【公司研究】三聚環保--國內生物質燃油行業“潛力股”-20200712[18頁].pdf

1、 / “” Table_Summary 7 HVO 2019 5/4/ 40/ 2021-2022150/ 2020-2022 EPS0.020.210.66“” 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 15,381 8,483 9,758 15,207 26,640 (+/-)% -31.57% -44.84% 15.03% 55.84% 75.18% 506 139 50 500 1,542 (+/-)% -80.09% -72.56% -63.90% 899.14% 208.31% 0.22 0.06 0.02 0.21 0.66 12.94 -22.30 252.0

2、4 25.23 8.18 2.51 1.54 1.29 1.23 1.17 (%) 5.61% 1.51% 0.51% 4.87% 14.35% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 2,351 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2020/7/10 6 10.5 5.37 12 3.608.33 10,010 2,350 A 2,350 B/H 0/0 24 -55% -43% -31% -19% -7% 5% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 16% -11% -46% 10% -22% -54% 1

3、0 -20200630 PLA -20200609 -20200223 “”“” -20200121 S0550520020001 13801276398 300072 / 2020-07-12 2 / 18 1. . 3 1.1. . 3 1.2. . 4 1.2.1. . 4 1.2.2. . 4 2. . 5 2.1. . 5 2.2. . 7 2.2.1. . 7 2.2.2. . 7 2.3. . 8 2.4. . 10 3. . 11 4. . 12 4.1. . 12 4.2. . 14 5. . 15 12010-2019 . 3 22010-2019 . 3 3 . 6 4

4、. 6 5 . 6 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 8 102017. 9 112018 . 9 12 . 9 13 . 10 1 . 11 2 . 12 3 . 13 4 . 14 nMqPrRsOmPrOqOnOpOmPsO9PdNbRnPpPmOpPfQrRtMjMoPnOaQqQuNMYnQyQxNoOoR 3 / 18 1 1.1. 19972010 “” “”“ ”“” 2010-2014 2014-2019 201912 2010-2019 12010-2019 22010-2019 80 2019 4 / 18 84.8342.48%() 27.29%19.03%7

5、.63% 3.53% 1.2. 1.2.1. 2019 Axens 100/MCT 2019 2020630 80 “16” 50.30 9.68 1.2.2. BP Gunvor Group 5 / 18 2020 40 2. 2.1. 300 7% HVO HVO 31 5/ 4/ 6 / 18 1,000 HVO 3 4 5 CN() 4560CN5060 80 1222 810 20035 2006 220094 2020 10% 2030 25% 2018 32% 7 / 18 6 2019 2.2. 2.2.1. “” 32 4 7 2019 2.2.2. “ ” 20191231

6、 5794201592019 1218437 MCT 8 / 18 - 7 20 MCT 20-30% HVO10 HVO HVOHVO 8 9 2.3. REN212017 277237.76%; 883.31% 20189100 6%54020181.5 20199550/ 20185%3.1% 59%35%6%13%3300 9 / 18 57% 17%14%12%8% 6.3%5.3% 201840201979 2019570/12% 1900/2019 102017 112018 REN212018 12 REN212019 REN212018 20171280245 2020 10

7、%5.45% -20254500, 3502020 ICAO94.3%119 “” 2019208 142018 10 / 18 0.1%2019 1075000 NESTE 20305000 /2500/ 13 , 16-18 B5 2014-2020“ ”REN212017700 201788 REN211001000 11 24/202010/ 5/ 4/402020912 2.4. 201911 24/ 5-10/10 /50/ 11 / 18 1 / 126.19 5/4/ 40/ 69.84 24/202010/ - 10/ - 6/ - 5/ - 6/ - 5/ - 100/ 2

8、0192020/7/3 3. 2019 10748 5000Gunvor Group20206 4 Gunvor International B.V .20 100270 2% 20198 81 12 / 18 129901.63 55%12163 2020314 1 6193.85 84.62%030% 35,500 45,500MCT 40/40 202012 11 2019 2020-2022 2022 250/ 4. 4.1. UCOME2020 202020212022 2 13 / 18 2020 LNG 20192020 202020 3 2019A 2020E 2021E 20

9、22E 182.00 228.13 3193.75 12318.75 / 9100.00 9125.00 9125.00 9125.00 20000.00 25000.00 350000.00 1350000.00 126.00 159.00 2226.00 8586.00 / 6300.00 6360.00 6360.00 6360.00 20000.00 25000.00 350000.00 1350000.00 56.00 69.13 967.75 3732.75 30.77% 30.30% 30.30% 30.30% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 36.00

10、44.12 617.74 2382.72 20.00 25.00 350.01 1350.03 14 / 18 Wind 4 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1924.01 299.78 397.26 512.91 600.61 757.24 252.31 397.14 512.80 600.55 1166.77 47.47 0.12 0.10 0.06 60.64% 15.83% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 2252.40 2315.00 2437.70 2520.58 2573.76 1841.06 1964.07 2427.68 2510.54 256

