1、OUR TOP 10 THEMES FOR THE YEAR AHEAD Outlook2025Welcome to EFGs Outlook 2025 where we outline our top ten themes for the year ahead and review how well our predictions for 2024 did.It is useful to first begin with a view on the global economy,as that sets the scene for the rest of our thoughts for t

2、he year ahead.Last year our base case was for a soft landing.This did,indeed,occur and we expect economic growth to remain resilient again in 2025.There may still be a number of headwinds which could challenge growth in the first half of the year but these should ease into the second half.Part of th

3、e growth will be driven by the BRICS group as they increase in size and importance.With inflation close to pre-pandemic levels and back within central bank targets,we see a greater focus on the labour market and measures to promote employment.Government budget deficits will remain a challenge around

4、 the world and we will be paying close attention to the US Department of Government Efficiency(DOGE)and whether it will deliver the promised“radical transparency”.The deficit is particularly large in France and there is no sign of stabilisation.French government bond yield spreads have widened over

5、Germany,yet the differential is even higher for Italy.Therefore,we see some areas of opportunity in government bond yield spreads.Elsewhere in fixed income,we believe that yield curves will steepen.Last year we highlighted the potential productivity gains from the advances in artificial intelligence

6、(AI).The adoption of generative AI has been fast,and we think 2025 will be a year in which it becomes mainstream.Increased AI usage,the associated greater use of data centres and ongoing electrification of the consumer,industrial and transport sectors,will push up electricity demand.To meet this nee

7、d,while controversial,we see that nuclear power could fill the energy gap.Corporate earnings growth is expected to be above 10%in 2025,with earnings growth supported by the resilience of the global economy.Some sectors will fare better than others,with those that struggled in 2024 anticipated to reb

8、ound in 2025.In the US,concentration of markets is a relative risk to be aware of.Finally,looking at equity sectors,consumer discretionary is our contrarian pick for the year.Moz Afzal,Chief Investment OfficerOUR TOP 10 THEMES FOR THE YEAR AHEAD Outlook20251 Intergovernmental organisation comprising

9、 nine countriesEFG|Outlook 20252Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications1 The global economy remains resilient despite headwinds2 BRICS grow in importance3 Focus of policy shifts from inflation to employment4 Government deficits remain a problem5 AI goes mainstream6 Nuclear power renaissance7 Corpo

10、rate earnings still supported 8 Market concentration:a relative danger9 Consumer discretionary is our favoured sector10 Yield curve steepeningContentsOUR TOP 10 THEMES FOR THE YEAR AHEADInnovation and change p.1621Global economic and policy trends p.415Equity and bond market opportunities p.2230How

11、we did in 2024 p.3132Publications p.33EFG|Outlook 20253Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsGlobal eco nomic and policy trendsWe see the global economy remaining resilient in 2025,despite the potential for heightened trade friction,the ongoing problems in China and the difficult fiscal position.

12、In the advanced economies,the focus of policy will shift away from inflation control to job creation.In the emerging economies,we see the BRICS growing in importance.1 The global economy remains resilient despite headwinds2 BRICS grow in importance3 Focus of policy shifts from inflation to employmen

13、t4 Government deficits remain a problemEFG|Outlook 20254Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTheme Key statementsHeadwindsThree headwinds to the global economy in 2025:trade disruption;continued problems in China;and high government debt and deficits.Policy changeLook for measures to improve gov

14、ernment efficiency in the US;and less restrictive fiscal policies in Germany.Improving as the year progressesUncertainties are greatest in the first part of the year but should ease in the second half and into 2026.The global economy remains resilient despite headwinds 1 EFG|Outlook 20255Themes 2025

15、How we did in 2024Publications5We anticipate three significant challenges to global economic growth in 2025.1.First,president-elect Trumps planned tariffs on US imported goods.The possible imposition of 60%tariffs on US imports from China and 10%-20%on imports from the rest of the world,coupled with

16、 likely retaliation,would be a clear threat to world growth.One estimate puts the hit at around 0.3%in 2025.Notably,the impact on US growth could be similar to that on China(a 0.6%reduction),as higher import costs depress US real incomes.Europe,particularly Germany,could be badly affected because of

17、 its auto exports to the US.Generally,uncertainty about trade relationships could have broad and long-lasting implications.However,world gross domestic product(GDP)growth is no longer as dependent on trade growth as in the past(see Figure 1):domestic demand has become more important in driving growt

18、h for many economies.Further-more,it could be that such tariffs are not fully imposed or are circumvented.Exports to the US could be voluntarily restricted by the exporter or limited by quota,for example.Exchange rate movements can offset the tariff impact and most currencies have already weakened a

19、gainst the US dollar since Trumps election.Exports can also be redirected via connector countries with lower tariffs(see Figure 2).These factors may mean that exports to the US are less affected than initially thought but they will all have detrimental consequences for the exporting countries.For ex

20、ample,a depreciation of the renminbi may raise inflation in China;and countries with large manufacturing sectors,such as Germany,would see their growth prospects hit.The global economy remains resilient despite headwinds1Source:IMF World Economic Outlook,October 2024.The US can function better than

21、other economies from a more restricted trade environment,for several key reasons.Figure 1 GDP growth now runs ahead of trade growth0%1%2%3%4%5%6%20002019(ex 2008-09)Trade volume growthWorld GDP growth20222024EFG|Outlook 20256Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications Certainly,the US can function bet

22、ter than other economies from a more restricted trade environment,for several key reasons.First,it is largely energy independent;it was much less affected by the energy price shock after Russias invasion of Ukraine than other advanced economies,for example.Second,it is a highly innovative economy an

23、d has an exceptional ability to turn this into business opportunities.High spending on Research and Development(R&D)has been a key strength of US companies(see Figure 3).Third,the US has access to plenty of labour from abroad,even though restrictions on that may well be imposed.Fourth,the US is a re

24、latively closed economy for which trade represents a much smaller share of GDP than in Europe and Asia.For these reasons,it seems likely that the US will continue to lead advanced economies growth in 2025.2.The second headwind reflects ongoing problems in the Chinese economy.Structural weaknesses in

25、 the property market,high local government debt and poor consumer confidence cannot be quickly resolved.Policy easing can help,but the magnitude may be insufficient to produce a meaningful reinvigoration.3.Indeed,around the world,the degree of policy easing may prove disappointing in 2025.The scope

