瑞信研究院 （CSRI） ：2020年全球財富報告（英文版）（57頁）.pdf

1、Research Institute Thought leadership from Credit Suisse and the worlds foremost experts October 2020 Global wealth report 2020 2 Editorial The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on regions all around the globe and affected peoples lives in countless ways. How it has impacted wealth and the dis

2、tribution of wealth is the subject of this special Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2020. Given the difficulties encountered in assembling our full dataset in these turbulent times, we have chosen to publish an interim edition of the Global Wealth Report for 2020. We will publish a full edition in

3、 the second quarter of 2021, providing further insights into the impact of the pandemic on global wealth. Whereas 2019 was a year of tremendous wealth creation total global wealth rose by USD 36.3 trillion during the year our experts estimate total household wealth dropped by USD 17.5 trillion betwe

4、en January and March. From March onward, stock markets have rebounded and house prices have soared, and the data available for Q2 2020 suggests that household wealth is roughly back to the level at the end of last year. Lower economic growth for some time and changes in corporate and consumer behavi

5、or will result not only in lost output, but also in redun- dant facilities as well as sectoral changes that may restrain household wealth accumulation for many years. Thus our authors believe that household wealth will, at best, recover slowly from the pandemic throughout 2021. Among major economies

6、, only China is projected to see material gains in wealth over the period. Without the pandemic, our experts best estimate of global wealth per adult would have risen from USD 77,309 at the start of the year to USD 78,376 at end-June. Instead, the pandemic has caused average wealth to drop to USD 76

7、,984. The most adversely affected region was Latin America, where currency devaluations reinforced reductions in gross domestic product (GDP) to result in a 12.8% decline in total wealth in US dollar terms. The pandemic eradicated the expected growth in North America and caused losses in every other

8、 region, except China and India. Among the major global economies, the United Kingdom has seen the most notable relative erosion of wealth. The worldwide impact on wealth distribution within countries has been remarkably small given the substantial pandemic-related GDP losses. Indeed, there is no fi

9、rm evidence that the pan- demic has systematically favored broad higher- wealth groups over lower-wealth groups or vice versa. Although it is too early to fully assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global wealth distribution, it is notable that the latest data indicate that overall wealth i

10、nequality has declined in at least one key country the United States. Nevertheless, we are likely to see a differential impact on low-skilled labor, women, minorities and young workers that will require the atten- tion of policymakers. Importantly, the worldwide distribution of wealth will change in

11、 response to the changing pattern of household wealth across countries and regions, with China very likely to be among the countries to benefit most. Wealth plays an essential role in household financial resilience and serves as a foundation for broader economic development, especially during times

12、of crisis. We at Credit Suisse remain committed to delivering our financial expertise and experience to all of our clients and stakeholders. I hope readers find the insights of this edition of the Global Wealth Report to be of particular relevance in present times. Urs Rohner Chairman of the Board o

13、f Directors Credit Suisse Group AG Global wealth report 20203 Cover photo: GettyImages, David Baileys 02 Editorial 05 Global wealth 2019: Before the storm 13 Household wealth in a pandemic 29 Distributional impact of COVID-19 41 Wealth of nations 42 United States Challenging times 43 China Keeping c

14、alm 44 India Working hard 45 Germany Good management 46 United Kingdom Perfect storm 47 Switzerland Still at the top 49 About the authors 50 General disclaimer / important information Authors: Professor Anthony Shorrocks Professor James Davies Dr. Rodrigo Lluberas For more information, contact: Rich

15、ard Kersley Head Global Thematic Research, Global Markets Credit Suisse International richard.kersleycredit- Nannette Hechler-Faydherbe Chief Investment Officer International Wealth Management and Global Head of Economics the bottom half of the table reports our estimates of what has happened. Disre

16、garding exchange rate changes, household Figure 7: Global wealth per adult (USD), JanuaryJune 2020 Source: Original estimates by the authors 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Dec-19JanFebMarAprMayJun Thousands Expected 2019 constant exchange rates Expected 2019 Outcome 2020 Global wealth report 202023 Source:

