2020年新型冠狀病毒對新加坡經濟的影響報告（英文版）（9頁）.pdf

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1、FEATURE ARTICLE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE SINGAPORE ECONOMY THE FORECAST FOR SINGAPORES 2020 GDP GROWTH IS DOWNGRADED TO -7% TO -4% THE IMF EXPECTS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY TO CONTRACT BY 3% IN 2020 INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a severe disruption to global economic activity

2、and has led to both demand- and supply-side shocks to the Singapore economy. The impact of COVID-19 on the Singapore economy has been broad and signifi cant, affecting different sectors of the economy to varying degrees. While most sectors are expected to be adversely affected by the COVID-19 outbre

3、ak, there are some bright spots in the economy, including new opportunities that have come with the rise in demand for online sales and services. In the months ahead, MTI will continue to closely monitor developments in the global and Singapore economies as the COVID-19 situation remains fl uid. Glo

4、bally, there continues to be a high degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the outbreak, as well as the trajectory of the recovery in the global economy. ECONOMIC IMPACT CONCLUSION AccommodationAir TransportArts, Entertainment Authors estimates. Compared to the same day in the week of

5、 13 to 19 January 2020. Second, the COVID-19 outbreak has led to a reduction in domestic consumption and travel, which has had a significant impact on consumer-facing sectors such as food services, retail trade and land transport. Using data from the Apple Mobility Trends Report6, we find that mobil

6、ity in the form of driving, public transit and walking has declined since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Singapore Exhibit 6. Subsequent safe distancing measures introduced in March (e.g., closure of entertainment venues such as bars and cinemas) and the Circuit Breaker measures implemented

7、 since 7 April to curb the community transmission of COVID-19 have led to a further drop in mobility. With more people staying home, the Retail Sales Index and the Food & Beverages Sales Index compiled by the Department of Statistics (DOS) fell by 9.6 per cent and 16.4 per cent year-on-year respecti

8、vely in February, before worsening to register declines of 14.1 per cent and 23.6 per cent in March Exhibit 7. Of note, however, is that even though overall retail sales and food & beverage sales fell, there were some areas of retail sales and food services such as sales at grocery stores7 and onlin

9、e sales that continued to do well. In particular, based on data compiled by DOS, online retail sales rose by almost 40 per cent year-on-year in both February and March. This was likely driven by specific retail categories such as computer & telecommunications equipment and furniture & household equi

10、pment, which had seen a significant increase in the proportion of retail sales that took place online.8 Similarly, DOS data showed that online food & beverage sales rose by 41 per cent and 47 per cent year-on-year in February and March respectively. Going forward, the demand for online sales and ser

11、vices is expected to continue to increase as consumption patterns adapt to the COVID-19 situation. This is, in turn, expected to provide opportunities to businesses with e-commerce presence, including those that provide food and grocery deliveries.9 With telecommuting and safe distancing set to beco

12、me the new normal, more businesses are also going online to reach out to their customers, while adopting digital solutions to improve their processes such as e-payment and e-invoicing. -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 24-Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar 6-Apr 13-Apr 20

13、-Apr 27-Apr DrivingPublic TransitWalking Per Cent Change 23 Jan: First confi rmed case of COVID-19 in Singapore 7 Apr: Start of Circuit Breaker 41 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE FIRST QUARTER 2020 FEATURE ARTICLE Third, outward-oriented sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale trade and transportation

14、 & storage have been adversely affected by the fall in external demand and supply chain disruptions. For example, reflecting the weakness in external demand conditions and worsening business sentiments, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has declined sharply since February, weighed down by

15、a fall in new orders Exhibit 8. In addition, sentiment-sensitive sectors such as finance & insurance have experienced greater volatility amidst heightened uncertainty and concerns over the spread of COVID-19. International trade has also been affected by weak global demand and supply chain disruptio

16、ns, and this has in turn contributed to a fall in air and sea cargo handled at our air and sea ports Exhibit 9. Exhibit 8: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Source: Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-

17、19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20 Manufacturing PMINew Orders Sub-index Index Exhibit 7: Retail Sales Volume Index and Food & Beverage Sales Volume Index10 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20 Retail Sales IndexFood & Beverage Sales IndexOnline Retail Sales (f

