COVID-19：社交距離定價行為報告 - GreenStreet（英文版）（8頁）.pdf

1、P R OP E R T Y I NS I GHT S : C OV I D- 1 9 S S OC I AL L Y DI S T ANC E D P R I C I NG B E HA V I OR C E DRI K L AC HANC E DI R E C T OR OF R E I T R E S E A R C H AUT HOR : ? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ?-? ? ?-? ? ? ?-? ? ?-? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?-? ? ?-? ?-?

2、 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ?-? ? ?-? ?-? ? ?-? ?-?-? ? ? ? COVID-19s Socially Distanced Pricing Behavior15 March 20203 Exhibit 1: The Theoretical World Meets The Latest Downturn (1) Main indices comprise FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 and OMX Stockholm 30. Source: Bloomberg, Green Street Advisors WWW.GRE

3、ENSTREETADVISORS.COM 2020, Green Street Advisors, LLC - Use of this report is subject to the Terms of Use listed at the end of the report. Green Street has published extensively on the impact of changing economic conditions on property values using the more than 30 years of data collected through ou

4、r U.S. operations. The U.S. analysis serves as a great starting point for European investors. Drivers including variability of rent (or “M- RevPAF” per our favourite measure of market fundamentals), operating leverage, and lease length transcend borders and suggest GDP sensitivity should carry throu

5、gh. As in the U.S., we would expect lodging (except that net lease structures in Europe serve as a cushion), retail and office sectors to react most to changes in GDP expectations. Residential and self-storage sectors are most cushioned. This analysis was first discussed in Heard on the Beach: All E

6、yes on the Numerator, 2/25/16. Data not available for all sectors. S or GSA (UK) to the extent that this report has been disseminated in the EEA. Green Street Advisors US is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Act in respect of the financial service

7、s; and is regulated by the SEC under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. Green Street Advisors UK Ltd. is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Act in respect of the financial services; and is regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which differ f

8、rom Australian laws. Swiss recipients: the funds, the REITs, the investment companies and any collective investment schemes referred to in these reports may not have been registered with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and no Swiss representative or paying agent has been app

9、ointed in Switzerland. This report is provided in Switzerland for the use of the addressees only and may not be distributed, copied, reproduced or passed on to any third parties. Green Street reserves the right to update the disclosures and policies set out in this document at any time. We encourage

10、 a careful comparison of these disclosures and policies with those of other research providers, and welcome the opportunity to discuss them. Affiliate Disclosures: Green Street does not directly engage in investment banking, underwriting or advisory work with any of the companies in our coverage uni

11、verse. However, the following are potential conflicts regarding our affiliates that should be considered: Green Street has an advisory it is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. This report is produced solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be used as

12、the primary basis of investment decisions. Because of individual client requirements, it is not, and it should not be construed as, advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This report is not an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. For Gr

13、een Streets advisory customers, this research report is for informational purposes only and the firm is not responsible for implementation. Nor can the firm be liable for suitability obligations. GSA (US) generally prohibits research analysts from sending draft research reports to subject companies.

14、 However, it should be presumed that the analyst(s) who authored this report has(/ have) had discussions with the subject company to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication, and has(/have) had assistance from the company in conducting due diligence, including visits to company sites and meeting

15、s with company management and other representatives. At any given time, Green Street publishes roughly the same number of “BUY” recommendations that it does “SELL” recommendations. Green Streets Disclosure Information Green Streets “BUYs” have historically achieved far higher total returns than its

16、”HOLDs”, which, in turn, have outperformed its “SELLs”. The results shown above are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Hypothetical results do not represent actual trading. Actual performance will vary from the hypothetical performance shown above due to, but not limited to, (1) adviso

17、ry fees and other expenses incurred; (2) transaction costs; (3) exchange rate movements; (4) the inability to execute trades at the last published price (the hypothetical returns assume execution at the last closing price); (5) the inabil- ity to maintain an equally-weighted portfolio in size (the r

18、eturns above assume an equal weighting); and (6) market and economic factors that will almost cer- tainly cause one to invest differently than projected by the model that simulated the above returns. All returns assume reinvestment of dividends. Hypothetical and past performance does not guarantee f

19、uture results. (1) Results are for recommendations made by Green Streets European Research Team only. Since 5 July 2017, performance is calculated whenever a recom- mendation is changed using the share price at the most recent market close. Previously, performance was based on recommendations provid

20、ed in Green Streets “Real Estate Securities Monthly” (RESM) and assumed no change in recommendation between RESM publications. Results from 1 September 2009 through 4 January 2016 were independently verified by an international “Big 4” accounting firm. The accounting firm did not verify the stated r

21、esults subsequent to 4 January 2016. As of 4 January 2016, the annualised total return of Green Streets recommendations since 1 September 2009 was: Buy +19.6%, Hold +11.4%, Sell +8.5%, Universe +14.1%. (2) Beginning 5 July 2017, all companies in Green Streets European coverage universe are included

22、in the performance calculation. Previously, inclusion in the calculation of total return had been based on whether the companies were listed in the primary exhibit of Green Streets RESM. (3) From 1993 until 3 July 2017, the returns for each year cover the period following the first RESM issued in th

23、e respective year through the first RESM issued in the following year and are not based on a calendar year. Subsequent to 5 July 2017, returns are based on calendar months. (4) Green Street has only three recommendations: BUY (“B”), HOLD (“H”) and SELL (“S”). The firm does not consistently publish p

24、rice targets and therefore price targets are not included in this graph. “Buy” = Most attractively valued stocks, in which we recommend overweight position; “Hold” = Fairly valued stocks, in which we recommend market-weighting; “Sell” = Least attractively valued stocks, in which we recommend underwe

25、ight position. “Not Rated” companies are covered by the firms research department, but are not rated due to fundamental attributes related to business prospects and balance sheets that are deemed to make the securities more option-like than equity-like. Green Street Advisors (UK) Limiteds track reco

26、rd will continue to be published monthly in RESM Europe Edition. The results may not be relied upon in con- nection with any offer or sale of securities. Neither Green Street Advisors (UK) Limited, its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, employees, agents or representatives makes any i

27、mplicit or explicit representation or warranty with regard to the accuracy or completeness of this information or accepts or assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this information or any loss whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential that may arise fro

28、m or in connection with the use of this information or otherwise. Green Street will furnish upon request available investment information regarding the recommendation 26% 50% 24% 35% 30% 35% BUYHOLDSELL % of Securities Rated Recommendation Distribution (as of 3/3/2020) GSA (US)GSA (UK) Total Return

29、of Green Streets Recommendations1,2 Year3BuyHoldSellUniverse 2020 YTD-8.8%-6.9%-9.8%-8.3% 201940.8%26.1%23.5%29.0% 20181.8%-6.9%-20.9%-8.5% 201730.9%19.2%11.1%19.9% 20165.4%2.1%-2.3%1.9% 201522.8%14.4%10.5%16.1% 201435.6%28.3%24.1%29.8% 201316.3%7.6%9.4%11.2% 201239.8%29.3%17.0%29.8% 2011-7.6%-8.2%-12.7%-9.2% 201013.1%0.3%7.9%9.2% 200910.0%5.5%1.6%7.0% Cumulative Total Return 515.9%183.6%78.2%232.8% Annualized 18.9%10.4%5.7%12.1% ? ?