德勤：2020年COVID-19流行病對東非經濟的營銷報告（英文版）（35頁）.pdf

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1、Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on East African economies Summary of government intervention measures and Deloitte insights May 2020 Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies Introduction The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is currently causing significant adverse i

2、mpact on the global economy. Governments around the world are implementing various fiscal measures to mitigate the adverse effect and provide relief for businesses and households. Across the Eastern African region, the impacts of COVID-19 are being felt in different ways and the measures taken by th

3、e respective governments have also differed on the areas of focus and comprehensiveness. In this publication, we provide insights on the expected economic impacts of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as well as various measures proposed by their governments to mitigate the impact. Due

4、 to the fast paced nature of this pandemic and the ensuing government measures and economic impact, we have used available data through 08 May 2020 for the purposes of our analysis in this publication. Global Cases The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported to have emerged from Wuhan in China tow

5、ards the end of December 2019, and has since spread across the world, affecting some 210 countries and territories as at the time of writing this report. North and South America Confirmed cases: 1,644,817 Deaths: 97,602 Africa Confirmed cases: 54,130 Deaths: 2,078 Europe Confirmed cases: 1,486,431 D

6、eaths: 148,156 Asia and Oceania Confirmed cases: 621,778 Deaths: 21,225 The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kenya on 13 March 2020. The cases have since escalated to 621 cases, with 29 deaths and 202 recoveries as at 08 May, 2020. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Ethiopia on 13 Marc

7、h 2020. The cases have since escalated to 194 cases, with 4 deaths and 95 recoveries as at 08 May, 2020. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Tanzania on 16 March 2020. The cases have since escalated to 480 cases, with 17 deaths and 167 recoveries as at 29 April, 2020. The first case of COVID-

8、19 was reported in Uganda on 21 March 2020. The cases have since escalated to 101 cases, with 0 deaths, 55 recoveries as at 08 May 2020. Geographical distribution as at 08 May 2020 Statistics last updated on 29 April 2020 following a presidential directive to form a committee to investigate the accu

9、racy of the test results. Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies CountryLockdown statusShare of Global GDP USPartial24.6% ChinaPartial16.4% JapanPartial5.8% GermanyNational4.4% IndiaNational3.7% UKNational3.2% FranceNational3.1% Economic impact of COVID-19 at a glance The

10、 Global lockdown Global GermanyJapanFranceUKUSChina India 2.0% -3.0% 5.8% 4.5% 1.3% -7.2% 0.6% 5.2% -7.0% 1.9% 7.4% 4.2% 9.2% 1.2% 6.1% 0.7% 3.0% -5.2% 2.3% 4.7% -5.9% 1.4% 4.0% -6.5% Real GDP growth in major economies 2019 Growth2021 forecastAdjusted 2020 forecast (With COVID-19) The cumulative los

11、s to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis could be around USD 9tn, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined. More than 170 countries are set to experience a lower GDP per capita compared to their 2019 average values. Global oil prices estimated to decline by 42% in

12、 comparison to the 2019 average price. Equity markets have sold off dramatically with high-yield corporate and emerging market sovereign spreads having widened significantly. Global remittances projected to decline sharply by about 20% in 2020; the sharpest decline in recent history. Remittances to

13、low and middle- income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by 19.7% to USD 445bn. Severity of the impact continues to be witnessed as 30 million Americans fall jobless and apply for unemployment benefits as of 30 April, 2020. Quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing measures which are essent

14、ial in curtailing the virus continue to acutely impede sectors that rely on social interactions (such as travel, hospitality, entertainment, and tourism) with more than half of the worlds population already under some form of lockdown. Source: IMF, World Bank Countries Globally under Lockdown due to

15、 COVID-19 Top Economies under Lockdown National Lockdown Partial Lockdown 39% 11% Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies Impact on global industries Impact on Industries AirlinesConsumer Automotive FSI Hotel and tourism Oil the first time oil prices have ever turned negat

16、ive. In light of the unprecedented depth of the crisis, oil producers in the OPEC+ group agreed to cut output by an initial 9.7 mb/d, effective 1 May in an effort to stabilise the oil market. Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA), World Travel Nairobi metropolitan (with effect from

17、6 April 2020), Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwale counties (with effect from 8 April 2020). Movement has also been banned in and out of Eastleigh area and Old Town area in Mombasa with effect from 06 May 2020 for 15 days. All markets and eateries have been ordered to shut down within those two areas. 11. The

