2020年印度過境零售業報告 -Knight Frank（英文版）（98頁）.pdf

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1、Research knightfrank.co.in/research Catch Them Moving Report on Transit Retail Think India. Think Retail. 2020 FOODMALL DUTY FREE Bus Station RAILWAY STATION www.knightfrank.co.in/research Mumbai HO Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Paville House, Near Twin Towers, Off. Veer Savarkar Marg, Prabhadevi,

2、Mumbai 400 025, India Tel: 022 6745 0101 / 4928 0101; Bengaluru Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. 204 Chennai Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. 1st Floor, Centre block, Sunny Side, 8/17, Shafee Mohammed Road, Nungambakkam, Chennai 600 006, India Tel: 044 4296 9000 Gurgaon Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Of

3、fice Address: 1505-1508, 15th Floor, Tower B, Signature Towers South City 1, Gurgaon 122 001, India Tel: 0124 4782700; Hyderabad Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. SLN Terminus, Office No. 06-01, 5th Floor, Survey No. 133, Gachibowli, Hyderabad 500032, India Tel: 040 44554141; Kolkata Knight Frank (Indi

4、a) Pvt. Ltd. PS Srijan Corporate Park Unit Number 1202A, 12th Floor, Block EP however, the economic opportunities and aspirations for a better lifestyle is slowly drawing people to cities. This movement to cities is characterised by higher spending to meet the ever-expanding needs and has created as

5、pirations through exposure to media and the internet. The pattern of urbanisation in India is becoming a strong driving force for growth, as it entails huge investment in infrastructure in mass transit corridors, transportation hubs and associated need for goods and services. Cities in India contrib

6、ute approximately two-thirds to the countrys economy and are the main recipients of the bulk of foreign direct investments. According to a recent research,India will house 10 of the worlds fastest growing cities between 2019 and 2035 with Surat, Agra, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Nagpur taking the top s

7、pots. 2 According to Oxford Economics, of the 50 cities globally, the Indian cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune and Ghaziabad will see the biggest increase in population by the year 2030 translating to a consumption boom. 1 United Nations Department of

8、 Economic and Social Affairs 2Oxford Economics The Indian age pyramid Urbanisation in India is growing Total Population 1.3billion Source World Bank, Knight Frank Research Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank 1991200120112018 Rural PopulationUrban Population 230 662775 300 391 460 859892

9、 26% 0-14 28% 15-24 41% 25-54 8% 55-64 7% 65+ 67% of the Indian population falls in the working age category THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 13 THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 14 III. Technology boom It is interesting to note that even though a majority of the Indian populace resides in rural areas,

10、 the internet penetration is at a good 34% for rural areas and 64% for urban areas. This corroborates the fact that many e-retailers have reported of their noteworthy sales coming from rural India. There are several catalysts playing concomitantly in favour of e-tail, the most significant being the

11、strengthening ecosystem that makes buying online better every day. Information Technology (IT) infrastructure has improved significantly over the last decade. Customer experience has also become enhanced due to customer- friendly policies regarding exchange of goods, quick delivery and more. IV. Ada

12、pting with time The evolving omni-channel approach In the last decade, there has been a sea change in how the customer connects with retail. The speed at which this click-and-sell model has grown in the last two years signifies a ground shift in the buying pattern of the Indian populace. However, wi

13、th the number of leading e-tailers opening physical stores to showcase their products and services tells us that the deliberation on the bricks versus clicks models is not relevant anymore. Today, both have been integrated seamlessly to create a satisfying shopping experience and has thus been right

14、ly categorised as the omni channel strategy. An omni channel strategy connects consumers through various channels such as websites, mobile apps, social media, kiosks, physical stores, and strives to enable the consumer to shift between various channels seamlessly during his shopping journey. V. The

15、rising income and changing spending patterns It is not news that India is a consumption-driven economy and with the increase in urbanisation, consumption is expected to rise manifold. India has emerged as fifth largest economy of the world with a total size of $2.9 trillion in 2019. The increasing d

16、isposable incomes have led to an increase in private consumption expenditure in the past few years which grew at a healthy CAGR of 8% between FY 14 to FY 19. Carving out a handsome share (close to 60%) in the economys GDP, Indias consumption story has always been the major driver for its growth. The

