WBD：英國在線零售的轉折點（英文版）.pdf

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1、The Digital Tipping Point 2019 Retail Report Forewords Executive Summary Introduction The tipping point The digital revolution: past, present and future 1. Customer Journey evolution 2. The evolution of online 3. Importance of age for category penetration 4. Increased pace and spend of online 5. Inc

2、reasing significance of Gen Z and millennials 6. Faster, cheaper in-home deliveries 7. Fewer stores drives consumers online 8. Better connectivity and more powerful devices 9. New retail business models 10. The rise of AI Risks to a digital future Conclusion Contents 1 2 4 6 8 8 12 13 14 16 17 18 19

3、 20 21 22 24 2019 Retail report1 Its no exaggeration to say that the retail industry is undergoing a period of unprecedented change. Despite concurrent waves of political and economic upheaval in our midst, our work with retailers suggest this is a mere distraction from the seismic structural shifts

4、 reshaping the retail landscape. The obliteration of analogue consumerism over the previous decade has been fuelled by the rapid and ongoing transition towards online, the growing importance of experiences and heightened consumer expectations. Cumulatively, these powerful factors have unveiled a ver

5、y disruptive digital age. New and emerging technologies will empower further online growth as artificial intelligence and 5G dovetail to enhance retailers capabilities for speedier and cheaper online fulfilment, including in-home delivery. Meanwhile, innovative new retail business models will emerge

6、. Subscriptions, auto-replenishment and fewer (but more experiential) stores will drive online sales to heights where online will become the largest channel within the next 10 years. Successful retailers have always had to reinvent themselves to stay relevant. However, the pace of change will inevit

7、ably prove too fast for many. While the impact of future technologies and consumer acceptance is highly uncertain, it definitely feels like the digital retail- revolution is only just getting started. Forewords Richard Lim, Retail Economics Gavin Matthews, Head of Retail at law firm Womble Bond Dick

8、inson Online retail is being driven on apace due to a heady combination of factors; early adopters in the retail market who can flex and adapt their business models quickly will stand the best chances of success. However, as retailers leverage new technologies to support rising demand for a seamless

9、 online consumer experience from an increasing number of digital natives, new risks also emerge. Consumers are increasingly conscious of the need to protect personal data and their privacy in order to reduce the risk of fraud, identity theft and misuse of their data. Real damage can be done to a ret

10、ailers brand and reputation with any kind of data breach and the loss of trust that follows can have far reaching consequences for any business and its bottom line. Retailers must prioritise data security or risk losing consumers who already believe that sharing data with companies is far more of a

11、benefit to the company than themselves. Although many currently consider financial rewards or free and discounted products as a fair exchange for their personal data this attitude may harden if consumers do not think retailers are protecting their information adequately. With the world of retail goi

12、ng through such unprecedented change and retailers more exposed than ever with the speed and power of social media, the stakes are high and getting it wrong is not an option. 2019 Retail report2 Executive Summary FACTORS POWERING ONLINE GROWTH Gen Z and millennials will be half of the adult populati

13、on in 10 years Faster, cheaper and in-home deliveries 62% of 16-24 year olds (Gen Z) said that they shop online at least every fortnight (compared with just 29% aged over 65 years), averaging almost three online purchases per month. Top 3 factors which would drive further online growth include: Easi

14、er returns are more important for Gen Z (28%) and millennials (30%) than any other age group. taken from results Millennials spend the highest proportion online, currently averaging 42.32 per online transaction and spending 110.45 online each month. Online growth in the next 10 years 53% of retail s

15、ales will account for 21% 28% 30% Gen Z Millennials 47% 26% 26% Cheaper deliveries Easier returns Faster Delivery all of which are key areas of investment for retailers. 2019 Retail report3 Consumers protecting their data Fewer stores in the future boosts online convenience Over a quarter of respond

16、ents have taken some action to limit the amount of data shared with companies, reaching almost a third for 16-24 year olds. Online accounts for a quarter of shopping occasions of consumers say they will shop less in physical stores in next 12 months 25% 10% Five consecutive years of net closures of

