牛津大學能源研究所：2024年中國新能源汽車年度總結報告電動汽車革命（英文版）（28頁）.pdf

1、OIES CHINA PROGRAMME:An update on Chinas EV RevolutionAnders HoveSenior Research Fellow,OIES1 February 2024HTTPS:/WWW.OXFORDENERGY.ORG/ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Background and contentsUpdates on the latest EV statistics from various Chinese organizations:EV sales and marke

2、t share:China and the worldEV sales by vehicle price,type,sizeEV batteries and the growth of LFP shareEV emissionsEV charging:number of chargers,electricity consumptionCharging experienceAdditional analysis from the authors prior research,Summary of 2024 research questionsIndustry projects 40%market

3、 share in 2024;CPCA 11 million sales in 2024Linear growth in NEV sales would yield sales of 10.5 million,a 40%shareCompound growth of 33%would yield sales of 12 million,a 42%shareChina EV sales continue to growANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China domestic New Energy Vehicle(NEV

4、)sales,2017-2023,and market share2%4%5%6%16%26%33%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,0002017201820192020202120222023NEV salesNEV shareCAAM,based on domestic sales share of all vehicles,author calculationsChina remains well ahead of other major auto markets in EV

5、 penetrationChina NEV market ahead of other major regionsANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Note:China share represents all vehicles,other countries light-duty passenger vehicles only2023 NEV market shares0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%ChinaEUUKUSBEV and PHEV market share by region,2023BEVP

6、HEVSource:ACEA 2024,HeyCar 2024,Cox Auto Inc 2024,InsideEVs 2024,and author calculations6%9%13%17%21%26%32%38%44%50%56%62%68%73%79%84%87%90%6%9%12%15%18%22%26%30%35%40%45%51%57%63%68%73%76%80%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2023202820332038Source:Anders Hove,OIES,2024Though EV sales growth has slow

7、ed,the market is still rising at around 2m vehicles/yearCarrying this rate forward,China would reach 100%NEV market share around 2027Assuming vehicles last 15 years,this yields a 50%NEV share in the vehicle fleet by 2032Using government target of 45%sales in 2027 and 65%in 2030,EV stock lower by abo

8、ut 10 ppPenetration of overall vehicle fleet rising slowlyANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 NEVs as share of total China vehicle stock under S-curve adoptionGovt target case:45%share by 2027,65%by 2030High case:NEV sales riseby 2m/year until100%shareWhile license plate restriction

9、s and local subsidies still matter,CPCA predicts most growth outside leading cities in 2024NEVs perform better on customer satisfaction metrics;NIO,BMW,Mercedes,BYD,and Tesla scoring well,smaller and lower-end vehicles scoring below fossil vehiclesSeveral factors other than subsidies at workANDERS H

10、OVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 WuhanSuzhouZhengzhouChengduBeijingChongqingShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouShanghaiSource:CPCA/WAYS 2023Top NEV cities in Dec 2022(green indicates license plate limit)Customer satisfaction resultsSource:China Association of Quality,2023Fossil vehicleNEVOverallBr

11、and imageQuality/reliabilitySales/servicesatisfaction818081.981.38181.480.07832%of sales are priced at RMB 150,000 200,000(roughly US$24,000 30,000)All categories showed strong growth,led by mid-range categoriesMid-range NEVs showed strongest growthANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 202

12、4 NEV sales by price category,2021 to 2023-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000202120222023NEV sales by price category(thousands)Under 8k80-100k100-150k150-200k200-250k250-300k300-350k350-400k400-500kOver 500kSource:OIES 2024;data from CAAM 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%10

13、0%202120222023NEV sales by price category(%)Under 8k80-100k100-150k150-200k200-250k250-300k300-350k350-400k400-500kOver 500kMicro-EVs(class A00)continued to lose market share,while other categories grewStrongest growth of A-class vehicles(includes sedans,crossovers,small SUVs)Larger-size NEVs showed

14、 strongest growthANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China NEV sales by size category,2021 to 2023-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000202120222023EV sales by size category(thousands)A00A0ABCSource:OIES 2024;data from CAAM 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100

15、%202120222023EV sales by size category(%)A00A0ABCNEV market share increased by 10 percentage points for the full yearMonthly share rose a similar amount,ending above 40%in Nov-DecMonthly market share already 40%ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Monthly passenger NEV market share,2