18、 government reopened eateries as from 01 May 2020. All eateries to obtain certification to reopen from public health offices after meeting the guidelines provided by the Health Ministry. 13/03/2020 25/03/2020 06/04/2020 19/03/2020 31/03/2020 12/04/2020 15/03/2020 27/03/2020 08/04/2020 21/03/2020 02/

19、04/2020 14/04/2020 17/03/2020 29/03/2020 10/04/2020 23/03/2020 04/04/2020 16/04/2020 18/04/2020 20/04/2020 28/04/2020 22/04/2020 30/04/2020 24/04/2020 02/05/2020 26/04/2020 04/05/2020 06/05/2020 08/05/2020 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Ministry of Health; Kenya, Europe

20、an Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 08 May 2020 Total confirmed cases Total death cases Please use the link below to access the Deloitte Portal on Governments Tax, Fiscal Disruption in supply chain for key inputs in machinery and chemicals (about 30 percent); Decline in imports from affect

21、ed countries (about 3.1% estimated decline in total import value); A decline in tourism activity (about 20 percent) due to a standstill in the global aviation industry; and A decline in government spending in different sectors due to a USD 658m shortfall in revenue collection in the remaining 3 mont

22、hs to the 2019/20 fiscal year end. Impact on Agricultural Sector Impact on Tourism and hospitality Sector Agriculture solely contributed about 32.4% to Kenyas GDP in 2019. A locust swarm affecting domestic agricultural production will likely hit hard agricultural growth in 2020. Further, weakened gr

23、owth prospects for key trading partners in North America and Europe due to the COVID-19 pandemic is also expected to limit demand for Kenyas exports of coffee and horticultural products over the short term. The Vegetables and fruits markets remain with minimal activities as exporters are shipping on

24、ly 25% to 30% of their normal capacity. Kenyas flower exports have so far recorded a more than 50% drop in exports with indications that production is currently at less than 10% and facing the risk of total collapse. Kenyas tourism industry registered improved performance in 2019 mainly attributed t

25、o growth in aviation, investor confidence and withdrawal of travel advisories. Tourism earnings increased by 3.9% from KES 157.4bn in 2018 to KES 163.6bn in 2019 while the number of international arrivals increased by 1.2% from 2m arrivals in 2018 to 2.1m arrivals in 2019. As such the sector contrib

26、uted to about 8.8% of Kenyas GDP in the same period and over 1.1m jobs to the Kenyan economy. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leisure and conference tourism, both external and domestic face possible collapse owing to travel restrictions which has completely stopped international tourist arrivals, whil

27、e social distancing measures have affected domestic tourism and conferencing. Given the tourism sectors strong linkages with the wider economy, reduced tourist arrivals will impede consumption of various goods and services and the incomes of workers in related sectors. The Kenyan government has set

28、aside KES 500m to help the tourism sector recover post the coronavirus pandemic. Impact on Kenyas economy Impact on Manufacturing Impact on Construction and Real Estate Sectors Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies Manufacturing is one of the Big Four Agenda for the Keny

29、an government and therefore critical for Kenyas economic growth and development. The manufacturing sector contributed about 7.7% to Kenyas GDP in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic presents a mixed impact to the sector with certain subsectors likely to boost production to meet essential goods demand, while

30、 others may suffer depressed demand and production activity. Food and health products manufacturing are likely to stay afloat. Food production will be boosted by persistence of domestic demand for essential food items, while health products manufacturing will benefit from expected expansion in manuf

31、acturing of essential medical and protective equipment to deal with the unfolding pandemic. The construction and real estate sectors combined contribute about 12.4% (USD 11.3bn) to Kenyas GDP. The major interruptions on these sectors include shorter working hours, decline in construction materials d

32、ue to supply disruptions, and lower demand for housing. The public housing project will also be impacted as the government pulls together funds to deal with the scourge and respond to emergency interventions. Further ramifications on the construction and real estate sectors include a decline in proj

33、ect financing as lenders would be uneasy to finance construction projects because of the uncertainty surrounding the completion of projects. Government infrastructural projects are also expected to stall due to a shortfall in revenue collections by USD 658m and as the government expands spending on

34、the health sector to combat the virus. Financial uncertainty is expected to dampen uptake of houses in the real estate sector in 2020. Given that real estate buying is often characterised by speculation, most investors are already counting losses as the COVID-19 pandemic impedes access to credit. Ho

