古井貢酒-首次覆蓋：年份原漿增速趨緩省外拓展仍待觀察-220510（15頁）.pdf

1、 Table_yemei1 觀點聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責聲明，請參閱附錄。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 研究報告 Research Report 10 May 2022 古井貢酒古井貢酒

2、 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋：年份原漿增速趨緩，省外拓展仍待觀察 The Growth of Aged Original Spirits Slowed Down, and the Expansion Outside the Province Remains to be Seen: Initiation Table_Info 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性Initiate with NEUTRAL 評級 中性 NEUTRAL 現價 Rmb193.81 目標價 Rmb190.00 MSCI ESG 評級 B 義利評級 BB+ 來源:

3、MSCI ESG Research LLC, 盟浪. Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb89.89bn / US$13.45bn 日交易額 (3 個月均值) US$85.25mn 發行股票數目 408.60mn 自由流通股 (%) 34% 1 年股價最高最低值 Rmb274.00-Rmb164.06 注：現價 Rmb193.81 為 2022 年 5 月 9 日收盤價 資料來源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 絕對值 13.0% -7.5% -4.7% 絕對值（美元） 7.6% -11.9% -7.

4、7% 相對 MSCI China 40.8% 21.8% 33.5% Table_Profit (Rmb mn) Dec-21A Dec-22E Dec-23E Dec-24E 營業收入 13,270 15,805 18,687 21,887 (+/-) 29% 19% 18% 17% 凈利潤 2,298 2,868 3,551 4,305 (+/-) 24% 25% 24% 21% 全面攤薄 EPS (Rmb) 4.35 5.43 6.72 8.14 毛利率 75.1% 75.6% 76.2% 76.7% 凈資產收益率 13.9% 16.0% 18.0% 19.7% 市盈率 45 36 29

5、 24 資料來源：公司信息, HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 名酒品牌底蘊深厚名酒品牌底蘊深厚，改革創新順勢為王，改革創新順勢為王。古井貢酒坐落在歷史名人曹操與華佗故里、世界十大烈酒產區之一的安徽省亳州市，以“桃花春曲、無極之水、九醞酒法、明代窖池”的獨特工藝被評為中國老八大名酒之一，先后四次蟬聯全國評大酒會評比金獎。行業深度調整期后，公司緊抓營銷模式變革，在次高端加速擴容的機遇下，呈現量價齊升的強勁增長態勢，穩居徽酒龍頭地位。 產品結構持續優化，營收業績穩健增長產品結構持續優化，營收業績穩健增長。公司借助年份原漿系列提前進行價格

6、帶占位，2018 年公司重磅推出古 20 產品，確立次高端戰略。2016 年至 2021 年，公司營收由 60.2 億元增長至 132.7 億元，期間 CAGR 為 17.1%，高于省內其他徽酒品牌。2021 年白酒銷量同比提升 16.2%，實現疫情前的恢復性增長，五年期間 CAGR 為4.4%。得益于產品結構升級和費用率小幅收縮，2016 年至 2021 年歸母凈利潤快速提升，期間 CAGR 為 22.6%。 年份原漿引領消費升級，渠道精耕加速年份原漿引領消費升級，渠道精耕加速省內外省內外增長增長。作為老八大名酒之一，公司具備先天的品牌復蘇實力。連續多年冠名春晚，與傳統節日相結合打造“年文化

7、”，并于 2021 年加入“一帶一路”貿易投資論壇戰略合作伙伴，用“中國釀”貢獻“世界香”。近年來，公司產品增長動能順利從古 5 向古 8 遷移，同時進一步借助拳頭產品古 20 開啟了高端品牌形象之旅。在收購黃鶴樓酒、明光酒業后，形成了以年 30、古 20、明綠液御酒以及黃鶴樓大清香為產品代表的“三品四香”新格局。在渠道端，公司采用廠商 1+1 模式，通過“三通工程”強勁的渠道拉力，呈現“小區域、高占有”式滾動發展。近年公司加快全國化招商，以古 8、古 16 和古 20 為重點推廣對象，初步實現泛全國化布局。 省內外競爭加劇，省內外競爭加劇，高銷售費用率已成常態高銷售費用率已成常態。2021