26、for further policy interest cuts is seen as relatively limited less than one percentage point in the US and Switzerland and slightly more than that in the UK and the eurozone.Certainly,tight monetary policy has proved successful in returning inflation to target and the lagged effects of lower intere

27、st rates in boosting growth should become evident later in 2025.However,as attention turns to fiscal policy,the concern is that it is constrained in many economies by high deficits and debt levels.Source:Bloomberg Economics.14 November 2024.EFG|Outlook 20257Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsC

28、onnector countriesPolandMoroccoIndonesiaVietnamMexicoFigure 2 Connector countries re-drawing fragmented trade routesThe scope for fiscal easing is not great.But that,in itself,is behind the need for government reform.In the US,the new Department of Government Efficiency(DOGE),led by Elon Musk and Vi

29、vek Ramaswamy aims to cut USD2 trillion from government spending over ten years,an amount equal to the governments annual discretionary spending.Such reforms have echoes of the rolling back of the states role,seen in the 1980s.At the other extreme,a new German government may well ease the restrictio

30、ns on government borrowing.There,and indeed across Europe,are pressures for much higher spending on decarbonisation,digitalisation and defence,as identified in the Draghi Report.After what may well be an uncertain period for the global economy in the first half of 2025,we see a better second half of

31、 the year and further improvement into 2026.1 Source:Aurlien Saussay,“The economic impacts of Trumps tariff proposals.”LSE Grantham Institute Policy Insight October 2024Source:European Commission;OECD and national sources.Data for R&D relate to 2022;data for GDP per head are forecasts at PPP rates f

32、or 2025.Data as at 20 November 2024.Figure 3 Higher R&D spending correlates to economic strength0012345620406080100ItalySwitzerlandUSKoreaGermanyIndiaSpainRussiaFranceUKChinaJapanR&D spending as a share of GDPGDP per capita,USD 000sEFG|Outlook 20258Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTHEME BRIC

33、S grow in importance2BRICS group is getting biggerThe BRICS group is getting bigger,now including nine economies,accounting for 45%of the world population.Making a larger contribution to world growthHalf of the worlds growth in 2025 will be generated by the BRICS.More co-operation within the groupWe

34、 see more co-operation within the BRICS group on trade and finance as they become less dependent on western economies.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 20259Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications9The BRICS group will gain increased global significance in 2025 for three main reasons.1.The group is getting

35、 bigger.Initially comprising four economies Brazil,Russia,India and China they were joined by South Africa in 2010 and Iran,the United Arab Emirates,Ethiopia and Egypt at the start of 2024.Together these nine economies have a population of 3.6 billion people,45%of the world total(see Figure 4).For m

36、ost of the time BRICS has existed,China has been the largest economy in the group.But India is catching up,helped by the fact that its population now exceeds Chinas.At Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates,the combined GDP of the BRICS is USD73 trillion,more than a third of the world total.The grou

37、p is likely to expand further with Malaysia,Thailand and Turkey all seeking membership and Saudi Arabia considering its invitation to join.2.The BRICS grouping is now making a large contribution to global economic growth.The world economy is forecast to grow by 3.2%in 2025,according to the IMF.Half

38、of this growth will be generated by the BRICS.The G7 major advanced economies will contribute to just 15%of the growth,with the bulk of that coming from the US(see Figure 5).In a world in which trade patterns risk becoming more fragmented,trade between the BRICS can be expected to become even more i

39、mportant.Indeed,the pressures of global trade fragmentation provide an incentive for the BRICS to co-operate to a greater extent.The natural resources of Brazil,Russia and Iran have always made those economies attractive partners for China.But as world trade looks set to become increasingly dominate

40、d by technology and services,it remains to be seen how well the BRICS members can help each other.India and China seem to be competitors rather than enthusiastic collaborators.3.The BRICS have agreed to pool USD100 billion of foreign-currency reserves and have formed the New Development Bank,headqua

41、rtered in Shanghai.Since it started operations in 2015 it has approved almost USD33 billion of loans mainly for water,transport and other infrastructure projects.However,the Russia-Ukraine war saw the bank freeze Russian projects and Russia has not been able to access dollars via the shared foreign-

42、currency system.Member countries seem to have prioritised access to the dollar-based financial system over helping Russia.Russia has proposed changes to cross-border payments between BRICS countries but how much traction this proposal gathers remains to be seen.A BRICS currency,to rival the US dolla

43、r,seems highly unlikely,especially as it is opposed by Trump.Of course,the global geopolitical situation especially the role of Russia acts as an impediment to co-operation within the BRICS.2025 may well,however,see an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.Such a deal would likely include three elemen

44、ts:a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine;an agreement for Ukraine not to join NATO;and a lifting of at least some sanctions on Russia.That seems workable,although maybe not on the ambitious timetable(“within 24 hours”)proposed by president-elect Trump.Figure 4 Bigger,better BRICSFigure 5 BRICS to

45、 account for over half of 2025 global GDP growthBRICS grow in importance2Share of world populationTotal world growthShare of world GDP45%3.2%37%Source:IMF World Economic Outlook via LSEG and EFGAM calculations.Data as at 20 November 2024.Source:LSEG;Oxford Economics and EFGAM calculations.Data as at

46、 14 November 2024.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%1.6%BRICS and emerging economiesUS,G7 and advanced economiesBRICSOtherEMsUSOther G7 and advancedeconomiesEFG|Outlook 202510Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTHEME 3Focus of policy shifts from inflation to employmentInflation battle wonThe battle against inflati

47、on is largely won.The focus will move to job creation.Dual mandateThe shift is easiest in the US where the Fed has a dual mandate low inflation and maximum employment.But the shift will be seen elsewhere.Importance of job creationJob creation is a high priority in many countries,especially for those

48、 displaced from the workforce.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202511Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications11With the battle against inflation largely won(indeed,it may well fall further and undershoot targets,especially if there is fiscal consolidation),2025 will be a year when the focus of policy turn

49、s to employment.Unemployment levels in the major advanced economies are not particularly high,but they are above the lowest rates seen in recent years(see Figure 6).Furthermore,participation rates the proportion of working-age people employed or actively seeking work are worryingly low in some econo

50、mies.Such a shift of focus is facilitated in the US by the fact that the central bank has a dual mandate:to achieve price stability and maximum employment.Indeed,pre-Covid,when inflation had been low and stable for some time,the Federal Reserve openly supported a policy of running the economy hot to

