麥肯錫（McKinsey）：2020年度全球時尚業態報告（英文版）(108頁).pdf

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1、The State of Fashion 2020 2 The State of Fashion 2020 The State of Fashion 2020 4 The State of Fashion 2020 CONTENTS Executive Summary 1011 Industry Outlook 1215 Global Economy 1831 01: On High Alert 19 02: Beyond China 23 Southeast Asia: A Region of Nuanced Opportunity 26 Russia: Signs of Resurgenc

2、e in a Polarised Market 28 The GCC: A Region in Transition 30 Consumer Shifts 3259 03: Next Gen Social 33 Want to See the Future of Social Media? Look to Asia. 37 04: In The Neighbourhood 43 Executive Interview: Pete Nordstrom 46 Unlocking the Power of Stores 50 05: Sustainability First 52 The Futur

3、e of Upcycling: From Rags to Riches 56 Fashion System 6087 06: Materials Revolution 61 Fashions Biological Revolution 64 07: Inclusive Culture 66 Executive Interview: Annie Wu 70 08: Cross-Border Challengers 73 Executive Interview: Wang Mingqiang 76 09: Unconventional Conventions 79 Executive Interv

4、iew: Raffaello Napoleone 82 10: Digital Recalibration 85 McKinsey Global Fashion Index 8899 Glossary and Detailed Infographics 100 End Notes 102 MGFI GLOBAL ECONOMY CONSUMER SHIFTS FASHION SYSTEM 6 The State of Fashion 2020 7 For the fourth year in a row, The Business of Fashion and McKinsey what do

5、 they see as the biggest challenges facing the industry going forwards; and what do they consider to be the biggest opportunities for next year? Their answers reveal some consistent themes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, concern about the global economy was both a key topic from last years themes and ranke

6、d second and third in the challenges facing the industry next year. Beyond the economic context, the digitally-focused themes “Digital Landgrab” and “Now Or Never” both resonated most with global industry leaders there is no doubt that digital remains at the forefront of executives minds. The word i

7、tself was the fourth most popular to describe the industry, while digitisation was listed as one of the top three opportunities. For the first time, sustainability topped the list of the biggest challenges facing the industry, and it was also named the biggest opportunity; the rise of Extinction Reb

8、ellion and the demon- strated ability of Greta Thunberg to mobilise her generation make this ever-more relevant. While the sustainability-related theme, “End of Ownership,” was seen by our respondents overall as less salient, we believe it may not yet have reached critical mass and will continue to

9、rise in importance. Indeed, the theme is becoming increasingly dynamic as fashion players at the forefront experiment with opportunities to prolong the lifespan of clothes we expect more to follow suit. Last year we predicted a “unicorn” in this space in fact, Rent the Runway and StockX both duly to

10、pped billion dollar valuations earlier this year, joining The RealReal, which in turn went public in 2019. The shift from a focus on generating value for shareholders to companies becoming purpose-led more broadly is reflected in the importance attached in part to last years “Getting Woke” theme, wh

11、ich suggested that consumer demand for “wokewear” would have a major impact on fashion players. Alongside sustainability and digitisation, the third major opportunity for the industry next year, as cited by our survey respondents, was innovation. No wonder then, given the investment needed to meet t

12、hese challenges, that small and medium-sized players are particularly nervous about what lies ahead. This is particularly acute in luxury, where the worlds biggest groups continue to increase their market share. Our ten defining themes for 2020 are a sharp evolution from previous years, with the ris

13、ks closer at hand and more severe. What is clear is that setting a course through the turbulence ahead, now more than ever, requires companies to be attuned to their environment and agile in their responses. While the winners at the top maintain their industry dominance, the rest will have to work e

14、ven harder to keep pace. What is clear is that setting a course through the turbulence ahead, now more than ever, requires companies to be attuned to their environment and agile in their responses. Industry Outlook 15 16 The State of Fashion 2020 01. On High Alert Continued caution is advised for th

15、e year ahead as mounting underlying turmoil could disrupt relations among both developed and emerging market economies. Indicators of recession risk are spurring companies across industries to build a resiliency playbook and plan for other macro risks such as geopolitical instability and the inflamm

