naamsa：2023年南非新能源車輛新路線圖白皮書（英文版）（79頁）.pdf

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1、THE ROUTE TO THE WHITE PAPERnaamsaTHE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS COUNCILSOUTH AFRICAS NEW ENERGY VEHICLE ROADMAP THOUGHT LEADERSHIP DISCUSSION DOCUMENTMonday,February 20,2023 South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1 1 SOUTH AFRICAS NEW ENERGY VEHICLE ROADMAP THOUGHT

2、LEADERSHIP DISCUSSION DOCUMENT THE ROUTE TO THE WHITE PAPER TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.Executive Summary 1.1.Why decarbonising road transport is mission critical 1.2.The grand challenge of the twenty-first century 1.3.The auto industry policy proposals 2 2 3 4 2.The Path to New Energy Vehicles NEVs 7 3.Glo

3、bal Climate Change Commitments 12 4.South Africas Just Transition 19 5.Environmental,Social and Governance Metrics 26 6.The South African Automotive Industry in perspective 6.1.Automotive Policy Evolution 6.2.MIDP and APDP 6.3.SAAM 2021-2035 6.4.South African Automotive Industry Key Performance Indi

4、cators 6.5.South African New Vehicle and NEV Landscape 6.6.Automotive Exports and Relevance of the EU 29 29 30 31 33 37 7.Global Automotive Environment and Trends 7.1.Global Vehicle Production 7.2.Global New Vehicle Sales 7.3.Global NEV Landscape 7.4.NEV Ecosystem 44 44 46 48 53 8.Charging Infrastru

5、cture 55 9.NEV Transitional Requirements 9.1.NEV Purchasing Subsidy 9.2.Alignment of SADC-EU EPA NEV duties 9.3.Localisation of NEV Components 9.4.NEV Investment Projects 58 62 65 68 71 10.Conclusion 74 South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2 2 1.EXECUTIVE SU

6、MMARY On November 12,2021,the COP26 Joint Declaration or Glasgow Climate Pact established the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.This global commitment was reaffirmed again at COP27 held from 06 November to 20 November 2022 in Sharm El Sheikh,Egypt.The South African automotive industry and

7、its social and business partners appreciate the importance of this goal and are working diligently to contribute to the decarbonisation of road transport in support of this broader objective.We also recognise that no single government policy or industry commitment alone will achieve this ambitious g

8、oal.We must work collaboratively-at all levels of government and across all economic sectors-to identify the range of approaches necessary to establish sustainable pathways to carbon neutrality across sectors and the unique circumstances of the South African economic landscape.1.1.Why decarbonising

9、road transport is mission critical The auto industry understands the important role it plays in decarbonising road transport as a way to help achieve this broader goal.According to the International Energy Agency IEA,transport as a whole contributed in 2020 to 37%of the global CO2 emissions from end

10、-use sectors,while road transport cars,trucks and buses accounted for 76%of the total transport sector.As a result,28%of the global CO2 emission is,according to the IEA,attributed to the road transport sector.In our country,the South African National Greenhouse Gas Inventory confirms that Transport

11、has been identified as the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions,accounting for around 10,8%of National GHG emissions.Aviation emissions accounts for 5%;Maritime 2,2%;Rail 1,6%;and direct emissions from the road sector,accounts for 91,2%,mainly from the combustion of petrol and diesel.O

12、ur countrys Green Transport Strategy under the stewardship of the Department of Transport confirms that South Africas vision is to substantially reduce Green House Gas Emissions and other environmental impact from transportation by 5%in 2050.To this end,the automotive industry is planning to invest$

13、515 billion globally by 2030 to help facilitate the transition to a New Energy Vehicle NEVs future including battery,plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles,while simultaneously continuing to innovate on the broad array of powertrain technologies necessary to meet the broad and diverse needs

14、of a global market.This includes,for example,internal combustion engines ICE with carbon neutral fuels.While the long-term trajectory certainly embraces a shift toward electrification,the industry recognises,at present,no single technology is capable of achieving carbon neutrality across the global

15、automotive industry.South Africa needs the flexibility to adopt multiple technologies and policies best suited to its unique socio-economic realities:including current pressures to the national fiscus;our geographical location;persistent socio-economic challenges;slow economic growth trajectory;and

16、geopolitical considerations within the region and across the African continent.Technology neutral and multiple approaches provide more practical and sustainable pathways to carbon neutrality.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3 3 The auto industry therefor

17、e,advocates for and encourages a collective embrace of the following nationally established principles:that as we work towards carbon neutrality and rapid reduction of carbon emissions,electrification will play a leading role.This transition to electrification,however,will require a comprehensive pl

18、an that takes the present market realities into consideration,as well as the on-going investment and innovation in newer ICE technologies and low carbon fuels;South Africa working with all its social and business partners should proceed towards the achievement of carbon neutrality by implementing pr

19、actical and sustainable technological and policy measures tailored to our specific circumstances as a country and not use a shot gun or cut and paste approach to our national solutions;and against the backdrop of our countrys current and persistent energy challenges,it is essential also for our indu

20、stry to pursue and achieve automotive carbon neutrality through comprehensive national industrial and energy policies that effectively promote the competitiveness of the auto sector.1.2.The grand challenge of the twenty-first century Climate change is the most pressing grand challenge of the twenty-

21、first century.The science is clear that global warming must be kept below 1.5 C to avoid the worst of climate impacts.To do so,greenhouse gas GHG emissions must be reduced dramatically over the next three decades to reach net zero emissions by 2050.Since transportation is a major contributor to CO e

22、missions globally,changes in technology are therefore at the core of the transition to the vehicle of the future,which is primarily linked to electric as far as passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are concerned.Governments across the world have been increasingly introducing policies or stre

23、ngthening existing policies to ensure an uptake in new energy vehicle NEV purchases in efforts to reduce carbon emissions.The South African automotive industry will have to adapt to the current rapid technological transition to NEVs to maintain and further grow its automotive manufacturing ambitions

24、.As vehicle emissions regulations tighten globally,with associated costs,the shift is towards eco-friendly vehicles,which will be the future driving technology adopted by the global automotive industry.The demand for NEVs is driven largely by government incentives and the imperative to combat climat

25、e change in regions such as the European Union-the domestic automotive industrys top export region,which aims to become a zero-carbon economy by 2035.Since 2020,developments in the domestic automotive industrys key export markets contributed to enhance the pace of the NEV landscape in South Africa t

26、hrough governments efforts to green the economy and to position South Africa as a centre for advanced green manufacturing.In 2021,South African passenger car and light commercial vehicle exports accounted for a significant 63,1%of total light vehicle production.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Trans

27、itional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 4 4 Europe dominated as a region,accounting for 77,1%of the total,or nearly four out of every five vehicles exported.As an export-oriented industry and in order not to lose exports to its key markets,the technological transition shift to NEVs is therefore ine

28、vitable.However,vehicle exports to the domestic automotive industrys top export destinations,the UK,and the EU,are subject to strict Rules of Origin requiring 60%local content in a vehicle to ensure duty-free access.Without battery manufacturing in South Africa or the UK and the EU,flexibility in th

29、e strict Rules of Origin requirements would be imperative for ongoing duty-free market access.For the South African automotive industry,support would be required for the transition to NEVs in line with the objectives of the South African Automotive Masterplan SAAM 2021-2035.As part of the recommenda

30、tions of the jointly funded naamsa-DTIC NEV Research Study,NEV sales targets of 20%of the total by 2025,40%by 2030 and 60%by 2035 have been set linked to appropriate support to stimulate demand for NEVs as well as the manufacture NEVs and NEV components in the country.Globally,NEV sales have been pa

31、rticularly impressive over the last three years,even as COVID-19 shrank the market for conventional cars and as manufacturers started grappling with supply-chain bottlenecks.The net growth in global car sales in 2021 came from NEVs.In 2021,NEV sales more than doubled to 6,6 million,representing 11,7

32、%of the global passenger car market,and more than tripling their market share from two years earlier.China accounted for more than half of all electric cars sold,but theres also strong growth in Europe and the US.Globally,OEMs are accelerating their NEV launch plans,partly to comply with increasingl

33、y stringent regulations in Europe and China,along with a raft of new model launches and government-sponsored incentives.BEVs use lithium-ion batteries to power their operation and release no greenhouse gas emissions and are less harmful to the environment when they are charged using electricity gene

34、rated from renewable sources.1.3.The auto industry policy proposals On 18 May 2021,the DTIC published a Green Paper on the advancement of new energy vehicles in South Africa.The aim of the Green Paper was to establish a clear policy foundation to coordinate a long-term strategy to position South Afr

35、ica at the forefront of advanced vehicle and vehicle component manufacturing,complemented by a consumption leg.The Green Paper highlighted that the NEV challenge in South Africa was two dimensional,encompassing both demand and supply side considerations,and that it is an inevitable transition for th

36、e South African automotive industry in the global race to transition from the internal combustion engine ICE era,into electro-mobility solutions and technologies.Driving a meaningful NEV transition in South Africa will require a careful balance between incentivising a sustained shift in domestic mar

37、ket demand to NEVs;establishing an appropriately aligned,renewable energy-based charging infrastructure;and supporting a shift in South African vehicle production,away from ICE vehicles to a mix of hybrid electric vehicles HEVs,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles PHEVs,and battery electric vehicles BEV

38、s.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 5 5 Balancing these factors is key to successfully transitioning the South African vehicle industry to an ultra-low carbon future,while simultaneously ensuring it remains a major contributor to the industrial developmen

39、t of the domestic economy,as per the objectives of the SAAM,which runs until 2035.While existing policies around the world suggest healthy growth of NEVs,in South Africa,numerous challenges hamper the country from progressing in the NEV market.These include supportive regulatory frameworks,additiona

40、l incentives to manufacture NEVs and NEV components as well as to address the costs of NEVs,and insufficient public charging stations across the country.What is imperative for the domestic automotive industrys transition to NEVs is urgency and clarity with regards to a supportive regulatory framewor

