ACCA2020年Q1全球經濟狀況調查報告（英文版）（16頁）.pdf

1、GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q2, 2020 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, Institute of Management Accountants July 2020 About ACCA ACCA is the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. Were a thriving global community of 227,000 members and 544,000 future members b

2、ased in 176 countries that upholds the highest professional and ethical values. We believe that accountancy is a cornerstone profession of society that supports both public and private sectors. Thats why were committed to the development of a strong global accountancy profession and the many benefit

3、s that this brings to society and individuals. Since 1904 being a force for public good has been embedded in our purpose. And because were a not-for-profit organisation, we build a sustainable global profession by re-investing our surplus to deliver member value and develop the profession for the ne

4、xt generation. Through our world leading ACCA Qualification, we offer everyone everywhere the opportunity to experience a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. And using our respected research, we lead the profession by answering todays questions and preparing us for tomorrow. Fin

5、d out more at About IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) IMA, named the 2017 and 2018 Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/ International Accounting Bulletin, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession.

6、Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA (Certified Management Accountant) and CSCA (Certified in Strategy and Competitive Analysis) programs, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 125,000

7、 members in 150 countries and 300 professional and student chapters. Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit: www.imanet.org Introduc

8、tion THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY (GECS), IS THE LARGEST REGULAR ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ACCOUNTANTS AROUND THE WORLD. The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants),

9、 is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. The GECS has been conducted for over 10 years. Its main indices are good lead indicators of economic activity and provide a valuable in

10、sight into the views of finance professionals on key variables, such as investment, employment and costs. Fieldwork for the Q2 2020 survey took place between 29 May and 12 June 2020 and attracted 1070 responses from ACCA and IMA members, including over 100 CFOs. The COVID-19 questions gathered 805 r

11、esponses. ACCA and IMA would like to thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey. It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy. 3 The Q2 Global Economic Conditions survey (GECS) reflects the

12、 scale of the global recession now under way. Globally orders and employment indices have plummeted to record lows in the latest survey, consistent with the view that this is the most severe recession in decades. By contrast, global confidence recovered slightly from the record low reached in the Q1

13、 survey (Chart 1). This provides some optimism that recovery is in prospect in the second half of the year, notwithstanding the collapse in activity through the first half. The change in measured concern that customers and suppliers may go out of business underlines the current extremely poor global

14、 economic situation. Both these measures had trended sideways at relatively low levels in recent years but shot up to record highs in Q2 to 23% for suppliers and 47% for customers (Chart 2). There was only a modest dip in orders in the Asia Pacific region, reflecting the earlier profile of lockdown

15、and subsequent easing this year. The largest falls in orders are in North America and Western Europe a sign of the collapse in activity in these regions where lockdowns lasted through much of the quarter. Orders also fell markedly in the Middle East, hit by weaker oil prices as well as directly by C

16、OVID-19 effects (Chart 3). The mixed picture on confidence contrasts with the universally gloomy readings on activity indicators such as orders and employment. (Chart 4). Recovery in confidence from Q1 lows can be interpreted as optimism about economic prospects over the second half of the year. Thi

17、s is especially likely in Asia Pacific which emerged first from lockdowns and where confidence has rebounded strongly to its highest level in a year. Executive summary CHART 1: A grim global picture CHART 2: Fears that stakeholders may go out of business Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

18、 35 40 45 50 GLOBALLY ORDERS AND EMPLOYMENT INDICES HAVE PLUMMETED TO RECORD LOWS IN THE LATEST SURVEY, CONSISTENT WITH THE VIEW THAT THIS IS THE MOST SEVERE RECESSION IN DECADES. THE Q2 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY (GECS) REFLECTS THE SCALE OF THE GLOBAL RECESSION NOW UNDER WAY. Q2 2012Q2 2014

19、Q2 2016Q2 2020Q2 2018 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) GECS Global indices Q2 2012Q2 2014Q2 2016Q2 2020Q2 2018 GECS: index of concern about customers going out of business GECS: index of concern about sup

