1、 AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 0 Industry Breakdown:Humanoid Robotics To Humanoid,Or Not To Humanoid?RESEARCH PAPER NOVEMBER 2024 AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 1 INTRODUCTION This report explores the current state and future potential of humanoid robots,focusing on the key innovators and t

2、echnologies driving the industry forward.We aim to highlight the advancements and real-world applications of humanoid robots across various sectors.OBJECTIVE The objective of this research is to assess the leading companies in humanoid robotics,analyze their progress,and evaluate their impact on ind

3、ustries.METHODOLOGY Our research was conducted through a detailed analysis of company reports,industry data,and expert insights.Sources include online coverage,Pitchbook and Crunchbase.AUTHORS Etienne SegalEtienne Segal Research Fellow Will SummerlinWill Summerlin Founder&Managing Partner Maximilian

4、Maximilian FriedrichFriedrich Founder&Managing Partner AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 2 Content I.Background Page 3-6 II.The Need Page 7-9 III.The Technology Page 10-12 IV.The Opportunity Page 13-19 V.The Innovators Page 20-30 AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 3 I.Background What comes to mind

5、when you think of embodied AI?For centuries,robotics has occupied the realm of science fiction and boundless human imagination.Visionaries like Leonardo da Vinci and Ismail al-Jazari crafted early concepts of mechanical beings,while Jacques de Vaucanson introduced some of the first automatons.In the

6、 past century,figures like Isaac Asimov with“I,Robot”and James Camerons“The Terminator”shaped our vision of what robots might become in the distant future.Today,however,that distant future is drawing nearer,driven by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence,falling manufacturing costs,and labor

7、 shortages across various industries.These factors have not only accelerated the development of humanoid robots but also brought us to the brink of a robotics revolution.This report will explore the implications of this revolution-how it will shape businesses,the economy,and even household life.The

8、focus is on the US market,observing the companies at the forefront of humanoid robotics development and adoption.“I believe Optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined at Tesla,because a sentient humanoid robot able to navigate reality and perform tasks on request has no meaningful l

9、imit to the size of the economy.”Elon Musk,on the potential of Teslas Optimus humanoid robot,Tesla Earnings Call,April 2024 “Bipedal robots could radically transform every sectorfrom housekeeping to eldercareand free humans from the most undesirable jobs.In 25 years,there could be a billion robots p

10、erforming a wide range of tasks,ultimately reshaping GDP,productivity,and human happiness.”Vinod Khosla,AI:Dystopia or Utopia?,September 2024 AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 4 IntroductionIntroduction t to o thethe InnovatorsInnovators We have conducted in-depth research on some of the most promi

11、sing startups and established companies developing humanoids.The companies featured in this report represent a diverse range of progress stages,team sizes,and levels of investor backing.Despite these differences,one thing remains clear:the humanoid robotics industry is still in its early stages,maki

12、ng it difficult to definitively predict which players will come out on top.At present,we believe industrial applications of humanoid robots will far outpace any consumer-facing products,particularly in sectors dealing with undesirable or hazardous tasks.These use cases include industries like manufa

13、cturing,logistics,and waste management,where robots can reduce the risk of human injury and increase operational efficiency.Given this context,our spotlight is on the humanoids gaining the most traction with industrial partners,tackling labor shortages and dangerous environments.While Large Language

14、 Models(LLMs)like OpenAIs GPT-4 have dominated We believe that in the next five to fifteen years,general-purpose humanoid robots will likely become integral to both industrial operations and everyday life.These robots,designed to perform tasks ranging from factory assembly to performing household ch

15、ores,are no longer a distant dream.Instead,they are becoming a reality due to breakthroughs in technology and a surge of investment into developers.With robots filling the gaps created by labor shortages and performing tasks that range from hazardous to mundane,we are on the brink of a significant t

16、ransformation.Source:Dr.Alan D.Thompson AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 5 Top Investors in Humanoid Robotics Companies by Deal Top Investors in Humanoid Robotics Companies by Deal Count,2019Count,2019 20242024 Investor HQ AUM Type Humanoid Investments Total Investments Plug and Play Tech Center U

17、S$500mm Accelerator 6 7,130 Khosla Ventures US$15bn VC 5 1,382 Calibrate Ventures US$195mm VC 4 38 Frees Fund CN$500mm VC 4 353 1984 Ventures US$150mm VC 3 123 Evok Innovations CA$350mm VC 3 45 Innoangel Fund CN$565mm VC 3 397 Intel Capital US$13.3bn Corporate VC 3 2,048 Samsung NEXT US$2.5bn Corpor

18、ate VC 3 405 Amazon US$1bn Corporate VC 2 314$0$400$800$1,200$1,6002018201920202021202220232024Capital Invested in$mmCapital Invested in Humanoid Robotics Capital Invested in Humanoid Robotics Companies,2018Companies,2018-20242024Early stage VCLater stage VCGrantsM&AIPO/PIPESource:Autopilot Analysis

19、 of PitchBook Data,October 2024.Source:Autopilot Analysis of PitchBook Data,October 2024.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 6 Humanoid Robots Humanoid Robots A A S Short History and Milestones hort History and Milestones November 2000November 2000 Honda ASIMO is officially launched,capable of walkin

20、g,climbing stairs,and performing simple tasks March 2004March 2004 The first DARPA Grand Challenge to develop semi-autonomous robots is held in the Mojave desert,California February 2011February 2011 Robonaut 2,developed by NASA and GM,is sent to the International Space Station to assist astronauts

21、June 2021June 2021 Hyundai Motor Group acquires an 80%stake in Boston Dynamics for$880 million OctoberOctober 20222022 Tesla unveils the first version of its humanoid robot Optimus July 2023July 2023 Google DeepMind introduces RT-2-a vision language model(VLM)translating vision and language into act

