麥肯錫：快進的中國：COVID-19如何加速塑造中國經濟的五個主要趨勢（英文版）(21頁).pdf

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1、May 2020 Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Nick Leung, Joe Ngai, Jeongmin Seong, Jonathan Woetzel Over the last few months, COVID-19 has spread across the world, uniting humanity in a shared experience that has highlighted the vulnerability of

2、our societies. As the first country to grapple with the crisis, China has been on the frontlines both of post-COVID-19 economic recovery, and of the societal changes the pandemic has precipitated. Efforts to stabilize the domestic economy are already well underway, and though Chinas first-quarter gr

3、oss domestic product declined 6.8 percent over the previous year, according to government statistics, our simulations suggest that economic activity may have bottomed out in the first quarter.1 As that recovery takes shape, several important shifts in the make-up of Chinas economic landscape have al

4、ready become apparent. COVID-19 has accelerated pre-existing trends, ushering in the arrival of a future we were likely already on track to realize. In this report, we discuss five trends shaping the Chinese economy that have been accelerated, or “fast forwarded,” as a result of the onset of the COV

5、ID-19 crisis (Exhibit 1). 1 Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time, March 2020, safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time Exhibit 1 Five acceleratin

6、g trends in China since COVID-19 Source: McKinsey analysis 2 Declining global exposure Rising importance of domestic markets, technology, and capital. 3 Rising competitive intensity Technology and agility drive winners to capture the lions share of industry value. Observations from China Five accele

7、rating trends in China since COVID-19 1 Digitization Digital tools become increasingly popular solutions, expanding from B2C to B2B. 4 Consumers come of age Consumers (especially the young) are becoming more prudent and health-conscious. 5 Private and social sectors step up The private sector plays

8、a stronger socioeconomic role, while the social sector rises. 2Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Fast forward trend 1: Digitization COVID-19 has not only accelerated digitization in business-to-consumer (B2C) applications and channels, but also

9、 the traditionally less digitized part of the economy, such as areas requiring physical interactions, and business-to-business (B2B) processes. Before COVID-19, China was already a digital leader in consumer-facing areasaccounting for 45 percent of global e-commerce transactions while mobile payment

10、s penetration was three times higher than that of the US. Consumers and businesses in China have accelerated their use of digital technologies as a result of COVID-19. Based on our mobile surveys of Chinese consumers, about 55 percent are likely to continue buying more groceries online after the pea

11、k of the crisis. Nikes first-quarter digital sales in China increased 30 percent on year after the company launched home workouts via its mobile app, while property platform Beike said agent-facilitated property viewings on its virtual reality showroom in February increased by almost 35 times compar

12、ed with the previous month. Working practices also changed significantly: Enterprise communication platform DingTalk almost doubled its monthly active users in a single quarter to 17.7 million. In healthcare, digital interactions acceleratedthe rapid growth of online consultations, partly thanks to

13、a regulatory shift in reimbursement policy, as well as broader virtual interactions between pharmaceutical sales agents and physicians. These changes occurred ahead of wide deployment of 5G technology, which will likely catalyze the use of digital tools. Fast forward trend 2: Declining global exposu

14、re A mix of geopolitical and economic forces was already driving a change in the relationship between China and the world, and COVID-19 appears to be accelerating this trend. Before COVID-19, China had been reducing its relative exposure to the world as the majority of economic growth was generated

15、by domestic consumption, supply chains matured and localized, and its innovation capabilities were enhanced. The US-China trade dispute raised risks and uncertainties, and about 30 to 50 percent of companies surveyed by various institutions in 2019 indicated that they were considering adjusting thei

16、r supply chain strategies by seeking alternative sources or relocating production to other geographies. COVID-19 has intensified the debate, with several governments calling for companies in critical sectors to relocate their operations back to their home countries and announcing financial support p

17、ackages to facilitate this. Twenty percent of companies surveyed by AmCham China believe COVID-19 may accelerate “decoupling”. A paper published in February by the European Union Chamber of Commerce highlighted how diversification is now at the top of the agenda for many European companies in China.

