尼爾森：2017Q4 數字報告(英文版)(36頁).pdf

1、1 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS QUARTER BY NUMBERS Q4 2017 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 2 CONTENTS WELCOME. .3 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS EUROPE WEST .4 EUROP

2、E EAST/CENTRAL .10 ASIA-PACIFIC .15 LATIN AMERICA .20 NORTH AMERICA .25 AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST .28 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 3 WELCOME Across the globe, how companies do business is changing. Consumer behaviors are evolving as demograp

3、hics shift and advances in technology are opening up new avenues for people to engage with content and brands. These new connections are unlocking opportunities for marketers to reach consumers. But knowing how and where to connect with consumers in this increasingly complex marketplace can be chall

4、enging. As multinationals seek growth across the globe and local companies look beyond their borders, they need help identifying the opportunities that are right for their business. Our Quarter by Numbers reports help our clients do just that. Covering 59 countries across five regionsand growing eve

5、ry quarterthis quarterly series provides a global snapshot of whats going on in our markets today. We produce five reports to help clients zero in on specific regions of the world. The series is available free of charge to all Nielsen clients. They are also for sale to non-clients. This lite report

6、represents an overview of the insights detailed in the five regional reports. Our five market-level reports are as follows: Asia Pacific (15 countries), North America (2), Latin America (7), Africa spending on clothes is important in Germany, Italy and Spain The Conference Board Global Consumer Conf

7、idence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. 17 18 15 16 31 28 29 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 9 FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS Q4 2017 Weighted average West Europe 8 countries WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES? Average volum

8、e growth in Q3 2017 and Q4 2017 Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth BEFRDEITNLPTESGB Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same 6 month period year ago Average volume growth of Q317 no 2016 % growth available for comparison Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last

9、 period Japan (-1.1%) Korea (+0.2%) Taiwan (+0.6%) Hongkong (-2.2%) Philippines (+0.8%) Singapore (-2.1%) Australia (+1.1%) New Zealand (+2.3%) Vietnam (+3%) Indonesia (-5%) Malaysia (+5%) India (+8.2%) Thailand (-3.1%) China (+4%) 20 LATIN AMERICA 20 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Co

10、nfidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 21 THE BIG PICTURE: LATIN AMERICA Latin Americas economy grew by 1.1% in 2017, and projections look positive for 2018. BBVA Research anticipates that GDP will grow 1.7% this year. Private consumption was the main contributing factor behind last years gr

11、owth, with Brazil performing better than expected. However, the reduction in investments and strong inflationary pressures detracted from growth. This years growth forecast is conservative due to political risks and uncertainty about what lies ahead, given the number of presidential elections that a

12、re likely in many countries this year, as they can affect regional performance. 2018 will be challenging for Latin America, as many consumers believe that they are experiencing recessionary times (73% think that their country is in an economic recession). This sentiment will continue to affect spend

13、ing behavior, as many will focus on saving and increasing their purchasing at discount stores and less-expensive retail formats. However, there are pockets of growth and opportunities for manufacturers with the right focus. Opportunities include: Emerging channels (e.g., discounters) Optimization of

14、 trade spending Capitalizing on optimal pricing strategies for different brands As consumers continue to grow more connected and barriers to e-commerce fade, brands and manufacturers will need to clearly understand the role that digital will play in consumers path to purchase. It will also be vital

15、for market players to capitalize on key consumer trends, such as health & wellness and premiumization. 22 ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND LATIN AMERICA The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects

16、, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. Consumer confidence is increasing in some markets, driven by positive perspectives about job prospects and personal finances S

17、ources: The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q4 2017 Latin Focus Economics GDP (annual % growth) Q4 2017 Inflation Q4 2017 Brazil2.42.9 Chile2.82.3 Mexico1.86.8 Colombia2.24.1 Peru2.61.4 Argentina3.726.1

18、 Costa Rica3.62.6 Consumer Confidence Index Q4 2017 Q4 2017 vs. Q3 2017 85-1 986 88-3 1001 10410 881 86-3 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 23 LATAM AT A GLANCE CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN LATIN AMERICA WHAT ARE THE TOP THREE CONCERNS IN THE NE

