1、Understanding migration trends in recent graduates entering the professional workforceUnited StatesFall 2024Talent HubsR Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 20242Executive SummaryTalent is the bedrock of the office market,forming a pipeline of new end-users that sends over 1 million graduates

2、from classrooms to workspaces on an annual basis.Each year,it is estimated that the newest graduating class comprises roughly 3%of total office users in the U.S.and are among the most frequent attendees.Research surrounding remote work in the past five years has underscored the importance of office

3、attendance for new graduatesoffice attendance is especially beneficial to younger employees in driving faster development of skills,increasing visibility from superiors,stronger social connections,and is increasingly correlated with quicker financial advancement and stronger job security.The markets

4、 where graduates are establishing their careers provide key insights on the health of different office markets in the U.S.and indicate which are positioned for outpaced growth in the upcoming cycle.University ecosystems and a strong pipeline of graduates have the potential to transform secondary or

5、tertiary markets.For example,The University of Texas at Austin has been a critical factor in making that market one of the nations leading technology hubs.The university has increased enrollment in recent decades,expanded their programs for software engineering and computer programming,and establish

6、ed a startup incubator for technology companiesall driving their ranking among U.S.universities to rise more than 20 spots in the past 10 years.In the wake of the pandemic,knowledge workers have seen considerable volatility in workplace locations and company attendance policies.Extremely low interes

7、t rates and a robust job market in 2021-2022 introduced more locational flexibility than office workers have ever seen,but higher interest rates and widespread adoption of hybrid return-to-office mandates has begun to normalize that flexibility.The Class of 2024 will be the first graduating class si

8、nce the onset of the pandemic that will predominantly be expected to regularly attend the office at the outset of their roles.While we gradually move toward normalized market conditions,cyclical pressures are still present.Major cities have seen varying impacts to their labor markets,with some slowi

9、ng much faster than others depending on industry composition.Housing markets similarly have divergedwhile some markets have seen a notable pullback in rent prices and home values,the majority are still increasing,while mortgage rates remain more than double where they were just a few years ago.These

10、 two factors job availability and cost-of-living have taken on greater importance for the Class of 2024 and have modified the typical distribution of graduates that has occurred over the past decade.Understanding trends in graduate locations helps illuminate the future of the office marketmost new g

11、raduates will never relocate to a different metro area after establishing their career.These decisions,in many cases,reflect a multi-decade commitment to reside in that market,and gradually influence the quantity and quality of office that makes up a particular market.1.64 million Class of 2024 grad

12、uates entered office-centric roles45%relocated to a different metro after graduation28%relocated to a different state Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202432024 Talent Hub RankingsRank MarketScore1New York100.02Los Angeles93.23San Francisco Bay Area92.14Boston91.15Chicago90.26Washington,DC8

13、7.37Atlanta86.08Philadelphia84.49Seattle/Puget Sound83.210Houston82.711Dallas-Fort Worth81.412Austin81.013Denver79.814Miami/South FL78.315San Diego78.216Phoenix77.417Raleigh-Durham76.318Orlando75.119Charlotte74.720Detroit74.721Pittsburgh73.222Columbus73.023Cincinnati72.924Indianapolis72.825Minneapol

14、is-St.Paul71.5Rank MarketScore26San Antonio71.427Salt Lake City71.428Tampa71.029St.Louis71.030Portland70.531Nashville70.232Cleveland69.833Baltimore67.634Sacramento67.035New Orleans66.736Kansas City64.937Richmond64.338Las Vegas64.139Jacksonville63.840Ann Arbor,MI63.841Milwaukee63.242Birmingham,AL63.0

15、43Madison,WI62.644Hartford,CT62.345Providence,RI62.246Grand Rapids62.147Buffalo,NY61.848Tucson,AZ61.749Louisville61.650Hampton Roads61.3Note:Markets are defined at the MSA level.New York includes entire New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA,Los Angeles includes entire Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA;Wa

16、shington,DC includes entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria MSA.SF Bay Area includes San Francisco and San Jose MSAs;Raleigh-Durham includes Raleigh and Durham MSAs.Proximity to universitiesGraduate location factorsJob availability and wagesCost-of-livingQuality of life Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.202

17、4Talent Hubs 20244Talent is one of many important factors driving site-selection decisionsReal Estate FundamentalsClimate Risk/Energy Cost&AvailabilityTalent AvailabilityAccessibilityMigration/DemographicsTelecom InfrastructureTax IncentivesBusiness EnvironmentTransit/ParkingAvailable Space and Amen

