【研報】醫藥生物行業：特色原料藥板塊迎來中長期發展機遇-20200610[43頁].pdf

《【研報】醫藥生物行業：特色原料藥板塊迎來中長期發展機遇-20200610[43頁].pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《【研報】醫藥生物行業：特色原料藥板塊迎來中長期發展機遇-20200610[43頁].pdf（43頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、 / 2019120472.9% Evaluate Pharma51590 330 API API+ + 1/ 2 /CMO/CDMO EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 20.01 0.66 0.88 1.06 17 23 19 69.83 0.72 0.97 1.55 42 72 45 16.46 0.45 0.54 0.69 22 30 24 19.75 0.47 0.63 0.88 28 31 22 -2% 9% 20% 31% 42% 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/1

2、2 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 % 1M 3M 12M 5.07% 6.85% 51.45% 3.60% 9.66% 38.62% 331 58791 42745 42.46 3.76 17599 1007 % 44.28 -20200401 2020 CRO10 -20191128 -20191028 S0550517110001 021-20361131 S0550118080064 010-58034579 2020-06-10 2 / 43 1. . 3 1.1. . 3 1.2. 4 1.2.1. 4 1.2.2. . 7 2.“+” . 8

3、 2.1. . 8 2.2.API . 12 2.3. . 14 2.4.“” . 17 3. . 19 3.1. . 20 3.2. . 21 3.3./ . 23 3.4.CMO/CDMO. 23 4. . 25 4.1. . 25 4.2. . 29 4.3. 33 4.4. . 38 5. . 41 3 / 43 1. 1.1. ICHActive Pharmaceutical Ingredient API 1 1 / / / / / 4 / 43 2 CNKI 3 1.2. 1.2.1. 5 1/5 60% 80% 5 / 43 4 5 E 2008E2016 201710 E 6E

4、:50%:/kg Wind 6 / 43 7B1:98%:/kg 8D3(50IU/g):/kg 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Wind Wind 9K3:MSB96%:/kg 10A(50IU/g):/kg 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Wind Wind 6-APA2017 6-APA260/kg2019 6-APA145/kg 195/kg 116-APA/kg 12/kg Wind W

5、ind 7 / 43 13 1.2.2. 1 2 3 4 8 / 43 2 1600 8 5 6 2035X 4.28 5 1330 505 8.45 5 480 14 2. + 2.1. 2018 75.931.1% 203085205097 9 / 43 15 16 2018658.87%2000 6.87%201865 10.92%20006.81% 201620506515.7 16.7%2018 68.6% 6541.7%65841 38%19.5% 52.2%45.3% 63.2% 52.8% 1765 1865 10 / 43 19205065 An Aging World201

6、5 International Population Reports IMS2019 120472.9% 201816285.0% 11 / 43 20 21 IMS Evaluate Pharma 202020241590 71320% 5 330 22 Evaluate Pharma 12 / 43 23 CNKI 2.2. API API APIDMF 80%70% 2016DMF46% API 242000-2016DMF 252000-2016API DMF1 2Chemical Weekly 30%CMO1/2 1/34060% 15%370% API 13 / 43 201714

7、74API688 DMF 26 27CMO40%-60% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Wind Chemical Weekly 28API 1474 688 1193 / 14 / 43 29 30 Clarivate 31 2.3. 2016 3 2016/11 2016/12 2017/10 2016-2020 2018/1 : 1.414 1000 2018/1 2018/4 20186 15 / 43 2019/3 2020 15% 2019/6

8、 VOCs 20193“” 2019 2019579 9 4 2019/3 26 2019/4 2019 50202020 20001000 2019/4 2019/4 22 2019/9 2019 2019579 9 2015506520164176 20172018 282.318.8% 2019262.17.2% 16 / 43 322016 33 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

9、 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wind Wind 342010 35/kg -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Wind Wind 36/kg Wind 17 / 43 2.4. 2016 API20163 FDA 5

10、2016.3.5 2017.8.25 2017100 289 2017.12.22 2019.10.15 DMF 6 2016.8.10 2016134 2017.05.11 2017 52 2017.11.30 2019.07.16 2019 56 2019.11.29 2019 18 / 43 2019 103 121201912 1GMPGSPGMPGSP GMPGSP2019121 MAH 7MAH 2016.5 2017.8 2019.12 2019 MAH MAH MAH 20191229 GY -YD2019-2 2020117 3253%51% 8 2018.11.14 201

11、8.11.15 4+7 114+7 31 2018.12.17 4+7 2019.9.1 25 19 / 43 2019.9.30 2019.12.29 GY-YD2019-2 2020.1.21 20182018102666.5% 63.3% 37 382018 2018 2018 +/ 3. + 1/ 2/ CMO/CDMO 20 / 43 39 3.1. 40 41 21 / 43 42 43 9 3.2. GMP 2019 47.3%28.1%13.4% 22 / 43 10 FDA 2012101DMFANDA FDA DMFANDADMF FDA EIR letter FDADMF

