穆迪：2023年中國經濟增長放緩和碳轉型對石油和天然氣行業的信貸影響（英文版）（17頁）.pdf

《穆迪：2023年中國經濟增長放緩和碳轉型對石油和天然氣行業的信貸影響（英文版）（17頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《穆迪：2023年中國經濟增長放緩和碳轉型對石油和天然氣行業的信貸影響（英文版）（17頁）.pdf（17頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、October 2023Inside China with Moodys:Credit impact on oil and gas sectors from Chinas slowing growth and carbon transitionInside China with Moodys,October 20232 What are Moodys expectations for oil and gas demand and supply growth amid Chinas slowing economic growth and carbon transition?What is the

2、 associated credit impact on rated oil service producers?How will rising new energy vehicle penetration and increased refining capacity impact Chinese refiners and petrochemical companies?AgendaInside China with Moodys,October 20233Strong correlation between oil consumption and GDP-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2

3、0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022China oil consumption growth(%,left axis)Chinas GDP growth(%,right axis)Sources:Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 and IMFInside China with Mo

4、odys,October 20234China is highly dependent on imported oil and gasSource:Wind0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Oil dependency ratioGas dependency ratioInside China with Moodys,October 20235Domestic gas production

5、 will continue to outpace crude oil productionSource:Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Change in crude oil productionChange in natural gas productionInside China with

6、Moodys,October 20236Natural gas import declined in 2022 due to COVID 19,but has rebounded in 2023Source:General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of China335 381 419 462 506 542 513 508 44 54 69 90 97 102 121 109-12%0%12%24%36%48%60%72%010020030040050060020152016201720182019202020212

7、022Million tonnesImport of crude oil(left axis)Import of natural gas(left axis)Change in imports of crude oil(right axis)Change in imports of natural gas(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 20237NEV ownership as a%of Chinas total automobile fleet will rise to around 20%by 2030Note:ICE stands

8、 for internal combustion engine,and NEV stands for new energy vehicles.Chinas definition of NEV includes battery electric vehicles,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.Sources:Chinas Ministry of Public Security and Moodys Investors Service estimates0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001

9、502002503003504004502017201820192020202120222023E2026E2030EIn million unitsICE ownership volume(left axis)NEV ownership volume(left axis)NEV ownership as%of total auto fleet(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 20238Key drivers and risks for Chinese oilfield service providersSource:Moodys Inv

10、estors ServiceInside China with Moodys,October 20239COSL generates most of its revenue from China0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20182019202020212022Domestic revenue%China Oilfield Services Limited(COSL)Source:Companys annual reportInside China with Moodys,October 202310Antons revenue exposure to C

11、hina is higher than HilongsSource:Companies annual reports0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20182019202020212022Domestic revenue%AntonHilongInside China with Moodys,October 202311Production of Sinopecs petrochemical products has outpaced its refined oil productsNote:Production volume in above chart r

12、efers to aggregate production volumes.The base year for comparison is 2012.For example,the aggregate production volume of synthetic resin from PetroChina and Sinopec Corp in 2022 was 1.55 times that in 2012.We take synthetic resin as proxy of Sinopecs and PetroChinas petrochemical products.Sources:P

13、etroChinas and Sinopec Corps annual reports;Moodys Investors Service1.0 x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.6x20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Production volume increase of gasoline,diesel and kerosene using 2012 as the base yearProduction volume increase of synthetic resin using 2012 as the base year

14、Inside China with Moodys,October 202312Exports of refined oil products will likely recover moderately in 2023Sources:General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of China,Wind0%4%8%12%16%20%02040608010020152016201720182019202020212022Jan-Jul 2023In million tonnesExport of gasoline,diese

15、l and kerosene(left axis)Portion of export to total domestic ouput volume(right axis)Inside China with Moodys,October 202313Chinas production capacity in several key basic chemicals and polymers will rise further this yearPTA:Purified terephthalic acidSource:China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Fed

16、eration(CPCIF)20304050607080EthylenePropyleneParaxylenePolyethylenePolypropylenePTAProduction capacity(in million tons per year)202120222023(F)Inside China with Moodys,October 202314Naphtha crackers are at cost disadvantage compared to gas crackers Source:Bloomberg-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200Jan-21M

17、ay-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23$per tonUS Ethane Mont BelvieuSingapore Naphtha spot FOBInside China with Moodys,October 202315Chinese NOCs have set their carbon transition targetsSources:Company reportsQ&APlease submit your questions via the Q&A box on your screenInside China with Moodys,O

18、ctober 202317 2023 Moodys Corporation,Moodys Investors Service,Inc.,Moodys Analytics,Inc.and/or their licensors and affiliates(collectively,“MOODYS”).All rights reserved.CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIE

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20、 DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT.SEE APPLICABLE MOODYS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS.CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK,INCLUDING BUT

21、 NOT LIMITED TO:LIQUIDITY RISK,MARKET VALUE RISK,OR PRICE VOLATILITY.CREDIT RATINGS,NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS(“ASSESSMENTS”),AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT.MOODYS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CRE

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28、IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable.Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors,however,all information contained herein is provided“AS IS”without warr

29、anty of any kind.MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including,when appropriate,independent third-party sources.However,MOODYS is not an auditor and cannot in every

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33、y law,MOODYS and its directors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity,including but not limited to by any negligence(but excluding fraud,willful misconduct or any other type

34、of liability that,for the avoidance of doubt,by law cannot be excluded)on the part of,or any contingency within or beyond the control of,MOODYS or any of its directors,officers,employees,agents,representatives,licensors or suppliers,arising from or in connection with the information contained herein

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36、EVER.Moodys Investors Service,Inc.,a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation(“MCO”),hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities(including corporate and municipal bonds,debentures,notes and commercial paper)and preferred stock rated by Moodys Investors Service,Inc

37、.have,prior to assignment of any credit rating,agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service,Inc.for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from$1,000 to approximately$5,000,000.MCO and Moodys Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence o

38、f Moodys Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes.Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities,and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moodys Investors Service and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownersh

39、ip interest in MCO of more than 5%,is posted annually at under the heading“Investor Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”Additional terms for Australia only:Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License

40、 of MOODYS affiliate,Moodys Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moodys Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569(as applicable).This document is intended to be provided only to“wholesale clients”within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Ac

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42、etail clients”within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.MOODYS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer,not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.Additional terms for

43、 Japan only:Moodys Japan K.K.(“MJKK”)is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan G.K.,which is wholly-owned by Moodys Overseas Holdings Inc.,a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.Moodys SF Japan K.K.(“MSFJ”)is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK.MSFJ is not

44、a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization(“NRSRO”).Therefore,credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings.Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and,consequently,the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U

45、.S.laws.MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner(Ratings)No.2 and 3 respectively.MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities(including corporate and municipal b

46、onds,debentures,notes and commercial paper)and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)have,prior to assignment of any credit rating,agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ(as applicable)for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY100,000 to approximately JPY550,00

47、0,000.MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.This publication does not announce a credit rating action.For any credit ratings referenced in this publication,please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.