1、Photo by Rachael Rinchiuso Kearney,ChicagoSlow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 202420282H 2024 updateAsia and Australasia will continue to lead the world in output growth.Led by India and China,Asia and Australasia will average 3.7 percent growth over the forecast period.The Middle East and Afric

2、a is the worlds second fastest-growing region,with average output growth forecast to reach 3.2 percent,driven by strong performance from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The Americas and the Europe and Eurasia region are projected to grow at 2.1 and 1.6 percent,respectively,with the United

3、States and United Kingdom leading each region in growth.India remains the worlds fastest-growing large economy,and the United States continues to overperform growth projections.India will average 6.8 percent growth over the 20242028 forecast period,supported by robust private investment,strong agric

4、ultural production,and falling inflation.China is still the second fastest-growing economy in Asia,with average growth projected to hover around 4.1 percent through the 2028 forecast period.The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will grow at 4.1 and 3.8 percent respectively,supported by strong pr

5、ivate consumption and business investment.The United States will remain the fastest-growing G7 economy,averaging 2.2 percent growth through 2028,supported by cooling inflation,a strong labor market,robust productivity growth,and the specter of lower interest rates.The global economy appears to be st

6、abilizing,albeit at growth levels below pre-pandemic averages.Yet scenario analysis suggests that key uncertainties could profoundly change the course of the economic outlook.Summary of key conclusions Geopolitical risk and technological disruption will drive economic outcomes.While baseline global

7、economic output is projected to average 2.7 percent growth over the 20242028 forecast period,scenario analysis suggests it could be as high as 4.0 percent in an operating environment enhanced by improved geopolitical stability and AI-enabled productivity gains.Conversely,it could be as low as 1.1 pe

8、rcent should geopolitical conflict spiral,disrupting supply chains and levels of innovation.Global growth appears to be stabilizing,albeit at low growth levels,and the short-term outlook is more positive than our 1H 2024 projections.Inflation,deepening geopolitical tensions,and interest rate uncerta

9、inty are keeping growth prospects below pre-COVID levels.Nevertheless,GDP growth projections for 2024 and 2025 have improved relative to earlier this year thanks to a combination of easing monetary policy,easing energy price shocks,and rebounding labor supply.Global growth through the 2028 forecast

10、period is projected to average 2.7 percent,a slight upward revision from 2.6 percent growth highlighted in our first-half report.Inflation rates continue to fall from 2022 highs in both advanced and emerging economies as inflation rates normalize throughout the forecast period.The inflation outlook

11、is relatively steady compared to peaks in the 20222024 period.Between 2025 and 2028,advanced and emerging markets are projected to have average inflation rates of 2.0 and 4.0 percent,respectively.This trend is supported by the return to consistent growth and greater output along with the easing of t

12、he shocks that characterized peak periods.Baseline global economic output is projected to average 2.7 percent over the 2024-2028 forecast period.1Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 update In Age of Transformation,newly elected officials harness innovation and technological adva

13、nces to tackle fundamental strategic challenges.The economy stabilizes and growth rebounds significantly.In Stopgap Solutions,the rise of leaders focused on short-term fixesas opposed to systemic challengescreates a temporary reprieve from rising geopolitical risk and tech disruption.The result is a

14、 tenuous economic stabilization and below-trend output growth.In Great Fragmentation,the combination of escalated geopolitical volatility and low levels of technology disruption destabilizes the global economy,creating significant drags on growth.And in Innovation Struggle,governments compete aggres

15、sively to secure a position in next-generation technologiesstarting with AI and quantum computingfueling rapid technological innovation alongside increased geopolitical volatility.Inequality surges alongside above-trend growth,raising questions about long-term economic stability.Where is the global

16、economy heading?We anticipate global output will average only 2.7 percent growth over the 20242028 forecast period,with a significant downside risk.Our scenario analysis suggests average growth levels could be as high as 4.0 percent or as low as 1.1,underscoring the question of a steady recovery in

17、this reports title.Our latest set of scenarios consists of four alternate and contrasting visions of what might happen over the next five years.Two primary driversselected because of their high impact,high uncertainty,and independence from one anotherwere selected to underpin the development of thes

18、e scenarios(see figure 1).The first,the level of geopolitical cohesion,envisions the extent of cross-border cooperation and coordination(high cohesion)compared with the level of tension or even conflict(low cohesion).The second,technology disruption,measures the degree to which emerging technologies

