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1、 1!#$!%&#$!#$%&中遠海能（中遠海能（600026.SH600026.SH）!#$%&()*+,-./01!#$%&()*+,-./012 2投資要點：投資要點：全球油輪規模最大船東，內外貿攻守兼具。全球油輪規模最大船東，內外貿攻守兼具。公司通過連續收購整合，以油品和LNG為兩大核心的主業布局已初步完成；油運市場步入景氣周期下，公司全船型油輪船隊具備了顯著的向上業績彈性。截至2023年三季報，公司擁有及控制155艘油輪、控制運力2274萬載重噸，油輪規模全球第一。新船供給緊張，環保政策加速老舊船出清。新船供給緊張，環保政策加速老舊船出清。油輪運力增速放緩，船廠油輪訂單歷史低位；歐美

2、加息背景下，造船成本高企，船東造船需求低迷，油輪市場無法及時補充運力。油輪船隊老齡化明顯，15年船齡以上占比為33%，影子船隊持續吸收老舊運力，然而歐盟對此制裁措施頻出，常規市場老齡船出清速度有望加快，短期運力趨緊，運價上漲曲線將更為陡峭。疫后經濟緩慢復蘇，運距拉長及補庫邏輯支撐需求。疫后經濟緩慢復蘇，運距拉長及補庫邏輯支撐需求。碳中和背景下煉廠東移，疊加美國原油出口高位，油輪運距的拉長將有效支撐運輸需求，同時俄烏沖突影響的長期化，對貿易格局的轉變、噸公里需求的提升產生積極影響；全球需求緩慢復蘇，中國疫后出行需求提振明顯，航油需求支撐全年樂觀預期；OECD預測全球石油需求仍在擴大，公司有望持續

3、受益于下游需求的提升。中長期油運供需差反轉，高景氣周期來臨。中長期油運供需差反轉，高景氣周期來臨。展望2023-2025年，我們預測全球原油及成品油海運需求端將分別增長6.6%/5%/1%、12.1%/6.8%/3%;全球原油及成品油船隊有效運力供給端增長率為2.4%/0.6%/-2.1%、1.9%/1.2%/2.8%，供需差維持高位，因此2023-2025年油品海運行業的運輸需求增速將持續大于供給增速，有利于運價彈性的提升。盈利預測與投資建議：我們認為油運供需拐點已至，盈利預測與投資建議：我們認為油運供需拐點已至，步入步入上行周期，行上行周期，行業龍頭及業績彈性明顯的中遠海能業龍頭及業績彈性

4、明顯的中遠海能將在將在上行周期上行周期持續受益持續受益。我們預計公司。我們預計公司20232023-20252025年營業收入為年營業收入為236/261/276236/261/276億元，歸母凈利潤為億元，歸母凈利潤為52/67/7352/67/73億元，按億元，按照照2424年凈資產規模給予其年凈資產規模給予其2.12.1倍市凈率估值，倍市凈率估值，對應目標價對應目標價17.17.3131元，首次覆蓋元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。給予“買入”評級。風風險提示：險提示：全球經濟低迷、主要產油國減產、中美關系及地緣政治風險、環保政策實行力度不及預期。Table_First|Table_Summ

5、ary|Table_Excel1 財務數據和估值財務數據和估值 2021A2021A 2022A2022A 20232023E E 2024E2024E 2025E2025E 營業收入（百萬元）12,699 18,658 23,603 26,094 27,594 增長率（%）-22%47%27%11%6%凈利潤（百萬元）-4,975 1,457 5,238 6,701 7,288 增長率（%）-310%129%259%28%9%EPS（元/股）-1.04 0.31 1.10 1.40 1.53 市盈率（P/E）-13.7 46.8 13.0 10.2 9.4 市凈率（P/B）2.4 2.2 1

6、.9 1.7 1.6 數據來源：公司公告、華福證券研究所 !#$2023%11&15 34345 567896789:2 2()*+,-./012 3 45*+,-.60/.3 Table_First|Table_MarketInfo 789:789:總股本/流通股本（百萬股）4771/3475 總市值/流通市值（百萬元）66075/48126 每股凈資產（元）7.31 資產負債率（%）48.67 一年內最高/最低（元）19.23/10.77 一年內股價相對走勢一年內股價相對走勢 團隊成員團隊成員 ;?!#$%&S0210522050006() ABCDABCD !#$%&()%*+,-./0

7、1234567 !#$!%#$#$%#$%#%!&%#%!&%#%!&%#%!#&%#%!#%#%!#%#%!#%#%!#%#%!#(%#%!#(%#%!#)%#%!#*%#%!#*%#%!#+%#%!#,%#%!#,%#%!&#%#%!&-./012#()*+!#$%&()2 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01!#$!#$BEFGBEFG-.H IJKLMNOPQRSTUVW XYZ _abcUdeMNfghijVklmnUo_pdqrUsthiuvwxyz|vUcfg+Ug#“hi”U S/2%MNfg#hi;0 2.g#hi;.0 0/g#”oT-UzTgU_JUz#sS

8、/2%MNfg”00 0.Ug#”.0.001/2%g#th#*US/2%fgh00/0.Ugh.02020U#*x-H g#UgMNHMU8g#xUS/2%UZZ%#*20.026 U!%#*012 U#g#$%0.0 2-/H g#U$o_sthin&(U8g*)(*+U”,-./U0A123US/2%4567$%V/U0;/0./0/02y89#$:!;H?U0U g#hPQRLSTDEH”,S.%:!;LTU?UfgV#WyX4)g%Y#Z./U4)VIJ_ 0.Uabc$#Udef1ghijsUkYs%lzU#*mnopqyr%sfg”tUog4)uTv 6%!Uwxy/2%”zhi

