國際天然氣聯盟：2024年全球天然氣報告（英文版）（84頁）.pdf

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1、ForewordGlobal Gas Report 20242We present this flagship report on the state of the gas markets,which supply more than one-fifth of the worlds energy needs during a time of extreme energy uncertainty.The findings show rising energy demand across all regions,record-breaking coal emissions,and extreme

2、weather conditions,demonstrating an urgent need for more policy clarity around energy supply planning.Strong demand growth for gas underpins its crucial role in reducing global emissions,providing flexibility and resilience,enabling efficient,affordable,sustainable development,and supporting greater

3、 adoption of critical clean energy technologies,including the scaling up of renewables.However,the investment in natural gas and low-CO2 gaseous energy technologies is falling short of demand growth,which must be reversed.The energy transition represents a unique challenge for mankind.A journey that

4、 will not be linear,marked by great aspirations and many hurdles,from geopolitical tensions to technology disruptions and unforeseeable global economy developments.In this continuously evolving transformation,natural gas and related infrastructure represents a critical element of sustainable resilie

5、ncy for the global energy system,while new green and low carbon molecules will play an essential role to achieve a just and technologically neutral transition.Natural gas is priced at 10-50 USD/MWh to end users,significantly below oil products at typically 100 USD/MWh.Natural gas is also cheaper tha

6、n coal in America,and similar or slightly more expensive other places.However,CO2 emissions from gas is only 50%of the coal emissions and 68%of oil emissions per energy unit.The share of gas being accessible for global trade as LNG has grown from 0%in 1965 to 12%today and will be 18%within a decade.

7、Thus,being cheaper and cleaner than coal and oil and accessible globally,gas has doubled its market share versus coal and oil from 1965 to 2020 and is now 30%of the fossil fuel mix.In our scenarios for future energy mix,natural gas will be larger than coal by 2030 and larger than oil by 2050.It is a

8、 pleasure and honor for us to support IGU and Snam in detailing the current market trends and path forward for natural gas.Li YalanPresident,IGUJarand RystadChief Executive Officer,Rystad EnergyStefano VenierChief Executive Officer,SnamExecutive SummaryGlobal gas demand sustained its growth in 2023,

9、increasing 59 Bcm(1.5%)from 2022.This trend is expected to continue in 2024 with a further estimated 87 Bcm(2.1%)rise in demand.Asias strong demand growth continues to drive growth in global gas imports,while growth in exports from North America and the Middle East have been in the driving seat of t

10、he global supply growth.Although global gas markets have stabilised from record volatility and prices seen in 2022,they remain fragile as concerns about energy security persist.As 2023 became another record emissions and coal use year,it is important to highlight that shifting from coal to natural g

11、as is a readily available,cost-effective,and affordable way to cut emissions by around 50%immediately.It is crucial to emphasize that this step should be taken alongside,not instead of,ongoing efforts to expand renewable energy,enhance efficiency,and scale up all emission-free energy sources that ar

12、e technologically and economically viable.It is also crucial to underline the importance of low-CO2 gas technologies such as biomethane,zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen,and CCUS.Currently,biomethane production is concentrated in North America and Europe,with emerging production markets in China and India.Z

13、ero-and low-CO2 hydrogen production,albeit small in scale,is poised for a rapid annual growth of 45%from 2023 to 2030,if pre-FID projects currently in the pipeline materialise.Today,both biomethane and hydrogen volumes are small,with biomethane constituting roughly 1%of global natural gas supply vol

14、ume and hydrogen not yet sufficiently present in the energy use market.Similarly,CO2 capture capacity(CCUS)is set to grow by 42%annually,with 86%of the 2030 pipeline dependent on pre-FID projects.These technologies are expected to play critical roles in the decarbonisation of energy,as they enable l

15、ow-CO2,reliable,and flexible gaseous energy to fuel sustainable,secure,and affordable future energy systems.The importance of ensuring the continued flow of dense,efficient,flexible,and reliable gaseous energy is particularly pertinent,as global energy demand has been consistently growing,not only i

16、n the developing but also in the developed regions of the world,despite energy efficiency gains and structural decline in some sectors.Moreover,recent global shifts,such as the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence(AI)and rising temperatures,will spur power demand from data centres and cool

17、ing respectively,also impacting gas demand dynamics.These trends are challenging the assumptions of energy demand growth drop off that various institutions make in their demand scenarios.If global demand continues to grow as it has in recent years,future demand is likely to overshoot many of the wor

18、lds major 2030 demand reduction targets.If energy demand were to maintain the growth rate observed between 2021-2024,the approximately 2.7%annual increase towards 2030 would significantly outpace most major scenarios assessed in this report(ranging from 0.2%to 1.7%).Even if global energy demand cont

19、inued to develop at the relatively lower rate of growth observed in the past 10 years,the 1.8%annual increase would surpass scenario assumptions.In this era of uncertainty,continued investment in gas and its infrastructure,accelerating investments in low-and zero CO2 gas technologies along with othe

20、r clean energy supply,and ramping up energy saving,is essential for providing reliable,sustainable,and affordable energy into the future.Global Gas Report 20243I:II:III:IV:V:VI:VII:I:II:III:I:II:III:IV:V:Key Messages 51/Natural gas market fundamentals overview 162/Evolution of low-CO2 and decarbonis

21、ed gas technologies 40 3/Operating in an era of high energy uncertainty 59 ContentsGlobal Gas Report 20244Key changes in the natural gas market 18Natural gas market demand 20Natural gas market supply 27Natural gas market prices and trade 28Global regasification capacity growth from 2022 33Tracking e

22、missions 34Natural gas market policy impact on selected regions 38 Biomethane and synthetic methane 42Zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen and its derivatives 46Carbon capture utilisation and storage(CCUS)52 Mitigating risk in an era of high energy uncertainty:scenarios vs.forecasts 62Regional energy demand tr

23、ends vs.scenarios 63Electrification and new energy demand trends 69Filling the supply and investment gap in an era of energy uncertainty 70Conclusion 80Key MessagesGlobal Gas Report 20245Key MessagesFigure 1:Global gas demand,split by regionSource:Rystad EnergyBcm27.6%27.6%26.5%28.1%28.0%27.6%22.9%2

24、3.5%24.1%24.1%24.6%25.1%14.4%14.9%14.7%14.7%15.2%15.6%14.0%13.8%13.6%12.4%11.5%11.3%11.4%11.0%11.7%11.3%11.4%11.3%4.3%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.2%4.1%4.1%3.8%4.1%3.8%3.9%3.7%1.4%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.2%3,9263,8594,0693,9924,0514,13805001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500201920202021202220232024FNorth AmericaAs

25、iaMiddle EastEuropeRussiaAfricaSouth AmericaAustraliaGlobal Gas Report 20246North AmericaRussiaAsiaAfricaMiddle EastSouth AmericaEuropeAustraliaGlobal gas demand sustained its growth in 2023,increasing 59 Bcm (1.5%)and is expected to continue growing in 2024 with a further 87 Bcm(2.1%)increase in de

26、mand.In 2023,consumption increased in several regions,with Asia up by 32 Bcm(3.3%),the Middle East by 28 Bcm(4.7%),and North America by 14 Bcm(1.2%),outpacing a fall in consumption in Europe by 31 Bcm(-6.3%)and in Australia by 2 Bcm(-3.7%).In 2024,demand growth is expected to continue to be driven b

27、y Asia,up by 43 Bcm(4.3%),the Middle East,up by 29 Bcm(4.7%),and North America,up by 8 Bcm(0.7%).Global gas production also grew,rising 19 Bcm(0.5%)in 2023 relative to 2022 levels and is expected to continue growing in 2024,with supply increasing by 96 Bcm(2.4%).Growth in 2023 is largely attributabl

28、e to increases in North America by 52 Bcm(4.3%),the Middle East by 16 Bcm(1.9%)and Asia by 3 Bcm(0.8%),offsetting a supply decline in Europe of 18 Bcm(-7.8%).Growth in 2024 is expected to be driven by the Middle East by 26 Bcm(3.7%),Asia by 17 Bcm(2.4%)and North America by 12 Bcm(1.0%).Modest growth

29、 is also expected from South America with an additional 4 Bcm(2.6%)of production increase,alongside Europe by 2 Bcm(0.9%),Australia by 1 Bcm(0.7%)and Africa by 1 Bcm(0.5%).Global Gas Report 20247Asia continues to drive import demand growth globally,Figure 2:Gas demand,production,and import/export vo

30、lumes,split by region-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800EuropeAsiaAustraliaAfricaRussiaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth AmericaIMPORTERIMPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTERBalancedImplied import needs20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024FSourc

31、e:Rystad EnergyKey MessagesEuropeAsiaAustraliaAfricaRussiaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth AmericaIMPORTERIMPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTERBalancedImplied import needsProductionDemandImplied export potentialBcmwith North America and the Middle East growing exports to balance global suppl

32、y and demand.Implied import needs in Asia climbed by 29 Bcm(10.5%)in 2023 year-on-year,as countries like China boost gas consumption,a trend expected to continue into 2024.In contrast,European demand fell due to reduced demand from the power and industrial sectors,as well as lower seasonal needs.Thi

33、s coincided with higher renewable and nuclear power generation.Implied import needs in Europe fell by 14 Bcm(-5.2%)in 2023 and are expected to remain flat in 2024.North Americas export potential jumped by a notable 37 Bcm,as shale gas production boomed in the Permian,Haynesville and Eagle Ford plays

34、,outpacing consumption.This trend is expected to soften in 2024,with some reversal of import potential growth.South America will continue to see a balanced market into 2024,as demand and supply match at continent level.Global Gas Report 20248Global gas markets remain fragile.While global gas markets

35、 have calmed down from record volatility in 2022,they remain fragile as energy security concerns persist.Volatility levels remain above their levels during the pre-pandemic era.This is evident from market reaction to the Israel-Hamas war beginning in October 2023,and from implied Title Transfer Faci

36、lity(TTF)volatility levels as seen in the chart above being 1.7x higher in the first half of 2024 relative 2019(full-year)levels.Gas prices have also lowered since,especially in Europe,though they remain sensitive due to tight balances,with no major new supply additions expected to come online in 20

37、24.Any significant shift in demand or supply has the potential to disrupt the current balance in place.Figure 3:International natural gas price volatility on a monthly basis(USD(real)per MMBtu)02468101214Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21

38、Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Henry HubLNG Northeast AsiaTTFOnset of Russia-Ukraine war heightens concerns over Russian pipeline supplyReports of sabotage on the Nord Stream pipelines and threats to energy infrastructure a

39、s Europe roiled under heatwavesOnset of Israel-Hamas war results in price pressure with shut-in of Tamar gas fieldInitial fears about strikes at Australian liquefaction facilitiesShortage of spot cargoes amidst extreme cold causes price spikeAverage volatility levels in 1H 2024 were still 1.7x highe

40、r than in 2019-Source:Rystad Energy,Argus(LNG Northeast Asia)Key MessagesStandard deviation of daily prices,calculated on a monthly basis(USD(real)per MMBtu)Henry HubLNG Northeast AsiaTTFGlobal Gas Report 20249Current levels of investment in natural gas supply are insufficient to meet the demand tre

41、nd towards 20301.The historical trend of gas demand growth from economic development and improving living standards in the developing world,alongside new consumption trends and continued growth in energy use in the developed world,are keeping gas demand strong,while producing capacity and infrastruc

42、ture investment are not keeping pace.The 2021-2024F gas consumption trendline on the chart shows a growth rate of 0.7%,in contrast with the demand decline trend assumed in the IEAs APS,NZE and Rystad Energys 1.5-degree scenarios.The longer 2014-2024F growth rate of 2.0%further departs from the IEAs

