思科：2018-2023年度互聯網報告（英文版）（35頁）.pdf

1、White paper Cisco public Cisco Annual Internet Report (20182023) Executive summary The Cisco Annual Internet Report is a global forecast/analysis that assesses digital transformation across various business segments (enterprise, small-to-medium business, public sector, and service provider). The rep

2、ort covers fixed broadband, Wi-Fi, and mobile (3G, 4G, 5G) networking. Quantitative projections are provided on the growth of Internet users, devices and connections as well as network performance and new application requirements. Qualitative analyses and assessments are also provided in four strate

3、gic areas: applications, security, infrastructure transformation, and empowering employees and teams. Global Internet adoption and devices and connection Internet users Nearly two-thirds of the global population will have Internet access by 2023. There will be 5.3 billion total Internet users (66 pe

4、rcent of global population) by 2023, up from 3.9 billion (51 percent of global population) in 2018. Devices and connections The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the global population by 2023. There will be 3.6 networked devices per capita by 2023, up from 2.4

5、networked devices per capita in 2018. There will be 29.3 billion networked devices by 2023, up from 18.4 billion in 2018. M2M connections will be half of the global connected devices and connections by 2023. The share of Machine-To-Machine (M2M) connections will grow from 33 percent in 2018 to 50 pe

6、rcent by 2023. There will be 14.7 billion M2M connections by 2023. The consumer segment will have nearly three-fourths share of total devices and connections by 2023. Globally, consumer segments share of total devices and connections will be 74 percent, with the business segment claiming the remaini

7、ng 26 percent. Internet of Things (IoT) by application Within the M2M connections category (which is also referred to as IoT), connected home applications will have the largest share and connected car will be the fastest growing application type. Connected home applications will have nearly half or

8、48 percent of M2M share by 2023 and Connected car applications will grow the fastest at 30 percent CAGR over the forecast period (20182023). 2020 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. White paper Cisco public 2020 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Mobility growth Over 70

9、percent of the global population will have mobile connectivity by 2023. The total number of global mobile subscribers will grow from 5.1 billion (66 percent of population) in 2018 to 5.7 billion (71 percent of population) by2023. 5G devices and connections will be over 10 percent of global mobile de

10、vices and connections by 2023. By 2023, global mobile devices will grow from 8.8 billion in 2018 to 13.1 billion by 2023 1.4 billion of those will be 5Gcapable. The fastest growing mobile device category is M2M followed by smartphones. The mobile M2M category is projected to grow at a 30percent CAGR

11、 from 2018 to 2023. Smartphones will grow at a 7 percent CAGR within the same period. Global network performance Accelerating speeds Fixed broadband speeds will more than double by 2023. By 2023, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 110.4 Mbps, up from 45.9 Mbps in 2018. Mobile (cellular) speeds

12、 will more than triple by 2023. The average mobile network connection speed was 13.2 Mbps in 2018 and will be 43.9 Mbps by2023. 5G speeds will be 13 times higher than the average mobile connection by 2023. The average 5G connection speed will reach 575 Mbps by 2023. Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices

13、will triple by 2023. Globally, the average Wi-Fi speeds will grow from 30.3 Mbps in 2018 to 92 Mbps by 2023. Tiered pricing (Mobile) The usage per month of the average top 1 percent of mobile users is steadily decreasing. Globally, the top 1 percent of mobile users generated 5 percent of mobile data

14、 in 2019. Back in 2010, the top 1 percent of mobile users generated 52 percent of mobile data. Mobile applications Nearly 300 million mobile applications will be downloaded by 2023. Globally, 299.1 billion mobile applications will be downloaded by 2023. Social media, gaming and business applications

15、 will be the most popular downloads. Wi-Fi momentum Wi-Fi hotspots will grow four-fold from 2018 to 2023. Globally, there will be nearly 628 million public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2023, up from 169 million hotspots in 2018. Wi-Fi6 hotspots will grow 13-fold from 2020 to 2023 and will be 11 percent of all

16、public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2023. Security analysis The number of breaches and total records exposed per breach continue to grow. Globally, there was a 776% growth in attacks between 100 Gbps and 400 Gbps Y/Y from 2018 to 2019, and the total number of DDoS attacks will double from 7.9 million in 2018 t

17、o 15.4 million by 2023. Contents Executive summary Trends Section 1: Users/Devices andconnections Section 2: Network performance and user experience Section 3: Multi-domain architecture Appendices For more information White paper Cisco public 2020 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Re

