IEA：2021年可再生能源報告-至2026年的分析與預測（170頁）.pdf

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1、Renewables2021Analysis and forecast to 2026Renewables 2021 Abstract Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 3 IEA. All rights reserved. Abstract Renewables 2021 is the IEAs primary analysis on the sector, based on current policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable energ

2、y technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2026 while also exploring key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth. Renewables are the backbone of any energy transition to achieve net zero. As the world increasingly shifts away from carbon emitting fossil fuels,

3、understanding the current role renewables play in the decarbonisation of multiple sectors is key to ensuring a smooth pathway to net zero. While renewables continued to be deployed at a strong pace during the Covid-19 crisis, they face new opportunities and challenges. This years report frames curre

4、nt policy and market dynamics while placing the recent rise in energy and commodities prices in context. In addition to providing detailed market analysis and forecasts, Renewables 2021 also explores trends to watch including storage, producing hydrogen from renewable electricity, stimulus packages,

5、 aviation biofuels and residential heating. Renewables 2021 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 4 IEA. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. It was

6、 designed and directed by Heymi Bahar, Senior Analyst. The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues. The lead authors of the report were, Yasmina Abdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Trevor Criswell, Piotr Bojek, Franois Briens, Jeremy Moorhouse and Grecia Rodrguez Jimnez, who

7、was also responsible for data management. The report also benefited from analysis and drafting from Kazuhiro Kurumi and Kartik Veerakumar. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided strategic guidance and input to this work. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided b

8、y other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Keisuke Sadamori and Laura Cozzi. Other IEA colleagues who have made important contributions to this work include: Nadim Abilllama, Ali Al-Saffar, Carlos Alvarez Fernandez, Lucila Arboleya, Elisa Asmelash, Praveen

9、 Bains, Christophe Barret, Jose, Bermudez Menendez, Sylvia Beyer, Toril Bosoni, Stphanie Bouckaert, Davide dAmbrosio, Peter Fraser, Astha Gupta, Ilkka Hannula, Csar Alejandro Hernandez, Joerg Husar, Kevin Lane, Stefan Lorenczik, Dionisia Lyngopoulou, Yannick Monschauer, Apostolos Petropoulos, Kristi

10、ne Petrosyan, Uwe Remme, Luis Fernando Rosa, Michael Oppermann, Gabriel Saive, Jacopo Tattini, Jacob Teter, Nicole Thomas, Aad Van Bohemen, Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Timothy Goodson, Ariane Millot, Fabian Voswinkel, Brent Wanner, Daniel Wetzel. Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fund

11、amental to the report, with particular assistance provided by Mathilde Daugy, Julia Guyon, Nick Johnstone, Julian Prime, Cline Rouquette and Roberta Quadrelli. This work benefited from extensive review and comments from the IEA Standing Group on Long-Term Co-operation, IEA Renewable Energy Working P

12、arty, members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Board (RIAB) and experts from IEA partner countries and other international institutions. The work also benefited from Renewables 2021 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 5 IEA. All rights reserved. feedback by the IEA Committee on

13、Energy Research and Technology, IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (IEA TCPs). Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented and reviewed this report. They include: Countries: Austria (Austrian Energy Agency), Belgium (Federal Public Service Economy), Brazil (Empresa d

14、e Pesquisa Energtica), Canada (Natural Resources Canada), Chile (Ministry of Energy), Peoples Republic of China (Energy Research Institute ERI), Colombia (Unidad de Planeacin Minero Energtica), European Union (European Commission DG Energy), Finland ( Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment), Fr

15、ance (Ministry of Ecological and Solidarity Transition), Italy (National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA), Ireland (Sustainable Energy Authority SEAI), Japan (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry - METI), Spain (Institute for Energy Diversification an

16、d Energy Saving - IDAE), Switzerland (Federal Office of Energy), United States (Department of Energy). Technology Collaboration Programme (TCPs): Bioenergy TCP, Heat Pumping Technologies (HPT) TCP, Hydropower TCP, Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) TCP, Solar Heating and Cooling TCP, SolarPACES TCP,

17、Wind Energy TCP. Other Organisations: Abengoa Solar, Acciona Energa, American Clean Power Association (ACPA), American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Amrock Pty Ltd, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), Electric Power Development Company (JPOWER

18、), lectricit de France (EDF), ENEL, Energy Insights Ltd, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Commission, European Geothermal Energy Association (EGEC), European Bioenergy (AEBIOM), EA Energy Analyses, European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), European heating industry (EHI

19、), European Renewable Energy Foundation (EREF), European Renewable Ethanol Association (EPURE), European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF), First Solar, FTI Consulting, General Electric (GE), Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE). Global Wind Energy Association (GWEC), Iberdrola, Institute of

20、 Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ), International Hydropower Association (IHA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Neste, rsted, POET, Queens University, REN21, Siemens Renewables 2021 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 6 IEA.