51、 create more jobs.This can be seen in the rise in the ratio of vacancies to unemployment from the mid-2010s up until the pandemic.In its strategy statements,the Fed has not explicitly defined maximum employment.Indeed,it is probably very hard to define precisely and will almost certainly change over

52、 time owing largely to factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labour market.Nevertheless,the Federal Reserve plans,during 2025,to conduct a new review of the statement of longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy.A similar exercise was concluded in August 2020.The path to a more e

53、xplicit statement about employment is open.Other central banks have dual mandates,but none explicitly include an employment objective.The Bank of England,for example,has a primary monetary policy objective to keep inflation at 2%over the medium term,with support for the governments other economic ai

54、ms a secondary objective.It is possible,although unlikely,that the inflation target could be changed it is set by the government.There is the potential for a higher target rate of inflation,allowing lower interest rates and possibly a boost to growth and employment.Around the world the promotion of

55、higher employment is much more likely to be achieved by direct measures to promote employment rather than indirect monetary measures.The need to do that is even more important in several emerging economies,especially in Africa,where unemployment rates remain stubbornly high.The European Central Bank

56、 and the Swiss National Bank,of course,have just a single mandate:price stability.It is notable that,relative to the US and UK,both have lower interest rates than pre-pandemic.Focus of policy shifts from inflation to employment3Source:LSEG.Data as at 20 November 2024.1%0%2%3%4%5%6%7%EurozoneSwitzerl

57、andUKJapanUSLatest rateLowest rate in last 10 yearsFigure 6 Unemployment rates close to the lows of recent yearsEFG|Outlook 202512Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTHEME 4Government deficits remain a problem Government budget deficits and debts are highGlobal government debt has reached USD 1

58、00 trillion and high deficits mean debt levels will rise further.No austerityHigh debt levels will not lead to austerity policies.Indeed,some countries may move in the opposite direction.DOGEPresident-elect Trumps approach of radical transparency and the establishment of the Department of Government

59、 Efficiency(DOGE)represents a bold attempt to tackle a bloated public sector.Will other countries follow?Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202513Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications13Government budget deficits and debt levels(accumulated deficits over time)around the world are high.Global government de

60、bt has reached USD100 trillion and is projected by the IMF to rise to 100%of GDP by the end of the decade(see Figure 7).In the US and China debt levels are already around that 100%level.After the global financial crisis such debt levels were widely considered as unsustainable and many governments to

61、ok action to stabilise or reduce debt.High debt ushered in a period of austerity:notably,measures to reduce government spending.That is not likely to be repeated in current circumstances.There is an intolerance for austerity almost everywhere.To assess the debt and deficit situation in different cou

62、ntries we can look at three key aspects of the situation.1.First,is the level of government debt below 100%of GDP or not?Above that level was seen as a problem after the global financial crisis because it was considered the level beyond which economic growth would be impaired.But the concern has a l

63、onger pedigree:for some time it has been seen as the level at which a snowball effect would mean debt levels spiral out of control,mainly because of the need to pay interest on the accumulated debt.That is,indeed,a current concern in the US,where interest payments on government debt are estimated at

64、 USD1 trillion in fiscal year 2025,20%of government revenue.2 Encouragingly,of the 21 economies listed in Figure 8(the G20 plus Switzerland)fifteen have debt levels below 100%of GDP in 2025.2.The second question is whether the debt ratio is stable or falling.Even if it is above 100%,a stable or fall

65、ing level can be regarded as less of concern.Eleven of the 21 countries in Figure 8 have debt below 100%of GDP and a debt level which is stable or falling as a share of GDP.We give them an“A”grade.Government deficits remain a problem4 For the UK,a modest further reduction in the budget deficit would

66、 suffice to stabilise the debt ratio.Figure 7 World public debt set to surpass 100%of GDP by end of the decade502001200520092013201720212025202960708090100110%of GDPSource:IMF Fiscal Monitor,October 2024.EFG|Outlook 202514Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications3.The final question is,if the debt r

67、atio is not stable or falling,whether corrective measures are feasible.The measures involve either deficit reduction by increasing revenue or decreasing spending;or boosting nominal growth by increasing real GDP growth or tolerating higher inflation.The combination of these factors determines our as

68、sessment of debt sustainability.Take the UK as an example:its government debt is above 100%of GDP;it is still rising in the coming years;but measures to stabilise the debt level can realistically be made.For the UK,a modest further reduction in the budget deficit would suffice to stabilise the debt

69、ratio.For the US and France,however,the situation is worse.In France,there are clear limits to raising taxes further,given the already very high tax burden.There is a real risk that continued high government spending cannot be reasonably addressed and this crowds out the private sector.In the US,pre

70、sident-elect Trumps approach of radical transparency and the establishment of the DOGE represents a bold attempt to tackle a bloated public sector.It remains to be seen how effective it will be and whether indeed other countries use a similar approach if it shows early success.Source:CBO June 2024 B

71、udget projectionsFigure 8 Debt sustainability scorecardEconomiesIs the debt level below 100%of GDP?Is the debt ratio stable or falling?If not,are measures to stabilise debt realistic?GradeA to EGermany,Switzerland,Eurozone,Russia,India,Turkey,Australia,South Korea,Argentina,Indonesia and MexicoYESYE

72、Sn/aABrazilYESNOYESBJapan and CanadaNOYESn/aCChina,South Africa and Saudi ArabiaYESNONOCItaly and UKNONOYESDUS and FranceNONONOESource:IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2024 and EFGAM calculations.Data are forecasts for 2025.The above data is based on projections.Certain assumptions have been made regardin

73、g the above information and such information is provided by way of illustration only.Any changes to these assumptions may have a material impact on the assessment presented.EFG|Outlook 202515Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsEFG|Outlook 202516Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications16Innovat

74、ion and changeThe rapid adoption of generative AI will be a big theme of 2025.As it does,electricity demand will surge and nuclear power will become more attractive.Competitive advantage will accrue to those companies and countries able to tap such sources.5 AI goes mainstream6 Nuclear power renaiss

75、anceTHEME 5Rapid adoption of generative AIThe uptake of generative AI has been faster than the adoption of the internet,when it was launched.US is the leaderThe US leads Europe and China in the development of AI.This is a big competitive advantage for the US.A new infrastructureCloud-based infrastru