18、itiesCompetitive LandscapeBrand ImageProximity to Customers&SuppliersWorkforce DiversityAir ConnectivityPublic Safety Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 20245Geography and university presence determine a markets role in producing or attracting talentBostonNew YorkLos AngelesSF Bay AreaPhilade

19、lphiaAtlantaChicagoWashington,DCAustinRaleigh-DurhamPhoenixSeattleDenverDallasSan DiegoMiamiPittsburghCincinnatiIndianapolisHoustonColumbusBaltimoreOrlandoSacramentoMinneapolisSalt Lake CitySt.LouisNew OrleansNashvilleTampaClevelandDetroitProvidence,RICharlotteHampton RoadsOklahoma CityDes MoinesPor

20、tlandBirminghamRichmondLas VegasLouisvilleMilwaukeeJacksonvilleMemphisBoiseAlbuquerqueKansas CitySan AntonioGrand Rapids7075808590951005060708090100Talent Magnet IndexTalent Engine IndexTalent Engines produce many graduatesTalent Magnets attract graduates from other metrosMost metro areas fit into t

21、wo major profiles:Talent Engines,generally anchored by university cities or towns,which produce a disproportionate number of graduates for their size;and Talent Magnets,major metropolitan areas and larger cities with a robust job market and broad social networks that attract these graduates as they

22、enter the workforce.Talent Magnets like Chicago and Los Angeles generate less university graduates in their immediate area but attract pipelines from nearby metros or other markets entirely to maintain robust pools of skilled talent.Talent Engines like Boston and Raleigh-Durham have large student po

23、pulations at prestigious universities,producing many new workers annually to feed into the labor market.True talent hubs possess traits of both Talent Engines and Talent Magnets.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 20246By virtue of job availability,most major office markets attract a dispropor

24、tionate amount of college grads0%2%4%6%8%10%12%New YorkLos AngelesChicagoDallas-Fort WorthHoustonWashington,DCAtlantaMiami/South FLPhiladelphiaPhoenixBostonSF Bay AreaSeattle/Puget SoundSan DiegoDenverOrlandoCharlotteAustinPortlandPittsburghCincinnatiInland EmpireDetroitMinneapolisTampaBaltimoreSt.L

25、ouisSan AntonioSacramentoLas VegasGraduate share vs.total population shareShare of U.S.populationShare of Class of 2024 grads43%of U.S.population;67%of 2024 graduates10%of U.S.population;6.7%of 2024 graduatesIndustrialization and urbanization have concentrated economic activity in the U.S.in major m

26、etropolitan areas.Talent migration similarly follows a more concentrated distribution:two-thirds of 2024 grads settled in the 21 largest talent hubs,despite comprising just 43%of the overall U.S.population.As hubs for office-centric industries like technology and finance,job availability for college

27、 graduates is robust in these areas.By continuing to attract top-tier talent,these cities create a positive feedback loop,which continues to drive innovation and elevated productivity,leading to stronger economic outcomes over the long term.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024True Talent HubsTalent Hubs 2

28、0247True talent hubs capture vastly more graduates than their share of overall populationNew York absorbed 47,804 more Class of 2024 graduates than its share of the U.S.population would predict.The Inland Empire absorbed 21,440 less graduates than its share of the U.S.population would predict(80,000

29、)(60,000)(40,000)(20,000)-20,000 40,000 60,000New YorkBostonSF Bay AreaChicagoWashington,DCAtlantaLos AngelesDenverAustinSeattlePhiladelphiaSalt Lake CitySan DiegoOrlandoRaleigh-DurhamCincinnatiIndianapolisCharlotteHoustonPhoenixNew OrleansColumbusPittsburghClevelandNashvilleRichmondDallas-Fort Wort

30、hPortlandMiami/South FLBirmingham,ALTucson,AZGrand RapidsRochester,NYBuffalo,NYSt.LouisLouisvilleSan AntonioHartford,CTMemphisDetroitJacksonvilleMilwaukeeKansas CityPiedmont Triad,NCTampaHampton RoadsProvidence,RILas VegasSacramentoMinneapolis-St.PaulBaltimoreSW FloridaInland EmpireGraduate absorpti