19、,such as AI,quantum computing,and automation,transform the global economy,ranging from high impact to low.While the four narratives of these scenarios presented here are not predictions,they do represent a plausible range of potential futures with which strategic leaders can plan:Source:Kearney anal

20、ysisFigure 1Four economic scenarios for 20242028High technology disruptionLow technology disruptionLow geopolitical cohesionHigh geopolitical cohesionScenario 4:Innovation StruggleScenario 1:Age of TransformationScenario 3:Great FragmentationScenario 2:Stopgap Solutions2Slow and steady?Global Econom

21、ic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 update Global debt overhang.Global public debt reached a historic$97 trillion in 2023.Fifteen emerging markets are now spending more on interest payments than on education,and total debt in advanced economies alone currently exceeds a striking 250 percent of GDP.Pending g

22、overnment action to address this challenge,advanced and developing economies alike face slower growth and increased fragility in times of crisis.Each scenario reflects different trajectories for these drivers and wildcards that will shape the global economy over the next five years(see figure 2).Wit

23、h economic modeling,we have quantified the impact of each of these scenarios on global economic output.As noted above,baseline projections suggest global growth will average 2.7 percent over the five-year forecast period.Yet our analysis finds that this number could range from as low as 1.1 percent

24、to as high as 4.0 percent,depending on how effectively the world can address the aforementioned factors shaping the global economy(see figure 3 on page 4).Key indicators such as unemployment rates,exports,and private consumption could also vary dramatically(see figure 4 on page 4).In addition to the

25、 two primary drivers,geopolitical cohesion and technology disruption,we integrated three economic wildcards that will further shape the future of the global economy:The election super cycle.This year,roughly 50 percent of the worlds population will go or already has gone to the polls.This result of

26、this global election super cycle will have major implications for economic policies,shaping growth,geopolitics,and even the future of democracy itself.Environmental degradation.The effects of environmental degradation have profound global economic repercussions.For example,a recent Oxford University

27、 study found that damage to the natural environment could lead to an estimated 12 percent reduction to the United Kingdoms GDP,while climate risks in India could cost the country more than 10 percent of its national income by the end of the century.Source:Kearney analysisFigure 2Scenario overview ac

28、ross macro dimensionsScenario 1:Age of TransformationHigh geopoliticalcohesion/high techdisruptionScenario 2:Stopgap SolutionsHigh geopoliticalcohesion/low techdisruptionScenario 3:Great FragmentationLow geopoliticalcohesion/low techdisruptionScenario 4:Innovation StruggleLow geopoliticalcohesion/hi

29、gh techdisruptionDe-escalating tensionsamid geopolitical resetSignificant,AI enablesproductivity surgeGreen tech mitigatesworst effectsGovernment reformstargeting povertyand inequalityHigh growth and fiscalreforms reducing debtDiplomacy yieldingsome results,butpeace is fragileSlower innovationamid l

30、ow growth andhigh regulationLimited progress oncurbing root causesof degradationSome improvements toinstitutional governanceDebt persisting amid lowgrowth but is managedDe-escalating tensionsamid geopolitical resetLimited R&D investmentamid weak growthDegradation acceleratingamid governance failures

31、Domestic unrest followingcontested electionsDebt spiraling and fuelingeconomic volatilityTensions elevated aroundglobal tech competitionAI advances drivingincreased inequalityFocus on adaptation techover mitigation effortsHigh polarizationamid widespreaddisinformationDebt reduced in AI-enabled marke

32、ts onlyGeopoliticalvolatilityTechdisruptionEnvironmentaldegradationGlobalelectionsGlobal debtoverhang3Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateSources:Oxford Economics;Kearney analysisGlobal economic output,20182028(year-on-year percentage growth)Figure 32H 2024 scenario analys

33、isBaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat FragmentationGDP output 2024f2025f2026f2027f2028fBaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat FragmentationAverage 202420282.72.72.82.72.62.73.34.34.34.14.24.02.83.53.73.53.33.42.22.12.32.12.32.21.60.3

34、0.81.31.71.12022202520232.00.01.03.22.63.06.43.12.71.60.30.81.31.72.32.12.72.12.72.22.72.32.83.53.52.83.74.14.33.34.32.63.34.22.03.53.01.03.04.05.06.56.020182019202020212024202620282027Sources:Oxford Economics;Kearney analysisUnemployment rateLevel values(%),worldExports of goods and services%change

35、,y/y,worldPrivate consumption%change,y/y,worldFigure 4Unemployment,exports,and consumption vary across scenariosBaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat FragmentationVisionAverage20242028BaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat Fragmentatio

36、n5.24.44.85.46.0VisionAverage20242028BaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat Fragmentation3.45.22.43.21.0VisionAverage20242028BaselineAge of TransformationInnovation StruggleStopgap SolutionsGreat Fragmentation2.85.55.01.40.30.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.

