亞洲開發銀行：2020年亞洲證券監測報告（英文版）（90頁）.pdf

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1、Asia Bond Monitor September 2020 This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Peoples Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and t

2、he Republic of Korea. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members 49 from the region. Its main instru

3、ments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org ASIA BOND MONITOR SEPTEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK The

4、 Asia Bond Monitor (ABM) is part of the Asian Bond Markets Initiative, an ASEAN+3 initiative supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This report is part of the implementation of a technical assistance project funded by the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund of the Government of Japan under

5、the Regional Cooperation and Integration Financing Partnership Facility. This edition of the ABM was prepared by a team from the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department headed by Yasuyuki Sawada and supervised by Director of Macroeconomics Research Division Abdul Abiad. The production

6、of the ABM was led by Donghyun Park and Shu Tian and supported by the AsianBondsOnline team. The AsianBondsOnline team members include Jun Ray Bautista, Angelica Andrea Cruz, Debbie Gundaya, Russ Jason Lo, Patrick Vincent Lubenia, Resi Olivares, and Roselyn Regalado. Cynthia Castillejos-Petalcorin a

7、nd Mai Lin Villaruel provided operational support, Kevin Donahue provided editorial assistance, Principe Nicdao did the typesetting and layout, and Carlo Monteverde and Erickson Mercado provided website support. Contributions from Irfan Qureshi, Young Professional, Economic Research and Regional Coo

8、peration Department, ADB; Naoko Nemoto, Financial Economist, ADB Institute; Lian Liu, Research Associate, ADB Institute; Jean-Jacques Barbris, Head of Institutional Clients Coverage and ESG, Amundi; and Marie Brire, Head of the Investor Research Center, Amundi are gratefully acknowledged. How to rea

9、ch us: Asian Development Bank Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 6545 E-mail: asianbonds_feedbackadb.org Download the ABM at http:/asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/ abm_sep_2020.pdf. The Asia Bond Monit

10、orSeptember 2020 was prepared by ADBs Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department and does not necessarily reflect the views of ADBs Board of Governors or the countries they represent. ASIA BOND MONITOR SEPTEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC

11、BY 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9262-374-6 (print), 978-92-9262-375-3 (electronic), 978-92-9262

12、-376-0 (ebook) ISSN 2219-1518 (print), 2219-1526 (electronic) Publication Stock No. SPR200266-2 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR200266-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its

13、Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or r

14、ecommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” inthis document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of a

15、ny territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations,

16、 and permissions, please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed toanother source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source f

17、or permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not

18、fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Note: ADB recognizes “Hong Kong,” and “Hongkong,” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; “Korea” as the Republic of Korea;

19、“Siam” as Thailand; “Vietnam” as Viet Nam; “Saigon” as Ho Chi Minh City; and “Macao” as Macau, China. Cover design by Erickson Mercado. Contents Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets: A Regional Update Highlights . vi Executive Summary . vii Global and Regional Market Developments . 1 Bond

20、 Market Developments in the Second Quarter of 2020 . 19 Policy and Regulatory Developments . 40 Market Summaries China, Peoples Republic of . 43 Hong Kong, China . 48 Indonesia .53 Korea, Republic of .59 Malaysia .65 Philippines . 70 Singapore. 76 Thailand . 80 Viet Nam . 86 Emerging East Asian Loca

21、l Currency Bond Markets: A Regional Updatev DRAFT-UNDER EMBARGO Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets: A Regional Update Highlights Key Trends From15Juneto11September,2-yearand10-yearbond yieldsfellinnearlyallemergingEastAsianmarketsdue tomonetaryeasingbytheregionscentralbanksand slowingec

22、onomicgrowth.1 Globalinvestmentsentimentrecoveredandfinancial conditionsinemergingEastAsiaimproved,resulting fromaccommodativemonetarystancesandrelatively bettercoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)containment effortsintheregion.Duringthereviewperiod,most emergingEastAsianequitymarketsrallied,mostbond yields

