德勤：邁向2030脫碳之路——行穩致遠共建能源未來（英文版）(31頁).pdf

1、The 2030 decarbonization challenge The path to the future of energy Contents Foreword 3 Introduction 4 Chemicals 10 Oil and gas 13 Power, utilities and renewables 17 Mining and metals 21 Cross-sector solutions 23 Conclusion 24 Contacts 25 Endnotes 28 2 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path t

2、o the future of energy Foreword The global energy mix is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. There are abundant examples of both public and private organizations working hard to decarbonize the economy. As this energy transformation or “Green Deal” gains momentum, new ecosystems are forming an

3、d new technologies are emerging. These developments are helping to grow renewables, develop new energy carriers, improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions and create new markets for carbon and other by-products as part of an increasingly circular economy. At the same time many of these commonly pu

4、rsued steps to decarbonization, such as increased electrification, wide-scale use of renewable energy and intensifying energy efficiency measures pose unique challenges. Many participants in the Energy designing 100% of its products and processes using sustainability criteria including the principle

5、s of green chemistry; and reducing GHG emissions by 30% by 2030, including sourcing 60% of its electricity from renewable energy.38 The desire to refashion themselves is not limited to the worlds largest companies. For example, Occidental, an integrated energy company with oil, gas, and chemicals op

6、erations and low-carbon ventures, recently announced its bold aspiration to become completely carbon-neutral by using CCUS and by developing other economic applications for CO2.39 Navigating the future of energy Although the transition to a low-carbon economy is gaining momentum, there is still much

7、 work to be done. In a 2019, Monitor Deloitte Australia conducted a market study of 112 companies around the world, 69% of them in the Energy, Resources oil and gas; mining and metals; and power, utilities, and renewables. Each analysis examines the current state of decarbonization in the sector; di

8、stinct or outsized macro drivers; which emissions are within a companys control; and potential decarbonization pathways and practical considerations that may influence a companys decarbonization strategies and tactics. For the purposes of this paper we will use the emissions taxonomy put forth by th

9、e Greenhouse Gas Protocol: Scope 1 emissions are direct emissions from owned or controlled sources; Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the generation of purchased energy; and Scope 3 emissions are all indirect emissions (not included in Scope 2) that occur in the value chain of the report

10、ing company, including both upstream and downstream emissions.40 8 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path to the future of energy Chemicals Power, utilities and renewables Oil and gas Mining and metals 9 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path to the future of energy Chemicals Todays ch

11、emical industry is built on hydrocarbons, which are used both as a feedstock and as a source of energy. This is largely why the sector is often classified as “hard to abate”its emissions cannot easily be reduced. However, advances in decarbonizing chemical production could have a profound impact glo

12、bally. The benefits are likely to spread beyond the sector itself since chemistry provides the building blocks for many value chains. Distinct or outsized drivers In addition to the previously mentioned drivers, the sector is being pushed to decarbonize by regulatory and scientific pressures. The im

13、pacts of climate change, subtle in the past, are now apparent. Some scientists already believe that climate change will make health crises, like the current coronavirus pandemic, more frequent and severe.41 The sector is also coming under scrutiny from another angle, as the public becomes increasing

14、ly sensitive to plastic waste and the improper disposal of end products. Today, social pressure is far more powerful than regulation, since it comes from both inside and outside a company. Increasingly, shareholder value is all about brand and reputation. An irresponsible company will lose investors

15、 and customers. Meanwhile, within the organization, employees are becoming more conscious of corporate behavior vis-vis societal values. Rather than being the driving force, regulation is a manifestation of this changing consciousness. Accordingly, bans on single-use, non-biodegradable plastics are

16、mounting. The chemicals sectors approach to social responsibility is now very much in the spotlight. The scope extends beyond the more traditional forms of chemical industry emissions to carbon, drills down into by-products, and holds operators accountable for post-consumer waste. For instance, Chin