22、ion March 2024March 2024 NVIDIA launches Project GR00T,a platform for AI research to support robotics June 2024June 2024 In its first commercial deployment,Agility announces its launch of 5 Digit humanoids at a GXO facility near Atlanta,Georgia August 2024August 2024 OpenAI-backed 1X Robotics announ

23、ces it is deploying its Neo humanoid into a select number of homes,planning to launch full-scale production in 2025 October 2024October 2024 Tesla unveils the updated version of its humanoid robot Optimus and suggests that its price point will land around$20,000-$30,000 at scale AUTOPILOT 2024 All R

24、ights Reserved 7 II.The Need A.A.Labor ShortagesLabor Shortages As economies recover from the disruptions caused by COVID-19,the dynamics of labor markets have significantly shifted.The 2010s were marked by an excess of available workers and insufficient jobs,while the 2020s are witnessing the oppos

25、ite:a shortage of workers to meet growing demand.This trend is expected to persist,reshaping industries and driving the adoption of automated and robotic solutions.According to a McKinsey Global Institute report,the labor shortages that first emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic are not a tempor

26、ary phenomenon.Rather,they reflect long-term demographic shifts.The aging Baby Boomer generation is exiting the workforce,while fewer younger workers are entering,creating a gap that automation and robotics are increasingly being called upon to fill.In the US,the unemployment rate remains historical

27、ly low,hovering around 4%as of mid-2024,even after labor markets began to ease from pandemic-induced pressures.Moreover,in industries like manufacturing,the shortage is expected to worsen.Deloitte predicts that the US manufacturing industry will face 2.1 million vacancies by 2030,up from 505,000 vac

28、ancies in 2024.Several factors contribute to this alarming trend:An aging workforce,particularly in skilled manufacturing roles A persistent skills gap,where available workers lack the expertise required to operate increasingly advanced machinery A preference among workers for careers in fields such

29、 as healthcare and technology Despite being one of the most automated sectors,human workers are still essential for critical tasks such as machine oversight,quality control,maintenance,and robotic system customization.As companies struggle to fill these roles,many are viewing robotics and automation

30、 as a solution to mitigate the labor shortage.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 8 B.B.L Labor abor HazardsHazards Across several industries,particularly those with high fatality rates and long-term health risks,the need for automation has become increasingly apparent.Sectors like construction,disas

31、ter rescue,mining,nuclear reactor maintenance,chemical manufacturing,and waste management represent some of the most dangerous work environments,with high fatality rates and long-term health risks.These sectors have long been a subject of ethical debate,as the benefits of well-paid jobs are weighed

32、against the inherent risks.Robots present a compelling solution for addressing these hazards.By automating tasks that are physically dangerous or expose workers to toxic materials,robotics can significantly reduce the need for human involvement in high-risk environments:Coal mining and logging,both

33、of which are among the deadliest industries,could benefit from robots performing tasks such as cutting,transporting,and inspecting hazardous areas.Nuclear reactor maintenance and chemical manufacturing often involve dealing with highly radioactive or toxic substances.Robots equipped with specialized

34、 tools and sensors can take over tasks that would otherwise expose workers to severe health risks.Disaster rescue missions,where human lives are often on the line,can be transformed with humanoid robots that can navigate debris,access dangerous environments,and assist in search-and-rescue operations

35、 without risking human lives.C.C.Scientific ProScientific Progressgress Humanoid robots are at the forefront of scientific progress and innovation,driven by their ability to overcome physical limitations that could constrain human researchers.From the extreme depths of the ocean to the frigid poles

36、and volatile volcanic zones,many parts of our planet have remained unexplored.The ocean,for example,covers 70%of Earths surface,however we have only explored 5%of it.Robots could be able to operate in harsh environments that would be impossible for humans.Moreover,as space exploration moves from sci

37、ence fiction to reality,humanoid robots will play a vital role in the emerging space economy.With plans to further explore the Moon and Mars,the need for robotic assistance in space missions is growing.Moreover,we could potentially send space missions out on larger distances,without having the need

38、to return the spacecraft back to Earth,given that no humans are onboard.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 9 To Humanoid or Not to Humanoid?To Humanoid or Not to Humanoid?The idea of designing robots to resemble humans has been widely debated,with many advocates suggesting that the world is inherent

39、ly structured for human interaction.The built environment,from door handles to stairs,was crafted with human anatomy in mind.Therefore,the most logical solution for creating robots that can easily integrate into these spaces would be to model them after human physiology.Proponents of humanoid robots

40、 argue that such designs can perform tasks seamlessly across various industries,from manufacturing to healthcare,because they are aligned with how our world functions.On the other hand,critics of the humanoid approach suggest that not all tasks require a human-like robot to perform effectively.In ma

41、ny cases,robots designed for specific functions,such as factory automation or medical procedures,could be more efficient.The question then becomes one of utility against versatility:Should we build a wide array of robots,each with a unique design tailored to its specific task?Or should we focus on b

42、uilding a few general-purpose humanoid robots that can perform a multitude of functions?This debate will shape the future of robotics and influence which approach proves more scalable,cost-effective,and impactful in the long run.“If wIf we want robots to operate in our environments as seamlessly as

43、possible,e want robots to operate in our environments as seamlessly as possible,perhaps those robots should be modeled after people.”perhaps those robots should be modeled after people.”Bill Gates,GatesNotes,January 2024 AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 10 III.The Technology This section provides

44、an overview of the critical components that make up todays cutting-edge humanoid robots,along with suppliers that are shaping this rapidly evolving industry.Each element,from mechanical hardware to AI-driven control systems,plays a vital role in bringing humanoids to life.According to Goldman Sachs