8、年年份原漿營收增速為 18.8%，銷量增速為 1.4%，2019 年至 2021 年期間復合增速分別是 12.5%和 2.7%，年份系列銷量增速趨緩，增長主要來自價格推動。公司持續高舉高打來提升品牌力，費用率長期處于高位，但對業績彈性貢獻有限，2021 年凈利潤率較 2016 年提升 3.5pct 至17.3%，較去年同期降低 0.7pct。公司的收入增長主要源于省內消費支撐，地域依賴性強，省外拓展有待加速，2021 年以安徽為主的華中市場、華北市場和華南市場營收占比分別為 85.3%、8.1%和6.6%，較 2016 年分別-2.6pct、+2.3%、+0.2%。 投資建議與盈利預測。投資建

9、議與盈利預測。我們預計公司 2022-2024 年營收分別為158.1/186.9/218.9億 元 ， 預 計2022-2024年EPS分 別 為5.43/6.72/8.14。參考可比公司 2022 年 PE 平均值為 31 倍，給予古井貢酒 2022 年 35 倍 PE，對應目標價為 190 元，首次覆蓋給予“中性”評級。 風險提示：風險提示：行業競爭加劇，疫情影響需求，管理能力不及預期 Table_Author 陳子葉陳子葉 Susie Chen 聞宏偉聞宏偉 Hongwei Wen 5075100125150Price ReturnMSCI ChinaMay-21Sep-21Jan

10、-22Volume 10 May 2022 2 Table_header1 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 1. 名酒品牌底蘊深厚名酒品牌底蘊深厚，改革改革創新創新順勢為王順勢為王 古井貢酒坐落在歷史名人曹操與華佗故里、世界十大烈酒產區之一的安徽省亳州市，以“桃花春曲、無極之水、九醞酒法、明代窖池”的獨特工藝被評為中國老八大名酒之一，先后四次蟬聯全國評大酒會評比金獎。 表表1 歷屆全國評酒大會獲獎情況歷屆全國評酒大會獲獎情況 年份 評獎 獲獎企業 1963 八大名酒 茅臺、五糧液、瀘州老窖、古井貢酒、全興大曲、西鳳酒、汾酒、董酒 1979 八大名酒 茅臺、汾酒、五糧

11、液、瀘州老窖、古井貢酒、董酒、劍南春、洋河 1984 十三大名酒 茅臺、汾酒、五糧液、洋河、劍南春、古井貢酒、西鳳酒、瀘州老窖、全興大曲、雙溝、黃鶴樓、郎酒、董酒 1989 十七大名酒 茅臺、汾酒、五糧液、洋河、劍南春、古井貢酒、西鳳酒、瀘州老窖特曲、全興大曲、雙溝、黃鶴樓、郎酒、董酒、武陵酒、寶豐酒、宋河糧液、沱牌曲酒 資料來源：公開資料，HTI 根據 2021 年年報顯示，公司是亳州市國資委下屬的國有企業，安徽古井集團有限責任公司為控股股東，持股比例為 51.34%，股權結構穩定。2007 年新任管理層上任后，圍繞回歸與振興的理念，重新制定內部管理流程、產品結構與市場規劃。2008年成功推

12、出年份原漿系列，形成先發優勢。自 2016 年行業深度調整之后，公司緊抓營銷模式變革，在次高端加速擴容的機遇下，呈現出量價齊升的強勁增長態勢，穩居徽酒龍頭地位。 黃鶴樓酒是湖北省唯一的中國名酒，產品以“綿柔醇厚，優雅凈爽，余香回味悠長”的獨特風格，榮獲 1984 年、1989 年兩屆全國白酒評比金獎。2016 年 4 月，古井貢酒與黃鶴樓酒業簽訂戰略合作協議，開啟中國名酒合作新時代，公司逐步實施外延式增長。2021 年 1 月，古井貢酒與明光酒業簽訂戰略合作協議。明光酒業獨特的綠豆香型為古井名酒家族再添新銳。 圖圖1 公司股權結構公司股權結構 資料來源：公司公告， HTI xUdYjZhYhU

