1、April 2024Humanoid robots on the rise From science fiction to reality:How to participate in the potential revolutionCover AI generated2Humanoid robots robots that resemble humans in their appearance and abilities have long appealed to our imagination.Yet recent advances in artificial intelligence an

2、d hardware technologies seem to have brought the leap from science fiction to reality within our reach,opening up new possibilities and challenges for various industries and society as a whole.Apart from their humanoid look and feel,the key difference to established industrial robots is their abilit

3、y to perform tasks similar to those of humans and,like humans,to be trained on the job.In this paper,Roland Berger examines the principal drivers of the market for humanoid robots,discusses two alternative scenarios that could unfold in the years ahead and spells out the challenges that lie ahead.Af

4、ter analyzing developments in the competitive landscape,it concludes by outlining different strategies for players keen to participate in this exciting market.Humanoid robots on the riseManagement Summary3Source:Oxford Economics(2023),desk research,Roland BergerDevelopment of working-age populations

5、(aged 15-64 years)%,2022-2050One of the main challenges humanoid robot players can address is the looming labor shortage that is causing the workforce to decrease in many regions.According to the United Nations,the 15-to-64-year age bracket is projected to decline from 65%of the global population in

6、 2020 to 58%in 2050.Some countries will experience even more drastic drops:Japans working-age population is expected to shrink by 27%,Chinas by 22%and Germanys by 6%.This demographic trend will create a significant gap between the supply of and demand for labor,especially in sectors such as manufact

7、uring,healthcare and construction that still rely heavily on manual work.Humanoid robots could potentially fill this gap by providing flexible,reliable and efficient labor that can operate in various environments and situations.They could also complement human workers by handling repetitive,dangerou

8、s or physically demanding tasks,leaving humans free to focus on more creative,complex and/or social activities.By doing so,humanoid robots could boost productivity,quality and safety,as well as reducing labor costs and companies dependency on foreign workers.In light of this trend,players in the rob

9、otics space have the benefit of powerful market pull effects as an incentive to develop and deploy their machines in response to what threatens to be a serious global labor crisis.Driver#1:The market pull effectDemographic trends and a shortage of qualified labor open the door wide to robotic labor

10、Humanoid robots on the riseLabor development ratio:100%-100%USA+4%EU-10%Mexico+8%Japan-27%China-22%Brazil-3%India+16%Europe is becoming the oldest continent,with a median age above 48 yearsChinas declining working-age population has been affected by the one-child policyGlobal workforce development#b

11、nMainly driven by migration,growing working-age populations in the USA,Mexico and India,for example,boost competitivenessIndia has become the most populous country,overtaking China with the largest working-age population20244.520505.04Driver#2:The technology push Advances in generative AI,software a

12、nd hardware are improving humanoid robots all the time Various research institutions and companies are pushing back the boundaries in artificial intelligence(AI)and hardware technologies with their innovations.As a complement to the market pull effect described above,this technology push is another

13、key driver of the development and adoption of humanoid robots.These robots rely on advanced hardware components such as skeletons,actuators,sensors and batteries to realize human-like kinematics and dynamics,perform consistent movements on all terrains,use the same tools as humans and operate to hig

14、h capacity.They also depend on semiconductors and advanced software models such as AI training,collaboration across software models and edge computing to provide low latency and high bandwidth,but also to enable humanoid robots to adapt to unpredictable situations,recognize voices and faces,interpre

15、t gestures,guess users intentions and deliver swift answers and responses.Technological progress in these areas has been remarkable in recent years especially with the emergence of generative AI and large language models,which allow humanoid robots to interact more naturally and intelligently with h

16、umans and their environment.Source:Roland BergerEvolution of roboticsHumanoid robots on the riseTimeline1980s2010s2020s+Industrial robots perform pre-defined tasks without human interactionCobots1 opened the cage to enable safe collaboration between workers and robotsHUMANOID ROBOTS Unite and advanc

17、e the abilities of stationary robots and mobile robots Leverage latest AI technology to perform all tasks and their navigation autonomouslyAGVs2:Transportation vehicles guided via magnetic tapes on the floorAMRs3:Vehicles navigating via advanced sensors and localization software autonomouslyStationa

18、ry robotsMobile robotsSignificance of Artificial Intelligence1 Collaborative robot2 Automated guided vehicle3 Autonomous mobile robot5Source:UN,World Bank,desk research,Roland BergerPotential global market development1#m;USD bn,2025-2040Jacks of all trades?Or niche players here and there?Market deve

19、lopments could go either way Humanoid robots on the riseContinuing technological uncertainties could effectively make humanoid robots an all or nothing market:In the years ahead,we will either see rapid breakthroughs birthing a gigantic market or delayed development that ultimately keeps the market