9、”,o_|#fg_UdsthiWU4)sthi.%2U“/%|meUghin“”wx-*-o_gn&STy_1gJSTy|gs/STySTyMNhiST-45*+45*+-DES7$/.6 3UV 2 66/3UV/2/3U()*1.0.06.0 MUtU?%V-0.VU145*.60/.3U-MNOP+Hag_OHoBL,H,tRLST-()*+!#$%&()3 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 正文目錄正文目錄 1 o_cg#$o_cg#$.6 1.1 gMUH#gMUH#.6 1.2 U“U“.7 1.3 UJTTUJTT.8 2 UTUT.9 2.1#g#xUu#g#

10、xUu.11 2.2 LNG=Umn=Umn.16 3 hi”,abdemnU#thi”,abdemnU#t.16 3.1 _UgOW_UgOW.16 3.2 gU#gU#.17 3.3 dehimnUudehimnUu.18 3.4 o_pdqrUstmnz%o_pdqrUstmnz%.20 3.5 MN+UgThiMN+UgThi.21 3.6 fgg#Hgg#vfgg#Hgg#v.22 3.7%g#hi%g#hi.23 4”,VIJ+UJ”,VIJ+UJ.26 4.1 VIJ+UKgwVIJ+UKgw.26 4.2 ef!aVUz%gsef!aVUz%gs.28 4.3%g#%g#.29

11、 4.4 g#*xg#*x.30 5 SS.31 5.1 a7Sa7S.31 6 P/BA1-A1-.32 7 .32 圖表目錄圖表目錄#$#$1,o%&,o%&.6#$#$2,o%(,o%(.7#$#$3,o%Y%,o%Y%.7#$#$4,o%)*,o%)*2022%.7#$#$5,2017%+%+.8#$#$6,2023%+%+.8#$#$7,2014-2022%o%o%EOE$(3H 3H%).8#$#$8,2014-2022%o%,%o%,(3H 3H%).8#$#$9,%(,%(.9#$#$10,g#%#$H,g#%#$H%.9#$#$11,%7$3H,%7$3H%.10#$#$12

12、,%78 3H,%78 3H%.10#$#$13,a70,a70%.10#$#$14,%0 3H,%0 3H%.10#$#$15,%V 3H,%V 3H%.11#$#$16,%VLt-3H,%VLt-3H%.11#$#$17,%O7.3H,%O7.3H%.11#$#$18,%,%ROEHHROALLROIC%.11#$#$19,#g#$H,#g#$H%.12 ()*+!#$%&()4 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01#$#$20,#g#7$3H,#g#7$3H%.12#$#$21,#g#0 3H,#g#0 3H%.12#$#$22,#g#0,#g#0%.12#$#$23,o%

13、fg#/H,o%fg#/H%.12#$#$24,o%g#/H,o%g#/H%.12#$#$25,g#$H,g#$H%.13#$#$26,g#7$3H,g#7$3H%.13#$#$27,g#0 3H,g#0 3H%.13#$#$28,g#0,g#0%.13#$#$29,o_fgH,o_fgH%.14#$#$30,o_fg1#0 H,o_fg1#0 H%.14#$#$31,o_1|23,o_1|23(45=%45=%,).14#$#$32,2018112020%D_6#$%D_6#$%.15#$#$33,o_W_7fg/H,o_W_7fg/H%.15#$#$34,D_786#O79,:,D_786

14、#O79,:,.15#$#$35,;g#$=H(H,;#$(3H 3H%).16#$#$38,fg#s?,fg#s?/.17#$#$39,EIASg?Sg?/.17#$#$40,_&ABgCD9EH3,_&ABgCD9EH3/.17#$#$41,FGfg#s?,FGfg#s?/.17#$#$42,FG#fgs?,FG#fgs?/.18#$#$43,eFGgsa?,eFGgsa?/.18#$#$44,egHnI,egHnI.18#$#$45,FGg#s?,FGg#s?/.18#$#$46,MNfg#?,MNfg#?/HH%.19#$#$47,2022%MNfg#_Z%MNfg#_Z(%).19#

15、$#$48,g#s?,g#s?/HH%.19#$#$49,2022%MNg#_Z%MNg#_Z(%).19#$#$50,IEASMNghi?I?SMNghi?I?/.20#$#$51,IEASMNghi?SMNghi?/.20#$#$52,IEASSOECD_ghi?_ghi?/.20#$#$53,IEASWSWOECD_ghi?_ghi?/.20#$#$54,ea_JKL9,ea_JKL9.20#$#$55,MNL_g,MNL_gPMIL9L9.20#$#$56,o_,o_PMIL9L9.21#$#$57,o_MNOPQtR,o_MNOPQtR.21#$#$58,M_NS8#.L9,M_NS

16、8#.L9.21#$#$59,M_GTUVL9,M_GTUVL9.21#$#$60,_g,_g .22#$#$61,OECDJfg?U3Jfg?U3/.22#$#$62,_fgs1,_fgs1/.22#$#$63,2022%_fgs1%_fgs1/.22#$#$64,MN|%1,MN|%1/.23#$#$65,MN|%v1,MN|%v1/.23#$#$66,2016-2025MN|%La_|%S?MN|%La_|%S?/.23 ()*+!#$%&()5 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01#$#$67,fgLg#2#,fgLg#2#.23#$#$68,MNfg#hi,MNfg#h

17、i.24#$#$69,MNg#hi,MNg#hi.26#$#$70,gVIJZL,gVIJZL%U=U=.27#$#$71,g#?=,g#?=.27#$#$72,:gIJ*?3,:gIJ*?3.27#$#$73,o_%L9,o_%L9CCI.27#$#$74,gT?=,gT?=.28#$#$75,WfgY?=,WfgY?=.28#$#$76,2022%XY%ZR?Y*1%XY%ZR?Y*1.28#$#$77,aY(,aY(.28#$#$78,fg#h,fg#h.29#$#$79,g#h,g#h.30#$#$80,o%,o%VLCCxx.30#$#$81,a7$L0,a7$L0.31#$#$82

