國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：2020年大封鎖下世界經濟展望（英文版）（177頁）.pdf

《國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：2020年大封鎖下世界經濟展望（英文版）（177頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：2020年大封鎖下世界經濟展望（英文版）（177頁）.pdf（177頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、2020 APR WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND The Great Lockdown 2020 APR WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND The Great Lockdown 2020 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company Cataloging-in

2、-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library Names: International Monetary Fund. Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fu

3、nd, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877. Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online) Subjects: LC

4、SH: Economic developmentPeriodicals. | International economic relations Periodicals. | Debts, ExternalPeriodicals. | Balance of paymentsPeriodicals. | International financePeriodicals. | Economic forecastingPeriodicals. Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-51353-974-4 (English Paper) 978-

5、1-51355-068-8 (English ePub) 978-1-51355-069-5 (English PDF) The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discu

6、ssion of the report on April 7, 2020. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMFs Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2020. World Economic Outlook: The Grea

7、t Lockdown. Washington, DC, April. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publicationsimf.org www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.

8、imf.org International Monetary Fund | April 2020 iii CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions vii Further Information ix Data x Preface xi Foreword xii Executive Summary xiv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Key Considerations for the Forecast 2 COVD-19 Pandemic Will Have a Severe Impact on Glo

9、bal Growth 4 Severe Risks of a Worse Outcome 6 Policy Priorities 10 Scenario Box. Alternative Evolutions in the Fight against COVID-19 15 Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts 17 Chapter 2. Countering Future Recessions In Advanced Economies: Cyclical Policies in an Era of Low

10、Rates and High Debt 27 Introduction 27 Monetary Policy Options When Interest Rates Are Low 30 Fiscal Space, Public Debt, and Low Interest Rates 32 Fiscal Multipliers, by Instrument and Context 34 Enhancing Stabilization with Rules-Based Fiscal Stimulus 37 Summary and Concluding Remarks 41 Box 2.1. C

11、an Negative Policy Rates Stimulate the Economy? 43 Box 2.2. The Persistence and Drivers of the Common Component of Interest RateGrowth Differentials in Advanced Economies 45 References 48 Chapter 3. Dampening Global Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help? 53 Introd

12、uction 53 Can Macroprudential Regulation Dampen the Effects of Global Financial Shocks? 57 Can Macroprudential Regulation Support a More Countercyclical Monetary Policy Response? 63 Are There Side Effects of Macroprudential Regulation on Average Growth or via Cross-Country Spillovers? 65 Conclusion

13、68 Box 3.1. Macroprudential Policies and Credit: A Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Findings 70 Box 3.2. Do Emerging Markets Adjust Macroprudential Regulation in Response to Global Financial Shocks? 72 References 73 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: THE GREAT LOCKDOWN iv International Monetary Fund | April 2020

14、 Chapter 4. The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Migration 77 Introduction 77 Stylized Facts 79 The Drivers of Migration 81 Future Migration Pressures 85 The Impact of Large Immigration Waves 89 Model Simulations 92 Conclusions 94 Box 4.1. Immigration: Labor Market Effects and the Role of Automation

15、96 Box 4.2. Immigration and Wages in Germany 97 Box 4.3. The Impact of Migration from Venezuela on Latin America and the Caribbean 98 References 99 Statistical Appendix 103 Assumptions 103 Whats New 104 Data and Conventions 104 Country Notes 105 Classification of Countries 106 General Features and C

16、omposition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 107 Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2019 108 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 109 Table C. European Union 109 Table D. E

17、merging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 110 Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 111 Table F. Economies with Exceptional Repor

18、ting Periods 113 Table G. Key Data Documentation 114 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 124 List of Tables Output (Tables A1A3) 129 Inflation (Tables A4A6) 134 Current Account Transactions (Tables A7A9) 139 World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 14

19、5 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2019 157 Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 7 Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 20 Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real

20、 GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 21 Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 22 Annex Table 1.1.4. Middle Eastern and Central Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balan

21、ce, and Unemployment 23 Annex Table 1.1.5. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 24 contents International Monetary Fund | April 2020 v Annex Table 1.1.6. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 25 Table 3.1. Robustness to Reverse Causali

22、ty: Dampening Effects on GDP 60 Table 3.2. Robustness to Omitted Variables: Dampening Effects on GDP 60 Table 3.3. Robustness to Reverse Causality: Supporting Countercyclical Monetary Response 64 Table 3.4. Robustness to Omitted Variables: Supporting Countercyclical Monetary Response 65 Figures Figu

23、re 1.1. Commodity Prices 3 Figure 1.2. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions 3 Figure 1.3. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit 4 Figure 1.4. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, September 2019April 2020 4 Figure 1.5. World Growth in GDP per Capita and Recessi

24、ons 6 Figure 1.6. Quarterly World GDP 9 Figure 1.7. G20+: Economic Policy Responses to COVID-19 11 Scenario Figure 1. Alternative Evolutions in the Fight against COVID-19 15 Figure 1.SF.1 Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak 17 Figure 1.SF.2. China Transport Congestion Index 18 Figure 1.SF.3. Commodity M

25、arket Developments 18 Figure 2.1. Monetary and Fiscal Responses to Crises and Recessions in Advanced Economies since 1960 28 Figure 2.2. Policy Rates and Public Debt in Advanced Economies 28 Figure 2.3. Central Bank Balance Sheets 31 Figure 2.4. Sources of Unexpected Changes to Public Debt 33 Figure