45、Equity Research in January 2024,the average cost of building a humanoid robot in 2023 was estimated to be$150,000.However,recent advancements and increased production have driven costs down,with current estimates ranging between$30,000 at the low to$120,000 on the high end.These decreasing costs,com

46、bined with improvements in functionality and scalability,are paving the way for more widespread deployment of humanoid robots across various industries.CategoryCategory Major SuppliersMajor Suppliers ComponentComponent DescriptionDescription Amount of Amount of ComponentsComponents Approx.%of Approx

47、.%of Full CostFull Cost Mechanical Hardware Maxon Motors,Harmonic Drive,FESTO,Nabtesco,Bosch Skeleton Joints Motors and Actuators Gears and Linkages Feet and Hands Lightweight structure mimicking human skeleton Movable joints for flexible movement of limbs Muscle-like components for motion control T

48、ransfer and fine-tune mechanical movement Structures for foot stability and hand dexterity 1 skeleton 20-40 joints 50-100 actuators 100+gears 2 feet,2 hands 5%10%20%5%5%Sensors and Perception Systems Velodyne,Sony,Bosch,FLIR Systems,Intel Vision Systems LIDAR/Radar Sensors Proximity/Touch Sensors Gy

49、roscopes and Accelerometers Microphones Cameras for visual perception and object recognition Sensors for special awareness and orientation Detection of touch,pressure,or proximity to objects Measure balance and movement for stabilization Sound capture for voice command,environmental sound 2-4 camera

50、s 1-2 sensors 10-20 sensors 3-5 gyros 1-2 microphones 10%5%2%3%1%Control Systems NVIDIA,Siemens,Texas Instruments,Rockwell Automation,AMD,Microcontrollers and Processors Motion Planning Algorithms Feedback Loops Primary CPU and additional units for controlling functions Software for planning and gen

51、erating movements Control loops to adjust actions based on sensor feedback 1-10 processors Software Software 10%5%5%Artificial Intelligence FieldAI,SkidAI,Physical Intelligence,Google,NVIDIA Machine Learning Models Natural Language Processing Object Recognition Behavioral Control Systems AI algorith

52、ms for learning and improving performance Models for understanding,generating human language Models to identify objects in the environment Models for decision making and interaction planning Software Software Software Software 5%5%3%5%Interaction Systems Nuance Communications,Google Cloud,AWS,Intel

53、Speech Recognition Speech Synthesis Gesture Recognition Systems for understanding human speech commands Software for generating robot speech for communication Vision systems for understanding human gestures 1-2 systems 1 system 1 system 3%1%2%Power Components Samsung,Panasonic,Vicor,LG,Texas Instrum

54、ents Batteries Power Distribution Systems Power source for robot operations System for distribution energy efficiently to components 1-2 batteries 1 power system 20%5%Source:Autopilot Analysis.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 11 Foundation Models and Infrastructure Foundation Models and Infrastruc

55、ture AdvancementsAdvancements Building on the critical components that form humanoid robots,recent advances in artificial intelligence and infrastructure are reshaping how these systems function and learn.Foundation models,particularly in AI,are pushing the boundaries of what humanoid robots can ach

56、ieve by enabling them to navigate and interact with their environment in more intelligent and adaptable ways.NVIDIAs Project GR00TNVIDIAs Project GR00T,launched in April 2024,aims at developing general-purpose foundation models for humanoid robots.These models can take multimodal instructions and pa

57、st interactions as input,generating reactive robot actions.By leveraging NVIDIAs full three-computer robotics stack-DGX for training,Isaac Lab for reinforcement learning,and Jetson Thor for compute,Project GR00T equips humanoids with advanced reasoning,planning,and motion capabilities.The system lea

58、rns through a mix of multimodal data sources,including video and imitation learning,to acquire new skills,accelerating robot development and adaptability.Googles RTGoogles RT-2 2,developed by DeepMind in 2023,represents a major breakthrough in robotic intelligence by enabling robots to learn and ada

59、pt much like humans.The model,which integrates vision,language,and action,allows robots to perform tasks by learning general concepts from web data,rather than relying on laborious,task-specific training.RT-2 builds on its predecessor,RT-1,but nearly doubles its performance in new,untrained scenario

60、s,demonstrating a 62%success rate.By transferring learned knowledge into robotic actions,it simplifies robotic operations,marking a significant step towards more autonomous,general-purpose robots that can excel in variable environments.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 12 Field AIField AI is revolu

61、tionizing industries with its Field Foundation Models,enabling robots to autonomously navigate unstructured environments across sectors like construction,oil&gas,and agriculture.FFMs allow seamless operation with diverse sensors and vehicle types,creating adaptable systems for unpredictable conditio

62、ns.Led by a team from NASA,DARPA,and Google DeepMind,Field AIs proven technology powers autonomous operations in real-world settings.Bill Gates has recognized the companys pioneering role in robotic intelligence,noting its transformative potential for industrial automation.Covariant AICovariant AI,a

63、n OpenAI robotics spinoff founded in 2017,has been at the forefront of AI-powered robotics with its groundbreaking Robotics Foundation Models(RFMs).These models,developed through years of robotic episodes and millions of data points,form the backbone of the Covariant Brain,enabling robots to perform

64、 human-level tasks with remarkable precision.Covariants solutions have been widely adopted in industries such as warehousing,handling millions of unique items.Recently,Covariant partnered with Amazon,granting a non-exclusive license to its RFMs.Skild AISkild AI,founded in 2023 by AI pioneers Deepak

65、Pathak and Abhinav Gupta,is developing a groundbreaking foundation model for robotics called the Skild Brain.With over 25 years of combined experience in robotics and AI,the founders aim to create embodied intelligence that enables robots to learn and react in real-world environments.Skild AIs gener

66、al-purpose model supports various robot embodiments,from quadrupeds for security to mobile manipulators.Investors Lightspeed,SoftBank,and Bezos Expeditions have bet on Skild AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 13 IV.The Opportunity Main Stakeholders in the Humanoid Robotics RevolutionMain Stakeholder

67、s in the Humanoid Robotics Revolution GroupGroup RoleRole ExamplesExamples Developers The driving force behind technological breakthroughs in humanoid robots.These developers are focused on creating humanoid robots capable of performing tasks ranging from industrial labor to assisting in healthcare.

