益普索：益普索2024人口世代報告（英文版）（20頁）.pdf

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1、IPSOS GENERATIONS REPORT 2024IPSOS VIEWS PrefaceWelcome to our latest generations report following from our previous deep dives on Millennial Myths,Gen Z more mild than wild and The Perennials.Media excitement over generational changes,as we noted previously,is often misleading or even wrong.Evidenc

2、e and data matter.In this edition we have adopted an international lens,while also showing why we need to stay close to local,cultural and historical contexts.For example,the term Baby Boomers may work in the United States and the UK,to denote people born in the decade after the Second World War.But

3、 if we go to Brazil,Nigeria or India,there was no population boom at this time.Where you were born and when you were born matters.Experience tells us that coming up with genuinely useful-and valid-insights and analysis on these topics is not as easy as some journalists think.It is also rare we have

4、the longitudinal data we would really need to describe generational change over time in a robust way.Looking forwards,we know of course that most predictions are wrong,not least in todays polycrisis environment.And this before we even consider the individual personal bias we all bring with us when w

5、e look at these topics.We are all,in different ways,products of our own cultures and contexts.At the same time,one known known is todays dramatic demographic shifts.The prospect of global population decline from the middle of this century now looks irreversible.Declining populations are already the

6、reality in over 30 countries,and fertility rates are falling even more quickly than predicted.Demography is already politics,and population change is a topic all of us in business need to prepare for.All of this is a reminder that anyone looking at trends and generational change needs to ask some ha

7、rd questions as we do here.Have a look around we look forward to discussing it all with you.Enjoy your reading!Ben Page Ipsos CEOGenerations 202423IPSOS VIEWS IPSOS VIEWSGenerations 2024Key findingsWe need to prepare for global population declineThe shrinking of population growth rates and the globa

8、l population decline,set to begin from the middle of the century onwards,will have profound implications for workforce planning,pension systems,and economic growth.Adjusting to ageing populations and considering the potentially vast market of older adults,who control a significant portion of wealth,

9、will be crucial for policymakers and businesses.Gen Z is probably the first truly global generationGeneration Z appears to have a distinct set of characteristics which transcend international borders.Better education and the use of the same social media are just two of the factors at work.They displ

10、ay higher levels of stress and loneliness,as well as a tendency to form relationships online.They exhibit more liberal social attitudes,although this comes with many caveats,with many nuances based on gender and geography.Understanding the unique attributes and behaviours of Gen Z is important for d

11、eveloping targeted products,services,and policies,as well as for engaging with this demographic in meaningful ways.Cultural and national contexts matter a lotThe term Baby Boomers and generational labels in general do not translate well globally.People in many countries are just not familiar with th

12、e terms being used so widely these days in business parlance.Not least because cultural and historical contexts significantly alter the collective experiences of generations.For instance,the extent to which there exists a baby boom period,or even its mere relevance,varies greatly across different co

13、untries.Decision-makers need to tailor their strategies to reflect these nuances and avoid one-size-fits-all approaches when thinking about different generations and age groups.Demography is already politics.Soon it will be a business issue tooDemographic changes are becoming a pressing political is

14、sue,akin to climate change,with debates surrounding overpopulation shifting to concerns about depopulation and its societal impacts.For businesses,demographic trends offer both challenges and opportunities,such as catering to underserved markets like the ageing population.There is mismatch between m

15、ature adults considerable assets/buying power and the level of marketing attention they get,which often borders on neglect.Strategic planning must now account for these trends to ensure businesses are on a stable and sustainable footing for future growth.Generalisations only take us so far.We need t

16、o embrace intra-generational diversityIt is crucial that we not only understand,but actively engage with the distinct characteristics and preferences of each generation.This extends to the implementation of tailored communication strategies,product development,and service delivery that resonate with

17、 the values and expectations of different age cohorts.For people under 30,this might mean leveraging their digital fluency and commitment to social causes,while also taking into account their diversity,and their financial and mental insecurity.For mature adults,this might mean tapping into their fin

18、ancial stability and desire for products that align with a more active,health-conscious lifestyle,while also considering their preference for no-non-sense,frugal and practical propositions.Businesses and policymakers must foster genuine connections with these diverse generational groups to unlock th

19、eir full economic and social potential.This requires a strategic shift from passive observation to proactive interaction,ensuring that every age group generation feels seen,heard,and valued within the marketplace and the political landscape.0104030205Businesses and policymakers must foster genuine c

20、onnections with these diverse generational groups to unlock their full economic and socialpotential.”45Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSINTRODUCTION:Key themes for 2024 and beyondIn this years reportWe present new survey and secondary data from around the world,with our analysi

21、s focusing on four key themes.First up,we wanted to go beyond the stereotypes and start to build a checklist for how to do a better job when it comes to analysing generations.Along the way we try to challenge our assumptions,think about where we can(and cannot)make certain generalisations and reflec