13、kWiUpYiY9P9R6MnPqQnPnPeRrRrMiNpOpOaQoOvMwMrNuMvPnPnN 10 May 2022 3 Table_header1 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 2. 產品結構持續優化產品結構持續優化，營收業績穩健增長營收業績穩健增長 近五年來，居民收入穩步提升，白酒需求結構不斷優化。公司借助年份原漿系列提前進行價格帶占位，充分享受省內消費升級紅利，持續升級產品結構，順利實現量價齊升。2016 年白酒行業進入復蘇期，2016 年至 2021 年期間公司營收由 60.2 億元增長至 132.7 億元，期間 CAGR 為 17.1%，高于

14、省內其他徽酒品牌（迎駕貢酒/口子窖/金種子期間 CAGR 分別為 8.5%/12.2%/-3.3%）。 圖圖2 公司營收及增速公司營收及增速 圖圖3 白酒銷白酒銷量及增速量及增速 資料來源：wind，HTI， 資料來源：wind，HTI 在銷量方面，2016 年至 2021 年公司白酒銷量由 8.2 萬噸提升至 10.1 萬噸，期間CAGR 為 4.4%，2021 年白酒銷量同比提升 16.2%，實現疫情前的恢復性增長。2016 年至 2021 年公司噸價由 7.4 萬元提升至 13.1 萬元，期間 CAGR 為 12.2%。2017 年公司將營銷重心逐步移向古 7、古 8，提前卡位 200-

15、300 元價位帶，在當下競品較少的情況下快速實現放量，充分享受了消費升級的紅利。2018 年公司重磅推出古 20 產品，確立次高端戰略，在品牌運作方面高舉高打，全面提升品牌基礎。 公司 2021 年實現歸母凈利潤 23.0 億元，同比增長 23.9%，得益于產品結構升級和費用率小幅收縮，2016 年至 2021 年的歸母凈利潤快速提升，期間 CAGR 為 22.6%。 圖圖4 白酒噸價及增速白酒噸價及增速 圖圖5 公司歸母凈利潤及增速公司歸母凈利潤及增速 資料來源：wind，HTI， 資料來源：wind，HTI -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35% - 2,000 4,000 6

16、,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000201620172018201920202021營業收入(百萬元)增速-5%0%5%10%15%20% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000201620172018201920202021銷量（千升）增速0%5%10%15%20%25%30% - 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0201620172018201920202021噸價（萬元/千升）增速-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

17、2,500201620172018201920202021歸母凈利潤(百萬元)增速 10 May 2022 4 Table_header1 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 3. 年份原漿引領消費升級年份原漿引領消費升級，渠道精耕渠道精耕加速加速省內外省內外增長增長 徽酒龍頭底蘊深厚徽酒龍頭底蘊深厚，品牌價值再創新高。，品牌價值再創新高。從品牌端來看，公司作為老八大名酒之一，具備先天的品牌復蘇實力。自2016年以來，公司積極贊助央視廣告、高鐵動車，增加年份原漿曝光度和知名度，連續多年冠名春晚，與傳統節日相結合打造“年文化”，加深全國消費者的記憶廣度。2021 年公司加

18、入“一帶一路”貿易投資論壇戰略合作伙伴，用“中國釀”貢獻“世界香”，爭取再造一個“數字化、國際化、法治化”的新古井。 聚焦消費升級，完善產品矩陣。聚焦消費升級，完善產品矩陣。從產品端來看，公司于 2008 年推出年份原漿系列，通過長期實踐，形成了較為強大的產品培育和消費者引導能力。在省內主流價格帶升級的環境下，公司充分享受次高端擴容紅利，近年來，產品增長動能順利從古 5向古 8遷移，同時進一步借助拳頭產品古 20開啟了高端品牌形象之旅，完成了產品價格帶全覆蓋。在收購黃鶴樓酒、明光酒業后，公司形成了以年 30、古 20、明綠液御酒以及黃鶴樓大清香為產品代表的三品四香新格局。 深化深化“三通工程三

