Nielsen：2017年第二季度消費者信心報告（15頁）.pdf

1、1Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD QUARTER 2, 2017 Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 2Copyright 2017 The Nie

2、lsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO RISE IN MANY MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD Global consumer confidence increased three points from the fourth quarter of 2016 to a score of 104. Second-quarter confidence

3、scores increased from the fourth quarter of 2016 in 41 of the 63 markets measured in the online survey. Confidence gains were seen throughout most measured markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, and Latin America. Meanwhile, confidence decreased in two of five Africa / Middle East markets and in one of tw

4、o North American markets. Consumer confidence in North America remained higher than any other region globally, with an index of 117. Confidence in Europe continued on an upward trajectory for the ninth consecutive quarter, as 22 of 33 countries posted index increases, resulting in a regional score o

5、f 85. Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly, rising three points to 114. In Latin America, confidence was stable at 85, showing a one-point increase from the fourth quarter of 2016. Africa / Middle East saw the greatest change in confidence levels, with the index rising five po

6、ints to a score of 88. 3Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 130128 121118 117115 112110 107107 103103103102102102102102101101 99 98 98 97 97 94 94 9491 8989 87 878585 84 84838282 81 81 79 79 78 78 77 7574 73 70

7、7070 7069 63 58 5857 5352 60 80 100 120 140 0 PH IN ID US VN DK CN AE TR TH DE NZ CA IE NL IL PK HK RO CZ GB SA CH CO PE AT SE MY ES AU SG MX JP SK BG BE BR EE NO PT CL AR KA TW LV ZA MO FR SI LT HR HU RU FI RS KO IT VE UA BL GR In North America, consumer confidence remained on solid footing in the

8、second quarter of 2017 with a score of 117, despite a decline of four points from the fourth quarter of 2016. In the U.S, confidence remained strong at 118, maintaining an optimistic level for more than three years (since first quarter, 2014). In Canada, consumer confidence sustained positive moment

9、um with an index of 103, an increase of five points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly, rising three points to 114. Consumer confidence scores ranged from a high of 130 in the Philippines to a low of 63 in South Korea. Confidence gains were s

10、een in nine out of 14 measured markets, with the biggest increase in South Korea (up 20 points), followed by Japan (up 13 points) and Malaysia (up 10 points). Countries that showed confidence declines include India (down seven points) and Thailand (down three points). Confidence in Europe increased

11、five points, reaching an index score of 85. While second-quarter scores varied widely in the region, from a high of 115 in Denmark to a low of 52 in Greece, confidence in the majority of markets (22 of 33) increased. Confidence held steady in Latin America with a score of 85. Scores ranged from a hi

12、gh of 97 in Peru to a low of 58 in Venezuela. No markets posted scores at or above the optimism baseline of 100. Africa / Middle East saw the greatest change, with the consumer confidence index rising five points to a score of 88. At 110, United Arab Emirates had the highest index in the region, up

13、two points from the fourth quarter of 2016. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Q2 2017 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Survey Q2 2017 -2-71-5574217 -3205222-5916 -2-34-4716-2 105-24113310 -4-1 11 -573626101-881101682020015-20 Changes Q217 vs. Q416 Global Average 104 Base : All responden

14、ts n=33992 Field Dates: May 20 - June 10, 2017 4Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SOLID, FEARS OF RECESSION RETRACTING U.S. consumer confidence remained on solid footing in the second quarter with a score of 118, d

15、espite a decline of five points from the fourth quarter of 2016. More than seven in 10 U.S. respondents (72%) said they believed their personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, an increase of two percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Immediate spending intentio

16、ns remained unchanged with more than six in 10 respondents (63%) stating it was a good time to buy the things they want and need. Sixty-five percent had confidence in the job market in the year ahead, an increase of four percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Similarly, recessionary sent

17、iment declined dramatically in the second quarter of 2017. A majority of U.S. respondents (63%) expressed belief that the country was out of recession (up 13 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016). Of the 37% who believed their country was still in recession, over one third (36%) were co