19、XT SIX MONTHS? Type of concern (%) ACTIONS TAKEN TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES Top 3 actions taken to save money (%) Bars reflect Q4 2017- Table shows comparison to Q3 2017 Bars reflect Q4 2017- Table shows comparison to Q3 2017 Source: The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is condu

20、cted in collaboration with Nielsen LatamBRCLMXCOPEARCR Job security1%0%-6%4%2%-2%2%4% The economy-2%1%0%-3%-5%-2%0%-3% Crime0%2%0%-3%0%0%0%2% LatamBRCLMXCOPEARCR Grocery Brands-2%-2%0%4%2%-14%0%-7% Out-of-home entertainment -2%-7%1%1%-4%-4%6%-6% New Clothes-3%-6%-1%-3%-1%-9%2%-4% 9 13 16 17 13 15 12

21、 6 13 16 11 88 22 44 11 14 40 40 52 40 35 37 47 29 54 45 35 22 42 24 37 59 46 42 45 51 26 60 39 10 20 28 20 23 32 23 22 Crime The economy Job security Out-of-home entertainment New Clothes Grocery Brands Job security remains as the top concern, while political stability is becoming more stressful am

22、ong consumers in Latin America 24 FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS Weighted average Latin America 13 countries* WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES? Average volume growth Q3 & Q4 2017 LOOKING THROUGH LATIN AMERICAS FMCG LENS Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same 6 month period y

23、ear ago Average volume growth of Q317 & Q417 vs Q316 & Q416. (*) Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Uruguay, data from Q114 until present. Excluded: Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Avg. volume growth in

24、creasing Color coding - average Q3 & Q4 2017 VS. Q3 & Q4 2016 Avg. volume growth decreasing Costa Rica (+3.5%) Peru (-3.9) Colombia (-2.4) Chile (-1.6) Mexico (+3.0) Brazil (-1.4) Argentina (+4.9) Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal growth 20162017 -1.2 8.65.5 4.3 9.1 8.5 7.0 5.6 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.8

25、 4.0 4.4 4.1 6.98.2 9.3 9.2 8.5 0.6 -0.8 0.60.10.9 -2.2-2.6-2.3 7.3 -1.2 Q1 16Q1 17Q2 16Q2 17Q3 16Q3 17Q4 16Q4 17 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 25 NORTH AMERICA 25 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and propriet

26、ary. Do not distribute. 26 THE BIG PICTURE: NORTH AMERICA With an index score of 117, North American consumer confidence took a hit, declining by two points in fourth-quarter 2017. Overall sentiment toward job prospects and personal finances drove the decline. That said, however, 61% of Americans fe

27、el positively about their job prospects over the next year, although thats down three points from second-quarter 2017. Canadians, on the other hand, appear less optimistic about their personal finances. While 59% indicate they feel good about the state of their personal finances, this is five points

28、 below rates in the previous quarter. The economy remains a top concern across both nations, but to a lesser extent than we saw in 2016. Macro factors are still important, but many of the top rising concerns for consumers are more personal in nature. Pre-occupied with the micro effects of food price

29、s, health, debt and terrorism, consumers are keeping themselves and their families top of mind. With fierce competition across FMCG, messaging should speak to individuals and consider their current sentiment and concerns. Aligning products with the ideals of family, health and safety, or promoting y

30、our stance as fair or competitively priced can remind and reassure weary consumers of your unique value proposition. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FACTORS Q4 2017 TOP CONCERNS CANADAU.S. The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboraCon with Nielsen. North AmericaCanadaU.S. Q

31、4 2016Q4 2017 Job Prospects The economy The economy Food prices TerrorismDebtHealthHealthDebtRising utilities Political stability Personal Finances Good Time To Buy 60% 69% 70% 59% 60% 49% 61% 55% 61% 30 24 16 202019 1717 1919 36 25 27 24 15 21 10 13 17 12 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LL

32、C. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 27 The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. Q4 2016 Q4 2017 TOP TWO CONCERNS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS Q4 2017 TOP AREAS FOR SPENDING SPARE MONEY CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN NORTH AMERICA The economy T