18、 Global trade and investment has slowed sharply, and the movement of people has become highly restricted. Despite these trends, the full picture is more nuanced. Given the size and the growth potential of the Chinese market, investing in a supply chain and innovation footprint to serve China will co

19、ntinue to remain important. And China for its part will continue to require global technology inputs in order to maintain productivity growth. The relationship between China and the world will be a function of the decisions that all parties make over the course of the next several months and years.

20、3Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Fast forward trend 3: Rising competitive intensity Chinas leading companies retain an outsize share of profits and return on investment, but cut-throat competition threatens their position. COVID-19 will raise

21、 competitive intensity, creating even bigger rewards, and risks, for companies in China. In China, the top decile of companies capture about 90 percent of total economic profit, while the ratio is about 70 percent for the rest of the world, according to our analysis of the worlds top 5,000 companies

22、. This leading cohort is comprised of companies that have already digitized and possess highly agile operations, strengths that served them well during the epidemic. For example, Alibabas Freshippo supermarkets surmounted supply constraints and met soaring online orders for fruit. Foxconns agility a

23、llowed it to switch factory operations to mask production, protecting employees, and enabling resumption of production earlier than competitors. Popular short-video platform TikTok announced it was hiring 10,000new employees when the virus hit a peak. At the other end of the spectrum, weaker compani

24、es, particularly SMEs that are not sufficiently agile or digital-savvy, are vulnerable to cashflow issues, unemployment, and business failure. Fast forward trend 4: Consumers come of age Chinas affluent younger generation had never experienced a domestic economic downturn prior to COVID-19. The viru

25、s has forced them to think harder about spending, saving, and trade-offs in purchasing behavior. Attitudes to spending among consumers in their 20s and 30s, traditionally the engine of Chinas consumption growth, have changed markedly in the wake of COVID-19. One survey showed 42 percent of young con

26、sumers intend to save more as a result of the virus. Consumer lending has also declined, while four out of five Chinese consumers intend to purchase more insurance products post-crisis. Savings have also rocketedthe countrys household deposit balance increased by 8 percent over the first quarter to

27、reach 87.8 trillion RMB. Meanwhile, 41 percent of consumers said they planned to increase sources of income through wealth management, investments, and mutual funds. The virus has also forced purchasing trade-offs, with consumers seeking better quality and healthier options: More than 70 percent of

28、respondents in our COVID-19 consumer survey will continue to spend more time and money purchasing safe and eco-friendly products, while three-quarters want to eat more healthily after the crisis. 4Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Fast forward

29、trend 5: Private and social sectors step up During the 2003 SARS outbreak, the government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were the primary actors during the economic recovery. Now, the private sector and leading technology companies are playing a more significant role, making large socioeconomic

30、contributions amid the emergence of powerful social institutions that have donated millions to recovery efforts. Policy debates also indicate COVID-19 might be accelerating long-awaited structural reforms to land, labor, and capital markets. In the wake of the 2003 SARS outbreak, SOEs were the major

31、 driver of Chinas economy, accounting for about 55 percent of Chinas assets, and 45 percent of profits. Today, the private sector contributes close to two-thirds of Chinas economic growth, and 90 percent of new jobs, illustrating a significant shift in the balance of economic power. In the wake of C

32、OVID-19, joint efforts between government and large private companies have played a leading role. For example, Alipay and WeChat supported the Shanghai governments “Suishenma” health QR code launch to help contain the spread of the virus. These actions illustrate the growth of the private sector, it

33、s ability to participate in activities of national importance, and the potential of public-private partnerships. Meanwhile, social institutions including the Bill eMarketer for other countries; literature search; McKinsey analysis Digitization E-commerce as share of total retail value, % Germany US

34、China Online medical consultations, WeDoctor number of registered doctors on their free consultation platform (in K) Virtual property “showrooms”, Beike VR virtual property showing sessions between agents and prospective buyers (in Mn) 1.5 54.7 Apr 15Jan 27 36x 0.3 10.5 Jan 2020Feb 2020 35x 6Fast fo

35、rward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy Chinas digital ecosystem is arguably the most sophisticated in the world, with more than 850 million internet users, and a quarter of the worlds startups valued in excess of a billion dollars. Mobile payment penetrati