26、 2.5. Fiscal Multipliers: One-Year Horizon 35 Figure 2.6. Fiscal Multipliers 36 Figure 2.7. Average Overall Fiscal Balance Change from 2007 to 200810 37 Figure 2.8. Responses of Economic Outcomes to a Negative Demand Shock 38 Figure 2.9. Recession Likelihoods under Alternative Cyclical Policy Tools

27、39 Figure 2.10. Economic Fluctuations under Alternative Spending Instruments for Rules-Based Fiscal Stimulus 40 Figure 2.1.1. Monetary Policy Rates 43 Figure 2.1.2. Loan and Deposit Rates to Nonfinancial Corporations in the Euro Area 44 Figure 2.2.1. Common Component of Interest RateGrowth Different

28、ials 45 Figure 2.2.2. Drivers of the Common Component of Interest RateGrowth Differentials 46 Figure 3.1. Global Financial Conditions and Emerging Markets 55 Figure 3.2. Macroprudential Regulation in Emerging Markets 55 Figure 3.3. GDP Response in Emerging Markets to Global Financial Shocks 58 Figur

29、e 3.4. Symmetric Dampening Effects of Macroprudential Regulation on GDP Growth 61 Figure 3.5. Dampening Effects on GDP Growth, by Categories of Macroprudential Measures 62 Figure 3.6. Dampening Effects of Macroprudential Regulation on Credit and Exchange Rates 62 Figure 3.7. Policy Rate Responses in

30、 Emerging Markets to Global Financial Shocks 64 Figure 3.8. Effects of Macroprudential Regulation on GDP Growth 66 Figure 3.9. Cross-Country Spillovers from Macroprudential Regulation 67 Figure 3.1.1. Average Effects of Macroprudential Tightening on Credit Growth 70 Figure 3.2.1. Global Financial Sh

31、ocks and Changes in Macroprudential Regulation 72 Figure 4.1. Historical Immigrant Share of the US Population 78 Figure 4.2. Total and Share of Refugees among All Immigrants 78 Figure 4.3. Migration Flows between 2010 and 2020 79 Figure 4.4. Stock of Migrants, by Corridors 80 Figure 4.5. Real GDP pe

32、r Capita below $7,000 and Income Gaps 80 Figure 4.6. Cumulative Population Change, by Region Relative to 1990 81 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: THE GREAT LOCKDOWN vi International Monetary Fund | April 2020 Figure 4.7. Refugee Stocks at the End of 2018 82 Figure 4.8. Restrictiveness of Migration Policies 8

33、3 Figure 4.9. Explained and Unexplained Shares of the Variation in Migration 83 Figure 4.10. Income at Origin and Destination and Probability of Emigrating 84 Figure 4.11. Decomposition of Past Migration Flows, 19902015 85 Figure 4.12. Current and Projected Real GDP Per Capita, by Region 86 Figure 4

34、.13. Migration Corridors 86 Figure 4.14. Change in Migrant Pressures Between 2020 and 2050, Baseline Scenario 87 Figure 4.15. Alternative Migration Scenarios 88 Figure 4.16. Episodes of Large Immigration Inflows 89 Figure 4.17. Macroeconomic Effects of Migrant Inflows in Advanced Economies 90 Figure

35、 4.18. Policies and the Effects of Immigration on Employment Growth 91 Figure 4.19. Simulated Stocks of Immigrants 93 Figure 4.20. Macroeconomic Effects of Migration in Recipient Countries 93 Figure 4.1.1. Automation and Labor Market Adjustment 96 Figure 4.3.1. Recent Crises: Main Recipients 98 Inte

36、rnational Monetary Fund | April 2020 vii ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during February 17 to Mar

37、ch 16, 2020, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about

38、fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $35.61 a barrel in 2020 and $37.87 a barrel in 2021 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBO

39、R) on US dollar deposits will average 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.6 percent in 2021; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average 0.4 percent in 2020 and 2021; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield, on average, 0.1 percent in 2020 and 2021. These are, of course, working hy

40、potheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would, in any event, be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 7, 2020. The following conventions are used throughou

41、t the WEO: . . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; between years or months (for example, 201920 or JanuaryJune) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; and / between years or months (for example, 2019/20) to indicate a fis

42、cal or financial year. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to of 1 percentage point). Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that u

43、se fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country. For some countries, the figures for 2019 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outtur

44、ns. Please refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country. What is new in this publication: Due to the high level of uncertainty in curre

45、nt global economic conditions, the April 2020 WEO database and statistical tables contain only these indicators: real GDP growth, consumer price index, current account balance, unemployment, per capita GDP growth, and fiscal balance. Projections for these indicators are provided only through 2021. T

46、he Timorese authorities have revised the compilation methodology of GDP and, under the new classification, oil and gas revenue before September 2019, which was previously classified as export in national accounts, is now classified as primary income. As of February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom is no

47、longer part of the European Union. Data for the United Kingdom are no longer included in the European Union composites. In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply: If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEO database. When countries are not listed alphab

48、etically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: THE GREAT LOCKDOWN viii International Monetary Fund | April 2020 As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do n

49、ot in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and