20、pliers going out of business 4 CHART 3: Orders fall in most regions, especially Europe and North America 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Western Europe C the economy is now fully one-quarter smaller than at the end of 2019. Over the second half of the year recovery in advanced economies is likely as lock

21、downs are gradually lifted. (The US CBO has pencilled in a rebound of 7.5%). Extreme intra-year volatility is unprecedented in economic history. As we move into the second half of the year, are there signs of a return to growth? Official and survey data for May tend to show continued contraction in

22、activity but at a more moderate pace than in April. For example, the purchasing managers indices (PMIs) in the US, UK and euro-zone all remained at levels consistent with falling output in both manufacturing and services in May. But in all cases the latest monthly readings were above the record lows

23、 Chart 16: Service sector activity plunges more than manufacturing THE SERVICES SECTOR HAS SUFFERED THE BIGGEST CONTRACTION, WHEREAS IT IS THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR THAT HISTORICALLY FALLS FURTHEST AS EXCESS INVENTORIES TRIGGER SHARP CUTS IN PRODUCTION. THE YEAR 2020 IS GOING TO BE THE WORST FOR THE

24、GLOBAL ECONOMY SINCE AT LEAST THE SECOND WORLD WAR. 50 = expansion 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Manufacturing Services May 2016Nov 2016May 2017Nov 2017May 2018Nov 2018May 2019Nov 2019May 2020 contraction Source: World Bank June 2020 (Chart 1.7 D) Global Purchasing Managers Indices 10 Real US GDP level

25、 quarterly CBO projections the space of a few months. In the US the unemployment rate has risen to 13.3% in May from below 4% at the start of this year. Elsewhere, the more widespread use of furlough schemes in Europe has so far prevented similar steep rises in unemployment. But as these schemes are

26、 withdrawn in coming months big rises in unemployment look inevitable. In its latest Economic Outlook in June the OECD forecasts that the euro are unemployment rate will rise to 11% by the end of this year, from around 7% a year earlier. High unemployment rates, along with continued social distancin

27、g restrictions, are likely to contribute to consumer caution and subdued spending. True, household savings rates have shot up during the crisis, as spending has fallen more than disposable incomes. (Monthly data show the US personal savings rate at 33% in April). But beyond a reduction to meet pent

28、up spending it is not clear how far savings rates will fall and therefore by how much consumer spending will rise back towards pre-crisis rates. Businesses are unlikely to boost their spending in this highly uncertain climate: cost cutting and reducing debt are likely to take priority over increased

29、 investment. Hence the need for policy stimulus. Despite the huge cost of fiscal support measures during lockdowns, advanced economies do have the policy leeway to provide a fiscal boost, especially with government bond yields at such low levels. (Germany has already announced a stimulus, including

30、a temporary reduction in the rates of VAT and incentives to buy electric cars). Stimulus packages are likely in the US, the UK and the European Union in the second half of the year. Central bank policy will continue to be exceptionally easy: interest rates close to zero or even negative combined wit

31、h aggressive quantitative easing (QE). The European Central Bank and Bank of England both increased their planned QE totals at their June policy meetings. Chart 17 illustrates a possible scenario of recovery in advanced economies. (The data are from the CBO projections for the level of US real GDP).

32、 The key message is that, after an initial strong rebound, the pace of recovery slows and pre-crisis levels of GDP will not be reached until the second half of 2022. reported for April. A similar pattern has emerged for retail sales in the US and the UK, both of which recorded strong rises in sales

33、in May. High frequency data, such as debit and credit card transactions, Google mobility data, and road traffic flows have shown a continued upward trend through June. The easing of lockdowns, which began in May and has since gathered momentum, points to a recovery in economic activity in the second

34、 half of the year. Pent up demand in certain areas, for example for consumer durables, will give growth an initial burst thirdquarter growth may see quite a strong rebound in activity in many economies. However, beyond the third quarter the picture is less clear. Generous fiscal measures designed to

35、 support incomes through lockdowns will be increasingly withdrawn as those lockdowns are eased. It is at this point that the sustainability or otherwise of economic recoveries will become apparent. It is highly likely that policy stimulus mainly fiscal to sustain recovery will be necessary. The econ

