2020 購物中心的未來：為生存而站 - A&M（英文版）.pdf

1、THE FUTURE OF MALLS: REINVENTION FOR SURVIVAL CONSUMER AND RETAIL GROUP 1 REIS Moodys Analytics 2 c-to-shopping-centers-reaching-pre-pandemic-levels/583955/ 3 4 Malls were once the center of the retail universe, a place to shop and gather with friends and familya true retail destination. Over the pa

2、st 20 years, malls have failed to evolve in the face of a changing retail landscape and shifting consumer preferences. Even pre-COVID, many malls were in a troubled state, with Vacancy rates reaching 9.7 percentthe highest in at least 20 years.1 Widespread store closures at mall stalwarts Victorias

3、Secret, J.Crew and Gap. Struggling anchor tenants often failing to draw traffi cJCPenney, Sears, Macys. These struggles have been intensifi ed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with malls across the U.S. completely shut down in the fi rst days of the crisis. Although malls have since reopened, foot traffi c

4、 continues to suffer declines of up to 25 percent.2 With foot traffi c down, many tenants are closing retail stores, exiting leases or, at the very least, renegotiating rents. In aggregate, 25,000 retailers will default in 2020, and 5560 percent of those are mall tenants.3 Given current conditions,

5、25 percent of malls are expected to shut down in the next fi ve years.4 Malls that wish to survive must strategically transform by providing relevant, safe community centers while embracing changing consumer trends and retail realities. The strategic transformation of malls should start with fi ve p

6、illars: digital innovation, customer-centric logistics, experiential centers, transformed business models and a diversifi ed tenant base. REINVENTION FOR SURVIVAL THE FUTURE OF MALLS: 2 1 1. Embrace Digital Innovations For years, malls have existed purely as property owners playing little to no role

7、 in technological innovation. Given the explosion of omnichannel commerce, malls can no longer stand on the sidelines if they hope to remain relevant. Digital must be at the center of the malls value proposition, both to customers and tenants: Build mall-centered online marketplaces Allow consumers

8、to shop across multiple tenants in the same mall in one digital marketplace. Implement a cross-mall digital product search capability Create a customer-focused search engine that will enable a customer to know where to fi nd a product across mall tenants. Provide multichannel customer journey analyt

9、ics Deliver customized mall-based customer journey analytics through cameras and sensors to help tenants optimize everything from product assortment to labor scheduling. Improve the digital customer experience Improve the mall-based customer experience through advancements, from parking location tec

10、hnology to voice-enabled help kiosks, to augmented reality mall mapping technology. To deliver the immersive, personalized experience that customers are looking for, malls must engage in the digital retail experience at each step of the journey. Digital innovation is essential for malls to create an

11、 immersive and personalized experience with their customers. Adeptmind offers a unique solution to digitalize the mall shopping experience combined with AI technology to simplify the customer journey, allowing them to easily search the entire malls portfolio and local inventory. With our services, w

12、e enable the malls to become “mini Amazon,” giving the shoppers a much deeper way to connect with their local mall than ever existed before. Yoav Artzi, Vice President of Product at Adeptmind 4 3 2. Become a Customer-centric eCommerce Logistical Hubs Malls have traditionally delivered a purely landl

13、ord- tenant relationship. However, declining traffi c and retail bankruptcies challenge the primary source of mall revenue: long-term leases. To compensate, malls must develop value-added services for their tenants and for their customers. Malls have clear opportunities to add value through three ne

14、w services: Build a customer-friendly BOPIS experience Build a truly differentiated experience to support integrated pickup across tenants of the mall. Bring the best of digital commerce to the pickup experience, including offering upsell and cross-sell items based on basket analytics, displaying mu

15、ltiple sizes for in-person comparison and providing fi tting room capabilities, if required. Offer an operational support for tenant eCommerce Defi ne “pickup” locations in parking lots, implement a store-to-car pickup program and staff cross-tenant pickup teams. Build a platform for retailers lacki

16、ng eCommerce capabilities. Build a ship-from-store logistical service Provide effi cient ship-from-store capabilities across all tenants at a given mall. The future of retail is an enhanced, personalized and omni- channel experience requiring an evolution of the landlord- tenant relationship. The tr