16、ation of trade tensions. 02. Beyond China China will continue to provide exciting opportunities and play a leading role in the global fashion industry, but the colossal market is proving harder to crack than brands anticipated. As some successful players become over-reliant on China and others strug

17、gle, companies should consider spreading their risk by expanding to other high-growth geographies. 04. In the Neighbourhood Consumer demand for convenience and immediacy is prompting retailers to complement existing brick-and- mortar networks with smaller format stores that meet customers wherever t

18、hey are and reduce friction in the customer journey. The winning formula will feature in-store experiences and localised assortments in neighbourhoods and suburbs beyond the main shopping thoroughfares. 03. Next Gen Social As traditional engagement models struggle on established social media platfor

19、ms, fashion players will need to rethink their strategy and find ways to maximise their return on marketing spend. Attention-grabbing content will be key, deployed on the right platform for each market, using persuasive calls-to- action and, wherever possible, a seamless link to checkout. 05. Sustai

20、nability First The global fashion industry is extremely energy-consuming, polluting and wasteful. Despite some modest progress, fashion hasnt yet taken its environmental responsibilities seriously enough. Next year, fashion players need to swap platitudes and promotional noise for meaningful action

21、and regulatory compliance while facing up to consumer demand for transformational change. GLOBAL ECONOMY The percentage of survey respondents that expect global economic conditions to improve in the next year has fallen from 49 percent for 2019 to 9 percent for 2020 More than half of fashion executi

22、ves believe a “localised brick-and- mortar-experience” will be a top theme in the coming year More than two-thirds of fashion players believe “increased exploration of spend on new media platforms vs. traditional platforms” will be a top theme in the coming year The population of consumers aged 30 o

23、r below in five identified exciting markets outside of China will grow to be more than double that of China by 2025 Survey respondents stated that “sustainability” will be both the single biggest challenge and the single biggest opportunity for the industry in 2020 55% The State of Fashion 2020 CONS

24、UMER SHIFTS 49 201920202025 Forecast 9 2.3x 70 % 17 The State of Fashion 2020 08. Cross-Border Challengers Established fashion brands and retailers will face growing competition from new Asian challengers, as manufacturers and SMEs step out of their traditional roles and sell directly to global cons

25、umers. Expect greater competition from hitherto unknown players in the Asian supply chain who design popular items to sell at affordable prices using cross- border e-commerce platforms. 09. Unconventional Conventions Traditional trade shows must respond to the increase of direct-to-consumer activity

26、, shorter fashion cycles and digitisation by embracing new roles and fine-tuning their target audience. In a bid to differentiate themselves or even just to survive more of these events will add B2C attractions or launch new services and experiences to improve relationships with their traditional B2

27、B audience. 10. Digital Recalibration Valuations of digital fashion players have reached dizzying levels and, despite a slew of high-profile IPOs and private firms achieving unicorn status, investor sentiment is taking a turn for the worse. Investor apprehension is growing over the path to profitabi

28、lity for some digital players, from online pure play retailers and marketplaces, to direct-to-consumer brands and other digital-first business models. 06. Materials Revolution Fashion brands are exploring alternatives to todays standard materials, with key players focused on more sustainable substit

29、utes that include recently rediscovered and re-engineered old favourites as well as high-tech materials that deliver on aesthetics and function. We expect R LVMH saw “unheard of growth rates” in 2019, while in February, Kering defied market concerns of a China slowdown in luxury, with Jean-Marc Dupl

30、aix, the groups financial director, high- lighting the “dynamic” sales from their Chinese clientele.14 15 Other international brands also continue to perform well Lululemon grew China revenues by 68 percent in the second quarter of 2019, while Nike and Uniqlo reported strong demand.16 Mass-market pl

31、ayers have also prioritised China as a core part of their business models; China now accounts for 5 percent of H at nearly 270 million people, Indonesia is the fourth largest country in the world by population.27 Vietnam and the Philippines are seeing rapid GDP growth. Across Southeast Asia, the med

32、ian age is just 29, against 37 in China, high- lighting the potential for growth as large numbers of young people enter the workforce each year.28 As in China, demand is being driven by digitally native consumers, excited by the possibility of creativity and self-expression. It is worth high- lighti

33、ng that these countries are highly diverse; some consumers in the Philippines have a high affinity for western fashion trends, while Indonesia is due to be the largest modest fashion market in the world. Given the wide spectrum of taste within each country and the differences in regulation between c

