2020 電信行業展望報告 - 印度品牌價值基金會（英文版）.pdf

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1、For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org October 2020 TELECOMMUNICATIONS Table of Contents Executive Summary.3 Advantage India.4 Market Overview .6 Recent Trends and Strategies .16 Growth Drivers.21 Opportunities.31 Key Industry Organisations.34 Useful Information.36 For updated informatio

2、n, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY India has the second largest telecom network in the world. The total subscriber base in the country stood at 1,160.52 million, as of June 30, 2020. Second largest subscriber base India has the second highest number of internet subscri

3、bers globally. Indias active internet subscription reached 530 million in 2018 at a run rate of 65 million users per year in the last two years. Second highest number of internet users Telecom penetration, also known as tele-density, has grown rapidly over the last few years. Tele-density grew from

4、18.23% in FY16 to 87.37% in FY20. Rising penetration rate As per a report by Ericsson, India had the worlds highest data usage per smartphone, averaging 9.8 GB per month in 2019. Availability of affordable smartphones and lower rates of data are expected to drive growth in the Indian telecom industr

5、y. Affordability and lower rates Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India Telecommunication ADVANTAGE INDIA For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 5 ADVANTAGE INDIA India ranks second in terms of number of telecommunicationsubscriptions,internet subscribers and app

6、downloads* globally. Moreover, India is also one of the largest data consumers globally. It has highest data usage per smartphone, averaging 9.8GB per month. In 2020-21, the Department of Telecommunications has been allocated Rs. 66,432 crore (US$ 9 billion), a 184% increase over the revised estimat

7、es of 2019-20. 61% allocation is towards revenue expenditure and the remaining 39% is towards capital expenditure. Capital and revenue expenditure have increased by 422% and 121%, respectively, over the revised estimates of 2019-20 The Government has been proactive in its efforts to transform India

8、into a global telecommunication hub. The Government of India unveiled National Digital Communications Policy 2018 in September 2018. The policy was meant to attract US$ 100 billion worth of investment and generate 4 million jobs in the sector by 2022. ADVANTAGE INDIA Source: Economic Times, TRAI, Ap

9、p Annie, Department of Telecommunications, PRS Legislative Research Notes: *Combined iOS App Store, Google Play and third-party android, Nokia MBiT Index 2018, PB- Petabytes In the era of 5G, telecom will earn 70% of its revenue from core beneficiaries of 5G. Currently, it is earning 30% from enterp

10、rises. The Government of India has introduced Digital India programme where sectors such as healthcare, retail, etc. will be connected through internet. For domestic consumption and export, Ericsson will start manufacturing 5G radio products in India. Telecommunication MARKET OVERVIEW For updated in

11、formation, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 7 THE TELECOM MARKET SPLIT INTO THREE SEGMENTS Source: Sutherland Research Telecom Mobile (wireless)Fixed-line (wireline) Comprises establishments operatingand maintainingswitching andtransmission facilities to provide direct communicationvia air

12、waves Internet services Consistofcompanies thatoperateand maintain switching and transmission facilities to providedirect communicationthrough landlines, microwave or acombinationof landlinesandsatellite link-ups Include Internet Service Providers(ISPs)that offer broadband internet connectionsthroug

13、h consumer and corporate channels For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 8 EXPANDING TELECOM SUBSCRIBER BASE Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, *- Till May 2020 India is currently the second largest telecommunication m

14、arket and has the second highest number of internet users in the world. Indias telephone subscriber base expanded at a CAGR of 2.70% between FY16-20 and reached 1,177.97 million in FY20. Tele-density (defined as the number of telephone connections for every 100 individuals) in India stood at 87.37%

15、in FY20. Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Growth in total subscribers and tele-density 1,058.86 1,194.58 1,206.22 1,183.51 1,177.97 1,160.52 83.36 92.98 92.84 90.11 87.37 85.85 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21* Telephone Subsc

16、riber (in million)Teledensity For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 9 WIRELESS AND RURAL SEGMENTS GAINING SHARE Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India The share of the wireless segment in Indias telecommunications market has increased steadily. Wireless segment a

17、ccounted for 98.28% of the total telephone subscriptions in FY20. Telecommunications penetration has seen a surge in rural areas with rural penetration gaining a significant pie of the overall subscription base. Rural subscribers form 44.27% of the total telephone subscribers in FY20 compared to 33.