22、t on how we label and describe people from different age groups.Our tour moves on to explore the different dimensions of Generation Z,currently aged 12-28,as we look at what unites(and divides)them.Just how different are they from the Millennials and Generation Xers who went before?We ask whether th

23、ey truly are the first global generation.We also consider the famous Baby Boomers and explore the prevailing attitudes and aspirations of people in their sixties and seventies today.In the United States they represent 27%of the population,but control 70%of the assets.How can brands unlock the spendi

24、ng power of mature adults?Last,and certainly not least,is the question of demography.Whats clear straight away is that this is no longer a niche topic.Demography is politics.And the population changes now under way present new questions for businesses,large and small.We are conscious that,in many wa

25、ys,what we are sharing here reveals more questions than answers.In that spirit,we look forward to your ideas and reactions as we discuss together the dynamics of generational and population change and explore what it means for societies and businesses around the world.The prospect of global populati

26、on decline from the middle of this century now looks irreversible.Declining populations are already the reality in over 30 countries,and fertility rates are falling even more quickly than predicted.”Generations 20247IPSOS VIEWS6Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS%of people around the world correctly identif

27、ying which generation they are a part of58%US49%29 country average 24%China8%IndiaAmericans are more comfortable with these terms%of Americans correctly identifying which generation they are a part of48%Gen Z50%Millennials 62%Gen X86%Baby BoomersGenerations in numbersNot everyone is familiarwith gen

28、erational terms%of people across 29 countries correctly identifying which generation they are a part of41%Gen Z29%Millennials 33%Gen X38%Baby Boomers34%29-country average Many outside the US have not even heard of the term Generation Z Across the world,countries are feeling the effects of population

29、 decline%saying the population in their country will fall in 202482%South Korea74%China 74%Japan67%ItalyCountries with more Baby Boomers than Gen Z include:UK,France,Canada,Geramany,Italy,Spain,Poland,Japan,South Korea,ThailandShare of US wealth.50%Controlled by Baby Boomers(aged 59-79)74%Controlled

30、 by over 55sFalling birth rates are not due to a lack of desire for childrenThe ideal number of children to have (according to people in our 29-country survey)2.1The actual fertility rate in the countries surveyed1.630+countries will experience population decline in 2024 including.Albania,Armenia,Be

31、larus,Bosnia&Herzegovina,Bulgaria,China,Cuba,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Greece,Italy,Jamaica,Japan,Latvia,Lebanon,Lithuania,Monaco,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Russia,Serbia,South Korea,Ukraine,Uruguay89Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSBEYOND THE STEREOTYPES:A checklist for

32、 analysing generations1.Labels matterResearchers of a certain age(40+,or Gen X/Boomers,if you prefer)were trained to present analysis of their surveys in formats like this:The normal practice was to present age groups in a descriptive and factual way,usually in groupings spanning five,ten or 20 year

33、s.The precise choices would be a pragmatic affair,made on a case-by-case basis and often depending on the size of the survey.The more respondents you have,the more scope there is for detailed analysis.The last couple of decades have seen much analyst attention placed first on the new generation of M

34、illennials,who came of age during the early years of this century,and now on Gen Z following in their wake.These developments have changed how market researchers go about analysing their surveys.Todays analysis sees age categories joined(or even replaced)by generational definitions,with the categori

35、sation scheme set out by Strauss and Howe having become common practice among survey research practitioners and users in many parts of the world.Generation age in 2024 Generation Z12 to 28Millennials29 to 44Generation X45 to 58Baby Boomers 59 to 79But labels matter.By giving age categories labels,th

36、ey imply a meaning some kind of shared sense of attitudes,behaviours and experiences.Whether intentional it or not,when we declare(say)“Generation X believe this to be the case”,we are making a subliminal statement that we are describing a characteristic which is an enduring feature of the generatio

37、n under question.It may be that the characteristic we are describing is a lifecycle effect which will change as people get older,for example as a result of rising incomes.Or it may be a period effect,where attitudes/behaviours of all cohorts change in a similar way,for example as 1011Generations 202

38、4IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSa result of the pandemic.The hardest to spot(and arguably the most interesting)is a cohort effect where a group displays different characteristics and these stay different over time.We go in search of cohort effects in Generation Z:The first global generation?

39、For more on lifecycle,period and cohort effects,see our 2023 Generations Report.2.Shared understanding?Many of us are using these terms in our day-to-day work,for example in preparing our results presentations or developing future strategies for various policies,brands or services.But do the people

40、out there actually know what we are talking about?The answer is:it depends on where you are sitting.We asked people around the world for their perspective.Taking a 29-country average,just under half have heard of Generation Z,Millennials orGeneration X!And we immediately notice big differences by co

41、untry.The term“Millennials”is reasonably well known in a number of countries.But not everywhere.These words may be common parlance in a business context,but we should not assume they are well known to consumers/citizens/customers in real life.One place where these terms do have some resonance is Ame

42、rica,our reference point for generational theories and the spiritual home of the Baby Boomers.Here,some 62%are able to correctly identify which generation they are part of.But even in the US,we see variations in awareness of generations.While 86%of Boomers and 62%of Gen X are able to correctly ident