76、cture needs to grow and adapt to accommodate these changes.AI goes mainstreamKey statementsEFG|Outlook 202517Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications17The adoption rate of generative AI has been rapid.40%of users in the workplace now use it,according to one study.That is twice the adoption rate of

77、the internet at a similar stage after its introduction.Generative AI is quickly becoming a mainstream technology and 2025 will be a year in which it progresses much further.That may well be the start of a multi-year development in the industry.Jensen Huang,Nvidia CEO,has claimed the computing power

78、driving advances in AI will see a fourfold increase annually.That would be a millionfold increase over the next decade.There is always a degree of hype surrounding new innovations,of course.Sometimes it is justified by future developments.The current extent to which the internet is used is way beyon

79、d the expectations at the time of the initial public offerings of Amazon and Google in 1997 and 2004,respectively.The US is very much the leader in investing in AI(Figure 9)with China and Europe far behind,according to one estimate.This provides an important source of strength for the US economy,esp

80、ecially if,as we expect,it feeds through to higher productivity growth.Estimates of the potential impact on productivity growth are,however,very diverse.AI is a disruptive technology and,as with all such developments,there will be inevitable changes in employment.The switch from the current,widely-u

81、sed CPU chips in computers,cars and cloud storage,to GPU chips which are used for AI and machine learning is one such change.One important concern stemming from this is that AI technologies are very energy-intensive.They will place additional demands on electricity generation in a world which is alr

82、eady transitioning to greater electricity use(in transport,with electric vehicles;in industry,with a move away from fossil fuels;and in domestic use,for air conditioning and heating).That leads us to our next main theme,the growth of electricity demand and how this will be met.Source:Federal Reserve

83、 Bank of St Louis.Figure 9 US AI investment eclipses that of China and the eurozoneAI goes mainstream5 Jensen Huang,Nvidia CEO,has claimed the computing power driving advances in AI will see a fourfold increase annually.Source:Banca dItalia Governor Fabio Panetta,IMF World Bank Meetings,23 October 2

84、024.32010020USD billionUSD billionUSD billionAI investment over the last decadeUSChinaEurozoneEFG|Outlook 202518Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTHEME Nuclear power renaissanceSurge in demand for electricityGlobal electricity demand will increase due to the electrification of housing,transpo

85、rt and industry,data centres and cryptocurrencies.AI searches are very power hungryThe electricity consumption of AI and AI-enabled searches is far higher than standard searches:ten times as high or even greater.Needs met by nuclearNuclear power,especially with small modular reactors will be the res

86、ponse to this increased electricity need.Competitive advantage will be the catalyst.6Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202519Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications19In the coming years,global electricity demand will be supported by the ongoing electrification of housing,transport and industry as well as

87、a notable expansion of data centres.The share of electricity in final energy consumption is expected to continue to rise:from 18%in 2015,to 20%in 2023 and 30%in 2030(on the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5C).Electricity consumption from d

88、ata centres,AI and the cryptocurrency sector could double between 2023 and 2026,reaching 1,000 terawatt-hours(TWh)in 2026.That would be equivalent to the current electricity consumption of Japan;and it would be similar to the expected electricity needs of all electric vehicles on the road in 2030.Th

89、e electricity consumption of AI and AI-enabled searches is far higher than standard searches:ten times as high or even greater.On the basis of expected rapid growth in AI-related searches,various tech companies have sought to invest in nuclear electricity generation from either the re-commissioning

90、of standard nuclear generating capacity which may have been mothballed or from the new technology of small modular reactors(SMRs).SMRs are designed to be compact,simple to construct in a factory and then transported and assembled on site.When used to power data centres they are typically co-located

91、with them.SMRs have a generation capacity typically of a few hundred megawatts(MW).So,several SMRs running together would have a capacity similar to that of a traditional nuclear power plant(700-1000 MW).Given that nuclear power can generate electricity almost continuously,the electricity generated

92、from a 1000 MW system would be close to 1,000 TWh per year.We see an important national security angle to this development.The US generates almost a fifth of its electricity needs from nuclear but the proportion is much higher in several European countries and South Korea.That puts them at a relativ

93、e advantage to countries such as Germany,that have phased out their nuclear energy programmes,a process that intensified after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant explosion in 1986 and the Fukushima disaster in 2011.Figure 10 AI-powered searches are much more electricity intensiveNuclear power renaiss

94、ance6AI-powered Google searchGoogle search8.0 Wh2.9 Wh0.3 WhChatGPTSource:Alex de Vries The growing energy footprint of AI.EFG|Outlook 202520Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsNuclear capacity is being added at a very high rate in China(see Figure 11).Nuclear power electricity generation eithe

95、r under construction,planned or proposed,amounts to more than 2000 TWh,similar to the worlds total electricity generation from nuclear in 2023.If that is put in place,there will be another new dimension to Chinas relative advantage over other major economies.Figure 11 China leads in electricity gene

96、ration from nuclear powerGlobal electricity generation from nuclear in 2023(in TWh)0ChinaRussiaIndiaJapanUKKoreaROW5001,0001,5002,0002,500PlannedProposedUnder constructionTerrawatt-hours(TWh)Source:International Energy Agency,World Energy Outlook 2023.World Nuclear Association,World Nuclear Performa

97、nce Report 2023.2,233EFG|Outlook 202521Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsEFG|Outlook 202522Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications22Equity and bond market opportunitiesWe see corporate earnings,especially in the US,continuing to be supported in 2025.The high concentration of the US equity m

98、arket is not a problem in itself.We favour the consumer discretionary sector:consumers are in a better position to spend and the sector is relatively cheap compared to other sectors.Two general opportunities are evident in the bond markets:yield curve steepening and spread opportunities.7 Corporate

99、earnings still supported8 Market concentration:a relative danger9 Consumer discretionary is our favoured sector10 Yield curve steepeningTHEME 7Corporate earnings still supportedCorporate earnings growthCorporate earnings have historically grown over the long-term.But in the short-term the extent to

100、which they surprise expectations is important for the equity market.Can earnings growth surprise on the upside in 2025?In the last two years,earnings have been broadly in line with expectations and the S&P 500 has produced gains of over 20%each year.Current market expectations are for 10%earnings gr

101、owth in 2025.Market concentrationOne concern about whether such earnings growth will be attained is the degree of concentration in the US stock market.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202523Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications23Corporate earnings generally grow over time as a result of the nominal gro