19、通工程”戰略，推進全國化布局。戰略，推進全國化布局。從渠道端來看，公司作為地產酒龍頭，采用廠商1+1模式，在掌控終端的基礎上，增大費用投入，擴大銷售半徑，通過“路路通、店店通、人人通”強勁的渠道拉力，實現產品陳列面最大化，推薦率最大化和消費者指名購買率最大化，助力渠道深耕細作。在該模式下，公司能夠大幅提高局部市場占有率，并通過復制模式實現快速擴張，即“小區域、高占有”式滾動發展。古井貢酒近年來加快全國化招商布局，以古 8、古 16 和古 20 為重點推廣對象，采取針對性渠道模式，初步實現泛全國化布局。 4. 省內外競爭加劇省內外競爭加劇，業績彈性有待釋放業績彈性有待釋放 年份系列放量趨緩，價年

20、份系列放量趨緩，價格格貢獻貢獻主要增長主要增長。2021 年年份原漿營收增速為 18.8%，銷量增速為 1.4%，2019 年至 2021 年復合增速分別是 12.5%和 2.7%，年份系列銷量增速趨緩，增長主要來自價格推動。2021 年黃鶴樓營收和銷量增速分別為 168.7%、100.5%，三年期間復合增速為 12.4%、2.8%，受新冠疫情等不可抗因素影響，2020 年公司與黃鶴樓就業績承諾順延一年的協議達成一致，2021 年黃鶴樓系列在去年低基數下實現恢復性增長。古井貢酒系列和其他酒類三年間營收復合增速為 5.8%和 22.5%，銷量復合增速是 15.9%和 2.0%。 圖圖6 近三年不

21、同產品營收近三年不同產品營收 圖圖7 近三年不同產品銷近三年不同產品銷量量 資料來源：wind，HTI， 資料來源：wind，HTI 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000年份原漿古井貢酒黃鶴樓其他20192020202105,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000年份原漿古井貢酒黃鶴樓其他201920202021 10 May 2022 5 Table_header1 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 費用投放處于高位，費用投

22、放處于高位，業績彈性貢獻有限業績彈性貢獻有限。近年來公司一直采用高舉高打的費用投放方式樹立品牌形象，提升全國范圍內的品牌話題度，在渠道拓展方面，借助“小區域、高占有”滾動發展模式，費用率長期處于高位，但對業績彈性貢獻有限，2021 年公司凈利潤率較 2016 年提升 3.5pct 至 17.3%，較去年同期減少 0.7pct。 圖圖8 銷售費用、管理費用及凈利潤率變化銷售費用、管理費用及凈利潤率變化 資料來源：wind，HTI， 省內外競爭激烈省內外競爭激烈，省外拓展省外拓展有待加速有待加速。安徽省內渠道競爭向來激烈，徽酒品牌各自防守大本營市場，借助極高的營銷壁壘在白酒行業留下“東不入皖”的印

23、象。然而近年來在省內消費升級，次高端快速擴容的市場環境影響下，公司逐步面臨省內酒企競爭加劇和外省酒企大舉入侵的雙重市場搶占局面，穩定省內基礎市場需要消耗公司大量營銷資源，導致省外拓展也相對緩慢。 2021 年以安徽為主的華中市場、華北市場和華南市場營收占比分別為 85.3%、8.1%和 6.6%，較 2016 年分別-2.6pct、+2.3%、+0.2%。公司的收入增長主要源于省內消費支撐，地域依賴性強。2021 年以安徽為主的華中市場、華北市場和華南市場分別同比提升 25%，54%和 51%，省外拓展有待繼續加速。 圖圖9 不同地區營收增速不同地區營收增速 圖圖10 不同地區營收占比不同地區

24、營收占比 資料來源：wind，HTI， 資料來源：wind，HTI 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%201620172018201920202021銷售費用率管理費用率凈利潤率-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20172018201920202021華中yoy華北yoy華南yoy88%90%91%90%88%85%6%5%5%5%7%8%6%5%4%5%6%7%75%80%85%90%95%100%201620172018201920202021華中華北華南 10 May 2022 6 Table_header1 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋

