【研報】通信行業：政策催化、行業需求、技術成熟共促nb~iot智能水表風口-20200217[25頁].pdf

1、 / NB-IoT NB-IoT 202010% “” NB-IoT20172019 “”NB-IoT 2G 4.433.526%47% 0.71.1 31%(Lora NB-IoT)10%NB-IoT 202040% 4000 500600 20NB-IoT EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 5.40 0.21 0.31 0.37 25.24 17.17 14.76 31.32 1.37 1.82 2.47 22.80 17.21 12.69 5.06 0.18 0.25 0.31 27.72 20.36 16.43 -2% 5% 12%

2、19% 26% 33% 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -4.20% 9.11% 11.20% 1.61% 7.58% -5.37% 105 12164 8621 123.43 3.89 6995 70 % 48.19 (603700)NB-IoT 20200204 (603700) 20200114 (300259) 20191223 (300259) 20191028 S0550518010001 010-58034574 2

3、020-02-17 2 / 25 1. NB-IoT. 4 1.1. . 4 1.2. . 4 1.3. NB-IoT . 5 1.3.1.1.0 . 5 1.3.2.NB-IoT5G . 6 1.3.3.NB-IoT . 6 1.3.4.NB-IoT . 8 1.3.5.NB-IoT2G . 8 2. . 9 2.1. . 9 2.2. . 9 2.3. 10% . 11 3. . 12 3.1. . 12 3.2. . 12 4. . 14 4.1. . 14 4.2. . 15 4.3. . 16 4.4. . 17 4.4.1. . 17 4.4.2. . 18 4.4.3.() .

4、19 4.4.4. . 20 4.4.5. . 21 4.4.6. . 21 3 / 25 5. . 22 5.1. . 22 5.2. . 22 4 / 25 1. NB-IoT 1.1. “”“” 2016“” () “” 20182019“ ”2017 () 202010%2019 1“” “” “”20196 “” 1 1 2016.2 “” 2 2016.10 “” 3 2016.6 “” 4 2017.1 () 5 2017.6 (NB-IoT) 6 2019.1 2019 44 NB-IoT 202031 1.2. 2015603 20.72% 5 / 25 DMA 1 2 NB

5、-IoT NB-IoT ICIC IC 2017(1)20172018 309534181.76 23(2)20172018 1020% 12%24067 IT NB-IoTIoT 20169 “+” 2017322NB-IoT1200NB-IoT 201879 NB-IoT202050 2019 4.45 1.3. NB-IoT 1.3.1. 1.0 6 / 25 2GNB-IoTLora 3 1.3.2. NB-IoT5G 201833GPP RAN793GPP“5G NReMTC/NB-IoT ”R14R15R163GPPNB-IoT R14R15 R16R15 R16NB-IoTLTE

6、eMTC2G 43GPP 3GPP 1.3.3. NB-IoT 7 / 25 NB-IoT NB-IoTLTE20dB 10010km+DRX()PSM 105GSMANB-IoT 721 5NB-IoT NB-IoT 2NB-IoT VIP GSMA 2017NB-IoTNB-IoT 20172019“” 20173NB-IoT2020 58NB-IoT20176 30NB-IoT20178NB-IoT 20171010NB-IoT() 2017 99.8%2018 100% 20192 375NB-IoT 8 / 25 1.3.4. NB-IoT 9010020176 2017NB-IoT

7、40NB-IoT 20002020NB-IoT NB-IoT1506 NB-IoT2017402018 40NB-IoTNB-IoT NB-IoT30 NB-IoT20346 6 1.3.5. NB-IoT2G NB-IoT2GNB-IoT 2017NB-IoT90-110 70-90500 5030 20167320183620189“ 300NB-IoT”30/2018 “500NB-IoT”NB-IoT 308025 202520NB-IoT15 2GNB-IoT 2017NB-IoT RDA Intel 2018“500NB-IoT”10 RDA683040 9 / 25 7NB-Io

8、T2G 3500NB-IoT ML5535N100WT208TPB41 MTK BC26N700ME3616 RDA ML2510A9600 R2N21 2. 2.1. 5060IC220260 Lora260NB-IoT280350( )2.0500600NB-IoT 25% 4 Lora NB-IoT 2.0 () 5060 220 220260 260 280350 500600 2.2. 201813.9 10 / 25 59.58% (2015)3.022.84 3.142.9 1.8“”2.9 110086% 81%1.5 4.433.526%47% 25mm 625mm50mm

9、4 10 201020121.29 201320151.66 6 1.662.950.550.98 20142018 7002 1100500 1600“”“”“” “” 925040%3700 ICLoraNB-IoT1/384(2016) 202012470234 201522001620 73.6%Frost & Sullivan(2015)20205400 4000 8 Wind 11 / 25 9 10() 2.3. 10% 201931%31%2600 1.08IC2G Lora NB-IoTLoraNB-IoT 30%3000NB-IoT20181000 10% 11 12 12

10、 / 25 13 3. 3.1. 4000 25001400 14 15 Wind Wind 3.2. 50060020195 NB-IoT22 13 / 25 5NB-IoT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 NB-IoT 58% 14 / 25 16 17NB-IoT 2015201825% 20172017 2019201715%25% LoraNB-IoT30% 18 19 4. 4.1. 2000 2011 NB-IoTLora30% 15 / 25 33YOY 21% 2778.99YOY 72%202

11、0 20002018 3115.036659.64 20143764.622018 1.675 20(2018) 4.2. 19582000 408 8mm500mm 60031 802019 201519.79%201839.41% 2019 IPO405600 16 / 25 14002018 10% 21 4.3. 20032010 DMA 1400 40% NB-IoTNB-IoT 2018 73320194NB-IoT 100 7191.2020% 17 / 25 22 4.4. 4.4.1. 2019 36.9%26.2%17.9% 53.8% 30.8% 43.1%60%90%

12、50%70% 85%115% NB-IoT NB-IoT 18 / 25 23 24 Wind Wind 25 26 Wind Wind 27 28 Wind Wind 4.4.2. 2017 49%2018 19 / 25 40% 29 30 Wind Wind 4.4.3. () 2018 25.7%15.8%14.7% 2018 2019 20187.5%4.6% 5.6% 20191% 31() 32 Wind Wind 20 / 25 33() 34 Wind Wind 4.4.4. 20187.0% 6.04%3.07%2018 0.600.320.412018491 32%126

13、12%18815% 2018886 160265 35 36 Wind Wind 37 38() Wind Wind 21 / 25 4.4.5. 2019 20.0%23.0%12.8% 2018201837.8%IPO 39 40 Wind Wind 2019 19211816447 1459516636 41 42 Wind Wind 4.4.6. 22 / 25 / 100% 20152017100% 2018IPO100% 2019 43/ 44 Wind Wind 5. 5.1. NB-IoT20172019“ ” “ ” 6 EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 20

14、18A 2019E 2020E 5.40 0.21 0.31 0.37 25.24 17.17 14.76 31.32 1.37 1.82 2.47 22.80 17.21 12.69 5.06 0.18 0.25 0.31 27.72 20.36 16.43 Wind 5.2. LA A 23 / 25 85% 24 / 25 201555G2016 2 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 25 / 25 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518

15、038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 021-20361133 18516728369 021-20361133 13122617959 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-58034561 18600646766 010-63210813 18153683452 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 18682251183 0755-33975865 18516772531 0755-33975865 18620093160 0755-33975865 18664323108 C