23、preadsandcreditdefaultswapsnarrowed,and mostemergingEastAsiancurrenciesstrengthened againsttheUnitedStatesdollar. Althoughthesharesofforeignholdingsinregional bondmarketsfellinthefirstquarter,theystabilizedin somemarketstowardtheendofthesecondquarterof 2020.Othermarketssawcontinueddeclinesintheir go

24、vernmentbondforeignholdingsshare. EmergingEastAsiaslocalcurrencybondmarket expandedtoUSD17.2trillionattheendofthesecond quarterof2020,rising5.0%quarter-on-quarterand 15.5%year-on-year,upfrom4.2%quarter-on-quarter and14.0%year-on-yearinthepriorquarter.The growthwaslargelydrivenbytheincreasedfinancing

25、 needsofboththepublicandprivatesectorsasthey soughttomitigatetheimpactoftheCOVID-19 pandemic.Governmentbondscomprised60.8%ofthe regionstotallocalcurrencybondsoutstandingatthe endofJune. Risks to Financial Stability Risksremaintiltedtothedownside.Theoverridingrisk isapossibleworseningoftheCOVID-19pan

26、demic and/oritlastinglongerthanexpected. Otherrisksincludeongoingtradetensionsbetween thePeoplesRepublicofChinaandtheUnited States,aswellasheightenedsocialunrestduetothe economicimpactofCOVID-19. 1 EmergingEastAsiacomprisesthePeoplesRepublicofChina;HongKong,China;Indonesia;theRepublicofKorea;Malaysi

27、a;thePhilippines;Singapore;Thailand;andVietNam. Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets: A Regional Updatevii Executive Summary Globalinvestmentsentimentrecoveredandfinancial conditionsinemergingEastAsiaimprovedamidmonetary easingandfiscalstimulusthatsoftenedtheimpactofthe coronavirusdisease

28、(COVID-19)pandemic. From15Juneto11September,2-yearand10-year localcurrency(LCY)governmentbondyieldsinmost emergingEastAsianmarketsdeclinedontheback ofaccommodativemonetarypoliciesandweakening economicgrowthacrosstheregion.1 Theimprovedsentimentledtogainsinequitymarkets andnarrowedcreditspreadsinmost

29、emergingEastAsian economiesduringthereviewperiod.Mostregional currenciesalsostrengthenedagainsttheUnitedStates (US)dollar.However,trendsinforeigninvestorholdings weremixed. Despiteimprovedsentiment,riskappetitehasnotfully recoveredtopre-pandemiclevels.Regionalequity indexeswere11.0%loweron11Septembe

30、rcompared with2January,onaverage,whilecreditspreadswereup anaverageof16basispoints.Risksremaintiltedtothe downside.Theeconomicimpactofthepandemicmaybe deeperandmorepersistentthaninitiallyexpected.The worseningoftheCOVID-19outbreakand/oritlasting longerthanexpectedisthebiggestriskfactortothe projecti

31、ons.Otherrisksincludeheightenedsocialunrest duetotheeconomicimpactofthepandemic,aswellas ongoingtradetensionsbetweenthePeoplesRepublicof China(PRC)andtheUS. The size of emerging East Asias local currency bond market reached USD17.2 trillion at theend of June. LCYbondsinemergingEastAsiareachedUSD17.2

32、trillion attheendofJune.Themarketexpandedby5.0%quarter- on-quarter(q-o-q)and15.5%year-on-year(y-o-y)inthe secondquarter(Q2)of2020,acceleratingfromgrowthof 4.2%q-o-qand14.0%y-o-yinthefirstquarterof2020. GovernmentbondsstoodatUSD10.5trillionand accountedfor60.8%oftheregionsaggregatebond stockattheendo

33、fJune,whilecorporatebondsreached USD6.7trillion,or39.2%ofthetotal. ThePRCremainedhometotheregionslargestbond marketattheendofJune,accountingfor76.6%of emergingEastAsiastotalbondstock.ThePRCwas followedbytheRepublicofKoreawith12.3%.Membersof theAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)had acollective