41、k in the form of incentives to address the price differential between NEVs and ICE vehicles,additional incentives to manufacture NEVs and NEV components,as well as the roll out of public charging stations across the country.How the South African government supports the industry and its complex value

42、 chain to make this transition is replete with challenges,the most notable of which is the major cost associated with transitioning to the consumption and production of more expensive vehicles-at least for a period,and until battery technologies advance to levels that secure their price parity with

43、equivalent ICE products.To support the transition of the South African automotive industry to an NEV dominated market,while continuing to develop the local industry in alignment with the objectives of the SAAM,the automotive industry recommends the following interventions for Governments considerati

44、on:mitment to reduce CO2 emissions across the entire auto value chains as soon as it is practically possible.Although NEVs do not emit CO2 while in use,CO2 is emitted during the manufacture,distribution,recycling and disposal process.Carbon neutrality for motor vehicles cannot be achieved without CO

45、2 emissions reductions throughout their life cycle,based on overall life-cycle assessment;2.ensure that the manufacturing base in SA is protected,strengthened and retained,given that the country is at risk of losing more than 50%of its production volume from July 2025 instruction of Euro7 emission r

46、egulations in Europe to 2035 banning of ICE drivetrains in almost all the European countries;3.introduction of NEV purchasing subsidies based on Governments ability to support the suite of policy options for the purchase of HEV,PHEV,and BEVs;4.alignment on NEV import tariffs from the EU and the UK f

47、rom 25%to 18%under the SADC EU EPA and SACUM EU EPA along with more flexible Rules of Origin for exports to the EU and the UK;5.provision of a 50%CKD rebate on the import of specified NEV components for a limited period;and 6.an increase in the AIS for NEV investment from 30%for OEMs and 35%for comp

48、onent suppliers to 50%and expand the AIS offering for NEV investment to lower tier suppliers,including suppliers that conduct raw material beneficiation.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 6 6 7.Increased levels of PI and VALA for a transitionary period to

49、get NEV investment into SA and support export competitiveness while the economies of scale are low.In addition to the above,the industry is prepared to match the purchasing subsidy from government for the different NEV categories in order to narrow the price differential between NEVs and ICE vehicle

50、s further to stimulate an accelerated off-take of NEVs in the country.It is also imperative that the Rules of Origin for CBU exports to the UK/EU,which currently stand at 60%,be reduced via the SADC-EU EPA review to accommodate the lack of a real localisation opportunity for the battery in the fores

51、eeable future in South Africa and the EU/UK.Failing to do so would defeat of the NEV transition in South Africa as without the NEV battery sourcing in South Africa or the EU/UK,the domestic automotive industry will not be able to export passenger cars and light commercial vehicles duty-free to the E

52、U/UK.The long term NEV policy in the country should be linked to the timeframe of the SAAM 2035 and the target of 60%of the new vehicle market to comprise NEV sales by 2035 should be subject to appropriate government support levels.The aim of the White Paper is to provide a comprehensive and long-te

53、rm automotive industry transformation plan on NEVs for South Africa in line with the SAAM 2035 timeline.The focus of the White Paper is on passenger cars and light commercial vehicles eligible under the Automotive Production Development Programme Phase 2 APDP2.In view of the significant differences

54、between the transitional requirements for light vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles,a NEV Road Map for trucks,buses will be developed separately.No single government policy or industry commitment will achieve the ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.We must work collaboratively,at all leve

55、ls of government and across all industries,to identify the suite of approaches necessary to establish sustainable pathways to carbon neutrality across sectors that recognise and take into account the economic,geographic and cultural realities of South Africa.The automotive industry remains committed

56、 to supporting carbon neutrality as argued in this paper.We believe electrification will play a leading role in this transition but it is not the only and/or the most appropriate technology for our country for immediate implementation.Other technologies or fuels are also suitable and South Africa sh

57、ould proceed towards the achievement of carbon neutrality by implementing practical and sustainable technological and policy measures tailored to our specific circumstances.Finally,essential to achieving automotive carbon neutrality are comprehensive national industrial and energy policies that effe

58、ctively promote the competitiveness of the automobile industry.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 7 7 2.THE PATH TO NEW ENERGY VEHICLES NEVs In many of the largest automotive markets,widespread consumer and commercial adoption of NEVs is important for achi

59、eving goals of long-term carbon neutrality from the transportation sector.To that end,motor vehicle manufacturers are working toward greenhouse gas reductions by increasing the number of NEVs and alternative fuel vehicles on the road,and with ongoing efficiency improvements for ICE vehicles.As a res

60、ult,the world is on the cusp of achieving a remarkable milestone of 20 million NEVs on the road,up from just one million in 2016.To further illustrate the pace of this transition,sales of NEVs including fully electric and plug-in hybrids doubled in 2021 to a new record of 6.6 million.Despite global

61、supply chain challenges,sales kept rising into 2022,with 2 million NEVs sold worldwide in the first quarter,up by three-quarters from the same period a year earlier.The number of NEVs on the worlds roads by the end of 2021 was about 16.5 million,triple the amount in 2018.Notwithstanding this tremend

62、ous progress and building momentum,NEVs still represent only a fraction of the more than 1.4 billion vehicles on the road worldwide.Likewise,the increasing pace of NEV sales are not the same in every country around the world.Source:Govind BHUTADA,“Visualizing 10 Years of Global EV Sales by Country,”

63、2022-08-08 In order to maximise NEV acceptance and adoption,policymakers and industry investments must focus on improving vehicle affordability,increasing consumer awareness and confidence,developing 3,519,054695,657631,152326,990322,043153,699141,615138,771119,40297,282469,930313,129ChinaGermanyU.S

64、.UKFranceNorwayItalySwedenSouth KoreaNetherlandsRest of EuropeRest of the WorldEV SALES BY COUNTRY,2021EV SALES BY COUNTRY,20210102030405060708090100NorwayIcelandSwedenDenmarkFinlandNetherlandsGermanySwitzerlandPortugalUnitedFranceBelgiumChinaItalySpainGreeceCanadaKoreaOther EuropeUSANew ZealandAust

65、raliaPolandJapanMexicoBrazilIndiaChileSouth AfricaMarketShare(percent)EV MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY,2021EV MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY,2021MarketShareWorldAverage South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 8 8 vital charging and refuelling infrastructure,and building rel

66、iable and resilient supply chains to support the manufacture of NEVs.Electrical charging and hydrogen fuelling infrastructure:All stakeholders must work together on public policy efforts,such as incentives,grants,rebates and other mechanisms,along with private investment,to spur significant electric

67、 charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure development to support three key areas:homes especially multi-unit dwellings and areas with higher residential densities,workplaces and highway and other public locations,with an emphasis on those lacking public transport.Existing research shows charg

68、ing needs will vary substantially by country and region,housing stock,average distance travelled,population density and NEV mix.For example,home charging is currently the most important charging option in most countries and will remain a critical option where demographics support home charging.Other

69、 countries and regions,however,may have lower potential for home charging,increasing the importance of public and workplace charging.South Africa will have different demands for DC fast charging mainly due to its energy challenges,socio-economic demographics and other local-specific factors.We know

70、that there is no set playbook for optimising charging infrastructure and South Africa will make its choices based on the countrys national interests and needs.Regardless,achieving the right charging infrastructure mix will require a massive and coordinated investment between the public and private s

71、ectors.0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000ChinaUnitedStatesSouthKoreaNetherlandsFranceGermanyUnitedKingdomJapanItalyNorwayCanadaSwedenSpainNUMBEROFPUBLICLYAVAILABLEELECTRICVEHICLECHARGERS(EVSE)IN2021,BYMAJORCOUNTRYANDTYPESlowCharging(22KilowattsofPower)South Africas New Energy V

72、ehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 9 9 Consumer Acceptance and Adoption:While South Africa may elect a gradual phased in approach after prioritising a manufacturing led strategy to NEV evolution,government incentives will undoubtedly be essential to stimulate demand and encourage c

73、onsumers to replace their ICE vehicles with NEV models.Due to higher levels of inequality in our society,high unemployment rate and poverty,the complete replacement of the existing fleets of vehicles in South Africa will take decades,if not longer a minimum of 15 to 20 years if not more.In order to

74、accelerate this process-especially as new,more expensive technologies scale and mature-incentives will be necessary in order to at least partly offset the additional cost to the consumer.Otherwise,if consumers are forced to keep their older vehicles longer than they should,the net effect of NEV intr

75、oduction will be negative.While the auto sector has made significant progress driving down battery and fuel cell costs,further research and development R&D investments will be needed to realise cost,utility,and convenience parity between NEVs and their internal combustion counterparts.NEVs currently

76、 cost significantly more to produce than equivalent gasoline cars or trucks.This divide grows when considering convenience and utility parity,which requires larger batteries to support longer NEV ranges commensurate with consumer expectations and needs.R&D:To increase NEV market share,the focus shou

77、ld not be simply on strengthening fuel-efficiency and other regulations.These must be complemented by additional government policies that facilitate the transition to a NEV future,including support for critical R&D.Globally,automakers have already committed$255 billion to NEV R&D activities in 2023.