35、using being part of Kenyas Big Four Agenda, the government is expected to extend critical intervention to the sector throughout the pandemic. Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies Impact on the Equity Market Impact on Transport - Aviation Jan 02, 2020 Feb 26, 2020 Jan 20

36、, 2020 Mar 13, 2020 Feb 05,2020 Mar 31, 2020 Jan 10, 2020 Mar 05, 2020 Jan 28, 2020 Mar 23, 2020 Feb 14, 2020 Jan 06, 2020 Feb 28, 2020 Jan 22, 2020 Mar 17, 2020 Feb 07, 2020 Apr 02, 2020 Apr 08, 2020 Apr 16, 2020 Jan 14, 2020 Mar 09, 2020 Jan 30, 2020 Mar 25, 2020 Feb 18, 2020 Jan 08, 2020 Mar 03,

37、2020 Jan 24, 2020 Mar 19, 2020 Feb 12, 2020 Apr 06, 2020 Apr 14, 2020 Apr 20, 2020 Apr 22, 2020 Apr 28, 2020 Apr 24, 2020 Apr 30, 2020 May 04, 2020 May 05, 2020 May 06, 2020 May 07, 2020 May 08, 2020 Jan 16, 2020 Mar 11, 2020 Feb 03, 2020 Mar 27, 2020 Feb 20, 2020 Feb 24, 2020 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,50

38、0 1,000 500 0 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Millions % Change Impact on Kenyas economy Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) 20 Share Index % ChangePrice The Kenyan government temporarily suspended all international flights starting 25 March 2020 until further notice as a preca

39、ution against the deadly COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, Kenya Airways (KQ) has applied for a state bailout to avoid its collapse as aircrafts were grounded and revenue sources cut-off. The suspension of international flights saw the airline send home most of its workers on unpaid leave as from 1 A

40、pril, 2020, the management team taking a 75% pay cut and the CEO getting an 80% pay cut. For the past 3 months (January to March 2020), the airline has experienced 3.5m fewer passengers resulting in a USD 0.73 bn revenue loss, risking 193,300 jobs and USD 1.6 bn in contribution to Kenyas economy. On

41、e job in the airline transport industry supports approximately another 24 jobs in the economy. As such, a collapse of the airline transport industry would translate to significant losses in other sectors of the economy. Kenyas first major economic impact due to COVID-19 was on the stocks market. Tra

42、ding was halted at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) after the NSE 20 index dropped more than 5% with stocks such as Safaricom and KCB declining by 5.4% and 7.0%, respectively on 13 March 2020, the first day a COVID-19 case was reported in the country. As of day close 08 May 2020, the bourse had

43、 fallen even more steeply with the the NSE 20 share index having dropped by 26.05% on a year to date (YTD) basis, as investors, especially foreign ones react to the evolving pandemic. Most investors have since the onset of the pandemic indulged in a net selling position with a preferred option of pu

44、rchasing fixed income securities due to uncertainty in the market. Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on East African Economies Government intervention measures To navigate through the crisis, governments need to provide a bridge to get the private sector to the other side of the pandemic in r

45、easonable shape. Unlike the 2007/2008 financial crisis, the drawback does not originate from the financial crisis and as such, governments would want to put a keen eye on fiscal policies as much as central banks have a great role to play in terms of supporting liquidity. The Kenyan government has pu

46、t in place several fiscal, monetary and institutional policies in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Government has been running a budget deficit of around 7% of GDP which raises concerns around how the country can afford to cut tax earnings without making efforts to cut spending, especia

47、lly the non-essential kind. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a KES 79.3 billion disbursement as part of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to Kenya to help in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. At the start of April 2020, the government also received KES 5.3bn from the World Bank and KES

48、 7.4bn from the Central Bank to help navigate through the COVID-19 storm. The funds can indeed have a significant impact but this will depend on how the funds are spent and on whether the government is able to implement additional, more inclusive measures to counter the effects of COVID-19. The diff

49、erent measures undertaken this far include: Tax Based Measures: Fiscal/Monetary Measures: Reduction of turnover tax from 3% to 1%. 100% Tax Relief for “low income” earners-individuals earning up to KES 24,000 per month. Reduction of the Central Bank Rate from 7.25% to 7.00%. Increased the maximum tenor of repurchase agreements from 28 to 91 days. Temporary suspension of listing with credit reference bureaus for person who default on their loan obligations with effect from 01 April 2020. Reduction of VAT from 1