25、中性 5. 投資建議投資建議與與盈利預測盈利預測 我們預計公司 2022-2024 年營收分別為 158.1/186.9/218.9 億元，預計 2022-2024年 EPS 分別為 5.43/6.72/8.14。參考可比公司 2022 年 PE 平均值為 31，給予古井貢酒2022 年 35 倍 PE，對應目標價為 190 元，首次覆蓋給予“中性”評級。 表表 2 2022 年可比上市公司估值預測年可比上市公司估值預測 上市公司 證券代碼 收盤價（元） EPS（元） PE（倍） 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 600809.SH 山西汾酒 245.4 4.

26、36 6.42 8.51 72.5 38.2 28.8 002304.SZ 洋河股份 150.8 4.98 6.38 7.74 33.1 23.6 19.5 000799.SZ 酒鬼酒 137.2 2.75 4.26 5.79 77.3 32.2 23.7 平均值 31.4 24.0 資料來源：wind， HTI 注：收盤價為 2022 年 5 月 9 日數據，盈利預測來源于 Wind 一致預期 6. 風險提示風險提示 行業競爭加劇，疫情影響需求，管理能力不及預期 10 May 2022 7 Table_header2 古井貢酒 (000596 CH) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 財務報表分析和

27、預測財務報表分析和預測 主要財務指標 主要財務指標 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 利潤表 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 每股指標（元） 營業收入 13,270 15,805 18,687 21,887 每股收益 4.35 5.43 6.72 8.14 營業成本 3,304 3,860 4,449 5,103 每股凈資產 31.29 33.96 37.28 41.31 營業毛利 9,966 11,945 14,238 16,784 每股經營現金流 9.94 5.38 5.98 7.40 銷售費用 4,008 4,710 5,475 6,303 每股股利 2.2

28、0 2.75 3.40 4.12 管理費用 1,022 1,170 1,345 1,576 價值評估（倍） 營業利潤 4,936 6,066 7,417 8,905 P/E 44.58 35.72 28.85 23.80 應占聯營公司溢利 0 0 0 0 P/B 6.19 5.71 5.20 4.69 其他收益凈額 472 436 480 528 P/S 7.72 6.48 5.48 4.68 EBITDA 3,467 4,095 5,092 6,192 EV/EBITDA 26.17 21.94 17.51 14.24 折舊及攤銷 -302 -295 -353 -424 股息率% 1.1%

29、1.4% 1.8% 2.1% EBIT 3,165 3,801 4,740 5,768 盈利能力指標（%） 財務費用 -204 -125 -131 -140 毛利率 75.1% 75.6% 76.2% 76.7% 利息收入 211 281 296 313 凈利潤率 17.3% 18.1% 19.0% 19.7% 所得稅 -797 -993 -1,235 -1,494 凈資產回報率 13.8% 15.9% 18.0% 19.7% 凈利潤 2,374 2,963 3,670 4,448 投資回報率 12.9% 15.0% 17.0% 18.8% 凈利潤（未含少數股東損益） 2,298 2,868

30、3,551 4,305 盈利增長（%） 股本 529 529 529 529 營業收入增長率 28.9% 19.1% 18.2% 17.1% EPS 4.35 5.43 6.72 8.14 EBIT 增長率 28.0% 20.1% 24.7% 21.7% 凈利潤增長率 23.9% 24.8% 23.8% 21.2% 資產負債表（百萬元） 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 償債能力指標 流動資產 20,290 21,010 22,463 24,236 資產負債率 32.1% 29.6% 28.2% 26.7% 現金及現金等價物 11,925 12,584 13,299 14,254

31、流動比率 2.64 2.78 2.91 3.07 存貨 4,663 4,720 5,440 6,240 速動比率 2.03 2.16 2.21 2.28 應收賬款及票據 89 93 111 129 現金比率 1.55 1.67 1.73 1.81 抵押銀行存款 0 0 0 0 經營效率指標 其他 3,613 3,613 3,613 3,613 應收賬款周轉天數 2 2 2 2 非流動資產 5,128 5,522 5,983 6,513 存貨周轉天數 446 446 446 446 固定資產 1,984 2,448 2,979 3,578 總資產周轉率 0.52 0.60 0.66 0.71 預