43、STEPS and Rystad Energy 1.6-degree scenarios.If the more conservative trend of gas demand growth between 2021-2024F continues to 2030,and no new producing capacity is added,the gap in supply of around 927 Bcm(22%2)is expected in 2030.When considering trendline from 2014-2024F,this gap increases to a

44、round 1300 Bcm(29%2)in 2030,showing the extent to which supply needs to be scaled up if imbalances between gas demand trajectory and investments in gas production and infrastructure are not tackled.The world finds itself in a period of high energy uncertainty in 2024,and prudent policy to reconcile

45、scenario assumptions with current trends will be essential to manage this uncertainty and ensure timely investment in needed supply resources.It is essential to balance current growth and development trends with long-term sustainability goals to effectively reduce emissions,while maintaining secure,

46、reliable,and affordable energy systems.Figure 4:Global gas demand-supply balance under various degree scenarios,supply split by lifecycle-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000201020152020202520302035204020452050AbandonedProducingUnder developmentDiscoveryHistoricalBcmIEA Net ZeroEmissionsIEA Announced Pledg

47、esRystad Energy2.2-degrees Rystad Energy1.9-degrees Rystad Energy1.6-degrees IEA Stated PoliciesRystad Energy1.5-degrees 2021-2024F:0.7%ScenariosHistorical2014-2024F2:2.1%Trendlines based on historical growth rates1Source:Rystad Energy,IEAThis analysis considers two trendlines:the 2021-2024F trendli

48、ne and the 2014-2024F trendline.Each trendline uses a consistent annual growth rate towards 2030,which is calculated as the average of the annual growth rates of the historical years considered.The 2014-2024F trendline excludes Covid-19 impacted years 2020 and 2021 from the average growth rate calcu

49、lation to adjust for the unusually low and high growth rates observed in the respective years.Definitions:(a)Abandoned denotes all abandoned fields which have stopped producing or where production was suspended by owners.(b)Producing includes all the assets that are currently producing.Also,refinery

50、 gains are included.(c)Under development denotes assets for which development has been approved by companies&government,but production has not yet started.(d)Discovery includes assets where discoveries have been made but are not yet in a phase of further development(appraisal,field evaluation).Note:

51、1 2 Key Messages12This is apparent when comparing gas production capacity with no additional investment towards 2030 to demand in IEAs Stated Policies,Announced Policies and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenarios from the 2023 Outlook,and Rystad Energys latest 1.6-degrees,1.9-degrees and 2.2-degrees s

52、cenarios.Rystad Energys degree scenarios assume that global warming will be limited to the specified degree Celsius.This percentage refers to the gap between the historical trendline and 2030 production volumes given no new investment in gas supply,i.e.the shortfall in gas production volumes from cu

53、rrently operational and sanctioned projects in 2030,against the historical trendline.Global Gas Report 202410Global biomethane production is gaining momentum,with new centres of production emerging beyond the traditional market leaders of the EU and the US.Biomethane offers a non-fossil renewably pr

54、oduced alternative to natural gas,which can be injected into existing natural gas infrastructure and used in the same way.Given that biomethane is often produced by capturing waste biogas from different parts of the economy,it has a high circular economy value.Biomethane production in the EU grew ra

55、pidly at an annual rate of 24%from 2019 to 2022;however,to deliver on the EUs 2030 target of 35 Bcm,this pace needs to be accelerated to 36%from 2023 to 2030.North America continues to be another leader in biomethane production,and positive momentum has also been spreading to emerging production mar

56、kets in China and India.The current production levels of biomethane still remain significantly under their commercial potential,and this is a readily available opportunity to reduce global energy emissions that should be capitalised on.Supporting policy will continue to play an important role,includ

57、ing removing barriers,creating an incentivised environment to connect producers to existing natural gas grids to accelerate the adoption of biomethane,and facilitating efficient distribution and enabling economies of scale.Map 1:Global biomethane production,split by regionSource:Rystad Energy;WBA;EB

58、A;ArgusNote Key MessagesThe latest biomethane production values in each region are presented,using 2023 data where available;otherwise,2022 data are used.Combined production value for biogas and biomethane values are provided for Asia where biomethane-only production data are unavailable.*Zero-and l

59、ow-CO2 hydrogen production is expected to scale rapidly Key MessagesFigure 5:Global unrisked zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen production capacity,known vs.aspiredMillion tonnes of blue/green hydrogen02040608010012014020202021202220232024202520262027202820292030OperationalFID/Under ConstructionPre-FIDRystad

60、 Energy1.6-degrees Rystad Energy1.9-degrees Rystad Energy2.2-degrees ForecastIEA Announced Pledges IEA Stated PoliciesIEA Net Zero EmissionsSource:Rystad Energy;IEA Unrisked zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen production capacity refers to the total production capacity of announced zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen p

61、rojects based on project owners communicated production capacity and start-up date,without adjusting for the risk(unrisked)related to project delays,regulatory permits and commerciality.Ranges for the different degree scenarios reflects variation in zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen displacement rate in exi

62、sting uses of grey hydrogen,that include but are not limited to conventional methanol-based chemicals,fertilisers,refineries and plastic.Note:Global Gas Report 202411towards 2030 from its small base of 4 to 5 Mtpa,at 45%per annum,though nearly 90%of the projected 2030 production capacity is still in

63、 early planning stages,creating uncertainty over its growth momentum.While the pace of FIDs has been increasing recently,the number of FIDs made today remains low.For instance,FIDs for hydrogen generated using natural gas and carbon capture(blue)taken since 2023 account for around 76%of total blue h

64、ydrogen FIDs taken since 2019(in terms of project capacity).Similarly,the capacity of hydrogen generated using renewable energy sources(green)projects that reached FID from 2023 onwards formed around 52%of total green hydrogen capacity that reached FID since the beginning of green hydrogen developme

65、nt.Historically,the pace of green hydrogen production build-out had lagged blue hydrogen development,with green hydrogen accounting for only around 4%(around 0.2 Mtpa)of total zero-and low-CO hydrogen production today.This could change moving forward.Based on announced addition,the annual growth rat

66、e of green hydrogen capacity from 2023 to 2030(115%)is almost four-fold that of blue hydrogen(31%).Despite the strong growth momentum,the announced increase in green and blue hydrogen production capacity by 2030 remains inadequate to meet the decarbonisation trajectory under the IEA net zero scenari

67、o.This calls for more robust policy support for zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen to prevent delays and ensure timely completion.Recently,this came in the form of increasingly colour agnostic hydrogen policies,that focused more on the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced rather than its production meth

68、ods.In this context,natural gas production and infrastructure will play a critical role in enabling the rollout of zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen.Natural gas can support the scaling up of blue hydrogen production by providing a readily available feedstock,and repurposing natural gas infrastructure can he

69、lp reduce costs associated with the development of hydrogen infrastructure.Global Gas Report 202412Key MessagesCO2 capture capacity is a fundamental technology for the energy transition to succeed,and its development has been picking up steam,but the rate and scale remain orders of magnitude below w

70、hat is needed.Based on announced projects,CCS capacity is set to grow by 42%annually from 2023 to 2030,14 times higher than the growth rate of 3%annually from 2020 to 2023.However,86%of 2030s CO2 capture capacity pipeline is driven by pre-FID projects that have faced delays.This is primarily caused

71、by prolonged front-end engineering and design(FEED)study phases,expected to affect one-third of projects this decade,as most commercial CCUS projects are still in the early stages of development.Medium and large CCUS hub projects increasingly developed to take advantage of the flexibility and econom

72、ies of scale gained would be particularly impacted as they require extensive early assessment studies due to their scale and complexity.Thus,achieving the CO2 capture capacity required under Rystad Energys 1.6-degree scenario remains uncertain.However,this could be mitigated by stronger collaboratio

73、n between industry players and governments to accelerate permitting processes and improve bankability of projects.Natural gas infrastructure will be crucial for the wider adoption of low-CO2 and renewable gases.The integration of biomethane chemically identical to natural gas into the existing energ

74、y system as well as its efficient distribution,will require a connection to the gas grid.Similarly,repurposed gas infrastructure will play a key role in enabling the large-scale roll-out of zero-and low-CO2 hydrogen,by supporting scalable production and distribution.Lastly,existing gas infrastructur

75、e can be leveraged in the transport of captured CO2,with depleted gas fields serving as potential storage sites.Overall,gas infrastructure is critical for the efficient integration of low-carbon and renewable gases into existing energy systems.Figure 6:Global unrisked CO2 capture capacity,known vs a

76、spiredMillion tonnes of CO2per year02004006008001,0001,20020202021202220232024202520262027202820292030OperationalFID/Under ConstructionPre-FIDForecastRystad Energy1.6-degrees Rystad Energy1.9-degrees Rystad Energy2.2-degrees IEA Announced Pledges IEA StatedPoliciesIEA Net Zero EmissionsSource:Rystad

77、 Energy;IEA Unrisked CO2 capture capacity refers to the total capacity of announced CO2 capture projects based on project owners communicated capacity and start-up date,without adjusting for the risk related to project delays,regulatory permits and commerciality.Note:Global Gas Report 202413Key Mess

78、agesGlobal energy demand is continuously growing in both developing and developed regions,overshooting energy transition scenario assumptions,and impacting demand drivers for natural gas,and compounding global risk of energy shortages.Europes overall energy demand has increased over the past five ye

79、ars,notwithstanding policy incentives to increase efficiency and continued industrial decline.North American energy demand has surpassed 2019 levels,driven by the transport sector and now new demand from data centres.Asia has seen much more robust energy demand growth,particularly in the industrial

80、sectors of India and China.Africas energy demand has grown faster than most regions,led by urban development,but still remains below the rate it would need to achieve to reach full energy access for its population.In both South America and Africa,equitable electricity access remains a significant ch

81、allenge.Should energy demand continue to evolve as it has in the recent past,none of the key regions are likely to reach 2030 targets outlined in different demand scenarios3.Figure 7:Final energy demand split by sector,region and share of electricity in total demand0501001502002502019202020212022202

82、32024F201920202021202220232024F201920202021202220232024F201920202021202220232024F201920202021202220232024FIndustrialBuildingsTransportationEnergy sectorForest&landEJEuropeAfricaSouth AmericaAsia2021-2024F CAGR:2.4%2021-2024F CAGR:2.9%2021-2024F CAGR:3.0%2021-2024F CAGR:2.8%2021-2024F CAGR:2.9%Source

83、:Rystad Energy3This analysis primarily considers 7 energy demand scenarios from 3 institutes:IEAs Stated Policies,Announced Policies and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenarios from the 2023 Outlook,IEEJs Reference Case scenario from the 2024 Outlook,and Rystad Energys latest 1.6-degrees,1.9-degrees an

84、d 2.2-degrees scenarios.Rystad Energys degree scenarios assume that global warming will be limited to the specified degree Celsius.Final energy demand is most reflective of global energy consumption trends,and has seen a consistent pace of growth with primary energy demand.Note*BuildingsTransportati

85、onEnergy sectorForest&landEJEuropeAfricaSouth AmericaAsia24%North AmericaShare of Electricity(%)in YrBuildingsTransportationEnergy sectorForest&landEJEuropeAfricaSouth AmericaAsia20%20%21%21%20%20%22%24%23%24%24%24%North America20%21%22%21%21%21%18%18%19%19%19%18%10%10%10%10%10%10%Key MessagesNew so

86、urces of power demand are emerging across regions and sectors,led by global events and shifts such as the adoption of energy-intensive AI technology and increasing temperatures(driving cooling demand)-this trend is expected to have implications on the gas market dynamics.AI-focused data centres are