68、Developers are often collaborating with other sectors,such as automotive,logistics,and healthcare,to create real-world applications for these robots.Covered at bottom of report Customers The primary customers of humanoid robots are industrial and commercial sectors,particularly in industries facing

69、severe labor shortages or hazardous work conditions.Companies in manufacturing,logistics and warehousing are some of the earliest adopters of humanoid robots.Sectors like healthcare and eldercare are also emerging as significant potential customers,where humanoid robots can assist with repetitive ta

70、sks,heavy lifting,and patient care.Amazon,Tesla,GXO Logistics,DHL,BMW,Mercedes-Benz,Hyundai,Everon,Nestle,Chevron,Magna,Zeekr,Dongfeng Component Suppliers Hardware providers supply the essential components that make humanoid robots functional.They provide motors,actuators,and precision gears,which a

71、re critical for robot mobility and dexterity.Processors and GPUs enable real-time processing and AI-driven decision-making.Software providers supply systems that allow humanoid robots to learn from their environment,understand language,and interact with humans.Cloud-based platforms are used for data

72、 processing and AI model training,which allow robots to operate autonomously and respond.Maxon Motors,Harmonic Drive,Bosch,Intel,Nabtesco,Sony,Panasonic,NVIDIA,Google,OpenAI,Microsoft Azure,AWS Investors Venture capital and private equity is pouring billions into the humanoid robotics space.These in

73、vestors are backing both established players and early-stage startups,hoping to capitalize on the rapid growth of automation and robotics in a range of industries.Corporate VC also looks for opportunities to participate and bring operational improvements to its beneficiaries.Khosla Ventures,Amazon,N

74、VIDIA,Intel Capital,Samsung NEXT,OpenAI Startup Fund Researchers Academic and corporate research plays a vital role in the development of humanoid robotics.MIT,Stanford,Carnegie Mellon,Google,NVIDIA AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 14 PartnershipsPartnerships Humanoid robots are increasingly being

75、 tested and piloted across a wide range of industries,signaling their rising role in addressing labor shortages and improving efficiency.Amazon and GXO Logistics have deployed Agility Robotics Digit,using it to automate tasks in warehouses,such as moving and sorting packages.BMW and Mercedes-Benz ha

76、ve similarly integrated humanoid robots into their manufacturing operations to reduce the reliance on human workers for repetitive or hazardous tasks.In addition to industrial settings,Norway-based 1X has announced that it is testing humanoid prototypes in select households for consumer applications

77、,exploring use cases such as home assistance and caregiving.These early-stage pilots indicate the potential for humanoid robots to eventually transition to consumer-facing roles in the near future.Pricing and Demand Drivers Pricing and Demand Drivers At present,many humanoid robotics developers are

78、reluctant to publicly disclose their pricing models.However,from the few companies that have shared their pricing details,we estimate that humanoid robots are priced between$16,000 and$150,000+,depending on the complexity,features,and intended use.For instance,Teslas Optimus is expected to cost arou

79、nd$20k,while Unitrees entry level G1 is advertised for$16k.On the high-end of the spectrum,Boston Dynamics Atlas is estimated to cost over$100k.In addition to the upfront cost,labor-as-a-service models have emerged as a viable option for enterprises seeking to lease humanoid robots instead of purcha

80、sing them.Companies like Agility Robotics and Sanctuary AI have introduced this approach,offering robots at rates as low as$30 per hour.This model is attractive for companies looking to address labor shortages without the capital expense of outright ownership.The primary drivers of demand for humano

81、id robots will be their performance relative to human labor,particularly in terms of speed,precision,and consistency-and the cost of maintenance and operational efficiency.As production technologies improve and scale,it is expected that the cost of humanoid robots will decrease,making them more acce

82、ssible to a broader range of industries.Additionally,advances in AI capabilities and robotic dexterity will continue to fuel demand,as robots become more capable of performing complex tasks with minimal human oversight.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 15 Labor Market Equation Labor Market Equation

83、 While the consumer market for humanoid robotics holds great potential,we believe it remains years away from mass adoption.For now,industrial applications represent the most immediate and impactful opportunity,particularly in sectors grappling with labor shortages and hazardous work environments.As

84、such,we have excluded the consumer segment from our market size calculations,focusing instead on industries where humanoid robots could make the biggest near-term difference.From our needs assessment,we have identified several industries as the most likely adopters of humanoid robots over the next d

85、ecade.These include manufacturing,warehousing,nursing,waste management,and mining-industries heavily reliant on non-supervisory,repetitive,and physically demanding labor.Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS),we estimated the size of the labor market within these sectors,targeting jobs

86、that could realistically be replaced or augmented by humanoid robots.RetailRetail ManufacturingManufacturing WarehousingWarehousing Waste Waste ManagementManagement MiningMining Employees,NonEmployees,Non-Supervisory RolesSupervisory Roles (US)(US)13.4 million13.4 million 9 million9 million 1.5 1.5