43、ify which generation they are a member of,just 48%of Gen Z can do the same.Generational awarenessWhich of the following generations,if any,had you heard of before this survey?Source:Global country average of 29 countries,conducted between November 22 and December 6,2023.Total base:21,631,adults aged

44、 16+or 18+.Country base:1,000 or 500.*Generation Gamma does not yet exist3.Context is keyWhats clear from our survey is that while Baby Boomers may be a familiar(ish)term to refer to those born in post-war North America or the UK or Australia,it does not necessarily travel well.In countries such as

45、Brazil,India and China,the term is simply not part of day-to-day discourse.The term does not really describe a common experience of those born in the period 1945-65 particularly well.In South Africa,the term Born Free is used to describe the cohort born since 1994 and who have grown up in the post-A

46、partheid era.In Germany,Die Generation 1989(roughly equivalent to Millennials)entered the labour market after re-unification.The term is particularly relevant to those growing up in the East.For Germans,Boomers were also Generation 68,because of their shared experience of the student movement of tha

47、t time.Norway is another of the few countries in the world where pop sociology in the media coined its own local contextual labels independently from the US.Each of them described people who were 20 years old at the time when they were first used:Dessertgenerasjonen(The Dessert Generation),a term co

48、ined in the 1960s to refer to the youth of that time who had always experienced the comfort provided by the Welfare State and post-war prosperity.Source:29-country Ipsos survey conducted between Nov.22nd and Dec.6th.2023.Base:N=21.631 adults aged 16+or 18+.Country base:N=1000 or 500%able to“correctl

49、y”identify which generation they are part of1213Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Ironigenerasjonen(The Irony Generation)who are the people born in the 1970s and whose mindset was judged as strongly different from those of previous generations.Snfnuggenerasjonen(The Snowflake G

50、eneration)who are people who turned 20 in the 2010s and are supposed to have an extreme sense of their own individual uniqueness.In a society like Norways,this is a bit derogatory!4.Dont lose sight of the bigger pictureBut there is another,perhaps even better,reason not to take generational construc

51、ts for granted.What if they dont tell the whole story behind customer behaviour?A good case study is provided by Ipsos on socially conscious purchasers in the Anglosphere.A socially conscious purchaser is a consumer who made or changed a purchase decision based on environmental,social or ethical con

52、cerns.Compared against other generations,Gen Z are the most likely to report socially conscious purchase behaviour.However,due to the population size differences between the generations,this higher penetration of behaviours among Gen Z does not mean they make up the majority of socially conscious pu

53、rchasers.In actuality,theyre only one socially conscious purchaser in four.Fixating on one generations attitudinal differences risks missing out on the bigger picture.“Yes,Gen Z are more socially conscious”%of socially conscious purchasers in the US,Great Britain,Ireland,Australia and New Zealand“Bu

54、t remember:75%of SCPs are not Gen Z”Profile of SCPsSource:Ipsos Global AdvisorSource:Ipsos Global Advisor5.Mind the gender gapOne of the most telling lessons weve learned when analysing generations is to make sure we keep an open mind and look for the broader dynamic at play.We need to avoid being d

55、rawn into making simple generalisations,such as how one generation compares to another.Take gender,for example.Our research for International Womens Day shows vividly the different outlooks by gender across each age group.Generation Z is a particular focus,given the growing evidence of a divergence

56、between the views of men and women.Alongside gender,there may be other factors such as income or education level which may have more powerful analytical impact than a simple description of whats happening by generation.One of the important reasons for this is the steady rise in the median age of hea

57、ds of households in,e.g.,the US and the falling share of households whose head is under 30.And coming back to age and generations,we shouldnt be constrained by generational constructs.It may be that 30-60 is the target audience for my product,a category which spans three of our four standard generat

58、ional categories.But if thats the group we are targeting,thats how we should structure our analysis framework!6.Think about who is not coveredWe have one final point for consideration when it comes to analysing generations.Which is that we need to think about who may not be covered in our research a

59、t all.In the early days of the internet,access was heavily skewed towards younger people.And as online surveys grew,it became harder than before to include a full range of people,particularly those in older groups.These days,with near-universal internet access in some(but by no means all)countries,s

60、o-called nationally representative surveys often exclude those aged over 65 or 75 and many more specific studies,focused on the target audience may have a cut-off of age 40 or 50.In markets like the UK and US,a nationally representative sample of adults aged 16-64 will exclude more than one in five

61、people.As we show later in this report,Generation X and Baby Boomers have access to considerable wealth and resources.Are we missing a trick by excluding them from our surveys?1415Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSSource:U.S.Census Bureau,Current Population Survey,March and Annu

62、al Social and Economic Supplements,1960 to 2023.Source:International Womens Day 2024 survey.Base:24,269 online adults.22 December 2023-5 January,2024Households by age of householder in the USHave we gone too far?%who agree we have gone so far in promoting womens requality we are now discriminating a