18、gional summaries This section provides regional summaries for Internet users, devices and connections, and network performance. The Cisco Annual Internet Report covers six distinct geographic regions (in alphabetical order): Asia Pacific (APAC), Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Latin America (LATAM

19、), Middle East and Africa (MEA), North America (NA) and Western Europe (WE). Summary of regional growth rates: Asia Pacific (APAC) - By 2023, APAC will have 3.1 billion Internet users (72 percent of regional population), up from 2.1 billion (52 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, APA

20、C will have 3.1 billion mobile users (72 percent of regional population), up from 2.7 billion (65 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, APAC will have 13.5 billion networked devices/connections, up from 8.6 billion in 2018. - By 2023, APAC will have 49 percent of all networked devices

21、mobile-connected and 51 percent will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2023, APACs average fixed broadband speed will reach 157.1 Mbps, which represents 2.5-fold growth from 2018 (62.8 Mbps). - By 2023, APACs average mobile connection speed will reach 45.7 Mbps, which represents 3.2-fold growth

22、 from 2018 (14.3 Mbps). - By 2023, APACs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 116 Mbps, which represents 3.4-fold growth from 2018 (34.5 Mbps). Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - By 2023, CEE will have 388 million Internet users (78 percent of regional population), up from 323 million

23、 (65 percent of population) in 2018. - By 2023, CEE will have 404 million mobile users (81 percent of regional population), up from 394 million (79 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, CEE will have 2.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 1.2 billion in 2018. - By 2023, CEE

24、 will have 48 percent of all networked devices mobile-connected and 52 percent will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2023, CEEs average fixed broadband speed will reach 87.7 Mbps, which represents 2.5-fold growth from 2018 (35.0 Mbps). - By 2023, CEEs average mobile connection speed will reach

25、 43.0 Mbps, which represents 3.3-fold growth from 2018 (12.9 Mbps). - By 2023, CEEs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 53 Mbps, which represents 2.3-fold growth from 2018 (22.6 Mbps). Latin America (LATAM) - By 2023, LATAM will have 470 million Internet users (70 percent of regional

26、 population), up from 387 million (60 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, LATAM will have 520 million mobile users (78 percent of regional population), up from 482 million (75 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, LATAM will have 2.1 billion networked devices/connection

27、s, up from 1.4 billion in 2018. - By 2023, LATAM will have 49 percent of all networked devices mobile-connected and 51 percent will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2023, LATAMs average fixed broadband speed will reach 59.3 Mbps, which represents 3.8-fold growth from 2018 (15.7 Mbps). - By 202

28、3, LATAMs average mobile connection speed will reach 28.8 Mbps, which represents 3.6-fold growth from 2018 (8.0 Mbps). White paper Cisco public - By 2023, LATAMs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 35.0 Mbps, which represents 3.3-fold growth from 2018 (10.6 Mbps). Middle East and Afr

29、ica (MEA) - By 2023, MEA will have 611 million Internet users (35 percent of regional population), up from 381 million (24 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, MEA will have 1.0 billion mobile users (57 percent of regional population), up from 827 million (53 percent of regional popul

30、ation) in 2018. - By 2023, MEA will have 2.6 billion networked devices/connections, up from 1.7 billion in 2018. - By 2023, MEA will have 75 percent of all networked devices mobile-connected and 25 percent will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2023, MEAs average fixed broadband speed will reac

31、h 41.2 Mbps, which represents 4.2-fold growth from 2018 (9.7 Mbps). - By 2023, MEAs average mobile connection speed will reach 24.8 Mbps, which represents 3.6-fold growth from 2018 (6.9 Mbps). - By 2023, MEAs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 26 Mbps, which represents 3.7-fold grow

32、th from 2018 (7.0 Mbps). North America (NA) - By 2023, NA will have 345 million Internet users (92 percent of regional population), up from 328 million (90 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, NA will have 329 million mobile users (88 percent of regional population), up from 313 milli

33、on (86 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, NA will have 5.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 3.0 billion in 2018. - By 2023, NA will have 25 percent of all networked devices mobile-connected and 75 percent will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2023, NAs average fi

34、xed broadband speed will reach 141.8 Mbps, which represents 2.5-fold growth from 2018 (56.6 Mbps). - By 2023, NAs average mobile connection speed will reach 58.4 Mbps, which represents 2.7-fold growth from 2018 (21.6 Mbps). - By 2023, NAs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will reach 110 Mbps,