31、on compared to population share Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 20248Emerging markets characterized by elevated job growth and affordabilityAtlanta:#7(+1)Austin:#13(+1)Dallas:#9(+1)Miami:#12(+1)San Diego:#14(+2)Philadelphia:#8(+1)Phoenix:#15(+2)Orlando:#18(+3)Cincinnati:#22(+9)Pittsburgh:#

32、24(+2)Columbus:#25(+2)Raleigh-Durham:#21(+2)Indianapolis:#28(+2)Madison,WI:#38(+4)5 10 15 20 25 30 35 402015201620172018201920202021202220232024Market RankHistorical graduate share rankingsRising Sun Belt markets:Rising Midwest markets:+31%Knowledge worker job growth since 2015U.S.average=+14%Gatewa

33、y Markets=+11%116.0Cost-of-Living IndexU.S.average=100Gateway Markets=14095.4Cost-of-Living IndexU.S.average=100Gateway Markets=140+10%Knowledge worker job growth since 2015U.S.average=+14%Gateway Markets=+11%Note:The above reflects overall share of graduates and is not necessarily equivalent to ove

34、rall Talent Hub ranking,which also encompasses the quality of universities feeding into a markets talent pool.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 20249Housing costs are impacting graduates location decisionsBostonPhiladelphiaCincinnatiWashington,DCRaleighOrlandoPittsburghColumbusBaltimoreIndia

35、napolisDallasTampaAtlantaClevelandMinneapolisPhoenixSt.LouisSan DiegoMiamiDetroitKansas CityNashvilleHoustonCharlotteNew YorkLos AngelesAustinChicagoPortlandDenverSeattleSan Francisco7595115135155175-0.9%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%Cost of living index(100=U.S.average)Class of 2024 graduate

36、share vs.10-year averageCost of living impactGrowing ShareAvg.COL:103.5Shrinking ShareAvg.COL:114.9Rising inflation and a softening labor market caused the Class of 2024 to more heavily factor cost-of-living into their relocation decisions.Many of the markets attracting growing shares of this years

37、graduates were lower-cost markets:the average cost-of-living in markets that saw a growing share of graduates in 2024 was 103.5,compared to an average of 114.9 for markets that saw their share of grads decline against the 10-year average.A regression analysis implies that cost-of-living reflected ab

38、out 15%of the variance in grads relocation decisions.When excluding Boston,regression implies that cost-of-living explains 43%of the variance in grads locations.This was the strongest factor in decision-making outside of proximity to university.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202410Labor m

39、arket opportunity had a large impact on West Coast and tech-heavy marketsBostonPhiladelphiaCincinnatiWashington,DCRaleighOrlandoColumbusBaltimoreIndianapolisDallasTampaAtlantaClevelandSacramentoMinneapolisPhoenixSt.LouisSan DiegoMiamiSan AntonioDetroitKansas CityNashvilleHoustonCharlotteNew YorkLos

40、AngelesAustinChicagoPortlandDenverSeattleSan Francisco-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-1.0%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%Job postings,last 12 months vs.5-year averageClass of 2024 graduate share vs.10-year averageLabor market impactGrowing ShareYoY job postings:-23%Shrinking ShareYoY job p

41、ostings:-29%One of the primary drivers of graduates relocation decisions is job availability.Compared to their peers in recent graduating classes,2024 graduates faced a slowing job marketevery major city saw the number of job postings for knowledge workers decline in the last year.Still,the markets

42、that attracted a growing share of graduates in the past year saw slightly more resilience,with job postings declining 23%in those areas compared to 29%elsewhere.Labor markets had a more uniform decline over the past year,with most markets job postings falling between 20%and 35%from the previous year

43、,so the correlation with talent location outcomes is weaker:excluding Seattle,regression implies that cost-of-living explains just 5%of the variance in graduates locations.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.20240%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Share of graduates in metro areaGraduate share by market and region10-year aver

44、ageClass of 24Talent Hubs 202411Overall,the East Coast captured more graduates at the expense of the West Coast and Sun BeltWest Coast10-year average:16.0%Class of 2024:14.0%Sun Belt/Mountain10-year average:10.5%Class of 2024:9.5%Great Lakes/Midwest10-year average:11.0%Class of 2024:10.8%Southeast10