63、gainst menGENERATION Z:The first global generation?In search of cohort effectsPeople born since 1996 regardless of their country of origin share a certain number of common characteristics.They were born at a time when emerging economies(the so-called BRICs)started to catch up with North America,Euro

64、pe,and Japan.This economic convergence brought some degree of social convergence,as living standards rose,education levels improved,and healthcare provision became more universal.Meanwhile,there is the shared experience provided by mass access to new technologies of all kinds,including the internet,

65、gaming and social media platforms.The oldest Gen Zers were only seven years old when Facebook was launched.We can thus say they are social media natives,not just digital natives,as was said of Millennials,who were born with the PC.Perhaps todays Generation Z are the first truly global generation,hav

66、ing more in common across borders than with people in their own country?Here are some of the key themes we found as we researched the topic for this report.First up,we find some clear areas of convergence:1617Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSAREA OF CONVERGENCE1:Feeling stresse

67、dWhatever the country,people born since 1996 show striking similarities when it comes to both how stressed and how lonely they feel.Perhaps this is because they were all impacted by the Covid pandemic at the same time,at the very moment when they were reaching adulthood.But other factors,such as unc

68、ertainty about their future economic security and the standard of living which their educational attainments should guarantee,such as access to housing,as well as social media-fed fears of missing out and over-expectation,could also be playing a role.Either way,the chart below is striking.“The data

69、appears strong enough for us to suggest that there is truly something distinctive going on here.”Although we do not have longitudinal data to tell us how Gen Xers felt in 1995 or Boomers in 1970,the age gradient in the data appears strong enough for us to suggest that there is truly something distin

70、ctive going on here.Source:Ipsos Essentials.Base:10,042 online adults aged 16-74 across 15 countries,August 2023Whatever the country,Gen Z show striking similarities when it comes to their state of mind%describing their state of mind as stressed or lonelyAREA OF CONVERGENCE 2:Making friendsOf the ma

71、ny stereotypes about Gen Z,the most likely to be true and easily generalisable on a global level is that theyre more likely to spend time interacting with friends online than offline,and more likely to form relationships online than any other generation.But more likely doesnt mean that they dont val

72、ue in-person relationships.Circumstances(including life stage effects,as theyre sometimes studying or working far away from family and friends)can also explain this,probably more so than just a generational mindset.Source:Ipsos Essentials.Base:10,042 online adults aged 16-74 across 15 countries,Augu

73、st 2023New friendship patterns(%agree)1819Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSAREA OF CONVERGENCE 3:Social attitudesWhile loneliness and a tendency to make friends online rather than in person can,to a greater or lesser extent,be explained by context and life stage effects,when it

74、 comes to general outlook on life and underlying values,things are not so straightforward.This is where cohort effects can be looked for.The similarity of information received by this generation across the world might be much higher than for previous generations and this could play a role here.A goo

75、d example of the kind of attitude unlikely to be attributed to life stage and context only is the agreement with the idea that same-sex couples should have the same rights to adopt children as heterosexual couples do.So,do we have a cohort effect?The evidence presented so far shows that we may well

76、have a Gen Z cohort effect when it comes to feelings,reported behaviours and general outlook.From a methodological point of view,the most important thing to understand is the extent to which a cohort effect can exist beyond and independently of other factors,such as life stage or period effects(such

77、 as the pandemic).But its also clear that there are important mitigating factors,such as gender,geography,education,and social class(all of which are strongly interrelated).These mitigating factors should be considered when designing marketing strategies or public policies.Source:Ipsos LGBT+Pride 20

78、23.Base:22,514 online adults aged 16-74 across 30 countriesSocial attitudes%who agree same-sex couple should have the same rights to adopt children as heterosexual couples doMITIGATING FACTOR1:GeographyGeographical differences are interesting because they mitigate cohort effects without completely s

79、uppressing them.To illustrate this,lets look at attitudes towards gender roles.These are often rooted in local cultures and the transgenerational transfers of values and attitudes which underpin them.And yet,as can be seen in our chart,the differences between generations can be just as great in coun

80、tries where an attitude is in the minority(e.g.Thailand)vs countries where it is far more widely shared(e.g.Great Britain).However,it remains the case that US Gen Zers are almost twice as likely to disagree that the role of women in society is to be good mothers and wives than Thai Gen Zers.For more

81、 on generational differences in attitudes towards gender,see our 2024 International Womans Day report.It remains the case that US Gen Zers are almost twice as likely to disagree that the role of women in society is to be good mothers and wives than Thai Gen Zers.”Source:Ipsos Global Trends 2023.Base

82、:c1,000 adults per country aged 16-74,September-November 2022Geographical differences%of people who disagree that the main role of women in society is to be good mothers and wives2021Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSMITIGATING FACTOR Mind the gender gapEven within national(or c