87、driving a surge in electricity demand,especially in the US.Extreme weather conditions,such as heatwaves,are significantly increasing global cooling demand,especially in developing countries with low but growing air conditioner ownership,like India.As cooling becomes the fastest-growing use of energy

88、 in buildings,it puts upward pressure on electricity demand carving a space for gas to meet these needs.Simultaneously,the rapid adoption of heat pumps,despite being on average more energy-efficient compared to incumbent heating systems,may increase electricity demand particularly during the heating

89、 season,thus also impacting system peaking.The continuous electrification of the transport sector,led by China,is also set to increase electricity demand.Electric vehicles are set to displace demand for gasoline,with natural gas stepping in to relieve pressure on power grids worldwide.Figure 8:Elect

90、rification and new energy demand trends Heat pump adoption set to spike winter peak electricity demandStrong momentum for EV adoption increases power demandSource:Rystad EnergyGlobal Gas Report 202414Strong momentum for EV adoption increases power demandMonthly EV share of sales per country for sele

91、cted countriesHeat pump adoption set to spike winter peak electricity demandAnnual heat pump sales,split by region,2019-2023GWGrowing AI-focused data centres contribute to electricity demand surgeElectricity demand from US data centres,2019-2024F666768697071727373798910111513014102040608010012014016

92、0201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024F+2%+12%Figure:Electricity demand from US data centres,2019-2024 FGWTWhHeat pump adoption set to spike winter peak electricity demand224222222224250120140160180200220240260JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2019-2023 Range2024Figure:Month

93、ly peak power demand in India,2019-2024GWSummer monthsHigher cooling demand driven by extreme weather events challenges power systems%shareGWMonthly peak power demand in India,2019-202415%16%19%25%25%15%16%19%25%25%27%28%28%27%24%8%8%7%7%6%8%8%7%7%6%84859911110802040608010020192020202120222023Others

94、JapanUnited StatesEuropean UnionChinaFigure:Annual heat pump sales,split by region,2019 2023GWGWNote:1 2 Uncertainty over future energy demand adds risk to the supply mix and infrastructure needs.In an era of increasing energy uncertainty,where scenario assumptions of energy demand may understate th

95、e pace of current trends,natural gas will be essential as a reliable and scalable energy source for a balanced and future-ready energy system that considers sustainability,security,and affordability.The future of energy demand is uncertain,influenced by factors such as economic growth,energy efficie

96、ncy,emergence of energy-intensive technologies and growing incidence of extreme weather events.If energy demand continues to evolve as in recent years,it may diverge significantly from scenario pathways,potentially leading to a gap between demand and planned supply of gas and low-CO2 energy.Alongsid

97、e growing demand,global annual emissions have been rising and are set to exceed 2.5oC of warming on their current trajectory.Balancing current growth trends with long-term goals calls for the planning of a resilient and adaptable energy system which makes use of a diverse and scalable mix of energy

98、sources,including renewables and decarbonised gases.Natural gas has the greatest potential to complement renewables in this energy transition,providing the reliability needed to balance intermittency and scalability issues.However,the decisions on investment in supply that could be available in 5-6

99、years from now should be made today.Key MessagesFigure 9:Global final energy demand growth trends,historical vs.aspiredThis analysis considers two trendlines:the 2021-2024F and the 2014-2024F trendline.Each uses a consistent annual growth rate towards 2030,which is calculated as the average of the a

100、nnual growth rates of the historical years considered.The 2014-2024F trendline excludes COVID impacted years 2020 and 2021 from the average growth rate calculation to adjust for the unusually low and high growth rates observed in the respective years.Source:Rystad Energy;IEAGlobal Gas Report 202415E

101、J1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202416Highlight1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal regasification capacity has seen a rapid expansion since 2022,with the 2022 to 2024F Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR)expected to be 7.7%,building on an already strong 2019-20

102、21 CAGR of 4.8%.For Europe,this was mainly driven by the need to pivot from Russian pipeline gas after the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022,with the largest regasification additions in Germany(25 Bcm),the Netherlands(12 Bcm),followed by Spain and Figure 10:Global LNG receiving capacity,split by region0

103、2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600201920202021202220232024FAsiaEuropeSouth AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaBcmRegional 2022-2024F CAGR*6.3%14.4%12.1%0.0%4.6%Source:Rystad EnergyNote Africa not shown in CAGR calculation as capacity increased from 0 to 3 Bcm in 2024F.2019-2021 CAGR:4.8%2022-2024F C

104、AGR:7.7%*Italy.In Asia,regasification capacity growth was largely attributable to imports meeting increasing natural gas demand in China and India,which has also resulted in a built-out of liquefaction capacity in other regions such as the US.The development of LNG infrastructure and trade helps to

105、create a more liquid market,bringing gas where it is most needed.With increasing interconnectivity of the LNG market,regional demand or supply shocks can become more likely to impact global prices.Global Gas Report 202417I.Key changes in the natural gas marketThrough 2023 and to July 2024,the global

106、 gas market has seen significant relief from the historically high prices and volatility of 2022.However,fragility of the gas market is still top-of-mind,as energy security concerns persist amidst still tight supply,and both prices and volatility remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic era.Glob

107、al gas demand in 2023 increased by 59 Bcm(1.5%)relative to 2022 levels,driven by demand growth in Asia,North America,and the Middle East,which outpaced a notable demand decline in Europe.Global gas production grew by a modest 19 Bcm(0.5%),attributable to supply increases from North America,counterac

108、ted by production declines in Europe and Russia.The gas market was relatively calm in 2023,with a downward price trend,which was temporarily counteracted in late August 2023,when fears about potential strikes at Australian liquefaction facilities drove prices up.Later in the year,the onset of the Is

109、rael-Hamas war also brought about a brief spell of volatility with the October temporary shut-in of the Tamar gas field in Israel.The last quarter of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 saw prices calming again,due to low seasonal demand with mild weather and full storage levels in Europe,at the start of

110、 the heating season.However,prices have climbed from March to July 2024,reacting to demand spikes,supply fluctuations,and geopolitical risks,including heatwaves in the US and across Asia,ongoing geopolitical Global Gas Report 2024181/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewTable 1:Key 2023 year-on-y

111、ear changes in the global gas market Source:Rystad EnergyBcm31.33.527.611.0%changeEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAfricaMiddle EastRussiaAustralia1.2%2.8%4.7%3.916.131.60.4%4.3%2.4%3.1%33.20.92.6%6.0%3.9%15.55.23.02.4%5.6%2.9%ConsumptionProductionGross importsGross exportsRegions31.73.3%Bcm%change6.

112、3%3.013.82.3%Bcm%changeBcm%change4.72.44.5%2.4%17.752.42.05.21.2%15.5%7.6%1.3%1.5%5.0%45.57.9%0.5%3.94.53.3%5.9%58.65.714.1%3.74.72.3%AsiaWorld81.6%1.5%18.92.5%33.22.5%3.4%17.40.95.90.22.7%2.324.31/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewTable 2:Key 2024 year-on-year changes in the global gas market

113、 Source:Rystad EnergyGlobal Gas Report 202419tensions in the Middle East and Europe,and fluctuations and outages in Norwegian,Australian and American supply.Global trade in 2023 also grew,with net pipeline trade growing to 475 Bcm and LNG trade rising to 537 Bcm.The top three largest natural gas exp

114、orters in 2023 were Russia at 139 Bcm,Qatar at 128 Bcm,and the US at 127 Bcm,while the top three largest importers were China at 160 Bcm,Japan at 91 Bcm and Germany at 77 Bcm.This chapter examines key developments in global gas markets in 2023 and includes a near-term forecast for 2024(2024F),which

115、is compiled using available actual data up to July 2024 and Rystad Energys forecast to the end of the year.It offers a comprehensive overview and analysis of the forces at play and their impact on the global gas market today and for the near term.Bcm3.62.129.04.1%changeEuropeNorth AmericaSouth Ameri

116、caAfricaMiddle EastRussiaAustralia0.7%0.7%4.7%1.325.932.42.4%1.0%3.7%0.7%33.22.22.6%14.2%7.7%7.74.13.73.0%2.6%2.4%ConsumptionProductionGross importsGross exportsRegions43.24.3%Bcm%change0.8%16.67.81.3%Bcm%changeBcm%change1.10.00.0%0.9%1.912.54.01.21.3%11.2%0.9%2.6%0.5%5.4%10.62.2%2.4%0.64.63.8%5.4%8

117、6.88.37.5%2.92.87.7%AsiaWorld71.8%2.1%95.82.5%34.92.7%5.0%35.20.95.11.821.3%7.411.1II.Natural gas market demand Globala.Russia553 496 465 469589Map 2:World map with gas demand by regionGlobal gas demand grew by about 59 Bcm(1.5%)in 2023 year-on-year(y-o-y),driven largely by demand growth in Asia at

118、32 Bcm(3.3%),the Middle East at 28 Bcm(4.7%),and North America at 14 Bcm(1.2%),outpacing drops in consumption in Europe of 31 Bcm(-6.3%)and Australia at 2 Bcm(-3.7%).In 2024F,about 87 Bcm(2.1%)of further demand growth is expected,driven by Asia at 43 Bcm(4.3%),the Middle East at 29 Bcm(4.7%),and Nor

119、th America at 8 Bcm(0.7%).In terms of sectors,industrial,power,and transport demand for gas grew the most in 2023,at 28 Bcm(2.6%),17 Bcm(1.7%),and 7 Bcm(7.5%)respectively.This growth is expected to continue at a similar rate in 2024.Asia saw 32 Bcm(3.3%)of demand growth,with industrial and city gas

120、needs in China counterbalancing declines in Japan and South Korea,attributable to the latter scaling up their nuclear generation.The strong growth trend in China has 1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202420Year2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm1,088 1,067 1,079 1,121 1,135 1

121、,143North AmericaYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm159 146 165 153 157 155South AmericaYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm550 534 553 496 465 469EuropeYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm170 158 167 164 169 170AfricaYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm567 574 598 589 616 645Middle EastYear201

122、9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm446 423 475 452 463 467RussiaYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm898 906 980 964 995 1,038AsiaYear2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FBcm54 51 52 53 51 51AustraliaSource:Rystad Energy1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewSource:Rystad EnergyFigure 11:Global gas demand,sp

123、lit by demand sector*Bcm34.5%34.4%33.9%34.1%34.0%33.7%27.2%27.4%27.2%27.2%27.5%27.8%14.3%14.7%14.9%14.7%14.3%14.3%7.6%7.6%7.8%7.8%8.1%7.9%6.3%5.8%6.0%6.1%5.9%5.9%6.3%5.8%6.0%6.1%5.9%5.9%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.5%2.6%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.9%2.9%2.9%3,9263,8594,0693,9924,0514,13805001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,

124、0004,500201920202021202220232024FPowerIndustrialResidentialOthersCommercialHeatTransportationFuel GasGlobal Gas Report 202421Power:Gas used as fuel in the electric power sector(including combined heat and power plants)Industrial:Gas used in manufacturing establishments,refining,mining,mineral extrac

125、tion,agriculture,forestry,fisheries,chemicals and other industrial activities.Residential:Gas used in private dwellings,including apartments,for heating,air-conditioning,cooking,water heating,and other household uses.Commercial:Gas used in the sale of goods or services for the same purposes as for t

126、he residential sector.Transportation:Gas used in well,field,and lease operations,field compressor and gas processing plants.Heat:Gas used in boilers and pumps for district heating.Fuel Gas:Gas used in well,field,and lease operations,field compressor and gas processing plants.Others:Gas used in non-s