102、wth(real growth and price increases combined)in the economy.That,in a sense,is the ultimate driver of the top line or revenue growth of all companies.For US S&P 500 companies,this trend is demonstrated in Figure 12.The long-term growth of S&P 500 earnings per share is shown alongside the S&P 500 ind

103、ex.The right-hand axis,showing the price index,is 20 the left-hand axis,showing earnings per share.So,if the two series moved exactly in line with each other,the S&P 500 index would consistently trade at a price/earnings(P/E)multiple of 20.Of course,that is not the case.The pattern is not a smooth o

104、ne.There are clear variations from year to year,when the price index becomes high or low relative to the earnings level.But the general trend is evident.Over shorter periods,however,how earnings growth compares with expectations often termed the earnings surprise is correlated with S&P 500 returns(w

105、ith a correlation co-efficient of 37%over the period 1 January 1989 to 5 November 2024).We take expected earnings as the trend rate of growth of earnings,rather than the expectations at the start of each year which can be highly volatile.Several years are worthy of highlighting.In 2021,earnings were

106、 significantly ahead of expectations and the S&P 500 produced returns of 27%.The following year,earnings disappointed relative to expectations and returns were minus 20%.In the last two years,earnings have been broadly in line with expectations and the S&P 500 has produced gains of over 20%in each y

107、ear.Looking ahead,this suggests the key to returns is whether earnings expectations for 2025 are realised.Current expectations are for 10%growth in 2025,a little above the long-term trend growth in earnings(6%p.a.over the last ten years).One concern about whether such earnings growth will be attaine

108、d is the degree of concentration in the US stock market,our next main theme for 2025.Corporate earnings still supported7 Current expectations are for 10%growth in 2025,a little above the long-term trend growth in earnings.0EPS,USDIndex200020052010201520202025F1002003000200040006000S&P 500 Index(end

109、year,RH axis)Reported earnings per share USDSource:Howard Silverblatt,S&P Dow Jones Indices,S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report.Data as at 24 October 2024.Past performance is not indicative of future results.Figure 12 Earnings and the S&P 500 in the long runEFG|Outlook 202524Themes 2025How we did i

110、n 2024PublicationsTHEME 8Market concentration:a relative dangerTop 10 companies in the US marketThe top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index currently account for 35%of its market capitalisation.Such a level of concentration has not been seen since the end of 1962.Three factors to considerThree factors

111、 suggest this is not a problem in itself:historic parallels;selecting appropriate valuation measures;and the risk of not owning the largest stocks.Parallels with the late 1990s?The TMT(technology,media and telecom)dot com boom of the late 1990s was the last time we saw similar concentration.That tur

112、ned to the dot com bust.Earnings and valuation trends suggest the risk of a repeat is low.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202525Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications25The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index currently account for 35%of its market capitalisation.The market is therefore more concentrat

113、ed than it has been for many years.Such a level of concentration has not been seen since the end of 1962,when AT&T alone was over 10%of the S&P 500.There has been a good deal of commentary warning about the dangers of such con centration,especially given the high P/E multiples of those top 10 stocks

114、.We would make three main points,which indicate that this is not a problem in itself but rather raises issues about the valuation and performance of those large companies relative to the rest of the market.1.With reference to that earlier period of high market concentration in the 1960s,from the end

115、 of 1962(when the market capitalisation of the top 10 stocks first exceeded 35%),the S&P 500 gained an additional 50%until an eventual bear market started in February 1966.So,it was over three years before the feared bear market materialised.2.The valuation of the largest ten stocks cannot properly

116、be judged on a simple metric such as the historic price/earnings ratio.Rather it needs to take into account prospects for revenue and earnings growth,cash flow,reinvestment needs,the competitive landscape and any multiple expansion or contraction.3.Not owning the largest stocks is,in itself,a somewh

117、at risky strategy for those assessed against the performance of a broad US stock market index.Not owning such stocks involves a large tracking error risk.The last time we witnessed strong US equity market performance based on a small number of stocks was in the late 1990s.That was the time of the TM

118、T(technology,media and telecom)and dot com boom.That boom turned to bust in the early 2000s.Figure 13 shows an interesting parallel between that period and now.The S&P 500 index rose by 215%in the six years from 1 January 1994 to 1 January 2000.The overall gain ran ahead of the increase in earnings(

119、101%)and the P/E multiple of the overall market expanded from 20.2 to 31.6.In the six years starting on 1 January 2019,the S&P 500 has gained 139%,much less than in that earlier 6-year period.Earnings growth has been only half as strong as in the late 1990s.As a result,the P/E multiple has expanded

120、at almost the same rate in the two periods.On that basis,the time does not seem ripe for an impending correction in the market.Having said that,there are relatively better opportunities elsewhere in the broad US equity market.We see a favourable prospect in small and mid-sized companies in growth ar

121、eas of the market(notably technology)where valuations are more reasonable than those of the large cap stocks.Additionally,such companies may well benefit if president-elect Trump pursues an agenda of breaking up larger companies on competition grounds.Market concentration:a relative danger8Figure 13

122、 Just like the 1990s?Source:LSEG Data&Analytics and EFGAM calculations.Data as of 14 November 2024.Past performance is not indicative of future resultsEFG|Outlook 202526Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsS&P 500 indexS&P 500 earningsRise in the P/E ratio1 January 1994 1 January 2000+215%+101%+

123、56%(from 20.2 to 31.6)1 January 2019 14 November 2024+139%+51%+58%(from 18.7 to 28.4)THEME 9Consumer discretionary is our favoured sectorOur sector pickThe consumer discretionary sector is our favoured area of the US and global equity market for 2025.Support from fundamentalsWage growth,employment t

124、rends,accumulated savings,wealth effects and falling interest rates are,in varying degrees,supportive of consumer spending in 2025.Equity market valuationsValuations in the consumer discretionary sector are relatively cheaper in the US and even cheaper outside of the US.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202

125、527Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications27The consumer discretionary sector is our favoured area of the US and global equity market for 2025.We see three broadly supportive economic fundamentals for that sector in 2025.1.First,wage and employment growth are likely to hold up well in most economi

126、es.Wages should grow in real terms,as a result of nominal wage gains(which in themselves were a lagged response to past high inflation)running ahead of inflation,which itself will fall further.We see that phenomenon in the US,UK,across Europe,Japan and in China.2.Second,on our estimates,in the euroz

