經濟學人智庫（EIU）：2018民主指數報告（英文版）（68頁）.pdf

1、A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 2018: Me too? Political participation, protest and democracy The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The

2、Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an intern

3、ational (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecas

4、ts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in: Country Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets. Risk Analysis: Our risk servi

5、ces identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations. Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest

6、data and in-depth analysis of industry trends. EIU Consulting EIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers needs. We specialise in these key sectors: EIU Consumer: We help consumer-facing companies to enter new markets as well as deliver greater success

7、 in current markets. We work globally, supporting senior management with strategic initiatives, M civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Based on its scores on a range of indicators within these categories, each country is then itself classifi

8、ed as one of four types of regime: “full democracy”, “flawed democracy”, “hybrid regime” and “authoritarian regime”. A full methodology and explanations can be found in the Appendix. This is the 11th edition of the Democracy Index, which began in 2006. It records how global democracy fared in 2018.

9、The results are mixed. For the first time in three years, the global score for democracy remained stable. This result disguises some movement across regions and across categories. One country, Costa Rica, moved from a flawed democracy to a full democracy; at the other end of the spectrum, one countr

10、y, Nicaragua, moved from flawed regime to authoritarian regime. A total of 42 countries experienced a decline in their total score compared with 2017; 48 registered an increase in total score. But as a percentage of the worlds population, fewer people lived in some form of democracy (47.7%, compared

11、 with 49.3% in 2017). Very few of these (4.5%) were classified as living in a full democracy. Just over one-third of the population lived under authoritarian rule, with a large share represented by China. Political participation on the rise A particular focus of this report is political participatio

12、n, with good reason. In 2018 it was the only one of five categories in the Democracy Index to register an improvement. At a global level, political participation has in fact been improving in the index throughout the past decade. In 2018 the improvement was enough to halt the slide in the Democracy

13、Index, for the first time in three years. The growth of political participation is, moreover, a trend that is evident in almost every region of the world. Only the Middle East and North Africa registered a decline in political participation in 2018; here the Arab Spring revolt in the early 2010s has

14、 had far-reaching repercussions, with the reassertion of power by authoritarian or hybrid regimes in all but one (Tunisia) of the countries affected. Introduction Democracy Index 2018, by regime type No. of countries % of countries % of world population Full democracies2012.04.5 Flawed democracies55

15、32.943.2 Hybrid regimes3923.416.7 Authoritarian regimes5331.735.6 Note. “World” population refers to the total population of the 167 countries covered by the Index. Since this excludes only micro states, this is nearly equal to the entire estimated world population. Source: The Economist Intelligenc

16、e Unit. DEMOCRACY INDEX 2018: ME TOO? POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, PROTEST AND DEMOCRACY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20193 The results indicate that voters around the world are in fact not disengaged from democracy. They are clearly disillusioned with formal political institutions but have b

17、een spurred into action. At a global level, voter turnout and membership of political parties, for example, both bucked their trend of recent years and started to increase in 2018. Not every indicator of participation improved in 2018. At a global level, participation by minority groups, for example

18、, continued to stagnate. But in several other measures of political participation, there was evidence of improvement. Adult literacy (which is correlated with increased engagement) rose, as did the proportion of the population with an interest in following politics in the news. There was also a jump

19、 in the proportion of the population willing to engage in lawful demonstrations around the world, almost without exception. Even in the Middle East and North Africa, where the population is increasingly disillusioned with electoral politics (in the countries in the region where elections are at leas

20、t somewhat meaningful), there has been a noticeable increase over the past year in public willingness to engage in public protest, both through traditional means and, increasingly, using social media and other tools. But perhaps the most striking advance in political participation, in 2018 and in th

21、e past decade, has been in the participation of women. In fact, in the past decade, of all 60 indicators in the Democracy Index, womens political participation has improved more than any other single indicator in our model. Formal and informal barriers to womens political participation, including di

22、scriminatory laws and socioeconomic obstacles, are gradually being knocked down. In many cases, advances have required quotas; around the world, around half of countries have legislative gender quotas in place. Some of these take the form of quotas for candidates, while others take the form of reser

23、ved seats for women. Quotas themselves have provoked debate, with some criticising them as undemocratic, but they have clearly been effective in creating more inclusive legislatures, and they are being established in an increasing number of countries. Japan, for example, introduced new legislation i

24、n mid-2018 that Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Middle East in the wake of the US mid-term election in November 2018, participation of women in Congress reached an all-time high of 20.3%. This is just

25、above the top threshold in our model, which sits at just 20%, reflecting the historical reality of extremely limited female legislative representation. In time, this threshold may well be raised, but for now it is sufficient to separate the more inclusive legislatures from the more restrictive ones.