127、pecified sectors,or used in the operation of transporting gas,primarily in transmission and distribution pipelines.Note*continued and accelerated in 2024,with an expected 34 Bcm of new demand this year.Southeast Asia experienced slight demand growth in 2023 with 2 Bcm of additional demand from Malay

128、sia,driven by industry,and 2 Bcm from Thailand,driven by the power sector.South Asia also saw a boost in demand,responding to lower prices,notably India with 7 Bcm of growth.The Middle East in 2023 realised 28 Bcm(4.7%)of demand growth,from both power and industrial use driven by rising consumption

129、in Iran,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,Oman and Qatar.North America experienced 14 Bcm(1.2%)of demand growth in 2023,as low Henry Hub prices encouraged greater gas consumption,particularly within the power industry while coal consumption declined.Figure 12:Global gas demand,split by regionBcm27.6%27.6%26.5%28.1%

130、28.0%27.6%22.9%23.5%24.1%24.1%24.6%25.1%14.4%14.9%14.7%14.7%15.2%15.6%14.0%13.8%13.6%12.4%11.5%11.3%11.4%11.0%11.7%11.3%11.4%11.3%4.3%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.2%4.1%4.1%3.8%4.1%3.8%3.9%3.7%1.4%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.2%3,9263,8594,0693,9924,0514,13805001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500201920202021202220232024

131、FNorth AmericaAsiaMiddle EastEuropeRussiaAfricaSouth AmericaAustraliaSource:Rystad EnergyFigure 13:2023 Global gas demand year-on-year change,split by sectorBcm5035291353-2-31-60-40-200204060RussiaMiddle EastAsiaNorth AmericaAfricaSouth AmericaAustraliaEuropePowerIndustrialResidentialOthersCommercia

132、lHeatTransportationFuel GasSource:Rystad Energy1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewAfrica,South America and Australia had less of an absolute impact on demand growth globally in 2023,with Africas regional growth of 5 Bcm(2.8%)being driven by power and industrial sectors in Egypt and Algeria.So

133、uth America saw an uptick of 3 Bcm(2.3%)y-o-y,attributable to growth in Argentina and Colombia offsetting a decline in Brazil.Australia had a small reduction in gas demand of 2 Bcm(-4.5%)due to a milder winter and ample coal and renewables generation in its east coast market.In contrast,European dem

134、and dropped by 31 Bcm(-6.3%)as total power demand fell,and renewable output climbed,amidst reduced demand in the industrial sector.Europeb.Source:Rystad EnergyFigure 14:Europe gas demand,split by sectorOver half of Europes gas demand reduction was in the power sector,alongside a combined decline of

135、9 Bcm(-5.0%)in the residential and commercial sectors,driven by a milder winter,and a 5 Bcm(-4.0%)fall in industrial gas demand.Natural gas demand decline is anticipated to reverse slightly in 2024 as Europe and global markets adjust to a changed supply picture.This is likely to result in a slight g

136、rowth of 4 Bcm(0.9%),attributable to a marginal rebound in industrial demand and consumption in the residential and commercial sectors,outpacing the continued decline in the power sector.The overall decline in power demand coupled with this increased renewable generation has driven a 17 Bcm(11.7%)de

137、cline in gas demand for the power sector in 2023 relative to 2022.The decline is expected to continue into 2024 as Europe is expected to surpass 50%of power generation from renewables for the first time this year.However,this decline is slated to occur at a slower rate,reaching 5 Bcm(-3.5%)relative

138、to 2023.Bcm29.0%28.8%27.4%28.9%27.3%25.9%25.8%26.0%25.2%24.0%24.6%25.6%24.2%24.7%26.6%25.4%25.7%25.5%3.5%3.5%3.6%4.0%4.3%4.3%10.7%10.4%11.0%11.3%11.4%11.2%2.9%3.1%2.6%2.7%2.7%3.1%1.2%0.9%1.2%1.2%1.5%1.5%2.7%2.7%2.3%2.6%2.5%2.8%5505345534964654690100200300400500600700201920202021202220232024FPowerInd

139、ustrialResidentialOthersCommercialHeatTransportationFuel GasGlobal Gas Report 202422Global Gas Report 2024191/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewFigure 15:Key European industrial plants with shut-in production in 2022NetherlandsAdel|AluminiumOCI|AmmoniaOCI BioMCN|MethanolYara Sluiskil|AmmoniaUK

140、CF fertilisers|AmmoniaBelgiumBASF Antwerp|AmmoniaNyrstar|SmeltingYara Tertre|AmmoniaFranceYara LeHavre|AmmoniaGermanyArcelorMittal|SteelBASF ludwigshafen|EthyleneDow Leuna and Schkopau|PolyethyleneSKW|AmmoniaSpeira|AluminiumSpainArcelorMittal Sestao|SteelAzuliber(Pamesa)|Atomized ClayFerroglobe|Meta

141、lMichelin|TireSaicagroup|PaperCroatiaPetrokemija|UreaTurkeyPetkimAliaga|AcnRenault|CarsRomaniaAzomures|Ammonia,An,Npk,Uan,Urea,MelaminePolandAnwil|Nitrogen FertilizerGrupaAzoty|Ammonia,Malamine,Npk,Urea,Capro,Nylon 6LithuaniaAchema|UAN,Ammonia,Urea,AN,CANNorwayYara Porsgrunn|AmmoniaAustriaBASF Antwe

142、rp|AmmoniaNyrstar|SmeltingYara Tertre|AmmoniaSloveniaTalum|AluminiumItalyTrinseoRho|MMAYara Ferrara|Ammonia,UreaCase study:Industrial demand decline in EuropeThe energy supply crisis in Europe led to a significant decline in gas demand used for industrial processes as feedstock,for heating,and for o

143、n-site power generation,as a response to high prices and high volatility in gas markets.The European industrial sector was already grappling with challenges remaining from the Covid-19 pandemic,including supply chain bottlenecks,rising costs,and material shortages.The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war

144、 exacerbated these issues,creating a perfect storm for industries reliant on natural gas.As the crisis progressed and prices skyrocketed further,numerous companies sought to reduce operations,shut down plants,or relocate production overseas.Industrial demand in Europe declined by 25 Bcm(-17.8%)from

145、2021 to 2023.Moving forward,some demand is likely to rebound from temporary curbs and fuel-switching,which Rystad Energy estimates to be around 5%or 6 Bcm,in 2024.However,as much as two-thirds of the decline in European industrial gas demand could be structural,resulting from permanent efficiency op

146、timisation,relocation of production beyond European borders,and the structural shift in European gas markets.To adapt,some manufacturers have also invested in alternative technologies.For instance,BASF built the worlds largest heat pump at its Ludwigshafen site in June 2022,switching away from direc

147、t use of natural gas.Many companies have relocated production or increased investments outside of Europe,for instance to the US,where energy costs are lower and policy incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)are attractive.For instance,Yara,a Norwegian fertiliser producer,announced in June 2

148、023 its strategic ambition to invest in blue ammonia capacity in the US,a move that was directly influenced by the IRA,while its European ammonia production in 2023 was curtailed by 19%.Source:Rystad Energy1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 2024231/Natural gas market fundame

149、ntals overviewAsiac.Gas demand in Asia saw continued growth in 2023,rising 32 Bcm(3.3%)from 2022 to reach 995 Bcm.At the continent-level,this was mainly driven by industrial,residential,and commercial growth outpacing a 3 Bcm(-1.1%)decline in power sector demand for gas in the year.At the country-le

150、vel,China and India were the main contributors to the regions growth.Chinas gas demand increased by 25 Bcm(6.9%)in 2023 y-o-y,while Indias gas consumption grew by 7 Bcm(12.7%).Chinas natural gas demand rebounded strongly in 2023,after being supressed by high global gas prices in 2022.9 Bcm of the in

151、crease was driven by a rebound in industrial activity,as the Chinese economy recovered,and fuel-switching from coal towards gas occurred as global prices declined throughout the year.A cold spell in January 2023,alongside a frigid winter at the end of the year,also drove growth in the residential an

152、d commercial sectors to meet heating requirements.Urbanisation and increased gasification in urban areas are also relevant drivers for growing residential and commercial demand,which is rising 6 Bcm in the year.The nations coal-to-gas switching policy has significantly improved air quality in urban

153、areas like Beijing by reducing particulate matter and other pollutants associated with coal combustion.In India,gas demand growth was driven by industry,growing by 16.3%or 6 Bcm in 2023.The fertiliser sector was particularly one of key gas consumers in India,as increasing domestic urea production le

154、d to a one-fifth reduction in imports of the material,boosting demand for natural gas as a feedstock.According to government data,compressed national gas(CNG)vehicles,including three-wheelers and cars,grew 53%to 180,000 in India from 2022 to 2023.As a result,demand for natural gas from transport inc

155、reased by 1 Bcm in the period,a trend slated to continue.With increased access to natural gas through the city gas distribution network,the residential and commercial sectors also saw a boost,growing by 1 Bcm in 2023 relative to 2022 levels.In 2024,Asian gas demand is expected to continue growing by

156、 43 Bcm(4.3%)from 2023.Industry will sustain its role as a strong growth driver,contributing 20 Bcm over the year.Residential and Figure 16:Asia gas demand,split by sectorBcm34.5%35.1%35.4%35.5%36.0%36.4%36.1%34.6%34.1%33.4%32.0%31.1%12.1%13.1%13.0%13.4%13.7%13.7%4.9%4.8%4.9%4.8%4.9%5.0%4.7%4.3%4.5%

157、4.6%4.7%4.6%2.9%3.3%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.8%4.3%4.7%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.8%8989069809649951,03802004006008001,0001,200201920202021202220232024FIndustrialPowerResidentialOthersCommercialHeatTransportationFuel GasSource:Rystad EnergyGlobal Gas Report 202424commercial sectors will also carry o

158、n positive trends,accounting for a combined 8 Bcm of additional gas demand.The power sector demand is projected to reverse course from its previous decline,and grow by 4 Bcm.In China,favourable policy and a strong economy are expected to sustain gas demand growth of 34 Bcm(8.6%)by the end of 2024,wi

159、th industry expected to account for 15 Bcm of this growth.India will also continue to be the second largest growth market,albeit at a slightly slower pace,growing 5 Bcm(7.1%)in 2024.In India,industrial and transport demand will largely continue to drive growth in gas demand,balancing a slower pace o

160、f residential and commercial natural gas demand growth.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewNorth Americad.North American gas demand grew slightly in 2023,increasing by 14 Bcm(1.2%)from 2022.This growth was attributable to a 24 Bcm(5.9%)rise in power sector demand,outpacing an 18 Bcm(-6.8%)comb

161、ined decline in the residential and commercial sectors,driven by a warmer-than-usual winter and lower heating demand.The US accounts for over 80%of gas demand in North America,and drove most of this growth,while Canada and Mexico experienced relatively stable gas demand across power,residential and

162、commercial sectors.The regions natural gas prices fell dramatically in 2023 as global gas markets returned to relative stability from 2022.The Henry Hub averaged about US$2.5 per MMBtu,returning to 2019 levels,resulting in gas becoming more competitive for power generation across the United States.T

163、his resulted in record gas consumption for power generation in 2023,even amidst falling overall power demand.Coal-to-gas switching was pronounced in the region,with coal consumption falling 5.4%from 2022.In November 2023,gas-fired power generation had a 50%cost advantage over coal in the PJM market

164、on the East Coast of the United States.Figure 17:North America gas demand,split by sectorBcm35.1%37.0%35.8%36.2%37.8%37.8%29.3%28.7%29.0%28.5%28.5%28.6%14.7%14.1%14.2%14.3%13.0%13.1%10.3%9.5%9.9%10.1%9.5%9.4%5.6%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.7%5.7%4.4%4.6%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.8%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.6%1,0831,0671,0791,121