17、a, one of the worlds biggest users and makers of plastic, has unveiled a detailed plan to reduce single-use plastics across the country. The plan includes banning non-biodegradable bags in major cities by the end of 2020 and in all cities and towns by the end of 2022.42 10 The 2030 decarbonization c

18、hallenge | The path to the future of energy 11 The chemicals sector is responding to a greater or lesser degree throughout the world, with its own commitments to decarbonization as well as to recycling and resource recovery. For instance, as part of the EU Green Deal, the European chemical sector ha

19、s committed to carbon neutrality by 2050 as a part of its contribution to achieving the COP 21 climate resolve.43 Large-scale waste-to-fuels projects, often undertaken in partnership with others in the value chain, are also becoming commonplace. For instance, Dow Chemical recently partnered with Fue

20、nix Ecogy Group in The Netherlands to supply pyrolysis oil feedstock made from recycled plastic waste, while Nouryon joined Air Liquide, Port of Rotterdam and Shell to develop a waste-to- chemicals plant to produce advanced bio-methanol.44 Which emissions are under a chemical companys control? All S

21、cope 1 and Scope 2 emissions are at least theoretically controllable. Chemical companies are no strangers to carefully engineered, closed-loop systems that capture virtually every emission and by-product from the production of dangerous gases such as chlorine or phosgene. Typically the limiting fact

22、or in these instances is not technology, but cost. However, Scope 3 emissions, or those emitted by customers and third-party suppliers, pose a more perplexing technical challenge. With this in mind, some companies are pursuing a number of decarbonization pathways. These include: Improving resource a

23、nd energy efficiency to produce chemicals and materials. This is something the industry has always been good at but, might potentially be further improved by the use of digital tools, such as predictive analytics, advanced visualization, and energy management applications powered by artificial intel

24、ligence (AI). Using sustainable waste or bio-based feedstocks, such as plant or animal fats, sugar, lignin, hemi- cellulose, starch, corn or algae. These types of sustainable feedstocks naturally lend themselves to the production of bio-based chemicals, like alcohols, organic acids and polyesters. H

25、owever, their use is also limited, due to competition with food, biofuels and bioenergy applications and by physical limitations caused by soil erosion, water shortage, land use, reduced biodiversity and the usage of agrochemicals. Sustainable feedstocks tend to have low resource and logistics effic

26、iency. It takes, for instance, 2.5 tons of lignocellulose or eight tons of sugar and long transportation distances of the raw materials to produce one ton of methanol.45 Avoiding production of virgin materials, like polymers, rubbers, batteries, packaging materials, solvents, heat transfer fluids, l

27、ubricants, etc. This could be accomplished by closing material loops, whether through re-use, mechanical or chemical recycling, or alternative uses in other applications. An additional positive effect is reduced littering as single-use, non- biodegradable plastics and other virgin materials become m

28、ore valuable. If circularity is feasible across logistics, material separation, and recovery, then not producing virgin materials is often the best climate neutral solution. But circularity does not necessarily mean producing the same product for the same application again. Often it is more effectiv

29、e and efficient to make other products or use them in other applications, such as using recycled wind- turbine blades as an additive for construction materials or giving lithium-ion batteries from mobile applications a second life as stationary power sources. Despite the potential of circularity, th

30、ose materials make up only about 20% of the chemical industry and thus the impact is limited to that order of magnitude, even if almost all the materials are recirculated.46 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path to the future of energy Overall, about 40% of the chemical industrys long-term e

31、mission targets could at least theoretically be achieved by maximizing energy and resource efficiency, using sustainable bio- or waste-based feedstocks and running materials in circles to prevent them from leaking into the environment.47 What about the remaining 60% of the emissions reduction target

32、? Practical considerations Abundant and cheap renewable energy is a prerequisite to achieve the remaining 60% CO2 reduction. In order to become climate neutral, electrification of the transport system and the chemical processes is needed, with full substitution of fossil hydrocarbons by renewable en

