世界經濟論壇：2020年歐洲風能與經濟復蘇報告：風能如何將社區置于綠色復蘇的中心 （英文版）（104頁）.pdf

1、How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope windeurope.org October 2020 Wind energy and economic rec

2、overy in Europe How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery MAIN AUTHOR: Ivn Pineda CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS: Guy Brindley, WindEurope Daniel Fraile, WindEurope Viktoriya Kerelska, WindEurope Ivan Komusanac, WindEurope Mattia Cecchinato, WindEurope Marylise Schmid, WindEurope

3、 Dorina Iuga, WindEurope EDITORS: Pierre Tardieu, WindEurope Colin Walsh, WindEurope DESIGN: Lin Van de Velde, drukvorm.be Laia Mir, WindEurope MORE INFORMATION: policywindeurope.org +32 2 213 18 11 WindEurope has joined a climate-neutral printing program. It makes choices as to what it prints, and

4、how, based on environmental criteria. The CO2 emissions of the printing process are then calculated and compensated by green emission allowances purchased from a sustainable project. The socio-economic impact evaluation of wind energy on the European Union has been carried out using the SNA93 method

5、ology (System of National Accounts adopted in 1993 by the United Nations Statistical Commission) and Deloittes approaches, which evaluate the effects of the renewable energy in the economy. Deloitte has provided WindEurope solely with the services and estimations defined in the proposal signed by Wi

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17、Mackenzie is a Verisk Business 3 INSERT HERE THE NAME OF THE CHAPTER 2. Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 7 1. INTRODUCTION . 13 2. WIND ENERGY TODAY AND 2030 SCENARIOS . 15 3.

18、BOOSTING THE EU ECONOMY . 20 3.1. Jobs . 20 3.2. Contribution to EU GDP . 22 3.3. Exports . 29 4. THE INDUSTRIAL FOOTPRINT OF WIND ENERGY IN EUROPE . 33 4.1. What kind of companies comprise the supply chain of wind energy? . 34 4.2. Wind turbine manufacturers . 35 4.3. Wind turbine components: A 50b

19、n market . 38 4.4. Where are wind components manufactured? . 40 5. BENEFITS TO COMMUNITIES . 50 5.1. Taxes . 51 5.2. Community benefit funds . 56 5.3. Benefits-in-kind . 62 5.4. Initiatives for community engagement by municipalities . 64 5.5. Community ownership . 66 5.6. Just Transition . 68 6. HAP

20、PY CO-EXISTENCE . 69 6.1. Defence, military and civil aviation . 70 6.2. Nature conservation and restoration . 70 6.3. Farming . 71 6.4. Fisheries . 73 ANNEX I . 76 ANNEX II . 78 ANNEX III. 93 FIGURES 174 GW are onshore wind and 23 GW offshore wind7. This represents around 30% of the global onshore

21、wind capacity and 75% of the global offshore wind capacity8. In 2019 wind farms in the EU generated an average of 417 TWh of electricity, enough to power 15% of the EUs electricity demand. Wind power installations have grown by an average 12 GW/year over the last decade. However, this growth in Euro

22、pe has been uneven, leading to 5 countries having 67% of all installed capacity. Germany has 30% of the installed capacity followed by Spain and the UK with 13% and 11% respectively. France and Italy are 8% and 5%. Six other countries have more than 5 GW installed and five over 3 GW (Figure 2). 16Wi

23、nd energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope 9. EU-27 + UK 10. WindEurope 2020. The impact of COVID-19 in European Wind energy. Wind energy today and 2030 scenarios Off shore Onshore54.526.217.113.610.59.26.35.44.24.53.

24、72.43.93.2 7.70.00.010.40.00.20.00.00.01.71.31.80.00.0 8.6 0.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Germany Spain UK France Italy Sweden Poland Denmark Portugal Netherlands Ireland Belgium Greece Austria Others Cumulative capacity (GW) Germany, 30% Others, 4% Austria, 2% Greece, 2% Belgium, 2% Ireland, 2% Netherl

25、ands, 2% Portugal, 3% Denmark, 3% Poland, 3% Sweden, 4% Italy, 5% France, 8% Spain, 13%UK, 11% , FIGURE 2 Cumulative wind power capacity in Europe (EU 27+ UK) as of 1 July 2020 Source: WindEurope Capacity factors of all of the EUs wind farms are 26% on average, 24% onshore and 38% offshore. These nu