78、In order to increase NEV penetration and provide NEV owners the same cost benefits as those provided by ICE,governments must continue to work proactively with industry to identify and support critical R&D opportunities to enhance our localisation ambitions and secure stable access to critical compon

79、ents and supply chains for local component manufacturing.$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160$180$200GloballyoperatingOEMsChineseOEMsGloballyoperatingsuppliersChinesesuppliersEVnicheOEMsBillions(US$)ELECTRICVEHICLES:AUTOINDUSTRYR&DFUNDINGBYINVESTORTYPE2023(BILLIONS)South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transit

80、ional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1010 Mineral Extraction and Supply Chain:Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Africa in particular is endowed with enormous and rich mineral resources we need in the production of Lithium Battery Technology.If we want to Make South Africa Attractive to global and lo

81、cal battery assemblers,we need to include a beneficiation strategy in our mix so that we do not just extract but we develop our own mega factories that would supply products to the world.Our region is ready and we have the following mineral resources around us:Nickel|SA the 9th largest global produc

82、er and some in Zimbabwe;Manganese|SA 70%of the worlds manganese reserves,some in DRC and Gabon;Cobalt|DRC 60%of world supply,85%is exported to China,and some from Zambia;Lithium|Zimbabwe 5th largest producing country,some in SA,and in Namibia;Graphite|Mozambique 20-40%:global reserves,some in Tanzan

83、ia,Zimbabwe,Madagascar;Copper|SA,the DRC,Namibia,Zambia,and Zimbabwe.Realising wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles will require a substantial increase in the identification and responsible extraction of resources critical to the battery supply chain,as well as battery end-of-life policies that

84、minimise environmental harm and support robust and resilient supply chains for battery materials.Demand for NEV batteries will increase from what we have today to over 9,300GWh by 2030.This will apply tremendous pressure on existing supply chains for critical minerals,components and materials.For ex

85、ample,some estimates suggest that global demand for lithium from battery factories could hit 3 million tonnes by 2030,requiring a massive increase over the 82,000 tonnes produced in 2020.Benchmark Minerals Intelligence estimates that over 300 new mines for graphite,lithium,nickel and cobalt will nee

86、d to be built over the next decade to meet NEV and energy storage battery demands.As a result of surging demand and tight supply chains,prices of raw materials such as cobalt,lithium and nickel will continue to surge.In May 2022,lithium prices were over seven times higher than at the start of 2021.G

87、eographical Distribution of the Global NEV Battery Supply Chain South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1111 Fuel Cell:In addition to battery and plug-in electric vehicles,hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles represent an important technology on the path to dec

88、arbonising road transportation.This is particularly important for heavy duty vehicles,where battery technology may present challenges related to weight,cost,charging and range.For fuel cell electric vehicles FCEVs hydrogen should be priced at affordable levels,and hydrogen fuels made more convenient

89、ly available to users.Accordingly,government support measures are needed in the areas of fuel cell and hydrogen storage R&D,and hydrogen production and station infrastructure development.In South Korea for example,government has committed substantial resources to both hydrogen energy projects,as wel

90、l as the establishment of a public-private hydrogen-powered FCEV market.1 This type of public and private sector collaboration and investment reflects the type of national strategy and technology flexibility necessary to achieve broader decarbonisation goals.Grid Reliability/Decarbonising:South Afri

91、ca has major energy supply and energy security challenges and realising the full potential of NEVs and their charging infrastructure will require careful consideration and evaluation of upgrades to the electricity grid infrastructure,as well as the transition to clean and renewable sources of energy

92、.A critical factor in the wide-scale adoption of NEVs is ensuring the grid infrastructure is reliable,resilient,affordable and able to accommodate various charging needs not limited only to light-duty vehicles.We must work collaboratively to understand how widespread adoption of NEVs will increase d

93、emand on existing infrastructure and plan for the necessary investments required to maintain grid upgrades and reliability.Further,realising the benefits of electric and fuel cell vehicles makes decarbonising the electric grid increasingly important.In order to truly achieve the bold ambition of car

94、bon neutrality,especially decarbonisation of road transport,the power used to charge electric vehicles will need to come from clean and renewable sources-while also maintaining the reliability necessary to meet demand.1 https:/ South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White

95、 Paper 1212 3.GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENTS 3.1.3.1.T The Paris Agreementhe Paris Agreement Environmental protection and climate change are at the forefront of many discussions globally.All of the worlds largest economies have committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2050,or in Chinas case by 206

96、0.The Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris,on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016.This Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change,which outlines ambitious goals of limiting global warming to below 2 C above pre-industrial era

97、 levels,while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C by reducing carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.To achieve this long-term temperature goal,countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century.The Paris Ag

98、reement is a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because,for the first time,a binding agreement brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.Implementation of the Paris Agreement requires economic and social t

99、ransformation,based on the best available science.The Paris Agreement works on a 5-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action carried out by countries.Although climate change action needs to be massively increased to achieve the goals of this Agreement,the years since its entry into force h

100、ave already sparked low-carbon solutions and new markets.More and more countries,regions,cities and companies are establishing carbon neutrality targets.Zero-carbon solutions are becoming competitive across economic sectors representing 25%of emissions.This trend is most noticeable in the power and

101、transport sectors and has created many new business opportunities for early movers.In 2021,global emissions were at their highest level ever.The nationally determined contributions submitted in 2021 would result in an increase in global emissions of 14%by 2030.To be on a credible pathway to limit gl

102、obal average temperature rise to 1.5C,global emissions need to decline by 45%below 2010 levels by 2030.The battle to keep the 1.5C goal of the Paris Agreement alive and prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis will be won or lost this decade.With each passing day of inaction,the pulse of the

103、1.5C goal gets weaker and weaker.The second half of 2021 in particular saw the start of the biggest energy crisis in modern history,exacerbated by Russias invasion of Ukraine towards the end of February 2022,and the unprecedented global commodity shock.Like the oil crises of the 1970s,which saw huge

104、 gains in fuel efficiency and a boom in nuclear power,the world may see a jump in energy policies that speed the transition to cleaner energy.In the meantime,security of oil and gas supplies will continue to pose a challenge for Europe,and also for other regions.Although many more governments commit

105、ted to net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions in 2021,the reality is that,in response to the energy crisis,most countries have gone back to seeking out new sources of fossil fuels and to burning even more coal,oil and natural gas.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Pa

106、per 1313 3.2.3.2.A A s snailnail-paced paced mmomentumomentum forfor a Global Commitmenta Global Commitment Despite many new commitments to the net zero target,political momentum has not translated into action.In the lead-up to the United Nations UN COP 26 in November 2021,a record 135 countries ple

107、dged to achieve net zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050.However,only 84 of these countries had economy-wide targets for renewable energy,and only 36 had targets for 100%renewables.Nonetheless,for the first time in the history of UN climate summits,the COP26 declaration mentioned the need to reduce

108、 coal use,but it failed to call for targeted reductions in either coal or fossil fuels.However,meeting net-zero pledges will require significant efforts.Despite important green recovery measures in many countries,the strong economic rebound in 2021 contributed to 4%rise in final energy consumption,o

109、ffsetting the growth of renewables.Most of the increase in global energy use in 2021 was met by fossil fuels,resulting in the largest surge in carbon dioxide emissions in history,up more than two-billion tonnes worldwide.Further,2021 marked the end of the era of cheap fossil fuels,with the largest s

110、pike in energy prices since the 1973 oil crisis.By the end of the year,gas prices reached around ten times the 2020 levels in Europe and Asia and tripled in the US,leading to a spike in wholesale electricity prices in major markets by the end of 2021.It should be reiterated that renewables are the m

111、ost affordable and best solution to tackle energy price fluctuations.3.3.3.3.Every contribution Every contribution to reduce emissions countsto reduce emissions counts South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,or UNFCCC,and to the Paris Agreement.As an

112、energy and emissions intensive middle-income developing country,South Africa recognises the need for it to contribute its fair share to the global effort to move towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,considering the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the need for recogni

113、tion of its capabilities and national circumstances.South Africa,the worlds 13th-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases,has committed to reduce annual GHG emissions by 28%by 2030 and has set a target for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 as climate risks build.Net zero targets are the most recent attem

114、pt to simplify the climate crisis in order to make it manageable.The Paris Agreement called on countries to balance greenhouse gas sources,such as cars and factories,with ways of removing emissions from the atmosphere,such as forests and carbon capture technology,in the second half of this century.I

115、n recent months,leaders from the US and the UK and the UN Secretary-General have suggested that a net zero emission target consistent with reaching global net zero carbon by 2050 is an important yardstick by which climate pledges by major economies are to be judged.Yet how much each country has to d

116、o depends on how fast other countries reach net zero.The agreement at Paris provides some guidance.It recognises that emissions will take longer to peak in developing countries because addressing poverty is an overriding challenge.For the whole world to reach carbon neutrality in 2050,developed coun

117、tries have to reach net zero carbon emissions earlier.The Paris Agreement also requires that developing countries receive support-in the form of money or green technology-to speed up their transition.Net zero targets are a powerful way to signal common cause between nations.The Paris Agreement broke

118、 a long-standing political deadlock by allowing each country to develop its own South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1414 nationally determined contribution to cutting global emissions.This allows national governments to tailor climate policy in order to max

119、imise its appeal to people at home.In South Africa,there is crippling inequality and unemployment stood at 35,3%in 2021.Emissions cuts can only proceed if jobs are created during a transition from a coal-based economy to a low emission one,particularly for young people.3.4.3.4.Transport as a signifi

120、cant emitterTransport as a significant emitter Today,the transport sector in most countries is dependent on fossil fuels.Transportation is a major contributor to CO emissions globally,accounting for about 24%of total emissions come from this important sector.Of this figure,more than 75%is from road

121、transportation in the form of cars,trucks and motorbikes.Passenger cars account for 60%of road transportation emissions globally.These polluting emissions arise from the state of vehicle technology,the quality of fuels used,and the maintenance levels of the vehicle parc.The first step in reducing th

122、ese emissions is to eliminate the lead in petrol and to reduce the fuel sulphur content.Reducing emissions from motor vehicles require the introduction of cleaner fuels coupled with the advanced vehicle technology which can use these fuels.However,for environmental sustainability as well as to enhan

123、ce industrial policy,developing a NEV market is crucial to decarbonise transport and to transform the sector through the application of emerging technologies.Countries are therefore increasingly implementing policy measures and strategies to help reduce transport-related carbon emissions,improve air

