聯合國：2018年貿易和發展報告（英文版（162頁）.pdf

1、TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2018 U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T POWER, PLATFORMS AND THE FREE TRADE DELUSION UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2018 POWER, PLATFORMS AND THE FREE TRADE DELUSION Repo

2、rt by the secretariat of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2018 Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures.Mentionofsuchasymbolindicatesa referencetoaUnitedNationsdocument. Thedesignationsemployed

3、andthepresentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerningthelegalstatusofanycountry, territory,cityorarea,orofitsauthorities,or concerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersor boundaries. Mat

4、erialinthispublicationmaybefreely quotedorreprinted,butacknowledgement isrequested,togetherwithareferencetothe documentnumber.Acopyofthepublication containingthequotationorreprintshould besenttotheUNCTADsecretariat; e-mail: gdsinfounctad.org. Thispublicationhasbeeneditedexternally. Note UNCTAD/TDR/2

5、018 UNITEDNATIONSPUBLICATION Sales No.E.18.II.D.7 ISBN978-92-1-112931-1 eISBN978-92-1-047322-4 ISSN0255-4607 CopyrightUnitedNations,2018 Allrightsreserved iii Foreword Theworldeconomyisagainunderstress.Theimmediatepressuresarebuildingaroundescalatingtariffsand volatilefinancialflowsbutbehindthesethr

6、eatstoglobalstabilityisawiderfailure,since2008,toaddress theinequitiesandimbalancesofourhyperglobalizedworld. Thegrowingmountainofdebt,morethanthreetimesthesizeofglobaloutput,issymbolicofthatfailure. Whilethepublicsectorinadvancedeconomieshasbeenobligedtoborrowmoresincethecrisis,itisthe rapidgrowtho

7、fprivateindebtedness,particularlyinthecorporatesector,whichneedstobemonitored closely;thishas,inthepast,beenaharbingerofcrisis. Thegrowingindebtednessobservedgloballyiscloselylinkedtorisinginequality.Thetwohavebeen connectedbythegrowingweightandinfluenceoffinancialmarkets,adefiningfeatureofhyperglob

8、alization. Banksbecomingtoobigtofailcametoepitomizetherecklessneglectofregulatorspriortothecrisis.But theabilityoffinancialinstitutionstorigmarketshassurvivedtheearlyrushofreformintheaftermathof thecrisisandeffortsareunderwaytopushbackevenonthelimitedregulationsthathavebeenputinplace. Asymmetricpowe

9、risnotuniquetofinancialmarkets;theglobaltradelandscapeisalsodominatedbybig players.Theabilityofleadfirmsinglobalproductionnetworkstocapturemoreofthevalueaddedhasled tounequaltradingrelationsevenasdevelopingcountrieshavedeepenedtheirparticipationinglobaltrade. Thedigitalworldhasbuckedthegloomierpost-

10、crisistrendandisopeningupnewgrowthopportunitiesfor developingcountries.Buttheworryingspiritofmonopolyrisksdistortingoutcomes.Gettingtogripswith thepolicyandregulatorychallengesthisposesmustbeanintegralpartofrebalancingtheglobaleconomy. Alltheseoldandnewpressuresareweighingdownonmultilateralism.Inour

11、interdependentworld,inward lookingsolutionsdonotofferawayforward;thechallengeistofindwaystomakemultilateralismworkfor allandforthehealthoftheplanet.Thereismuchtobedone. MukhisaKituyi Secretary-GeneralofUNCTAD v Foreword .iii Explanatory notes .x Abbreviations .xi OVERVIEW .IXIV Contents TRADE AND DE

12、VELOPMENT REPORT 2018: POWER, PLATFORMS AND THE FREE TRADE DELUSION Chapter I CURRENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY .1 A. Making sense of global economic trends .1 1. ThePanglossiandisconnect .1 2. Assetmarketsurges .2 3. Assetmarketsandincomeinequality .3 4. Volatilecapitalflows .5 5.