87、millionmillion 0.42 million0.42 million 0.37 million0.37 million CombinedCombined NonNon-Supervisory Employees Supervisory Employees in Relevant Industriesin Relevant Industries 24.8 million24.8 million Weekly Average Hours 30.3 40.6 39.6 41.8 46.6 Annual Average Hours 1,576 2,111 2,059 2,173 2,434

88、Average Hourly Wage(USD)$20.95$27.94$24.03$31.83$34.92 Average Annual Wages,Non-Supervisory Roles$33,009$58,987$49,483$69,186$84,618 Total Wages,NonTotal Wages,Non-Supervisory RolesSupervisory Roles$443 million$443 million$533 million$533 million$77 million$77 million$31 million$31 million$32 millio

89、n$32 million Combined Wages in Combined Wages in Relevant IndustriesRelevant Industries$1,116$1,116 billionbillion Source:Autopilot Analysis of BLS data.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 16 Relevant Target Relevant Target Industries Industries forfor Humanoid Robot AutomationHumanoid Robot Automati

90、on RetailRetail Retail boasts the largest non-supervisory workforce,with over 13 million employees.This makes it a prime candidate for robotic assistance,where humanoids could assist with stocking shelves,managing inventory,and engaging in CS.ManufacturingManufacturing Manufacturing is close behind,

91、employing 9 million workers.With its heavy reliance on repetitive tasks,humanoid robots are perfectly positioned to augment the workforce,boosting efficiency and reducing manual strain.WarehousingWarehousing Warehousing is another sector ripe for transformation,where robots can take on physically de

92、manding tasks like lifting and moving goods,as the demand for faster fulfillment surges.Mining/Waste ManagementMining/Waste Management Mining and waste management,with their high-risk environments,stand to benefit from robots stepping in,ensuring human safety in hazardous roles.Modeling Modeling Ass

93、umptionsAssumptions 1.1.Rate of Substitution:Rate of Substitution:By 2035,we assume that over 20%of non-supervisory,repetitive roles in the selected industries will be replaced by humanoid robots.2.2.Efficiency Ratio:Efficiency Ratio:Initially,humanoid robots may not match human efficiency.We assume

94、 a starting efficiency ratio of 0.1 robot hours to human hours in 2024,gradually improving to 1.27 by 2035,meaning robots will eventually surpass humans in productivity.3.3.Useful Life:Useful Life:We assume a 2-year useful life for humanoid robots before major maintenance or replacement is required.

95、4.4.Selling Price:Selling Price:The average selling price of humanoid robots is expected to drop from$70k in 2025 to$20k by 2035 as manufacturing costs decrease and production scales.5.5.Workload:Workload:We assume robots will be able to work longer hours than humans,starting at 51.5 hours per week

96、in 2025 and increasing to 69 hours per week by 2035,contributing to overall efficiency gains.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 17 Autopilot Humanoid RobotAutopilot Humanoid Robot Market Forecast 2025Market Forecast 2025-20352035 20242024 20252025 20262026 20272027 20282028 20292029 20302030 2031203

97、1 20322032 20332033 20342034 20352035 Total Required Workers(mm)24.8 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.3 31 31.8 32.6 Assumed Economy Growth Rate%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Total Human Workers(%)100.00%100.00%99.99%99.97%99.91%99.64%98.56%96.40%92.80%89.20%85.96%81.75%Total

98、Human Workers(mm)24.8 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.7 Total Robot Total Robot Workers(%)Workers(%)0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.09%0.09%0.36%0.36%1.44%1.44%3.60%3.60%7.20%7.20%10.80%10.80%14.04%14.04%18.25%18.25%Human Weekly Working Hours 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

99、 35 35 35 Hourly Wage($)$24.09$24.67$25.16$25.66$26.18$26.70$27.24$27.78$28.34$28.90$29.48$30.07 Inflation Rate(%)2.4%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%Human Worker Annual Salary($)$43,945$45,000$45,900$46,818$47,754$48,709$49,684$50,577$51,691$52,725$53,779$54,855 Manufacturing Cost(Robot)$50,000$42,500$36,125

100、$30,706$26,100$22,185$18,857$16,029$13,625$13,625$13,625$13,625 Selling Price(Robot)$75,000$63,750$54,188$46,059$39,150$33,278$28,286$24,043$20,437$20,437$20,437$20,437 Robot Weekly Robot Weekly Working HoursWorking Hours 5050 51.551.5 5353 54.654.6 56.356.3 5858 59.759.7 61.561.5 63.363.3 65.265.2

101、67.267.2 69.269.2 Robot Annual Working Hours 2,600 2,678 2,758 2,841 2,926 3,014 3,105 3,198 3,294 3,392 3,494 3,599 RobotRobot-toto-Human Human Efficiency RatioEfficiency Ratio 0.100.10 0.150.15 0.230.23 0.340.34 0.510.51 0.660.66 0.790.79 0.870.87 0.960.96 1.051.05 1.161.16 1.271.27 Robot 2 Year O

102、utput($)$12,572$19,818$31,232$49,218$77,563$105,934$133,553$154,342$178,367$206,132$238,218$275,299 Payback PeriodPayback Period 17.9617.96 9.659.65 5.215.21 2.812.81 1.511.51 0.940.94 0.640.64 0.470.47 0.340.34 0.30.3 0.260.26 0.220.22 Source:Autopilot Analysis.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 18

103、 As robot efficiency improves and costs decrease,humanoid robots are expected to replace a significant portion of the labor force in repetitive,non-supervisory roles.This follows Wrights Wrights LawLaw,which states that for every cumulative doubling of units produced,costs will fall by a consistent

104、percentage due to scale efficiencies.A classic example is Fords Model T as production scaled,costs dropped,enabling wider adoption.Similarly,the manufacturing cost of humanoid robots is projected to decrease as cumulative production increases,making robots more affordable over time.The payback perio