17、 consumer of today is well travelled and the increase in incomes and exposure has also fuelled the use of plastic money and an increase in discretionary spending. As per a research study by Oxford Economics, New Delhi (3.4 million, rank 16) and Mumbai (3.3 million, rank 17) will be the worlds larges

18、t consumer cities in the middle-income households group by 2030.3 With development in the economy, the consumer spending pattern is shifting from essentials to luxuries and from goods to services. This shift towards discretionary spending is also visible in the growth in spending on leisure travel b

19、y residents within the country. Expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 8.2% during 2019-2025, the growth in domestic spending on leisure and business travel points toward the fact that new age India is ambitious, dynamic and upwardly mobile, which presents a huge potentia

20、l to the Indian retail growth story.4 Internet broadband subscribers in India 36% Rural Internet Users 688 Total internet subscribers (millions) 3Middle-income US$10k-US$70K non-PPP 2012 prices and exchange rates. 4 World Travel and Tourism Council Source: The Indian Telecom Services Performance Ind

21、icators, 2019 64% Urban Internet Users THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 15 Global Giants - Top economies of the World Global per capita GDP - India plays catch-up Source International Monetary Fund (IMF) Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank 2019 2018, USD current prices UNITED STATES 62,7

22、95 INDIA 2,038 WORLD 11,312 GERMANY 47,603 UNITED KINGDOM 42,944 FRANCE 41,464 JAPAN 39,290 CHINA 9,771 USDUSD USD 87 (2019) 85 (2018) 112 (2024 E) World India China Germany France United States United Kingdom Japan 3 (2019) 2.8 (2018) 4 (2019) 4.0 (2018) 2.7 (2019) 2.8 (2018) 2.9 (2019) 2.7 (2018)

23、21 (2019) 20.6 (2018) 5.2 (2019) 5.0 (2018) 3.1 (2024 E) 5 (2024 E) 3 (2024 E) 4.6 (2024 E) 26 (2024 E) 14 (2019) 13 (2018) 21 (2024 E)6 (2024 E) India has emerged as 5th largest economy in the world with a total size of USD 2.9 trillion in 2019 GDP, current prices (trillion USD) THINK INDIA. THINK

24、RETAIL. 2020 16 Indias GDP per capita is growing at 6% Source: International Monetary Fund 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022E Indias private consumption expenditure - An indicator of increasing disposable income Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OE

25、CD) 201020112012201320142015201620172018 USD billion (current prices) 142 166 191 219 248 276 312 343 387 1,423 1,498 1,482 1,486 1,6101,640 1,762 2,014 2,038 2,172 2,338 2,529 2,737 THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 17 Indians are spending on their leisure and business trips in and out of India5 2016

26、 USD 176 mn USD 18 mn 2017 USD 184 mn USD 19 mn 2018 USD 197 mn USD 21 mn 2025E USD 318 mn USD 33 mn 2019 USD 23 mn USD 214 mn Source: World Travel and Tourism Council, USD (real prices) Domestic tourism spending USD (real prices) Outbound tourism spending THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 18 As citie

27、s expand, infrastructure augmentation and connectivity become enablers for furthering the economic growth of the city. Transport infrastructure in the form of roads, railways, metro, airport, ports and inland waterways is undergoing a massive rehaul in India and is expected to see a capital outlay o

28、f USD 300 billion (annually) in the coming five years.3 Government initiatives such as Bharatmala Pariyojana (highways), Sagarmala (ports), railway station redevelopment programme, inland waterways development, regional air connectivity scheme in the form of UDAN (airports), and Smart Cities (urban

29、infra) is slowly changing the urban landscape in India. Along with this, the participation of private players in infrastructure projects such as airports, metros and railways are opening new avenues for retail to expand its footprint away from the conventional shopping centres and highstreets. Plann

30、ed infrastructure revitalises the underutilised precincts of the city and brings significant change in its economic activity. For example, the coming up of new transit corridors and transportation networks is opening newer real estate opportunities for developers and brands to position themselves in

31、 the well in the eye of the customer. 2. Infrastructure push shaping up retail footprint Government infrastructure push for the next five years Foreign direct investment - Top 5 countries investing in India Metro and RailwaysAirportsRoads Modernisation of Railways, with a plan to modernise 400 railw

32、ays with passenger-friendly amenities and facilities. Launch high speed trains and new version trains such as the Vande Bharat Express. Expand metro infrastructure to 50 cities Incentivise cities to intigrate public transport systems such as metros. Develop suburban townships and new urban centres t