83、ultural)borders,cohort effects can interplay with gender effects and mitigate each other,as has been recently highlighted by careful analysis of political attitudes across the world,but can also be inferred from recent Ipsos data.In 2024,we are seeing particular patterns within Generation Z.If we si

84、mply describe the views of Gen Z as a whole,we risk losing sight of the bigger picture.In Britain,for example,we see an emerging tension between young men and women around gender positions in society.Source:Emerging Tensions.Base:3,716 UK adults aged 16+,17-23 August 2023Who has it harder?When think

85、ing about society in Britain,do you think today it is harder to be a man,or harder to be a woman,or is there not much difference?Where do we end up?Our tentative conclusion here is that cohort effects are likely,but not definite.Generation Z is more uniform globally than previous cohorts were in the

86、 way they:Feel(including stress and loneliness);Form relationships;Consider gender identities and roles,etc.But the question remains:what explains these effects?Firstly,the context at crucial times in life plays a significant role in shaping one cohorts outlook in the long term.In 2023,Gen Z seemed

87、to be more positive about their countrys state of affairs than Millennials were ten years ago,when they were the same age.Another possible explanation,all other things remaining equal,is that 2013 was a worse time to start a career than 2023 was,particularly in places like the US,Mexico,Italy,or Ind

88、ia which we lumped up together for the sake of data analysis.It remains to be seen how long Gen Z will continue with this more positive experience.Source:Ipsos Global Advisor.Base:692,000,aged 16-64,2013-2022.Countries:US,Italy,Korea,India,South Africa&MexicoTodays Gen Z are happier now than when Mi

89、llennials were the same age(%satisfied with countries state of affairs)In any case,as we stressed earlier in this report,this generation was globally more homogeneous than previous ones in terms of its average level of educational attainment and its access to information and knowledge.2223Generation

90、s 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSCharacteristics to watch1.Life stageThe jury is still out as to whether Gen Zers will,for example,remain more committed to socially conscious buying when a majority of them are in a different life stage,for instance,with several kids and a mortgage to pay

91、 for.But social consciousness,cultural liberalism and egalitarianism are not primarily determined by an individuals personal economic position.Education plays a far more important role.These values could therefore stick to this generation beyond its current life stage.And yet,it would also be unwise

92、 to infer specific behaviours from these general attitudes.In many instances,Gen Z have demonstrated a large say-do gap.2.Conformity vs diversityIt remains to be seen whether the apparent gender divide among them is going to resorb or widen further.It is often said(though not necessarily proven)that

93、 Gen Z show more indifference towards certain gender stereotypes and are more likely to reject being boxed into pre-defined identities than previous generations were.If this is demonstrated at a global level,it should still be mitigated by the effects of the greater gender divide mentioned above.An

94、important direction for further research is indeed the inner diversity of Gen Z,despite this global convergence which is tangible in the data points presented in this report.Gen Zs inner diversity could be a faithful reflection of the larger trend in social development which combines global converge

95、nce(convergence between countries and regions of the globe)and local divergence(deeper inequalities and ideological or cultural divides within societies).3.Joining the mainstream?It can be inferred that since Gen Zers tend to settle in life far later than people of the same age several decades ago,t

96、he behaviours they adopt in their current life stage are also more likely to stick.Their lower fertility rates also point to different family sizes in the long run,and this could durably affect their behaviours as well.The example of Boomers,especially in North America and Europe,shows that as peopl

97、e grow older,they tend to cherish fond memories of their youth and that nostalgia can play a role in preserving and cultivating the specificities of a given generation.But,in North America and Western Europe,Boomers exerted a very strong influence on the societies they lived in because of their heav

98、y demographic weight.Gen Z wont be able to leverage their demographic weight to the same extent as previous generations.Instead of exerting a cultural influence as strong as previous generations did,they might remain outside the mainstream for longer in the places where they live and where they are

99、not in a majority.At the same time,they may form transborder global tribes with a specific and lasting generational culture that both unites them globally and sets them apart locally.If Gen Z is never to be the most determinant factor in what the mainstream is in the societies in which they live,the

100、n they may feel the need to reassert their generational identity.OH BOOMER:Where art thou?Name callingIn an earlier article,we observed Gen Z might be the first global generation.While Baby Boomers are often referenced as such,they are anything but.The baby boom,a term used to describe those born be

101、tween 1946-1964,was not a truly global phenomenon.A quick glance at the graphic below indicates the term hardly applies in Brazil,India and Nigeria.While these countries experienced population surges at different times,they did not coincide with the boom in North America and Western Europe so global

102、 use of the term“Baby Boomer”to describe those born between 1946-1964 can be misleading.Perhaps instead of this description,something like“mature adults”or“adults of a certain age”may be more representative?Examples of baby booms or fertility peaks1950 Brazils peak1957United State peak1964Indias pea

103、k1978Nigerias peakSource;UN population Division2425Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSObsessionSince the middle of the 20th century,marketing has been tilted towards youth.This obsession with young people comes at the risk of missing out on greater opportunities.In many countries