18、,o%$,o%$.32 圖表圖表83：財務預測摘要：財務預測摘要.34 ()*+!#$%&()6 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 2 2.3/456789:5;.3/456789:5;Uo%o%Ucg#$cg#$HH89-89-#$g#$2#$g#$2-#$#$.,o%&,o%&-*+,-./01234#56789.0.0.gMUH#gMUH#-eo%g#$eo%g#$8989#$aU#$aU#LTH TH 8a?H7O“MXX”#|KrsrO7)*/%&UULvg.22(H 6=gU4)g#U MNa.gU MNgoM#?=89 (H6 hrUMUL_ 89#$89 L

19、Z89NOY%U%#HgU-O7x-()*+!#$%&()7 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01.0.0 U“U“-)*%UvguoiuM_Uvo_#.01U/0o_#fo_#$o_#,.%U_J_ o#|MN#U VH.H#Hmc-YNOy 0o#uavU jgBH opH naU vco?Uo“%a#$NOr-#$#$,o%)*,o%)*%-*+,-./.:234#56789#$#$,o%(,o%(-#$#$/,o%Y%,o%Y%-*+,-./.:234#56789;*+?A B CD2EFGHI J K LMNN O P KQRSTUV9-*+,-./.:234#5678

20、9-()*+!#$%&()8 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01.0/.0/UJTTUJTT-o%OU+UHzUVtT;O+c,-o%o%.6.6%.&H&H/%.&TLT+U&TLT+U+T 6%UoT+L5,9/26106 U-./wJuBEJU Z,8 0111 Zt*3T+US8fT/26 3z*./63U-1R.6 uL5,9 110.UZ,8 021-,9 022 UZ,1y-,9oST 2.0 ucyS-Zt*+./3-T+QtUT+QtUtt.%g#tB,-v6H fg*+H ghi(KU#*U.%g22;0H02 3U?0/H/0y.,?;./H.1UTctU

21、+J-#$#$2 2,.6.6%+%+-#$#$,/%+%+-*+,-./.:234#56789;WXYZA?P_ AV9-*+,-./.:234#56789;9WXYZA?AV9#$#$6 6,.%o%o%YXYYXY$“3H 3H”-#$#$1 1,.%o%,%o%,“3H 3H”-()*+!#$%&()9 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01=?ABCDEFGHIJKLM?ABCDEFGHIJKLM;/UfaL;/Uf.6.6%.26.26(g(g././.(NM92NM92(N89.N89.(*/%.6.6(g(g.22.22(N89N89(-#$8rK#$8rKUg#$

22、yg#$y.%g#8#cUaf.%&cMag#_,LH_MwJoU#WU zg#U1#g#tKy*%.&U ZZ Un#7%/&fg*+ghi(U#$(wx.%MNa_fgH g#hiU 8#$L%qk%g&sn&UB#gU M%g2/1 U?206/%)2(gUdBo_hiuwxUznUjY2Ug/11 U?c*06-7$rK7$rKU.%MNghiHZZ:!;#Hg*+H!gL#qf1g#*-gU$*+,-./.:abcd234#56789-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789#$#$,%(,%(-#$#$.,g#%#$,g#%#$HH-*+,-./.:234#56789-*+,-.

23、/.:234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()10 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01%U7$.6 3U?c*02%7$.1 0 3U?z 0U o#g#H g#H 89#$7$Z;.0.H/.06H60.-78rK78rKU%g*H&U78.2 3U?0.o&Z/06U .10.H.606H.0 H 0/Hm/0/L-VrKVrKU.%_g#+zpd8(U1 (O)*0.3Ub+.%V,-01 3U?t%V.0 3U.10 3Ug#vU?(/,.0/-%#$#$.,%7$3H,%7$3H-#$#$.,%78 3H,%78 3H-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789-*

24、+,-./.:abcd234#56789#$#$././,a70,a70-#$#$.,%0 3H,%0 3H-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789-()*+!#$%&()11 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 0.0.#g#xUu#g#xUu-#g#$,-_#g#a#&LgsaU_#g#a#&LgsaU#g#g#ULvgULvg 6 6(H(H .6 6=gU o=gU o 2 2 (ZZZZ HH/(&01H(&01H (23H(23H.(456H(456H2 2(78H(78H1 1(HH./(.HH (!gg ZZ ga

25、7onUogaVn#7gK39U%:I7.Nn;U_gHJL_gh|?AB-#gT2UtTx#gT2UtTxFF.%_g#g#hiNORBL#!;U#*O/%C+TU#g#0D,-.0.3%U e1jKghU g#snIU?y_g?*#qUghiVEUfgHghi;?z/01FH60.Uz#”:!;23U#g%/,U0.2 3U?60.3/%)Bo_ghin&L8G#sU#g0/0 3U?/1.-#$#$.2.2,%V 3H,%V 3H-#$#$.,%VLt-3H,%VLt-3H-*+,-abcd234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789#$#$.6.6,%O7.3H,%O7.3H

26、-#$#$.1.1,%,%XYXYHHXX LL XHZXHZ-*+,-abcd234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()12 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 g#$,-;g#afgHfg_o;g#afgHfg_o;g#$aU n_;g#$aU n_;gULvggULvg 2 21 1(H(H /11=gU o=gU o/(23H(23H.(456H(456H.(78H(78H.(.HH.(!HH (g(go_;g#$U/Uo_;fg#$IJA1oUV4/TV 6UUK1IJv.1%/&-s$g#Ug#atNeU;g#$U/f.6%.01

27、*.1%2 e3AV/LM-#$#$.,#g#$H,#g#$H-#$#$,#g#7$3H,#g#7$3H-*+,-./.:234#56789-*+,-./.:234#56789#$#$.,#g#0 3H,#g#0 3H-#$#$,#g#0,#g#0-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789;?PB AefgThijklmn opqB rs=opq rsV9-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789#$#$/,o%fg#/H,o%fg#/H#$#$,o%g#/,o%g#/HH ()*+!#$%&()13 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01%K ZX?UA 7N8aU?OP:e