21、All rights reserved. Gamesa, Solar Power Europe, SPV Market Research, TECSOL, SOLISART, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), US Grains Council, Universit Degli Studi di Firenze, Vestas, WindEurope, World Bank, World Bioenergy Association. The authors would also like to thank Justin

22、 French-Brooks for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdem, Christopher Gully, Jad Mouawad, Barbara Moure, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Robert Stone and Therese Walsh for their assistance. In addition, Ivo Let

23、ra from the Office of Management and Administration supported data management. Questions or comments? Please write to us at IEA-REMRiea.org Renewables 2021 Tables of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 7 IEA. All rights reserved. Table of contents Executive summary . 14 Improved policies

24、and COP26 climate goals are set to propel renewable electricity growth to new heights . 14 Despite rising prices, solar PV will set new records and wind will grow faster than over the previous five years . 15 Asia is set to overtake Europe as India and Indonesia lead renewed growth in global demand

25、for biofuels . 16 Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but its market share is not set to increase significantly . 16 High commodity and energy prices bring significant uncertainties . 17 Supported by the right policies, recovery spending on renewables could unleash a huge wave of private

26、 capital . 18 Faster growth of renewables is within reach but requires addressing persistent challenges . 18 Renewables penetration in to hard-to-decarbonise sectors is slowly emerging and promises a bright future . 19 Renewables need to grow faster than our forecasts to close the gap with a pathway

27、 to net zero by 2050. 19 Chapter 1. Renewable electricity . 21 Forecast summary . 21 Renewable capacity additions are set to grow faster than ever in the next five years, but the expansion trend is not on track to meet the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario . 21 Growing policy momentum worldwide is drivi

28、ng our forecast upward . 22 Government-led auction capacity is in slight decline, but is compensated by robust corporate PPA activity . 24 Top-10 countries continue to dominate renewables expansion, indicating that more diversity is needed . 25 Solar PV breaks new records in our forecast, despite ri

29、sing prices . 26 Low wind conditions and droughts in key markets hamper more rapid growth of renewable generation in 2021 . 30 Achieving the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario requires policy makers to significantly increase their ambition for all renewables . 34 Country and regional analysis . 35 China

30、. 35 United States . 37 Asia Pacific . 40 India . 41 Japan . 45 Korea . 46 ASEAN . 47 Australia . 50 Renewables 2021 Tables of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 8 IEA. All rights reserved. Europe . 52 Germany . 54 Spain . 56 France . 58 The Netherlands . 60 Turkey . 62 Poland . 64 Italy

31、 . 65 United Kingdom . 67 Denmark . 68 Belgium . 69 Latin America . 71 Sub-Saharan Africa . 78 Middle East and North Africa . 81 References . 84 Chapter 2. Biofuels . 89 Forecast summary . 89 Biofuels recover in 2021 despite high costs . 89 Asia to surpass European biofuel production before 2026 . 9

32、0 Ethanol and renewable diesel lead biofuels growth . 91 Four policy discussions to watch that will help double biofuel growth rates . 91 Demand and supply . 93 Asia surpasses European biofuel demand and supply . 95 Different fuels for different parts of the world . 96 Fuel demand and government pol

33、icies are driving different supply outcomes in different regions . 98 Biofuel demand growth doubles in the accelerated case . 102 Biofuels need to expand faster to align with the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario . 105 Trade . 107 Renewable diesel and biojet lead growth in net trade . 108 Singapore clim

34、bs to second largest exporter, while top importers remain the same . 109 Ethanol and biojet import demand drives trade growth in the accelerated case . 110 References . 111 Chapter 3. Renewable heat . 114 Recent trends . 114 Global progress on conversion to renewable heat has been limited . 114 Poli

35、cy update . 115 Renewable heat has gained some policy momentum, but not enough to put the heat sector on track to meet climate ambitions . 115 Outlook to 2026 . 122 Renewables 2021 Tables of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 9 IEA. All rights reserved. Buildings . 123 Industry . 125 Ref