165、1,1351,14302004006008001,0001,200201920202021202220232024FPowerIndustrialResidentialCommercialFuel GasOthersHeatTransportationSource:Rystad EnergyIn buildings,the most significant factor driving down gas demand was unusually warm weather during the 2023 heating season.In 2024,gas demand in North Ame

166、rica is expected to continue to rise by 8 Bcm(0.7%)y-o-y.Industrial demand is expected to continue growing by 3 Bcm(1.4%)in the year,with one key driver being European industrial Global Gas Report 202425demand shifting gears towards the US in light of lower gas prices and favourable incentives.Gas d

167、emand from the power sector is anticipated to continue its growth,albeit at a slower pace,increasing by 3 Bcm(0.7%)in the year.Residential and commercial demand is also expected to rebound slightly,growing a combined 2 Bcm(1.0%).1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewSouth Americae.South American

168、 gas demand grew 3 Bcm(2.3%)in 2023,driven by increased demand in key markets such as Argentina and Colombia,offsetting a 3 Bcm decline(-8.7%)in Brazil relative to 2022 levels.Argentina is reducing Bolivian gas imports in the north and replacing them with domestically produced gas.Lower demand in Br

169、azil was attributable to stronger hydropower generation,alongside slightly weaker industrial demand.In 2024,good storage levels in hydro reservoirs and a slowdown in industrial demand are expected to lead to a 2 Bcm(-1.5%)fall in overall gas demand on the continent.Figure 18:South America gas demand

170、,split by sectorBcm38.3%37.7%36.7%39.7%39.8%38.9%29.7%30.2%32.1%26.6%26.3%27.3%9.7%10.1%10.2%10.4%11.2%11.5%8.3%9.2%8.4%9.5%9.0%8.9%6.4%5.6%6.0%6.5%6.3%6.1%5.7%5.5%5.0%5.5%5.5%5.3%1.9%1.6%1.6%1.9%2.0%2.1%159147165154157155020406080100120140160180200201920202021202220232024FIndustrialPowerOthersResid

171、entialTransportationFuel GasCommercialHeatAfricaf.As Africas power and overall energy needs have experienced growth,its gas needs have also been growing,rising by 5 Bcm(3.2%)in 2023 y-o-y.This increase has been driven by 2 Bcm(6.8%)growth in the Industrial sector and 1 Bcm growth each in the residen

172、tial(4.9%)sector and power sector(0.7%).At a country-level,this was largely driven by developments in Egypt,Algeria and Nigeria.Gas demand growth in Egypt has been driven by the power sector,resulting in 2 Bcm(4.2%)of growth in 2023.This growth has occurred in the face of power cuts and no LNG expor

173、ts during the summer months,due to gas shortages.Egypt has also seen 1 Bcm(5.5%)of industrial gas demand growth,owing to an expansion of the industrial sector.The Minister of Trade and Industry cited a growth rate of 3.8%in fiscal year 2022/2023 for the industrial sector in Egypt,the same period for

174、 which the government invested 1.7 billion USD into the manufacturing sector.This rapid growth in gas demand turned Egypt from being a net exporter to a net importer in 2023.Algeria Figure 19:Africa gas demand,split by sectorBcm50.4%50.4%49.0%48.4%47.2%48.6%20.0%20.4%20.8%21.6%22.2%19.3%16.7%15.5%15

175、.9%16.0%16.6%17.4%6.4%6.6%7.2%7.1%7.2%7.6%4.2%4.8%4.7%4.7%4.3%4.1%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.0%2.2%2.7%1701581671641701700255075100125150175200201920202021202220232024FOthersIndustrialResidentialFuel GasCommercialHeatSource:Rystad EnergyGlobal Gas Report 202426saw 1 Bcm of growth in gas demand for power(4.0%)and

176、 1 Bcm in Industry(10.8%),on the back of GDP growth of 4.2%in 2023 relative to 2022 levels.Nigeria also saw 1 Bcm of y-o-y growth in 2023,driven by growth in the industrial and heating sectors.African gas demand is expected to remain flat in 2024.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewIII.Natural

177、 gas market supplyFigure 20:Global gas production,split by regionBcm28.7%29.4%28.6%30.3%31.4%31.0%15.9%16.8%16.6%17.0%17.3%17.5%16.6%16.8%17.0%17.2%17.1%17.1%17.7%16.5%17.8%15.5%14.7%15.1%6.4%6.1%5.6%5.8%5.3%5.2%6.3%6.0%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.2%4.3%4.0%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%4.2%4.4%4.2%4.1%4.0%3.9%3,9613,8394,0334

178、,0324,0514,14605001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500201920202021202220232024FNorth AmericaMiddle EastAsiaRussiaEuropeAfricaSouth AmericaAustraliaSource:Rystad EnergyGlobal gas production rose by 19 Bcm(0.5%)in 2023 y-o-y,largely attributable to increases in North America of 52 Bcm(4.3%),the Mi

179、ddle East of 16 Bcm(1.9%)and Asia of 3 Bcm(0.8%),which offset a supply decline in Europe of 18 Bcm(-7.8%).The gas production growth is expected to continue in 2024,with supply increasing by 96 Bcm(2.4%),led by the Middle East at 26 Bcm(3.7%),Asia at 17 Bcm(2.4%)and North America at 12 Bcm(1.0%).Mode

180、st growth is also expected from South America with an additional 4 Bcm(2.6%)of production,alongside Europe with 2 Bcm(0.9%),Australia with 1 Bcm(0.7%)and Africa with 1 Bcm(0.5%).On the other side of modest production growth,several mature fields are coming of age,adding to the urgent need to revisit

181、 future demand and supply balances to ensure that investment on the supply side are sufficient to deliver the volumes that may be needed in the 5-10 year timeframe,given that conventional gas fields can take anywhere from 5-8 years to develop,depending on asset-specific parameters such as size,locat

182、ion,fiscal regulatory environment.North American production boomed in 2023 with a growth of 52 Bcm(4.3%),of which the US accounted for 44 Bcm.This was partially due to associated gas production from its oil fields,as high oil prices throughout the year encouraged increased oil output4.Shale activity

183、 in the strategic Haynesville and Eagle Ford plays also contributed,with 14 Bcm and 6 Bcm of production growth,respectively.In the Global Gas Report 202427Middle East,gas production rose by 16 Bcm(2.4%),thanks to key assets such as South Pars in Iran,Khazzan-Makarem and Yibal-Khuff in Oman,and Karis

184、h in Israel,as these countries seek to increase their self-sufficiency and export potential.African gas production added 4 Bcm,driven by strong growth in Algeria and Mozambique,outpacing mature field declines in Egypt and Nigeria,showing different trajectories in a diverse region.Asias 3 Bcm(0.4%)of

185、 growth was bifurcated.China boosted its gas output by 10 Bcm,achieving strategic objectives aimed at enhancing energy security as outlined in the countrys latest five-year plan,ahead of schedule.This was contrasted with lower production from mature basins in Southeast Asia,and a mix of issues in Ce

186、ntral Asia such as mature field decline in Uzbekistan,lacking infrastructure in Kazakhstan,and technical issues in Turkmenistan.South American gas production fell by 2 Bcm(-1.3%)in 2023 as output dropped in Argentina and Bolivia.Australia recorded a larger decline of 5 Bcm(-3.1%)due to natural decli

187、ne at legacy fields,especially in the Bass Strait.European output slumped by 18 Bcm(-7.6%)as a result of extended maintenance at the Troll field and Kollsnes gas processing 4This is exemplified by an additional 19 Bcm from the oil-prone Permian basin during the year.plant in Norway,alongside further

188、 mature field declines in the Netherlands and the UK.Finally,Russia saw the largest production slide with 32 Bcm(-5.0%),attributable to shut-in production due to a lack of international monetisation routes.In general,without significant growth in new resource development,declines in mature basins su

189、ch as in Southeast Asia(notably Malaysia and Indonesia),Africa(notably Egypt and Nigeria),and the North Sea(notably Netherlands and the UK)are contributing to the uncertainty of gas supply for domestic consumption,pipeline exports and LNG feedgas.This is a key trend to monitor,contributing to uncert

190、ainty in global gas markets.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202428Figure 21:2023 Global gas production year-on-year change Bcm521643-2-5-18-32-40-30-20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60North AmericaMiddle EastAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustraliaEuropeRussiaSource:Rystad EnergyIV.Natural

191、 gas market prices and tradeAsias demand,production and import needs continued to rise in 2023,a trend that is expected to continue through 2024,as countries such as China increasingly rely on gas imports.Implied import needs in Asia climbed by 29 Bcm(10.5%)in 2023,with growth expected at a similar

192、pace in 2024.In contrast,European demand fell due to lower seasonal needs,and reduced demand from the power and industrial sectors.This coincided with higher renewable and nuclear power generation and lower gas output due to maintenance and declining mature fields.Implied import needs in Europe fell

193、 by 14 Bcm(-5.2%)in 2023,and are expected to remain flat in 2024.North Americas export potential jumped by a notable 37 Bcm,as shale production boomed in the Permian,Haynesville and Eagle Ford plays,outpacing consumption.This trend is expected to soften in 2024,with some reversal of import potential

194、 growth.South America will continue to see a balanced market into 2024,as demand and supply match at a continent level.When aggregating pipeline and LNG flows,the largest five net exporters of gas in 2023 were Russia,Qatar,the US,Norway,and Australia.Russia led with a net export of 139 Bcm,followed

195、by Qatar at 128 Bcm.The US exported 127 Bcm,Norway came fourth with 120 Bcm,and Australia rounded out the top five net exporters with 110 Bcm.On the import side,China was the largest net importer with a deficit of 160 Bcm.Japan follows with 91 Bcm,Germany with 77 Bcm,Mexico with 64 Bcm,and South Kor

196、ea with 61 Bcm.Global LNG trade rose to 537 Bcm in 2023,as the growing importance of LNG continues amid energy security and supply uncertainty concerns across the globe.The US became the worlds largest net exporter of LNG in 2023,overtaking both Australia and Qatar to reach 117 Bcm of exports.The US

197、 volumes primarily flow to Europe,while Australia and Qatar export to Asia more than to Europe,owing to legacy agreements and geographical advantages.Algeria also increased its LNG exports to overtake Indonesia,Oman,and Nigeria,with 18 Bcm of exports last year.Australia-to-Japan remained the worlds

198、most popular LNG trade route in 2023,accounting for 39 Bcm of flows in the year.However,this was a drop from the previous years high of 43 Bcm.In terms of imports,China overtook Japan as the globes largest LNG importer,accounting for 94 Bcm of net exports in 2023.India and Chinese Taipei also grew i

199、n importer ranking in the year,overtaking Spain.Net pipeline trade flows fell 6.8%to 475 Bcm in 2023,owing mainly to lower exports from Russia.This was the most significant change to pipeline exports through the year.Russia still remained the second-largest pipeline exporter globally,with most volum

200、es going to China(26 Bcm),Turkey(21 Bcm)and Belarus(18 Bcm).Irans exports climbed 19%to overtake Qatar,while the ranking of the other top 10 exporters remained the-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800BcmEuropeAsiaAustraliaAfricaRussiaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth AmericaIMPORTERIMPORTER

201、EXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTEREXPORTERBalancedImplied import needsProductionDemandImplied export potential20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024F20192024FFigure 22:Gas demand,production,and import or export volumesFigure 22 illustrates the disparity in gas production and de

