Crimson Hexagon：2017年汽車行業趨勢報告(英文版)(28頁).pdf

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1、Roads of the Future Eco-friendly autos, self-driving cars, ridesharing, and other trends affecting the US auto industry 34 Methodology For this auto industry report, we analyzed Crimson Hexagons library of more than one trillion posts from sources like Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, Reddit and forums be

2、tween 2010 and 2016. We also used data from non-social sources like the Air Resources Board, Ride Guru, and others. By analyzing historical social media conversations about ridesharing, eco-friendly vehicles, self-driving technology and more, we were able to uncover emerging trends, track shifting c

3、onsumer sentiment, and better understand the forces shaping the future of the auto industry. Table of Contents Introduction 5 Green Machines 11 Eco-friendly conversation 13 Electric vs. hybrid 15 Whos talking about green cars 19 Self-driving cars 25 In the drivers seat 27 Bumpy road ahead? 30 The Ri

4、se of Ridesharing 35 From zero to sixty 37 Is ridesharing dispatching with cabs? 38 How do consumers feel about ridesharing? 39 Fare or foul? 45 Who needs a car these days? 49 The car-buying conversation 51 Afterword 55 56 Introduction When cars were first introduced to consumers at the beginning of

5、 last century, they almost instantly revolutionized everyday life. Physical distance became less important, and easy access to everything from jobs to groceries reshaped the geometry of modern existence. But the transformation didnt stop there. Over time, automobiles continued to evolve. They became

6、 faster, safer, and cheaper. A car from 2008, a century after the release of the Model T, would be almost incomprehensible to Henry Ford. And in the last few years, those changes have only accelerated. Todays forward-looking carmakers have largely moved on from making their vehicles faster, safer an

7、d cheaper. Instead, their attention has shifted to new horizons designing cars to be more eco-friendly, easily sharable, and, increasingly, autonomous. It likely wont be long before you can order an electric, self-driving Uber with the tap of a button. Anytime an industry undergoes such a dramatic t

8、ransformation, important questions need to be answered, and the auto industry is no exception. How have these technological developments changed the conversation around the automotive industry? Are consumers excited about the these changes? Anxious? Both? In this report, we use social media conversa

9、tions to analyze three big trends affecting the auto industry: Eco-friendly vehicles Self-driving cars Ridesharing vs. Taxis We selected these three automotive trends due to their increasingly frequent press coverage, centrality to emerging policy debates and more. They are also topics well suited t

10、o social media analysis thanks to their topicality and overall impact. 78 Key trends in the auto industry The automotive industry is in the midst of a transformation. Environmentally friendly cars, from Tesla and others, are making huge strides; self-driving cars have started hitting the streets; an

11、d ridesharing companies like Uber and Lyft are changing the way people get from Point A to Point B. But what do these changes mean for consumers? Are they excited about a future where they can hop into a self-driving Uber? Or are they anxious about it? Will their next car be electric? Or will they f

12、orgo their next car altogether? We analyzed millions of social media posts since 2010 to uncover several key findings about the future of the auto industry. Electric Surge The eco-friendly conversation on social is dominated by electric cars, which account for 71% of the total discussion and dwarf o

13、ther topics like hybrids and alternative fuels. Gender Gap Men outnumber women in the environmentally friendly car conversation at a rate of nearly 3:1. Ask the Audience Consumers discussing electric cars are more likely to be interested in clean energy, renewable energy, and climate change the peop

14、le talking about hybrid cars. Whos winning the eco-friendly car debate? 72% 28% Eco-Friendly, Electric, and Hybrid Cars Eco-Friendly Cars Share of Voice Electric Cars sustainability climate change renewable energy Hybrid Cars homework hip hop SportsCenter 71% electric 19% hybrid 9% alt fuel 1% ulev

15、910 Self-Driving Cars Discussion Trends Taxis vs Ridesharing Taxis Ridesharing 2010201620122014 Fear Takes the Wheel As conversation about self-driving cars has grown, consumers anger and fear about the topic has steadily increased. The Uberization of Cities Since 2012, Uber and Lyft have gone from

16、5% share of voice compared to taxis in major cities to more than 60%. The rise of ridesharing Negative Review? As ridesharing has become more prevalent, it has also become more unpopular at least on social media. Net sentiment has gone from about 40% positive to 15% negative. Is Ridesharing Hurting

17、Car Sales? Conversation about ridesharing has taken a huge bite out of the car- buying (and public transit) conversation, especially in major cities. Transportation Discussion in Major Cities 2010201620122014 Taxis Ridesharing Public Transportation 201020102016201620132013 Positive Positive Negative