28、M7|Og#$hirKUrKgrtv2UD_gWaraX*UH#$hiBEaraX*UH#$hiBEo_g_UC_g_Ud8YWHWkgWarZ98fU b+g1#0%U%o_fg1#0 62e%a6cUD_%aMU AB_,_gaarU D_gr“T%y_ga2U gar*+,-tuvwx./.:234#5678 *+,-tuvwx./.:234#5678#$#$22,g#$H,g#$H-#$#$,g#7$3H,g#7$3H-*+,-./.:234#56789-*+,-./.:234#56789;?P_y?Pz Af|THkl PzzpJ#$#$66,g#0 3H,g#0 3H-#$#$11

29、,g#0,g#0-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789;?P_y?Pz Af|Thijkl P_PpP-*+,-./.:abcd234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()14 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 CHCbU3cy:do_%aCD eSU%o_g 21 U?0UZM_gfUSfgD_fgaaSfgD_fgaa-grKD_|%hi%z%UH#$o;7868#grKD_|%hi%z%UH#$o;7868#3AUfgog#$hi3AUfgog#$hiVS%_|j%Oz%U%H#$ZUZ.1%.1*-%/-D_z klX U1fgt_7JRG9WgU?/JmnA9W

30、_7%o_fgW_7Lbmn,o3ovU.%Lb,/UdcoevU/V.%“”pq.1.UerLfgnc/%Jcfg/Usc,0 U?.0/U D“”:U 9cYt%()U1/%r|fghi-TU;gV rTU;gV r45HhiH|Og45HhiH|Og?|cU#$hiu?|cU#$hiu23Ud;fg#$B|hi23Ud;fg#$B|hi-#$#$/./.,o_1|23,o_1|23“45=%45=%”-!#$%&#()#*+,-./01#!#$%&#()#*+,-./01#2#3456#3478#9:#2;#56#?#2AB:#A#56CD6#34EF#AG:HI;:J#2K#56LM5

31、6#8NLM#2A:#I#-/345678-/9:;ONPQ#AA:#A:#56RSTUV#WXYZ#22B:#9#5+56#E#A:B:HA:J#A2#5+_56#E_#22:#B#1D6#E#A:#AA#56a8TUV#bc#22:#d#56e&TUV#ONe&#A:#AI#5+fQ56#ghfQ#2:B:#G#5+ON56#ONiZ#A:#A9#?AB2:#;#56lmTUV#4nXc#2;:#AB#H,o_fgH-#$#$/,o_fg1#0 H,o_fg1#0 H-*+,-3-x234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()15 *+,-./012345

32、67(),-#$|./01 K#rsD6#4ntu#2d:#Ad#vHONJD6#ONw4#2:HAB:J#2:#56?56#?#2d:#AG#5+xy56#xyz#2:#22#6|Q56#|Q#2B:#A;#56456#44#2:#2A#56#|Q#29:#AK#5+O56#OQ#2:#2I#56TUV#8N#29:#I:#56#E#2:#29#56TUV#2I;:#I2#56ZTUV#XZ#2:#2B#56tX56#tX#2I:#IA#5+b56#bQ#2:#2d#56OQ56#ONOQ#2AGB#II#5+Z56#EZ#2:#2G#56“k56#4nXc#2AB:#!#!#!#!#!*+

33、,-“”234#56789g#$rKUvwx23UhA12yg#$rKUvwx23UhA12yD_1786#$)H H#zrKjtY+Jv,Ut)vwY:!#$.%.&dBzu_;g#$zF.vDe U i+vg):_;g#UO7Rs_#$|#o:#U _mnP_;g#$O7+O7V:#=7#)cU:.(g#UxtNOocK:!#$9:U)*-%U D_U;#$g“4gLfg”.(H.0=U#?02-#$#$/,.1.1 11%D_6#$%D_6#$-#$#$/,o_W_7fg/H,o_W_7fg/H-*+,-u$234#56789;?AV9-*+,-x234#56789#$#$/,D_786

34、#O79,:,D_786#O79,:,-#$#$/2/2,;g#$=H,;U=Umnmn-89-#$#7aOaMao#7_=W-89J%a#$/W;-2o_7_#$WZ89”_ 89 Uao_H 4:FG 89 U=6/(89)*/%#$4A4U#$4A4U8989#$a4r#$a4rTT?HP3A=$Bs#7TT?HP3A=$Bs#7-.%)7-89-#$YU.6%ey:!;=U=89 .%(*%(Uc 89 L Z89 EsUf.0/3*.0 3)*/%U/.-(=-89-VU=2/rhrUS;%)=#7U-89-#-N N OPQRSTUVWXYZF9_OPQRSTUVWXYZF9_ W

35、_UgOW-V_fg(HFGscUMNfgjkV_fg(HFGscUMNfgjkllYH S/%MNg(.0*.0.2 Uo_MNgaaUS/%.U?0ABgD_fgaU)T=T_h-/-&U(zg*UA1gDoz7H%h%y%ZU_yL5gCD293zU)*/%&_&:.6/ECDU-XMYZXMYZ?(Og*UFGST?(Og*UFGSTXMYZ%.&sAO */%.&g*Ub+XMYZ 4)*+,-x.234#56789;?AV9-*+,-u$tux234#56789#$#$/,8 89 9#7#7“(”-#$#$/6/6,8989#$#$“3H 3H”-*+,-./.:./-:abcd

36、234#56789-*+,-./.:234#56789-()*+!#$%&()17 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 c*1 UY%Gc/0:FGfg#s9:jUFG/%/&saO 2 fgwgeW*U)*/%(FGfg#s/Uz/0.U?z.0-/0/0 gU#gU#-#W*?U#A#W*?U#AFGgs_U.%fg2-.UoMNsfg 20/Hg 0.cK_1PghijU%.&2 sUXZ 96Hef_f1#FGfgj#UMNsGA 3WUz4f_UR%“AW*+FGfgUCR#$H”%&2 sUFGgC#UXZ 1?GA*+WUWgHgHjgYW*.3UgWY8g&gH