17、aditional mall-based model and landlord services are often constrained and do not provide the same flexibility and adaptability as stand-alone locations. Providing eCommerce operational support to tenants is a valuable, and necessary, consideration for mall operators. Josh Illig, Retail Director at

18、Vineyard Vines 5 THE FUTURE OF MALLS DECEMBER 2020 4 3. Build Experience Centers Malls need to shift from being transactional commerce centers into experience centers and ecosystems by once again elevating the sense of community experience. Food courts no longer cut itmalls must extend this experien

19、ce further to become a destination where consumers want to go: Limited-time pop-up stores RaaS (Retail as a Service) opens up a whole world of possibilities for malls, from renting out pop-up spaces for emerging retailers to creating a showrooming experience for DTC brands. Events and entertainment

20、space Create experiences and events extending beyond retail (e.g., American Dream Mall in New Jersey which is described as “a destination of style, entertainment, and gastronomy,” boasting a theme park, skiing, ice rinks and mini-golf).5 Social and community centers Foster social and community devel

21、opment through themed events (e.g., using the dedicated, rotating space to promote women-owned businesses, minority-owned business, etc.). 5 6 5 4. Evolve to a New Tenant Economic Model The mall-tenant economic model has been under extreme pressure since the 2008 fi nancial crisis with malls being u

22、nwilling to shift from a fi xed-rate, long-term lease model. COVID-19 has pushed the model to the brink. Malls need to face the hard reality that even as traffi c slowly returns, the current model is unsustainable. A new long-term economic model is required, and malls should consider three strategie

23、s: Hybrid fi xed-variable model Malls should consider allowing retailers to pay a smaller fl at base fee and a percentage of their revenue to the mall owner, sharing the risk between the mall owners and the retailers. Varying models by type of tenant and activity Malls would need to vary the economi

24、c model for legacy brands vs. new, emerging brands. A fl exible economic model would encourage brands to experiment with physical pop-up locations or to use malls as pickup or return centers. At-risk rent pricing Malls should consider tying rents levels to a key KPI (traffi c) and accepting more ris

25、k and more upside based on the malls performance. While malls are hesitant to engage in new business models due to their bank covenants, a systematic change will be required if malls hope to survive in the long term. 5. Diversify the Tenant Base About 90 percent of occupants in U.S. malls are tenant

26、s like movie theaters, department store chains and apparel retailersformats with a volatile performance history. It is clear that malls need to anchor around a more diverse set of consumer offerings: Grocers as an anchor tenant Less volatile, traffi c-driving retailers like grocers could provide a m

27、ost stable anchor tenant. Micro-fulfi llment centers Given that land availability for new micro-fulfi llment center development is highly constrained within urban population centers, malls central locations can provide effi cient ship-from locations. Hub for retail start-ups Malls could house digita

28、l/ retail start-ups, where they could provide real estate to the start-ups, while the malls could serve as testing grounds to pilot their products. Local players Malls should consider housing local artisan shops for consumers looking for local goods. But why stop at these? Malls can also explore non

29、traditional tenants such as parks, public spaces, medical facilities, fi tness centers and even residential complexes. While many have forecast the demise of malls for years, COVID-19 has made it a near-term reality. Malls have to rethink their roles and investments, and go to marketthe time for mal

30、ls to make dramatic, strategic change is now. 6 7 THE FUTURE OF MALLS DECEMBER 2020 6 CONTACT US DAVID RITTER MANAGING DIRECTOR SHAI KIVITY MANAGER RISHU THUKRAL SENIOR DIRECTOR PATRICIA HONG MANAGING DIRECTOR Patricia Hong and David Ritter are Managing Directors, Rishu Thukral is a Senior Director

31、and Shai Kivity is a Manager in the Consumer and Retail Group at Alvarez & Marsal. Featuring guest commentary from Yoav Artzi, Vice President of Product at Adeptmind, and Josh Illig, Retail Director at Vineyard Vines. Follow us on: 2020 Alvarez & Marsal Holdings, LLC. All rights reserved 122259 Comp

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