【研報】休閑服務行業：疫情影響下酒店業績詳細分拆測算-20200220[15頁].pdf

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2、/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -10.81% -3.73% 10.71% -8.47% -7.56% -7.04% 34 3405 3117 32.82 3.70 1384 95 % 45.13 2020: 2019-11-29 2020:/ / 2019-11-20 2019: & 2019-09-09 S0550517110003 (021)20361142 S0550519080008 18801903371 / 2020-02-20 2 / 15 1. 3-6 . 4 2. . 5 2.1.Q1RevPAR50%Q2. 5 2.2. 7

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5、19Q42020Q1RevPAR 2019Q42020Q1 3- 4- 6 / 15 5- 6- 2020Q1/2020Q2115 115-22910% 23/4/5/6 60%/80%/90%/95%4%/3%/2%/1% 3-6RevPAR42%/22%/12%/6%Q3 2020Q1-Q4 RevPAR-56%/-8%/-3%/-1.2%RevPAR -57%/-10%/-0.8%/1.3% 7- 8- 9- 10- 7 / 15 2.2. / 20202020Q1 1/6115Q2-Q4 85%/93%/100%2020731vs. 1018 12020 20Q120Q220Q320Q

6、4 629 620 612 602 597 592 587 582 -14 -9 -8 -10 -5 -5 -5 -5 8788899091929394 11111111 3,360 3,345 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 18 -15 3 00000 2,300 2,546 2,857 3,132 3,381 3,641 3,914 4,166 65%61%57%50%47%43%37%33% 212 246 311 275 249 260 273 251 19Q119Q219Q319Q4 22020 20Q120Q220Q320Q4 629 62

7、0 612 602 597 592 587 582 -14 -9 -8 -10 -5-5-5-5 8788899090919293 11110111 3,360 3,345 3,348 3,348 3,343 3,338 3,333 3,328 18 -15 3 0-5-5-5-5 2,300 2,546 2,857 3,132 3,174 3,394 3,648 3,900 65%61%57%50%38%33%28%25% 212 246 311 275 42 221 254 251 17%85%93%100% 19Q119Q219Q319Q4 15%3pct12%, 38%9pct29%

8、11- 12- 8 / 15 2.3. 2020Q1-Q412.8 /20.9/23.6/21.6vs.19.0/21.5/23.7/21.6 -37%/-8%/-3%/-1%vs. -7%/-6%/-3%/-1%202079.0/-12%vs. 85.7/-4% 13 14 1-2 2020Q1-Q46.7 /14.8/17.8/17.2vs.14.1/16.2/18.4/17.8 -45%/5%/10%/12%vs. 15%/15%/14%/16%202056.4/-2%vs. 66.5/+15% 15 16 9 / 15 2.4. /70% 17 /48/54/28 /1302019Q3

9、11.3 1500/22/ 34/27/& 18/ 19 116-229 70%3 24 2-410%2020Q1-Q4 13.1/18.6/19.5/19.19.9/13.0/13.3/13.2 3.1/5.6/6.2/5.9 10 / 15 2020Q12900 2020Q13.12 20&-70% 21&- 2.5. OTA 2018/ 8.4/23.4/1259 22 23 OTA25%12%116-229 70% 3%10%2020Q1-Q4 5.8/6.9/9.2/9.2 11 / 15 24 25 2.6. &2020Q1-Q4 -3.5/4.5/6.2/4.0202011.2/

10、-22% 2000 2020Q1-Q4-2.3/3.0/4.1/2.72020 7.38/-26% 26-70% 27- “”“” 2020 12 / 15 32020 3. 2020H12020Q3 2019Q3/ 59/40/16+15-20 /PE(TTM)25X/23X 28PETTM Band Wind 29PETTM Band Wind 13 / 15 + 12020Q3 2021 2 vs 3A 4. 14 / 15 CFA/ 201520193 CFA3 20193 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 15

11、 / 15 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 021-20361133 18516728369 021-2036113

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