COVID-19對菲律賓業務的影響：企業調查的主要發現 - 亞洲開發銀行（英文版）（127頁）.pdf

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1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AsiAn Development BAnk 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org The COVID-19 Impact on Philippine Business Key Findings from the Enterprise Survey The Asian Development Bank conducted a Philippine enterprise survey during April and May 2020 to

2、gauge the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the business community. This report provides a rich set of initial facts and ideas for the government to develop evidence-based policymaking to support the revival of Philippine enterprises hurt by the pandemic. It also provides survey-

3、based information for current and future analytical use. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members

4、49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. THE COVID-19 IMPACT ON PHILIPPINE BUSINESS KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ENTERPRISE SURVEY JULY 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK THE C

5、OVID-19 IMPACT ON PHILIPPINE BUSINESS KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ENTERPRISE SURVEY JULY 2020 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some ri

6、ghts reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-307-4 (print); 978-92-9262-308-1 (electronic); 978-92-9262-309-8 (ebook) Publication Stock No. SPR200214-2 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR200214-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the

7、 views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or produc

8、ts of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” inthis document, ADB does not int

9、end to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound bytheterm

10、s of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed toanother source, pl

11、ease contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toob

12、tain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. Cover design by Claud

13、ette Rodrigo. Printed on recycled paper iii CONTENTS TABLE AND FIGURES iv FOREWORD v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii 1. METHODOLOGY 1 2. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE ADB PHILIPPINE ENTERPRISE SURVEY 2 A. Data Structure 2 B. Company Profile 2 C. COVID-19 Impact on Business 7 Business Conditions aft

14、er Quarantine Implemented 7 Expected Time Frame for Business Recovery 8 Status of Sales after the ECQ 8 Employment 10 Wage Payments 13 Status of “Work from Home” 14 Enterprise Assistance to Employees during the ECQ 16 Product Supply Chain Bottlenecks 16 Financial Condition of Enterprises after the C

15、OVID-19 Outbreak 17 Funding during the ECQ and Desired Source of Funds for Business 19 Policy Measures Required during and after the COVID-19 Crisis 19 3. POLICY IMPLICATIONS 22 ANNEXES 1 SURVEY DATA TABLES 27 2 SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 99 iv TABLE AND FIGURES Table Survey Comparison between Asian Devel

16、opment Bank and Philippine Statistics Authority 3 Figures 1 Type of Respondent 4 2 Enterprises Surveyed by Firm Size 4 3 Enterprises Surveyed by Sector 5 4 Enterprises Surveyed by Region 5 5 Operating Period 6 6 Share of Female Employees to Total Employment 6 7 Engagement in Export Business 6 8 Enga

17、gement in Import Business 6 9 Business Condition after ECQ 8 10 Enterprises Open but Limited Operations 8 11 Expected Time Frame for Business Recovery after ECQ 9 12 Status of Sales in April versus March 2020 9 13 Full-Time Regular Workers 13 14 Part-Time or Contractual Workers 13 15 Changes in Wage

18、 Payments after the COVID-19 Outbreak 15 16 Workers Able to Work From Home 15 17 Bottlenecks in Supply Chain? 17 18 Any Change in Cost of Supplies/Raw Materials during ECQ? 17 19 Financial Condition after the COVID-19 Outbreak 18 20 Most Significant Financial Problems during the COVID-19 Outbreak 18

19、 21 Funding during the ECQ 20 22 Desired Source of Funds for Business 20 23 Can You Borrow 50,000 within a Week? 20 24 Is It More Difficult to Borrow 50,000 Now than 2019? 20 25 Policy Measures Needed during the COVID-19 Crisis 21 26 Policy Measures Needed after the COVID-19 Crisis 21 v FOREWORD T h

20、e coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has shocked global, regional, and national economies. Peoples lives and economic activities have been strictly limited to safeguard health and control the spread of the virus. Travel bans, temporary closures of schools and businesses, and social distancing have accom

21、panied quarantines. Meanwhile, private sector businesses have cut back production as well as service delivery, and have been forced to temporarily lay off employees. They face a lack of working capital, making it difficult to continue operating. Prolonged containment of COVID-19 increases the risk o

22、f business failure and bankruptcy. In particular, micro, small, and medium-sized firms are at great risk due to abrupt supply chain disruptions and tightened financial conditions. The Philippines acted quickly to combat the virus and ease its impact. It imposed an Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ)

23、 in the National Capital Region and other high-risk regions to stop the spread of COVID-19. Itprovided a comprehensive set of support measures for households and businesses to help navigate the ECQ, such as an emergency subsidy program for Filipino families and wage supplements to employees of small

24、 businesses. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) supports the Philippine COVID-19 response. It approved a $1.5 billion loan including funding for social protection, small business relief assistance, and a $200 million loan to support the Philippine governments effort to provide emergency cash transfers

25、, among others. ADB also offered a $5 million grant to deliver nutritious food baskets to up to 140,000 vulnerable households across Metro Manila, and a $3 million grant to help the government buy emergency medical supplies and set up a new laboratory for COVID-19 testing. To better assess the impac

26、t on business establishments, ADBs Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department conducted an enterprise survey from 28 April to 15 May 2020 in collaboration with the Philippine Department of Finance. The 2,481 enterprises responding to the survey offered a real picture of the severe COVID-1

27、9 impact on Philippine business, the effects of the quarantine and lockdown measures, and what is needed to help the government develop economic bounce-back strategies as the crisis recedes. The report provides a rich set of initial facts and ideas for the government to develop evidence-based policy

