Knight Frank：2016年全球城市報告_EN.pdf

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1、THE 2017 REPORT The Future Of Real Estate In The Worlds Leading Cities 3 3 We live in a remarkable era. Around the world over 490 million people reside in countries with negative interest rates. Over 60% of the worlds citizens now own a smart phone. An estimated four billion people live in cities, w

2、hich is up by 23% on ten years ago. The above figures highlight three key trends that are shaping our times. Firstly, the era of low to negative interest rates has reduced investors expectations on what constitutes an acceptable return. The financial rollercoaster ride that led to this situation has

3、 made safe haven assets highly sought after. Secondly, a volatile economy has not stopped an avalanche of technological innovation. Smartphones, tablets, WiFi and 4G have revolutionised the spread of information, increased our ability to work on the move, and led to a flowering of entrepreneurship.

4、Thirdly, our fast growing cities are centre stage in the innovation economy, and in most of the Global Cities, supply is not keeping pace with demand for both commercial and residential real estate. Consequently, tech and creative firms are increasingly relying upon pre-let deals to accommodate grow

5、th, while their young workers struggle to find affordable homes. The previous two editions of Global Cities charted the rising importance of technology firms and creative workers to established business hubs like New York, San Francisco, London and Paris. This edition shows that the tech and creativ

6、e economy has spread to emerging market cities like Shanghai and Bangkok, and tier-two western cities like Austin and Berlin. However, the common message coming from the 34 Global Cities surveyed in this report is that the urban economy is increasingly people-centric. Whether a city is driven by fin

7、ance, aerospace, commodities, defence, or manufacturing, the most important asset is a large pool of educated and creative workers. Consequently, real estate is increasingly a business that seeks to build an environment that attracts and retains such people. This years Global Cities report looks at

8、how real estate is achieving this across the world. The Global Cities are achieving rapid growth by attracting the talented, high value workers that all companies, across industries, want to recruit JOHN SNOW Head of Commercial, Knight Frank JAMES D. KUHN President, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank GLOBAL

9、 TALENT HUBS View Global Cities and properties from around the world on your device today. KNIGHTFRANK.COM/GLOBALCITIES NGKF.COM/GLOBALCITIES NOW AVAILABLE GLOBAL CITIES 2017 45 GLOBAL CITIES 2017 45 THE SUPER CITIES 06-09 The Super Cities Why cities cope best with economic transformation 10-11 The

10、Age of Extremes Is anti-globalisation a threat to the rise of cities? 12-13 Skyscraper Index 14-15 New Tech City Creative industries thrive in New York City 16-17 Tomorrows World: Londons Future Businesses 18-19 Meet The Decacorns LIVING IN THE CITY 20-23 Living in the City Back to the future in the

11、 Global Cities 24-25 Bouncing Back on Reinvention Cultural revolution comes to Dubai and Miami 26-27 De-zoning - The Future for Retails Urban Utopia 28 Designs on the Future - Christophe Carpente The secrets behind luxury shop design 29 Washingtons Hotel Market 30 Go East 31 CBD Living In Melbourne

12、INVENTION yet at the same time some people have lost fortunes. The locations that have performed best in this unpredictable environment have generally hosted the creative and technology industries that lead the digital revolution, and disrupt established markets. In many ways, the Apple iPhone symbo

13、lises our era. THE IPHONE GENERATION The iPhone was launched in June 2007, just as the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis was escalating into the Global Financial Crisis (or GFC). This should have been a terrible time to launch a new product, however the iPhone defied years of rollercoaster economic new

14、s to post rising sales through the GFC, the Euro Crisis, and the commodities rout. In the process, the iPhone overshadowed telecoms old guard, drew other new entrants into smartphones like Samsung, and morphed a complimentary market in tablet computers. Innovation begat further innovation, as the ub

15、iquity of smartphones and tablets sparked a revolution in how people access the internet, email, media, and social networks. Mould breaking companies, from Uber to AirBNB, have used these devices to become overnight threats to the established order in their industries. We are moving into an era wher

16、e creative people are a highly prized commodity. Cities will thrive or sink on their ability to attract this key demographic WRITTEN BY James Roberts, Chief Economist and Editor of Global Cities, Knight Frank One World Trade Center, Manhattan, U.S. THE SUPER CITIES GLOBAL CITIES 2017SUPER CITIES 89