26、 Turning anger into action The improvement in political participation in our index is all the more striking for taking place amid a deterioration of trust in democracy that was evident in the worsening of most categories in the Democracy Index 2018. The global score for electoral process and plurali

27、sm remained unchanged in 2018, after a long-term decline in evidence ever since the Democracy Index began. In every other category, there were notable declines in 2018, continuing the deterioration of democracy in evidence now for several years. Disillusionment with the practice of democracy is most

28、 clear in the functioning of government category. It is the lowest-ranking category in the Democracy Index, with consistently low scores for transparency, accountability and corruption. In all of these areas, on a global scale, there was little to no progress in 2018, as in the entire history of the

29、 Democracy Index. In the worst-scoring question in the functioning of government category (and in the entire index), on confidence in political parties, the score actually continued to fall in 2018. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Civi

30、l liberties Political culture Political participation Functioning of government Electoral process and pluralism 2018201720162015201420132012201120102008 Evolution of democracy by category (Index score out of 10, 10 being best) DEMOCRACY INDEX 2018: ME TOO? POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, PROTEST AND DEMOCR

31、ACY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20195 Disillusionment with traditional political parties and their ability to address clear weaknesses in the practice of democracy has fed through more broadly into support for democratic values, into belief that democratic systems support greater economi

32、c prosperity and security, and ultimately, into confidence in democracy itself. Various global surveys that we consider in the Democracy Index, such as the World Values Survey (WVS), Eurobarometer, Latinobarometro and Afrobarometer, have demonstrated that confidence in democracy is on the wane. In f

33、act, in 2018 the score for perceptions of democracy suffered its biggest fall in the index since 2010. At the same time, civil liberties that form the bedrock of democratic values are continuing to be eroded. As the Democracy Index 2017: Free speech under attack highlighted, despite the enormous pot

34、ential for the expansion of free speech represented by the internet and social media, in practice free speech is increasingly being restricted by both state and non-state actors. In the past decade, in fact, no scores in the Democracy Index have deteriorated more than those related to freedom of exp

35、ression and the presence of free print and electronic media. These trends continued into 2018 and were compounded by a disturbing deterioration in scores related to the use of torture by the state, and to the perception that human rights are well protected. What to make of it? In a context of disill

36、usionment with democracy in practice and in principle, and of declining civil liberties, the rise in political participation is remarkable. Clear disenchantment with formal democratic institutions is not preventing the population from participating in them. Even as confidence in political parties fa

37、lls, membership of political parties and other political organisations has ticked up. The deterioration in functioning of government and in political culture is likely, in fact, to be helping drive the rise in political participation around the world. Increased voter turnout in the US mid-term elect

38、ions, for example, appears to have been driven by a deep division over the direction of government that appears to have engaged voters on both sides of the debate. In Latin America, where voters have become deeply disillusioned with politics amid widespread high-profile corruption scandals in recent

39、 years, voter turnout in a big election year was high. The increase in political participation in 2018 is responsible for a stabilisation of the Democracy Index after its recent decline. But increased political participation alone is not sufficient to reverse the “democracy recession” chronicled by

40、one of the worlds leading democracy scholars, Larry Diamond. What happens next will depend on how political participation influences governance, political culture, and civil liberties. In all these areas, there are big questions over future developments, particularly as increased engagement, voter t

41、urnout and activism have in many countries around the world been in the name of anti-establishment parties and politicians who could shake up political systems and the practice of democracy in unexpected ways. A rise of identity politics and of “strongman” leaders who have harnessed disillusionment

42、with democracy in their countries to gain power poses a strong risk that the institutions of representative democracy will be weakened further. Alternatively, a strengthening of political institutions, and a tackling of the issues of transparency, accountability and corruption, would go some way tow

43、ards improving confidence in democracy and democratic values. DEMOCRACY INDEX 2018: ME TOO? POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, PROTEST AND DEMOCRACY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20196 This is a big ask as, although voters are engaged, they are also deeply divided. One question in the Democracy Inde

44、x looks at social cohesion and asks whether there is a sufficient degree of societal consensus and cohesion to underpin a stable, functioning democracy. The score here has deteriorated for several years, suggesting a deepening of political polarisation that could complicate political effectiveness a

45、nd weaken the quality of policymaking and of institutions. In this context, it seems too soon, despite the results of the 2018 Democracy Index, to suggest that the “democracy recession” has bottomed out. In fact, the rise in engagement, combined with a continued crackdown on civil liberties, is a po

46、tentially volatile mix, and could be a recipe for instability and social unrest in 2019. DEMOCRACY INDEX 2018: ME TOO? POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, PROTEST AND DEMOCRACY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20197 Democracy stagnates For the first time in three years, the Democracy Index did not deter

47、iorate in 2018. But nor did it register any progress on a global scale. Across the globe, deep disillusionment with the functioning of government was evident, knocking confidence in political institutions, and ultimately in democracy itself. The decline in civil liberties seen in previous years also

48、 continued apace. But despite this disenchantment with democracy, at a global level, political participation, one of five key components of our broad measure of democracy, increased. Far from being apathetic or disengaged from politics, the population turned out to vote, and to protest. This evidenc

49、e of engagement prevented the Democracy Index from sliding further in 2018. Political participation rises A host of indicators The Economist Intelligence Unit looks at to assess the scale of political participation improved in 2018. On average, scores for voter turnout increased; there was also an uptick in membership of political parties and organisationseven amid signs that confidence in political parties had reached fresh lows during the yearand growing engagement with politics in the news. What happens as a result of this increased engagement will depend on how pol