34、ountries, each of these markets alone can lend themselves as part of a considered expansion strategy for success at scale. Equally, brands can explore a regional approach to establish a toehold and gain from the regional economy of scale. Russia is an interesting proposition; distracted by headlines

35、 about geopolitics in recent years, the countrys fashion sector has remained largely ignored by international fashion media. Yet Russias clothing market is worth close to $30 billion annually and is the ninth largest in the world, according to data from McKinsey FashionScope. Despite recent economic

36、 slowdown in the country, the luxury market is showing new signs of stabilisation. In 2018, LVMH, Dior and Tiffany all reported the highest sales in the region since 2014.29 An increasingly budget-conscious middle class is creating new opportunities for price competitive players. Russians have embra

37、ced e-commerce too, which grew at an impressive 26 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2019.30 The attractiveness of the country is also being boosted by growing numbers of Chinese tourists, who are expected to spend US $1.1 billion in Russia in 2019.31 Elsewhere, Brazil has been overlooked by

38、 many in recent years, amid see-sawing economic growth in the worlds sixth most populous Global Economy Indonesia is due to be the largest modest fashion market in the world. 25 country.32 Still, McKinseys 2019 Global Sentiment Survey highlights increased confidence among Brazilian consumers. Tariff

39、s are a challenge Brazil has 23.3 percent tariffs for textiles, according to the World Trade Organisation, but there are still opportunities.33 “More and more international brands are looking to enter Brazil,” says Christoph Barchewitz, co-chief executive of emerging markets e-commerce platform Glob

40、al Fashion Group, which operates the Latin American fashion e-commerce site Dafiti. “We recently supported Ralph Lauren and Banana Republic launching digitally into the market, and are speaking to others.” Finally, the Middle East still has potential, despite being an already well-established fashio

41、n market with a strong mall culture. While the Gulf countries are far smaller than China in terms of population size, the propensity of its shoppers to spend big is what gives the region an outsized role among international markets. In fact, the average consumer in the UAE and Saudi Arabia respec- t

42、ively spends over 6 times and 2 times as much on fashion as the average consumer in China.34 Some 99 percent of the UAE population uses social media, underscoring the presence of a connected, aspirational population craving style inspiration and global fashion. The model in the Middle East is differ

43、ent given historical restrictions on foreign ownership: international fashion players habitually partner with established and tried-and- tested local players, the likes of whom have worked with brands from Louis Vuitton to H the number of social media users in the region grew from 360 million to 402

44、 million in just a year.37 With young people spending increasing amounts of time online, e-commerce is also growing, albeit from a relatively low base. Within the fashion sector, just 6 percent of 2018 retail spend in the region was via e-commerce, as opposed to Chinas near-32 percent.38 Still, the

45、three largest e-commerce players in the region Lazada, Shopee and Tokopedia together saw their gross merchandise value multiply seven times between 2015 and 2018.39 These players boast international brands from Adidas and Levis, to The Body Shop and Maybelline, echoing Taobaos path in China. While t

46、here are similarities across these Southeast Asian markets that sit within the ASEAN trade bloc and thus operate on principles of intra-regional free trade, there are also significant differences, in part due to regulation and local tastes. Vietnam, for example, recently signed a new trade agreement

47、 (EVFTA) with the EU and boasts the highest levels of foreign direct investment in the region. Thailand is encouraging foreign investment with tax breaks, aiming to take advantage of the recent trade tensions between Southeast Asia: A Region of Nuanced Opportunity The combined population of Southeas

48、t Asia is greater than that of the US. This exciting region, with a fast-growing apparel market, young consumer base and rapidly expanding e-commerce, presents a real opportunity for fashion players. While consumers in the region have enough in common to suggest that brands can develop a regional st

49、rategy that will produce results, there are also notable differences between countries, implying a tailored approach is required for success at scale. by Aimee Kim, Ali Potia and Simon Wintels In-Depth 26 Some 40 percent of the population is under the age of 25, compared with 28 percent in China and 30 percent in the US. 27 China and the US. On the other hand, regulatory difficulties do exist, with the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia requiring by law for foreign entrants to enter through local partners unless they put down substantial capita