37、gW*2 3-|1 XZ jghw1UFG?PwgijU1gj*+W_gU%L/%&$g#$#$/1/1,fg#s?,fg#s?-#$#$/,YHYH Sg?Sg?-*+,-Nc234#56789-*+,-234#56789-#$#$,_&ABgCD9E,_&ABgCD9EH3H3-#$#$.,FGfg#s?,FGfg#s?-*+,-234#56789-*+,-9234#56789;*+=9 ()*+!#$%&()18 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 Jn_H$gU 4)FGr1ghnfgs“_”fg%U ghefg:HnC2U/%ZFG#fgsV 1 U$2gh1gsWU

38、NOgs($2gh1gsWUNOgs(-FGfg#s+FGfg#s+UFGts8IUFGts8Ioe Uoe U-eLo(c*Uo_HPv-eLo(c*Uo_HPvrKUghcef(O1gU Vc?+O 1FGgU4)e_|_HoH_BghiUo#ygrKUFGgo_HH4HW*+ghU#YoHon%&sFGfg_U)*/%Uo_ZFG#fgs,yefr_1ghUg#fg+IoA#$hi-/0/0/dehimnUudehimnUu-MNghiklUdMn*d)MNghiklUdMn*d)/%_L8_OPnUo_Ho_OPh%sUMNg#$#$,FG#fgs?,FG#fgs?-#$#$/,eFG

39、gsa,eFGgsa?-*+,-234#567899-*+,-c234#56789#$#$,egHnI,egHnI-#$#$22,FGg#s?,FGg#s?-*+,-d234#56789-*+,-b9c234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()19 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 ah;R2yMNg,3%MNdshi!U#fgLg;?c 60H.0.%VMN;P ZXH WgijcUghin&Udeg*UghiLo_g%c*UMNgmnRLSTU#fgLgA.%;c 02H0-Lejag#Lejag#Ufg#U%MNfg#/22 Uoe_Z 0/Ho_Z/HZ.0H_L8Z

40、 0 yg#U%MNg#6 Uo_Z/0/HeZ 02UWZ 0HZ 102H_Z 10.-WW XYZXYZ _abhimnUu_abhimnUu/%SM:eoOPOW XYZ _Ueu$zUoghiuU%bYd)nqky AYcU XYZ _hiSRyn*d)2HY S/%MNg?U:.0.U.Uoo_K IJKLMNOPQRSTUo-OPjYUe3#$#$,MNfg#?,MNfg#?HH-#$#$66,%MNfg#_Z%MNfg#_Z“”“”-*+,-Nc234#56789-*+,-Nc234#56789-#$#$11,g#s?,g#s?HH-#$#$,%MNg#_Z%MNg#_Z“”“

41、”-*+,-Nc234#56789-*+,-Nc234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()20 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 a_JKL9S&sU L%a6UcU zFOP-vA1F-/0/0 o_pdqrUstmnz%o_pdqrUstmnz%-/%MNghiaIVo_pd,MKqUS%MNghiaIVo_pd,MKqUSHstnU!&hiHstnU!&hi /%o_ghi%o_ghid)!#$Zo_g,;/0/Ud%ZsV_#d.#$#$22,HYHY SMNghi?I?SMNghi?I?-#$#$2.2.,HYHY SMNghi?SMNghi?-*+,-234#56

42、789-*+,-234#56789#$#$22,HYHY SS XYZXYZ _ghi?_ghi?-#$#$2/2/,HYHY SWSW XYZXYZ _ghi?_ghi?-*+,-234#56789-*+,-234#56789-#$#$22,ea_JKL9,ea_JKL9-#$#$2222,MNL_g,MNL_g M!HM!H L9L9-*+,-abcd234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()21 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 tTcUHWg_tLWRstpd,sUMzsthicU&hi/%dpveUo_sthin&uUFTM#$u

43、UY%?T 601Un*.%?T 6.02-&o_FTeUnnH8S/|UM!H L9V&/20 UDcd:?/%#TMMQtP.0 RUY.%#?Tz 02Ud)2_st9:hi”n&U_OPnUstst9:hi”n&U_OPnUstKUgnUo_fgMKn&KUgnUo_fgMKn&-/02/02 MN+UgThiMN+UgThi-fg*+Uhifg*+Uhi%/&_,-_?g*M#q+1e%a*+UM%#q M-0 U);*#q_ M*%2&+2U4)M c*/02.:YMZ-AU M /0 U_%aR1#qDESrKU_#q M URkU4)_#XYZ _#$#$2 2,o_,o_ M

44、!HM!H L9L9-#$#$2626,o_MNOPQtR,o_MNOPQtR-*+,-abcd234#56789-*+,-234#56789-#$#$2121,M_NS8#.L9,M_NS8#.L9-#$#$22,M_GTUVL9,M_GTUVL9-*+,-_ 234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789-()*+!#$%&()22 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 Jg*C+ygrKUg*+%Z+wxy+wxyc*UgLhiQxUc*UgLhiQxU?KUhiUgC?KUhiUgC-/0/0 fgg#fgg#HHgg#vgg#v-h/vUg#hi%fgsah/v

45、Ug#hi%fgsa_H4Ufgo_Ho_a_H4Ufgo_Ho_aU_;U.%_fgsUeUfgsUf.%20.*%/0 U%Z9 /20.6%_fgsZ;02He H.01H-H._#on/UV_ffgV_s_oUMNfg#hi-gog#+Uet,c|%(Ugog#+Uet,c|%(UMN|g%z%)HeH:H|MN|g%z%)HeH:H|G*HooG*Hooo_|g%UZ S#$#$,_g,_g-#$#$.,XYZXYZ JfgJfg?U3?U3-*+,-abcd234#56789-*+,-abcd234#56789#$#$,_fgs1,_fgs1-#$#$/,%_fgs1%_fgs1-

46、*+,-234#56789-*+,-234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()23 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01/%MN|g%z/0*.02/U ooH o_|g%;z 60/H 0 20/U.6H2/.1 do_:g_fgsL#$hiUDE1%MNfg#hitUFGc-.0 FG/2%XMYZ VMNOPn&c3U /.2/2UFGfgs;3A*2%8Y:./|%=U/2%;6.06.0 6.0.-#$#$,MN|%1,MN|%1-#$#$2 2,MN|%v1,MN|%v1-*+,-234#56789-*+,-234#56789-#$#$,.2 2 MN|%La_|MN