20、volume rather modest.These alternative trajectories are reflected in the two scenarios discussed below:Ambitious scenario:This market scenario for humanoid robots is based on the assumption that they will achieve universal applicability and extensive reliability by 2030.If that happens,it will be po

21、ssible to deploy them in almost any environment and situation that humans can work in.In this scenario,the global market for humanoid robots could reach an output in the region of 50 million robots,generating revenue potential of USD 1,500 billion per annum by 2050 on the back of rising demand for m

22、anual labor as the working-age population declines in many regions.They could ease global labor shortages by increasing productivity,improving output quality and collaborating seamlessly with human workers.They could also revolutionize many industries,such as manufacturing,healthcare,education and e

23、ntertainment,as well as creating new value propositions and business models.Conservative scenario:Conversely,if humanoid robots remain limited to niche applications,they will only be able to perform specific tasks in either controlled settings or hazardous environments.In this scenario,the global ma

24、rket for humanoid robots would plateau at around two million robots and only generate revenue of around USD 200 billion per annum in 2050 as technological breakthroughs fail to materialize in either hardware or software technologies.As a result,humanoid robot producers would continue to struggle wit

25、h heavy development costs,technical complexity and regulatory uncertainty.Hampered by limited interoperability and a lack of user-friendliness,they would mainly be used for research,exploration,search and rescue operations or specialized manufacturing jobs.Expected number of robots sold per year mUS

26、D bnUSD bnAmbitious scenarioRapid roll-out of universally usable humanoid robotsConservative scenarioDelayed development focused on specialized humanoid robots#m-00.010.4103050#mc.00.0159Source:Desk research,Roland BergerHumanoid robot OEMs will have to establish new sourcing networks and increase t

27、heir production capabilities.This will in turn open up possibilities for industrial companies to join the market as component suppliers or contract producers.Industrial players such as industrial robot companies can leverage their core strengths in hardware design and manufacturing to support the gr

28、owth of the humanoid robot industry.This form of market entry is especially important for motion control players,as humanoid robot companies will ultimately take over their market if the technology advances as expected.Conversely,motion control companies could miss out on a significant opportunity i

29、f they do not get involved in the humanoid robot market at an early stage.As a general rule,all industrial companies should be examining the influence and importance of humanoid robots for their business.Each company must decide how to position itself in this emerging market:It is worthwhile creatin

30、g our own humanoid robots?Should we collaborate with leading players and/or buy out pro-mising start-ups?Or should we rather become suppliers or manufacturers of humanoid robot components?On the other hand,humanoid robot OEMs may not be able to develop a trillion-dollar component industry entirely o

31、n their own even if they want to.They too must therefore consider committing to partnerships with motion control and industrial robot companies.Players in both camps need to think carefully but move quickly:Roland Berger would welcome the opportunity to talk to you about what the future of the human

32、oid robot market can look like for your company.Strategic opportunities What is the next move for industry players?Humanoid robots on the risePotential industry structureCOMPONENTS OF HUMANOID ROBOTSHUMANOID ROBOT OEMSSoftware is developed internally by robot OEMs themselves and can easily be scaled

33、 and deployedRobot OEMs will deliver hardware design but will not manufacture electronicsLeading robot OEMs will likely build or expand their own clouds to facilitate AI training,for exampleCurrently,robot OEMs build components themselves to ensure short development cyclesDuring prototyping and scal

34、e-up,robot OEMs will control final assembly to ensure high qualityTHIRD-PARTY SUPPLIERSSince software is a key success factor and differentiator,external support will be limitedHardware will be provided by the wider semiconductor and electronics industryLarge hyper-scalers will provide their service

35、s especially to smaller humanoid robot playersOEMs could outsource component production to trusted partners during scale-upOnce production is scaled,contract manufacturers could support some aspects of itSoftwaremodelsEdge computingCloud computingComponent supplyFinalassemblyInvolvement in industria

36、lization:HighMediumLowSOFTWAREHARDWAREAttractive market opportunity for industrial companies.But:need to adjust to development speed and agility of startups10Roland Berger possesses extensive experience and expertise in the fields of high-tech and capital goods,as well as a deep understanding of the

37、 market dynamics and technological trends in humanoid robotics.We can help you navigate this exciting,fast-paced industry by providing you with strategic insights,operational support and guidance on innovation.We can help you answer questions such as:How important is the humanoid robot market for my

38、 business?How can we best exploit the market potential afforded by humanoid robots?How can we partner or collaborate with leading humanoid robot players?If you are interested in learning more about our study on humanoid robots,or if you want to discuss how we can help you with your specific challeng

39、es and opportunities,please contact us.We look forward to hearing from you!We are there to support you!Humanoid robots on the riseThomas KirschsteinPartner Sven SiepenSenior Partner Ralph MairPartner Philipp SchmittPartner Christoph BlumSenior Consultant Jiachen SongSenior Consultant AuthorsContribu

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