預測2021：加速擺脫危機 -Forrester（英文版）（15頁）.pdf

1、Consumers compelled toward escapism CX leaders renovate, not just decorate CIOs lead the bold disruptors Workplace automation and AI are here to stay COVID-19 changes leadership and hiring practices forever CMOs reinvent themselves and their teams With more employee data comes opportunity but also l

2、egal risk Remote work drives uptick in insider threats Digital pathways bring B2B marketers closer to buyers B2B sellers deepen buyer relationships with help from AI Cloud takes center stage in pandemic recovery Edge is the new cloud Accelerating out of the crisis Faced with the pandemic, firms did

3、things that once seemed impossible sometimes overnight. Under the relentless pressure of new customer realities, the future came into focus: The value of your company depends on how customer-obsessed, resilient, creative, and adaptive you are in jumping to the next growth curve in your industry. Muc

4、h of your success will depend on how quickly and how well you harness technology to both enable your workforce in the new normal and build platforms that differentiate your firm. Indeed, technology acceleration is the common thread in our predictions for the coming year. Yes, that means investing in

5、 new technology. But with the pandemic still a reality and budgets rightfully under scrutiny for 2021, it also means taking advantage of and realizing the value of the technology that you already have and finally retiring the technical debt holding you back. 2021 will be the year that every company

6、not just the 15% of firms that were already digitally savvy doubles down on technology-fueled experiences, operations, products, and ecosystems. Read on to see what exactly 2021 has in store for business and technology leaders. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.2 Social distancing tempts another 10% to 1

7、2% of US consumers to try extended reality. Consumers compelled toward escapism 2 020 erupted into chaos and plunged consumers and businesses into crisis mode; in 2021, we will begin to see contours of the new economic, social, and cultural orders forged in the crucible of the COVID-19 pandemic. The

8、 strain of fluctuating between fear and want; fulfilling domestic and professional obligations simultaneously; contending with feelings of isolation; and navigating political and social unrest will compel consumers toward escapism. Consumers will become more willing to try out new forms of consumpti

9、on that promise a rush of comfort, control, and happiness even if the experiences are entirely simulated. Extended reality, which includes augmented, mixed, and virtual reality technologies, will enable this trend: As of Q4 2019, 36% of US consumers had trialed augmented or virtual reality. In 2021,

10、 we predict that another 10% to 12% of US consumers will experiment with the technology, expanding overall exposure to just short of half the US online adult population. Consumers will give brands permission to become more creative, entertaining, and immersive than theyve ever found palatable before

11、. CMOs will need to create consciously and sincerely; if manipulative tactics destroy trust among this emotionally vulnerable population, consumers wont give your brand a second chance. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.3 T he circumstances of 2020 brought to a head the quagmire that has been brewing for

12、 marketing leaders over the last five years: Chief marketing officers need to drive customer obsession at their firms, rather than just guiding ad buying and promotions. That means putting the customer at the center of everything you do: leadership, strategy, and operations. Reinvention of themselve

13、s, their teams, and the marketing function will be the theme for successful CMOs in 2021. We expect these CMOs to create new commercial and delivery models in order to keep their companies solvent. They will suit up with their teams to do the hard work, not just overseeing it from a distance. If the

14、y havent already, leading CMOs will integrate marketing and customer experience in the coming months. Segregating acquisition from everything that happens after a prospect completes a purchase product utilization, customer service, retention, advocacy was always a bad idea. Now, pandemic conditions

15、make this disconnect perilous. Disjointed experiences cost millions and lose customers they are the antithesis of customer obsession. Growth comes from continued use of a companys offering, so its imperative to focus on acquiring customers who will stick around for the long haul. Marketers will reem

16、phasize the value of their loyalty programs and will mature from frequency-based rewards programs to full-fledged loyalty programs. Already, media money is shifting into retention methods such as email, customer service, and the creation of products that drive growth: We predict that spend on loyalt