32、付租金 44 44 44 44 固定資產周轉率 6.69 6.46 6.27 6.12 商譽 561 561 561 561 無形資產 1,063 994 924 855 現金流量表（百萬元） 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 聯營公司投資 0 0 0 0 息稅前利潤 3,473 4,251 5,257 6,365 遞延所得稅 284 284 284 284 財務費用/收入 -7 -156 -165 -173 其他 1,191 1,191 1,191 1,191 所得稅 -797 -993 -1,235 -1,494 總資產 25,418 26,532 28,446 30,750

33、 營運資本變化 -766 -161 -577 -641 流動負債 7,680 7,550 7,709 7,887 其他 3,351 -95 -118 -143 應付賬款及票據 1,148 1,048 1,207 1,385 經營活動現金流 5,254 2,845 3,162 3,914 合同負債 1,825 1,825 1,825 1,825 投資 -8,319 0 0 0 短期借款 30 0 0 0 資本性支出 -570 -689 -814 -954 應付稅款 873 873 873 873 其他 28 281 296 313 其他 3,803 3,803 3,803 3,803 投資活動現

34、金流 -8,861 -408 -518 -641 非流動負債 486 313 313 313 借款變動 72 -202 0 0 長期借款 172 0 0 0 支付利息 -204 -125 -131 -140 養老金固定收益 0 0 0 0 支付股息 -755 -1,163 -1,451 -1,797 遞延所得說 194 194 194 194 股權融資 4,963 0 0 0 其他 119 119 119 119 其他 -47 -288 -346 -381 股本 529 529 529 529 融資活動現金流 4,028 -1,779 -1,929 -2,318 儲備 16,009 17,42

35、5 19,179 21,306 凈現金流 421 659 716 955 股東權益（不含少數股東權益） 16,537 17,954 19,708 21,834 匯率變動 5,533 0 0 0 少數股東權益 715 715 715 715 期末現金及等價物 11,925 12,584 13,299 14,254 負債及所有者權益 25,418 26,532 28,446 30,750 備注：（1）表中計算估值指標的收盤價日期為 05 月 09 日；（2）以上各表均為簡表 資料來源：公司年報（2021），HTI 10 May 2022 8 Table_header2 古井貢酒 (000596 C

36、H) 首次覆蓋中性首次覆蓋中性 APPENDIX 1 Summary Anhui Gujing Distillerys brand has a profound background. It became the leader of Anhui liquor through reform and innovation. The company is located in Bozhou City, Anhui Province, the hometown of historical celebrities Cao Cao and Hua Tuo and one of the top ten sp

37、irits producing areas in the world. It has been rated as one of the top eight famous wines in China, and has won the gold medal in the national appraisal wine competition for four consecutive times. After the in-depth adjustment of the industry, the company has seized the opportunity to change its m

38、arketing model. Under the opportunity of accelerated expansion of sub-high-end products, the company has shown a strong growth trend of both volume and price, and has been firmly in the leading position of Anhui spirits. The product structure continued to be optimized, and the revenue performance gr

39、ew steadily. The company used the Aged Original Spirits to occupy the price band in advance. In 2018, the company launched the Gu 20 products and established the sub-high-end strategy. From 2016 to 2021, the companys revenue increased from 6.02 billion yuan to 13.27 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 17.1

40、% during the period, higher than other Anhui wine brands in the province. Liquor sales in 2021 increased by 16.2% year-on-year, achieving a recovery growth before the epidemic, with a CAGR of 4.4% during the five-year period. Benefiting from the product structure upgrade and the slight shrinkage of

41、the expense ratio, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased rapidly from 2016 to 2021, with a CAGR of 22.6% during the period. Aged Original Spirits leads the consumption upgrade, and the intensive cultivation of channels accelerates the growth inside and outside the province. As

