氣候政策和經濟：來自歐洲碳定價倡議的證據.pdf

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1、Climate Policy and the Economy:Evidence from Europes Carbon Pricing InitiativesDiego R.K anzigNorthwestern University&NBERMaximilian KonradtGeneva Graduate InstituteIMFER Conference on The Future of Macroeconomic PolicyJune 2023The looming climate crisisClimate change is now at the top of the global

2、 policy agendaCarbon pricing is increasingly used as a tool to mitigate climate changeCarbon taxesCap-and-tradeWe know little about the effects of these policies in practiceEffective at reducing emissions?Short-term economic costs?How do different policies compare?1This paperComprehensive analysis o

3、f carbon pricing policies in EuropeWhy Europe?Global leader in climate policy with 20+years of experienceEU-wide emissions trading scheme(EU ETS)Many countries also enacted carbon taxes at national levelSufficient variation to identify the effects of interestKey challenge:Carbon prices not set in a

4、vacuumWe compare two empirical strategies:high-frequency identification and“control-based”approachProvide unified framework to study impact of cap-and-trade prices&carbon taxes2Main resultsCarbon pricing leads to emission reduction but comes at economic costEconomic effects larger for carbon market

5、than for national carbon taxesRobust to the identification strategy usedIn line with previous evidence in K anzig(2022)and Metcalf and Stock(forthcoming)We look into potential explanations for this findingRevenue recyclingCoverage and pass-throughSpillovers and leakageMonetary policy.3Main resultsUs

6、e of carbon revenues turns out to be crucialCarbon taxes often introduced as part of broader tax reform lowering income taxesEuropean carbon market has no direct measures to cushion effects on households Carbon taxes that do not recycle revenues display stronger economic effectsPass-through and cove

7、rage are also very importantEnergy sector covered under carbon market,excluded from carbon taxesEnergy,consumer and producer prices increase strongly after increase in EU ETSprice,muted price response after equivalent increase in national carbon taxesNational carbon taxes have limited effect on EU e

8、missions;potential carbon leakageBoth policies can be successful at reducing emissions but may have to becomplemented with other policies to cushion economic impacts and prevent leakage4Additional resultsWe explore the regional impacts of the European carbon marketEconomic impacts vary substantially

9、 by1.Share of free allowances2.Concentration of electricity marketsSouthern European countries most affected as they receive relatively few freeallowances and tend to have concentrated electricity marketsTodays presentation:focus on carbon tax versus cap-and-trade5IdentificationCarbon prices are end

10、ogenousSimultaneity:weak economy could induce government to reduce carbon priceConfounders:other shocks could affect both carbon price and the economyTwo approaches to identification1.High-frequency approach:isolate impact of policy news on carbon prices,use as IV2.Control-based approach:control for

11、 relevant economic variables to isolateplausibly exogenous variation in carbon prices6High-frequency identificationIdea:Collect relevant policy events and look at response of carbon prices in tightwindow around policy events(K anzig,2022)DetailsOnly possible for cap-and-trade where we have high-freq

12、uency price informationChallenge:high-frequency carbon policy surprises may be weak instruments at lowerfrequencies(quarterly/annual)By imposing VAR structure,we can obtain an estimate of a carbon policy shockShock measure can be aggregated to the frequency of interest,cpst=P12m=1cpsm,tEstimate dyna

13、mic causal effects using local projections:yi,t+h yi,t1=hi+hcpst+pXj=1hjyi,tp+xi,thx+i,t+h,7Carbon policy shocks-4-2024Percent2000200520102015YearFigure 1:Carbon Policy Shocks in the European Carbon Market8Control-based identificationIdea:Control for economic and financial variables to isolate some

14、plausiblyexogenous variation in carbon prices(Metcalf and Stock,forthcoming)e.g.driven by changes in political preferences for ambitious environmental policies,international climate policy pressure,or historically legislated schedulesEstimate dynamic causal effects of ETS price and carbon tax using

15、localprojections:yi,t+hyi,t1=hi+hetscpi,t+htaxctaxi,t+pXj=1hjyi,tp+xi,thx+zthz+i,t+hChallenges:For carbon market most variation at EU level:cannot control for time FE for carbon taxes we include time FE,results with controls very similarETS prices are market prices and thus endogeneity bigger concer

16、n instrument by carbon policy shock as robustness check9ETS price and carbon tax rates0510152025EUR/tCO22000200520102015YearETS price050100150200EUR/tCO22000200520102015YearDNKESPESTFINFRAGBRIRLISLLVANORPOLPRTSVNSWECarbon taxesFigure 2:Carbon Prices in EuropeNotes:The left panel shows the EU ETS pri