17、y and retention marketing will increase by 30% in 2021. CMOs reinvent themselves and their teams Spend on loyalty and retention marketing will increase by 30% as CMOs assert control over the full customer lifecycle. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.4 I n years past, we saw the most- improved companies i

18、n Forresters Customer Experience Index (CX Index) advance by playing a game of whack-a-mole as they found and fixed fundamental problems, often in their back-end systems and processes. In 2020, we saw many more companies advance and improve by playing a very different game, one thats just starting t

19、o bear fruit after years of improving core CX competencies, especially research, prioritization, and enablement. Forrester is seeing increasingly widespread adoption of CX competencies, which we predict will enable 25% of brands to achieve statistically significant advances in CX quality in 2021. Th

20、is years advancers did the work to determine what really matters to their customers, identified projects to improve important experiences, prioritized the efforts with the biggest potential upside for customers and the business, and then trained their employees (and gave them new tools) so that they

21、 could deliver the right experiences consistently. These are the kind of strategic efforts that will build on themselves and begin to change the landscape for CX within industries. Theyre strategic and self-reinforcing because they produce business results. One surprising outcome of this work is tha

22、t firms will cut CX technology spend in 2021 but will actually improve CX. As organizations evaluate tech spend, what Forrester suggested about having one voice-of-the-customer program and not many aiming for fewer cooks in the kitchen will come to fruition, leading to consolidation of CX tools and

23、technologies. This move will save organizations hundreds of thousands (or millions) of dollars but it will also help them realize the value of the technologies that remain. In 2021, well see more of these strategic efforts, especially because they will enable companies (particularly those that take

24、a holistic, systematic approach) to better deal with the forced evolution of CX caused by the pandemic. CX leaders renovate, not just decorate 25% of brands will achieve statistically significant advances in CX quality in 2021. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.5 I n 2021, 30% of firms will continue to a

25、ccelerate their spend on cloud, security and risk, networks, and mobility including struggling firms looking to leapfrog less wily competitors and gain advantage coming out of the pandemic. Leading CIOs will embrace cloud-first and platform strategies for speed and adaptiveness, eschewing stovepipes

26、 for end-to-end solutions. Interviews with leading CIOs found that they are collaborating more across organizations, objectives, and budgets, extending IT-business partnerships into enterprise- level shared accountability. They will also invest aggressively in employees, breaking down old ideals and

27、 resolving resistance within the organization. In fact, CIOs focused on employee experience (EX) will help their firms attract, develop, and retain talent that can provide competitive advantage in a critical year. They will make the needed investments to foster social collaboration, make information

28、 easier to find and use, and provide security thats less distracting. Organizations with CIOs who are slow or unable to adapt will have at least two problems on their hands: 1) massive attrition and 2) getting mired in short-term fixes, like tech modernization, simplification, and consolidation, tha

29、t achieve only digital sameness through peer-comparison strategies by the end of 2021. 30% of firms will increase spend on cloud, security and risk, networks, and mobility. CIOs lead the bold disruptors 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.6 I n 2021, at least 21% of US information workers will work primari

30、ly from home, compared with 7% in 2019. Some 47% of North American managers surveyed during the pandemic anticipate a permanently higher rate of full-time remote employees, and 53% of employees say they want to work from home more often even after the pandemic. Most companies will employ a hybrid wo

31、rk model, with fewer people in the office and more full-time remote employees. As a major portion of the workforce develops the skills and preference for effective remote work, they will come to expect a work-from- anywhere strategy from their company rather than an exception-driven remote-work poli

32、cy. Expect this to reshape talent acquisition, moving right into talent poaching, as the most desirable workers seek location- agnostic work opportunities. Expectations have been reset for HR leaders, just like they have for employees. The pandemic thrust HR into the middle of transformations that r