18、rom Retail Sales Index) Per Cent Change, yoy Source: Department of Statistics 10 Data on online food & beverage sales is not included in the chart. This is because the year-on-year growth rates of online food & beverage sales prior to January 2020 cannot be computed given that data on online food &

19、beverage sales before 2019 is not available. 42 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE FIRST QUARTER 2020 FEATURE ARTICLE Fourth, domestically-oriented sectors such as construction, real estate and other business services sectors have experienced negative spillovers from the slowdown in domestic economic acti

20、vity, as well as weaker sentiments. Reflecting this, certified progress payments, a proxy for nominal construction output, declined by 1.2 per cent year- on-year in March, while residential property transactions plunged by 22 per cent and 57 per cent year-on-year in March and April respectively Exhi

21、bit 10. In the near-term, the construction sector is also expected to be affected by manpower disruptions due to the additional measures implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19 at construction worksites and foreign worker dormitories (e.g., movement restrictions at the foreign worker dormitories)

22、. Exhibit 9: Air and Sea Cargo Volumes11 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20 Total Air Cargo HandledTotal Sea Cargo HandledTotal Container Throughput Per Cent Change , yoy Source: Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore, Changi Airport Group, Maritime and Port

23、Authority of Singapore Exhibit 10: Construction Certified Progress Payments12 and Private Residential Property Transactions Source: Building and Construction Authority, Urban Redevelopment Authority -100 -50 0 50 100 150 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20 Total Certifi

24、 ed Progress PaymentsPrivate Residential Property Transactions (RHS) Per Cent Change , yoy Per Cent Change , yoy 11 Air cargo volumes refer to those handled at Changi Airport only, and exclude passenger baggage, diplomatic cargo and aircraft stores. Sea cargo and container throughput for April 2020

25、are preliminary estimates. 12 Data on certified progress payments for March 2020 are preliminary estimates. 43 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE FIRST QUARTER 2020 FEATURE ARTICLE Fifth, the closure of most workplaces during the Circuit Breaker period has affected firms in most sectors, especially those

26、that cannot operate fully from home. However, this impact should ease over time as more firms are allowed to resume activities with the gradual lifting of the Circuit Breaker measures from 2 June onwards. 3. CONCLUSION In view of the weaker external demand outlook for Singapore and the expected econ

27、omic impact of the domestic measures taken to contain the spread of COVID-19, MTI has further downgraded Singapores GDP growth forecast for 2020 to “-7.0 per cent to -4.0 per cent”, from its earlier forecast of “-4.0 per cent to -1.0 per cent”. While most sectors are expected to be adversely affecte

28、d by the COVID-19 outbreak, there are some bright spots in the economy, including new opportunities that have come with the rise in demand for online sales and services. In the months ahead, MTI will continue to closely monitor developments in the global and Singapore economies as the COVID-19 situa

29、tion remains fluid. Globally, there continues to be a high degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the outbreak, as well as the trajectory of the recovery in the global economy. Domestically, how the Singapore economy performs in the remaining quarters of the year will also depend on t

30、he extent to which we are able to resume economic activities safely and without a resurgence of infections in the community as we exit from the Circuit Breaker period. To this end, it is important for businesses to ensure that safe management practices are implemented at the workplace, and that thei

31、r workers continue to work from home to the maximum extent possible. Similarly, Singaporeans should continue to adhere to the safe distancing measures, including limiting their movements and social interactions as much as possible. The Government has introduced substantial support through three Budg

32、ets (Unity, Resilience and Solidarity) to help businesses and Singaporeans tide through this difficult period, with more support to be announced soon. Contributed by: Christopher Saw, Economist Jonathan Lin, Economist Wong Yu Jie, Economist Economics Division Ministry of Trade and Industry REFERENCE

33、S Lam, Yan Tung. 2016. “Box 1.1: Economic Sentiments in Singapore”, Economic Survey of Singapore Second Quarter 2016. Chia, Keat Loong and Jessica Foo. 2018. “Box 1.1: Recent Trends in Singapore News Economic Sentiments”, Economic Survey of Singapore First Quarter 2018. 44 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE FIRST QUARTER 2020 FEATURE ARTICLE