17、ce since its introduction in 2005.The right panelshows European carbon taxes.Both are expressed in euro per metric ton of CO2equivalent.10The effects of an EU ETS policy shock-1012Percent01234YearsHICP energy-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHICP-1.5-1-.50.5Percent0

18、1234YearsReal GDP-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 3:The Effects of an EU ETS Policy ShockNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.11The effects of an innovation in EU ETS prices-1012Percent012

19、34YearsHICP energy-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHICP-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsReal GDP-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 4:The Effects of a Euro Increase in EU ETS PricesNotes:Dark and

20、light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.12Environmental and economic impact of the carbon marketHigh-frequency and control-based approach produce consistent resultsSigns and magnitudes consistent,in line with results in K anzig(2022)But energy price increase much more persistent un

21、der control-based approach Different variation for identificationInstrumenting carbon price by carbon policy shocks also produces similar resultsMore13The overall effects of European carbon taxes-1012Percent01234YearsTime FEGlobal controlsHICP energy-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.4-.20.2.4.

22、6Percent01234YearsHICP-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsReal GDP-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 5:The Effects of a Euro Increase in European Carbon TaxesNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.14

23、.and in Northern and Western Europe-1012Percent01234YearsHICP energy-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHICP-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsReal GDP-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 6:The Effects

24、of a Euro Increase in Carbon Taxes in Northern and Western EuropeNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.Southern and Eastern Europe15Taking stockETS prices and carbon taxes lead to comparable emission reductions,but havevastly different economic consequencesWhat dri

25、ves these differences?Are carbon taxes the more desirable policy?Explore different explanations to account for differential impacts1.Revenue recycling2.Coverage and pass-through3.Spillovers and leakage4.Monetary policy16Fiscal policy and revenue recyclingTheory suggest that use of carbon revenues ca

26、n be crucial for transmission ofcarbon pricingAlso relevant in practiceCarbon taxes often introduced as part of broader tax reform lowering income taxesEuropean carbon market has no direct measures to cushion effects on householdsStudy how effects differ in countries that do recycle carbon revenues

27、to countriesthat dontRevenue recycling:Denmark,Finland,Norway and Sweden17Fiscal policy and revenue recycling01234Percent01234YearsNon-revenue recycling countriesRevenue recycling countriesHICP energy-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.50.51Percent01234YearsHICP-2-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234Year

28、sReal GDP-.20.2.4.6.8Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-3-2-101Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 7:The Role of Revenue RecyclingNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.18Fiscal policy and revenue recyclingCountries that do not recycle tax revenue

29、s experience stronger economic effectsBut emission reductions are comparable Recycling revenues doesnt offset emission reductions but cushions economic costs19Coverage and pass-throughStark difference in sectoral coverage of EU ETS and carbon taxesCarbon market covers power sector and energy-intensi

30、ve industryPass-through particularly strong in power sector(Fabra and Reguant,2014)Carbon taxes mainly apply to transportation and remaining industrial sectors20Coverage and pass-throughPanel A:EU ETS-1012Percent01234YearsHICP energy-4-202468Percent01234YearsOil price-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHI

31、CP-1012Percent01234YearsPPIPanel B:European carbon taxes-1012Percent01234YearsHICP energy-4-202468Percent01234YearsOil price-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHICP-1012Percent01234YearsPPIFigure 8:The Impact on PricesMore21Coverage and pass-throughEnergy prices increase strongly after increase in EU ETS

32、price and are passed onto producer and consumer pricesPrice responses muted after equivalent increase in national carbon taxes22Spillovers and leakageCarbon market is an EU-wide policy,carbon taxes levied at national levelStrong integration of EU countries may cushion economic effects of national po

33、liciesNational carbon tax policies may be subject to leakage,particularly in manufacturingWhat is the impact on EU-wide emissions?23Spillovers and leakagePanel A:EU ETS-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsTotal GHG emissionsPanel B:European carbon taxes-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsTotal GHG emissionsFigure 9:The Ef

34、fect on EU-wide GHG emissionsNational carbon taxes do not lead to a significant fall in EU-wide emissionsSome suggestive evidence for carbon leakage24Monetary policyMonetary policy could also play a role in accounting for the different effects ofEU-wide and national carbon pricing policiesHigher ETS

35、 prices lead to higher EU inflation monetary policy leans against these pressuresNational carbon taxes not inflationary(let alone at EU level)no monetary response25Monetary policyPanel A:EU ETS-.4-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsShort ratesLong ratesInterest ratesPanel B:European carbon taxes-.4-.