42、one of the old eight famous wines, the company has the innate brand recovery strength. It has been titled the Spring Festival Gala for many consecutive years, combined with traditional festivals to create New Years culture, and joined the Belt and Road Trade and Investment Forum as a strategic partn

43、er in 2021 to contribute to the worlds fragrance with Chinese brew. In recent years, the growth momentum of the companys products has been successfully migrated from Gu 5 to Gu 8, and at the same time, it has further started a high-end brand image journey with the help of the product Gu 20. After th

44、e acquisition of Yellow Crane Tower Wine and Mingguang Wine Industry, a new pattern of Three Grades and Four Fragrances has been formed, represented by Nian 30, Gu 20, Mingluye Royal Liquor and Yellow Crane Tower Daqingxiang. On the channel side, the company adopts the manufacturer 1+1 model, and pr

45、esents a rolling development of small area, high occupation through the strong channel pull of the three-way project. In recent years, the company has accelerated national investment promotion, focusing on the promotion of ancient 8, ancient 16 and ancient 20, and initially achieved a pan-national l

46、ayout. Competition inside and outside the province has intensified, and high sales expense rates have become the norm. In 2021, the revenue growth rate of Aged Original Spirits was 18.8%, and the sales growth rate was 1.4%. The compound growth rate from 2019 to 2021 was 12.5% and 2.7%, respectively.

47、 The sales growth rate of the Aged Original Spirits slowed down, and the growth was mainly driven by price. The company continued to raise its brand power by inputting sales expenses. The expense ratio has been at a high level for a long time, but its contribution to the elasticity of performance wa

48、s limited. The net profit margin in 2021 increased by 3.5pct to 17.3% compared with 2016, and decreased by 0.7pct compared with the same period last year. The companys revenue growth was mainly due to the support of consumption in the province, with strong geographical dependence, and the expansion

49、outside the province needed to be accelerated. In 2021, the revenue share of the central China market dominated by Anhui, the north China market and the southern China market was 85.3%, 8.1% and 6.6% respectively, a decrease of 2.6pct, an increase of 2.3% and an increase of 0.2% respectively compare

50、d with 2016. We expect the companys 2022-2024 revenue to be 15.81/18.69/21.89 billion yuan, respectively, and the expected 2022-2024 EPS to be 5.43/6.72/8.14, respectively. With reference to the average PE of comparable companies in 2022 is 31x, the PE of Anhui Gujing Distillery in 2022 is 35x. The

51、corresponding target price is 190 yuan. We initiated the company with an neutral rating. Risks: Industry competition intensifies; the epidemic affects demand; management capabilities are less than expected. 9 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附錄附錄APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTI

52、RL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K. (HTIJKK)和海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research team

53、s of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong International Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“

54、HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction. HTIRL分析師認證分析師認證Analyst Certification: 我， 陳子葉，在此保證（i）本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點，并且（ii）我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關；及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I, Susie Chen, certify that

55、(i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expres

56、sed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. 我， 聞宏偉，在此保證（i）本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點，并且（ii）我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關；及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中

57、均不持有任何財務利益。I, Hongwei Wen, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the

58、specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. 利益沖突披露利益沖突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通國際及其某些關聯公司可從事投資銀行業務和/或對本研究中的特定股票或公司進行做市或持有自營

59、頭寸。就本研究報告而言，以下是有關該等關系的披露事項（以下披露不能保證及時無遺漏，如需了解及時全面信息，請發郵件至ERD-D） HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned,

60、the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed). 000596.CH, 貴州茅臺酒廠集團啤酒有限責任公司 及茅臺建信（貴州）投資基金管理有限公司貴州茅臺建信食品投資管理中心（有限合伙）目前或過去12

61、個月內是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非投資銀行業務的證券相關業務服務。 000596.CH, 貴州茅臺酒廠集團啤酒有限責任公司 and茅臺建信（貴州）投資基金管理有限公司貴州茅臺建信食品投資管理中心（有限合伙） are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services. 10 評級定義評級定義（從（從2020年年7月月1日開始執行）日開始執行）： 海通