105、d for robots,which is almost 18 years in 2024,is expected to shrink to less than 1 year by 2035.The broader adoption of humanoids will allow industries reliant on physical labor to benefit from automation on a large scale,mirroring the impact of mass-produced automobiles on society.Market Size Proje

106、ctionMarket Size Projection Based on our projections,the humanoid robotics market is expected to reach a total market size of approximately$121 billion by 2035$121 billion by 2035,driven by the increasing number of robot workers in industrial sectors.Starting from an estimated market size of$81MM in

107、 2025$81MM in 2025,the market is set to grow at a CAGR of approximately 108%over the 10-year period from 2025 to 2035.$81$81$212$212$370$370$967$967$3,368$3,368$11,739$11,739$25,569$25,569$44,554$44,554$68,501$68,501$91,278$91,278$121,628$121,628$0$25,000$50,000$75,000$100,000$125,000$150,0002025202

108、6202720282029203020312032203320342035Market Size in$mmHumanoid Robotics Market Sizing,2025Humanoid Robotics Market Sizing,2025-20352035Source:Autopilot Analysis.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 19 Adoption ChallengesAdoption Challenges We have identified several key risks that could hinder the ado

109、ption of humanoid robots over the short-and medium-term.RiskRisk DescriptionDescription High CostsHigh Costs Humanoid robots are currently expensive,with prices around$72,750 in 2025,limiting accessibility.Although costs are expected to decrease,upfront investment and ongoing maintenance will remain

110、 barriers for smaller businesses.Technological Technological LimitationsLimitations Current robots still face challenges with dexterity,autonomy,and decision-making,making them less effective for complex tasks.Dependence on cloud-based AI also limits functionality in environments with poor connectiv

111、ity.Workplace Workplace IntegrationsIntegrations Integrating robots into workplaces requires adjustments in workflow and infrastructure.Moreover,employee resistance and concerns about job displacement could slow adoption.Labor Union Labor Union ResistanceResistance Labor unions may resist the widesp

112、read adoption of humanoid robots due to fears of job displacement.As more industries adopt automation,unions could pose significant hurdles,advocating for human jobs and limiting robotic integration.Existential Existential RisksRisks The rise of autonomous robots introduces existential risks,with co

113、ncerns around safety,control,and unintended consequences.Unregulated development and deployment of these technologies may result in long-term risks for humanity if not carefully monitored and managed.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 20 V.The Innovators As humanoid robots move from the realm of sci

114、ence fiction to real-world applications,a new generation of innovative companies is leading the charge.These organizations are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence,advanced robotics,and human-centered design to solve some of the worlds most pressing labor challengesfrom addressing workfor

115、ce shortages to automating dangerous or repetitive tasks.We spotlight the Top 10 companies at the forefront of the humanoid robotics revolution.These pioneers are not only pushing technological boundaries but are also shaping the future of industries such as logistics,manufacturing,healthcare,and be

116、yond.Each company brings a unique approach to developing humanoid robots,and together,they are driving the next wave of industrial automation and AI integration.Find our full humanoid robot company list on Airtable by clicking here.AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 21 1X Technologies1X Technologies

117、 Round Date Amount Series B Jan 2024$100mm Series A2 Jan 2023$23.5mm Series A May 2021$10mm Corporate Apr 2021$2.9mm FoundedFounded:2014 EmployeesEmployees:265 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$140 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$210 million Norwegian humanoid robots backed by OpenAINorwegian huma

118、noid robots backed by OpenAI WebsiteWebsite:1x.tech HQHQ:Oslo,Norway;Sunnyvale,CA 1X Technologies,a Norwegian robotics company backed by OpenAI and EQT Ventures,continues to make waves in the humanoid robotics space.Recently,the company revealed Neo,a humanoid robot designed for home use,capable of

119、assisting with everyday tasks and supporting people with limited mobility.In a teaser video,Neo is shown in a casual interaction,emphasizing 1Xs vision for close,human-friendly robots.Additionally,1X has secured one of the largest humanoid robot contracts to date,providing 140 service robots to Ever

120、on,a US-based commercial security and safety provider,marking a major step in scaling humanoid robots for real-world applications.Select Investors:Select Investors:OpenAI,EQT Ventures,Tiger Global,Samsung NEXT Select Customers:Select Customers:Everon,NVIDIA Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership a

121、nd Board:Leadership and Board:Bernt Brnich-CEO and Co-Founder Stein Maurice-COO Nguyen Phuong-CSO and Co-Founder Jrgen Sundell-Machinist and Co-Founder AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 22 Agility RoboticsAgility Robotics Round Date Amount Series B Apr 2022$150mm Series A2 Oct 2020$20mm Series A Fe

122、b 2018$8mm Grant N/A$1mm FoundedFounded:2015 EmployeesEmployees:225 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$178 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$550 million Amazons goAmazons go-to robot for factory logisticsto robot for factory logistics WebsiteWebsite: HQHQ:Salem,OR Agility Robotics,founded in 2015 as

123、a spinoff from Oregon State University,is a leader in humanoid robotics.Its flagship product,Digit,is built for warehouse automation and repetitive tasks.GXO Logistics recently deployed Digit in a multi-year deal,marking the first commercial humanoid deployment under a robotics-as-a-service(RaaS)mod

124、el,with a pricing rate of$30 per hour,offering a return on investment(ROI)within two years.Agility Robotics plans to produce 10,000 robots annually at its Salem,Oregon facility,addressing labor shortages.The company is led by CEO Peggy Johnson,an ex-Microsoft seasoned technology executive.Select Inv