18、 Negative RidesharingTaxis 80 0 -80 -40 40 Code Hits the Road Social conversation about self-driving cars has skyrocketed since 2014, growing nearly 6x. Are consumers ready for self-driving cars? 2010201620122014 Emotion Trends: Self-Driving Cars fear anger joy sadness disgust 2010201620122014 Elect

19、ric, hybrid and the inevitability of eco-friendly cars These days, its not a question of if the auto industry will go green but when. The transformation started years ago but has really picked up steam in the last few, as the worlds foremost auto companies (and upstarts like Tesla) roll out more (an

20、d more affordable) eco-friendly options. A world with predominantly energy-efficient, clean-powered cars cant be far off. But the real question is about how we get there. What are the incremental changes that will bring about the auto industry of the future? Will it rely more on electric cars or hyb

21、rids? Government credits or a whole new marketplace? Will existing auto giants remake their images in time or be supplanted by eco-friendly startups? Underlying all these questions is the ultimate factor: the consumer. How are American consumers processing (and talking about) the changes to their ve

22、hicles? What are the eco-friendly features most desired by consumers? Are they more driven by climate concerns or fuel-efficiency? How do they interpret the evolving auto industry, and how does this affect their decisions about which cars they buy? Real-time consumer sentiment about evolving topics

23、is notoriously difficult to get at, but luckily we have a powerful tool on our side: social media analytics. By analyzing the millions of car-related conversations that occur on social media and forums every day, were able paint a clear and up-to-the-minute picture of the eco-friendly automotive lan

24、dscape. Specifically, we studied the social conversations surrounding eco-friendly cars since 2010 to understand: The electric vs. Hybrid Debate Common Topics in the green car conversation The audiences for eco-friendly vehicles Green Machines 1314 Electric cars (or EVs) dominate the eco-friendly co

25、nversation, dwarfing other topics like alternative fuels. But it is the conversation volume discrepancy between electric cars and hybrid cars that is most interesting. Often thought to be the two main options vying for supremacy in the eco-friendly car landscape of the future, electric and hybrid ca

26、rs have been moving in opposite directions over the last half decade. If hybrid cars were a bridge to get us to fully electric cars, it appears that, at least in consumers eyes, the time for 100% electric cars has arrived. In the next section well look at how the conversation around electric and hyb

27、rid vehicles has evolved since 2010. Eco-friendly conversation Tracking the social media discussion of green cars If you need proof that the age of eco-friendly autos is upon us, look no further than social media. Eco-friendly cars have been a popular topic on social platforms like Twitter and Faceb

28、ook for several years, but the conversation really started to spike in 2015. No single topic caused the surge in conversation volume; instead it was collection of related, often overlapping issues. Climate change, vehicle efficiency, renewable energy, and more are all part of the eco-friendly vehicl

29、e conversation. But when we dove in, we found that electric cars have become a driving force in the conversation, particularly within the last few years. Eco-Friendly Cars Discussion Trend Post Volume 1M 800K 600K 400K 200K 0 2010201120122013201420152016 Eco-Friendly Cars Share of Voice ULEV 1% 1 9

30、% 9 % 7 1 % E L E C T R I C C A R S H Y B R I D C A R S A L T F U E L 1516 Electric Cars vs Hybrid Cars Share of Voice Trend Share of Voice Comparison (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Electric Cars Hybrid Cars 2010201120122013201420152016 Electric vs. hybrid How have electric vehicles surged pas

31、t hybrids? Weve already shown that consumers are talking much more about EVs than hybrids, but the real question is: what are they saying? What can we learn about consumer opinion of hybrid and electric cars by analyzing the social conversation surrounding them? To start, lets look at how the conver

32、sation breakdown about electric and hybrid cars has changed over time. Between 2010 and 2016, electric car conversation has outpaced hybrid conversation at a rate of nearly three to one. And, if anything, the gulf is widening. Social volume clearly indicates that electric cars are winning the electr

33、ic-hybrid debate, but this is only part of the puzzle. To really understand the issue, we must dig deeper and answer the why part of the question: Why has the conversation around electric cars surged while the discussion of hybrids has stalled? Electric Cars vs Hybrid Cars Sentiment Trend Sentiment

34、Proportion (%) Electric CarsHybrid Cars Positive Negative Positive Negative 40 20 0 -20 -40 201020132016201020132016 Eco-Friendly Cars Discussion Topics Share of Voice Comparison (%) Expensive Battery replacement cost, pollution Insuffi cient charging infrastructure Fuel effi ciency Solar power Gove