37、019212325f27f10864202468101219212325f27f19212325f27f543210123456784Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 update The short-term growth prospects have shown a notable uptick,however,with 2024 output growth rising from 2.4 percent in our 1H report to 2.7 percent.Growth projections in

38、 2025 have also improved,rising to 2.7 percent compared with 2.6 percent in our earlier estimate.The World Bank cites easing monetary policy as a primary driver of this stability in advanced economies,and the International Monetary Fund points to the easing of energy price shocks,resilient growth,di

39、sinflation,and a rebound in labor supply as factors.Despite these modestly improved projections and signs of stabilization,macroeconomic challenges loom large.A rise in trade restrictions and protectionist industrial policies reflect growing economic fragmentation.And geopolitical risk is still a ma

40、jor wildcard that could worsen inflation,raise oil prices,and create supply chain-related trade disruptions.Longer range,rising debt and expenditures resulting from aging populations,climate mitigation efforts,defense needs,and debt-service costs are likely to put downward pressure on growth.Baselin

41、e analysis indicates that growth is projected to stabilize over the forecast period,remaining relatively low by historical standards,landing at 2.6 percent in 2028.Nevertheless,as the preceding scenario analysis described,profound uncertainties in the economic trajectory linger.How has the baseline

42、outlook changed?Our baseline analysis suggests the global economy will average 2.7 percent output growth from 2024 through 2028(see figure 5).While lower than the 3 percent growth projected during the five-year period pre-COVID(2015 to 2019),this represents a slight upward revision from the 2.6 perc

43、ent growth in our 1H report.This may suggest a shift toward greater economic stabilization,albeit at low growth levels,after a period of acute economic disruption during and after the global pandemic.This slower growth will disproportionately impact the developing world,with the World Bank noting th

44、at“80 percent of the worlds population will still be growing more slowly than they were in the decade prior to COVID-19.”Sources:Oxford Economics;Kearney analysis1H 2024 forecastHistoricalProjectedGlobal economic output(year-over-year percentage growth)Low but stable growth defines the economic outl

45、ook,with an average of 2.7 percent from 2024 through 2028.This represents a slight upward revision from 2.6 percent growth in our 1H report.Figure 5What is the five-year economic outlook?3.32.66.53.12.82.62.42.72.62.72.72.73.12.82.62.5201920202021202220232024202520262027202820184321012456735Slow and

46、 steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 update Nevertheless,wildcards could disrupt baseline projections.Geopolitical risk,particularly in the Middle East,could further disrupt energy markets and lead to an inflationary spike.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warns

47、that debt-service burdens could also rise.Pending government corrective action,debt and expenditure demands will only worsen amid aging populations,climate change challenges,and enhanced defense needs.When will inflation normalize?Inflation rates continue to fall from 2022 post-pandemic highs in bot

48、h advanced and emerging economies,suggesting a normalization of inflation rates through the forecast period(see figure 6).The outlook for 20252028 is relatively stable compared to peaks in the 20222024 period,with advanced and emerging markets projected to have average inflation of 2.0 and 4.0 perce

49、nt,respectively.Compared with our 1H 2024 report,expected inflation will drop more quickly in the short term than in emerging markets but be slightly higher in advanced economies.In our first-half report,inflation in 2024 was projected to be 2.2 percent in advanced economies and 9.4 percent in emerg

50、ing markets.New data shows 2024 inflation rates of 2.6 percent and 8.3 percent,respectively.Sources:Oxford Economics;Kearney analysisAdvanced economies(1H forecasts)Advanced economies(2H forecasts)Emerging markets(1H forecasts)Emerging markets(2H forecasts)Consumer Price Index(year-over-year percent