33、errorismHealthDebtIncreasing food prices Political stability WarJob security Increasing utility bills Crime Putting into savings Holidays/vacations Paying off debts/ Credit cards/loans New clothes Home improvements/ decorating 24 1919 20 556 13 17 8 25 41 35 32 32 25 45 32 28 27 23 45 48 32 37 23 23

34、 25 36 25 18 21 13 11 1212 99 7 24 Across both Canada and the U.S., consumers are preparing for the future. Compared with 2016, more North Americans are putting their spare money into savings. CANADAU.S. CAU.S. While Americans have growing concerns about terrorism, Canadians worry about rising food

35、prices. That said, both nations are most concerned about the economy this quarter. 28 AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST 28 29 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. THE BIG PICTURE: AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST 2017 ended on a mixed note for many markets in Afric

36、a and the Middle East (AME), with growth less robust than previous years due to global financial headwinds. As a result, this caused commodity-reliant markets to implement severe measures to diversify and spur growth in other areas of their economies. These tactics are starting to pay dividends, as

37、early indicators point toward an upswing in the macro economic outlook and consumer sentiment in 2018. Inflationary pressure is easing in Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, there is a lower incidence of consumers citing the economy as a top concern, and consumer confidence in six of the

38、eight AME countries is improving. In Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, however, indicators will take longer to normalize following the implementation of the value-added tax (VAT) and sugar tax. Taxation is new to consumers in these markets, and the compounded effect of both price changes wi

39、ll affect consumer spending, shopping dynamics and coping mechanisms for the next 12 to 18 months as consumers rebalance their baskets. As consumers move ahead in 2018 with a more positive mindset, this will slowly translate into retail sales turnaround. As a result, manufacturers and retailers need

40、 to be mindful of the key shopper approaches consumers are taking to manage their spending. 30 KEY TRENDS TO WATCH Overall, we see a number of key trends for manufacturers and retailers to be mindful of throughout 2018. Consumers are spending less, switching pack sized, alternating brands, searching

41、 for good promotions and shopping for value. With these in mind, strategies to entice consumer spend need to focus on: A portfolio of pack sizes to meet critical price/denomination points, ensuring larger, economical sizes offer significant value, and more popular mid-sized packs are widely accessib

42、le. Strategic quality and quantity of promotion based on brand elasticity/ responsiveness metrics to reward loyalty, minimizing subsidization and switching which erodes valuable equity. Defending premium product benefits and quality, to preserve share and brand equity. Reinforce superior advantages

43、with strong media support and unique retail activation. Continue to innovate as consumers appetite for unique and authentic products which meet their needs, is unlikely to diminish, but grow. Acknowledge consumers altered spending ability with messaging and media to match the mood. Demonstrate suppo

44、rt and innovation in meeting consumers altered circumstances. Focus on precise retail execution across top channels to optimize uninterrupted in-store availability and on-shelf visibility. 31 Copyright 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. AFRICA & MIDD

45、LE EAST AT A GLANCE ECONOMIC AND CONSUMER PULSE The The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a bas

46、eline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. CCI Q4 2017 CCI CHG VS Y/A Kenya94-15 Morocco81-5 CCI Q4 2017 CCI CHG VS Y/A Egypt8420 UAE11810 Ghana1209 Nigeria1226 Saudi Arabia995 South Africa803 GDP (annual growth) Inflation 4.4%4.5% 3.8%1.9% GDP (annual growth) Inflation 5

47、.2%21.9% 3.0%2.7% 9.3%11.8% 1.4%15.4% -0.4%0.4% 0.8%4.7% CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Source: Trading Economics: GDP and inflation, The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. GDP and Inflation are annualised, based on the

48、 latest quarter available GDP Q317, Inflation Q42017 Consumer confidence responds favourably across most of the AME markets as economic indicators improve and inflationary pressure eases. 32 34% 28% 22% 22%22%23% 39% 13% 41% 43% AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST AT A GLANCE CONSUMER SENTIMENT Top 2 concerns in the next six months WHOS SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING? After livin