33、ergy sources, such as solar (photovoltaic or concentrated), wind power, bioenergy, waste-to-energy, heat pumps, energy storage, hydropower (tidal or wave), geothermal, or green hydrogen. It will also require substituting climate-neutral feedstocks, beyond those sourced from waste, biomass or circula

34、rity, for fossil hydrocarbon-based feedstocks. Particularly problematic is the need for green hydrogen. It takes six to eight times as much energy to make hydrogen from water than from natural gas or oil.48 At present, if the European chemical industry ran on green hydrogen, it would require all of

35、the energy consumed in Europe today.49 Climate-neutral hydrogen is key to decarbonization because it enables the production of syngas/methanol and ammonia, and ultimately the nine key chemical building blocks (chlorine, ammonia/urea, methanol, ethylene/ propylene, benzene/toluene/xylenes) that make

36、up more than half of the chemical industrys CO2-emissions (power- to-products).50 Given the practical considerations around green hydrogen, the question becomes whether it is sensible to make plastics and chemicals while consuming so much renewable energy. Perhaps this energy should be used for othe

37、r things. One solution may be carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Another may be carbon capture and usage (CCU), whereby new technologies make it possible to use carbon as a feedstock for new products and processes. There is also the overarching issue of whether demand for many conventional plas

38、tics and chemicals will wane as the public becomes more educated about the environmental impacts of end products and more willing to accept eco- friendly substitutes. The market is starting to show that people are readily accepting more environmentally capable substitutes, even if they cost slightly

39、 more or function a little less effectively. Both start-ups and established companies around the world are gaining traction with diverse products, such as biodegradable seaweed-based packaging, plastic- free diapers that use a film made out of corn, tires made with synthetic spider webs and dandelio

40、n rubber, and toothpaste pellets that do not require a disposable tube. 12 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path to the future of energy Oil and gas Global oil and gas markets have been upended. The contraction in global demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic and excess supply from the oi

41、l price war between OPEC and other major producers have hit upstream and downstream operations hard. Cutting carbon emissions may be a priority for some companies in the short-term, but the difficult market conditions are likely to encourage those who survive the current crisis to articulate decarbo

42、nization pathways, examine different business models and demonstrate a disciplined approach to capital expenditures. Distinct or outsized drivers Like the other sectors, oil and gas companies are feeling pressure from all sides to reduce emissions. However, investor pressure has been particularly in

43、tense and direct. On March 6, 2020, UBS announced that it would no longer fund offshore drilling in the Arctic.51 Multiple United States banks, including Wells Fargo stronger typhoons in Northern Australia have repeatedly caused shutdowns because some mine sites and all LNG facilities are close to t

44、he coast. There have also been many days of extreme heat, above 40C (104F), where workers need more breaks, reducing productivity75. Fires, too, have come close to critical infrastructure, triggering shutdowns and pre-emptive power outages. In this environment, markets are beginning to scrutinize th

45、e methodologies companies use to prepare for the energy transition to ensure they are adhering to science-based targets and developing effective strategies for risk mitigation and carbon abatement. Robust, science-based analytical tools and frameworks are likely to become essential. Such tools can h

46、elp companies to identify decarbonization pathways and prioritize abatement projects by analyzing their costs and linking them directly to science-based targets. As executives figure out how to manage the decarbonization challenges within their company and sector, they should not forget that vertica

47、l integration and cross-sector consolidation may be part of the solution. This could begin with bilateral partnerships but evolve into partnerships or acquisitions throughout the value chain. For instance, a mining company could merge with a cement-maker, or an oil and gas company could acquire a ba

48、ttery manufacturer or enter into a joint venture with an EV automaker. In a world where the traditional lines between sectors are blurring, these types of non-traditional amalgamations may become routine. 23 The 2030 decarbonization challenge | The path to the future of energy Conclusion Towards the

49、 new circular economy For companies that emit and/or produce hydrocarbons, the pressure to change is building on all sides. But as the problems become more urgent, they are also becoming more feasible to solve. The emergence of a low-carbon, circular economy is now possible and many governments and regulators are starting to show their support. They now stand to gain, rather than lose, politi