202、mand across various regions.Some regions have a surplus of gas production over their local demand,categorising them as exporting regions,while others have a deficit,classifying them as importing regions.In the case of exporting regions,the volume they can export without tapping into their stored gas

203、 reserves is termed the“implied export potential”.Conversely,for importing regions,the quantity they need to import without resorting to their stored gas reserves is denoted as the“implied import needs”.Source:Rystad Energy1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202429Source:Ryst

204、ad EnergyTable 3:Top 10 gas exporters and importers in 2023Note:Top 10 Exporters(Bcm)Top 10 Importers(Bcm)Exports and imports in the Table are net,subtracting imports from exports for any given exporter and vice versa.Russia 139 China 160Qatar 128 Japan 91United States 127 Germany 77Norway 120 Mexic

205、o 64Australia 110 South Korea 61Canada 53 Italy 59Algeria 52 Turkey 49Turkmenistan 41 France 41same.In terms of imports,France dropped its pipeline imports to 13 Bcm in 2023 from 25 Bcm in 2022,reducing its dependence on Russia while its nuclear power generation rose.The UKs pipeline imports rose to

206、 18 Bcm from 12 Bcm on the back of higher Norwegian supply.Turkmenistan-to-China was the most common pipeline trade route in 2023,accounting for 30 Bcm.The reduced pipeline export volumes from 2022 were sustained in 2023,with similar overall volumes as 2022.The LNG share of net export volumes rose t

207、o 53%,largely attributable to the Russia-Europe dynamic,as Europe turned to LNG to replace its Russian pipeline gas imports.In 2024,total global export volumes are expected to regain ground,growing by 48 Bcm(4.7%),driven by demand growth in regions including Asia.While both segments are expected to

208、grow,the share of piped exports is slated to increase slightly faster than LNG,as suppliers such as Norway and Algeria continue to boost pipeline exports,and Russia increases its eastward flows.Nevertheless,LNGs share is still expected to remain above 50%of export modality,showing a sustained shift

209、in gas markets since 2022.As the world adjusts to a new reality of continuing wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas,global gas markets have found themselves remaining at a fragile equilibrium in 2024,with global gas prices cooling in 2023 from their historic peaks and volatili

210、ty of the preceding year,but with remaining supply constraints maintaining the suspense.Europes Title Transfer Facility(TTF)price fell steadily from about US$22 per million British thermal units(MMBtu)in January 2023 to trade in the US$10-12 per MMBtu range from May until 1/Natural gas market fundam

211、entals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202430Figure 23:Global LNG trade flows for 2023 for top net importers and exportersBcmUnited States:117.3China:94.3Japan:91.3South Korea:61.1France:31.5India:28.7Chinese Taipei:28.3Spain:24.8Netherlands:22.9United Kingdom:19.6Others:135.8Australia:111.3Qatar:108.7Rus

212、sia:42.1Malaysia:33.0Algeria:17.8Nigeria:17.8Indonesia:15.2Oman:14.9Others:60.2OthersOthersFigure 24:Global pipeline trade flows for 2023 for top net importers and exportersNorway:114.2Germany:70.4Italy:43.7United Kingdom:18.4Others:193.7Russia:97.0China:65.8Turkey:36.2Belarus:18.0Canada:53.4Turkmen

213、istan:41.4Algeria:34.6Azerbaijan:22.8Qatar:19.5UAE:18.0Iran:12.0Malaysia/Thailand JDA:10.4Thailand:10.6Others:132.9Mexico:63.4BcmOthersOthersSource:Rystad Energymid-August.However,fears about potential strikes at Australian liquefaction facilities drove prices up briefly in October 2023,and the onse

214、t of the Israel-Hamas war that resulted in the shut-in of the Tamar gas field added to the price increase in the last quarter of 2023.Subsequently,the TTF peaked at US$17 per MMBtu in October 2023,up 37%from mid-August,before prices cooled again through the last quarter of 2023 as European storage l

215、evels hit record highs.The start of 2024 saw further downward price pressure,despite a January cold spell in some areas of the world,including parts of China and the US,alongside escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.At the end of February 2024,the TTF prices fell to US$7 per MMBtu bef

216、ore rebounding slightly.This rebound was attributable to colder-than-expected weather in Asia,an outage at Freeport LNG in the US,and reduced production levels in Norway.Subsequently,issues such as 1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewFigure 25:Global net gas export volumes,split by flow typeBc

217、m56%54%54%49%47%48%44%46%46%51%53%52%0100200300400500600700800201920202021202220232024FPipelineLNGSource:Rystad EnergyNote:Global gas export volumes are calculated on a country-by-country basis,aggregated at a global level.They are also net,subtracting imports from exports at a country-level.Figure

218、26:International natural gas pricesUSD(real)per MMBtu020406080100120Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Henry HubLNG Nor

219、theast AsiaTTFOnset of Russia-Ukraine war heightens concerns over Russian pipeline supplyReports of sabotage on the Nord Stream pipelines and threats to energy infrastructure as Europe roiled under heatwavesOnset of Israel-Hamas war results in price pressure with shut-in of Tamar gas fieldInitial fe

220、ars about strikes at Australian liquefaction facilitiesForward curvesShortage of spot cargoes amidst extreme cold causes price spikeSource:Rystad Energy;Argus(LNG Northeast Asia)Note:Forward curves outline Futures contract pricing for each benchmark as of July 2024 and are not a forecast.Global Gas

221、Report 202431heatwaves across parts of Asia and the US,supply interruptions in Norway,Australia and the US,and further heightened Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran drove TTF prices up to US$10 per MMBtu.As of the start of July 2024,the TTF was still trading in that region,

222、as players bridge demand and supply through summer.The Northeast Asia spot price for LNG delivered ex-ship to ports in Japan,Soth Korea,Taiwan,and China has trended closely with the TTF.Demand competition between Europe and Asia remains a major market shaping force,given Europes current reliance on

223、LNG to meet 40%of its gas demand.In contrast,the Henry Hub(HH)benchmark is characterised by its location in Louisiana in the US,with sufficient local gas production to supply the domestic market.As a result,the HH trades in a lower and tighter price range the benchmark started 2023 trending downward

224、 from highs of US$4 per MMBtu,falling steadily to about US$2 per MMBtu by February.It traded in the US$2-3 per MMBtu range until October 2023,when volatility from the Israel-Hamas war created a brief upward pressure on prices.2024 saw the HH open at about US$3 per MMBtu,trending lower after winter t

225、o trade in the US$1.5-2 per MMBtu band until May and June,when prices hit US$3 per MMBtu on the back of production cuts,higher power demand and hot weather,before ticking downwards to about US$2.5 per MMBtu as of July 2024.In terms of price volatility,2024 has been calm up to July,characterised by l

226、ess turbulent gas markets.On average,volatility in the year was less than half of that observed in 2023,and one-fifth of that in 2022.However,both prices and price volatility are still elevated relative to the pre-pandemic era,primarily due to the still very tightly supplied market.Gas price sensiti

227、vity remains high,as seen from price and volatility response to the Australia supply fears and the Middle East conflict.Any notable shift in demand or supply has the potential to disrupt the fragile balance in place.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202432Figure 27:Internat

228、ional natural gas price volatilityon a monthly basis(USD(real)per MMBtu)02468101214Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Henry HubLNG

229、Northeast AsiaTTFOnset of Russia-Ukraine war heightens concerns over Russian pipeline supplyReports of sabotage on the Nord Stream pipelines and threats to energy infrastructure as Europe roiled under heatwavesOnset of Israel-Hamas war results in price pressure with shut-in of Tamar gas fieldInitial

230、 fears about strikes at Australian liquefaction facilitiesShortage of spot cargoes amidst extreme cold causes price spikeAverage volatility levels in 1H 2024 were still 1.7x higher than in 2019-Source:Rystad Energy;Argus(LNG Northeast Asia)Standard deviation of daily prices,calculated on a monthly b

231、asis(USD(real)per MMBtu)Henry HubLNG Northeast AsiaTTF1/Natural gas market fundamentals overview02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600201920202021202220232024FAsiaEuropeSouth AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaBcmRegional 2022-2024F CAGR*6.3%14.4%12.1%0.0%4.6%Source:Rystad EnergyFigure 28:Global LNG re

232、ceiving capacity,split by regionGlobal Gas Report 202433Source:Share of natural gas in total energy mix.Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.(2023.December 18).https:/pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1987803This section builds on analysis conducted in IGUs 2024 World LNG report,which can

233、 be accessed at the following link:https:/www.igu.org/resources/2024-world-lng-report/Global regasification capacity has seen rapid expansion since 2022.The rate of growth in global LNG receiving capacity between 2022 to 2024F is expected to be 7.7%,nearly double the 2019-2021 CAGR of 4.8%.This chan

234、ge was seen in both the largest regional importers,Asia with a 2022-2024F CAGR of 6.3%and Europe with 14.4%,accounting for over 80%of global regasification capacity.In Asia,this growth was largely attributable to China and India,with imports meeting increasing natural gas demand.In China,regasificat

235、ion plants have been built to support the promotion of natural gas as part of the nations efforts to shift to cleaner energy sources and reduce its reliance on coal.Capacity additions in India are helping the country achieve its 2030 target of a 15%increase in the share of natural gas in its energy

236、mix,up from 6.7%today5.In Europe,regasification capacity growth was primarily attributable to a pivot from Russian pipeline gas because of the Russia-Ukraine war in 20226.Prior to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022,Europe was heavily reliant on Russian pipeline gas,accounting for over 40%of

237、 gas imports to the continent.As the war unfolded,Europe pivoted rapidly towards greater reliance on LNG imports.The scale and pace of the regasification facility buildout that Europe has carried out to meet this goal has been unprecedented,including rapid deployment of onshore facilities and Floati

238、ng Storage Regasification Units(FSRUs)even in nations without prior LNG terminals,such as Germany.European regasification capacity stood at 210 Bcm in 2021,following a decade of slower growth.In 2023,its regasification capacity reached 245 Bcm,showing an 8.0%CAGR over the two years,a sharp departure

239、 from the 2.3%CAGR observed from 2011-2020.Only counting projects that have been sanctioned,Europes regasification capacity in 2024 is slated to reach 283 Bcm,a further 15.3%growth over 2023.This has been driven across Europe,with the largest four additions coming from Germany,V.Global regasificatio

240、n capacity growth from 202256Note:Africa not shown in CAGR calculation as capacity increased from 0 to 3 Bcm in 2024F2019-2021 CAGR:4.8%2022-2024F CAGR:7.7%*the Netherlands,Spain and Italy.Germany is expected to have added 25 Bcm of regasification capacity between 2022 and 2024,deploying its first t

241、hree regasification terminals.The Netherlands is expected to have added 12 Bcm over the same period,doubling its capacity.In addition to providing essential supply,a surplus in regasification capacity provides an essential safety reserve to satisfy peak demand,and to provide flexibility to the energ

242、y system on gas supply intake and routing optionality.This is essential to maintain energy security in a highly uncertain demand environment,while providing diversification of supply opportunities.At the height of the energy crisis,when infrastructure was limited,some facilities saw utilisation rate

243、s above 100%,causing major stress to the energy system.For example,Frances average regasification utilisation rate reached a high of 108%in 2022 as LNG imports were heavily relied on to replace Russian pipeline gas.Planning for spare LNG receiving capacity is a positive energy security policy measur

244、e,helping to tap into the value of LNG as a flexible and reliable resource for balancing the energy systems in case of unexpected spikes in demand or supply.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202434Figure 29:Global energy-related GHG emissions,split by energy sourceGigatonne