18、35% in FY11. 98.28% 1.72% Wireline 95.90% 4.10% Wireless 55.73% 44.27% Rural 66.65% 33.35% Urban Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Urban and Rural share in telephone subscriptionsWireless and Wireline share in telephone subscriptions FY11FY20FY11 FY20 For updated information, please visit w

19、ww.ibef.orgTelecommunication 10 WIRELESS SUBSCRIPTIONS WITNESS ROBUST GROWTH OVER THE YEARS Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, CAGR is up to FY20, *- Till June 2020 Wireless subscription has grown robustly over the past few years. The growth in wi

20、reless subscriptions has led to a significant rise in wireless tele-density. In FY20, wireless subscription stood at 1,157.75 million, whereas, wireless tele-density reached 85.57%. Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Wireless subscription (in million) CAGR 2.88% 1,033.63 1,170.18 1,183.41 1,

21、161.81 1,157.75 1,160.52 83.36 92.98 92.84 90.11 85.8785.85 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21* Wireless Subscriptions (in million) Wireless Teledensity (in per cent) For updated information, please visit www.ibef.or

22、gTelecommunication 11 STRONG GROWTH IN BROADBAND DRIVES INTERNET ACCESS REVENUES 149.75 276.52 412.60 563.31 687.44 698.23 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21* Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, CAGR is up to FY20, #Includes Mobile devices users and Fixed wireless

23、subscribers, *- Till June 2020 Total broadband subscription in the country grew from 149.75 million in FY16 to 687.44 in FY20. The number of wired broadband subscriptions stood at 19.18 million in FY20. Wireless broadband subscribers#stood at 668.26 million in FY20. Visakhapatnam port traffic (milli

24、on tonnes)Broadband subscription (in million) CAGR 46.38% Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India; For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 12 342.65 422.19 493.96 636.73 743.19 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20* NUMBER OF INTERNET SUBSCRIBER

25、S INCREASING AT A FAST PACE Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Business Monitor International The number of internet subscribers in the country increased at a CAGR of 21.36% from FY16 to FY20 to reach 743.19 million in FY20. The number of internet subscribers in the country is expected t

26、o double by 2021 to 829 million#. Overall IP traffic is expected to grow four-fold at a CAGR of 30% by 2021. As of 2019, India holds the worlds highest data usage per smartphone, averaging 9.8 GB per month. It is expected to double to 18 GB by 2024. As of May 2020, India had over 500 million active

27、internet users (accessed Internet in the last one month). Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Internet subscription (in million) CAGR 21.36% Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate; BSNL - Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd, IP - Internet Protocol, CAGR is up to FY19, #as per CISCO, For updated inform

28、ation, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 13 EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN DATA CONSUMPTION Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Lok Sabha Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Total Wireless Data Usage (in Terabytes) Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, TB- Terabytes India holds

29、 the distinction of being the largest consumer of mobile data globally. Data consumption in the country has witnessed exponential growth over the course of the past few years. Total wireless data usage in India grew 9.35% quarterly to reach 22,854,131 TB in Q4FY20. The contribution of 3G and 4G data

30、 usage, in the total volume of wireless data usage, was 3.49% and 95.83%, respectively, in Q4FY20. Share of 2G data usage remained 0.67% in the same quarter. 10,418,076 12,549,891 14,253,256 15,850,560 17,940,576 19,838,886 20,899,931 22,854,131 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,00

31、0 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 14 TELECOM REVENUES 40.29 40.93 39.49 33.97 35.87 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of Indias Performance Indi

32、cator Report Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March), The Indian telecom sectors gross revenue declined from US$ 40.29 billion in FY16 to US$ 35.87 billion in FY20. Gross revenue of the telecom sector stood at Rs. 252,825 crore (US$ 35.87 billion) in FY20

33、. Indian telecom sectors revenue expanded at 5.58% in FY20 on the back of stabilising tariff wars and increased spending by subscribers due to minimum recharge plans. Visakhapatnam port traffic (million tonnes)Telecom Sector Gross Revenue (US$ billion) For updated information, please visit www.ibef.