124、 quality and increase the share of renewable energy sources.Road transport plays an essential role in South Africas national supply chain.The road transport network is the blood system of the domestic economy,but it does face challenges.Road networks carry some 80%of South Africas goods,ingoing and

125、outgoing,and thus anything that disrupts road logistics is bad not only for the individual logistics companies but the economy.The Department of Transport DoT has implemented a Green Transport Strategy GTS-DoT to lower GHG emissions and develop policy and regulations.Important focus areas for the de

126、partment include promoting sustainable green mobility and more efficient technologies,transport systems integration and the development of infrastructure for e-mobility.The GTS short-term strategy aims to convert 5%of the public and national sector fleet to green cleaner alternative fuel vehicles,in

127、cluding the use of compressed natural gas CNG,biogas and biofuels,and renewable energy to provide electricity for transport in the next five to seven years.The government notes that the strategy and implementation plans will depend on financial support and resources,infrastructure investment,coheren

128、t policy framework and regulatory environment alignment.The DoT,DTIC and National Treasury are working on implementation plans,supporting relevant research work such as the automotive industrys NEV roadmap and assessing the policy implications of the proposed GTS plans.South Africas New Energy Vehic

129、le Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1515 NEVs are increasingly being deployed to solve challenges of air pollution,rising fuel prices and global warming,but also to assist electricity grids as distributed energy sources,making use of large battery packs for more than just mobility.Targe

130、ts set for each industry,in particular transportation,will require major shifts in production and entire value chains having to convert from ICE to hybrid or battery electric vehicles BEVs.Europe is leading the way in terms of regulation.Electric mobility e-mobility,paired with renewable energy gene

131、ration,stands to play a major role in significantly lowering global CO emissions in the transportation sector.3.5.3.5.Working towWorking towards eards environmentally sustainable policiesnvironmentally sustainable policies Especially with the ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2015,there has bee

132、n a concerted policy push for countries to promote e-mobility.Policymakers in various countries have since introduced new environmental standards and regulations that seek to compel industries to reduce their carbon emissions output and act sustainably.This has led to a technology paradigm shift,as

133、industries shift to more sustainable energy solutions and clean technologies.Many countries have drafted goals,strategies,and guidelines to address environmental sustainability,particularly within the transport sector which is playing a critical role to reduce carbon emissions and the transition to

134、e-mobility.E-mobility can help countries achieve sustainable development objectives and decarbonisation goals.This will not only help South Africa to achieve its global targets but will have a positive impact on the environment and the quality of life due to reduced pollution and noise.The uptake of

135、 NEVs is,however,comparably slow to date.The high purchase price of NEVs and the availability of charging infrastructure remain major barriers to the spread of NEVs.To grow the market,however,generally a mix of strong and enabling policy measures and incentives addressing the cost,charging infrastru

136、cture,and information gap could help to increase the share of NEVs,as leading markets show.In the interim,the introduction of Euro V equivalent fuels in South Africa is also important from an environmental health and air quality improvement perspective.Once the fuels become generally available,there

137、 will be a significant reduction in harmful vehicle emissions in South Africa in respect of the entire vehicle population.It will also enable vehicle manufacturers to market high technology,highly fuel efficient and low emission new vehicles in South Africa.The automotive industry will continue to p

138、ress government and oil companies for the earliest possible introduction of the cleaner fuels in South Africa.CO based vehicle taxation was introduced in South Africa in 2010 to encourage vehicle manufacturers to introduce more fuel-efficient vehicles.While Industry objected at the time citing restr

139、ictions in access to the latest vehicle technology specifically from Europe,assurances were given that this matter was recognised and would be addressed.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1616 In the 2013/2014 budget,the then Minister of Finance announced

140、an allocation of R40 billion for the upgrading of SA oil refineries to produce Euro V fuels in South Africa by 2017.The Department of Energy subsequently decided to re-evaluate the Clean Fuels initiative and there has been little progress since then.Currently,South Africa is behind the rest of the w

141、orld in terms of fuel standards and quality.The introduction of Clean Fuels in South Africa is essential from an environmental/urban air quality and human health perspective.It is also essential to enable OEMs to supply the market with high technology,highly fuel efficient and low emission new motor

142、 vehicles with the following important benefits:Progressive reduction in CO emissions by motor vehicles;Progressive reduction in emissions of hazardous gasses harmful to human health and the environment due to high levels of benzene and sulphur in current fuel;Enable greater efficiencies in vehicle

143、manufacturing plants due to reduced complexities uniform technologies built into domestic and export vehicles;Improved efficiencies for domestic vehicle manufacturers because re-engineering of vehicles to comply with lower quality fuel will no longer be required to accommodate outdated vehicle techn

144、ology due to inferior fuel quality standards;and Gradual reduction in aggregate fuel/oil imports with associated benefits for the countrys balance of payments.Importantly,Clean Fuels would enable improved efficiencies and would avoid the need to adapt vehicles for the lower fuel quality Euro II avai

145、lable in South Africa.Inefficiencies arise due to adjustments needed to engine management systems,wiring harasses,drive trains,computerised management systems and exhaust systems.Moreover,having to produce export vehicles for high technology markets as well as vehicles for low technology markets is

146、inefficient and negatively impacts on the industrys global competitiveness.While steady progress has been made regarding the average new vehicle CO emissions reduction,it is now noticeable that a plateau has been reached in terms of average vehicle fuel economy as measured in terms of CO emissions.H

147、owever,the automotive industry believes that any further progress is now unlikely without the widespread introduction of the latest engine technology which in turn requires new enabling fuels.It is also illogical that vehicle manufacturers and importers should continue to be penalised for not introd

148、ucing latest engine technology vehicles when many such vehicles will not be able to operate on South African fuel,and those models that are introduced may require expensive reverse engineering to use older less efficient engines.Product restrictions are being applied to domestic companies by their f

149、oreign principals particularly due to the lack of availability of clean fuels low sulphur petrol.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1717 CO emissions tax on average adds about 2%to 3%to the price of the vehicle and is directly payable by the manufacturer t

150、o the South African Revenue Service.This tax is recovered through the selling price to dealers and consumers.Effective 1st September 2010,CO emissions taxation was implemented in respect of new motor cars,including SUVs,based on an emissions threshold of 120g/km and a tax of R75 g/km above the thres

151、hold as adjusted during the annual Budget on a regular basis.In the case of higher fuel consumption vehicles,the tax and possibly therefore the price effect could be as high as 6%.Value Added Tax is payable on the emissions levy.Effective 6 April 2022,the CO emissions tax on passenger cars at presen

152、t is R132 g/km on CO emissions 95g/km.On double cab light commercial vehicles,the CO emissions tax at present is R176 g/km on CO emissions 175g/km.The following table reveals the weighted average CO emissions on passenger cars,light commercial vehicles and double cabs from 2011 to 2021.Weighted aver

153、age C02 emissions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Passenger Passenger V Vehiclesehicles 166166 161161 156156 153153 149149 147147 147147 145145 146146 147147 146146 A-Entry 146 142 141 140 137 135 133 129 128 128 126 AB-sub-Small 145 142 135 133 130 127 127 122 124 124 125 B-S

154、mall 157 153 146 144 142 140 142 144 145 143 145 C-Medium 170 154 145 139 135 130 130 134 140 143 142 D-Large 171 163 161 155 151 142 136 146 144 144 159 E-Luxury 226 210 196 186 194 181 186 180 201 205 204 F-MPV 200 194 188 183 177 171 166 167 167 160 165 G-SUV 225 218 210 203 195 188 187 185 182 1

155、87 185 SE-Sport and Exotics 214 195 204 205 186 216 218 225 226 229 236 X-Crossover 177 172 165 155 148 143 144 143 148 150 149 Light Commercial vehicles 217 212 213 214 213 207 207 205 205 205 205 LCV:Double Cabs 232 231 229 226 225 212 212 211 211 210 209 Source:naamsanaamsa/Lightstone Auto A conc

156、ern going forward is that,if the cleaner fuels are not being produced and sold in South Africa,it will restrict newer technology and lower-emission vehicles from coming into the country and being manufactured here.The problem is that to produce these fuels as determined by Clean Fuels 2 CF2,domestic

157、 refineries need to make major investments.The question remains how they can recover these investment costs.The oil industry has been in negotiation with Government on how some type of cost recovery would work,but no finality has been reached.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The

158、 Route To White Paper 1818 The industry welcomed the recent announcement of the next step in governments clean fuels programme,for Petroleum Products Specification and Standards for Implementation gazette Government Notice R784,published on August 31st,2021,for the introduction of the next phase of

159、Clean Fuels Program CF2 in SA,effective by September 2023.The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy DMRE in 2021 gazetted the introduction of the next phase of the Clean Fuels Programme-CF2-in South Africa.The introduction of low-sulphur petrol and diesel sub-10 ppm and other revised fuel param

160、eters nationally is progressive,and in line with the climate change considerations,and will enable vehicle manufacturers to market the latest technology fuel-efficient and low-emission new-motor vehicles in South Africa.Once the fuel regulations are implemented,a significant reduction in vehicle emi

161、ssions in respect of the entire vehicle population can be expected.The new measures to improve enforcement relating to mandatory record-keeping of fuel purchases by retailers are also essential for combating the increasing import and sale of grossly sub-specification fuels currently seen in the Sout

162、h African market.Furthermore,the progressive move to cleaner fuels supports the South African government commitment to the COP26 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 1919 4.SOUTH AFRICAS JUST TRANSITION G

163、lobal efforts to mitigate climate change are ramping up,with rising numbers of countries,companies and financiers taking actions to tackle climate change.At the same time,climate changes such as temperatures and weather changes are increasing,with dramatic impacts on populations.These are having mat

164、erial impacts on the economy and society.In the short term,dealing with this transition has materialised primarily in a focus on the decarbonisation of the energy systems.In the medium to long term,this will extend to virtually all sectors and segments of society.In this context,the just transition