35、rnment incentives Wind Power 14% 13% 12% 9% 6% 6% 3% Despite driving more of the conversation, electric cars are viewed more negatively overall than hybrid cars. This might not be as surprising as it seems. Fully electric cars have only recently emerged as viable commercial options, and consumers ar

36、e still acquainting themselves with EVs pros and cons compared to the more established hybrid model. The growing conversation volume about EVs on social suggests that consumers are more interested in them, but the increasingly negative sentiment indicates that they still have concerns and questions

37、about if EVs meet their needs. Unsurprisingly, the negative conversation surrounding electric cars seems to be increasingly focused on the concrete realities of owning an electric vehicle, including their (for now) higher average price tag. Indeed, when we look at the conversation topics for eco-fri

38、endly cars, we see a large volume of posts about the cost of ownership. 1718 Ryan Singel rsingel So rich folk get a giant tax credit for buying an electric car. Nothing for buying an electric bike, bike or bus pass OR not owning a car. 1:01 AM - 4 Jun 2015 Burton Reaves 2f9korf Honda electric car ge

39、ts 118 mpg, but costs add up 4:00 AM - 9 Jun 2012 Baetona 500 Champion KINGDUB24 Cool Facts: the government gives a $7500 tax check to anyone that buys an electric car 9:17 PM - 28 Jan 2014 Chris Martens GDC chrisamaphone why would i get tax credit for owning an alternative fuel car but none for not

40、 owning any car at all? 10:57 AM - 16 April 2012 Brett Ryan Bonowicz BRBonowicz The electric vehicle charger situation at LAX is awful. Two few charges, too many cars, and no way to move charged cars from spots. 10:57 AM - 16 April 2012 Chris Layfield piccolan Google made a self driving car? Thats a

41、wesome. Could adding wind turbines on electric cars increase drive time by charging while driving? 2:29 AM - 10 Oct 2010 Wes Brooks WesGBrooks What if electric cars had wind turbines to charge their batteries? As you drive, you create your own wind energy. #WhyNot? 8:41 PM - 26 Aug 2012 Andrew Freun

42、d Andrew_Freund capflowwatch in addition to the initial cost, electric car owners will have to spend $7500 on a new battery every 5 years. #tcot 1:51 PM - 3 Oct 2011 Cost Government incentives Charging infrastructure Wind power The reCYNstance cycyn Ive vowed for my future home to be solar powered,

43、but im still waiting for an AFFORDABLE electric car I can charge on solar as well. -_- 8:57 PM - 6 Nov 2015 What people are saying about eco-friendly cars 1920 But its not just about demographics. What can we learn by looking at the other interests of people in both camps? What else is the eco-frien

44、dly car audience interested in? Both audiences have traditional pop culture interests (One Direction, Sports Center, comic books, etc.) but consumers discussing electric cars are much more likely to be interested in environmental topics than those talking about hybrid cars renewable energy, climate

45、change, and sustainability are all twice as frequently discussed by the electric car audience than the hybrid audience. Interestingly, the EV audience is also more likely to be interested in the constitution and conservative politics. For two audiences that are thought to be largely overlapping, the

46、re are actually quite a few meaningful differences between EV and hybrid fans. Understanding who is talking about eco-friendly cars and what theyre saying is essential to help make sense of the trends affecting the auto industry, but is this all just talk? Or are the shifting conversation patterns a

47、ctually having an impact on sales? In the next section, well combine social data with actual sales data to analyze the intersection of social media conversation and eco-friendly vehicle sales. Whos talking about green cars? The demographics of the eco-friendly car discussion Weve talked about the ma

48、jor topics in the eco-friendly car conversation, but whos doing the talking? The short answer is older men. Our analysis showed that almost three-quarters of the people posting about the topic are over 35, and the same proportion are men. Interestingly, when we divide the conversation along the fami

49、liar lines of electric and hybrid we begin to see a little more granularity in the demographics. Specifically, we see that the hybrid audience is slightly younger and more female. Eco-Friendly Cars Age Distribution Age Proportion (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Electric CarsHybrid Cars 1718-2425-3435+1718-2425-3435+ 12% 10% 6% 72% 11% 17% 10% 62% Eco-Friendly Cars Gender Distribution Eco-Friendly Cars FemaleMale Electric Cars Hybrid Cars 73%27% 74%26% 70%30% Electric vs Hybrid Car Affi nities Electric CarsHybrid Cars One