51、age growth)Figure 6Consumer Price Index projections suggest that inflation will continue to fall over the next 12 months before stabilizing 012345678910201920202021202220232024f2025f2026f2027f2028f6Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateThe Middle East and Africa is the secon

52、d fastest-growing region in the world,with output growth averaging 3.2 percent over the forecast periodup 0.1 percent from our 1H report.The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are projected to lead the region over the forecast period with 4.1 percent and 3.8 percent average GDP growth,respectivel

53、y.Robust private consumption and business investment continue to propel both countries,though anticipated declines in oil production are creating headwinds.Elsewhere in the region,decreased commercial activity in the Suez Canal and the conflict in Gaza continue to threaten regional stability and lon

54、ger-term growth prospects.Which region will contribute the most to global economic output through 2028?Asia and Australasia will continue to lead the world in output growth,rising to 3.7 percent,up marginally from our 1H forecast of 3.6 percent(see figure 7).India is still the fastest-growing countr

55、y in the region,with anticipated average growth of 6.8 percent.Robust private investment on the back of strong agricultural production and declining inflation are creating tailwinds for Indias economy.China is the regions second fastest-growing economy,with average growth projected to hover around 4

56、.0 percent through the 2028 forecast period.This represents a trend decline from pre-pandemic growth of 6.7 percent between 2015 and 2019.Falling exports and investment,continued real estate pressures,shrinking working-age population,and the limitation of demand-side policy to boost the non-tech eco

57、nomy are the key drivers of this slowdown.1 Note:(%)=1H forecastSources:Oxford Economics;Kearney analysisRegions driving economic output(average annual GDP growth of largest regional economies;countries ranked in order of fastest average growth,20242028)Figure 7Asia and Australasia remains the world

58、s fastest growing regionEurope and Eurasia1.United Kingdom 1.6%(1.4%)2.France 1.4%(1.6%)3.Germany 1.2%(1.3%)4.Russia 1.1%(1.1%)5.Italy 0.8%(0.6%)Asia and Australasia1.India 6.8%(6.5%)2.China 4.1%(4.0%)3.Australia 2.5%(2.8%)4.South Korea 2.2%(2.0%)5.Japan 0.5%(0.5%)Middle East and Africa1.United Arab

59、 Emirates 4.1%(3.8%)2.Saudi Arabia 3.8%(3.9%)3.Egypt 3.2%(2.8%)4.Nigeria(2.8%(2.8%)5.Iran 2.5%(2.0%)Americas1.United States 2.2%(1.8%)2.Argentina 2.0%(1.9%)3.Mexico 1.9%(2.1%)4.Canada 1.9%(2.1%)5.Brazil 1.8%(1.8%)Forecasted averageannual growth20242028(%)Americas2.2 (1.9)1.9 (1.6)2.2(2.1)2.2(2.0)2.1

60、(1.8)2.1(1.9)Asia and Australasia3.9(3.6)3.8(3.7)3.7(3.7)3.6(3.6)3.5(3.5)3.7(3.6)Europe and Eurasia1.3(0.9)1.6(1.8)1.7(2.0)1.6(1.7)1.6(1.4)1.6(1.6)Middle East and Africa2.4(2.9)3.7(3.5)3.7(3.1)3.2(3.0)2.9(2.8)3.2(3.1)Region2024f2025f2026f2027f2028f1 China Country Economic Forecast,30 May 2024,Oxford

61、 Economics7Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateThe Americas is characterized by modest but improving and stable growth rates throughout the forecast period.The region is projected to have output growth of 2.1 percent over 20242028,an uptick of 0.2 percent compared with our

62、 1H outlook.The forecast for the United States continues to surpass expectations,improving from an average of 1.8 percent in our 1H report release to 2.2 percent.The United States is still the fastest-growing economy in the G7,as a result of the cooling of inflation,a strong labor market,robust prod

63、uctivity growth,and the specter of lower interest rates.2 Argentina also saw an upward revision in growth forecasts from 1.9 to 2.0 percent,largely attributed to lower-than-expected inflation leading to a rebound in real salaries and strong exports.Yet South America faces a range of downside riskssp

64、ecifically,increasing extreme weather events and the possibility that a further slowdown in the Chinese economy could dampen the regions exports.Mexico is expected to see a 20242028 growth rate average of 1.9 percentdown from the 2.1 percent anticipated in our 1H reportdue at least in part to reduce