165、agenda has taken centre stage.It aims to lower the risks faced by the most affected and vulnerable stakeholders such as working people,small businesses,and low-income communities,while providing an opportunity to maximise the development of new opportunities and redress historical injustices.The phr

166、ase,net zero has become synonymous with global sustainability objectives and the movement to curb climate change.As the world gears up to present a united front against impeding realities like environmental degradation and global warming,many have opinions on the role that the public and private sec

167、tors must play in driving positive change.A just transition seeks to ensure that the substantial benefits of a green economy transition are shared widely,while also supporting those who stand to lose economically-be they countries,regions,industries,communities,workers,or consumers.A rapid increase

168、in the speed and scale of actions required to reduce the risks of climate change will create new economic opportunities.Whilst a just transition is based on environmental considerations,it is also shaped by other structural changes affecting labour markets,such as globalisation,labour-saving technol

169、ogies,and the shift to services.South Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and will need significant international support to build resilience,transition its economy and to decarbonise.Currently,coal contributes around 81%of South Africas energy generation.South Africas energ

170、y system is currently at a critical crossroads.The countrys inability to ensure reliable electricity supply to the economy has been a key binding constraint to structural transformation.South Africas electricity sector structure is from a bygone era characterised by the pursuit of ever larger econom

171、ies of scale in coal-fired power generation.As a developing country facing extreme poverty,inequality and unemployment,exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic,South Africa has an opportunity to align decarbonisation plans with economic recovery efforts to attract the foreign investment and finance the

172、country needs to fund and manage a Just Transition.A Just Transition for South Africa must ensure that the transition to a low carbon economy is conducted in a way that serves to address present and historical inequality,creates jobs,relieves poverty,restores its natural systems to build resilience,

173、and,critically,leaves no one behind.What is needed is a well-planned energy transition to attain the long-term goal of an economy based on renewable and other forms of low-carbon energy.Despite the negative impact of coal on the environment,this energy mineral,however,remains a strategic national re

174、source for the country and cannot simply be discarded.The pace and timing of the transition should therefore not be based on environmental concerns only but must also consider the socio-economic implications for the country.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Pap

175、er 2020 Building green economy is the only viable path to a resource-efficient,low-carbon and pro-employment future for South Africa,and its commitment to the green economy as the anchor for its strategy is one of the keyways to contribute to the realisation of this goal and the economys sustainabil

176、ity and effectiveness.Tackling climate change has far-reaching implications for socio-economic development,production,and consumption patterns.South Africas greenhouse-gas emissions-the 13th highest in the world-contributes about 5%to global greenhouse-gas emissions.SA has an energy system heavily d

177、ependent on coal.The country also struggles to maintain a stable energy supply and experiences power cuts and frequent load-shedding.An accelerated electricity sector transition is the key to South Africas sustained economic recovery.Specifically,several coal-fired power stations which are at the en

178、d of their lives can now be replaced by an energy mix including large-scale investment in renewable energy sources,the costs for which continue to fall.South Africas long-term just transition process includes to reduce the carbon intensity of South Africas electricity system and reliability on coal,

179、while developing new sectors such as green hydrogen and electric vehicles.South Africa has adopted a just transition framework and set a path for the low-carbon transition as outlined in the National Development Plan and the Integrated Resource Plan IRP.The IRP 2019 outlines South Africas stepping s

180、tones to reduce coals contribution to the energy mix to below 60%,in favour of renewables like wind,and photovoltaic PV technologies,which would account for 25%of our energy mix by 2030.The areas where renewed emphasis on State capacity is required include the effective and timely implementation of

181、the countrys IRP-the countrys key electricity investment planning instrument,which should be incrementally and regularly recalibrated and updated,given changing technology costs,and changing supply and demand patterns.Relatedly,the procurement process flowing from the IRP should continue to be execu

182、ted with a high degree of autonomy by the Independent Power Producers Office.A modernised and updated electricity regulatory framework for the purpose of guiding the energy transition will need to be developed and run under the auspices of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa.South Africas

183、just energy transition also hinges on integrated policy approach.By integrating the expansion in renewable energy generation capacity with active industrial policy measures,significant potential exists for accelerating growth,investment,and employment opportunities.It would be beneficial if governme

184、nt could achieve policy alignment and complementarity across four major policy streams:energy,fiscal,industrial,and environmental.In the longer-run,the fact that South Africa has world-class solar and wind potential means that the shift towards increased solar photovoltaic and wind power has the pot

185、ential to reduce the rate of electricity price increases and,over time,restore international competitiveness for South Africas energy-intensive economy.This would confer a fundamental advantage to the South African economy in exporting low-carbon,electricity-intensive,hydrogen-rich products-includin

186、g“green”products.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2121 At present coal still dominates the South African energy mix,providing 81,4%of the total system load.However,due to the energy crisis in the country relating to breakdowns and lack of maintenance ove

187、r many years resulting in electricity demand exceeding supply,persistent load shedding continues to harm the economy.Load shedding at present is causing lost economic output of about R700 million per stage per day while it is estimated to have contributed to more than one-million job opportunities l

188、ost.The most obvious solution to the problem would be to utilise more renewable energy sources which would assist South Africas climate change commitments and just transition to a green economy.The contribution of renewable energy technologies increased in 2021 to a total of 5,7 GW installed capacit

189、y and provided 6,6%of the total energy mix.Electricity generated from renewables is not subject to the same pricing volatility as its fossil fuel-based counterparts.It is not linked to international commodity prices,nor the currency it is quoted in.Electricity generated from renewable sources offers

190、 pricing predictability and affordability.In the order of 47%of South Africas coal power capacity is scheduled to shut down by 2030.The decommissioning of coal plants reaching their end-of-life cycle will leave a 22GW gap.To ensure security of supply and system flexibility while exploring the decarb

191、onisation of the power sector,the country is weighing up resources and technologies to make the energy transition a reality.South Africa is seeking to reduce dependence on its state-owned utility,Eskom,for power supply.The troubled utility,which is currently unable to meet the countrys power demand

192、due to financial and operational issues,recently began considering renewables for its plant portfolio.A landmark regulatory change was announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa in August 2021,where Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act was amended to extend the limit over which a private power p

193、roject must apply for a Generation License,from 1MW to 100MW.The additional energy supply would help reduce the burden on power utility Eskom.Further far-reaching interventions announced in July 2022 by the President included a doubling in the allocation for the next renewables procurement round,the

194、 scrapping of the 100MW license-exemption threshold for distributed generator and a proposal of a feed-in tariff for self-generating households and businesses-as part of a much-anticipated action plan for ending load-shedding.The President also announced that special legislation would be placed befo

195、re Parliament to address remaining legal and regulatory obstacles to the urgent introduction of new generation capacity.In the meantime,certain regulatory requirements,where possible to do so within existing legislation,would be waived or streamlined such as cutting red tape that has made it difficu

196、lt for Eskom to buy maintenance spares and equipment within the required period to effect repairs.A single point of entry for all energy project applications,to ensure coordination of approval processes across government,would also be established.The measures announced together with the steps alread

197、y taken would aim to hasten the end of load shedding and put the country on a clear path towards reliable,affordable,and sustainable energy supply.The move to remove limits to private sector electricity generation would help unlock investments,create jobs during the construction and help lower the c

198、ost of electricity in the long term.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2222 Finance is essential to implement effective climate action.A just transition requires transition finance as a component of finance for climate action-to protect the adequacy of ene

199、rgy supply and to mitigate negative economic,employment and social impacts during transition-supporting both an accelerated phasing-out of coal and development that sustains livelihoods in affected regions.South Africa needs to spend about$250 billion over the next three decades closing down its coa

200、l-fired power plants and replacing them with green energy.The key challenge is catalysing financing and investment.These are essential enablers for a socially inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy and a climate-resilient future on an economy-wide scale.The role of the private sector was empha

201、sised at COP26,which stated that about 70%of the total funding requirement for a global climate change response would come from private enterprise.At Glasgow,all countries agreed to revise and strengthen their nationally determined contributions.The G20 nations account for 80%of global emissions.On

202、finance,the$100 billion commitment made over a decade ago remains unmet,and the trillions needed to ensure a low-carbon,climate-resilient future are yet to be mobilised.Developing countries continue to face extraordinary barriers to accessing the finance they need,particularly to protect themselves.

203、In this regard concrete progress towards reforming rules around eligibility and burdensome access criteria that many developing countries face is required.The establishment of a Presidential Climate Commission PCC emanates from the Presidential Jobs Summit held in October 2018 when social partners a

204、greed that a statutory body be formed to coordinate and oversee the just transition towards a low-carbon,inclusive,climate change resilient economy and society.The PCC is an independent,statutory,multi-stakeholder body established by President Cyril Ramaphosa.Its purpose is to oversee and facilitate

205、 a just and equitable transition towards a low-emissions and climate-resilient economy.In fulfilling this role,our focus is to:Create a social partnership around a just transition;Define a vision for a just transition,and means of achieving that vision,covering the necessary sectoral shifts,technolo

206、gical innovation,employment opportunities,and climate finance;Conduct independent analysis into climate change impacts on jobs,the economy,and policy;Monitor progress towards mitigation and adaptation goals,as well as the achievement of a just transition linked to broader development objectives;and

207、Engage with a wide range of stakeholders,including all spheres of government,business,labour,academia,communities,and civil society.One of the first tasks of the PCC was to develop a framework for a just transition.The just transition framework presents an opportunity to start dealing with practical

208、 issues relating to jobs,local economies,skills,social support,and governance.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2323 The just transition framework is a planning tool for achieving a just transition in South Africa,setting out the actions that the governme

209、nt and its social partners will take to achieve a just transition,and the outcomes to be realised in the short,medium,and long term.Ahead of the 2021 COP26 climate talks in Glasgow,Scotland,South Africa made a material update to its nationally determined contribution NDC target range for 2030,which

