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1、October 2023Inside China with Moodys:Credit impact on oil and gas sectors from Chinas slowing growth and carbon transitionInside China with Moodys,October 20232 What are Moodys expectations for oil and gas demand and supply growth amid Chinas slowing economic growth and carbon transition?What is the
2、 associated credit impact on rated oil service producers?How will rising new energy vehicle penetration and increased refining capacity impact Chinese refiners and petrochemical companies?AgendaInside China with Moodys,October 20233Strong correlation between oil consumption and GDP-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2
3、0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022China oil consumption growth(%,left axis)Chinas GDP growth(%,right axis)Sources:Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 and IMFInside China with Mo
4、odys,October 20234China is highly dependent on imported oil and gasSource:Wind0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Oil dependency ratioGas dependency ratioInside China with Moodys,October 20235Domestic gas production
5、 will continue to outpace crude oil productionSource:Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Change in crude oil productionChange in natural gas productionInside China with
6、Moodys,October 20236Natural gas import declined in 2022 due to COVID 19,but has rebounded in 2023Source:General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of China335 381 419 462 506 542 513 508 44 54 69 90 97 102 121 109-12%0%12%24%36%48%60%72%010020030040050060020152016201720182019202020212
7、022Million tonnesImport of crude oil(left axis)Import of natural gas(left axis)Change in imports of crude oil(right axis)Change in imports of natural gas(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 20237NEV ownership as a%of Chinas total automobile fleet will rise to around 20%by 2030Note:ICE stands
8、 for internal combustion engine,and NEV stands for new energy vehicles.Chinas definition of NEV includes battery electric vehicles,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.Sources:Chinas Ministry of Public Security and Moodys Investors Service estimates0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001
9、502002503003504004502017201820192020202120222023E2026E2030EIn million unitsICE ownership volume(left axis)NEV ownership volume(left axis)NEV ownership as%of total auto fleet(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 20238Key drivers and risks for Chinese oilfield service providersSource:Moodys Inv
10、estors ServiceInside China with Moodys,October 20239COSL generates most of its revenue from China0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20182019202020212022Domestic revenue%China Oilfield Services Limited(COSL)Source:Companys annual reportInside China with Moodys,October 202310Antons revenue exposure to C
11、hina is higher than HilongsSource:Companies annual reports0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20182019202020212022Domestic revenue%AntonHilongInside China with Moodys,October 202311Production of Sinopecs petrochemical products has outpaced its refined oil productsNote:Production volume in above chart r
12、efers to aggregate production volumes.The base year for comparison is 2012.For example,the aggregate production volume of synthetic resin from PetroChina and Sinopec Corp in 2022 was 1.55 times that in 2012.We take synthetic resin as proxy of Sinopecs and PetroChinas petrochemical products.Sources:P
13、etroChinas and Sinopec Corps annual reports;Moodys Investors Service1.0 x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.6x20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Production volume increase of gasoline,diesel and kerosene using 2012 as the base yearProduction volume increase of synthetic resin using 2012 as the base year
14、Inside China with Moodys,October 202312Exports of refined oil products will likely recover moderately in 2023Sources:General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of China,Wind0%4%8%12%16%20%02040608010020152016201720182019202020212022Jan-Jul 2023In million tonnesExport of gasoline,diese
15、l and kerosene(left axis)Portion of export to total domestic ouput volume(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 202313Chinas production capacity in several key basic chemicals and polymers will rise further this yearPTA:Purified terephthalic acidSource:China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Fed
16、eration(CPCIF)20304050607080EthylenePropyleneParaxylenePolyethylenePolypropylenePTAProduction capacity(in million tons per year)202120222023(F)Inside China with Moodys,October 202314Naphtha crackers are at cost disadvantage compared to gas crackers Source:Bloomberg-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200Jan-21M
17、ay-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23$per tonUS Ethane Mont BelvieuSingapore Naphtha spot FOBInside China with Moodys,October 202315Chinese NOCs have set their carbon transition targetsSources:Company reportsQ&APlease submit your questions via the Q&A box on your screenInside China with Moodys,O
18、ctober 202317 2023 Moodys Corporation,Moodys Investors Service,Inc.,Moodys Analytics,Inc.and/or their licensors and affiliates(collectively,“MOODYS”).All rights reserved.CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIE
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37、.have,prior to assignment of any credit rating,agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service,Inc.for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from$1,000 to approximately$5,000,000.MCO and Moodys Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence o
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44、a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization(“NRSRO”).Therefore,credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings.Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and,consequently,the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U
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