18、nfident they would be out of it in the year ahead. This optimism translated into a willingness to spend. Intentions to spend on out-of-home entertainment increased six percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016, and intentions to spend on home improvement projects rose three percentage points

19、. Intention to save increased four percentage points to 45%, and intention to pay off debts increased four percentage points to 36% in the second quarter of 2017. Only 16% of U.S. respondents said they did not have discretionary funds to spend. Fear about terrorism escalated to a new high in the sec

20、ond quarter of 2017 and has become a bigger concern than the economy. Terrorism was cited as the biggest or second-biggest concern by 30% of U.S. respondents, up three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Concerns about terrorism rose for the third consecutive quarter. Less than one-th

21、ird of U.S. respondents (28%) said the economy was their biggest or second-biggest concern, a decline of eight percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. 5Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. Other top concerns centered on political s

22、tability (17%), job security (14%), health (14%) and debt (13%), which is consistent with recent quarters. In Canada, confidence increased five points to 103, driven by robust increases in all confidence indicators. More than half of Canadian respondents (54%) were confident that job prospects would

23、 be good or excellent in the next 12 months a rise of seven percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Sentiment about personal finances (65%) and immediate-spending intentions (49%) increased four percentage points and five percentage points, respectively. The economy was the biggest or sec

24、ond-biggest concern for 23% of Canadian respondents, a seven-percentage-point decline from the fourth quarter of 2016. Canadian respondents also expressed concern about health (20% of respondents, up three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016), debt (19%, down one percentage point), inc

25、reasing utility bills (19%, unchanged) and increasing food prices (17%, up one percentage point). 73% 63% 61% PERCEPTIONS OF WHETHER NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE A GOOD TO TIME TO BUY PERCEPTIONS OF JOB PROSPECTS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS PERCEPTIONS OF PERSONAL FINANCES OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS (NORTH AMERI

26、CA - % GOOD/EXCELLENT) OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMERS Consumer Confidence Survey Q2 2017 For the trended view, please compare current quarter results with Q4, 2016 and Q2, 2016 6Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. CONFIDENCE

27、 ON THE RISE IN EUROPE Europe posted a consumer confidence increase of five points in the second quarter, reaching an index score of 85. The job outlook surged six percentage points to 37%, personal financial sentiment rose three percentage points to 45%, and immediate spending intentions increased

28、two percentage points to 36%. While second-quarter scores varied widely in the region, from a high of 115 in Denmark to a low of 52 in Greece, the majority of markets (22 of 33) increased in confidence. In three of the regions top five economies, consumer confidence increased: up two points in Germa

29、ny (103), eight points in France (75) and five points in Spain (91). Conversely, the U.K. posted a decline of three points (99). Confidence in Italy was flat from the end of 2016 (58). Two-thirds of German respondents (66%) expected favorable prospects for jobs in the coming year, up eight percentag

30、e points. Personal finance sentiment declined slightly (from 57% to 55%), while immediate spending intentions at 50% were flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. In the U.K., the outlook for jobs improved from 43% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 44% in the second quarter of 2017. Favorable per

31、ceptions about personal finances declined one percentage point to 52%, and immediate spending intentions declined six percentage points to 47%. In France, job prospect expectations rose 12 percentage points to 29%, and the state of personal finances increased three percentage points to 33%. Recessio

32、nary sentiment improved significantly, likely fuelled by the outcome of the Presidential election, with the proportion of respondents believing their countrys economy was in recession declining 10 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016 to 61%. In Eastern Europe, consumer sentiment improve

33、d in a number of markets, including Romania (101, up 16 points), Slovenia (74, up 11 points), Estonia (83, up 11 points), Bulgaria (85, up 10 points), Latvia (78, up 10 points), Hungary (70, up six points) and Ukraine (57, up five points). Consumer confidence also improved in Russia, rising seven po