104、,mature adults make up a much greater number of the countrys population than Gen Z.In the US,those born between 1946-1964 make up 25%of the total population,while Gen Z represent just 17%.In Italy,a country grappling with effects of a rapidly ageing population,mature adults number 28%with Gen Z just

105、 12%.Meanwhile,in Nigeria,a country expected to become one of the most populous by the end of the century,Gen Z make up over a third(35%),while only one in ten(9%)are Baby Boomers.For marketers,focusing too much on younger generations means not only ignoring a greater proportion of the population,bu

106、t one with more money to spend.In the US while mature adults make up 25%of the US population,they hold 70%of the assets.This is not just the case in the US.As many countries around the world grapple with a cost-of-living crisis,77%of mature adults globally feel financially stable.Marketings preoccup

107、ation with youth has meant older adults rarely see themselves represented in the world of advertising.Our advertising assessment database at Ipsos tells us that only 8%of ads globally in the past three years featured a grey-haired/mature adult in a primary role.And while they may or may not care,mat

108、ure adults have noticed.Marketing efforts with cast members full of Gen Zs and Millennials leave most mature adults feeling as if they are not represented in the ads they see(and these are the ones they see that are theoretically targeted to them).Forty-one per cent across all generations*think adve

109、rtisers value people under 50 more than people over 50.This view rises to 51%of mature adults.Despite representing a healthy percentage of the population and controlling a very healthy percentage of assets around the planet,this group is curiously neglected in marketing and when they are represented

110、,it is often with the implication they should want to look and act younger.For marketers,focusing too much on younger generations means not only ignoring a greater proportion of the population,but one with more money to spend.”What we have here is failure to communicateIt can be harder to unlock spe

111、nding when people are in a behavioural groove and happy with what they have and it is true that older adults can be a harder nut to crack for marketers.76%of mature adults say they like to keep their lives simple as far as possessions are concerned.”76%of mature adults say they like to keep their li

112、ves simple as far as possessions are concerned.Compared to Millennials,mature adults are 30%more likely to say“I usually only buy the things I need”.Though once painted as a hedonistic me generation,most mature adults express little interest in aspirational brand-badging these days.With younger cons

113、umers more engaged in a number of categories and out-of-home activities,perhaps we in the marketing community can be forgiven for gravitating to those with natural interests in what were peddling.But if we want to unlock this mismatch in buying power and actual buying,it becomes vital to get a bette

114、r understanding of mature adults and the relationship between their relative contentment and economic participation.Source:UN population dataGenerational breakdown by country2627Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSIt is time to engage on their terms.Not all but the vast majority-o

115、f this age cohort is telling us:01 They want to age gracefully and without the aid of youth-storing chemicals and procedures02 They dont see themselves cast in the messages they receiveSo lets not fixate so much on selling them what we have or trying to convince them to be something they dont want t

116、o be but find out what they want,and make that!And while were at it,lets remember that even within an age cohort,there are major differences:Across countries and;Among sub-segments within countries.Myths and realitiesMature adults are just as likely to feel good physically and mentally as Millennial

117、s56%of mature adults say they feel good both physically and mentally compared to.57%.of MillennialsOmnichannel is not just for young people62%of mature adults say they find it important to buy something online and have it delivered.Boomers are more liberal than Gen Z on abortion and more likely to s

118、ay it should be legal.And although Boomer women are less likely than Gen Z women to define themselves as“a feminist”,theyre also less likely to consider that men are being expected to do too much to support equality.Marketing to Boomers requires targeted messaging and products as needs differStruggl

119、ersStriversChill indulgenceSimple contentmentFinancially stressed,frustratedBuying gives pleasureEat based on tasteCalm state of mindBuying gives pleasureNeed to look good in publicWatch TV if more timeFinancially secureWant support for mental healthWhat you own is who you areIndifferent state of mi

120、ndHealth focusedSource:Ipsos R&DGetting to know youMature adults are not a bunch of conservative,grumpy,greedy cash hoarders.They are a big group.They dont all think or behave in the same way.Ipsos is now developing a new segmentation approach which has identified four groups.These can be broken dow

121、n into:Simple Contentment,Chill Indulgence,Strugglers,and Strivers.Each has specific characteristics,as the table below illustrates.One thing that unites them,though,is a desire to age gracefully.Mature adults,in the main,are not particularly driven by the desire to look 25-30 years younger.One thin

122、g that unites them Baby Boomers,though,is a desire to age gracefully.Mature adults,in the main,are not particularly driven by the desire to look 25-30 years younger.”2829Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSAdjusting our behaviourAs a marketing community,we are doing comparatively

123、little to try to engage mature adults.We might need a vocabulary adjustment when it comes to Boomers,but whatever we call them,they are a segment with great spending power that cant find itself in modern communications casting.And most of them might not be so obsessed with pretending to be young or

124、in clinging to a demographic to which they no longer belong.While they can be a difficult audience to engage,were likely to have success if we do so on their terms.We can begin by asking ourselves some tough questions:Are we speaking of(and to)an entire generation in a broad,inaccurate brush stroke?