47、|%La_|%S%S?-#$#$6 6,fgLg#2#,fgLg#2#-*+,-Nc234#56789-*+,-Nc234#56789 ()*+!#$%&()24 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 0 FG/2%_ABgJUfg-YH-SU;.2.12./UFG/2%g#s;U;/.0/2/-/0 FG/2%FGefUfgcU#*hiUfg;22.2UFG/2%fg#s;U;2/0/220/260y-0 FG/%sMNOPn&UeOPUo_hiun&UzFGfgJ#$U/2%MNfg#;.02HH02-20 FGjteUef_HWHo_fgUFGs_Ufg#Uz|vUFG/2

48、%MNfg#2#;2.2/./2/U?2.02-UDEUDE/2 2%MNfg#;%MNfg#;.66 1.1.?U?U-?z?z-y1fg#$hiy1fg#$hi-.6.6.66.U?z U?z-0 0 22.-#$#$68,MNfg#hi,MNfg#hi 4“?”-76.8 78.0 81.2 82.5 83.5 85.2 X“”-7.6%1.4%4.1%1.6%1.3%2.1%XMYZ fg“?”-27.5 28.3 30.3 29.7 30.1 30.9 X“”-12.2%2.6%7.4%-2.1%1.5%2.5%XMYZ fg“?”-3.8 0.7 2.1-0.6 0.5 0.8 X

49、MYZ fg#s“?”-20.0 20.2 22.3 21.9 22.6 22.0 XMYZ fg#s;-72.6%71.5%71.0%71.2%71.6%71.1%_fg“?”-11.3 11.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 13.0 X“”-8.1%-0.6%5.6%5.6%2.3%1.5%_fg“?”-1.0-0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 _fg#s“?”-3.0 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.7 _fg#s;-26.5%25.8%29.4%31.9%35.0%36.0%FGfg“?”-10.2 10.5 10.7 9.9 9.9 10.4 X“”-8.9%2.6%2.

50、0%-6.7%0.0%5.0%FGfg“?”-1.0 0.3 0.2-0.7 0.0 0.5 FGfg#s“?”-4.9 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 6.0 FGfg#s;-48.1%47.8%46.9%53.3%55.3%57.4%_fg“?”-27.8 28.0 28.3 30.3 30.6 30.8 X“”-1.7%0.7%1.0%7.1%1.0%0.9%_fg“?”-0.5 0.2 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.3 _fg#s“?”-9.2 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 _fg#s;-33.1%31.4%30.8%29.4%29.8%30.0%()*+!#$%&()25 *

51、+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 MNfg#“?”-37.1 36.9 39.5 40.1 41.7 41.9 X“”-7.7%-0.5%7.0%1.5%4.0%0.5%MNfg#MNfg#-“?”-1841.6 1831.7 1960.8 1990.2 2069.8 2081.0 X“”X“”-7.7%-0.5%7.0%2.0%4.0%4.0%MNfg#2#“”-5175.2 5009.5 5011.0 5261.0 5313.3 5339.8 X“”-0.7%-3.2%0.0%5.0%1.0%0.5%MNfg#$hiMNfg#$hi“”-9530.8 9176.0 9825

52、.6 10470.3 10997.4 11112.0 X“”X“”-7.1%-3.7%7.1%6.6%5.0%1.0%*+,-OPECEIAIEAWindClarksons234#5678 1a|%;Lgg#hiUDE1%MNg#hitUFGc-.0 FG/2%MN|%3UdeMNsthi%mnUMN|g 2 1122 2 U?.01.0/.-0 FG/2%_|RU|%sklcUg?OU;.112.1 UFG/2%g#s;U;.0/.06.01-/0 FG/2%|%3AUg;/1/1/66 UFG/2%g#s;U;/0/0.0-0 FG/2%0|(Ug;/UFG/2%g#s;U;020-20

53、FG/2%|g%3Ug;26 26 2 UFG/2%g#s;U;0620160-0 FG/2%so|g%(UeRs%U?Vo_deghiuL*gnkycUg#hiUDEFG/2%MNfg#/2/21 U?.02-60 MNgg#vcUzgeghU:nUo_gse#$UgUg#2#.NUFG/2%MNfg#2#;/2/6 U?10/06.-UDEUDE/2 2%MNg#;%MNg#;.1.1.2.1.1.2.?U?U-?z?z-y1fg#$hiy1fg#$hi ()*+!#$%&()26 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01/6/11/6/11/U?z U?z-.0.01/.0.0

54、1/-#$#$69,MNg#hi,MNg#hi 4“?”-85.8 89.2 91.1 95.7 98.5 96.6 X“”-9.2%4.0%2.2%1.8%1.3%1.0%_g“?”-16.9 17.8 18.7 19.0 18.8 18.6 X“”-12.9%5.4%5.2%1.6%-0.8%-1.1%_g“?”-2.49 0.9 0.9 0.3-0.2-0.2 _g#s“?”-2.28 2.27 2.50 2.35 2.39 2.39 _g#s;-13.6%12.8%13.3%12.3%12.7%12.8%g“?”-2.9 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 X“”-11.4%14.