36、omic shock of the COVID-19 crisis is shifting unemployment rates from close to record lows late last year to extreme highs in Chart 17: A possible recovery scenario $bn (real, 2012) THE KEY MESSAGE IS THAT, AFTER AN INITIAL STRONG REBOUND, THE PACE OF RECOVERY SLOWS AND PRE-CRISIS LEVELS OF GDP WILL

37、 NOT BE REACHED UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF 2022. Source: CBO May 2020 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 18,500 19,000 19,500 20,000 Q4 2018Q2 2019Q4 2019Q2 2020Q4 2020Q2 2021Q4 2021Q2 2022Q4 2022 Q4 2019Q3 2022 11 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q2, 2020 Emerging Markets EMs are being hit e

38、specially hard by the COVID-19 crisis. Like all advanced economies, they are suffering the domestic demand impact of efforts to contain the spread of the virus. But most EMs lack the fiscal capacity to provide significant support to their households and businesses. The International Monetary Fund (I

39、MF) estimate that non- health fiscal measures among EMs have averaged 2.5% of GDP compared with 7.7% of GDP in advanced economies. Moreover, there are several additional channels through which economic harm is being transmitted to EMs. These additional sources are likely to persist into next year as

40、 they will require sustained recovery in advanced economies before their effects lose potency. First, many EMs are heavily reliant on exports to advanced economies or of commodities, where demand and prices have fallen significantly as the global economy has entered recession. In addition, overseas

41、tourism accounts for a significant proportion of GDP in many EMs, so the near-ending of overseas visits is having a material effect on these countries. Other economies rely on remittances from migrant workers overseas to support domestic activity but the value of remittances has fallen significantly

42、 as those workers have lost their jobs or been furloughed in their host country. Financial market developments were initially very difficult for EMs, reflecting a sharp increase in risk aversion as the crisis developed. Portfolio outflows, higher borrowing costs and weaker currencies against the US

43、dollar all contributed to much tighter financial conditions. Recently however, conditions have eased although they remain tighter than before the crisis extensive QE from central banks in both advanced and some EM economies have contributed to this improvement. China China is in a slightly different

44、 economic situation, being the first country to lockdown in January and then to start relaxing measures from March onwards. Reflecting this, Chinas GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, but second quarter data is likely to show some recovery. The manufacturing PMI for China is signalling ex

45、pansion in May, in contrast to all advanced economies that have such surveys. Retail sales data show a 2.8% fall over the 12 months to May, but this is well above the 20% annual declines recorded over January and February. Indeed, some categories, such as personal care and telecoms, are showing posi

46、tive annual growth rates in spending. Nevertheless, GDP growth this year will be the weakest in 40 years at around 1% according to the World Bank (2020): some restrictions remain in place, disrupting workplace supply, and exports will be a drag on growth given the parlous state of the rest of the gl

47、obal economy. CHART 18: Emerging markets lose virtually all tourists Source: World Bank June 2020 (Chart 1.17 E) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Percentage deviation from 5-year average 201820192020 OVERSEAS TOURISM ACCOUNTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF GDP IN MANY EMERGING MARKETS, SO THE NEAR- END

48、ING OF OVERSEAS VISITS IS HAVING A MATERIAL EFFECT ON THESE COUNTRIES. TABLE 1: World Bank emerging market GDP forecasts % CHANGE ON A YEAR EARLIER 201920202021 Emerging and developing economies3.5-2.54.6 East Asia and Pacific5.90.56.6 China6.11.06.9 South Asia4.7-2.72.8 India4.2-3.23.1 Pakistan1.9-

49、2.6-0.2 Middle East and North Africa-0.2-4.22.3 Sub-Saharan Africa2.2-2.83.1 Nigeria2.2-3.21.7 Latin America and the Caribbean0.8-7.22.8 Source: World Bank June 2020 12 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q2, 2020 and will depend on developments in the response to the virus, such as treatments or a vaccine, as well as on economic factors such as policy and consumer and business confidence. More generally the degree of so-called scarring will become apparent in coming quarters; how much permanent damage has been done to eco