125、Globally,should we refer to mature adults as Boomers?How much do we know about different types of mature adults?What will it take to engage them and tap into their buying power?As researchers,do we make generational comparisons in a disciplined way?At what age do we cap survey participation?DEMOGRAP

126、HY ISPOLITICS.Soon it will be a busness issue,too.Population decline is hereThe reality of falling populations is now a global issue,not just a local one.Our starting point may be that only about 30 countries will experience population decline in 2024,but this list of countries already includes Chin

127、a,Japan,Italy,South Korea and much of Eastern Europe.Future decades will see this number rise.2023 saw the apparently dramatic news that global population had now reached eight billion and growth is set to continue for a few more decades,driven largely by increased life expectancy.But absolute popul

128、ation decline,from as early as 2064,now looks inevitable for our planet.Indeed,it may well be that the global population will never reach the milestone of ten billion,even if the UNs median scenario still predicts it for 2058.In the meantime,ageing populations present an ever-increasing set of chall

129、enges.For example,the old age dependency ratio is deteriorating fast,meaning that more ageing people will have to be supported by fewer workers.3031Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSWorking age to old age dependency ratioCountry20242075Japan54.975.3Germany42.463.1Italy41.767.0Gr

130、eece39.475.2France39.055.8Spain35.470.4United Kingdom34.853.0OCED average33.958.6United States32.249.3South Korea29.478.8Source:OCEDPopulation decline getsnoticedNew data from Ipsos finds a reasonable degree of awareness that the population is now falling or not growing as fast as it used to.The pre

131、ssures it places on pensions and public services mean it is starting to become a political issue and an important national conversation for many countries.But are these conversations starting too late?Falling fertilityOne of the reasons why demography is politics is that,while the decline in fertili

132、ty rates may be irreversible,governments have to decide whether to introduce policies designed to slow down or reverse the direction of travel.The ideal number of children measured by Ipsos in a set of countries across the world is 2.1,on average,which is exactly in line with the replacement rate wh

133、ich would make populations stable in the long run.But people actually expect to have an average of 1.8 children during their lifetime,0.3 fewer than they ideally would have.And the latest fertility rate among the 27 countries covered in our survey is even lower,at 1.6,meaning that even those diminis

134、hed expectations would still,on average,be too optimistic.Source:29-country Ipsos survey conducted between Nov.22nd and Dec.6th.2023.Ideal vs.current fertility rateQ:What is the ideal number of children to have?3233Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSIn many Western and ageing cou

135、ntries,the sentiment is often expressed that“people dont want to bring children into todays terrible world anymore”.Our new data suggests that this may not be the central reason.To illustrate,take a look at the Ipsos data for France.Personal factors ranging from age,individual circumstances,economic

136、 considerations and a feeling they already have enough children are more prominent.Meanwhile,in Malaysia and Indonesia,people expect to have more children than fertility rates predict.This suggests that,in those countries,there still exists a tension between the demographic transition resulting from

137、 rapid economic and social change(fast diminishing birth rates)and the cultural values of the population(having many children is a matter of pride).Personal factors play a bigger role in peoples decision not to have children than the state of the world or a lack of desire24%Physiological reasons18%F

138、inancial reasons 18%Personal situation11%Already enough kids11%State of the world7%Dont wantSource:29-country Ipsos survey conducted between Nov.22nd and Dec.6th.2023.Total base:N=21.631 adults aged 16+or 18+.Country base:N=1000 or 500The largest difference between the expected and the actual number

139、 of children is in South Korea,which has the lowest fertility rate in the world(the latest estimation is below 0.8!).This shows that many South Korean women cannot have the number of children they would ideally like to have and are actually faced with more obstacles than anticipated.Until quite rece

140、ntly,overpopulation and not depopulation was the main concern of academics,politicians and citizens alike.A symbol of this concern was the lasting and global success of Anne and Paul Ehrlichs The Population Bomb,published in 1968.The themes developed by the Ehrlichs in The Population Bomb were parti

141、cularly adept at capturing the public imagination:better access to healthcare and medicines would backfire in the form of unbearable stress on food resources,leading to famine and all sorts of disaster.Mentions of overpopulation peaked in the 1970s but didnt begin to decline until the mid-2000s and

142、only very slowly.Many influential people still champion the reduction of the global population,viewing the current eight billion count as untenable for the long-term survival of the planet.This belief is in harmony with the UNs Social Development Goals(SDGs)and underpins both public and private sect

143、or policies on sustainability and environmental conservation.There was,until very recently,a strong consensus that overpopulation is the main risk to mankind and that birth control and economic progress would contribute to resolving the problem by lowering fertility and diminishing family sizes.This

144、 indeed happened,faster than one had even imagined,and demography stopped being a major theme in the public debate in the past few decades.But now most definitely,demography is politics.Many influential people still champion the reduction of the global population,viewing the current eight billion co

