普華永道：2020年COVID-19對英國媒體產業影響報告 - （英文版）（20頁）.pdf

1、COVID-19 Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry April 2020 PwC We find ourselves in extraordinary times. The COVID-19 pandemic is having a fast and dramatic impact on the way we live our lives and in turn on businesses and the economy. What started with restrictions on travel and group g

2、atherings has extended to forced closures of schools and retail/cinema/leisure outlets. Much of the workforce is now working from home with only limited travel allowed outside. While the impact of these changes is being felt across every part of the economy, we wanted to highlight the impact it is h

3、appening on the Entertainment and Media industry. There are obviously great uncertainties about how the COVID-19 crisis will develop, including how long lockdown will last. Therefore, all views presented here are our best views at this time (early April 2020) of the directional impact on the media s

4、ector, with a greater focus on the short term impact. Each year we publish the Entertainment & Media Outlook, which provides historical and forecast revenue figures for the sector, and we have largely used the sub-sectors in that publication for our sub-sector impact analysis. We hope you find this

5、publication interesting. Please do let us know if you have any questions, or would like to discuss topics raised in more detail. Introduction 2 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Mark Maitland Partner, Media and Entertainment Leader +44 7788 870900 Dan Bunyan Director, Medi

6、a Strategy +44 7734 958765 Summary of key impacts on the media industry PwC The UK media industry is currently facing significant disruption from COVID-19 Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Summary of key impacts of COVID-19 across the UK media industry COVID-19 is causing widespread

7、 disruption globally, creating both a healthcare crisis and an economic crisis for many countries. Although governments are providing emergency support to a number of industries, businesses and individuals, there is likely to be a negative impact on all economies This is resulting in significant dis

8、ruption to business operations, including the workforce and supply chains, as well as a dampening of overall consumer demand and business confidence Within the UK media sector specifically, some of the key challenges are due to restrictions on travel, movement outside the home, social gatherings in

9、public and weakening advertiser demand this is causing significant short-term disruption for many sub-sectors (e.g. Cinemas, B2B events, OOH advertising, TV advertising) However, the new at home environments have stimulated heightened demand for other digital entertainment media services (e.g. Video

10、 Games, OTT Video), as well as higher levels of demand for internet access/ data requirements There is also likely to be an acceleration of longer-term structural changes, including changing consumer media consumption habits, use of digital platforms, and reduction in traditional physical media and

11、advertising models The media industry has proved highly agile through previous economic and technological cycles, pivoting towards new digital platforms, subscription models, and data-led services And despite the multitude of changes, the media industry remains highly creative, generating compelling

12、 and immersive content to engage consumers, and tailor communications to its new environment Although the full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unclear, media fundamentals remain strong, so we expect the UK media industry to return to growth quickly once movement restrictions lift and the eco

13、nomy returns to full capacity 4 April 2020 Many companies are grappling with falling advertiser demand and/or the challenge of how to reach consumers when they are staying at home. However, the current environment is playing to the strengths of some E&M propositions and others are finding new ways t

14、o engage their consumers. The UK E&M industry has proved its agility in previous economic and technological cycles, and the high levels of creativity and innovation should support the sector through these challenging times. - Mark Maitland, Media and Entertainment Leader, PwC UK “ PwC The short-term

15、 impact varies by sub-sector: most face significant challenges, but a few are benefiting 5 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Relative short-term impact of COVID-19 across UK media sub-sectors Note: short-term considered as the current lockdown period plus 1-3 months afterw

16、ards, allowing time for consumers and businesses to return to more normal levels of movement/activity OTT Video Traditional Pay TV TV advertising B2B Events B2B Information Out of Home Cinema Live music Books Radio advertising Internet access Video games Internet advertising eSports VR More sub-sect

17、ors are likely to be negatively impacted, particularly those linked to advertising and those dependent on physical locations Music/ podcasts Newspapers Magazines PositiveNegativeNeutral Vs prior trajectoryVs prior trajectory Key trends across different sub-sectors PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summary o

18、f key impacts/ trends by UK media sub-sector 7 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-sectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term trends Newspapers and magazines Reduced advertiser demand overall, negatively impacting revenues. Likely to be a greater focus

19、 on measurable digital channels with high reach (some publishers are well placed) Reduced print circulation (due to difficulties with print distribution, and consumers restricted in visiting physical retail outlets particularly travel retail outlets for magazines), impacts both circulation revenue a

20、nd indirectly advertising revenue (given lower reach) Increased demand for trusted news content, which may support uptake of online subscriptions in the short-term (albeit consumer focus is currently on latest health news which is not behind paywalls rather than other editorial content) Potential fo

21、r more rapid structural decline in this segment, as retailers strategies change, consumers lose regular buying habits, and become increasingly dependent on digital channels Closure of specific titles would also reduce content and ad inventory Out of Home advertising Reduced advertiser demand overall

22、, negatively impacting revenues In addition, significantly restricted public movements outdoor also limits reach/ effectiveness of OOH ads (e.g. airports, shopping malls, cinemas, transport, roadside) Potential issues to be resolved given many fixed rental contracts with landlords (and payment of bu

23、siness rates on many sites), and how operators seek to mitigate/ share ad revenue losses with other value chain participants Operators will likely delay new digital upgrade programmes, which will have a knock on impact for future growth rates Despite a short-term impact, the OOH sector is likely to

24、return broadly to historical levels However, the reduced investment in Digital OOH sites may slow (or delay) some of the future growth rate, coupled with some advertisers moving to (and staying in) mobile channels +-0 x +-0 x PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summary of key impacts/ trends by UK media sub-s

25、ector 8 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-sectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term trends B2B EventsPolicies on reducing social gatherings and travel have meant immediate impact with large scale closures across the events industry. Most events busi

