馮氏集團利豐研究中心：新冠肺炎疫情下的中國服裝市場（英文版）（11頁）.pdf

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1、Chinas apparel industry has taken a hard hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced brands and retailers to temporarily shut down many of their offline stores in the country, causing a slump in apparel sales. Yet despite the short-term disruptions caused by COVID-19, the apparel market has started

2、 recovering its growth momentum since 3Q20, soon after the country emerged from the pandemic. This is largely due to the governments rigorous measures to curb the virus, combined with a stimulus package to revive the economy which has successfully boosted consumer confidence and encouraged spending,

3、 contributing to a quick bounce back in the countrys apparel sales. Throughout the pandemic, we have seen the biggest sub-sector growth in sportswear. We expect that the overall health and wellness trend, likely spurred by increased attention to personal health due to the pandemic, will continue to

4、boost sportswear growth throughout 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, by integrating offline resources and online channels, several key sportswear brands have emerged as the success stories of COVID-19. Various brand successes (and failures) in the face of the pandemic have underlined the significance of d

5、igital transformation in the retail sector. More than ever, e-commerce is an increasingly significant key revenue stream, and brands that have successfully implemented their digital strategies for the COVID-19 market will continue to thrive in the new landscape. We expect a continuous upsurge in onl

6、ine sales and marketing through social platforms such as Douyin (for video content) and Wechat (through its in-platform apps). Furthermore, as offline stores have reopened with a new awareness of digital strategy, we also expect further developments in omni-channel integration and a combination of e

7、xperiential shopping with digital technologies. Helen Chin Vice President E: Brigitte Ng Research Analyst Fung Business Intelligence 1/F LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road Kowloon, Hong Kong T: (852) 2300 2470 F: (852) 2635 1598 E: W: http:/ China Apparel Market Series December 2020 Issue 1 The ye

8、ar in review: a brief account of the industry for the COVID year 2 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Growth turns negative due to COVID-19 Chinas apparel market was worth 2,185 billion yuan in 2019, up 5.2% yoy, continuing a steady growth mometum at a CAGR of 6.1% for 2014-2019 (Exhi

9、bit 1). However, the COVID-19 outbreak has struck a blow to the apparel market. During the outbreak, which began in late 2019, many apparel retailers temporarily shuttered their stores or reduced their operating hours for months due to mandated lockdown and social distancing measures. While brands a

10、nd retailers with a relatively mature online presence were able to mitigate the ensuing sales falloff as consumers were forced to stay indoors and go online, many bricks-and-motar players that relied heavily on offline sales were hit hard as a result of disrupted marketing campaigns and enforced sto

11、re closures. According to Chinas National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales growth of apparel and footwear for January through November 2020 declined by 7.9% yoy (Exhibit 2). Though the figures have kept improving since April, we still expect the apparel market to post a mid-single-digit negative g

12、rowth in total sales for 2020, adjust downward from prior estimates of around 3% yoy sales growth, in light of the previous coronavirus-induced slump. Exhibit 1: Apparel sales in China, 2014-2019 1,622.81,714.11,810.01,927.92,077.42,185.4 6.2% 5.6%5.6% 6.5% 7.8% 5.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10

13、% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Apparel salesyoy growth Source: Euromonitor International, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence Exhibit 2: Cumulative retail sales growth (year-to-date) of apparel and footwear, January - November 2020 Source: National Bur

14、eau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence -30.9% -32.2% -29.0% -23.5% -19.6% -17.5% -15.0% -12.4% -9.7% -7.9% -35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% FebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember OctoberNovember 3 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Ne

15、vertheless, with COVID-19 largely under control and the central governments recent stimulus measures, which included handing out billions of yuan worth of consumption vouchers across the country to spur consumer spending and in-store shopping, Chinese consumers began to show higher confidence and sp

16、ending intent in 3Q20. In August, the countrys total retail sales of consumer goods moved back into growth territory for the first time this year, rising 0.5% yoy, while retail sales of apparel and footwear items also delivered its first positive growth in 2020, gaining 4.2% yoy in the same month. F

17、ueled by consumers pent-up demand following months of lockdown, retail spending continued to pick up in September and October, with sales growth of apparel and footwear items jumping 8.3% yoy and 12.2% yoy, respectively (Exhibit 3). Exhibit 3: Total retail sales growth of consumer goods vs retail sa

18、les growth of apparel and footwear, January - November 2020 Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence -20.5% -15.8% -7.5% -2.8% -1.8% -1.1%0.5% 3.3% 4.3% 5.0% -30.9% -34.8% -18.5% -0.6% -0.1% -2.5% 4.2% 8.3% 12.2% 4.6% -40.0% -35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.