13、 Theglobalexplosionofdebt .5 B. Emerging policy challenges .7 1. Theoilpricehike .8 2. UnitedStatesprotectionismandpotentialtradewars .8 C. Global trade patterns .9 1. Signalsfromglobaltrade .9 2. Commercialservicestrade .10 3. Commoditypricetrends . 11 D. The drivers of growth .13 E. Regional growt

14、h trends .15 1. Developedcountries .15 2. Transitioneconomies .17 3. LatinAmerica .18 4. WestAsia .19 5. DevelopingAfrica .20 6. DevelopingAsia .21 7. Growthinanenvironmentofinstability .22 Notes .24 References .25 Appendix I.A: A “trade war” scenario .27 Chapter II THE SHIFTING CONTOURS OF TRADE UN

15、DER HYPERGLOBALIZATION .35 A. Introduction .35 B. Trade dynamics after the Second World War .36 1. TheriseandfalloftheGoldenAge:19501986 .36 2. Hyperglobalization:1986present .40 C. Trade-charged structural change: Diverging paths among developing regions .45 vi D. Trade and inequality under hypergl

16、obalization .50 1. GVCs,jobsoffshoring,processingtradeandincomepolarizationinmanufacturing .51 2. Concentrationinexportmarkets,intangiblebarrierstocompetitionandcorporaterents: Alookatthetop2,000TNCs .53 E. Unequalizing trade: Macroeconomic risks and development policy challenges .59 Notes .61 Refer

17、ences .64 Chapter III ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN A DIGITAL WORLD: PROSPECTS, PITFALLS AND POLICY OPTIONS .69 A. Introduction .69 B. Digital technologies in value chains: Potential opportunities for income generation and upgrading .70 1. Thedistributionofvalueaddedandupgradingintraditionalvaluechains .7

18、0 2. Digitalization:Potentialimpactsonthemanufacturingprocess .72 C. Adapting economic policies to a digital world .80 1. Facilitatingintegrationintoadigitaleconomyandensuringanequitablesharing ofitsbenefits .81 2. Tradeandinvestmentrulesinthedigitalera .90 3. SouthSouthandtriangularcooperationforad

19、igitalworld .92 D. The way forward for developing countries .94 Notes .97 References .99 Chapter IV BRIDGING GAPS OR WIDENING DIVIDES: INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION .103 A. Introduction .103 B. Infrastructure matters: Conceptual issues and historical lessons .106 1. Typeso

20、finfrastructure .107 2. Infrastructureandthevirtuouscircleofgrowth .109 3. Historicalexperiences . 112 C. Infrastructure in developing countries . 115 1. Needsandgaps . 115 2. Thefinancinggapnarrative . 118 D. A framework for considering the role of infrastructure in development .122 1. Somebasiccon

21、siderations .122 2. Theroleofplanningininfrastructuredevelopment .123 3. Experienceswithnationaldevelopmentplans:Countryevidence .125 E. Conclusion .126 Notes .127 References .128 vii List of figures 1.1G20realGDPgrowthrates,firstquarter2009firstquarter2018 .1 1.2Stockmarket,selecteddevelopedeconomi

22、es,January1990March2018 .3 1.3Stockmarket,selecteddevelopedandemergingAsianeconomies,January1990March2018 .3 1.4Changeinstockmarketindices,selectedeconomies,20092018 .3 1.5UnitedStatesresidentialpropertyprices,firstquarter2005fourthquarter2017 .4 1.6Euroarearesidentialpropertyprices,firstquarter2005

23、fourthquarter2017 .4 1.7Residentialpropertyprices,selectedEuropeaneconomies,firstquarter 2005fourthquarter2017 .4 1.8Stockmarketappreciationandnominalwagesincrease,selectedeconomies,20092015 .4 1.9Netprivatecapitalflowbyregion,firstquarter2007fourthquarter2017 .5 1.10Worldtradevolumetrends,January20

24、08April2018 .10 1.11Monthlycommoditypriceindicesbycommoditygroup,January2002May2018 .12 1.12UnitedStatesprivate-sectornominalaveragehourlyearnings,20072018 .16 1A.1Labourincomeshareandconsumptionincountriesinvolvedinthetradewar,20032023 .29 1A.2Externalincomeandtransfers,andthecurrentaccountincountriesinvolved inthetradewar,20152023 .