16、021 to 20236.8%8.1%10.6%9.8%11.5%14.6%14.8%17.3%21.1%18.5%20.8%22.5%17.0%21.7%28.2%27.1%26.6%27.3%26.7%28.3%31.8%30.1%36.2%29.5%25.7%31.6%34.3%32.3%33.3%35.1%36.3%37.3%37.0%38.0%40.4%40.1%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202120222023Source:OIES 2024;CPCA monthly retai

17、l sales dataPHEV sales grew by around 80%,compared to 20%for pure EVs PHEVs grew 150%in 2022,and have grown 5x since 2021(compared to 2x for BEVs)PHEV share growing as NEVs get largerANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China NEV sales by battery category,20212023,thousands-1,000 2,0

18、00 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000202120222023BEV and PHEV share of NEV market(vehicle sales,thousands)BEVPHEV82%77%67%Source:OIES 2024,based on CAAM 2024 dataPHEV sales are capturing a larger market share mainly due to MPV and SUV categoriesHowever,SUV sales are also rising for BEV

19、 models,and BEV SUVs outnumber PHEV SUVsBEV sedans have seen the largest share decline,though absolute sales still rose 12%in 2023PHEV share growing as NEVs get largerANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China NEV sales by size category,2020 to 2023,percent64.3%56.9%47.1%38.7%0.6%1.1

20、%1.0%1.0%17.0%23.7%26.9%26.6%8.4%7.7%9.0%9.9%0.4%0.2%0.5%2.1%9.3%10.4%15.5%21.5%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2020202120222023BEV and PHEV share of NEV sales by vehicle typeBEV sedanBEV MPVBEV SUVPHEV sedanPHEV MPVPHEV SUVSource:OIES 2024;data CPCA 2024Passenger BEVs account for 75%of vehicle batter

21、y capacity consumption,buses 7%,PHEVs 17%LFP continues to expand market share in passenger car segment,reaching 2/3 shareLFP sales in vehicles grew 42%by GWh capacity,compared to 14%for NMCLFP greatly increased its market share ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China NEV battery c

22、onsumption,LFP versus NMC,2020-20232022:LFP125-135Wh/kgNMC145-160Wh/kg85%59%44%39%13%39%56%61%2%2%1%0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020202120222023Passenger carsNCMLFPOther3%0%4%3%97%97%98%99%3%3%1%1%2020202120222023BusesNCMLFPOther9%3%1%2%90%96%97%98%1%1%2%1%2020202120222023Goods trucksNCMLFPOt

23、herSource:CPCA and Kerui Consulting,Jan 2024China exported 152 GWh,of which car batteries accounted for 87%;growth 85%+CBEA expects production of 1100 GWh in 2024,an increase of roughly 25%In 2023,sodium-ion and solid-state battery output started,still under 1 MWh/yearBattery production surging,over

24、capacity loomsANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 China NEV battery production versus domestic consumption(GWh)85.483.4219.7545.9778.162.263.6154.5294.6387.7010020030040050060070080090020192020202120222023ProductionConsumptionSource:OIES 2024;ESCN,Jan 2024(2023 data);EV100,2023(hist

25、orical)CBEA expects battery cells to reach RMB 0.3/Wh in 2024Lower capacity utilization expected,even with retirement of outdated production linesIndustry optimistic on growth,willing to cut prices to retain market shareFalling battery materials costs to sustain growthANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FO

26、R ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Source:OIES 2024,CBEA 2024Comparison of key EV inputs:year-end 2022 versus 202320222023changeLithium carbonateRMB 600k/tonneRMB 100k/tonne-83%NickelUSD 30k/tonneUSD 16k/tonne-45%Synthetic graphiteRMB 51k/tonneRMB 42k/tonne-18%Natural graphiteRMB 48k/tonneRMB 33k/tonne-31%LFP el

27、ectrolyteRMB 5.3RMB 1.9-63%NMC cellRMB 0.92/WhRMB 0.515/Wh-44%LFP cellRMB 0.825/WhRMB 0.42/Wh-48%Official target for 2025 remains 20%market share for NEVs,set in 2020December 2023 Beautiful China policy included target of 45%for 2027November 2023 MIIT document suggested 65%for 2030Recent policy targ

28、eting overcapacity in NEVsAir quality targets may encourage cities to boost NEV policies,license plate lotteriesSummer ozone an increasing air quality concern;NOx and VOC emissions from vehicles are a more important driver compared to PM2.5(mainly caused by coal consumption in industry and heating s

29、ectors)China only gradually increasing national NEV goalsANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Source:CREA 2023EV adoption contributes to carbon neutrality goalsNEV push initially began as an industrial strategy,but increasingly can contribute to carbon targetsEV life-cycle emissions