45、-year average:7.8%Class of 2024:7.5%Northeast10-year average:21.2%Class of 2024:21.9%Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024EastCentralWestTalent Hubs 202412Across regions,smaller markets saw greater activity in 202432.0%7.1%3.4%5.4%19.0%5.3%16.5%7.9%3.4%33.3%7.7%3.9%5.4%18.4%5.9%15.2%7.0%3.3%0%5%10%15%20%25

46、%30%35%Gateway Secondary TertiaryGateway Secondary TertiaryGateway Secondary TertiaryShare of graduates in metro areaGraduate share by region and market type10-year averageClass of 24 In 2024,graduates across regions showed a stronger proclivity to remain in smaller markets,with 13.1%of graduates re

47、siding in tertiary markets,compared to a 10-year average of 12.1%.Secondary markets fell from 34%to 33.1%,and gateway markets declined marginally from 54.1%to 53.9%.Lingering availability of remote work,a weaker job market,and significant cost-of-living increases in major metros drove more graduates

48、 to remain in their university metros for an extended period or relocate to smaller,less costly markets.Many of the graduates locating in tertiary markets or delaying relocation are expected to eventually migrate to gateway markets or major secondary markets amid more favorable labor market conditio

49、ns and more robust wage growth.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202413Emphasis on affordability also drove more graduates to suburban regions MarketAvg.Share in Principal City2024 Share in Principal CityAtlanta66.6%66.1%Austin87.0%83.9%Baltimore43.2%44.2%Boston64.7%64.1%Charlotte79.2%76.3%C

50、hicago73.4%70.8%Dallas46.7%42.3%Denver74.8%69.8%Houston75.0%72.8%Indianapolis72.1%69.3%Kansas City57.1%55.2%Los Angeles58.9%58.0%Miami45.6%47.8%Minneapolis53.9%53.0%Nashville75.2%73.4%New York66.6%64.2%Orlando70.4%70.9%Philadelphia61.2%59.9%Phoenix48.7%41.5%Portland70.2%68.2%San Antonio86.7%87.5%San

51、 Diego77.2%77.5%San Francisco72.1%67.1%Seattle71.4%70.4%Tampa55.2%59.2%Washington,DC43.1%44.3%Average65.1%62.8%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%AustinSan AntonioCharlotteSan DiegoNashvilleHoustonDenverChicagoSan FranciscoIndianapolisSeattleOrlandoPortlandNew YorkAtlantaBostonPhiladelphiaLos AngelesKansas CityTa

52、mpaMinneapolisPhoenixDallasMiamiBaltimoreWashington,DCAverageMost markets have less graduates residing in primary cities in 2024Typical share of MSA2024 share of MSAApproximately 38,000 more graduates in suburbs than a typical year Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202414High-quality talent

53、remains more concentrated in gateway marketsNote:University profiles determined by US News rankings:Elite=ranked in top 20 universities nationally;Top-Tier=ranked 21-100 nationally;Ranked=ranked 101-500 nationally.-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000Number of 2024 graduatesTalent qua

54、lity distributionEliteTop-TierRanked44%of 2024 graduates77%of 2024 Elite graduatesTop 10 Markets Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202415Technology talent is becoming more integrated in non-tech industriesCompanyIndustryTech grad hires,last 10 yearsJP MorganFinance4,977WalmartRetail4,047Capi

55、tal OneFinance3,485BloombergMedia3,417Lockheed MartinAerospace/Defense3,129General MotorsAutomotive2,691RaytheonAerospace/Defense2,172EpicHealth1,848BoeingAerospace/Defense1,651FidelityFinance1,564ExpediaTravel&Rec.1,561Northrup GrummanAerospace/Defense1,408OptumHealth1,276American ExpressFinance1,2

56、44FordAutomotive1,203TeslaAutomotive1,188Bank of AmericaFinance1,156USAAInsurance1,097VisaFinance1,043Booz Allen HamiltonAerospace/Defense1,039Wells FargoFinance1,033The Home DepotRetail1,013AccentureProf.Services963ComcastTelecom932SpectrumTelecom913State FarmInsurance90357%56%56%55%53%50%46%44%40%

57、35%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024Share of technology roles hired by technology companiesThe digital transformation in recent decades has made technology talent increasingly important to non-tech industries.Finance has seen the emergence of FinTech companies and th

58、e rise of digital banking,the media industry has relied heavily on tech talent to accommodate the shift to streaming services,the defense industry is investing in the growing need for cybersecurityall of these factors are driving more demand for software engineers and other traditional technology ta