210、was improved to between 420-and 350-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent Mt CO-eq from an initial NDC pledge to lower its carbon emissions to between 614 Mt CO-eq and 398 Mt CO-eq by 2030.This more ambitious NDC created the basis for the International Partners Group IPG of France,Germany,the UK

211、,the US,and the European Union to sign a Political Declaration with South Africa that included an offer of$8,5 billion in climate finance to support the transition from coal to renewables while protecting workers and communities currently reliant on the coal value chain.The Partnership aims to accel

212、erate the decarbonisation of South Africas economy,with a focus on the electricity system,to help it achieve the ambitious goals set out in its updated Nationally Determined Contribution NDC emissions goals.It will mobilise an initial commitment of$8,5 billion for the first phase of financing,throug

213、h various mechanisms including grants,concessional loans and investments and risk sharing instruments,including to mobilise the private sector.The Partnership is expected to prevent up to 1 to 1,5 gigatonnes of emissions over the next 20 years and support South Africa to move away from coal and to a

214、ccelerate its transition to a low emission,climate resilient economy.Essentially,the debt guarantee would allow companies such as Eskom to borrow the money they need to close down coal-based power plants and enable the generation of renewable energy.Ideally,this money would have come from Eskoms res

215、erves or,failing that,a loan guaranteed by the government.But Eskom is already in debt to the tune of R416 billion and the South African government has already been pushed to the limit when it comes to guaranteeing Eskoms debt.In other words,Eskom needs money to transition to green technologies,but

216、its current options for getting that money are extremely limited.The debt guarantee is an effective way of circumventing this.Its a well-established and effective development financing mechanism.It is important to point out that while$8,5 billion on its own is undoubtedly helpful,it doesnt come anyw

217、here near meeting the amount South Africa needs to complete a meaningful energy transition.It is becoming increasingly clear that the transition to renewables is essential.The polluted air predominantly produced by coal stations kill an estimated 45,000 South Africans every year.That alone should ha

218、ve been enough to convince us to take a renewable-led strategy years ago.In addition,a reminder of the dangers that come with pumping large amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere needs not to look further than the April 2022 floods which ravaged Kwazulu-Natal.South Africas New Energy Vehic

219、le Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2424 Exceeding the 1.5C rise in temperature will result in more heatwaves,droughts,and floods,which affect not only human health,but also of fauna and flora.To mitigate the impact of global warming a major transition in the energy sector is required w

220、hich involve measures to significantly reduce fossil fuel use,widespread electrification,improved energy efficiency,and the use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen.South Africa is in a prime position to take advantage of its plentiful wind and solar resources,which provide an opportunity to decarb

221、onise its electricity sector,as well as other sectors of the economy.Superior sun,prime wind and land,favourable storage potential,know-how and metals put South Africa in pole position for green electricity and green mobility.If one looks at the energy storage options available today,one must be exc

222、ited about green hydrogen,which South Africa has the potential to have in abundance.The storage options are batteries,hydrogen,and pumped water storage.As pumping and storing water is as green as it gets,the contest turns to hydrogen versus batteries.Not all hydrogen generation is done with the help

223、 of platinum group metals PGMs.Hydrogen generation through alkaline electrolysers does not require PGMs,and nor does hydrogen from ammonia and direct combustion.Hydrogen is only green when renewables apply and renewables are inconsistent,which means storage is essential,and energy is very storable a

224、s hydrogen.Hydrogen-a clean,versatile energy carrier-is key to achieving a low-carbon future.South Africa is betting big on so-called green hydrogen to both grow and decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors of the economy.Hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant known element in the universe.It can serve

225、 as an alternative,emissions-free transport fuel when used to power fuel cells.Hydrogen is considered green when it is produced using renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen using electrolysers.Fuel cells work by combining hydrogen and oxygen in an electrochemical process that

226、generates electricity,with the only by-product being water.While this prototype offers a glimpse into a low-emissions future for mobility,having this technology widely adopted for passenger vehicle use in South Africa requires a level of investment in renewable energy generation,hydrogen production,

227、hydrogen storage,hydrogen transportation and hydrogen refuelling sites that just does not exist at present.Fuel cell electric vehicles FCEV are also only recently emerging from the shadows of their more well-known counterparts:electric vehicles EVs and variants thereof.While perhaps the most desirab

228、le option,especially as petrol prices skyrocket,South Africans have limited options in this regard.The lack of local supply is particularly striking in the entry-and mid-level market segments,with most available models competing in the high-end to niche segments.Moreover,the majority of South Africa

229、s energy generation is powered by the carbon-intensive process of burning coal-thereby all but eliminating the environmental benefit of the vehicles alternative drivetrain.Carbon emissions come from two major industries,of which energy production accounts for 34%of the emissions and manufacturing ac

230、counts for 24%.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2525 Not only is transitioning away from coal vital to South Africa reaching its own climate targets,but it may also prove crucial to the countrys ongoing ability to do business with its biggest trade partn

231、ers.This relates to the economic imperative to South Africas just transition.South Africa is the EUs largest trading partner on the African continent,but increasingly strict climate regulations in the economic bloc could make goods produced in South Africa with“dirty”electricity more expensive and l

232、ess attractive.Moving South Africa away from coal into renewable energy will reduce pollution and the negative externalities and impacts of carbon emissions on health and the environment.It is an excellent opportunity to recalibrate the Southern African economy to generate thousands and thousands of

233、 green jobs and power new green industries for a more competitive economy.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2626 5.ENVIRONMENTAL,SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE ESG METRICS The global economic transition to an equitable,net zero and sustainable future is both one o

234、f the most pressing challenges as well as one of the greatest responsibilities for society today.A worldwide push towards more sustainable business practices has come alongside more and more legislation broadening the scope of mandatory sustainability reporting.Currently,all major economies have in

235、place,in some form or another,legal regulatory mechanisms that make it mandatory for companies meeting specific broad criteria to report on sustainability.One of the most important tools that companies,and investors utilise to assess sustainability performance is an Environmental,Social and Governan

236、ce ESG score.An ESG score is typically a headline number that presents the providers opinion of a company or entitys performance against pre-defined ESG criteria.An ESG metrics can be effectively used to measure and define the impact an organisation has,the trust it engenders and the value it takes

237、beyond the shareholder and into the ecosystem.While the term ESG is often used in the context of investing,stakeholders include not just the investment community but also customers,suppliers,and employees.All of them are increasingly interested in how sustainable an organisations operations are.ESG

238、factors can be described as follows:Environmental criteria can be described as the impact an organisations operations have on the environment such as greenhouse gas emissions,waste management,energy usage,etc and risk management practices;Social refers to how an organisation manages its relationship

239、s with the people who work for and with it,as well as the local communities within which it operates;and Governance refers how a company is managed and led.Its compliance with regulations,internal controls,and checks to promote transparency and accountability by leadership,decision-making processes,

240、and protection of stakeholder rights.The ESG lens helps assess how an organisation manages the risks and opportunities created by changing conditions,such as shifts in environmental,economic,and social systems.ESG factors,though non-financial,have a material impact on the long-term risk and return o

241、f investments.ESG is incorporated into risk mitigation,compliance,and investment strategies.Companies that use ESG standards are more conscientious,less risky,and are more likely to succeed in the long run.ESG is a yardstick against which a companys commitment to sustained outcomes is measured,and h

242、ow investors respond to a company and its potential.Responsible investors evaluate companies using ESG criteria as a framework to screen investments or to assess risks in investment decision-making.ESG standards provide another level of due diligence,which is in the best interest of shareholders.The

243、 Capital Markets can be a powerful tool to create change.By restricting access to capital or making the terms under which its available less favourable,bad actors may be incentivised to improve performance across E,S,or G measures.Conversely,rewarding companies and their management teams that are pe

244、rforming well against ESG factors has an equally positive impact on encouraging continuous improvement.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2727 Many ESG investment vehicles have emerged,including green bonds,mutual funds,exchange-traded funds ETFs,and index

245、 funds,among others.These publicly traded instruments make it easier for investors to align their investment decisions more closely with their own beliefs and values around E,S,or G criteria.Reporting on ESG,however,is complex,demanding and detail driven.It expects companies to provide comprehensive

246、 data and insights into every aspect of each criterion across ESG and to prove each point meticulously.When implemented correctly,ESG projects not only improve stakeholder relations,but also yield considerable financial benefits almost immediately.The right ESG projects could also attract cheaper fo

247、rms of finance,making it easier to fund and allocate capital to such projects.Ultimately,these projects could enhance a companys ESG credentials,attracting investor interest and resulting in better valuations.OEMs globally are currently increasing their upstream investments and supply contracts to s

248、ecure enough battery metals,such as lithium,cobalt and battery-grade nickel,to drive forward their respective NEV policies and to meet the decarbonisation targets set by governments globally.These investments include partnerships with mines to secure short-and long-term metals contracts,as well as O

249、EMs investing into mining companies or strategic mining projects.Fitch Solutions believes nickel will remain incredibly important to NEV and battery manufacturers as nickel-based batteries remain the most popular chemistry among NEV manufacturers.Using data that Fitch Solutions had gathered on the b

250、attery chemistry used by NEV manufacturers and the batteries produced by giga-factories around the globe,it was estimated that lithium/nickel/manganese/cobalt NMC would make up between 70%to 78%of global NEV batteries by 2030,meaning that nickel-based batteries would remain the dominant battery chem

251、istry in the long term.Fitch Solutions believes lithium iron phosphate LFP cells will also increase in use,with an estimated 6%of total NEV batteries this year being LFP,a figure the firm expects will rise to 12%by 2030.While these investments will benefit OEMs by guaranteeing their supply of batter

252、y metals in a highly competitive market,the incorporation of mining into a companys portfolio also presents high ESG risks.This risk is particularly prevalent in lithium mining.In terms of lithium mining practices,extraction from salt flats is incredibly water-intensive,requiring two million litres