30、falling dramatically due to improved energy density,lower grid carbonEV emissions are at least 40%lower than ICEV emissions in all regions of ChinaThis assumes EV charging uses the average kWh produced by the grid in these regions,and does not account for time-of-use charging characteristicsEV,ICEV

31、life-cycle well-to-wheels CO2,2015-2030Source:Tsinghua School of the Environment,2022Source:Tsinghua School of the Environment,2022CO2 of different battery types,2015-2030ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 EVCIPA estimates China has 2.7 million public chargers,of which 1.2 million

32、are DC chargersIn 2023,3.45 million chargers were sold together with the vehicle,suggesting around 40%of new EV and PHEV buyers have private chargingNumbers likely omit some private chargers installed separatelyCharging infrastructure grew at paceANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024

33、China cumulative charging installations-1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.02020202120222023Public chargersPrivate chargers sold with vehicleSource:OIES 2024,based on EVCIPA 2024Coastal provinces lead on charging infrastructureANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Source:OIES 2024,based on EVC

34、IPA data;the depiction and use of boundaries shown on the map are not warranted to be error free nor do they imply endorsement of OIESNumber of public charging points per province,in thousands,2023South China SeaIslandsSouth China SeaHeilongjiang11.2Xinjiang11.7Jiangsu217.9Zhejiang223.8Shanghai171.4

35、Fujian96.1TaiwanHainan43.6Guangxi57.0Yunnan51.4Sichuan106.6Chongqing57.4Guizhou37.3Hunan46.4Hubei139.8Jiangxi42.7Anhui121.9Henan116.1Jilin10.9Liaoning22.1Hebei69.0Beijing129.1Tianjin77.7Shandong138.1Tibet1.2Qinghai3.6Gansu14.8Inner Mongolia16.1Ningxia4.9Shaanxi63.2Shanxi46.8Guangdong563.1%N/ALess th

36、an 10,00010,000-50,00050,000-100,000More than 100,000Public chargers delivered 35 billion kWh in 2023,up 69%year-on-year,using EVCIPA dataIncluding estimates for State Grid and private charging,this could be around 50 billion kWhThis higher estimate is around 0.5%of Chinas full-year electricity cons

37、umption(=250,000 bbl/day)Assuming 20 million NEVs at year-end,December consumption represents 190 kWh per vehicle,sufficient for 1000 km suggesting large fraction of drivers use public charging regularlyPublic charging electricity use fairly modestANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024

38、 China NEV public charging electricity consumption rising quickly0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%-10 20 30 40 50 60202120222023Charging electricity consumption(bn kWh)public charging(EVCIPA)public charging(est)total charging(est)fraction of totalSource:OIES 2024;EVCIPA dataANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE F

39、OR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Previously utilization reported at around 10%Calculation from EVCIPA data suggests utilization around 5%for public chargersAverage Chinese charging post has a charge rate of 30 kW,charges 39 kWh per day,for around 77 minutes per day implies around 2-3 customer sessions per day

40、Utilization numbers are lowAverage Chinese charging post:30 kW,charges 39 kWh per day,used 77 minutes per day-20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0WanmaCelesteThousand CityHoo EnergyYiwei EnergyChina So GridShenzhen NetDake CloudNioSuper ChargeCloud ChargeStar ChargeTELDCharging post speed(kW)0200000400000600000Wanma

41、CelesteThousand CityHoo EnergyYiwei EnergyChina So GridShenzhen NetDake CloudNioSuper ChargeCloud ChargeStar ChargeTELDTotal charging posts0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%WanmaCelesteThousand CityHoo EnergyYiwei EnergyChina So GridShenzhen NetDake CloudNioSuper ChargeCloud ChargeStar ChargeTELDUtilizationSource:O

42、IES 2024,based on EVCIPA 2024Interoperability:Most EV charging uses WeChat or AliPay,does not require app download or RFID cardApps and chargers still dont communicate,broken chargers still shown as visible on appsCharging providers have inadequate incentive to maintain chargers or communicate with

43、appsBattery swap has issues with queues and is limited to certain brandsSource:Anders Hove photos,Beijing,2022At left,CAMS charger with WeChat QR code for unlocking space,paymentBelow,non-operating X-Charge station shown as available in car navigation,apps Charging payment seamless,but given low uti

44、lization,operations and maintenance not always goodANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 Chinese automakers are jumping into V2GNote:the cost of making a vehicle V2G-capable is minimal compared to the cost of the chargerPrior to 202