12、 23 cGMP EDQM/EMA EMA EDMFEDQMCEP EDMF CEP CEP PMDA PMDA MFMF MF MFMFGMP 442019 452017 / 23 / 43 3.3. 40%70% “+” “+” 46API 3.4. CMO/CDMO 201011.88201821.8 201010.1%20181.9%8 47 48 0 5 10 15 20 25 20102011201220132014201620172018 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 24 / 43

13、 2017 1345478% CMO/CDMO CMO/CDMO2018CMO/CDMO 2682023CMO/CDMO519 CMO/CDMO 12 2018CMO/CDMO24 202385 492017 50CMO/CDMO Syneos Frost &Sullivan 51CMO/CDMO 52CMO/CDMO 44% 29% 4% 5%5% 4% 3% 6% 41% 25% 5% 7% 6% 5% 4% 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 20112016 Frost &Sullivan Informa API APICMO/CD

14、MO 25 / 43 4. 4.1. - - 2015201934.2% 53 54 Wind Wind 55 56 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2016201720182019 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2016201720182019 Wind Wind 26 / 43 57 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016201720182019 Wind - - - 20132018CAGR10.3%9.0% 58 59 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60

15、 80 100 120 140 160 201320142015201620172018 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 201320142015201620172018 2000 200 20172018 27 / 43 60 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CNKI 20172018 201924.2 3.58:120

16、203 10.6 616 11616 1 105,382 95,000 2 616 15,000 11,415 120,382 106,415 616616900 26161.5 1 2020 22020 34-AA 4/8:12022 510% 6 28 / 43 12 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 29080 33260 39250 41740 44698 14.37% 18.01% 6.34% 7.09% 38.33% 54.76% 52.90% 53.73% 53.08% 46490 50800 66130 68625 71106.3 9.27% 30.1

17、8% 3.77% 3.62% 50.94% 56.11% 57.92% 58.75% 58.31% 24130 28253 35679 41765 48603 17.09% 26.28% 17.06% 16.37% 16.00% 20.00% 23.00% 25.00% 27.00% 16600 20000 22381 26738 38109 20.48% 11.91% 19.47% 42.53% 28.00% 30.00% 30.00% 35.00% 33.30% 116300 132313 163440 178868 202516 13.77% 23.53% 9.44% 13.22% 37

18、.27% 44.11% 45.27% 46.15% 44.93% Wind 2020-202216.3/17.9/20.3 4.05/4.86/5.34 13 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,163 1,354 1,634 1,789 2,025 % 21.42% 16.38% 20.66% 9.50% 13.21% 195 306 405 486 534 % 9.67% 57.06% 32.54% 19.92% 9.82% 0.42 0.66 0.88 1.06 1.16 20.95 16.86 21.09 17.59 16.02 3.65 3.46 4.12

19、 3.34 2.76 ROE 17.45% 20.53% 19.54% 18.98% 17.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 225 273 460 460 460 Wind 29 / 43 4.2. +1242009 11.26%16.42% 10950% 201765%220122014 61 62 Wind Wind 63 64 Wind Wind 201912 GMP6202039 30 / 43 65 Wind 14 t/a 1 140 2 40.57 3 5.46 4 24.74 5 2.5 6 15 7 10 8 50 9 9 10 2 11 1

20、0 12 0.5 13 18 14 0.55 15 0.2 16 1.24 17 0.5 18 40 19 100 20 0.2 21 3 22 0.32 23 0.32 24 0.65 25 0.32 26 0.32 27 0.05 31 / 43 28 0.25 29 30 30 10 31 2 32 2 33 2 34 4 35 10 36 50 37 0.5 38 0.5 39 1 40 0.05 41 0.2 42 0.01 43 0.05 44 0.05 45 0.1 588.15(424.21 662018 67 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10

21、% 12% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 201320142015201620172018 32 / 43 68 69 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2013201420152016201720182019 W

22、ind 70 71 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2013201420152016201720182019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013201420152016201720182019 Wind Wind 1 2 32020 42020Newchem 2021 5 15 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 16.70 17.70 20.36 23.41 4.57% 6.00% 15.00% 15.00% 49.28% 48.00%

23、 49.00% 49.00% 8.47 8.73 9.45 10.23 -1.05% 3.10% 8.21% 8.26% 33 / 43 72.14% 68.96% 68.26% 67.89% 5.60 6.38 7.52 8.58 1.63% 13.93% 17.90% 14.10% 88.75% 88.82% 88.84% 90.00% 6.19 6.42 7.27 9.79 1.81% 3.72% 13.28% 34.57% 49.81% 62.77% 73.55% 80.67% 37.09 39.24 44.60 52.01 2.40% 5.78% 13.68% 16.61% 60.3