26、mbers include all operational wind farms at the end of 2019. Newly installed wind turbine models have larger blades and generators with relative lower power ratings, which can reach 30-35% capacity factors onshore and up to 55% offshore. In the first half of 2020, electricity demand in most European

27、 countries dropped by as much as 20% at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic (mid-March to mid-May). This combined with favourable wind conditions made electricity system operators experience shares of variable renewables that were not expected to occur until some years from now. Wind power plants prod

28、uced 241 TWh covering 17% of the electricity demand9. Throughout this time, the power system showed its resilience and reliability to deliver electricity where it was needed. COVID-19 also put significant stress on public administrations for permitting and running auctions for renewables. Many gover

29、nments adapted their plans quickly, providing certainty and flexibility to investors. And where countries have 2020 deadlines for the commissioning of previously auctioned capacity, they are extending these deadlines e.g. Austria, France, Germany, Spain, Poland, Greece and Ireland10. 17Wind energy a

30、nd economic recovery in Europe: How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope Wind energy today and 2030 scenarios In the long term, policy ambition and regulatory certainty will be crucial to setting the growth rate of the European wind energy market. Based on d

31、ifferent levels of policy ambition and effectiveness of policy implementation, this report presents two different growth paths for wind energy by 2030: one scenario in which Governments deliver their National Energy Strengthen the electricity interconnection infrastructure to allow the increased ele

32、ctrification of the economy; Initiate the decarbonisation of the harder-to-abate sectors through the scaling-up of renewable hydrogen; Support the supply chain in Europe to continue cost reductions in both onshore and offshore wind while preserving jobs. LOW SCENARIO In contrast, if Governments do n

33、ot implement the policy changes needed to deliver the NECP volumes of wind energy, Europe will have only 324 GW of wind capacity in 2030, 243 GW onshore and 81 GW offshore. Governments do not address either permitting or administrative procedures quickly enough in the first years of the 2020s. The E

34、U will almost certainly fail to meet the existing 32% renewables target by 2030. The Low Scenario would be the result of: Installing only 14 GW/year during the next decade. Governments not addressing neither permitting or administrative procedures fast enough in the first years of the 2020s. The kno

35、ck-on effects would be a continuation of auctions being either undersubscribed, delayed or cancelled. And final investment decisions (FID) and installations would be postponed or canceled due to the uncertainty of projects being realised. 18Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind energ

36、y will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope Wind energy today and 2030 scenarios Capacity (GW) Off shore Onshore Total 2381111 174243286 197324397 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010-2020H12030 Low Scenario 2030 National Energy 19Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind

37、energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope Wind energy today and 2030 scenarios TABLE 1 WindEurope 2030 scenarios per country COUNTRY 2020 H1 MW LOW SCENARIO MW NECP SCENARIO MW Austria 3,166 5,000 6,500 Belgium 4,164 7,500 8,900 Bulgaria 691 691 951 Croatia 739 1,200

38、1,364 Cyprus 158 158 198 Czechia 337 502 970 Denmark 6,224 10,871 16,603 Estonia 320 890 1,200 Finland 2,284 4,571 5,571 France 17,137 39,877 45,077 Germany 62,178 73,000 89,000 Greece 3,884 5,776 7,070 Hungary 329 300 329 Ireland 4,235 5,525 13,200 Italy 10,796 16,400 19,300 Latvia 72 72 1,100 Lith

39、uania 534 700 1,600 Luxembourg 149 200 322 Malta - - - Netherlands 5,009 17,603 20,500 Poland 6,222 18,000 22,000 Portugal 5,446 6,025 9,225 Romania 3,029 4,600 5,555 Slovakia 3 3 500 Slovenia 3 3 150 Spain 26,036 48,000 50,333 Sweden 9,374 10,900 12,200 Total EU-27 172,519 278,368 339,718 UK 24,076

40、 45,363 57,070 Total Europe 196,595 323,731 396,788 20Wind energy and economic recovery in Europe: How wind energy will put communities at the heart of the green recovery WindEurope 3. BOOSTING THE EU ECONOMY 3.1. JOBS In 2019 wind energy was responsible for 300,000 jobs in the EU. The majority of t

41、hese, 160,000, were direct jobs. Indirect jobs totalled 140,000. We estimate that of the 300,000 jobs in the EU, 75% or around 224,000 jobs are in onshore wind and 25% or around 77,000 in offshore wind. These figures represent a snapshot in time, based on company financial reports (direct jobs) and derived from job multipliers using macroeconomic data from Eurostat (indirect jobs). They provide information on how many people were employed during