28、making to support the revival of Philippine enterprises hurt by the pandemic. It also provides survey-based information for current and future analytical use. We hope this report contributes to the ongoing policy discussions on firm-level support measures needed to reignite the Philippine economy. Y

29、asuyuki Sawada Chief Economist and Director General Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Asian Development Bank vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T he report was prepared by Shigehiro Shinozaki, senior economist, and Paul Vandenberg, senior economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Dep

30、artment (ERCD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The work was supervised by Yasuyuki Sawada, chief economist and ERCD director general; Joseph Ernest Zveglich Jr., deputy chief economist; and Edimon Ginting, deputy director general. The survey coordination with the Philippine Department of Financ

31、e (DOF) was provided by Kelly Bird, country director of ADBs Philippines Country Office (PhCO), and Cristina Lozano. The survey questionnaire was redesigned based on the rapid survey of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises conducted in MarchApril 2020, covering all Philippine enterprises reque

32、sted by the DOF. It benefited from the advice and inputs from Rana Hasan, director of the Economic Analysis and Operational Support Division; DavidAnthony Raitzer; Matthias Helble; Liming Chen; and Eugenia Co Go. The online survey was distributed through ADBs Facebook page assisted by Andrew Perrin

33、and Reah ValerieSy of ADBs Department of Communications and the networks of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, led by Apolinar Aure, chairman of the SME Development Committee; and the Bankers Association of the Philippines, led by Benjamin Castillo, managing director. The survey team i

34、ncluded Shigehiro Shinozaki, team leader; Josephine Penaflor Ferre, ADB consultant; and Chona Plete Guatlo, ADB consultant. Administrative support was provided by Richard Supangan and Maria Frederika Bautista. vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY T he Asian Development Bank conducted a Philippine enterprise survey

35、 from 28 April to 15 May 2020 to gauge the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the business community. Questions focused on production, finance, workforce, supply chains, and other issues. The survey also asked about the support measures needed from government, and the measures ent

36、erprises would take at reopening (e.g., social distancing in theworkplace). Section 1 describes the methodology adopted in this study. Responses were received from 2,481 enterprises, which included micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises as well as large firms. Due to the emergency situation wher

37、e businesses were unexpectedly disrupted but nimble data collection was needednon-standard sampling procedures had to be adopted: the responses, while highly informative, are not based on a random or representative sample. In unweighted survey data, there appears to be overrepresentation from the Na

38、tional Capital Region and underrepresentation from the wholesale and retail trade sector. Section 2 summarizes the key findings from the survey. Survey responses show that quarantine restrictions, which began on 16 March to contain the spread of the virus, had a significant impact on business activi

39、ty. Two-thirds of businesses closed temporarily, with most others (29%) reducing operations. Of those remaining open, most (78%) operated at half capacity or less. Only 4% of the enterprises maintained full operations. Liquidity was a serious concern for most enterprises as working capital became sc

40、arce. One-third of respondents had run out of cash and savings by the time of the survey, while another one-third expected to run out over the next 13 months. Constraints on additional credit were also binding: just over half (53%) could not arrange to borrow 50,000 within a week, if needed. The sit

41、uation and needs assessment questions in our survey revealed that the most pressing payment concern was wages and related social security contributions (37%). In line with this, a wage subsidy was the most frequently requested government support measure (57%). Micro and small enterprises were about

42、10 percentage points more likely to request a wage subsidy than large enterprises. Some 33% of those surveyed availed of the Department of Labor and Employments grant program for workers unable to receive wages (Clarificatory Guidelines on the COVID-19 Adjustment Measures Program). Use of the progra

43、m was higher among small and medium-sized enterprises (38%) than for microenterprises (28%) or large firms (35%). Deferment of tax payments was the second most common policy support desired, cited by 52% of respondents. The third most common request was for low-interest or subsidized loans (36%) fol

44、lowed by tax reductions or credits (35%). Those surveyed were allowed multiple responses. As just a few (14%) of the enterprises in our survey sell products or services via the internet, it was generally difficult for businesses to service customers and generate revenue during quarantine. Better con

45、nection to internet-based viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY business platforms would not only help continue businesses operations currently, but also help prevent adverse impacts from a second wave of infections in the near future. While enterprises are prepared to take required health and safety measures for

46、reopening in general, our survey also identified different challenges to reopening businesses. The most frequently cited challenge after reopening is providing face masks to workers (63%). However, only 17% of enterprises would practice social distancing and create smaller working groups. Regular bo

47、dy temperature checks were planned by 13% of enterprises. Measures least likely to be used were contact tracing (6%) and canteen rationing (less than 1%). Section 3 discusses the policy implications derived from the survey findings. Several current government initiatives, such as increasing the flow

48、 of credit and subsidizing wages, appear to respond to the expressed needs of business. 1 1.METHODOLOGY I n collaboration with the Philippine Department of Finance, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) conducted an enterprise survey during 28 April15 May 2020. The questionnaire was designed to investiga

49、te the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on Philippine enterprises, along with the effect of the 16 March 2020 quarantine and lockdown measuressuch as the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) imposed by the government around the National Capital Region (NCR). It also aimed to help the government in developing their economic bounce-back strategies in response to the crisis. The survey was designed to grasp each respondents basic characteristics, the COVID-19 impact, potential needs for policy measures, and preparation for reopening. Accordingly, the survey que