11、3.70 411.34 350.93 10.02 10.03 10.06 18.26% 15.16% 0.41% 0.40% 0.39% 3666.07 646.96 654.19 658.22 660.84 2548.91 535.56 654.09 658.18 660.84 1117.16 111.40 0.10 0.04 0.00 30.47% 17.22% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 6509.50 3421.30 3333.49 3260.54 3227.94 6348.99 3344.97 3333.29 3260.41 3227.87 160.51 76.33 0.20

12、 0.13 0.06 2.47% 2.23% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 1021.71 1614.67 2702.77 5055.11 7250.62 709.51 1207.12 2687.74 4905.02 7100.53 312.20 407.55 15.03 150.09 150.09 30.56% 25.24% 0.56% 2.97% 2.07% 6.85 3.48 4.61 5.77 7.06 3.07 0.40 4.60 5.76 7.06 3.78 3.08 0.01 0.00 0.01 55.18% 88.51% 0.15% 0.03% 0.07% Wind 4.

13、2. 2020-2022 50.06500.211542.18EPS 0.020.210.66 2020-202225350.011350.03 “” 15 / 18 5. 16 / 18 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3881.78 3157.24 2627.08 2125.34 120.13 50.44 502.14 1546.09 3.16 2.17 1.71 1.57 -7.07 -7.07 -7.07 -7.07 7980.87 7681.16 5950.00 4967.91 346.51 375.40 447.19

14、589.17 2349.17 1751.13 1526.83 1140.61 2.11 -1.24 -1.24 -0.12 154.50 102.43 90.33 73.17 532.39 239.58 407.28 733.10 16618.814956.911815.99807.25 9.11 -5.93 1.59 -2.17 27.00 40.20 45.63 61.67 -1572.46 -273.603-2259.80-1419.02 2539.75 3622.02 4292.18 5670.51 0 0 0 0 863.22 1193.36 1458.84 1896.43 3553

15、.05 272.26 2394.93 3527.23 133.31 201.38 225.29 306.86 -792.66 -832.29 -873.91 -917.60 41.96 5.72 70.91 49.36 -1787.79 -1251.45 -1001.16 -800.93 4736.92 6158.00 8005.39 10086.8 967.75 -1806.48 527.86 1818.70 21355.721114.919821.319894.0 1618.66 1845.27 2029.80 2232.78 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 4667.39

16、 3364.45 2438.19 1798.06 604.58 725.50 906.87 997.56 0.06 0.02 0.21 0.66 685.01 513.76 256.88 102.75 3.97 4.15 4.38 4.57 8166.33 6778.05 5896.91 5307.22 1.51 0.12 1.02 1.50 1152.30 979.46 891.30 811.09 441.52 1542.15 991.84 1002.61 -44.84% 15.0% 55.8% 75.2% 1593.82 2521.61 1883.14 1813.70 -79.58% -5

17、8.01% 895.55% 207.90% 10013.99527.03 8004.17 7336.33 9646.04 9748.42 10280.910744.7 1.1% 0.5% 3.3% 6.1% 1695.73 1839.46 1536.23 1812.96 1.4% 0.5% 3.3% 5.8% 21355.721114.919821.319894.0 1.06 1.27 2.56 5.36 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3.78 5.98 10.17 22.31 8483.19 9758.13 15206.826639.5 7466.42 9663.54 14

18、078.722746.5 46.9% 45.1% 40.4% 36.9% 13.43 15.45 24.07 42.17 2.04 2.21 2.00 1.85 -7.07 -7.07 -7.07 -7.07 2.04 2.21 2.00 1.85 164.17 82.09 151.86 302.20 444.48 266.69 480.04 864.07 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 532.39 239.58 407.28 733.10 5.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.11 -1.24 -1.24 -0.12 6.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% -9.11 5.9

19、3 -1.59 2.17 91.00 45.54 498.33 1635.62 12.35 12.27 12.16 11.72 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103.72 57.81 510.48 1647.34 -16.41 7.37 8.34 101.25 P/E -22.30 252.04 25.23 8.18 120.13 50.44 502.14 1546.09 P/B 1.54 1.29 1.23 1.17 138.70 50.06 500.21 1542.18 P/S 1.68 1.29 0.83 0.47 -18.57 0.38 1.94 3.91 1.5% 0.5%

20、 4.9% 14.4% 17 / 18 222019 20122014 20162017Wind 500+ “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 18 / 18 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13636606340 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ 021

21、-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361112 18801903156 021-20361133 18516728369 021-20361133 13122617959 021-20361229 15213310661 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-63210813 18153683452 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 18516772531 0755-33975865 18620093160 0755-33975865 18664323108 C 021-20361229 18616369028 021-20361229 15921911962