45、2,there were no consumer V2G chargers in the market except for Nissan Leafs under the Chademo standardV2G/V2L prior to 2022:Nissan Renault Kia MitsubishiV2G/V2L in 2023:Nissan Renault Kia Mitsubishi Ford VW/Porsche RivianV2G/V2L in 2025:Nissan Renault Kia Mitsubishi Ford GM Hyundai VW/Porsche Rivian

46、 Great Wall Motors BYD Geely FAW Xiaopeng NIO Seres Automobile GAC AonANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 V2G frequently mentioned in policy documents電力需求側管理辦法:征求意見稿 Electricity Demand-side Management Rules:Draft for Comment,National Development and Reform Commission,5 March 2023關于加

47、快推進充電基礎設施建設 更好支持新能源汽車下鄉和鄉村振興的實施意見 Opinions on Accelerating Charging Infrastructure Construction and Increasing Support for New Energy Vehicles in the Countryside and Implementing the Rural Revitalization Programme,National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration,14 May 2

48、023關于進一步構建高質量充電基礎設施體系的指導意見 Opinions on Further Building Out Charging Infrastructure System,China State Council,8 June 2023關于實施農村電網鞏固提升工程的指導意見 Opinions on Raising the Quality of Rural Electricity Grid Stability,National Development and Reform Commission,National Energy Administration,and National Rur

49、al Revitalization Department,4 July 2023加強新能源汽車與電網融合互動的實施意見 Strengthening NEV Grid Interaction,NDRC,NEA,MIIT,December 2023:policy mentions target of 5 demo cities and 50 local pilots for bidirectional chargingANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 2023 OIES study of V2G paired with rur

50、al PVV2G has potential to help absorb over-production of solar in rural areasRural vehicles well-suited for V2G given more sporadic driving patternsUnder present time-of-use prices and solar tariffs,V2G revenues insufficient to incentivize adoptionCurrent policy does not permit individuals to engage

51、 in V2G or V2H;only aggregators and pilots active https:/www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/bidirectional-charging-as-a-strategy-for-rural-pv-integration-in-china/ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 ConclusionsDespite slower growth,Chinas NEV market continues to expand,and is on trac

52、k to surpass 50%market share for new vehicles in the next 18 monthsNEV sales are expanding for almost all market segments,but the most rapid growth is among PHEVs for larger vehicles,though PHEVs are still a minority of NEV sales volumeUnder either a rapid or slower growth scenario,NEVs are set to s

53、urpass 50%of the total vehicle stock by the early 2030sBattery output is expanding faster than the NEV market,and the slowdown in NEV sales growth has resulted in lower materials prices,which could sustain lower prices for larger batteries needed for the mass market,as well as exportsCharging has ex

54、panded enormously,but utilization is low;electricity statistics suggest EV owners rely heavily on public charging,using electricity sufficient to travel 1000 km per monthChinese EV brands and policy makers are focused on smart charging as well as bidirectional charging,though efforts are limited to

55、pilotsANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 2024 EV research questionsChinas role in EV critical minerals supply chains,policies,markets,and institutions.How has China achieved dominance,what is the outlook and what does it mean for foreign companies and governments?Chinas EV innovati

56、on under Western pressure for shifting supply chains:This research examines how China became dominant in EV technology,and how current global trade and industrial policy trends might affect this innovation dominance.Continuous updates on progress towards deploying V2G:In 2023,published 2 papers on V

57、2G for integrating rural distributed solar.In 2024,follow progress of local pilots.ANDERS HOVE-OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES 2024 About the OIES China ProgrammeLaunched in 2019,the OIES China Energy Research Programme,is a centre of analytical excellence offering insights into the factors that

58、 inform Chinas energy policies and choices and their pivotal role in global energy markets.Providing academic expertise and rigor to inform business players and governments on Chinas energy policies,on clean energy advances and challenges and on their implications for markets.Independent experts wit

59、h decades of experience working in and with China,with extensive contacts in the private sector,government and NGO community in Europe,the US and China.Research Fellows include:Michal Meidan,Anders Hove,Philip Andrews-Speed,Yan Qin,David Sandalow,Kevin Tu and Brad Simmons.The China programme also dr

60、aws on the wider OIES network,offering a unique combination of deep technical energy expertise with extensive China knowledge.Anders HoveSenior Research Fellow,OIESanders.hoveoxfordenergy.orgwww.oxfordenergy.org Oxford Institute for Energy Studies The contents of this presentation are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members.