19、0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% January - February MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember Total retail sales growth of consumer goods, yoy Retail sales growth of apparel and footwear, yoy 4 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Major sub-sectors experience slower growt

20、h in 2019 and likely to show negative growth this year In 2019, all the four major sub-sectors in Chinas apparel market registered slower sales growth versus 2018 due to overall macroeconomic uncertainty. By category, womenswear remained the largest sub-sector of Chinas apparel market in terms of sa

21、les in 2019, while both sportswear and childrenswear continued to deliver double-digit yoy sales growth during the year, outpacing that of womenswear and manswear (Exhibit 4). Buffeted by the COVID-19 headwinds, the major sub-sectors, especially womenswear and menswear, are likely to show negative g

22、rowth in total sales for 2020. Exhibit 4: Sales of key sub-sectors, 2014-2019 Source: Euromonitor International, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Sales of womenswearSales of menswearSales of childrenswear S

23、ales of sportswearyoy growth of womenswearyoy growth of menswear yoy growth of childrenswearyoy growth of sportswear 5 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Overall market uncertainty and growing saturation have dampened the growth of womenswear. Sales growth of the sector weakened to 4.

24、4% yoy in 2019, falling from 7.6% yoy in 2018 and below the total apparel sales growth of 5.2% in 2019. Womenswear accounted for 47.7% of Chinas total apparel sales in 2019, slightly down from 48.1% in 2018 (Exhibit 5). Menswear has the second largest market share in Chinas apparel market, just behi

25、nd womenswear. Akin to the womenswear sector, menswear sector has also become increaseingly saturated, with sales growth decelerating to 3.9% yoy in 2019, down from 6.5% in 2018. The sector took up 27.2% of total apparel sales in 2019, inching down from 27.6% in 2018 (Exhibit 6). Exhibit 5: Sales of

26、 womenswear, 2014-2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence 783.8 828.9 873.8 928.5 999.1 1,042.9 7.4% 5.8% 5.4% 6.3% 7.6% 4.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Sales of womenswearyoy growth of wo

27、menswear(vs 2018: 48.1%) 2019: 47.7% Share of womenswear over total apparel sales Exhibit 6: Sales of menswear, 2014-2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence (vs 2018: 27.6%) 2019: 27.2% Share of menswear over total apparel sales 470.3 491.7 512.0 537.

28、7 572.6 594.9 3.8% 4.6% 4.1% 5.0% 6.5% 3.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Sales of menswearyoy growth of menswear 6 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Outperforming womenswear and menswear, childrenswear posted its fifth consec

29、utive year of double-digit growth in 2019, up 14.3% yoy, driven by the increase in per capita spending on childrenswear. Though Chinas birth rate continued to fall in 2019, the new generation of parents show greater willingness to spend on their children, with many of them willing to pay extra for s

30、afe and quality products for their children, underpinning the robust growth of the childrenswear sector (Exhibit 7). Sportswear continued to deliver the strongest sale growth among the four major sub- sectors, keeping up with a double-digit sales growth of 17.3% yoy in 2019. With Chinese consumers,

31、especially the younger generation, becoming significantly more health- conscious and exercising more frequently to bolster health during the pandemic, we remain optimistic about the growth potential of sportwear and expect the sector will maintain a relatively strong growth momentum over the next co

32、uple of years (Exhibit 8). Exhibit 8: Sales of sportswear, 2014-2019 Share of sportswear over total apparel sales Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence 148.3 166.9 190.4 221.5 270.0 316.6 10.1% 12.5% 14.1% 16.3% 21.9% 17.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 40

33、0 600 800 1000 1200 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Sales of sportswearyoy growth of sportswear(vs 2018: 12.7%) 2019: 14.5% 2019: 10.9% Exhibit 7: Sales of childrenswear, 2014-2019 Share of childrenswear over total apparel sales Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Bus

34、iness Intelligence (vs 2018: 10.1%) 127.1 140.0 157.1 180.0 209.1 239.1 9.2% 10.1% 12.2% 14.6% 16.2% 14.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 201420152016201720182019 billion yuan Sales of childrenswear yoy growth of childrenswear 7 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 In