33、hrough infrastructure connectivity. Operationalise 100 new airports for better connectivity. Construct 60,000 kms of National Highways and double the length of national highways Introduce new technology in design and construction. Foreign Direct Investment in India on an on the upward trend To attra

34、ct more FDI, the Indian government is making policy more liberal by allowing 100% FDI under the Automatic Route in more sectors like single brand retailing, food products, airports, e-commerce activities, construction development, etc.4 The process of FDI approvals has been streamlined and simplifie

35、d to facilitate the investors, with the respective ministries/departments being the approving authorities and Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) being the single reference point. FDI investment has been increasing over the years with the top sectors being service sectors

36、(banking, insurance, etc), computer software and hardware, telecommunications, construction development, trading, etc. As per FDI Statistics (DPIIT), the total FDI equity inflow received from April 2000 to September 2019 is USD 4,46,238 million and in 2019, till September, India has received USD 26,

37、096 million. 3. The policy perspective 2017-182018-192019-20* - 16,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Investment in USD million MauritiusSingaporeJapanNetherlandsUSA Source: FDI Statistics, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (2019). *Data for 2019-2020 is available

38、till September. Source: Knight Frank Research 3ICRA Limited estimates, 2019 4 Source: FDI Policy Press Note 4 (2019) and Consolidated FDI Policy (2017), Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 19 I. FDI in Retail the Indian Scenario Indian markets have

39、 not just grown but are also becoming more technologically advanced and sophisticated. According to the Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), Indian retail is ranked second with high market attractiveness and lower risks. With the rules being modified and relaxed for attracting more foreign invest

40、ment, the Government of India is supporting and tapping into the potential of the retail sector. Retailers can invest through the Automatic or Government/ Approval Route under FDI. The Industrial Corridors currently being planned, have also increased the opportunities of retail in such corridors. In

41、troduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) has decreased the cost and time of logistics and interstate transport. This has made the Indian retail market more lucrative for foreign investors who can invest in single brands, multi brands, wholesale/ cash and carry, e-commerce or duty free. There has be

42、en substantial increase in the FDI equity inflows into the retail industry from year 2014, and the highest has been recorded in year 2018. As per FDI Statistics by Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), from April 2000 to September 2019, wholesale and e-commerce have receive

43、d USD 25,165 million and retail trading has received USD 1,898 million, which accounts for 6% and 0.43% respectively, of the total equity inflows. In 2019 until June, trading received USD 2,565 million and retailing received USD 265 million. 5 FDI Equity Inflows - Total, Trading and Retail TradingFD

44、I in Trading and Retail Trading 201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018 FDI equity inflowsTrading ( Wholesale and E-commerce)Trading and retail tradingRetail Trading ( Single Brand) 24,299 712 717 3,033 178 3,733 184 3,605 476 449 2,818 206 5,558 29,737 2,855 40,001 3,549 43,478 3,129 44,85

45、7 2,612 44,857 5,110 26,0962,565 265 2,830 2019 (January to June)2019 (January to June) Source: FDI Statistics, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (2019) Source: FDI Statistics, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (2019) 5 5FDI Statistics, Department for Promot

46、ion of Industry and Internal Trade THINK INDIA. THINK RETAIL. 2020 20 Single Brand Retail Trading (SBRT) 100% FDI is allowed under Automatic Route. No capping on minimum and maximum investment Single brand retailers operating from brick and mortar store, can also do e-commerce Single brand retailers

47、 with no brick and mortar store, can now sell through e-commerce, before opening brick and mortar store within two years Total of 30% local sourcing for first five years, and then 30% on annual basis for investments more than 51% Up until 2019, 51% has been allowed in SBRT. Other conditions are that

48、 the product should be of single brand and should be sold under the same brand internationally. The products should be branded during manufacturing. As mentioned in the consolidated FDI Policy, the local sourcing is to be done from Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), village and cottage ind

49、ustries, artisans and craftsmen, in all sectors. For the sourcing requirement, the company which will receive the foreign investment must be incorporated in India. For SBRT products having state of art and cutting- edge technology and where local sourcing is not possible, the local sourcing norm is not applicable for the first three years. Examples: IKEA, Hennes concepts such as petro retailing and strip malls have only been catching