17、retail stores closed closed closed closed closed Most believe businesses benefit the most Two thirds of consumers think that businesses benefited more than consumers in the exchange of personal data. Just 8% of respondents thought that consumers benefited the most with 26% saying that there was an e

18、qual exchange of value. Consumers to demand more in exchange for data Financial rewards, free and discounted products rank most highly for consumer preferences in terms of a data exchange. RISKS TO ONLINE GROWTH 2019 Retail report4 Introduction A new age of retail has emerged over the last decade. T

19、his age is characterised by a richly textured digital landscape, buzzing with new technologies, devices and online communities which has gradually overshadowed analogue consumerism. Seismic shifts have fundamentally changed the way in which consumers research, purchase and consume products from reta

20、ilers of all sizes, types and across all channels. An array of varied touch-points influence, enhance and intelligently nudge shoppers through an ever-expanding number of paths to purchase, from increasingly personalised social media campaigns to stockless stores where merchandise is viewed through

21、augmented reality apps. Successful retailers have always had to reinvent themselves throughout history; the most successful listen to their customers, embrace change and invest wisely for the future. However, the race to digital transformation is occurring at such a pace, many retailers are struggli

22、ng to keep up with disruptive frontrunners. Those retailers enjoying success appear to be those adopting new technologies at pace in order to leverage new opportunities. Nevertheless, new risks are emerging too. Consumers are increasingly conscious, even defensive, over their data protection rights

23、and seek an equitable exchange of value in favour of data relinquishment. With this backdrop, the impact of future technologies and consumer acceptance is highly uncertain. Advancements in technology will power speedier and cheaper online fulfilment, which will increasingly be delivered in-home. Eme

24、rging subscription models, auto- replenishment and the shift towards fewer (but more experiential) stores will facilitate aggressive online migration. The burning question for many retailers is whether they can pivot swiftly enough while swimming against unpredictable tides of digitisation. Retailer

25、s must embrace change, have a unique proposition and continue to innovate in order to survive. With digital natives expected to form the majority of the adult population in the next ten years, we forecast that online will account for more than 50% of all retail sales by 2028. This report unearths un

26、ique insights concerning the causative forces driving the digital customer journey and reveals stark differences across consumer segments. The digital retail revolution is only just getting started, but ultimately a tipping point will emerge. 2019 Retail report5 2019 Retail report6 The tipping point

27、: The majority of retail spending to be online within 10 years. Todays customer journey is truly unrecognisable from the analogue path observed just a decade ago. In the next 10 years, we expect to see the rate of change accelerate as innovative technology shifts the balance of power in favour of th

28、e consumer. Powered by technology, changes in the property market, improvements in connectivity, new business models and generational shifts, the physical and online channels will meld together, but online will drive the majority of retail sales within the next 10 years. This will create significant

29、 challenges for the retail industry. The role of the store will evolve from mere product distribution hubs to meaningful customer experience environments, offering discovery, entertainment and escapism. The consumer experience will be embroidered with digital touchpoints that distort the boundaries

30、between whats physical and digital. Nevertheless, online will become the main driving force behind retail sales. We forecast that online sales will overtake store-based sales within 8-10 years, with online accounting for 53% of total retail sales by 2028. 2019 Retail report7 % of retail spending onl

31、ine 20.0% 40.0% 10.0% 30.0% 50.0% Various push and pull factors operate throughout our extrapolated timeline, each wielding both predicable and unpredictable impacts upon our assumptions and overall estimate. Nonetheless, from the myriad of issues influencing our headline forecast, our research iden

32、tifies 10 principal reasons why this is so: 1 The customer journey evolution 2 The evolution of online spend 3 Importance of age for category penetration 4 Increased pace and spend of online 5 Increasing significance of Gen Z and millennials 6 Faster, cheaper, in-home deliveries 7 Fewer stores drive

33、s consumers online 8 Better connectivity and more powerful devices 9 New retail business models 10 The rise of AI The main body of our research focusses on each reason in turn, presenting proprietary data where appropriate, supported by analysis to provide a holistic understanding of our headline fo