17、CONTINUED FROM PG 6-7 Reacting to these fast paced changes, businesses have rushed to recruit creative, highly educated staff, and expanded their offices in the cities that attract the iPhone generation. This generation is not characterised by age, but an adaptive, free thinking mindset. Firms want

18、to lock in those individuals, with offices that match workers lifestyle and commuting needs. CREATIVE DESTRUCTION The iPhones success demonstrates the phenomenon that the economist, Joseph Schumpeter, called creative destruction. This is where changes in technology and the companies born of this fre

19、sh innovation have a Darwinian effect on a previous generation. The new kids on the economic block prosper at the expense of the old guard unless established firms quickly change with the times. In Schumpeters era, the rise of aeroplanes, automobiles, and petroleum created economic booms in the citi

20、es that led the tech revolution of the 1920s and 1930s. Yet elsewhere recession descended on locations with the industries that lost market share to those new technologies, like ship building, train manufacturing, and coal mining. Similarly today we have a world where abundant economic opportunities

21、 in one region live alongside stagnation elsewhere. It is not easy to reconcile the fact that countries who were booming just a few years ago on rising commodity prices are now adapting to slower growth. Just as surprising is the sight of western cities that were dismissed as busted flushes in 2009

22、due to their high exposure to financial services, now thriving as innovation centres. This is creative destruction at work in the modern context. The important lesson for todays property investor, or occupier of business space, is to ensure you are on-the- ground where the creation is occurring, and

23、 have limited exposure to the destruction. This is not easy, as the pace of technology change is accelerating the speed at which the old finds itself overtaken by the new. However, real estate in the Global Cities arguably offers a hedged bet against this uncertainty due to the nature of the modern

24、urban economy; where those facing destruction, quickly reposition towards the next wave of creation. FLEXIBLE CITIES The industries that drive the modern Global City are not dependent upon machinery or commodities but people; which delivers economic flexibility. A locomotive plant cannot easily reto

25、ol to make electric cars, raising a shortcoming of the single industry factory town; while an oil field in Venezuela has limited value for any other commercial activity. However, a modern office building in a Global City like Paris can quickly move from accommodating bankers in rows of desks to tech

26、ies in flexible work space. So there is adaptability in the people in a service economy city which is matched by the citys real estate. This means large modern cities can quickly adapt to the forces of creative destruction. In 2007, investment banks were the stars of the New York and London economie

27、s. They typically consisted of a small cadre of senior traders and financiers, supported by a large infantry of recent graduates, HR, marketing, IT, research, accounts, and other support workers. The technology and creative firms leading the economy in London and New York in 2016 similarly build aro

28、und a core of senior creative staff, backed by swathes of graduates and support staff. So in the people-driven Global Cities a new industry can redeploy the infantry from a fading industry via recruitment. Similarly the professional and business service companies that served the banks, now serve a n

29、ew clientele of digital firms. In contrast, manufacturing or commodity driven economies face greater barriers when reinventing themselves. So the knowledge-fountain cities are well tuned for creative destruction, as people can rapidly redeploy as markets are shifted by fresh innovation. The most fle

30、xible cities command the highest real estate rents and lowest yields, and that will continue, as they cope best with rapid change. THE CHALLENGES AHEAD Today, landlords across the world struggle with how to judge the covenants of firms who have not been in existence long enough to have three years o

31、f accounts, but are clearly the future. Consequently both landlord and tenant need to approach real estate deals with flexibility. Landlords will need to give ground on lease term and financial track record, and occupiers must compensate the landlord for the increased risk via a higher rent. Another

32、 big challenge for the western Global Cities will be competition from emerging market cities that succeed in repositioning themselves away from manufacturing, and towards creative services. The process has started, with Shanghai now seeing a rapid expansion of its tech and creative industries. The b

33、ig western centres still lead in services, but the challenge from emerging markets cities did not end with the commodities rout. They are just experiencing creative destruction, and will emerge stronger to present a new challenge to the West. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT VOLUME (YEAR TO JUNE 20

34、16) U.S.$ BN The Bund, Shanghai, China “THE BIG WESTERN CENTRES STILL LEAD IN SERVICES, BUT THE CHALLENGE FROM EMERGING MARKETS DID NOT END WITH THE COMMODITIES ROUT” London 35.9 Paris 23.7 Chicago 16.1 Boston 14.8 Washington, DC 13.0 Hong Kong 12.2 Shanghai 11.2 Seattle 9.5 Sydney 8.8 Singapore 6.5