59、lent.Over the past 10 years,the share of technology talent being hired by technology companies has fallen from 57%to just 35%in the past year,exacerbated by elevated cyclical pressures that technology companies have faced since interest rate hikes began in 2022.Fortunately for the technology industr

60、y,the overall amount of tech talent in the U.S.is also increasing,with more software engineers as a share of each graduating class for the past 10 years.Top Non-Tech Employers of Tech Talent Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202416Sustainability and ESG focus becoming more evident in talent

61、and hiringAs ESG objectives become more widely adopted among major employers,the labor market is beginning to see more resources dedicated to advancing those objectives.New hires for sustainability-oriented roles have grown each year for the past decade,and in 2024 accounted for 1 in 924 rolesa smal

62、l share,but nearly double the rate of 2015.Similarly,graduates who are advertising sustainability or ESG-oriented skills have grown in each of the past 10 years,from 1 in every 622 individuals to 1 in 248.While ESG and sustainability roles remain marginal at the entry-level,there is a greater abunda

63、nce of roles at more senior levels.As private and public companies increasingly make commitments to sustainability or other ESG objectives,ESG specializations are expected to continue to grow as a share of the labor market.0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%201520162017201820192020202

64、1202220232024Share of graduating classESG skills and hiringHired for sustainability roleHas ESG-related skills Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202417Importance of physical attendance for new employees drives down remote optionality for entry-level rolesRemote job availability in office-cen

65、tric roles shows a significant bifurcation by seniority:a much lower share of entry-level roles are advertised with remote optionality compared to the industries at large.Academic research into the impacts of remote work have largely shown that while productivity is lost in some cases,the larger cos

66、t comes from employees losing on-the-job training and mentorship opportunities that promote development and increase a workers productivity over time.Losing access to these benefits has more consequential impact on younger employees,driving less opportunity for remote work among that cohort.In recen

67、t months however,that spread is narrowing.While physical attendance carries greater importance with entry-level roles,those are also the roles most capable of being performed remotely since they rarely include managerial responsibilities.Because of that,while remote job availability has generally be

68、en declining in office-centric roles,it has continued to trend slightly upwards for entry-level roles.0%5%10%15%20%25%Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Remote share of job

69、postingsEntry-LevelSenior-Manager LevelDirector Level Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Talent Hubs 202418Sources and MethodologySources:JLL Research,Lightcast,National Council for Education Statistics,U.S.News,Moodys AnalyticsNotesGraduate counts and residing markets are derived from self-reported educ

70、ation,employment and location user data on LinkedIn.Self-reported user data is not guaranteed to be accurate in all cases but has a high degree of integrity in the context of LinkedIn.Graduate counts include both undergraduates and graduate students who listed 2024 as their graduation year.Data incl

71、udes Class of 2024 graduates who are employed in knowledge worker roles.Individuals who enter graduate school,or enter non-office-centric roles including healthcare,education,arts and blue-collar fields are excluded.Graduates from online universities,international universities,or graduates who reloc

72、ated internationally after graduation,are also excluded.Total talent hub index reflects both quantity and quality of graduates who reside in a particular metro area.To account for the premium for higher-quality talent,graduate counts received a multiplier which correlated with U.S.Newss 2024 Best Co

73、lleges rankings.Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024Research authors19Research at JLLJLLs research team delivers intelligence,analysis and insight through market leading reports and services that illuminate todays commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrows challenges and opportunities.Our more

74、 than 550 global research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries,producing unrivalled local and global perspectives.Our research and expertise,fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world,creates a

75、competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.Jacob Rowden Senior Manager,Office RAbout JLLFor over 200 years,JLL(NYSE:JLL),a leading global commercial real estate and investment management company,has helped clients buy,build,occupy,manage

76、and invest in a variety of commercial,industrial,hotel,residential and retail properties.A Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$20.9 billion and operations in over 80 countries around the world,our more than 105,000 employees bring the power of a global platform combined with local expertise.D

77、riven by our purpose to shape the future of real estate for a better world,we help our clients,people and communities SEE A BRIGHTER WAYSM.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit .Copyright Jones Lang Lasalle IP,Inc.2024This r

78、eport has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed,which are inherently unpredictable.It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable,but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guar

79、antee that the information in the report is accurate or complete.Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice.Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be ma

80、terially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements.Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report.No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report.Scott HomaHead of Property Sector Research,A