17、 Original estimates by the authors Total wealth Change in total wealth Wealth per adult Change in wealth per adult Change in financial assets Change in non- financial assets Change in debts JuneJan.June end-2019Jan.JuneJan.JuneJan.JuneJan.June USD bnUSD bn%USD%USD bn%USD bn%USD bn% 2019 expectation

18、Africa4,787-18-0.47,241-2-59-3211-20-4 Asia-Pacific71,5871,1901.758,2551844246211161 China82,2364,2575.574,62152,27362,774679010 Europe94,9406510.7160,824126114311410 India15,4731641.117,32801001791243 Latin America10,933-1,484-12.024,620-13-825-13-873-11-215-14 North America127,4563,4722.8457,09222

19、,962379922892 World407,4128,2342.178,37615,46523,79421,0252 2020 outcome Africa4,683-122-2.57,083-3.9-73-3.1-76-2.6-26-5.4 Asia-Pacific70,270-127-0.257,184-1.01640.4-55-0.12352.4 China81,4463,4684.473,9044.12,7407.31,5723.284410.4 Europe93,370-919-1.0158,165-1.0-683-1.4-262-0.4-26-0.2 India15,555246

20、1.617,4190.71534.31221.0303.1 Latin America10,831-1,586-12.824,390-13.4-780-12.5-978-12.7-172-11.3 North America124,026430.0444,792-0.4-731-0.78022.0280.2 World400,1801,0020.376,984-0.47900.31,1250.59131.7 Table 2: Change in household wealth by region, JanuaryJune 2020 wealth would have grown in all

21、 regions without COVID-19. However, currency depreciation would probably have led to falling total wealth (in current USD terms) in Africa and especially Latin America (as reported in Table 2). China and North America were well poised to grow at a healthy rate, but the pandemic has wiped out the pro

22、spective gain in North America, and caused losses in every other region except China and India. The worst affected region is Latin America, where wealth declined by 12.8%. However most of this is attributable to currency devaluation, which was anticipated before the COVID-19 outbreak. As regards the

23、 components of wealth, financial assets and non-financial assets have moved in the same direction as total wealth in most regions: upward for China and India, and downward for Africa, Europe and Latin America. However we believe that financial assets in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and I

24、ndia) have grown fractionally. In North America, non-financial assets have risen by the amount we expected without COVID-19. However, this has been offset by a similar decline in financial assets. Overall, financial assets and non-finan- cial assets have both grown slightly at similar rates, but non

25、-financial assets have held up better compared to the outcome expected in the absence of the pandemic. While house- hold debt has grown faster than either financial assets or non-financial assets, the rise is lower than the 2019 projection, possibly reflecting unintended saving by households especia

26、lly higher income households whose opportu- nities for shopping, entertainment and travel have been severely curtailed. At the other end of the income spectrum, those who became unemployed or suffered a decline in income are likely to have reduced their savings and/ or incurred higher debt, especial

27、ly in countries lacking government emergency income support. So the overall impact of changes in debt has an inequality bias raising savings and wealth at the upper end, while reducing savings and wealth lower down. 24 Given the damage inflicted by COVID-19 on the global economy, it seems remarkable

28、 that household wealth has emerged relatively un- scathed. It should be noted that this conclusion draws heavily on provisional household balance sheets for Q2 2020 issued by a small number of countries, in particular the United States. This provisional data may well be revised downward in future, e

29、specially with regard to the valuations of smaller businesses, many of which have suffered greatly during the pandemic. However, these revisions will not change the figures much. There are other, more important, reasons why house- hold wealth values have held up in the face of the economic turmoil f

30、ound everywhere. It seems remarkable that household wealth has emerged relatively unscathed With respect to non-financial wealth, this category of assets is dominated by dwellings and land. These tend to grow alongside GDP in the longer run, but land and house prices can be sticky in the short term.