55、3%9.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%g“?”-0.38 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 g#s“?”-0.95 1.27 1.39 1.35 1.44 1.53 g#s;-32.3%37.8%37.7%36.6%39.1%40.6%0g“?”-1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 X“”-6.8%6.2%4.4%2.4%0.0%15.5%0g“?”-0.13 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0g#s“?”-0.35 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.47 0g#s;-19.0%19.7%19.8%20.0%20.5%22.4%g“?”-5.0 5.5 5.8

56、 5.8 5.8 5.9 X“”-12.3%9.3%4.7%3.0%30.1%0.1%g“?”-0.71 0.47 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.14 g#s“?”-1.19 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.49 1.63 g#s;-23.7%23.3%22.2%22.7%25.8%27.6%_g“?”-59.1 60.6 60.9 65.2 68.2 66.2 X“”-7.8%2.5%0.5%7.0%4.6%-3.0%_g“?”-5.00 1.50 0.33 4.26 3.02-2.04 _g#s“?”-16.08 16.70 17.15 18.10 18.61 18.81 _g#s;

57、-27.2%27.6%28.1%27.8%27.3%28.4%MNg#“?”-20.86 21.90 22.71 23.50 24.35 24.84 X“”-11.2%5.0%3.7%1.5%4.0%2.0%MNg#-“?”-966.5 1011.7 1049.4 1085.7 1128.2 1150.73 X“”-11.0%4.7%3.7%2.0%4.0%2.0%MNg#2#“”-2953.5 3057.4 3091.9 3350.0 3441.7 3476.12 X“”-1.9%3.5%1.1%8.3%2.7%1.0%MNg#$hiMNg#$hi“”-2854.5 3093.2 3244.

58、8 3637.3 3882.8 4000.1 X“”X“”-9.3%8.4%4.9%12.1%6.8%3.0%*+,-OPECEIAIEAWindClarksons234#5678 a a bcQRdefghijkFlmnopqrsbcQRdefghijkFlmnopqrs%zU:g*+%zU:g*+%NO%NOrKUIJ5*+2.U drKU 4):g*+L9.0/GU?/01yZZ:*.0 3(U?.0.U%2ygrKUzU%o_%L9U/%*161 GU?y:U()MNIJ/02%U z 89H j!IJaUgkl%*2%-&RALMNzb+8Ub+g&RALMNzb+8Ub+g:wY+

59、:wY+4)nKV+rvTr“”U JWUK9IJj_fg&U gt#$MiUJ+U,sUnKow#$W=:U*+8%/&sjz,U%g8&U4)_7)f 01*.&/20/U8b+wc-#$#$66,gVIJ,gVIJZZLL U=U=-#$#$6.6.,g#?=,g#?=-*+,-Nc234#56789-*+,-ccbc9234#56789#$#$66,:gIJ*?3,:gIJ*?3-#$#$6/6/,o_%L9,o_%L9ZZHZZH-898:88:98;88;98?:=:=;:=9:=;88:;88;88A;8:8;8:T?=?=-#$#$6262,W,WffgYgY?=?=-*+,-

60、Nc234#56789-*+,-Nc234#56789#$#$6 6,%XY%ZR?Y*1%XY%ZR?Y*1-#$#$6666,aY(,aY(-*+,-LL234#56789-*+,-L234#567898;88?88:888BC9B=C:8B:C:9B:=C;8CDEFGHIJKLMNOPQQ ()*+!#$%&()29 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 0/0/%g#%g#-:;UDES/2%MNfg#hi”0 2.UMNg#hi”.0.01/9:UDESMNfg#”00 0.UMNg#”.0.001U/22%g#t%g#t#$hi%US#$hi%US 22%fgh%f

61、gh00 0/0.0/0.UghUgh.0.0 20202020#*xU#*xUo%|MNgUCBto%|MNgUCBt-#$#$78,fg#h,fg#h 44-2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E RSTUVWWXYZRSTUVWWXYZ VV_ _%9530.8 9176.0 9825.6 10470.3 10997.4 11112.0 ab_ab_%-7.1%-3.7%7.1%6.6%5.0%1.0%UcdeC1Wfghi4_%425.5 432.8 451.5 461.6 463.0 456.2 ab_%3.3%1.7%4.3%2.2%0.3%-1.5%OP

62、QQ%256.2 261.9 273.7 280.4 279.8 274.7 LMN%95.7 97.3 102.8 104.0 105.0 105.7 IJK%73.6 73.6 75.0 77.2 78.2 75.9 jklWfghi4_%16.7 17.2 21.6 10.5 2.9 4.7 ab_%-40.8%3.0%25.6%-51.4%-72.4%62.9%OPQQ%11.3 10.8 12.7 7.0 0.3 0.3 LMN%4.5 3.6 6.6 1.3 1.3 3.9 IJK%0.9 2.8 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.6 mnWfghi4_%2.0 9.4 2.9 0.4

63、1.5 11.5 ab_%0.0%370.0%-69.1%-86.2%275.0%666.7%OPQQ%1.2 4.8 0.9 0.3 0.9 5.4 LMN%0.3 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.3 3.2 IJK%0.5 2.7 0.9 0.0 0.3 2.9 opqrUWfsghi4t%20.2 25.8 21.8 21.8 20.0 21.8 ab_%-11.0%27.7%-15.5%0.0%-8.3%9.0%OPQQ%18.3 20.9 17.9 17.9 16.7 17.3 LMN%1.7 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 IJK%0.2 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 3.0

64、 uvWfghi4_%10.0 9.3 10.8 10.9 11.5 11.8 ab_%16.3%-7.0%16.1%0.9%5.5%2.6%LMN%7.2 6.7 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.6 IJK%2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 TUcdeC1wxWfTUcdeC1wxWf ghi4ghi4_ _%395.3 397.7 418.9 428.9 431.5 422.6 ab_ab_%3.9%0.6%5.3%2.4%0.6%-2.1%OPQQ%237.9 241.0 255.8 262.5 263.1 257.4 LMN%86.8 87.9 92.5 93.7 94.6

65、95.6 IJK%70.6 68.8 70.6 72.7 73.8 69.7 UcyYzUcyYz YZ|YZ|B By|y|_ _%-10.9%-4.3%1.7%4.2%4.4%3.1%()*+!#$%&()30 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01*+,-Clarksons234#5678#$#$79,g#h,g#h 4L|r(mnc3U dg#$V r 45c3AyDES/2%g#$%V/U0/0/02y-/0/2%89#$y 89?U89|89&U hilU DES 89#$%.0.002U /2/3U1-M;60100.3U()*1.0.06.0 Mfn#tYUV1t;