35、ternet retailing to see explosive growth on COVID-19- spurred online shopping spree Apparel sales at department stores have been contracting over the years amid intensifying market competition and challenges from e-commerce players (Exhibit 9). Considering that online shopping has become the new nor

36、mal since the onset of COVID-19 and many consumers will retain their online shopping routines even after the pandemic, we believe Internet retailing will see a bumper growth in 2020 and become a major distribution channel for apparel and footwear moving forward. More brick-and- mortar retailers are

37、expected to double down on their online presence and digital marketing to capitalize on the online shopping trend. The growing shift towards online shopping is set to further accelerate digital transformation among apparel players, prompting brands and retailers to rethink their digital strategies i

38、n order to stay relevant and competitive in the market. To offset the in-store sales falloff and cash in on the COVID-19-spurred online shopping spree, many brands and retailers have shifted their sales online and adopted innovative digital marketing approaches such as leveraging online livestreamin

39、g, social media platforms, and private chat groups to keep customers engaged and market their products and services. As a case in point, Chinese apparel brand dzzit and its sister brand DAZZLE have added a new marketing function to their WeChat Mini Programs amid the outbreak of COVID-19. This new f

40、unction enables the brands to leverage product marketing events, WeChat Private Groups, WeChat Moments, forwarded Mini Program codes, livestreaming broadcasts, etc., to sell their products directly on their WeChat Mini Programs. Data shows that sales of DAZZLE and dzzit topped 4 million yuan on the

41、day the new function was launched. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Store-based retailing 87.6 81.8 76.6 72.3 68.8 65.7 Grocery retailers 4.5 3.7 3.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 Non-grocery retailers 44.5 42.5 40.9 39.6 38.7 38.0 Clothing and footwear specialist retailers 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.8 20.8 20.7 Leisure and pers

42、onal goods specialist retailers 11.4 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.2 Other non-grocery retailers 11.1 10.0 8.8 7.4 6.2 5.1 Mixed retailers 38.6 35.6 32.7 30.4 28.3 26.3 Department stores 38.6 35.6 32.7 30.4 28.3 26.3 Non-store retailing 12.4 18.2 23.4 27.7 31.2 34.3 Home shopping 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 In

43、ternet retailing 12.3 18.1 23.3 27.7 31.1 34.3 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Exhibit 9: Market share by distribution channel for apparel and footwear in China, 2014-2019 Source: National Bureau of Statistics China, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence 8 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December

44、 2020 Throughout the pandemic, more apparel players have set up accounts on Douyin, one of the most popular online video platforms in China, to keep their customers engaged and interested in their products. Douyin published the“White Papers on Douyin Accounts Opened by Apparel Companies 2020” in May

45、. Their data shows that since late March 2019, the number of Douyin accounts set up by apparel firms has increased by 5.36 times, with the clickthrough rate up by 1.96 times, the number of videos posted on the platform up by 5.18 times, interactions between users (likes, comments and views) up by 1.

46、84 times, and the number of followers up by 3.13 times. The report also indicated that most of the apparel companies launching on Douyin are from Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Sportswear players dominate Chinas Top 10 apparel brands In 2019, 70% of the brands that made the Top 10 list were sports

47、wear brands, including international players Adidas, Nike, Skechers, and Fila, as well as domestic players Anta, Li Ning and Xtep. With more people leaning toward healthier lifestyles and starting a fitness routine amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect sportwear players will continue to lead the Top

48、 10 list this year and next year and to see incremental demand among Chinese consumers. We also foresee that more non-sports brands will expand into the sportswear sector to capitalize on the increasing demand for workout and athletic clothes in the country. Rank Brand Market share yoy change (ppt)

49、Major category 1 Adidas 2.2% up 0.3 Sportswear 2 Nike 2.1% up 0.2 Sportswear 3 Uniqlo 1.2% up 0.2 Womenswear, Menswear, Childrenswear 4 HLA 1.1% unchanged Menswear 5 Anta 1.1% up 0.1 Sportswear 6 Skechers 0.8% up 0.2 Sportswear 7 Li Ning 0.7% up 0.1 Sportswear 8 Balabala 0.7% up 0.2 Childrenswear 9 Fila 0.6% up 0.2 Sportswear 10 Xtep 0.6% up 0.1 Sportswear Exhibit 10: Market share of Top 10 apparel brands in China, 2019 Source: Euromonitor International, compiled by Fung Business Intelligence 9 China Apparel Market Series Issue 1 December 2020 Most brands showed global negative growth in the