34、shareof9.3%.2 ThesizeofemergingEastAsiasLCYbondsasashareof regionalgrossdomesticproductclimbedto91.6%atthe endofJunefrom87.8%attheendofMarchand81.5%at theendofJune2019.Theuptickwasduetothelarge amountoffundingneededtofightthepandemicand mitigateitsimpact. LCYbondissuanceintheregionclimbedto USD2.0tr

35、illioninQ22020,growingby21.3%q-o-q and32.0%y-o-y.Issuanceofgovernmentbondsgrew 29.1%q-o-qand27.8%y-o-yinQ22020,andissuanceof corporatebondsrose11.7%q-o-qand38.5%y-o-y. TheSeptemberissueoftheAsia Bond Monitorincludes fourspecialdiscussionboxes.Oneboxreviewsrecent trendsandchangesintheinvestorprofilei

36、nLCYbond marketsinAsia.Anotherboxdiscussestheincreaseduse ofdigitalpaymentamidtheCOVID-19pandemic.Two boxesexamineenvironmental,social,andgovernance (ESG)investmentsandtheirresilienceduringthe COVID-19era. Box 1: Asian Bond Markets Recent Trends and Developments Thisboxanalyzestrendsandchangesinthei

37、nvestor profileinemergingEastAsianbondmarketssince January2020.Thebondspreadsofselectemerging EastAsianmarketswidenedamidMarchmarketturmoil, 1EmergingEastAsiacomprisesthePeoplesRepublicofChina;HongKong,China;Indonesia;theRepublicofKorea;Malaysia;thePhilippines;Singapore;Thailand;andVietNam. 2LCYbond

38、statisticsfortheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsincludethemarketsofIndonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietNam. viiiAsia Bond Monitor whichsawlargeoutflowsofportfolioinvestmentsand rapiddeclinesinforeignholdingsinLCYbondmarkets. Domesticinstitutionssuchasbanksincreasedtheir hol

39、dingsofLCYbondsasforeigninvestorsretreatedin thefirstquarterof2020.Tomaintainfinancialstability andmitigatetheimpactofCOVID-19,theregions centralbankscutinterestrates,whichcontributedtothe improvedfinancialconditionsbeginninginApril.Regional bondmarketsrecoveredinQ22020.Portfolioinvestment flowsstab

40、ilized,bondspreadsnarrowed,equitymarkets rose,andcurrenciesappreciated.Theboxalsonotesthat bondmarketsinemergingEastAsiacontinuetoexpand tohelpmeetthefundingneedsofboththepublicand privatesectorsastheytrytocontaintheepidemicand mitigateitsimpact. Box 2: Contactless Payment in Post-COVID Asia Thisbox

41、discussestheincreasinguseanddevelopment ofcontactlesspaymenttechnologyinAsiaasaresult oftheCOVID-19pandemic.WhileAsiastilllags behindtheglobalaverage,theuseofdigitalpayment isgrowingrapidlyacrosstheregion.Theboxhighlights theroleofeconomicandhealthshocksintriggeringthe developmentofdigitalpayment.Th

42、eregionseconomies mustbuildthenecessaryinfrastructuretofurtheradvance contactlesspaymenttechnologies,includingrobust identificationsystems,reliableinternetnetworks,secure financialservices,andstrongregulatoryframeworks. Box 3: Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment Growth amid the COVID-19

43、 Crisis ThisboxexaminesthegrowthofESGinvestmentinAsia sincetheonsetofCOVID-19.Datashowthatcumulative ESGinvestmentinmutualfundsexpandedbetween December2019andMay2020.Usingstockmarketdata fromQ12020forthetop100Japanese-listedcompanies, thestudyfoundthatfirmswiththehighestESGratings hadthesmallestaver

44、agedeclineandthemoststable stockprices.ThisfindingpointstotheresilienceofESG investmentamidCOVID-19.Theboxconcludeswitha discussionoftheremainingchallengesinpromotingESG investmentinAsia. Box 4: Is Green the New Gold? ESG Resilience during the COVID-19 Crisis ThisboxdiscussestheresilienceofESGfundsduring theCOVID-19crisis,whichhavethusfaroutperformed equitymarketsandexchange-tradedfundsglobal