66、-%V-0.0.MM UU 1 1 3 3U1U1 4545*.60.60/./.33 U-U-#$#$82,o%$,o%$././01230123 4 45656 5454()()(*()(,()(-()()(*()(,()(-789:;)(?68A?8 9?8?:;:;8:89 78AB;)-?6:9;:=;8;9?:9A:;A:8?DE:=:;:8?FGHI;)(;?6?;A;=8A;8A:=;:A;:9?*+,-Wind234#5678;?PPPq*+2T9abcd92UV99 7|.MNOP+Ug 89#tOPTYU#*MNOP-vIoUMNOP-v+U%b+#2O+y-ag_OUg

67、#$a#7onU XMYZ|gfU(OU%gy-/oBL,Uo?:;HMN%a*+U%;LnrU1NO?O7BAy-,tRLSTU/%#YY?H L ZHH ()*+!#$%&()33 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 L5U H!X QtqkUAB%RLSTU)ABU%#C-()*+!#$%&()34 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01 圖表圖表83：財務預測摘要：財務預測摘要 Table_Excel2 利潤表利潤表 :ss 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 單位單位:百萬元百萬元 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 94,240

68、4,721 5,219 5,519 HH9 918,658 23,603 26,094 27,594+O9545 675 749 792|915,196 14,254 14,608 15,275 9356 389 398 397 O973 94 101 111 91,278 1,160 1,225 1,269 957 48 49 51 k91,632 1,456 1,811 2,010 9924 951 980 1,009!91,963 2,136 2,538 2,699 6#924 30 34 36$98,383 9,081 10,129 10,676%9908 1,312 1,268 1,

69、272&(99,770 12,701 15,876 17,464 )*+,9-2-15-15-15-.945,783 44,287 43,230 43,767 )*+,9-3-60-55-50/0191,370 1,992 2,797 3,896 .23*4590-1 0-1 67953 45 44 45 (591,063 1,056 1,056 1,143 8973 73 73 73 !59148 148 148 148!992,819 3,163 3,336 3,440 ijij9 92,758 8,117 10,263 11,140 9$959,867 62,262 65,357 68,

70、686 eH91 0 0 0$9 968,250 71,342 75,486 79,362 e:;910 0 0 0?ij?9 92,749 8,117 10,263 11,140+O91,939 2,053 2,094 2,248 89964 2,511 3,175 3,447 A914 5 6 9 BijBij9 91,785 5,605 7,087 7,693 kCD919 32 37 35 E*+59327 368 386 405!9438 438 438 438 FGH./BijFGH./Bij9 91,457 5,238 6,701 7,288!CD92,765 2,781 2,7

71、99 2,816 IJKL90.31 1.10 1.40 1.53 CD$910,591 9,593 9,338 8,793 9 9&=920,747 20,797 20,727 20,807 主要財務比率主要財務比率 D590 0 0 0 9 92022A9 92023E9 92024E9 92025E9 9!9CD93,342 3,342 3,342 3,342|&M|&M9 9 9CD$924,089 24,139 24,069 24,149 H&946.9%26.5%10.6%5.7%CD$CD$9 934,680 33,733 33,408 32,942&9198.6%157.8%2

72、2.3%7.6%FGH./8NO5931,570 35,242 39,325 43,262 FHBij&9129.3%259.4%27.9%8.8%E*592,000 2,367 2,753 3,159 PiMPiM9 9 8NO5$8NO5$9 933,570 37,610 42,078 46,420 hi918.6%39.6%44.0%44.6%CD5CD59 968,250 71,342 75,486 79,362 Bi99.6%23.7%27.2%27.9%9 9 QR94.3%13.9%15.9%15.7%現金流量表現金流量表 QRN97.6%19.4%23.3%24.0%單位單位:

73、百萬元百萬元 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E SDMSDM9 9 TUVTUV9 94,211 7,108 9,107 10,228 CD950.8%47.3%44.3%41.5%V595,293 9,589 10,940 11,489 l90.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 WX9-265 118-65-45 l90.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 TYWX9-164-104-27 8 vMvM9 9 TYWX9197 104 42 156 “Z90.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 !WX9-850-2,600-1,784-1,380 “Z*99 9 10 10(UV(UV9 9-5,1

74、91-3,519-4,332-4,668 “Z*927 31 29 29:;9-6,494-1,791-2,332-4,161 IsLIsL9 9 (9-2,898-2,931-3,175-1,588 590.31 1.10 1.40 1.53 !&494,200 1,203 1,176 1,080 TV90.88 1.49 1.91 2.14 UVUV9 91,518-3,108-4,276-5,260 B96.62 7.39 8.24 9.07 =94,962-1,081-390-637 _*l_*l9 9 iOi:9-950-4,243-4,954-5,237 947 13 10 9 9

75、179 0 0 0 92 2 2 2!WX9-2,673 2,216 1,067 614 L94 2 2 2*+,-./-:34#5678 ()*+!#$%&()35 *+,-./01234567(),-#$|./01;=2;=2 w“”$3”$”D3$-/0/03/033 D2D2”wsD“”tw“”3”$+/0y3/0/033/0333q&!q#$%”/03q&!/0()3*+,-./3012345&6/0iq73/0%”/08q%9:j;/08&?(ABC D3Ej?/0i33FGqHI”JK3(HILM&BNO$3%”PQD3$-/0DyRSTU/033PQV%ABWXAVYZ/0“”

76、w”w/0%7_abcwdefghi/03wj3klmnode/03pqDrs$3tuvwxvsyz&|D3|rlm3iPVi 22 3q3CH.9w/0q3&B3”Bk.yyB+LM“LM”+*/0|W37RS!=2=2 77 J l 6 D 20%DE 9w l 6 D 10%6 20%,l 6 D-10%6 10%,l 6 D-20%6-10%,K l 6 D-20%D B$-l 6 B$/5%DE/l 6 B$/-5%6 5%,l 6 B$/-5%D /0&!)-3 612 (sB$tD353DA D 300 DD 500 scw73at rsrs”EVEV EVj7 1436 MT 20 200120