245、s of CO2Equivalent 38%38%40%39%39%39%32%30%30%31%31%31%19%20%19%19%19%19%11%12%11%11%11%11%39374041434305101520253035404550201920202021202220232024FCoalOilNatural GasOthersNon-energy sectors such as Land Use,Land-Use Change and Forestry(LULUCF)and emissions from sectors where fossil fuel products ar

246、e used as a feedstock are not included.Oil refers to crude oil,natural gas liquids,refinery gains and other liquids.Source:Rystad EnergyIn 2023,energy-related emissions reached another peak,adding another 1.6(3.9%)gigatonnes of CO2 equivalents(Gt CO2 eq.)to 42.7 Gt CO2 eq.from 2022,continuing their

247、upward trajectory from pandemic-era lows as seen in Figure 29.Total emissions from coal also grew from 2022 to a record 16.7 Gt CO2 eq.,accounting for almost 40%of energy-related emissions in 2023.The rate of energy-related emissions growth is expected to slow to 1.0%in 2024,growing by 0.4 Gt CO2 eq

248、.,maintaining a similar sectoral split.Emissions from gas are expected to remain level,despite growing demand and production,due to an ongoing reduction in gas value chain emissions intensity.Coal remained the largest and growing source of emissions in the power sector in 2023,accounting for 71%of t

249、he total,evident in Figure 30.Gas-fired power plants have a 50%lower emissions footprint,as seen in Figure 32.Even with advanced ultra-supercritical technologies,the emissions factor of the most efficient coal power generation technologies is still higher than that of the least efficient gas power g

250、eneration,thus making the switch from coal to gas a significant contributor to reducing the emissions from the energy sector.The level of gas-to-coal switching is commonly evaluated using coal switching price bands,as illustrated in Figure 33 and Figure 34.Coal 42%vs Gas 48%(grey VI.Tracking emissio

251、nsNote:shaded area)signifies the lower range of the coal-to-gas switching band between high-efficiency coal(42%)and low-efficiency gas(48%).When gas prices(yellow line)cross the grey area,it is cheaper to turn on the most efficient coal-fired power plants at the expense of the least efficient gas-fi

252、red ones,similarly,if the line is above all the bands,even the most efficient gas-fired power plants are more expensive than the least efficient coal-fired ones.2023 saw European gas prices fall to the lower end of the coal switching price bands,making gas power generation competitive with coal gene

253、ration.Correspondingly,coal power generation in Western Europe saw a rise of 8%in 2022 but subsequently fell 28%in 2023 as the cost of gas became competitive with coal power generation.In Asia,gas prices have been consistently higher than coal switching price bands since 2021,with gas prices becomin

254、g more competitive against coal in the first half of 2023.Asian countries,led by China and India,have experienced a surge in power demand to meet their robust economic growth demand over the last decade,with the increased demand primarily met through coal-fired power generation.Looking ahead,signifi

255、cant volume of planned addition of coal power generation is expected to be built in China,India,and Indonesia.The utilisation rates of these new Asian coal power plants will be dictated by electricity demand growth,renewables capacity Figure 30:Global power emissions in 2023,split by energy sourceFi

256、gure 31:Global power generation in 2023,split by energy source%proportion of power emissions71%21%3%5%CoalNatural GasOilOthers%proportion of power generation34%22%9%2%33%CoalGasNuclearOilRenewablesSource:Rystad EnergyOil refers to crude oil,natural gas liquids,refinery gains and other liquids.Note:F

257、igure 32:Emissions factor of coal vs gas combustion in power generation,split by technologyg CO2eq./kWh0200400600800100012001400SubcriticalSupercriticalUltra-supercriticalOCGTCCGT12CoalNatural GasSource:Rystad Energy1 OCTG:Open Cycle Gas Turbine 2 CCGT:Closed Cycle Gas TurbineNotes:1/Natural gas mar

258、ket fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202435growth and the age and health of existing coal infrastructure in each country.In China,new coal power plant projects are developing at a rapid pace.Since China began its spree of coal power plants in 2022,152 GW has been permitted while a further 169

259、GW has been announced.Large-scale additions of coal-fired power plants could pose a risk to meeting Chinas decarbonisation targets such as“peak emissions by 2030”.In India,coal has become even more dominant in the power sector,increasing rapidly since 2019 according to the Indian Power Ministry,and

260、2024 is expected to see the highest annual increase in coal-fired power capacity.This pace is not expected to slow as Indias Ministry of Power is planning to minimally add 54 GW of coal-fired power generation capacity by March 2032 in addition to the 26 GW already under construction.If the governmen

261、ts target is met,coal capacity is set to rise by 34%from 232 GW in Figure 33:European gas prices vs coal-switching price in the NetherlandsUSD per million British thermal units(MMBtu)-20 40 60 80 100 120Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Coal 34

262、%vs Gas 56%Coal 36%vs Gas 54%Coal 38%vs Gas 52%Coal 40%vs Gas 50%Coal 42%vs Gas 48%TTF Day AheadDec-23Figure 34:Asian LNG prices vs coal-switching priceUSD per million British thermal units(MMBtu)0102030405060Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23C

263、oal 34%vs Gas 56%Coal 36%vs Gas 54%Coal 38%vs Gas 52%Coal 40%vs Gas 50%Coal 42%vs Gas 48%Asia LNG spot priceDec-23Source:Rystad Energy1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202436Figure 35:Power generation in Asia,split by selected country and energy sourceTWh63%61%60%59%58%54%3

264、%3%3%3%4%4%29%31%32%33%34%38%7,6948,0578,6549,1089,70210,35502,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FOilNuclearRenewablesGasCoalChinaIndiaIndonesia70%68%70%71%73%71%4%4%3%2%2%2%23%25%24%24%23%24%1,7021,6111,7541,8771,9952,11305001,0001,5002,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024FOilNuclear

265、RenewablesGasCoal60%62%62%62%62%62%21%18%19%20%19%18%17%19%19%18%18%19%28728630332334536505010015020025030035040020192020202120222023 2024FOilNuclearRenewablesGasCoal%share labelled for top 3 sourcesSource:Rystad Energy;2023 to 312 GW by 2032.In Southeast Asia,Indonesias coal power generation has be

266、en steadily increasing and is expected to continue as the country seeks to increase its coal power capacity with 14.5 GW under construction and further announced projects amounting to 4.75 GW.Though planned coal addition in Indonesia is smaller than China and India,the planned 19.25 GW addition is g

267、reater than Indonesias total 2023 renewable capacity(13.2 GW)and accounts for 22%of 2023s total power capacity.This has resulted in much uncertainty surrounding Asias future gas demand and the overall energy landscape,as the switch back to coal deviates away from sustainability and could potentially

268、 set emerging economies in Asia back in terms of industrialisation and risk significant delays in local decarbonisation efforts and global net-zero targets.One way to reverse this troubling trend of growing carbon footprint from new and existing coal plants would be to convert them to burn natural g

269、as instead.Looking at emissions factors in Figure 32,we see that this switch would reduce emissions from power generation substantially.Siemens Energy estimates that capital expenditure for conversions of coal plants to gas plants would save 30%in capital expenditure relative to a new plant.Accordin

270、g to power generator TransAlta,in Canada,the payback period for such a conversion is one year,as efficiency gains and carbon tax savings result in cost savings.Gas power plants have further decarbonisation potential,with the possibility of fitting carbon capture units,or co-firing with low-CO2 gases

271、.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewEfforts to continuously enhance identification,measurement,verification,and reporting methane emissions are actively being advanced by the industry and policy makers,presenting both challenges and opportunities.Reliable measurement,reporting,and verificatio

272、n(MRV)are essential for reducing emissions,yet the industry faces hurdles such as reliance on outdated estimation methods.Increasing transparency through advanced measurement technologies,transparent recordkeeping,and independent audits can significantly improve accuracy and accountability.A call to

273、 action is to be made natural gas players must prioritize enhancing MRV systems to ensure compliance,build public trust,and maintain their license to operate.Immediate action in this area is crucial for effective methane mitigation and achieving global climate goals.Many companies have set targets t

274、o restrict emissions or emission intensity,and voluntary industry-led efforts like the Oil and Gas Climate Initiatives goal of near-zero methane emissions by 2030 have driven progress.Member companies,representing major global producers,have significantly reduced their upstream methane intensity,ach

275、ieving a 50%decrease from 2017 to 2022,with an aggregate intensity of 0.15%,already surpassing their 2025 target of well below 0.20%.Natural gas offers enormous benefits in the energy transition as a companion fuel to renewables,with significantly lower emissions relative to coal and oil,high effici

276、ency and flexibility to be delivered in gaseous or liquid form to any point of use around the world,all while keeping the air,land,and water clean.It is also important to highlight that a continued momentum and strengthening of efforts toward elimination of methane emissions along the gas supply cha

277、in is essential to maximise value,and the IGU is calling for the gas industry to adopt a zero-methane emissions culture.It is also critical to continue accelerating the efforts of scaling decarbonisation technologies,including low and zero-carbon gases and carbon capture utilisation and storage.Natu

278、ral gas market value chain emissionsGlobal Gas Report 2024371/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202438VII.Natural gas market policy impact on selected regionsOverall,current policies across major regions are rapidly reshaping global natural gas flows and market dynamics globa

279、lly.Recent examples of policy changes impacting natural gas and its market in the European Union,the United States,China,and India are explored below.Driven by the intent to phase out imports of Russian gas,the EU put in place measures targeting the reduction in natural gas use,including a voluntary

280、 15%demand reduction target,in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.The EUs 14th round of sanctions8 against Russia includes a ban on transshipment of Russian LNG to third countries via the EU,a ban on future investments in LNG projects in Russia,and a ban on the use of 27 LNG vessels in Russias shado

281、w fleet.EU Member states have also implemented individual measures,such as public awareness campaigns,efficiency and conservation incentives,and fuel switching,where feasible.Complementing the demand-side actions,the EU set a target of achieving gas storage levels of at least 90%by October 31st each

282、 year to support security of supply in a tight market environment.In parallel,the EU is aiming to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55%by 2030 relative to 1990 through its Fit for 55 package.To facilitate this,the European Council adopted the hydrogen and decarbonised gas market package i

283、n May 20248,aiming to shift 66%of current natural gas consumption to renewable and low-CO2 gases by 2050,up from 5%today.This also includes a 40 GW 2030 renewable hydrogen capacity and 10 million tonnes renewable hydrogen production goal.The package also prohibited long-term natural gas contracts fr

284、om being signed9.More recently,the European Commission recommended reducing the EUs net greenhouse gas emissions by 90%by 2040 relative to 1990,as an intermediate step between the 55%by 2030 target and the goal of climate neutrality by 2050.The EUs new methane regulation10,gradually entering into fo

285、rce in 2025 through to 2027,mandates strict monitoring and reporting of methane emissions from fossil fuel industries,requiring operators to stop routine flaring.It also applies these requirements to fossil fuel imports from 2027 and will gradually extend it to exporters.In addition,the regulation w

286、ill impose allowable methane intensity limits on fossil fuel imports by 2030,with potential financial penalties for non-compliance,creating a concern over security of supply.In the US,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)also imposes a methane emissions charge on oil and gas producers starting with 2024

287、emissions11.This charge aims to provide a financial incentive for operators to minimise methane leaks across their production systems.The charge applies an annual fee starting at US$900 per metric tonne of excess methane emissions above facility-specific thresholds in 2025,increasing to US$1,200 per

288、 tonne in 2026,and$1,500 per ton in 2027 and beyond.While the methane charge could impact production costs and supply,it also presents an opportunity for producers to continue to eliminate emissions and monetise more gas.The IRA also enhances tax credits for carbon capture utilisation and storage(CC