127、one,UK,China and Canada,consumers still have some accumulated excess savings after the pandemic(see Figure 14).These excess savings have,however,been largely eroded in the US and the current savings rate is low.However,in the US,consumers have enjoyed stronger wealth effects from rising equity and h

128、ousing markets.Indeed,these accumulated wealth gains in the US are much larger than excess savings at their peak.In the third quarter of 2024,household net worth was as much as USD46 trillion higher than immediately pre-Covid.3.Third,falling interest rates will benefit consumers,particularly in the

129、UK where a greater proportion of borrowing is linked to short-term interest rates.In the consumer discretionary sector,valuations are close to fair value on the basis of our proprietary model.This takes into account seven valuation measures.That fair value assessment is for the global consumer discr

130、etionary sector,which reflects relatively higher valuations in the US and lower valuations in Europe,UK,Asia and Japan.Other sectors are either more expensively valued or lack fundamental support.Consumer discretionary is our favoured sector900.51.01.52.02.5USEurozoneChinaCanadaUKJapanAustraliaUSD t

131、rillionsend 2024end 2021Source:LSEG and EFGAM calculations.Data as at 20 November 2024.Figure 14 US excess savings eroded and low savings elsewhereEFG|Outlook 202528Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsTHEME 10Yield curve steepening Range of opportunitiesThere is always an interesting range of o

132、pportunities in the fixed income market.In 2025 we see two particularly interesting areas.Yield curve steepeningWe think there will be a general tendency for yield curves to steepen,particularly in the US.Yield spreadsThere are yield spread related opportunities in the eurozone as well as corporate

133、and high yield markets and the BRICS.Key statementsEFG|Outlook 202529Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications29There are two interesting areas of opportunity we see in fixed income markets for 2025.1.First,we think there will be a general tendency for yield curves to steepen,particularly in the US(

134、see Figure 15).Such a view is quite widely held.The conventional explanation is that there will be more short-term interest rate cuts by policymakers as inflation recedes further;and that there will be upward pressure on long-term bond yields as a result of high,and potentially rising,government def

135、icits.However,in three of the last four yield curve steepening episodes,the dynamics have been different.In 1989-92,the yield curve steepened from-18 basis points to+389 basis points.But the steepening was predominantly due to a very large fall in short-term rates(from 8%to 3%)with 10-year yields al

136、so falling(from 7.8%to 6.8%).A very similar pattern was seen in 2000-2002 when short-term interest rates fell to 1%and 10-year yields remained little changed;and in 2007-2009 when short-term rates fell to zero and 10-year yields dropped from 4.7%to 3.8%.The Covid-era yield curve steepening was the o

137、nly one of the last four steepenings which saw 10-year yields rise.Arguably,that was because of a slow response by the Fed to rising inflation a mistake they are unlikely to make again.On balance,that leads us to think that although a yield curve steepening is likely,it may well not develop because

138、of a significant rise in 10-year yields.We expect that it is likely to be mainly driven by reductions in policy rates.Yield curve steepening102.The second area of opportunity is in government bond yield spreads.In the eurozone,government bond yield spreads have widened over Germany,notably for Franc

139、e.The Italian bond yield differential is even wider.On the basis of the relative deficit and debt fundamentals described in Theme 4,we expect the French market to underperform its eurozone peers.There are spread-related opportunities in corporate and high yield markets,but sector and company selecti

140、on are more important than ever in an environment characterised by political and competitive change.We also continue to see opportunities in emerging market hard and local currency debt,given the stronger environment we envisage for the BRICS.Source:LSEG and EFGAM calculations.Data as at 20 November

141、 2024.Past performance is not indicative of future results.Figure 15 US yield curve slope on the up10-year bond yield minus 3-month Treasury bill rate100200300-300-200-1000Basis points20242021202220232020EFG|Outlook 202530Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsEach year we review the predictions m

142、ade in the previous year.Overall score for our 2024 predictions:7/101 Correct World economy has a soft landingOur most likely scenario was for a soft landing for the world economy in 2024,with the US avoiding recession.A soft landing did,indeed,occur.World growth was 3.2%after 3.3%growth in 2023,acc

143、ording to the IMFs latest forecasts.That was driven,particularly,by the US and two emerging economies(Brazil and India).China was marginally ahead of its expected 2024 growth(4.8%compared to 4.5%).2 Correct Productivity gainsWe saw productivity gains driving growth,particularly in the US economy.Tha

144、t proved to be the case.Productivity growth was almost 3%year-on-year in the first half of the year.3 Correct Fiscal fragilityWe thought that fiscal fragility specifically,a concern over high government debt levels and ongoing deficits would be a major concern.That was,indeed,the case and by the end

145、 of the year had become a major theme in many economies:the US,UK and France,in particular.4 Correct Political turbulence2024 was certainly turbulent on the political front.Many incumbent parties were punished,notably for high inflation over the past few years.Perhaps most notably,Donald Trump was e

146、lected President of the US,with the Republicans taking a clean sweep in the House and Senate.How we did in 2024EFG|Outlook 202531Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications5 Correct Demographics is(still)destiny Much attention was placed on demographic trends during 2024,with the sharp drop in fertili

147、ty rates attracting particular attention.In most advanced economies the rate fell below 2.1(the replacement rate)which means populations will decline over time.6 Partly correct Weight loss and consumer staplesWe thought the popularity of weight loss drugs would surge in 2024 and that the potential m

148、arket was huge.At the same time,we thought the impact on the consumer staples sector had been exaggerated and the sector would do well.While the first view was certainly correct,the consumer staples sector underperformed the wider equity market.7 Partly correct Clean energy transition The transition

149、 from fossil fuels to clean energy clearly continued,but there was some disappointment about the pace of change.That was particularly the case in emerging economies,a key issue at the COP29 Summit in November 2024.8 Incorrect Undervalued currencies recoverWe thought that several currencies,which had

150、 become very undervalued against the US dollar would recover.In particular,we expected the Japanese yen to do so.That was not the case:the yen was 7%weaker against the US dollar by the end of November.Sterling,another undervalued currency,was marginally positive against the dollar over the year.9 Co

151、rrect Bond opportunities We saw three interesting opportunities in bond markets for 2024:shorter-dated maturities,to offer protection against rising interest rates(that proved correct shorter-dated bonds produced positive returns whereas 10-year bonds produced basically flat returns);selected conver