35、 which represents 2.3-fold growth from 2018 (46.9 Mbps). Western Europe (WE) - By 2023, WE will have 370 million Internet users (87 percent of regional population), up from 345 million (82 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, WE will have 365 million mobile users (85 percent of region

36、al population), up from 357 million (84 percent of regional population) in 2018. - By 2023, WE will have 4.0 billion networked devices/connections, up from 2.4 billion in 2018. - By 2023, WE will have 31% of all networked devices mobile-connected and 69% will be wired or connected over Wi-Fi. - By 2

37、023, WEs average fixed broadband speed will reach 123.0 Mbps, which represents 2.7-fold growth from 2018 (45.6 Mbps). - By 2023, WEs average mobile connection speed will reach 62.4 Mbps, which represents 2.6-fold growth from 2018 (23.6 Mbps). - By 2023, WEs average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices w

38、ill reach 97 Mbps, which represents 3.2-fold growth from 2018 (30.8 Mbps). 2020 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. White paper Cisco public Trends Section 1: Users/ Devices and connections A. Growth in Internet users Globally, the total number of Internet users is projected to grow fr

39、om 3.9 billion in 2018 to 5.3 billion by 2023 at a CAGR of 6 percent. In terms of population, this represents 51 percent of the global population in 2018 and 66 percent of global population penetration by 2023 (Figure 1). Figure 1. Global Internet user growth 6% CAGR 20182023 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 0 1

40、 2 3 4 5 6 201820192020202120222023 Billions of Internet Users 5.3 Source: Cisco Annual Internet Report, 2018-2023 While the growth in the number of Internet users is a global trend, we do see regional variations (Table 1). While the region with the highest adoption throughout the forecast period is

41、 North America (followed by Western Europe), the fastest growth is projected to occur in the Middle East and Africa (10 percent CAGR expected from 2018 to 2023). Table 1. Internet users as a percentage of regional population Region20182023 Global 51%66% Asia Pacific 52%72% Central and Eastern Europe

42、 65%78% Latin America 60%70% Middle East and Africa 24%35% North America 90%92% Western Europe82%87% Source: Cisco Annual Internet Report, 20182023 2020 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. White paper Cisco public B. Shifts in mix of devices and connections Globally, devices and connec

43、tions are growing faster (10 percent CAGR) than both the population (1.0 percent CAGR) and the Internet users (6 percent CAGR). This trend is accelerating the increase in the average number of devices and connections per household and per capita. Each year, various new devices in different form fact

44、ors with increased capabilities and intelligence are introduced and adopted in the market. A growing number of M2M applications, such as smart meters, video surveillance, healthcare monitoring, transportation, and package or asset tracking, are contributing in a major way to the growth of devices an

45、d connections. By 2023, M2M connections will be half or 50percent of the total devices and connections. M2M connections will be the fastest-growing device and connections category, growing nearly 2.4-fold during the forecast period (19 percent CAGR) to 14.7 billion connections by 2023. Smartphones w

46、ill grow the second fastest, at a 7 percent CAGR (increasing by a factor of 1.4). Connected TVs (which include flat-panel TVs, set-top boxes, digital media adapters DMAs, Blu-ray disc players, and gaming consoles) will grow next fastest (at a little less than a 6 percent CAGR), to 3.2 billion by 202

47、3. PCs will continue to decline (a 2.3 percent decline) over the forecast period. However, there will more PCs than tablets throughout the forecast period and by the end of 2023 (1.2 billion PCs vs. 840 million tablets). By 2023, the consumer share of the total devices, including both fixed and mobi

48、le devices, will be 74 percent, with business claiming the remaining 26 percent. Consumer share will grow at a slightly slower rate, at a 9.1 percent CAGR relative to the business segment, which will grow at a 12.0 percent CAGR. Figure 2. Global device and connection growth 10% CAGR 20182023 Billion

49、s of Devices * Figures (n) refer to 2018, 2023 device share 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2 20 01 18 82 20 01 19 92 20 02 20 02 20 02 21 12 20 02 22 22 20 02 23 3 Other (2.1%,3.9%) Tablets (4%,3%) PCs (7%,4%) TVs (13%,11%) Non-Smartphones (13%,5%) Smartphones (27%,23%) M2M (33%, 50%) Source: Cisco Annual Internet Report, 20182023 Globally, the average number of devices and connections per capita will grow from 2.4 in 2018 to 3.6 by 2023 (Table 2). Among the countries that will have the highest average of per capita devices and connections by 2023 are the UnitedStates (1