33、equired coordinating remote-work tech with IT, rejiggering budgets midyear with the CFO, and completely altering talent acquisition and training models. Newly emboldened, the best will use their improved connection to IT to ask for better tools for analyzing and acting on workforce data; the best of

34、 the best will seek out AI-enriched tools that will inform workforce policy and guide specific employees to better outcomes. This means more budget and more potential conflict among senior leaders. But HR will have a compelling argument: Chief among their new interests will be using these tools to b

35、oost employee wellness. This will help manage the new compliance issues associated with working remotely just wait until the occupational health and safety claims for injuries that occur while working from home pile up and build the EX environment companies need as a bridge to post-pandemic work lif

36、e. COVID-19 changes leadership and hiring practices forever Remote work will rise to 300% of pre-COVID levels. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.7 C onsumer demand, innovation, and the pandemic are changing the way we work and igniting employers desire to collect, analyze, and share employee personal dat

37、a. In fact, workforce analytics is one of the fastest- growing segments of the human capital management market; CAGR estimates of nearly 16% mean it will approach nearly $1 billion by 2023. With data comes opportunity but without the right safeguards, it becomes a trap. We predict that in 2021, regu

38、latory and legal activity regarding employee privacy will double. While European regulators are already enforcing privacy rules to protect employees personal data, countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand will soon do the same. And in the US, given the corporate practices and policies that ofte

39、n limit or deny employees a right to privacy, the battle to determine what is a reasonable expectation of workplace privacy will be fought in the courts. Expect employee privacy lawsuits to multiply in the next 12 months. Companies must take a “privacy by design” approach when handling employee pers

40、onal data. Doing this entails identifying and following all relevant requirements, including and beyond privacy; assessing specific privacy and ethical risks; and communicating transparently with employees. With more employee data comes opportunity but also legal risk Regulatory and legal activity r

41、elated to employee privacy infringements will double. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.8 2020 was not the year security and risk leaders wanted or expected. 2021 will not see things return to normal yet. This will simultaneously require chief information security officers (CISOs) and security and risk l

42、eaders to adapt while remaining resilient. In 2021, CISOs will want to monitor three major factors that will produce an uptick in insider threats: 1) the rapid push of users, including some outside of companies typical security controls, to remote work as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) employ

43、ees job insecurity; and 3) the increased ease of moving stolen company data. Combined, these will produce an increase of 8 percentage points in insider incidents, from 25% today to 33% in 2021. The overall number of insider threats will also be pushed higher as firms get better at identifying and at

44、tributing incidents to insider activity. Leading CISOs will put a greater focus on insider threat defense while emphasizing improved employee experience not treating users like machines to avoid turning employees into malicious insiders. Considerations for employees privacy, company culture, and loc

45、al standards for lawful, fair, and acceptable labor practices are key to the success of your insider threat program. Remote work drives uptick in insider threats 33% of data breaches will be caused by insider incidents, up from 25% today. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.9 U nsurprisingly, 2021 will see

46、 a changed workplace, and new technology will be needed to support it. Eighteen million US workers will work from home in the wake of the pandemic, from knowledge workers to cubicle workers. Many firms will invest in conversational artificial intelligence, machine learning, and hardware advances to

47、help smooth some of these workplace changes: Work-from-home staff will see EX automation perform tasks that were previously done in the office or that held higher labor costs, such as employee self-service, customer service support, and document extraction. We forecast that by the end of 2021, one o

48、ut of every four remote workers will be supported by new forms of automation, either directly or indirectly. Direct support will be the rarer form giving a bot to individual workers to support their daily journey. But indirect support will blossom, as robotic process automation (RPA) bots combined w

49、ith conversational intelligence and other intelligent automation will handle business tasks often invisible to the home worker. To best integrate automation and AI with a diverse, wide, and anxious workforce, enterprises should create EX working groups and embrace “human in the loop” design methods. Workplace automation and AI are here to stay 35% of companies will double down on workplace AI. 2020 Forrester Research, Inc.10 T he coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the digi