152、tible bonds(which worked well-the overall market produced returns of 14%);and inflation-linked bonds(which produced positive returns,and outperformed longer-dated nominal bonds).10 Incorrect Favour small cap stocks We favoured small cap stocks.Generally,they underperformed the broader equity market:

153、the Russell 2000 index did indeed lag the S&P 500 index,but with a price return of 20%compared to 26%,respectively).The gap in performance narrowed substantially in the final six months of the year.EFG|Outlook 202532Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsPodcast:Beyond the Benchmark Moz Afzal,EFGs

154、 Chief Investment Officer,shares his insights on the developments shaping the markets and the global economy,speaking with special guests who have a particular point of viewInView Global House View Offering asset allocation guidelines,macro over views and investment ideasThe icons alongside represen

155、t our investment process.Through a disciplined provision of investment policy and security selection at the global level,regional portfolio management teams have the flexibility to construct portfolios to meet the specific requirements of our clients.2024 FebruaryOVERVIEWHIGHLIGHTED IN THIS PUBLICAT

156、ION:Global security selectionGlobal strategic asset allocationRegional asset allocationRegional portfolio constructionInViewGlobal house view&investment perspectivesFEBRUARY 2024Stay updated on investment opportunities,macroeconomic trends,market movements and the global economic outlook with our su

157、ite of investment content.Annual flagship publicationsCore publicationsFor further information and to sign up to receive our regular investment publications,please visit our Insights page at: Daily Market Note Summarising the most important market events from the past 24 hoursInVisionWeekly Macro No

158、teOutlining the main macroeconomic events from the past weekMajor equity indices end week at all-time highsMajor equity indices end week at all-time highs04 MARCH 2024Attention for the week was on the release of the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge,t expenditures(PCE)price index,so that ma

159、rkets could try and gather further clues for the path Thursday,the core PCE index rose 2.8%year-on-year in January,matching expectations and Gains continued on Friday,with markets shrugging off comments from Fed policymakers who rush to cut rates.This coming week chairman Jerome Powell will testify

160、before Congress,so t Friday will see the release of Februarys job report for a further indicator on the health of the eFor the week,the S&P 500 managed to end at a record high,its fifteenth of the year and climb continued to fuel a large part of the rise,although gains were broad-based across sector

161、s.Th the week and on Thursday it managed to hit a fresh record high for the first time since 2021.marginally lower.Treasury yields moved lower,with the 10-year yield ending at 4.19%for the Managements manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)fell more than expected in F pressuring yields.European

162、 markets also climbed to new heights,with the pan-European STOXX hitting an all-ti sensitive stocks.For the week the index only eked out a 0.2%gain,but it still extended its win year,the German DAX has been one of the top European performers and the index also ende French and UK indices were lower f

163、or the week.Sentiment was somewhat dampened after eu less than expected,with an economic sentiment indicator also unexpectedly declining and the remained in contraction.After managing to top its high after 34 years the previous week,Japans Nikkei 225 continued of the 40,000 mark.Japanese stocks have

164、 benefited from the weaker yen and corporate gove was also seen in China,who saw a strong February after a weaker start to the year.Stocks fo stimulus measures from the government.For the week the Shanghai Composite gained 0.7%InVisionTrending news stories from the past weekUS headline PCE inflation

165、 rose 2.4%year-on-year(YoY)in January,below the 2.6%YoY increase registered in December.Goods prices fell 0.5%YoY,below the 0.2%YoY increase in December.This reflected a 2.4%YoY drop in durable goods prices which was partially offset by a 0.5%YoY increase apanese headline CPI inflation fell Sw from

166、2.6%year-on-year(YoY)in qu December to 2.2%YoY in January.the Core inflation,which excludes fresh ab food and is the measure focused on by gro the Bank of Japan(BoJ),declined from dra 2.3%YoY to 2.0%.US MarketsMajor equity indices end week at all-time highs21 FEBRUARY 2024Tuesday saw the US markets

167、experience a tough trading session with the major closing in negative territory.The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%,the Dow Jones Industria experienced a downturn of 0.2%and the Nasdaq Composite experienced the lar tumbling 0.9%.Amongst sectors,10 out of the 11 closed the session down but co staples experience

168、d positive performance and closed the session up 1.1%.Albem was amongst the top decliners on Tuesday,falling 6.3%despite announcing an a with BMW Group for lithium for hydroxide supplies.In contrast,Discover Financi was the standout performer within the S&P 500.The stock rose 12.6%after Capi agreed

169、to buy their rival for$35.3 billion.The US 10-year Treasury yield closed th down at 4.275%.InTimeTrending news stories from the past 24hoursWelcome to the February edition of Inview:Global House View.in 202321 February 2024US MarketsSource:Refintiv.Data as at 20 February 2024.Graphs indicate full ye

170、ar performance.Past performance is not necessarily a g Contact usEFG Asset Management(UK)Limited Park House,116 Park Street London,W1K 6APUS MarketsMajor equity indices end week at all-time highs21 FEBRUARY 2024Tuesday saw the US markets experience a tough trading session with the major closing in n

171、egative territory.The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%,the Dow Jones Industria experienced a downturn of 0.2%and the Nasdaq Composite experienced the lar tumbling 0.9%.Amongst sectors,10 out of the 11 closed the session down but co staples experienced positive performance and closed the session up 1.1%.Albem wa

172、s amongst the top decliners on Tuesday,falling 6.3%despite announcing an a with BMW Group for lithium for hydroxide supplies.In contrast,Discover Financi was the standout performer within the S&P 500.The stock rose 12.6%after Capi agreed to buy their rival for$35.3 billion.The US 10-year Treasury yi

173、eld closed th down at 4.275%.InTimeTrending news stories from the past 24hoursWelcome to the February edition of Inview:Global House View.Source:Refintiv.Data as at 20 February 2024.Graphs indicate full year performance.Past performance is not necessarily a g US inflation softens to lowest lewel in

174、over three yearsInFocusMacro CommentAn analysis of prevailing market eventsThe icons alongside represent our investment process.Through a disciplined provision of investment policy and security selection at the global level,regional portfolio management teams have the flexibility to construct portfo

175、lios to meet the specific requirements of our clients.OVERVIEWHIGHLIGHTED IN THIS PUBLICATION:MONTHLY GLOBAL HOUSE VIEW&INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVESINVIEWREGIONALASSET ALLOCATIONREGIONAL PORTFOLIOCONSTRUCTIONGLOBAL STRATEGICASSET ALLOCATIONGLOBAL SECURITYSELECTIONDISCIPLINED BY NATURE.FLEXIBLE BY DESIGN.