253、of water for every tonne of lithium extracted.This practice presents a strong risk of water shortages,particularly in dry regions,in addition to health concerns relating to the potential for local water supplies to become polluted by toxic chemicals and metals.Another ESG risk is the production of n

254、ickel owing to the environmental costs of the conversion of nickel pig iron into nickel matte.Smelting and refining are energy-intensive processes that also produce carbon emissions,while the mining of nickel pig iron could see large-scale deforestation to access the metals underground.The current p

255、eriod of high mining company revenues,combined with rapidly growing ESG considerations,is placing pressure on mining companies to pursue a green transition,and it remains to be seen how the industry will tackle the environmental costs presented by nickel pig iron conversion.South Africas New Energy

256、Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2828 The ESG performance of businesses can have a direct impact on societal wellbeing and research shows that an increase in company-level ESG performance can result in a positive effect on a countrys living standard in developed and emerging mar

257、kets.In a South African context,80%of the South African organisations surveyed by PwC have not yet made a net-zero commitment.Domestic organisations are lagging behind their global peers in adopting ESG goals and strategies.The risks associated with climate change have many social implications,inclu

258、ding unemployment,food insecurity,increasing health risks and migration.All of the risks mentioned also increase the risk for social unrest and upheaval,emphasising the need to evaluate the social impacts of climate risk,rather than dealing with it in isolation.Advancing ESG is supported by regulati

259、ons,however,pressure from a variety of stakeholders,including institutional investors and asset managers,as well as public interest groups,have and would continue to play an important role going forward.Climate change is likely to be the key focus area from an ESG perspective for the foreseeable fut

260、ure,not only in South Africa,but across the African continent.Not only will governments,regulators,investors,funders,and public interest groups continue to escalate these imperatives,but shareholder activism in this space is likely to increase significantly.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitio

261、nal Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 2929 6.6.THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN PERSPECTIVETHE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN PERSPECTIVE An analysis of the global automotive industry showed that all countries with automotive sectors have support programmes in recognition of the sectors

262、 significant contribution to the economy,in particular industrialisation,and South Africa is no exception to this.A well-developed manufacturing sector creates embedded jobs,deepens and broadens domestic value chains,advances technology,and supports skills development in a country.One of the attract

263、ions of South Africas automotive policy regimes over the past three decades has been its long-term vision and consistency.The stability in automotive support since 1995 has significantly enhanced investor confidence,and since the introduction of the Motor Industry Development Programme MIDP,Automoti

264、ve Production Development Programme APDP and APDP2,exports and capital investments in the industry have surged.The South African automotive industry remains a vital sector in the countrys economy,and it is interrelated with various other major sectors that depend on the success of the domestic autom

265、otive industry.6.16.1 Automotive policy evolutionAutomotive policy evolution The origins of South Africas automotive industry developmental path can be traced back to the introduction of tariffs during the early part of the 20th century.High tariffs were placed on vehicles,which,when combined with a

266、 rapidly growing market,acted as a magnet to a large number of initially foreign OEMs that established assembly plants in the domestic market.These operations were very small in international terms with correspondingly high unit costs.Production was aimed solely at the domestic market,and South Afri

267、can vehicle assembly plants were kept isolated from the global production networks of the parent companies,except as markets for completely knocked down CKD packs.Ford was the first motor vehicle manufacturer in 1924 to establish a subsidiary company in South Africa to assemble completely built-up v

268、ehicles from completely knocked-down kits.It was followed by General Motors in 1926.The coastal location of Port Elizabeth in the Eastern Cape allowed for the easy importation of components.In 1960,South Africa produced 120,000 vehicles,more than any other developing country in the world.In 1975,13

269、motor vehicle manufacturers OEMs were operating in South Africa and produced 39 models which were serviced by 300 component manufacturers.The GDP contribution of the automotive sector was 3,3%.Between 1961 and 1989,five distinct new phases of government support for the industry were identified.They

270、featured continued domestic market protection and a variety of incentives and requirements for increased local content.The South African-based OEMs had to adapt and respond to the mass-based local content requirements to avoid paying excise penalties on their domestic operations.Unintended consequen

271、ces of the programmes resulted in the domestic industry building the heaviest cars in the world.Phase VI,introduced in 1989,signalled a major policy shift through the promotion of automotive exports.The principal changes included a provision permitting exports to be counted towards local content,and

272、 a substantial reduction in local content requirements.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3030 6.26.2 Motor Industry Development Programme Motor Industry Development Programme MIDPMIDP and Automotive Production Development and Automotive Production Develop

273、ment Programme Programme APDPAPDP Since the introduction of the MIDP in 1995,significant structural changes have taken place in the domestic automotive industry.The sector has grown in stature to become the leading manufacturing sector in the countrys economy.The production of vehicle models has bee

274、n rationalised significantly to achieve economies of scale benefits in the domestic and export markets.Consequently,the complexity of the component sector has also been reduced.Exports have fuelled the growth of the South African automotive industry,and the supply of automotive components and vehicl

275、es to the world has grown from virtually no exports before 1995,to becoming a major South African industrial activity.In this regard,linkages with multinational companies,mainly to obtain project funding or the relevant licences or technology agreements to manufacture and export,were imperative and

276、the export growth was accommodated by major investments in best practice assets and state-of-the-art equipment,skills upgrading,productivity gains and upgrading of the whole automotive value chain.The following table reveals the key performance indicators and achievements of the domestic automotive

277、industry since 1995 through to 2021.Key performance indicators:1995 to 2021Key performance indicators:1995 to 2021 INDICATORINDICATOR PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE MIDPMIDP APDPAPDP 19951995 20122012 20212021 Broader automotive industry contribution to GDP 6,5%7,0%4,3%Average monthly employment by vehicle

278、manufacturers 38,600 29,180 30,697 Automotive component sector employment 60,800 70,000 78,874 Capital expenditure vehicle manufacturers R841 million R4,7 billion R8,8 billion Total South African new vehicle sales 399,967 units 630,542 units 464,493 units Number of passenger car model derivatives 35

279、6 2,659 3,077 Total South African vehicle production 389,392 units 538,600 units 499,087 units Total automotive export earnings R4,2 billion R86,8 billion R207,5 billion Number of export destinations 62 152 152 Total South African vehicle exports 15,764 units 277,893 units 298,020 units Value of veh

280、icle exports R0,9 billion R48,7 billion R138,3 billion Top vehicle export destination in volume terms China USA UK Value of automotive component exports R3,3 billion R39,9 billion R69,2 billion Top automotive export component category in rand value terms Stitched leather seats Catalytic converters C

281、atalytic converters Number of model platforms 42 13 10 Models with production volumes 40,000 units 0 5 5 Source:AIEC,Lightstone Auto Total number of vehicles exported under MIDP between 1995 and 2012|2 2,411411,277 units277 units;and Total number of vehicles exported under APDP between 2013 and 2021

282、|2 2,877877,631 units631 units.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3131 6.36.3 South African Automotive Masterplan South African Automotive Masterplan SAAMSAAM 20212021 -20352035 Aligned with its long-term policy certainty strategy,government,on November 23

283、,2018,approved the South African Automotive Masterplan SAAM 2021-2035 which was implemented on July 01,2021.SAAM 2035 calls for a major reappraisal of the automotive industry,both in terms of its scale and the way it operates.Targets include a doubling of jobs in vehicle and component manufacturing

284、by 2035,based on the 2019 level,from 120,000 to 240,000;and a more-than doubling of vehicle production from 2019 levels,from 600,000 units to 1,4 million units per annum by 2035.In addition,the average value of local content in South African manufactured vehicles is targeted to rise from 40%to 60%.T

285、ogether,it is hoped these initiatives will create the scale to enable mass entry into the predominantly white industry by black industrialists and entrepreneurs.The seven OEMs have established a R6 billion Automotive Industry Transformation Fund AITF to nurture black newcomers,mainly in components m

286、anufacture,logistics,services and motor dealerships.All these targets,however,were set before the inception of COVID-19.The APDP Phase 2 will operate within the framework of the SAAM and provides the incentive framework for the industry for the period from 2021 to 2035.The APDP2 is a Trade-Related a

287、nd Investment Measure TRIM.The TRIM allows safe and secure foreign direct investment FDI and allows duty rebates for the localisation of activities.The framework places local value-addition at the centre of any future support for the industry.The APDP2 shifts support away from production sales value

288、 towards local value-addition,specifically through the introduction of a volume assembly localisation allowance VALA,replacing volume assembly allowance VAA.The new-look APDP also increases the production incentive benefit from 20%to 25%on components.Component manufacturing in South Africa has been

289、less embedded than is the case in automotive industries in other jurisdictions.For this reason,government decided to adjust its incentives to ensure the development of automotive component suppliers,as well as to support those suppliers exporting into automotive supply chains elsewhere in the world.

