadian public transit sector.Both of these climate stressors are Canada-wide concerns that are projected to continue worsening,which suggests that the benefits of developing or improving standards to account for these risks would be wide-reaching.In addition