36、20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsShort ratesLong ratesInterest ratesFigure 10:The Effect on Interest RatesECB leans against inflationary pressure in carbon market,no monetary response tocarbon taxes26ConclusionNew evidence on the effects of carbon pricing in EuropePolicies successful in reducing emi

37、ssions,but comes at economic costEconomic costs crucially depend on coverage and revenue use Complement carbon pricing with other policies to cushion costs and preventleakageSupplement27Thank you!27Example eventsTable 1:Regulatory update events(extract)Carbon policy surprisesCPSurpriset,d=Fcarbont,d

38、 Fcarbont,d1Pelect,d1,where Ft,dis settlement price of the EUA front contract on event day d in month t and Pelect,d1is the wholesaleelectricity price on the day beforeBackInstrumenting ETS prices-1012Percent01234YearsHICP energy-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.4-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHIC

39、P-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsReal GDP-.20.2.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 11:The Effects of a Euro Increase in EU ETS Prices,IV ApproachNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.BackCarbon taxes i

40、n European regionsPanel A:Western and Northern Europe050100150200EUR/tCO22000200520102015YearDNKESTFINFRAGBRIRLISLLVANORSWECarbon taxesPanel B:Southern and Eastern Europe050100150200EUR/tCO22000200520102015YearESPPOLPRTSVNCarbon taxesFigure 12:Carbon Taxes in European RegionsBackEffect in Southern a

41、nd Eastern Europe0246810Percent01234YearsHICP energy-50510Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-10123Percent01234YearsHICP-20246Percent01234YearsReal GDP-2-1012Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-5051015Percent01234YearsIndustrial productionFigure 13:The Effects of a Euro Increase in Carbon Taxes

42、in Southern and Eastern EuropeNotes:Dark and light shaded areas are 68 and 95 percent confidence bands.BackETS shocks and oil pricesFigure 14:The Effect on Oil ProductionBackRegional impact of the carbon marketUntil now we focused on the average impact of carbon pricingHow do the effects of the EU E

43、TS vary across regions?To study this,we consider different exposure variabes and include an interactionterm in our local projections:yi,t+h yi,t1=hi+hcpst+hcpst exposuret01+.+i,t+hConsider two main exposure variables:Share of free allowancesConcentration of electricity marketThe role of free allowan

44、ces-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsHICP energy0.2.4.6.8Percent01234YearsReal GDP-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsGHG emissions-.5-.4-.3-.2-.10Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rateFigure 15:The Role of Free Allowances in the EU ETSThe role of market concentration-.20.2.4.6Percent01234YearsHICP energy-.6-.4-.

45、20.2Percent01234YearsReal GDP-.6-.4-.20.2.4Percent01234YearsGHG emissions0.1.2.3.4Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rateFigure 16:The role of Market Concentration in the EU ETSDistributional impactFirst quartileSecond quartile-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234YearsReal GDP-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234Years-.

46、20.2.4.6Percentage points01234YearsUnemployment rate-.20.2.4.6Percentage points01234Years Third quartileFourth quartile-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234Years-1.5-1-.50.5Percent01234Years-.20.2.4.6Percentage points01234Years-.20.2.4.6Percentage points01234Years Figure 17:The effect of the EU ETS by incomeDist

47、ributional impactTable 2:Summary Statistics of Interaction Variables by IncomeGDP per capita quartilesVariableFirstSecondThirdFourthShare of free allowances to total emissions102.4377.8384.5788.43(39.56)(36.27)(30.69)(28.58)Primary energy per electricity retailer4.259.019.526.30(1.91)(9.36)(6.78)(6.

48、34)Share of non-renewables in primary energy93.1089.8090.5675.62(6.47)(7.20)(5.27)(21.92)Share of services in value added66.3570.0571.8873.76(3.98)(6.32)(5.13)(7.81)Notes:All variables are expressed as sample averages per income quartile,with standard deviations in parentheses.Quartiles are construc

49、ted basedon 1998 real GDP per capita.First quartile:Bulgaria,Hungary,Lithuania,Latvia,Poland,Romania,Slovakia;second quartile:Cyprus,Czechia,Spain,Estonia,Greece,Portugal,Slovenia;third quartile:Belgium,Germany,Finland,France,United Kingdom,Ireland,Italy;fourth quartile:Austria,Denmark,Iceland,Luxembourg,Netherland,Norway,Sweden.Back