290、APDP2 also now supports the export of SKD kits to regional markets,provided that the kit comprises a complete vehicle.The Production Rebate Credit Certificate PRCC was replaced by duty credits PRC that are tied to local value-addition at duty value.The Automotive Investment Scheme AIS cash grant for

291、 capital investments has been retained and the base has been set at 20%previously 20%plus 10%with investments in green mobility solutions at 30%.There will be no changes to the tariff regime in respect of vehicles.A significant change is that LVA for government incentive support has to be generated

292、from B-BBEE compliant companies,from OEM assembly operations back to the auto supply-chain.This is a phased-in requirement that comes into full fruition in January 2024.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3232 The SAAM 2035 vision is the achievement of“a gl

293、obally competitive and transformed industry that actively contributes to the sustainable development of South Africas productive economy,creating prosperity for industry stakeholders and broader society”.The vision of the SAAM can be described in four components.The first component is the improvemen

294、t of the industrys global competitive position.The second component is related to the industrys contribution to the transformation of the South African economy,and which includes employment equity through the greater inclusion of Black-owned firms.The transformation levels that have been set must be

295、 adhered to in order to participate in the benefits of both the APDP2 and AIS-2.The third component is related to the sustainable development of the South African economy,and includes aspects such as industry growth,employment levels,skills development,and environmentally friendly products and proce

296、sses.The fourth component is related to the shared prosperity created by the industry and includes the financial health and wellbeing of firms within the value chain,the fair remuneration of employees,and the holistic contribution of the value chain to the South African fiscus.A key summary of the S

297、AAM 2021-2035 objectives is as follows:Grow South African vehicle production to 1%of global production by 2035;Increase local content in South African manufactured vehicles to 60%;Double automotive employment in the supply chain;Improve industry competitiveness levels to that of leading internationa

298、l competitors;Transformation of the South African automotive value chain;and Deepen value-addition within South African automotive value chains.The automotive sector recognises that the SAAM vision can only be realised if the six development objectives are met.Achieving the SAAM objectives will requ

299、ire careful coordination and a close working relationship between government,the private sector and organised labour.Six industry development pillars have been identified as critical to the realisation of the SAAM.The six pillars relate to:local market optimisation;regional market development;locali

300、sation;infrastructure development;industry transformation;and the development of industry-required technologies and skills.Seven workstreams,chaired by the CEOs of naamsanaamsa member companies,have been established.The industry-required technologies and skills pillar has been divided into two separ

301、ate workstreams.The workstreams,feeding into the quarterly Executive Oversight Committee meetings,chaired by the Minister of Trade,Industry and Competition,support the execution of the SAAM 2021-2035 to grow the domestic automotive industry,and have gained momentum since 2020.South Africas New Energ

302、y Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3333 The APDP2 contains many elements similar to the previous APDP policy regime.The APDP2 consists of the following four pillars that drive the programme:Import Duty domestic industry protection;Volume Assembly Localisation Allowance VALA duty

303、 rebate mechanism;Production Incentive PI duty rebate mechanism;and Automotive Investment Scheme AIS cash grant.6.46.4 South African automotive industry kSouth African automotive industry key performance indicators ey performance indicators In 2021,the broader automotive industrys contribution to th

304、e gross domestic product GDP comprised 4,3%2,4%manufacturing and 1,9%retail.Classified as the anchor of the national industrial base and largest manufacturing sector in the countrys economy,a substantial 17,3%of value addition within the domestic manufacturing output was derived from vehicle and aut

305、omotive component manufacturing.The automotive industrys GDP contribution was higher in previous years but following the finalisation of Statistics South Africas comprehensive overhaul of the countrys national accounts,the automotive industrys contribution to the economy was revised downwards for 20

306、20 and 2021.The GDP rebasing and benchmarking exercise has resulted in an upward revision of the size of the South African economy,as well as changes to the composition of the supply and demand sides of economic activity.Overhauling the way in which the economy is measured provides a far more releva

307、nt and reliable measure of GDP.The revised GDP at current prices shows that the economy was 11,0%larger in 2020 than previously estimated.The export value of vehicles and automotive components rebounded strongly by R31,8 billion,or 18,1%,from the R175,7 billion in 2020 to a record R207,5 billion in

308、2021,comprising 12,5%of total South African exports.Vehicle exports increased by 26 733 units to 298 020 units in 2021,from the 271 287 vehicles exported in 2020,while the export value increased by R17,1 billion from the R121,2 billion in 2020 to R138,3 billion in 2021.Automotive component exports r

309、eflected an increase of R14,7 billion to a record R69,2 billion in 2021,from the R54,5 billion in 2020.The domestic automotive industrys export destinations increased to 152 countries in 2021 from the 147 destinations in 2020,with the export value doubling from 2020 to 2021 in the case of 32 of thes

310、e countries.Foreign direct investment is critical to propel growth and create jobs in the domestic economy.The automotive sector continues to remain one of the most visible sectors receiving foreign investments,with the seven OEMs investing R8,8 billion in 2021,the second highest annual figure on re

311、cord,while the component sector also invested a significant R5,7 billion in 2021.The following table highlights the significant social and economic contribution made by the domestic automotive industry in the context of the South African economy for 2020 and 2021.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Tra

312、nsitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3434 South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3535 In 2021,the local automotive manufacturing sector generated sales of approximately R309 billion,making it the fourth largest manufacturing sector in the country by sale

313、s.The industry paid R32 billion in formal wages in 2021.The industry supports an ecosystem of ancillary industries and indirect jobs in three provinces,namely:Eastern Cape,KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng 26%of manufacturing employment in the Eastern Cape;41%of manufacturing employment in Nelson Mandela Ba

314、y;27%in Buffalo City;13%in Tshwane;and 9%in eThekwini.According to the QES survey by StatsSA,the automotive industry contributed a total of R100,54 billion towards gross earnings in the formal sector in 2019.This equals 3,5%of total gross earnings in South Africa the 9th highest share out of 62 sect

315、ors of which:28%R28,47 billion was paid by the manufacturing of vehicles and components sector;72%R72,08 billion by the trade,maintenance,and repair sector.The tax burden on consumers is excessive considering that the amount of tax going to the Fiscus on a premium vehicle amounts to 42%while on an e

316、ntry level vehicle to about 19%.These fiscal taxes include a CO emissions tax,an ad valorem tax based on a sliding scale up to 30%,VAT of 15%,a tyre levy as well as a portion of the un-rebated import duty on vehicles.The 25%import duty on a passenger car and a light commercial vehicle bakkie can be

317、rebated under the APDP,but the majority of the OEMs are not duty neutral yet and still pay a portion of the import duty.The automotive industry was liable for the following taxes in 2018 pre-COVID-19:Company tax of total motor industry-R8,4 billion;Company tax of automotive manufacturing sector-R4,6

318、 billion;Company tax of motor trade,maintenance,and repair sector-R3,8 billion;VAT on auto manufacturing R15,4 billion 10,3%share of total SA tax-3rd out of 22 sectors;Customs duties of auto manufacturing-R13,1 billion-1st out of 22 sectors;Automotive industry tax-14,5%share of total SA taxes-2nd hi

319、ghest out of 22 sectors=R28,5 billion The automotive industry offers“high value”employment as the vast majority 90%of the jobs in the industry are“decent jobs”at a highly skilled and skilled/semi-skilled level;74,1%are medium-skilled and 15,4%are high-skilled positions.This is in contrast to farming

320、/agricultural jobs with the following skill levels:68%unskilled,29%skilled/semi-skilled;2%highly skilled.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3636 The direct value-addition impact of the automotive industry on the South African economy is multiple times the

321、level of support it receives from government,most of which is paid in the form of duty rebates,rather than direct fiscal costs.The South African automotive industry has a multiplier of 21,5 as revealed in the following table.Actual National Treasury cost and multiplier calculation This calculation i

322、s a narrow view as it includes the seven OEMs&OE supply-chain only.The actual multiplier is higher if OEM and supplier locally manufactured service and exported parts are added.Considering only the OEMs,the multiplier is 21,5 times and a credit to the South African Government vision in establishing

323、the APDP and APDP2.The APDP and APDP2 is a Trade-Related and Investment Measure TRIM.The TRIM allows safe and secure FDI and allows duty rebates for the localisation of activities.“A TRIM is an investment support measure and not a subsidy by any means.Many public commentators contesting tariff rebat

324、es,view it as foregone revenue that could be applied to other more deserving purposes.However,this is not the comparison that has to be made.The situation before and after the introduction of an automotive programme are two very different economic structures and need to be viewed as such”-Alec Erwin

325、 Ex-Trade and Industry Minister.The automotive industry has the potential to catalyse South Africas industrial development,hence,the ambitious targets set in the SAAM 2035.While these may not be fully achievable given the impact of COVID-19 and the weak performance of the South African economy over

326、recent years,the SAAM and its aspirational targets should remain critical guiding frameworks to drive decision-making in the automotive policy space.South Africas New Energy Vehicle Transitional Roadmap-The Route To White Paper 3737 6.56.5 South Africa new vehicle and NEV landscapeSouth Africa new v

327、ehicle and NEV landscape The South African new vehicle market reflected a robust recovery in 2021,increasing by 22,2%to 464,493 units,compared to the severely COVID-19 affected 380,206 units in 2020.The strong performance underlined the resilience and determination of the South African motor industr

328、y that has had to deal with numerous challenges over the course of the year,ranging from global supply chain disruptions,insufficient model availability due to the global semi-conductor shortage,as well as several adverse events negatively impacting the domestic economy.A close correlation exists be

329、tween domestic new vehicle sales and the overall performance of the economy,and the new vehicle markets performance was aligned with the strong recovery in the countrys GDP growth rate of 4,9%for 2021.Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles LCVs,which contributed 65,5%and 28,7%to the t

330、otal market,respectively,increased by 23,5%and 20,0%,from 2020 to 2021.The South African truck market,comprising 5,8%of the total market,increased year-on-year by 19,0%in 2021.The following table reveals the sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles for 2017 through to 2021.Sales of passenger

331、cars and commercial vehicles-2017 to 2021 YearYear Passenger Passenger C Carsars Light Light C Commercial ommercial V Vehiclesehicles Medium and Medium and H Heavy eavy C Commercial ommercial V Vehicles ehicles and and B Busesuses Total Total N New ew V Vehicle ehicle S Salesales 2017 368,114 163,31

332、7 26,273 557,704 2018 365,247 159,525 27,455 552,227 2019 355,379 153,221 28,012 536,612 2020 246,541 110,912 22,754 380,207 2021 304,340 133,078 27,075 464,493 Source:naamsanaamsa/Lightstone Auto In 2021,traditional and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increased to 678 units in 2021,up from the 232 uni

333、ts in 2020,while electric vehicle EV sales increased from 92 units in 2020 to 218 units in 2021.Affordability and limited choice have been noted as the main factors inhibiting NEV sales in the country.However,South African new-vehicle buyers will have a choice of around 20 battery electric vehicles BEVs by 2023.The following table reveals the diversity of drivetrain sales in the South African NEV