34、orgTelecommunication 15 EMERGENCE OF TOWER INDUSTRY Source: Sutherland Research A surge in the subscriber base has necessitated network expansion covering a wider area, thereby creating a need for significant investment in telecom infrastructure. To curb cost and focus on core operations, telecom co

35、mpanies have been segregating their tower assets into separate companies. For example: Reliance Communications has decided to finalise a deal to sell its stake in Reliance Infratel. The value of the deal is around US$ 3.68 billion. Creating separate tower companies has helped telecom companies lower

36、 operating cost and improve capital structure. This has also provided an additional revenue stream. Inspired by the success seen by Indian players in towers business, most of the operators around the world are replicating the model. Rising competition Higher operating cost and debt burden Focus on t

37、ower sharing to reduce costs Segregation of towers into separate companies Emergence of Tower Industry Telecommunication RECENT TRENDS AND STRATEGIES For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 17 NOTABLE TRENDS IN THE INDIAN TELECOM SECTOR (1/2) The green telecom concept is

38、aimed at reducing carbon footprint of the telecom industry through lower energy consumption. The Government of Indias National Digital Communication Policy, which released in September 2018, envisaged strengthening of mobile tower industry by promoting and incentivising deployment of solar and green

39、 energy for telecom towers. The Government proposed a joint task force between Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) and Department of Telecommunication to promote green technology in the sector. Green telecom Source: News Source Over 62,443 uncovered villages in India will be provided with vi

40、llage telephone facility with subsidy support from the governments Universal Service Obligation Fund (thereby increasing rural tele-density). Broadband service provider, Excitel, plans to raise Rs. 200 crore (US$ 28.37 million) in funding as it plans to expand FTTH (fibre to the home) deployment on

41、its network and establish presence in 50 cities by December 2021. Expansion to rural market BWA technologies, such as WiMAX and LTE, is among the most recent and significant developments in wireless communication. Bharti Airtel VoLTE and Reliance Jio 4G services are live across all the 22 telecom ci

42、rcles since 2019. India is expected to be the second largest market in 5G services followed by China in the next 10 years. Emergence of BWA technologies IoT is the concept of electronically interconnected and integrated machines, which can help in gathering and sharing data. The Indian Government is

43、 planning to develop 100 smart city projects where IoT will play a vital role in development of those cities. Reliance Jio has partnered with Samsung Electronics to set up a nationwide IoT network. Jios IoT platform is ready to be commercially available in 2020. Internet of Things (IoT) Notes: BWA -

44、 Broadband Wireless Access, TRAI - Telecom Regulatory Authority of India For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 18 NOTABLE TRENDS IN THE INDIAN TELECOM SECTOR (2/2) Vodafone India and Idea have merged into Vodafone idea. Vodafone Idea is unifying assets and aims to compl

45、ete network integration by June 2020. Consolidation Source: Searching for New Frontiers of growth: Indian Banks- PwC, Reserve Bank of India, Press Information Bureau Between April 23 and July 16, 2020, Jio Platforms Ltd. sold 25.24% stake worth Rs. 1.52 trillion (US$ 21.57 billion) to various global

46、 investors in separate deals involving Facebook, Silver Lake, Vista, General Atlantic, Mubadala, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), TPG Capital, L. Catterton, Public Investment Fund (PIF), Intel Capital, Qualcomm Ventures and Google. This is the largest continuous fundraise by any company in the

47、 world. In April 2020, Vodafone Group Plc infused Rs. 1,530 crore (US$ 217.05 million) in Vodafone Idea as accelerated payment to help it manage its operations. Rising investment Department of Posts launched mobile banking for its saving account customers. By October 2019, the number of mobile walle

48、t transactions stood at 3.59 billion. As of January 2020, more than 542 banks have been permitted to provide mobile banking services in India. Mobile banking Reliance Jio Infocomm is going to expand its optical fibre network to over 1,100 cities under its Jio GigaFiber brand. In August 2019, Relianc

49、e commercially launched Jio GigaFiber as a wired broadband service. On September 21, 2020, Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi launched a project to connect all 45,945 villages in Bihar with optical fibre internet service. This project will be completed by March 31, 2021 at a cost of Rs. 1,000 crore (

50、US$ 135.97 million); Rs. 640 crore (US$ 87.01 million) of capital expenditure will be funded by Department of Telecommunications. Investment in optical fibre network For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgTelecommunication 19 Players differentiate themselves by providing different service