35、 Melbourne 6.4 Berlin 6.1 Frankfurt 5.9 Miami 5.8 Madrid 4.9 Beijing 4.3 Austin 4.1 Seoul 4.0 Amsterdam 3.0 Brisbane 2.8 Dublin 2.6 FORECAST POPULATION GROWTH IN GLOBAL CITIES 2015 TO 2020 Manhattan 40.7 Tokyo 20.8 San Francisco 25.8 Los Angeles 33.1 Source: RCA, Knight Frank, Newmark Grubb Knight F

36、rank Note: Includes office, retail, industrial and hotel real estate Beijing Dubai Bengaluru Austin Kuala Lumpur Shanghai Delhi Bogot Bangkok Mumbai Brisbane Singapore Dublin Melbourne Toronto Washington, DC London Sydney Seattle Madrid 18.7% 18.5% 17.3% 15.1% 14.7% 14.3% 14.2% 9.5% 9.4% 8.5% 8.5% 7

37、.8% 7.7% 7.1% 6.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% Source: The United Nations New York, U.S. GLOBAL CITIES 2017SUPER CITIES 1011 THE AGE OF The best way to defend globalisation is to integrate more people into the Global Cities network Across the world, the political consensus that supported the spread of

38、globalisation finds itself under attack from populist figures from both the right and the left, who have won support by challenging the political mainstream. This raises the question, could the trends that have shaped the global economy free trade, surging mega-cities, and the supremacy of knowledge

39、 workers go into reverse? However, we see the global economy adapting to match these protests. The process of change will bring more of the disaffected into the mainstream, by sharing the benefits of the globalisation, and ultimately strengthen the trends driving the Global Cities over the long-term

40、. POLITICAL DIVIDES As austerity has become widespread, globalisation has become a focus of criticism in an increasingly divided political debate. The nature of those divisions have been well illustrated in the 2016 U.S. Presidential race and the U.K.s EU referendum. In the U.S. election, Republican

41、 nominee, Donald Trump, successfully mobilised voters concerned over immigration, and frustrated by growing income inequality. Another source of tension is the decline of U.S. heavy industries, and the rise of new tech and finance jobs that typically require a college degree. These factors also unde

42、rpinned the leave vote in the U.K.s EU referendum. The Brexit vote in the U.K. is the latest, and perhaps the most spectacular, example of how the disaffected can use the ballot box to challenge globalisation. Conversely, the runner-up for the Democrat nomination, Bernie Sanders, successfully appeal

43、ed to younger voters who felt shutout from the economic mainstream. Large college debts, temporary work contracts, and high house prices have left some millennials railing against the establishment. Thus a younger demographic of voters rallied to a candidate opposing globalisation. Elections in 2017

44、 in France, Germany and The Netherlands could uncover further evidence that the populists are gaining political ground. SPREADING THE BENEFITS However, globalisation has faced similar challenges before: from the volatile politics of the 1920s and 1930s, to the trade union militants of the 1970s. Glo

45、balisation saw off these threats and resumed its onwards march, and did so by adapting to win over people by spreading the benefits. This will be achieved by courting the alienated, thus building a new political consensus with a wider support base. Integrating the disaffected into the economic netwo

46、rk of the Global Cities will be central to this process. If greater curbs on immigration are actually introduced, they will actually increase the focus of companies on attracting and retaining high skilled workers, particularly millennials. If it becomes more difficult to bring people in from abroad

47、, the premium commanded by home-grown talent increases. Improving the lot of former heavy-industry centres will be more challenging, although very low government bond yields will improve the chances of state assistance. Some former-factory towns could be linked by high speed rail to Global Cities, a

48、nd be redeveloped as large dormitory suburbs. Others will benefit from near shoring back office jobs. However, it is building links with the Global Cities (and thus globalisation) that will deliver regeneration. Critical to winning back disaffected millennials will be improving their job security an

49、d quality of life. On jobs, ironically the pendulum of the market economy is moving in their favour, as the question of how to attract and retain this demographic is rising up the corporate agenda. Moreover, as we enter the age of self-driving vehicles, drones, and artificial intelligence, the younger generation will become central to the economy, thanks to the ease with which they interact with technology. Time is on the millennials side. HOMES FOR MILLENNIALS For quality of life, housing is a major issue. Many mil