125、estors:Select Investors:Amazon,DCVC,Sony,DARPA,Playground Global Select Customers:Select Customers:Amazon,GXO Logistics,Ford Motors Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Jonathan Hurst Ph.D-CRO and Co-Founder Peggy Johnson-CEO Pras Velagapudi Ph.D-CTO Aindrea Campbe

126、ll Ph.D-COO AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 23 ApptronikApptronik Round Date Amount Series A Apr 2024$37mm Seed Feb 2023$14mm Seed May 2022$14mm Grant Jan 2017$5mm FoundedFounded:2016 EmployeesEmployees:150 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$65 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$250 million Apptron

127、ik,a 2016 spinout from the University of Texas at Austin,is known for developing versatile humanoid robots.Its flagship robot,Apollo,is designed to collaborate with humans in logistics,manufacturing,and patient care.Recently,Mercedes-Benz and GXO Logistics began piloting Apollo in their operations t

128、o automate labor-intensive tasks.Built with modular components and NASA expertise,Apollo features linear actuators mimicking human muscle mechanics,swappable batteries,and a force-control architecture for safe human interaction.With backing from NASAs SBIR program,Apptronik aims to scale humanoid ro

129、botics for both Earth-based applications and potential future space missions.Select Investors:Select Investors:Plug&Play,Scrum VC,US DoD,National Science Fdtn Select Customers:Select Customers:NASA,Mercedes-Benz,GXO Logistics Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Je

130、ffrey Cardenas-CEO and Co-Founder Nicholas Paine Ph.D-CTO and Co-Founder Kay Sheils-CFO Barry Phillips-CCO Amazons goAmazons go-to robot for factory to robot for factory logisticslogistics WebsiteWebsite: HQHQ:Austin,TX AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 24 Boston DynamicsBoston Dynamics Round Date

131、Amount M&A Jun 2021$880mm Debt Feb 2019$37mm M&A Jun 2017$100mm M&A Dec 2023 FoundedFounded:1992 EmployeesEmployees:1,100 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$880 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$1.1 billion Boston Dynamics,founded in 1992 as a spin-off from MIT,is renowned for its highly dynamic robo

132、ts,including Spot,BigDog,and the humanoid Atlas.Acquired by Hyundai in 2021,the company has revolutionized robotics with legged machines capable of performing complex tasks like running,leaping,and even dancing.While its robots have gained viral attention for their agility,Boston Dynamics is now foc

133、used on advancing their cognitive abilities through the Boston Dynamics AI Institute.The company aims to commercialize these robots for industries such as logistics and manufacturing.Companies like Otto Group,BMW,Chevron,and Novo Nordisk use Spot,for tasks such as inspection,maintenance,and safety.S

134、elect Investors:Select Investors:Hyundai Motors,SoftBank (former),Alphabet(former)Select Customers:Select Customers:Hyundai,DHL,Chevron,Nestle,AB InBev,Novo Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Marc Raibert Ph.D-Chairman and Founder Robert Playter-CEO Amanda McMast

135、er-CFO Aaron Saunders-CTO Robotics OG under HyundaiRobotics OG under Hyundai WebsiteWebsite: HQHQ:Waltham,MA AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 25 Figure AIFigure AI Round Date Amount Series A Feb 2024$675mm Series A May 2023$70mm Financing Jan 2021$100mm FoundedFounded:2022 EmployeesEmployees:120 T

136、otal RaisedTotal Raised:$845 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$2.6 billion Figure AI,a California-based robotics startup,is at the forefront of humanoid robotics with its latest model,Figure 02.Backed by Microsoft,OpenAI,and Nvidia,the company recently raised$675 million in a Series B,valuin

137、g it at$2.6 billion.Figure 02 was successfully tested at BMW Groups Spartanburg plant,performing complex tasks autonomously.The robot features advanced dexterity,sensors,and human-equivalent strength.Figures team includes veterans from Boston Dynamics,Google DeepMind,and Tesla,driving innovation for

138、 industrial applications.Commercial rollout is planned for 2025,addressing labor shortages and hazardous jobs.Select Investors:Select Investors:NVIDIA,OpenAI,Jeff Bezos,Microsoft,Intel Capital,LG Select Customers:Select Customers:BMW Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and

139、Board:Brett Adcock-CEO and Founder GeneralGeneral-purpose humanoidspurpose humanoids WebsiteWebsite:figure.ai HQHQ:Sunnyvale,CA AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 26 Fourier IntelligenceFourier Intelligence Round Date Amount Series D Jan 2022$63mm Series C Oct 2020$15mm Series B Jun 2019$3mm Series

140、A Mar 2018$5m FoundedFounded:2015 EmployeesEmployees:537 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$157 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$137 million Fourier,a Shanghai-based robotics company,recently launched its latest humanoid robot,GR-2,as part of its GRx series.The 175 cm tall GR-2 features 53 degrees o

141、f freedom,a detachable battery with a two-hour runtime,and enhanced dexterity with hands offering 12 degrees of freedom.With roots in healthcare robotics and exoskeleton development,Fourier is now focusing on AI-enabled humanoid robots for industrial applications.The company plans to mass-produce it

142、s robots by the end of 2023,aiming to deliver thousands of units in 2024.Fourier collaborates with major AI firms to advance the“brain”of its bipedal robots,including NVIDIAs Project GR00T.Select Investors:Select Investors:SoftBank,HongShan(ex Sequoia China),Prosperity7 Select Customers:Select Custo

143、mers:SensoRehab,ETH Zurich Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Jie Gu-CEO and Co-Founder Zen Koh-CSO and Co-Founder Joseph Chang-MD,Prosperity7 Ventures Suyang Zhang-MD,IDG Capital ShanghaiShanghai-based healthcare humanoidsbased healthcare humanoids WebsiteWebsit