176、The icons alongside represent our investment process.Through a disciplined provision of investment policy and security selection at the global level,regional portfolio management teams have the flexibility to construct portfolios to meet the specific requirements of our clients.HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS P

177、UBLICATION:FEBRUARY 2024Focus on ChinaFEBRUARY 2024InFocusMacro commentMARCH 2024Investment publicationsOutlook Our top 10 themes for the year ahead Outlook2025OUR TOP 10 THEMES FOR THE YEAR AHEADCapital Market AssumptionsA view on how we expect asset classes to behave over the next 7-10 yearsLong-T

178、erm Capital Market Assumptions1ST ANNUAL EDITION 2025EFG|Outlook 202533Themes 2025How we did in 2024PublicationsImportant disclaimersThis document has been produced by EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited for use by the EFG International(EFG Group or EFG)worldwide subsidiaries and affiliates within the E

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229、 on your own judgement or the advice from such independent advisors whom you have chosen to consult,evaluate whether the investment is suitable for you in view of your risk appetite,investment experience,objectives,financial resources and circumstances,and make such other investigation as you consid

230、er necessary and without relying in any way on EFG Singapore.Switzerland:EFG Bank AG,Zurich,including its Geneva and Lugano branches,is authorised and regulated by the FINMA.Registered Office:EFG Bank AG,Bleicherweg 8,8001 Zurich,Switzerland.Registered Swiss Branches:EFG Bank SA,24 quai du Seujet,12

231、11 Geneva 2,and EFG Bank SA,Via Magatti 2,6900 Lugano.United Kingdom:EFG Private Bank Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.EFG Private Bank Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchang

232、e.Registered company no.02321802.Registered address:EFG Private Bank Limited,Park House,116 Park Street,London W1K 6AP,United Kingdom,telephone+44(0)20 7491 9111.USA:EFG Asset Management(Americas)Corp(“EFGAM Americas”)is a U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)registered investment adviser pr

233、oviding investment advisory services.Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply any level of skill or training.EFGAM Americas may only transact business or render personalized investment advice in those states and international jurisdictions where it is registered,has

234、 notice filed,or is otherwise excluded or exempted from registration requirements.An investor should consider his or her investment objectives,risks,charges and expenses carefully before investing.For more information on EFGAM Americas,its business practices,background,conflict of interests,fees cha

235、rged for services and other relevant information,please visit the SECs public investor information site at:https:/www.investor.gov.Also,you may visit:https:/adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/158905.In both of these sites you may obtain copies of EFGAM Americass most recent Form ADV Part 1,Part 2 and

236、Form CRS.EFGAM Americas Registered address:701 Brickell Avenue,Suite 1350 Miami,FL 33131.EFG Capital International Corp.(“EFG Capital”)is a U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)registered broker-dealer and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority(“FINRA”)and the Securities Inves

237、tor Protection Corporation(“SIPC”).Securities products and brokerage services are provided by EFG Capital.None of the SEC,FINRA or SIPC,have endorsed this document or the services and products provided by EFG Capital and its U.S.based affiliates.Registered address:701 Brickell Avenue,Ninth Floor&Sui

238、te 1350 Miami,FL 33131.EFG Capital and EFGAM Americas are affiliated by common ownership under EFGI and maintain mutually associated personnel.The products and services described herein have not been authorized by any regulator or supervisory authority,and further are not subject to supervision by a

239、ny regulatory authority outside of the United States.Please note the content herein was produced and created by EFG Bank AG/EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited(as applicable).This material is not to be construed as created or otherwise originated from EFG Capital or EFGAM Americas.Neither EFGAM Americas

240、 nor EFG Capital represent themselves as the underlying manager or investment adviser of this Fund/product or strategy.EFG Asset Management(North America)Corp.(EFGAM NA)is a US Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)Registered Investment Adviser For more information on EFGAM NA Corp,its business,aff

241、iliations,fees,disciplinary events,and possible conflicts of interests please visit the SEC Investment Advisor Public Disclosure website(https:/adviserinfo.sec.gov/)and review its Form ADV.Information for investors in Australia:For Professional,Institutional and Wholesale Investors Only.This documen

242、t has been prepared and issued by EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited,a private limited company with registered number 7389736 and with its registered office address at Park House,Park Street,London W1K 6AP(telephone number+44(0)20 7491 9111).EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited is regulated and authorized b

243、y the Financial Conduct Authority No.536771.EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Auth

244、ority of the United Kingdom(FCA Registration No.536771)under the laws of the United Kingdom which differ from Australian laws.This document is personal and intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is given or sent and may not be reproduced,in whole or in part,to any other person.ASIC Cla

245、ss Order CO 03/1099EFG Asset Management(UK)Limited notifies you that it is relying on the Australian Securities&Investments Commission(ASIC)Class Order CO 03/1099(Class Order)exemption(as extended in operation by ASIC Corporations(Repeal and Transitional Instrument 2016/396)for UK Financial Conduct

246、Authority(FCA)regulated firms which exempts it from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence(AFSL)under the Corporations Act 2001(Cth)(Corporations Act)in respect of the financial services we provide to you.UK Regulatory Requirements The financial services that we provide to

247、you are regulated by the FCA under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom which are different to Australia.Consequently any offer or other documentation that you receive from us in the course of us providing financial services to you will be prepared in accordance with those laws

248、 and regulatory requirements.The UK regulatory requirements refer to legislation,rules enacted pursuant to the legislation and any other relevant policies or documents issued by the FCA.Your Status as a Wholesale Client In order that we may provide financial services to you,and for us to comply with

249、 the Class Order,you must be a wholesale client within the meaning given by section 761G of the Corporations Act.Accordingly,by accepting any documentation from us prior to the commencement of or in the course of us providing financial services to you,you:warrant to us that you are a wholesale clien

250、t;agree to provide such information or evidence that we may request from time to time to confirm your status as a wholesale client;agree that we may cease providing financial services to you if you are no longer a wholesale client or do not provide us with information or evidence satisfactory to us to confirm your status as a wholesale client;and agree to notify us in writing within 5 business days if you cease to be a wholesale client for the purposes of the financial services that we provide to you.EFG.All rights reservedEFG|Outlook 202534Themes 2025How we did in 2024Publications