聯合國：2020年世界經濟形勢與展望年中報告 （英文版）（29頁）.pdf

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1、United Nations New York, 2020 World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2020 World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2020* Against the backdrop of a raging and devastating pandemic, the world economy is pro jected to shrink by 3.2 per cent in 2020. Under the baseline scenario, GDP gr

2、owth in developed countries will plunge to 5.0 per cent in 2020, while output of developing coun- tries will shrink by 0.7 per cent. The projected cumulative output losses during 2020 and 2021nearly $8.5 trillionwill wipe out nearly all output gains of the previous four years. The pandemic has unlea

3、shed a health and economic crisis unprecedented in scope and magnitude. Lockdowns and the closing of national borders enforced by governments have paralyzed economic activities across the board, laying off millions of workers worldwide. Governments across the world are rolling out fiscal stimulus me

4、asuresequivalent overall to roughly 10 per cent of the world GDP to fight the pandemic and minimize the impact of a catastrophic economic downturn. While both new infections and COVID-19-related death have slowed down in recent weeks, uncertainties persist about the future course of the pandemic and

5、 its economic and social consequences. Torn between saving lives and saving the economy, some governments are already beginning to cautiously lift restrictions with a view to jumpstart their economies. The pace and sequence of recovery from the crisis will largely depend on the efficacy of public he

6、alth and fiscal measures, containing the spread of the virus, minimizing risks of reinfection, protecting jobs and income and restoring consumer confidence. Absent quick breakthroughs in vaccine development and treatment, the post COVID-19 world will likely be vastly different. The possibility of a

7、slow recovery and prolonged economic slumpwith rising poverty and inequalitylooms large. A modest rebound mostly recovering lost outputis expected for 2021. Large fiscal deficits and high levels of public debt will pose significant challenges to many developing countries, particularly commodity-depe

8、ndent economies and small island developing States, amid falling trade and tourism revenues and remittances. Stronger development cooperationsupporting efforts to contain the pandemic and extending economic and financial assistance to coun- tries hardest hit by the crisiswill remain critical for acc

9、elerating recovery and putting the world back on the trajectory of sustainable development. Summary * The present document updates World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.20.II.C.1), released in January 2020. i Contents Summary. . i Global macroeconomic t

10、rends . 1 Global overview . 1 Scenarios and regional outlook. 3 Pandemic destroying jobs . 6 Trade in goods and services . 6 Economic pain spreading through global trade networks . 6 A sudden drop in global tourism and travel . 7 Commodity prices in a free fall . 8 Developing countries face mounting

11、 financial constraints . 8 Rapid, bold but uneven policy responses . 10 The world economy after COVID-19: Back to normal or a new normal? . 12 Online economy the new reality? . 13 Developed economies: fiscal consolidation or higher taxes?. 13 Developing countries: a debt crisis, high inflation or bo

12、th? . 14 Rising poverty and inequality . 14 Globalization facing an existential crisis . 15 Stronger international cooperation for avoiding a debt crisis . 16 Regional economic outlook . 17 Developed economies . 17 North America . 17 Japan and developed Asia . 17 Europe. . 17 Economies in transition

13、 . 18 Developing countries . 18 Africa. . 18 East Asia . 19 South Asia . 19 Western Asia . 20 Latin America and the Caribbean . 21 References. . 22 iii Table 1 Growth of world output, 20182021 . 5 Figures 1 World gross product, level and annual changes, 20102021. 1 2 Share of world GDP under lockdow

14、n, by duration . 2 3 Global growth scenarios, 20202021 . 3 4 Contribution of commodity exports, remittances, tourism and travel, and FDI to GDP (20142018 average) . 4 5 Tourisms total contribution to GDP of SIDS . 7 6 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Front Month Futures (daily closing price)

15、. 8 7 Fiscal indicators prior to the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis . 9 8 Interest payments as a share of government revenue . 10 9 Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt, by creditor type . 10 10 Per capita liquidity (broad money), GDP, fixed investment and FDI . 11 11 Povert

16、y projections . 15 Global macroeconomic trends Global overview The COVID-19 pandemic has paralyzed large parts of the global economy, sharply re- stricting economic activities, increasing uncertainties and unleashing a recession unseen since the Great Depression. Global gross domestic product (GDP)

17、is forecast to shrink by 3.2 per cent in 2020, with only a gradual recovery of lost output projected for 2021. Cumulatively, the world economy is expected to lose nearly $8.5 trillion in output in 2020 and 2021 (Figure 1), nearly wiping out the cumulative output gains of the previous four years. Fig

18、ure 1 World gross product, level and annual changes, 20102021 Trillions of constant 2015 US dollars -4.7 -3.6 2.7 2.1 1.91.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.62.5 2.1 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 Net output loss against former baseline (RHS) Net annual output g

19、ain (RHS) Former baseline (WESP 2020) Baseline (WESP 2020 Update) The pandemic has spread to nearly every country in less than three months, killing over 200,000 by end-April 2020. With no effective vaccine and treatment, most countries have relied on social distancing and stay-at-home measures to s

20、low the spread of the virus. Nearly 90 per cent of the world economy came under some form of lock- down measures by mid-April (Figure 2). As many as 100 countries have closed national bordersthe most severe restrictions on movements of people and goods in recorded his- torydisrupting supply and slas

21、hing global demand for goods and services. The demand for oil and other commodities has fallen sharply, as transportation, air travel and manu- facturing have come to a virtual standstill in many economies. While the pandemic spread rapidly in East Asia, Europe and the United States of America, shut

22、ting down economic activities, many developing countries, though not directly hit by the pandemic, are already suffering severe economic pains. Financial markets in developed countries experienced extreme volatility, as un certainties persisted and early efforts to contain the pandemic fell short of

23、 market ex- pec tations. Central banks in developed countries responded with interest rate cuts and asset purchases to inject liquidity, sustain credit flows and stabilize equity and bond Source: UN DESA, based on scenarios produced with the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM). 2World Economic S

24、ituation and Prospects as of mid-2020 prices. Increased risk aversion among investors triggered large capital outflows from many large developing economies, leading to large currency depreciations and tighter credit conditions. Figure 2 Share of world GDP under lockdown, by duration Percentage 10.7

25、38.4 33.2 17.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 No lockdown1-4 weeks5-8 weeksOver 8 weeks The unprecedented and simultaneous shock to global demand and supply have rendered millions unemployed in the span of just a few weeks. Governments in developed economies have rushed to provide some financial relief

26、unemployment benefits, grants and loansto households and businesses most affected by the collapse of economic ac- tivities. Millions in both developed and developing countries face the ominous prospect of falling back into poverty. Declining growth and rising poverty during the crisis and recovery p

27、eriod will likely increase income and wealth inequality, undermine social cohe- sion, and breed further discontent and instability around the world. The current crisis presents difficult choices and trade-offs to policymakers. Seeking to strike a delicate balance between saving lives and saving jobs

28、, Governments are grappling with measures to minimize the economic impacts of the pandemic. Fiscal stimulus measures, while necessary to protect income and wealth and prevent bankrupt- cies, are unlikely to revive aggregate demand, as opportunities to consume many goods and services remain limited. Even with income protection, households are unlikely to be able to enjoy travel, restaurant meals, sporting events and public recreation in the foresee- able future. While this may increase household savings rates, it will do little to stimula