62、國際（以下簡稱“HTI”）采用相對評級系統來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司：優于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應仔細閱讀HTI的評級定義。并且HTI發布分析師觀點的完整信息，投資者應仔細閱讀全文而非僅看評級。在任何情況下，分析師的評級和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應基于各自情況（比如投資者的現有持倉）以及其他因素。 分析師股票評級分析師股票評級 優于大市優于大市，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 中性中性，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大，基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。 弱于大市

63、弱于大市，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數：日本 TOPIX, 韓國 KOSPI, 臺灣 TAIEX, 印度 Nifty100, 美國 SP500; 其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China. Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020): Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to inv

64、estors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its en

65、tirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other consideratio

66、ns. Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Neutral: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant

67、broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as

68、 indicated below. Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, India Nifty100, US SP500; for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China. 評級分布評級分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年3月月31日海通國際股票研究評級分布日海通國際股票研究評級分布 優于大市優于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有) 海通國際股票研究覆蓋率 88

69、.9% 9.5% 1.6% 投資銀行客戶* 6.8% 5.8% 0.0% *在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。 上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對應我們當前優于大市，中性和落后大市評級。 只有根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們才將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。請注意在上表中不包含非評級的股票。 此前的評級系統定義（直至此前的評級系統定義（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）： 買入，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 中性，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大，基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則，我們會將中性評級劃入持有這

70、一類別。 賣出，未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上，基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數：日本 TOPIX, 韓國 KOSPI, 臺灣 TAIEX, 印度 Nifty100; 其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China. 11 Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of Mar 31, 2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold) HTI Equity Research Coverage 88.9% 9.5% 1.6% IB clients* 6.8% 5

71、.8% 0.0% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold ra

72、ting category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): BUY: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated bel

73、ow. NEUTRAL: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. SELL: The stocks tot

74、al return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, India Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China. 海通國際非評級研

75、究：海通國際非評級研究：海通國際發布計量、篩選或短篇報告，并在報告中根據估值和其他指標對股票進行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍數提出建議價格。這種排名或建議價格并非為了進行股票評級、提出目標價格或進行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may su

76、ggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通國際海通國際A股覆蓋股覆蓋：海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A股進行覆蓋及評級。海通證券（600837.CH），海通國際于上海的母公司，也會于中國發布中國A股的研究報告。但是，海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統

77、，所以海通國際與海通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Haitong Securities (HS; 600837 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, cove

78、rs and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks. 海通國際海通國際優質優質100 A股股（Q100）指數指數：海通國際Q100指數是一個包括1

79、00支由海通證券覆蓋的優質中國A股的計量產品。這些股票是通過基于質量的篩選過程，并結合對海通證券 A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數成分作出復審。 Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected thro

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98、）的研究報告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收購并成為海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。 所有研究報告均以海通國際為名作為全球品牌，經許可由海通國際證券股份有限公司及/或海通國際證券集團的其他成員在其司法管轄區發布。 本文件所載信息和觀點已被編譯或源自可靠來源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISG”）的成員對其準確性、完整性和正確性不做任何明示或暗示的聲明或保證。本文件中所有觀點均截至本報告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件僅供參考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的說明并非意圖展示完整的內容，本文件并非/不應被解釋為對證券

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100、或代理人對此均不承擔任何責任。 除對本文內容承擔責任的分析師除外，HTISG及我們的關聯公司、高級管理人員、董事和雇員，均可不時作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長倉或短倉以及進行買賣。HTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業人士均可向HTISG的相關客戶和公司提供與本文件所述意見相反的口頭或書面市場評論意見或交易策略。HTISG可做出與本文件所述建議或意見不一致的投資決策。但HTIRL沒有義務來確保本文件的收件人了解到該等交易決定、思路或建議。 請訪問海通國際網站 ，查閱更多有關海通國際為預防和避免利益沖突設立的組織和行政安排的內容信息。 非美國分析師披露信息：非美國分析師披露信息：

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108、riptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not, and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as, an offer to buy or sell securities. The securities 13 referred to in this research report may not be eligible for pur

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