34、recast. Source: Retail Economics Figure 1: Online expected to account for 50% of retail spending within 10 years 19.2% 33.8% 53.0% 202420192028 60.0% 0.0% 2019 Retail report8 The digital revolution: Past, present and future As part of a necessary framework to explain the projected future impact of o

35、nline; from our 10 key reasons, the first four touch upon past and present factors providing historical context. This is followed by six subsequent reasons which focus more on future impacts. Source: Retail Economics Figure 2: The retail customer journey Consumer side Stage 1 Awareness Stage 2 Resea

36、rch Stage 3 Purchase Stage 4 Delivery Stage 5 Returns Virtual assistants Augmented reality Personalisation Recommendations Cashless payment Biometrics Autonomous vehicles In-home delivery Chatbots AI automation The impact of digital technology has irreversibly changed the way we shop. The explosion

37、of consumer choice is predicated on: the penetration of broadband, improved connectivity, more powerful devices, the emergence of new services and the vast investment in digital platforms. It has clearly affected how shoppers research, communicate, consume content, seek information and purchase prod

38、ucts throughout the customer journey. Meanwhile, both physical and digital experiences have become of utmost importance to consumers whose expectations are more demanding than ever. Reason 1: Customer journey evolution 2019 Retail report9 1 OFCOM 2 Hitwise The growing impact of the smartphone cannot

39、 be understated. Following the launch of the first iPhone in 2008, it took less than 10 years for the majority of time consumers spent online to occur on mobile devices (62%1). In March 2019, 55%2 of visits to retailer websites were on smartphones, with categories such as Health and Beauty seeing th

40、is proportion exceed two in every three visits. Almost half of consumers suggested that smartphones are the most important device to connect to the internet, this figure rising to 72% for those aged between 16-34. These shifts have torn apart the analogue customer journey and replaced it with an alm

41、ost endless array of digital and physical alternatives. Our digitally-integrated lives mean that competition for shoppers attentions has become much more fiercely contested; giving rise to the attention economy. Retailers compete with a digital kaleidoscope of other distractions, thus intensely focu

42、s on reducing friction throughout the customer journey. The emerging challenge is to connect with customers in the right way. This means in the right manner, with the right content, on the right device, at the right time in the moments that matter most. Moments of inspiration, moments of desire and

43、moments of action. New technologies have helped to enable smoother and speedier transactions, but consumer preferences have become much more fragmented as the range of available options have exploded. One reason for this fragmentation is that consumers are now exposed to more influences for inspirat

44、ion (e.g social media, celebrity endorsement, online communities, bloggers and influencers who spot new products and trends). For Gen Z and millennials, this occurs most frequently on smartphones. “ it took less than 10 years for the majority of time consumers spent online to occur on mobile devices

45、 (62%).” 2019 Retail report10 Source: Retail Economics Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding Desktop/laptopSmartphoneTablet Figure 3: The digital customer journey 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 6

46、5+ 16-24 Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 0%30%80%70%10%40%90%20%60%50%100% 365311 454114 582716 721018 80813 84313 484111 493515 642214 74917 80613 85212 474737371515 533116 642115 75916 83512 85312 236512 365014 444511 533512 642610 721414 573212 553015 671914 79813 83610 86411 Awareness Research P

47、urchase Delivery Returns 2019 Retail report11 Our research revealed that the majority (53%) of younger shoppers (aged 16-24) think that smartphones are the most useful device when making them aware of new products and brands. This is in stark contrast to consumers aged 65 and over, of whom only 3% a

48、greed with their younger counterparts. Such differences are partially driven by variance in smartphone ownership, but younger shoppers spend significantly more time on smartphones than any other age group. On average, 18-24 year old females spent 3hrs 40 minutes per day on their smartphones, more th

49、an twice the duration of men aged over 55 (01:42mins) . This state of near constant connectivity has occurred at an exceptional pace, with significant consequences to physical destinations throughout the UK; arguably leading to lower levels of footfall across high streets, retail parks and particularly shopping centres. Primary locations in large city centres and key regions continue to deliver sustainable levels of footfall, but many secondary locations that are burdened with excess capacity and