34、ints from the fourth quarter of 2016 to a score of 70. All confidence indicators for the country increased, with the biggest rise recorded in spending intentions, which jumped seven percentage points to 22%. 7Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribu

35、te. While an optimism around the jobs outlook in the next 12 months was low at 22%, it was a six-percentage-point increase from the fourth quarter of 2016. Responses also showed a rise of four percentage points in favorable sentiment about personal finances (31%). Terrorism continued to be a leading

36、 concern for Europeans. Over one-quarter of European respondents (27%) said terrorism was their biggest or second-biggest concern, an increase of six percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Concerns for terrorism were highest in Turkey (43% of respondents cited it as their biggest or seco

37、nd-biggest concern), followed by Germany (42%), France (40%), the U.K. (35%), Switzerland (29%), Spain (29%), Sweden (29%), Italy (28%), Austria (27%) and Denmark (27%). Health and job security also were major concerns, cited by 19% and 18% of European respondents, respectively. Less than one in fiv

38、e European respondents (18%) expressed concern about the economy, down three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Only eight out of 34 European markets reached or exceeded the optimism benchmark score of 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016. With the exception of the U.K and Switzerland,

39、all markets maintained an optimistic level in the second quarter of 2017. These markets include Denmark (115), Germany (103), Ireland (102), Netherlands (102), Israel (102) and Czech Republic (101). In the second quarter of 2017, Romania (101) and Turkey (107) joined these countries with above-basel

40、ine consumer confidence scores. (EUROPE - % BIGGEST/SECOND BIGGEST CONCERN) 27% 19% 18% 18% 14% TERRORISM HEALTH JOB SECURITY THE ECONOMY INCREASING UTILITY BILLS TERRORISM LEADS LIST OF CONCERNS FOR EUROPEAN CONSUMERS Consumer Confidence Survey Q2 2017 For the trended view, please compare current q

41、uarter results with Q4, 2016 and Q2, 2016 8Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. ASIA-PACIFIC CONSUMERS AMONG WORLDS MOST CONFIDENT Confidence in the Asia-Pacific region strengthened modestly, rising three points to 114. Sixty-seven percent of

42、 respondents in the region said they expected their personal finances to be good or excellent in the coming year, up three percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Nearly as many (64%) expressed optimism about job prospects in the year ahead, an increase of one percentage point from the fo

43、urth quarter of 2016. More than half of regional respondents (52%) said it is a good or excellent time to buy the things they want and need, which represents no change from the fourth quarter of 2016. Consumer confidence scores ranged from a high of 130 in the Philippines to a low of 63 in South Kor

44、ea. Confidence gains were seen in nine out of 14 measured markets, with the biggest increase in South Korea (up 20 points), followed by Japan (up 13 points) and Malaysia (up 10 points). Countries that showed confidence declines include India (down seven points) and Thailand (down three points). Eigh

45、t out of 14 Asia-Pacific markets posted scores above the optimism baseline of 100 points, with Hong Kong reaching the milestone for the first time since the third quarter of 2015. In the Asia-Pacific region, concerns about the economy decreased five percentage points to 27% in the second quarter of

46、2017. The share of respondents expressing fears about job security also declined three percentage points to 20%. Concern increased around health (27%, up two percentage points), work / life balance (26%, up three percentage points), parents welfare and happiness (16%, up one percentage point), and c

47、hildrens education and welfare (13%, up one percentage point). In China, the regions economic engine and the worlds largest developing economy, consumer confidence rose four points to 112. More than six in 10 Chinese respondents (65%) said personal finances would be good or excellent in the next 12

48、months, an increase of four percentage points from fourth quarter of 2016. Respondents also expressed rising optimism toward employment opportunities; the proportion expecting favorable job prospects rose two percentage points to 64% in the second quarter of 2017. 9Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company

49、 (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.9 Forty-nine percent of Chinese respondents said its a good time to buy, down two percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016. Sixty-seven percent of respondents in China planned to save their spare cash, an increase from 60% in the fourth quarter of 2016. When it comes to Chinese consumers discretionary pur