145、unt as untenable for the long-term survival of the planet.”3435Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSDemography as a political issueDemography is transforming into a political issue in the same vein as climate change.What began as a niche discussion among scientists and activists is

146、 now gaining momentum as population change becomes a reality.One of the main worries is the sustainability of current welfare state models.In countries where the pension system is funded by a levy on wages earned by employed workers only(e.g.,Germany,France,and to a lesser extent,the US,Japan,or Rus

147、sia),the financial viability of the pension system depends heavily on the ratio of retirees to working individuals.Ageing societies and decreasing birth rates threaten to push this ratio dangerously close to 1:1,potentially exceeding it in the future.Divergent sides are forming,and it has already em

148、erged as an electoral issue in countries such as Italy and Spain.President Xi of China even highlighted population decline as a concern at Chinas recent National Womens Congress,encouraging delegates to have more children.Far-right populist parties often strive to reverse the social progress of rece

149、nt decades.They aim to limit immigration and stigmatise sexual and gender minorities.Increasingly,they advocate a new form of natalism neonatalism-that emphasises support,not for working mothers,but for mothers who stay at home and have children.With traditional policies of child and parental suppor

150、t having limited impact*,a new school of thought promises results by adopting a different approach:restrict womens reproductive choices,strengthen the traditional family structure,support established religion,promote cultural cohesion,and discourage immigration.For instance,Hungary still allows abor

151、tions,but only after a doctor has made the pregnant woman listen to the foetus heartbeat.Viktor Orbns Hungary has had only limited success with these policies,whose main component were strong financial incentives,with Hungary once being the least fertile nation globally and now doing slightly better

152、 than other Central and Eastern European countries.However,the cost incurred is substantial,and the prevention of further decreases in birth rates does not necessarily halt population decrease and the shrinking of the countrys available manpower.Emigration and brain drain often more than offset the

153、positive effects of natalist policies.Argentinas new president,Javier Milei,although a libertarian on economic issues,is committed to rescinding the recent legislation legalising abortion.This stance is also adopted by the self-proclaimed Hungary still allows abortions,but only after a doctor has ma

154、de the pregnant woman listen to the foetus heartbeat.”libertarians within the US Republican Party,like Kentuckys junior US Senator Rand Paul.Chinas communist government is exerting even more pressure on women:in a country without a universal pension scheme,children have traditionally taken care of t

155、he elderly.Chinese women are thus burdened with three increasingly incompatible responsibilities as population decline and ageing impact Chinese society:having and raising children,caring for the elderly,and working to support the national economy.How long Chinese women will continue to bear these m

156、onumental responsibilities remains uncertain.Marketing in the age of population declineSo far,this topic rarely features in marketing literature and news coverage of brands strategic initiatives.Author Larry Light claims that demographic shifts often imply a strategic reorientation of brand portfoli

157、os and gives an interesting example:Reckitt Benckisers Enfamil,a baby formula,is currently doing well.But this categorys future is,by definition,dependent on birth rates and therefore increasingly uncertain.Yet,Enfamils expertise in infant nutrition could be used to generate supplements for ageing p

158、opulations.Though local initiatives to develop products,even in emerging markets,have begun to emerge,our trawl of the evidence did not find any global brand not related to healthcare or ageing care having made recent announcements on this topic.The general idea is that brands aim to serve the under

159、served in order to continue growing.However,examples are still primarily limited to products associated with maintaining physical health and wellbeing,rather than addressing other aspects of ageing like the need for smaller packaging(both because of weight and because of smaller household sizes),eld

160、erly peoples supposed reluctance to change their habits,etc.Demography is coming back to the forefront of politics almost all over the world.Overpopulation and birth control dominated the conversation about demography during most of the second half of the 20th century.Population decline is set to be

161、 the cornerstone of the debate that is shaping up in this century.3637Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWSThree coalitions are forming:Progressive de-populationist An alliance of environmentalists and post-materialists who advocate putting the brakes on growth,including population

162、.Progressive re-populationistA faction raising the alarm about the potentially destructive effects of population decline on welfare states.Socially conservative re-populationist An alliance of those who champion a return to traditional values and those who want to find an alternative to immigration

163、from more fertile to less fertile countries,and are prepared to achieve this goal by restricting or even suppressing reproductive choice.Though demography is thus definitely politics again,it is still far from being a prominent topic in conversations about brand strategy and long-term brand growth,a

164、lthough it probably should be.We look forward to hearing your views and ideas on what feels like an under-explored topic.Population decline is set to be the cornerstone of the debate that is shaping up in this century.”010203Further ReadingWE NEED TO TALK ABOUT GENERATIONSApril 2023IPSOS VIEWSGENERATION Z DO THEY EXIST AND WHAT INFLUENCES THEM?The future o f ag e i n gTHE PERENNIALSMILLENNIALMyths and RealitiesEMPTIER PLANETAre we ready for the shock of the global population decline?Darrell Bricker,Ph.D.|May 2021IPSOS VIEWS38Generations 2024IPSOS VIEWS