36、erences . 129 Chapter 4. Renewable energy trends to watch . 133 What is the impact of increasing commodity and energy prices on solar PV, wind and biofuels? . 133 Wind and solar PV . 133 How do commodity prices affect the investment costs of solar PV and onshore wind? . 134 Rising energy prices and

37、trade policies put additional upward price pressure on wind and solar . 138 Despite rising equipment prices, wind and solar remain competitive . 140 How much will renewable energy benefit from global stimulus packages? . 145 Focus on the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility . 148 Could the green hydr

38、ogen boom lead to additional renewable capacity by 2026? . 151 How rapidly will the global electricity storage market grow by 2026? . 154 Are conditions right for biojet to take flight over the next five years? . 157 Condition 1 Confidence in biojet . 158 Condition 2 Costs . 159 Condition 3 Policies

39、 . 160 Condition 4 Production . 161 Condition 5 Feedstock sustainability . 162 Are renewable heating options cost-competitive with fossil fuels in the residential sector?. 163 Upfront costs . 163 Operating costs . 165 Overall cost-competitiveness of heating technologies . 166 References . 168 Genera

40、l annex . 172 Abbreviations and acronyms. 172 Units of measure . 173 List of boxes Box 2.1 India has tripled ethanol demand over the past five years, putting it on track to be the worlds third-largest ethanol consumer by 2026 . 100 List of figures Average annual renewable capacity additions and cumu

41、lative installed capacity, historical, forecasts and IEA Net Zero Scenario, 2009-2026 . 22 Renewables 2021 Tables of contents Analysis and forecasts to 2026 PAGE | 10 IEA. All rights reserved. IEA five-year renewable capacity forecasts by country/region, main case, 2021 and 2021 . 23 Renewable elect

42、ricity auctioned capacity by country/region, 2015-2021 (left) and by technology and corporate PPAs, 2015-2021 (right) . 24 Auction-awarded renewable capacity by contract duration, 2017-2021 . 25 Top-ten countries share of total installed renewable capacity, historical and main case forecast, 1991-20

43、26 . 26 Annual capacity additions of solar PV, wind and other renewables, main and accelerated cases, 2020-2026 . 27 Solar PV and onshore wind capacity additions, actual and forecast by country/region, 2015-2026 . 28 Hydropower and wind electricity generation growth in selected markets, 2015- 2020 a

44、verage and 2021 . 30 Renewable electricity generation by technology, 1990-2026 (left) and share by technology, 1990-2026 (right) . 31 Share of wind, solar PV, hydropower and all renewables in total electricity generation, 2000-2026 . 32 Wind and solar PV generation curtailment by country . 33 Averag

45、e annual capacity additions by technology, actual, forecasts and IEA Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2026 . 34 China renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and non-fossil energy target proposals for 2030 (right) . 35 United States renewable capacity additions, 2008-2026 (left) and solar PV and wind

46、PPA capacity and average contract price, 2014-2020 (right) . 37 United States solar and wind capacity additions, 2017-2026 (left) and low-carbon electricity target, 2020-2030 (right) . 39 Asia Pacific renewable capacity additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity additions by technology, 201

47、5-2026 (right) . 41 India renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and national targets for 2022 and 2030 (right) . 42 India renewable capacity awarded via auctions, 2018-2021 (left) and DISCOMs overdue payments to generators, 2019-2021 (right) . 43 Japan renewable capacity additions, 2009-202

48、6 (left) and renewable energy capacity targets, 2019-2030 (right) . 45 Korea renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and average revenue per MWh by technology, 2017-2020 (right) . 47 ASEAN renewable capacity additions by country, 2019-2026 (left) and capacity additions by technology, 2015-202

49、6 (right) . 49 Australia renewable capacity additions, 2009-2026 (left) and renewables curtailment, Q1 2019-Q2 2021 (right) . 50 EU member states installed renewable capacity and capacity expected in 2030 based on submitted NECPs . 52 Europe renewable capacity additions by country, 2009-2026 (left)

50、and capacity growth by technology, 2015-2026 (right) . 54 Germany renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and onshore wind auctions (right) . 55 Spain renewable capacity additions, 2019-2026 (left) and comparison of auction prices and wholesale electricity prices, 2018-2021 (right) . 57 Franc