31、 During the COVID-19 pandemic, both buyers and sellers initially withdrew from the market. As activity returns, house prices are likely to respond to mortgage credit conditions, which have eased this year. As a consequence, the impact of lower interest rates on housing demand may well offset the imp

32、act of higher unemployment and lower incomes, leading to higher land and house prices. This contrasts sharply with the experience during the 200708 financial crisis, when tightened mortgage markets sent house prices into a sharp decline. Real estate prices may also be affected in the future by the s

33、hift of some work from the office to the home, and the need to give workers more space, not only in offices but in shops, factories, public transport and elsewhere. The shift of work to the home should increase the demand for more spacious housing. And the need to reduce crowding in workplaces may t

34、end to raise the price of non-residential land generally. As regards financial assets and debts, a number of factors are at work. In the short run, valua- tions are highly sensitive to changes in equity prices. The onset of the pandemic produced a sharp decline in stock prices, reflecting the expect

35、ed reduction in economic activity and future earnings as well as heightened uncertainty. A large negative effect on market capitalization resulted everywhere. But governments and central banks have learned their lessons from the financial crisis and took swift action to limit the immediate damage, r

36、eassuring markets that the financial crisis experience would not be repeated. The drop in equity prices was largely reversed by the end of June, and this rapid rebound of the markets neutralized most of the negative impact on household wealth. It remains to be seen how durable the correction will be

37、. A slow recovery from the slump, combined with lower profits and dampened expectations, could constrain stock prices or even cause a relapse. A continuation of low interest rates will help counter such a trend. Lower interest rates have been critical in shoring up equity prices and also supporting

38、the values of bonds and real estate. Along with low interest rates, the other main reason why financial assets have rebounded is the unplanned savings caused by constraints on spending opportunities. As already noted, the impact of these extra savings is evident in the rise in liquid assets in house

39、hold wealth portfolios, and in the lower-than-expected rise in house- hold debt. In other circumstances, dissaving by households most harmed by the pandemic may well have offset the extra savings by those less affected. By and large, this has not happened because of emergency support provided by the

40、 governments of richer nations, which has limited the fall in disposable income, and, in some in- stances, even caused disposable income to rise. The third indirect reason why household wealth has been relatively immune to the conse- quences of COVID-19 is government expendi- ture undertaken to limi

41、t the economic damage. In effect, governments have transferred many trillions of US dollars to the household sector via the support programs. This has disguised the true burden of the pandemic on household wealth. But the cost has been postponed, rather than reduced or eliminated. As governments see

42、k to repair the damage to public finances, growth in household wealth is likely to be depressed for many years to come. Monthly trajectories for individual countries Monthly wealth movements are difficult to estimate for individual countries, but we have attempted to do so and display the resulting

43、patterns for six major economies in Figure 8. The graph plots wealth per adult for each country relative to the level at the start of the year. All countries show a decline in average wealth in March relative to the situation in January and February, and all bar China show a loss of wealth Global we

44、alth report 202025 by end of March. However, from March onward there are marked differences in the trajectories for individual countries. The United States experienced the greatest reduction by the end of March, but then recovered at the fastest rate. China, Germany and India also rebounded at a hea

45、lthy rate, sufficient to ensure positive growth in wealth per adult over the six-month period. In contrast, Japan recovered into positive territory in April, but then dropped back to 1% below its initial position. Average wealth in the United Kingdom also recovered briefly in April, but then returne

46、d to its March level, 6.5% below the level in January. Looking further afield, while most countries suffered adversely from the pandemic during the first half of 2020, some countries escaped the negative consequences for household wealth. Figure 9 displays the biggest winners and losers in terms of

47、wealth per adult. The impact of lower interest rates on asset values was one of the reasons why we think Hong Kong SAR (up USD 5,880), Taiwan (Chinese Taipei, up USD 8,330), the Netherlands (up USD 16,430) and Switzerland (up USD 23,430) were the main beneficiaries during the first half of 2020. In

48、contrast, average wealth declined by USD 5,0007,000 in Chile Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Singapore and Denmark. These were topped by losses in Canada (down USD 10,810) and New Zealand (down USD 12,510). Exchange-rate depreciation contributed to the drop in wealth per adult in Australia (down USD 16,820)

49、and the United Kingdom (down USD 18,340) and accounted for much of the decline of USD 32,050 in Norway. In percentage terms, our tentative estimates suggest that the Philippines, Egypt , Bangladesh and the Netherlands did relatively well, with gains above 4%, better than China (see Figure 10). Figure 8: Relative change in wealth per adult, JanuaryJune 2020 (USD, December 2019=100), selected countries Source Figures 810: Original estimates by the authors Figure 9: Change in wealth per adult (USD) in JanuaryJune 2020, biggest gains and losses