24、2% 61.72% 63.80% 65.44% Wind 2020-2022 4.94/6.33/8.03 16 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3,622 3,709 3,924 4,460 5,201 % 26.97% 2.40% 5.81% 13.66% 16.61% 301 410 494 633 803 % 45.85% 36.17% 20.48% 27.94% 26.96% 0.33 0.45 0.54 0.69 0.88 18.64 22.04 28.78 22.50 17.72 2.13 3.07 4.14 3.50 2.92 ROE 11.45%

25、13.95% 14.39% 15.55% 16.49% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 916 916 916 916 916 Wind Newchem 4.3. API /CEP DMF 20122019CAGR12.5%2018/2019 CAGR=9.1%CAGR24.8% CAGR=16.7% 34 / 43 72 73 Wind Wind 74 75 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 20122013201420152016201720182019 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 201220132014201520162017

26、20182019 Wind Wind 1/71/3 API 76 77 37.6% 28.8% 33.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 201320142015201620172018 Newport Premium 35 / 43 78API2017 79CT 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 / 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25

27、000 201320142015201620172018 Newport Premium 80 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 20142015201620172018 Evaluate Pharma 17 X GE 1999 GEInterpharma Imax GE GE 2011 GE GE GE Bracco 2001 BraccoSanochemia BraccoSanochemia Agfa Bracco Tyco 2002 Tyco Tycohexal AG Tyco Bayer 2005 Bayer / Bayer Bayer 2016 Bayer B

28、ayerMarotrast Bayer Bayer 2011 Bayer AgfaJacobsen Bowmed Ibisqus Bayer 36 / 43 Guerbet 2018 Guerbet Guerbet Guerbet Bracco 2012 Bracco Bracco Bracco Bracco Bracco Bracco Bayer Bayer Bayer Bayer GE 2011 GE GE GE FDAEMANMPA IPO XIPO 75.6%201912282035X 1330505 2019116.72 2020.3 81 82IPO 0% 10% 20% 30%

29、40% 50% 60% 70% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 20122013201420152016201720182019 / 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016201720182019 X X Wind Wind 186.72 1 1500 15070 13200 2 3005 19649 17500 3 195 8993 8000 4 1200 11849 5000 5 4250 3500 6 20000 20000 79811 67200 2012 95%513 /

30、 37 / 43 50% 83 84 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 201420152016201720182019 49.7% 15.8% 8.5% 6.3% 19.7% PDB PDB 1IPO2020 2020-202230% 80%100% 2API 3Q3 4 5/ 19 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E ( 45071 55968 68731 83139 24% 23% 21% 21016 24233 32010 34848 15% 32% 9% 32357 42500 53856 65960 31% 2

31、7% 22% 13500 15050 16770 18920 11% 11% 13% API 113835 136249 165209 191911 20% 21% 16% 38 / 43 2630 13240 63031 144284 403% 376% 129% 116465 149489 228240 336195 28% 53% 47% 44% 45% 45% 45% 8018 8500 9000 9000 6% 6% 0% 29% 30% 30% 31% 130885 166180 247999 357482 47% 27% 49% 44% 20202022 16.62/24.80/

32、35.75 2.27/3.62/5.52 20 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 890 1,309 1,662 2,480 3,575 % 25.25% 46.98% 26.97% 49.22% 44.16% 94 170 227 363 553 % 12.70% 81.83% 33.48% 59.79% 52.11% 0.40 0.72 0.97 1.55 2.35 66.17 58.62 62.91 39.37 25.88 6.96 10.03 11.07 8.64 6.48 ROE 10.51% 17.11% 17.59% 21.94% 25.03% 0.00

33、% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 120 168 235 235 235 Wind 4.4. APICDMOFDF 201210.97%22.05% 39 / 43 85 86 Wind Wind 87 88 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 20122013201420152016201720182019 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 20122013201420152016201720182019 Wind 2019CDMO /CDMO7.22 Wind 2019CDMO2.69 CDMO CMO/CDMO1 22019 CDMO+ +

34、CDMO API/20199 25 0.25g 559.541436.9/ ANDA20199 FDA300mgANDA20204 150mgANDAANDA + + / 40 / 43 1 2CDMO2020 3201715%202010% 420182018H1 0.14 2019H1 0.482021 5 21 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 45.37 52.94 61.41 71.24 85.48 26.5% 16.7% 16.0% 16.0% 20.0% 21.6% 23.1% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 7.01 6.29 6.61 7.27 8.36 -3.8% -10.3% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 66.9% 70.2% 72.0% 75.0% 75.0% CDMO 6.64 7.22 8.66 10.83 14.08 -5.2% 8.8% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 33.4% 37.3% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 4.51 4.96 5.45 6.00 6.60 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 80.0% 80.0