289、US),which is an essential technology for meeting global emissions reduction targets and addressing climate change.In July 2024,the US ended a blanket pause12 issued earlier this year on approving of new LNG export terminals,saying that the pause would adversely affect the economy and violate the Nat

290、ural Gas Act13.This was a positive sign for de-politicisation of the market functioning,after the Biden Source:EU adopts 14th package of sanctions against Russia for its continued illegal war against Ukraine,strengthening enforcement and anti-circumvention measures.European Commission.(2024.June 24)

291、.https:/ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_3423Source:Fit for 55:Council signs off on gas and hydrogen market package.Council of the European Union.(2024.May 21).https:/www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/05/21/fit-for-55-council-signs-off-on-gas-and-hydrogen-market

292、-package/This outlines 2049 as the deadline to ban long-term contracts for unabated fossil gas.Short-term contracts less than a year in duration and gas fitted with carbon capture and storage technology is exempt from this ban.Source:New EU methane regulation to reduce harmful emissions from fossil

293、fuels in Europe and abroad.European Commission.(2024.May 27).https:/energy.ec.europa.eu/news/new-eu-methane-regulation-reduce-harmful-emissions-fossil-fuels-europe-and-abroad-2024-05-27_enSource:Waste emissions charge.United States Environmental Protection Agency.(2024.April 12).https:/www.epa.gov/i

294、nflation-reduction-act/waste-emissions-chargeSource:Federal judge stays Biden administrations freeze on LNG export permits.Houston Public Media.(2024.July 2).https:/www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/energy-environment/2024/07/02/492563/federal-judge-stays-biden-administrations-freeze-on-lng-e

295、xport-permits/The Natural Gas Act requires any person to obtain an authorisation from the US Department of Energy to import or export gas,taking public interests into consideration when granting licenses.78910111213administrations announcement in January 2024 of this pause on approving new export te

296、rminals and unapproved expansions seeking to export to non-free trade agreement(non-FTA)countries,including most major LNG import markets like Europe and Asia.The US Department of Energy planned to use the halt in approvals to assess the economic and environmental effects of proposed LNG export term

297、inals.The pause impacted about one-quarter of all US LNG export capacity under development and one-tenth globally(70 MPTA),though it did not affect existing terminals,those already under construction,or projects exporting to FTA countries.The Department of Energy continues to evaluate its next steps

298、,which could decide the future of natural gas exports from the US.On the other side of the spectrum,China has been actively promoting natural gas as part of its efforts to shift to cleaner energy sources and reduce its reliance on coal.China views gas as a clean and sustainable fuel,which is necessa

299、ry to partner with renewables and ensure stability for its rapidly scaling power system,especially with heavy renewables buildout over 40%of global operational renewables capacity is in China.The importance of gas in the nation is evident from it surpassing its 230 Bcm production goal in 2023,two ye

300、ars ahead of schedule.This target was part of its 14th five-year-plan,alongside a national storage capacity target of 55-60 Bcm,which is on-track to reach 70 Bcm by 2025.A draft Chinese energy law by the National Peoples Congress seeks to take measures to strengthen exploration of oil and gas resour

301、ces,improve production and storage,and improve domestic supply capability.The Chinese government has streamlined approvals for gas-fired power plants to improve their competitiveness and accelerate deployment.India also has an ambitious target to increase the share of natural gas in its primary ener

302、gy mix from the current 6.7%to 15%by 203014,surmounting challenges of affordability and availability.To address these issues,India has implemented several policy measures.In March 2023,a new domestic gas pricing formula was introduced,linking prices partially to crude oil with a ceiling of US$6.50 p

303、er MMBtu,aiming to make gas more affordable for consumers,especially in the city gas and fertilizer sectors.This is expected to lower prices by US$1-2 per MMBtu.However,such caps can introduce the pitfall of distorting long-term economics for suppliers and producers,resulting in a mismatch of invest

304、ment,and ultimately slow down progress for gas access.In April 2023,India also revised its gas transmission tariff structure,implementing a unified system to replace the zonal structure,reducing transmission costs for inland industries and city gas distributors.These changes are likely to boost dome

305、stic consumption and encourage fuel switching from coal and oil to natural gas-a positive possibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality.1/Natural gas market fundamentals overviewGlobal Gas Report 202439Source:Share of natural gas in total energy mix.Ministry of Petroleu

306、m and Natural Gas.(2023.December 18).https:/pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1987803142/Evolution of low-CO2 and decarbonised gas technologiesGlobal Gas Report 202440Highlight2/Evolution of low-CO2 and decarbonised gas technologies Without significant acceleration in the building of proje

307、cts,the majority of 2030 targets of 1.5-degree decarbonisation scenarios will likely not be met across the technologies analysed.On the contrary,2-degree decarbonisation targets appear to be within reach.Nonetheless,the project capacities reported are uncertain,due to a significant share of pre-FID

308、volumes which could push completion timelines into the next decade.Concerted action by governments and industry,with prudent and efficient policy support and predictability are needed to mitigate these risks,and correct course to reach carbon neutrality targets.In the EU,current biomethane productio

309、n levels are still far Global Gas Report 202441Figure 36:Global low-CO2 and decarbonised gas technology capacity and production,known vs aspiredSource:Rystad Energy;IEA;EBAbelow the targets set,which would require a nine-to tenfold increase.For low-CO2 hydrogen,while 2030 global capacity is expected

310、 to be formed by equal amounts of blue and green hydrogen showcasing the rapid growth potential of green hydrogen capacity nearly 90%of the 2030 capacity involves pre-FID projects,posing significant uncertainty.For CCUS,global carbon capture capacity is projected to grow by 42%annually until 2030,bu

311、t the majority is made up of pre-FID projects,thus this growth is dependent on overcoming development,regulatory and economic challenges through improved government and industry collaboration.Note:Bcm or MtpaOnly EU27 numbers are used for biomethane due to limited data availability of either biometh

312、ane production targets,production levels,or both,in other major biomethane-producing countries.STEPS refers to IEAs stated policies scenario while APS refers to IEAs announced pledges scenario and NZE refers to IEAs net zero emissions by 2050 scenario.x 2.2 1.9 1.6 STEPS APS NZE 2.2 1.9 1.6 STEPS AP

313、S NZE Low-CO2 hydrogen(Mtpa)CCUS/CO2 Capture(Mtpa)Biomethane(Bcm)OperationalFID/Under constructionPre FIDFulfilled target2030 TargetProjected ability to meet 2030 targetx XXREPowerEU35 Capacity or production typeProjected target achievementUnfulfilled target18 TargetProductionCapacityCapacityTargets

314、Targets60 9 32 106 7 25 70 x x x 645 250 392 578 116 441 1024 Biomethane,also called renewable natural gas,is an upgraded and purified version of biogas,typically having a methane content of at least 90%.It is produced by capturing biogas from(a)decomposing organic materials,such as biowaste includi

315、ng in landfills and agricultural biomasses,or(b)from thermal gasification of solid biomass followed by methanation.It is a carbon-neutral fuel,since emissions from decomposition in(a)would have otherwise been released into the atmosphere,while carbon content from gasification in(b)is removed from th

316、e atmosphere by the biomass plants during their growth.Biomethane can directly replace natural gas and can be readily stored and distributed using existing gas infrastructure.Additionally,biomethane production supports a circular economy by turning waste from other sectors of the economy into energy

317、.The residual by-product(known as digestate)from biodigesters can then additionally be used as fertiliser in agriculture.While global biomethane production has been growing more rapidly in the recent years,its scale remains small compared to its massive potential Source:Rystad Energy;WBA;EBA;ArgusNo

318、te:Global Gas Report 202442Map 3:Global biomethane production,split by region currently only representing 1%of global gas market share.Synthetic methane or e-methane is another carbon-neutral alternative for natural gas.It is produced from a process that combines CO2 and hydrogen.To be carbon-neutra

319、l,e-methane should be produced from captured CO2 and green or blue hydrogen.Biomethane and synthetic methane can directly replace natural gas to be readily stored and distributed using existing gas infrastructure and be used in consumer appliances without any modifications.In the EU,more than 80%of

320、biomethane plants are connected to the grid,allowing for a seamless integration of biomethane into Europes energy system.This showcases the value of current infrastructure which acts as an enabler for the adoption of biomethane,avoiding additional capital expenditure costs and time spent on building

321、 new transmission and utilisation facilities.Currently,most biomethane production is concentrated in Europe and North America,but Asia and South America have been stepping up as well,as illustrated in Map 3.I.Biomethane and synthetic methaneThe latest production values in each region are presented,u

322、sing 2023 data where available;otherwise,2022 data is used.Combined production value for biogas and biomethane values are provided for Asia where biomethane-only production data is unavailable.2/Evolution of low-CO2 and decarbonised gas technologies Figure 37:EU27 Biomethane production vs potential

323、pathway to EU27 production target for 2030Global Gas Report 202443Production is expected to scale up rapidly in both regions alongside Asia,as biomethane is seen as a source of renewable energy and a method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Asia:In 2022,Asia produced over 13 Bcm of biogas and biome

324、thane most of which is biogas production with China and India being the main producers,each having set production targets.China is aiming to produce 20 Bcm of biomethane annually by 2030,while India aims to produce 15 million tonnes of compressed biogas by 2025 via implementing 5,000 commercial comp

325、ressed biogas units.These production targets would be supported by renewable energy policies in China that include state-level subsidies,while Indias policies focus on the Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation Initiative and the National Policy on Biofuels.Additionally,India plan

326、s to boost biogas demand by mandating that 1%of gas consumption must come from compressed biogas starting from 2025.This target will be gradually raised to 5%from 2028 to 2029.Chinas biogas industry first emerged via promoting biogas uptake in its residential population through the Chinese Rural Hou

327、sehold Biogas State Debt Project.The project successfully led to the installation of approximately 42 million household digestors by 2015.From that year,China gradually shifted its stance from domestic usage to engineered plants for combined heat and power generation.Since 2019,the government has pr

328、ioritised the development of large-scale bio-natural gas plants with a minimum annual production capacity of 0.01 Bcm.To build its expertise in large-scale biogas plants,the government spurred project development by increasing its subsidy for pilot projects from 25%to 45%in 2009.Strong government su

329、pport for biogas plants has led to investments into new plants,notably by French company Air Liquide in 2022 and German company EnviTec Biogas AG,which has at least eight biogas plants in China.Recently,China and India have been transitioning from individual household plants to industrial-sized faci

330、lities.This strategy enables centralised control and benefits from economies of scale.Europe:In 2022,Biomethane production in the EU reached 3.4 Bcm,approximately 10 times below the EUs 2030 target of 35 Bcm as outlined in the REPowerEU plan.As illustrated in Figure 37,achieving this goal requires s

331、ignificant commitment from EU 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.0 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.9 0510152025303540201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Billion cubic meters per yearBase scenario(business as usual)High scenario(post-REPowerEU potential)EU27 Business as usual:18 BcmEU27 2030 target:35 BcmRest of Europe

332、EU27ForecastHistoricalSource:Rystad Energy;EBA2023 capacity is forecasted based on announced projects.Base scenario is projected based on data available on historical growth rates(2019-2022).15 Assuming exchange rates of 1=US$1.07,A$1=US$0.67,JPY1=US$0.0062 and R$1=US$0.18.Note:2/Evolution of low-CO

333、2 and decarbonised gas technologies countries,with capacity needed to grow at a rate that is 50%higher than historical growth rates.From 2019 to 2022,biomethane production in the EU grew at a CAGR of 24%,but the 35 Bcm target requires production to grow at a CAGR of 36%from 2023 to 2030.To accelerate production,the European Biomethane Industrial Partnership estimates that all EU countries will nee