36、on is triple that of the United States, while e-commerce accounted for 24 percent of total retail sales in 2019, compared with 9 percent in Germany, and 11 percent in the US. Indeed, China is the worlds largest e-commerce market, accounting for about 45 percent of global retail e-commerce transactio

37、n value in 2018. Prior to COVID-19, the continuous pursuit of innovation by large technology companies and venture-capital investment in key digital technologies,drove the rapid evolution of Chinas digital landscape. The virus outbreak, meanwhile, has driven the emergence of new digital solutions ne

38、cessary for companies and consumers forced to observe physical distancing, driving rapid growth of a “stay-at-home economy”, and transforming consumer and employee behavior in ways that are likely to endure. COVID-19 has accelerated digital developments in three key areas: B2C interactions, particul

39、arly via online channels. Based on a mobile survey of Chinese consumers conducted before, during, and after the peak of the epidemic in China, about 55 percent of consumers are likely to continue buying more groceries online after the peak of the crisis.3 According to our COVID-19 mobile survey, 74

40、percent of Chinese citizens increased their online grocery visit frequency during the epidemic, and 15 percent report that they will increase visits after its peak has passed. B2C companies with established digital solutions were able to take advantage of the shift to digital channels, and outperfor

41、med peers. For example, Nike hosted workouts for housebound consumers on its mobile apps, stoking demand and driving an 80-percent increase in engagement, as well as a more- than-30-percent increase in first-quarter digital sales in China.4 Meanwhile, Lululemon deployed a WeChat marketing strategy t

42、hat increased customer acquisition during the epidemic, leading company management to adopt similar digital engagement models in other regions as a result.5 Automakers have also taken to launching live stream videos on platforms like TikTok, Alibabas Tmall, and their own mobile apps, using the digit

43、al channel to introduce models and features to consumers, field questions, and sell vehicles, which in some cases are then driven directly to consumers homes.6 Since the epidemic began, Taobao has registered 30,000 live-streaming merchant accounts every day, leading to a sevenfold growth in accounts

44、.7 (Exhibit 1) 3 Julien Boudet, Jonathan Gordon, Brian Gregg, Jesko Perrey, and Kelsey Robinson, How marketing leaders can both manage the coronavirus crisis and plan for the future, McKinsey, April, 2020. 4 Jeremy Bowman, 3 Reasons Why Nike Can Overcome the Coronavirus Crisis, Nasdaq, March 29, 202

45、0, 3-reasons-why-nike-can-overcome-the-coronavirus-crisis-2020-03-29. 5 Samantha McDonald, Why Lululemon Is Winning Despite the Coronavirus Crisis, FN, March 27, 2020, business/earnings/lululemon-coronavirus-sales-earnings-q4-2019-1202955393/. 6 Hu Yumo, Automakers go online as COVID-19 hurts sales,

46、 SHINE, February 28, 2020, 7 Alibaba: In February, there were more than 30,000 people opening new stores in Taobao every day, Sina, February 14, 2020, http:/finance. Monthly report of Taobao livestreaming, ChinaZ.com, March 4, 2020, 7Fast forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating 5 key trends shap

47、ing the Chinese economy B2C sectors that traditionally rely on physical interactions. During the lockdown period, companies deployed an array of digital tools to stay connected with customers, even in sectors that traditionally rely on physical interactions. For instance, a leading real estate compa

48、ny launched “virtual showrooms” and online consultations through a dedicated WeChat mini program. In tandem, a dedicated digital salesforce helped deepen relationships with customers, forging connections that will likely outlast the epidemic. Beike, a multi-service property platform, has seen the nu

49、mber of agent-facilitated property viewing sessions on its virtual reality showroom increase by almost 35 times month-on-month in February.8 Traditional face-to-face medical consultations were also digitized. The Ping An Good Doctor medical consultation platform attracted 1.11 billion visits during the lockdown period.9 In the process, its registered user base rose tenfold, and the number of daily medical consultations for new app users was nine times higher than before Chinese New Year.10 Tencent-backed WeDoctor rolled out a free online medical consultatio