144、e: HQHQ:Shanghai,China AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 27 Neura RoboticsNeura Robotics Round Date Amount Series A3 Feb 2024$50mm Series A2 Oct 2023$16mm Series A Jun 2023$60mm Seed Jun 2021$86m FoundedFounded:2019 EmployeesEmployees:250 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$211 million Latest ValuationLatest

145、 Valuation:Unknown Neura Robotics,based in Germany,is at the forefront of cognitive robotics innovation.The companys product line includes collaborative robots,mobile platforms,and its latest humanoid,4NE-1,designed to interact with humans using AI-powered voice and gesture recognition.Neura has par

146、tnered with Nvidia to integrate Jetson Thor for enhanced AI capabilities.The company recently announced a shift in production from China to Germany,emphasizing its commitment to“Made in Germany”quality.With significant advancements in AI and sensor technology,Neura Robotics aims to revolutionize ind

147、ustries from manufacturing to healthcare with cutting-edge robotic solutions.Select Investors:Select Investors:InterAlpen Partners,HV Capital,Primpulse,VSquared Select Customers:Select Customers:NVIDIA,Omron,Jetson Thor Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:David Re

148、ger-CEO and Co-Founder Jens Fabrowsky-COO Bernd Heinrichs-CGO Milad Malekzadeh-Head of AI German cobots for complex environmentsGerman cobots for complex environments WebsiteWebsite:neura- HQHQ:Stuttgart,Germany AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 28 Sanctuary AISanctuary AI Round Date Amount Late St

149、age Jul 2024$22mm Late Stage Nov 2023$11mm Late Stage Dec 2021$22mm Series A Mar 2022$59m FoundedFounded:2018 EmployeesEmployees:171 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$118 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$229 million Sanctuary AI,a Vancouver-based robotics company,is developing Phoenix,a general-pur

150、pose humanoid robot designed to replicate human-like intelligence.Founded in 2018,the company has raised over$140 million,with backing from BDC Capital,InBC Investment Corp,and Magna International.Sanctuary focuses on solving labor shortages by enabling robots to perform complex tasks in various ind

151、ustries.The company claims to have tested the robots across 400 tasks in 15 different industries,with partners such as Magna and Marks retail store.In April 2024,the seventh generation of Phoenix successfully completed 110 tasks in a retail pilot.Select Investors:Select Investors:Accenture,Governmen

152、t of Canada,Verizon,DCVC Select Customers:Select Customers:Magna,Ansys,Microsoft,Marks Retail Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Geordie Rose Ph.D-CEO and Co-Founder Philip Smith-CFO Paula Gil-COO Olivia Norton-CTO and Co-Founder Canadian humanoids backed by Micr

153、osoftCanadian humanoids backed by Microsoft WebsiteWebsite:sanctuary.ai HQHQ:Vancouver,Canada AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 29 TeslaTesla Round Date Amount IPO Jun 2010$276mm Series C May 2006$40mm Series B Feb 2005$13mm Series A Apr 2004$8m FoundedFounded:2003 EmployeesEmployees:140,473 Total

154、RaisedTotal Raised:$39 billion Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:$770 billion Teslas Optimus is a humanoid robot designed for industrial applications,with plans for broader use in the future.Announced in 2021,Optimus has been a central focus for Tesla,with Elon Musk predicting it could help drive the

155、 company to a$25 trillion valuation and far surpass all its other product lines in terms of value.Equipped with 11 degrees of freedom and tactile sensors,Optimus is built to handle tasks autonomously,such as battery handling in Teslas factories.While Tesla plans for low production by 2025 and mass p

156、roduction by 2026,experts view Musks timeline as ambitious.Optimus aims to address labor shortages and transform the robotics market.Select Investors:Select Investors:Fidelity,T.Rowe,PIF,Vanguard,BlackRock Select Customers:Select Customers:Tesla Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Lea

157、dership and Board:Elon Musk-CEO and Co-Founder Vaibhav Taneja-CFO Tom Zhu-SVP Kimbal Musk-Bord Member Elon Musks take on humanoid robotsElon Musks take on humanoid robots WebsiteWebsite: HQHQ:Austin,Texas AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 30 Unitree RoboticsUnitree Robotics Round Date Amount Late S

158、tage Feb 2024$140mm Series B Apr 2022-Series A Feb 2021$1mm Angel Jan 2017$8m FoundedFounded:2016 EmployeesEmployees:300 Total RaisedTotal Raised:$150 million Latest ValuationLatest Valuation:Unknown Unitree,a Chinese company best known for its advanced quadruped robots,is expanding into humanoid ro

159、botics with the development of its H1 and G1 models.The H1 humanoid,standing 71 inches tall and weighing 100 lbs,features 5 degrees of freedom in its legs and 4 in its arms.The more advanced G1 will include 23 degrees of freedom,3-fingered hands,and a LiDAR-based vision system powered by Intel RealS

160、ense cameras.The G1 is designed to handle complex tasks like soldering,delicate object handling,and even flipping food in a frying pan.Unitree has priced the G1 at around$16,000,making it one of the most affordable humanoid robots on the market,ideal for robotics research.Select Investors:Select Inv

161、estors:Meituan,CITIC,Shenzhen Capital Group,HongShan Select Customers:Select Customers:DHL,Accenture,Samsung Video Demo:Video Demo:YouTube Leadership and Board:Leadership and Board:Xingxing Wang-CEO and Founder$16k bots backed by NVIDIA$16k bots backed by NVIDIA WebsiteWebsite: HQHQ:Hangzhou,China AUTOPILOT 2024 All Rights Reserved 31 Will Summerlin willapv.vc Maximilian Friedrich maxapv.vc Contact us for more information Etienne Segal edapv.vc