26、nesses have stopped events in March / April / May. Many are however being postponed to Sept-Nov, rather than cancelled, which may limit the impact Many exhibitors / visitors will be retained for these new dates (assuming that large gatherings and travel can happen by then), but there are cost implic

27、ations as well as calendar crowding for exhibitors, visitors and venues plus a risk of cannibalisation of some other Q3/Q4 events Level of impact on the sector will depend on the length of lockdown period, and the order / speed in which elements of it are lifted combined with peoples willingness to

28、travel / attend large scale / international events post lockdown Switching to video conferences, webinars, webcasts, etc. may replace some smaller face to face events going forward - but these are harder to monetise currently The key risk is that longer-term exhibitor attendee patterns structurally

29、change (e.g. caused by shows shifting their slot in the calendar), reducing revenue growth outlook B2B Information In many cases, subscription is the major revenue stream, which offers some protection. Advertising revenues will be impacted in the short-term Performance will vary by the end-sector th

30、at information is provided into, and how critical information is for business insight, performance, contracting, news, etc. It will be harder to deliver new subs sales / upsell, and there is likely to be additional pricing pressure on renewals Over time, the sector generally tracks the overall econo

31、mic environment, and so will be exposed if decline in GDP is large/ longer-term +-0 x +-0 x PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summary of key impacts/ trends by UK media sub-sector 9 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-sectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term

32、 trends CinemaCinemas have been closed from the early in the lockdown period (by government decree) which has impacted all cinema all revenue streams Already, some filming production delays mean films are released later than planned (both this years slate, but also next years slate), delaying box of

33、fice revenues (although with cinemas closed, these delays are now a positive) With so many people at home, some producers are using straight-to-home or accelerated to home distribution for previously planned cinema releases (e.g. Trolls World Tour, Military Wives) There may be delays to cinema upgra

34、des (e.g. new digital screens, 3D/4D etc.) which may impact future growth rates Use of straight to home strategies could change the well established film window approach, which could impact cinemas exclusive first window Consumer price sensitivity for cinema outing vs alternative in- home models mig

35、ht become more entrenched OTT VideoThe large increase in time at home should be a positive driver for uptake of OTT services, supported by the timely launch of the Disney + subscription service The economics of straight to home distribution might be attractive for some film producers/ distributors O

36、TT will also benefit from decline in cinema attendances (and some movies coming direct to OTT) as consumers use OTT as alternate channel for new film content However, some consumers facing financial difficulty will be more price sensitive/ less likely to take multiple TV content packages/ platforms

37、The current environment may create a step change in usage of OTT platforms - and given they are only c.5-10/month they are a often a small enough expenditure to maintain/ not to cancel If lockdown extends longer term, this might impact new content creation +-0 x +-0 x PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summa

38、ry of key impacts/ trends by UK media sub-sector 10 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-sectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term trends Traditional Pay TV Increased time at home may increase demand for TV content (however in the UK many people will a

39、lready have a Pay TV subscription package, so the upsell opportunity to alternative content packages such as kids may be more relevant) The reduction in live sports will likely impact new sign-ups, with many existing customers likely to turn off sports packages temporarily (or providers pausing thes

40、e packages). TV companies may seek refunds from sports rights owners depending on the extent of delay/ cancellation caused Customers facing more financial challenges will likely become more pricing sensitive at renewals Pricing pressure should ease when sports return to the screen and the economy im

41、proves Growth in OTT platforms (e.g. for film content, or more flexible content options) may drive a structural shift away from pay TV platforms +-0 x PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summary of key impacts/ trends by UK media sub-sector 11 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-s

42、ectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term trends TV AdvertisingIncreased time at home will almost certainly increase TV viewership, and improving advertising reach/ effectiveness However, advertiser demand will be lower, particularly in hard-hit sectors that are traditionally majo

43、r advertisers on TV e.g. travel and leisure, betting, and many retail segments. Much of this ad spend wont be replaced by other categories (albeit a small offset from govt advertising on Covid-19 health advice) The reduced sporting calendar will impact some peak TV advertising events, and with trave

44、l restrictions halting much content production, in time this will mean less new content Part of increased TV viewership is also focused on news or public service broadcasters (where ad funded models are less prevalent) Some medium term risk around new content, given production has currently halted i

45、n many cases Although the sector is likely to bounce back strongly once normal economic conditions resume, there may have been some advertiser shift out of this category and into alternative digital channels Live musicGovernment policies on reducing social gatherings included closures for live music

46、 venues (impacting all revenue streams) The total impact on the sector will partly depend on how long government measures last, with the summer outdoor live music season a key driver of overall industry revenues Although some smaller live events can be streamed digitally (social media, radio, etc.),

47、 the revenue opportunities are significantly lower The experience of live music events are more difficult to replicate, and as such, we would anticipate these to return to historical levels (once people are comfortable with large scale events) +-0 x +-0 x PwC Sub-sector deep-dives Summary of key imp

48、acts/ trends by UK media sub-sector 12 April 2020Likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry Sub-sectorKey issues/ short-term trendsShort-term impactLong term trends Radio advertising Radio will see some significant benefit from audiences at home, but offset by less car travel and office/reta

49、il work Some audience increases are for news/ alerts (partly on ad-free public service broadcast radio stations) Programming can largely continue from home which supports continuity of service Ad revenues impacted by overall weaker advertiser demand, particularly from local advertisers (with a small offset from govt advertising on Covid-19 health advice) Short-term impact, but will then likely revert to longer-term historical trends Music and podcasts It is currently unclear if there will be a significant change in spend on streaming services e.g. Spotify. Consumers wil