65、d remittances from abroad.Europe and Eurasia remains the slowest-growing region with anticipated average growth of 1.6 percent over the forecast period,seeing no change since our 1H report.Geopolitical turbulence in the East continues to weigh on the forecast,along with restrictive fiscal policy.How

66、ever,rebounding consumer spending and monetary loosening may reflect improving tailwinds.3 The United Kingdom is projected to grow at 1.6 percent,up 0.2 percent from our 1H forecast,owing in part to higher real household incomes as inflation falls closer to the Central Banks 2 percent target.4 Franc

67、e is expected to see average growth of 1.4 percent over the forecast period,down from 1.6 percent in our 1H report.This downward revision is due in part to the current geopolitical climate as well as shaken market confidence following the European Commissions steps to put France into an excessive-de

68、ficit procedure.And growth in Germany is now expected to average 1.2 percent over the forecast period,down marginally from 1.3 percent in our 1H report,likely as a result of cooling exports and uncertainty surrounding future energy prices.2 United States Country Economic Forecast,12 June 2024,Oxford

69、 Economics3 Eurozone:ECB cut rates amid supportive economic growth,12 June 2024,Oxford Economics4 UK Country Economic Forecast,18 June 2024,Oxford EconomicsThe United States remains the fastest-growing G7 economy,supported by cooling inflation,a strong labor market,and increased productivity growth.

70、8Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateBusinesses can prepare for these looming risks with the following actions:Monitor elections and be prepared to adjust strategic planning.Following the global election super cycle,businesses will need to contend with incoming administrat

71、ions and new directions in policy and regulations.Strategic businesses will monitor shifts,anticipate new policy directions,and conduct continuing risk assessments to determine how these changes affect operations.In the event of post-election backlashes,businesses may need to develop a strategy for

72、how and when to respond to social issues that are relevant to their operations.Conduct climate risk management studies.As climate crises continue to mount,global GDP will suffer,and business risk will rise.In the context of stabilizing inflation and steadying growth,now is the time to prepare.Compan

73、ies that conduct longer-range environmental risk studies,build internal mechanisms to respond to changing climate regulation,and adapt their business models to take advantage of climate-related opportunities will be at a strategic advantage.Exercise caution expanding operations in countries at risk

74、of defaulting on fiscal debts.High fiscal debt may result in reduced public and private investment,including investments in the R&D needed for innovation.Rising federal debt requires more spending on interest at the cost of public investments,which could include critical infrastructure essential for

75、 business.Furthermore,more national borrowing can compete with capital market funding,crowding out new investments for business purposes and raising interest rates.Strategic businesses will incorporate fiscal debt monitoring into their broader market risk management practices and consider fiscal deb

76、t when deciding where to expand operations.Conclusion and implications for businessThe baseline outlook suggests that the global macroeconomic environment is stabilizing.The short-term growth outlook is slightly more optimistic than it was in our 1H report,inflation continues to fall,and interest ra

77、tes show signs of leveling off.Nevertheless,key wildcards remain,namely continued geopolitical volatility,tech disruption,global election outcomes,environmental degradation,and the global debt overhang.How each of these factors unfolds over the next five years will either enhanceor threatenthe econo

78、mic outlook.The macroeconomic outlook appears to be stabilizing,but key wildcards remain.9Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateErik PetersonPartner and managing director of the Global Business Policy Council,Washington,D.CTerry TolandPrincipal,Global Business Policy Council

79、,Washington,D.CAuthorsThe authors would like to thank Gabriella Huddart and Kathleen Harrington for their valuable contributions to this report.10Slow and steady?Global Economic Outlook 20242028 2H 2024 updateFor more information,permission to reprint or translate this work,and all other corresponde

80、nce,please email .A.T.Kearney Korea LLC is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the Kearney name in Korea.A.T.Kearney operates in India as A.T.Kearney Limited(Branch Office),a branch office of A.T.Kearney Limited,a company organized under the laws of England and Wales.2024,A.T.Kea

81、rney,Inc.All rights reserved.Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm.For nearly 100 years,we have been a trusted advisor to C-suites,government bodies,and nonprofit organizations.Our people make us who we are.Driven to be the difference between a big idea and making it happen,we work alongside our clients to regenerate their businesses to create a future that works for